Darran Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 During the first lockdown my attention turned to Australia and I was posting flat racing tips every Saturday from March to November. What I had never really done before though was pay real close attention to Australian jumps racing, but discovered that there was money to be made from it. With there not being a huge amount of races a year, plus a relatively small pool of horses I thought that it could easily become another part of my betting armour. So I am going to attempt to cover the whole season and see if I can do as well this time around. The season starts with 3 races at Warrnambool on Monday morning. Race 1 (1.25am) A BM125 steeplechase gets the season underway and we have 5 runners. Ascot Red only had 1 run over jumps last season and he won the same race at Ballarat in August for the 2nd year running. Both wins were on a Heavy10, but he has gone close on a quicker surface both over jumps and flat. Has had a much needed prep run on the flat because his 1st up record is shocking and has a good chance here. Lucques tends to run well enough, but he does find it very hard to get his head in front. Zatagilo hasn't won since June 2018, but his last 2 jump starts last season were good 2nds and he has had a prep run on the flat. Newbury shows glimmers of promise, but didn't show a great deal last season so I'm fairly happy to pass him over. Steam Roller pulled up lame at Casterton on his last hurdle start in June. He has done well on the flat wince winning twice including a BM70 at Moonee Valley. He makes his chase debut here and trialled OK over them recently although he wasn't asked for much of an effort. He does have to give 7kgs to Steam Roller, but I think Ascot Red is the won to beat here. He's done well over fences and I think his experience could give him the edge of Steam Roller. I would completely rule out the two outsiders either although both do find it hard to win. Ascot Red 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred Race 2 (2.05am) An Open Hurdle is the 2nd race and there is very little between Goodwood Zodiac, Double Bluff and Rexmount in the betting. Goodwood Zodiac has shown little in 3 flat starts recently, but they were his 1st runs since May 2019. Did well over hurdles in 2019 winning 2 of his 4 starts. Double Bluff is another not seen over hurdles since 2019 having last run in the Grand National Hurdle when disappointing although he did win a couple of times that season. He didn't appear again until New Year's Eve and ran well on the flat in a BM78 at Moonee Valley last month. Rexmont was impressive in his maiden hurdle win at Coleraine on his only hurdle start last season. He has done well in 5 flat starts this prep winning one and he has also won a hurdle trial. Of the other two Sollerane wouldn't be out if it completely having run OK in a couple of good races at Sandown and Ballarat last season after winning a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April. I was quite taken with Rexmont's win last season and think he can progress into a decent hurdler so I will take him to land this contest. Rexmont 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill & Betfred Race 3 (2.45am) The 1st maiden hurdle of the season looks a pretty weak affair. You only have to look at the fact that Chenners, who has had 16 hurdle runs, is 2/1 2nd fav at the time of writing. He has shown on the odd occasion that he could land one of these at some point and he did win on the flat in January. The percentage call has to be to take him on though. My Kings Counsel just heads the betting, but he didn't look a world beater in his runs over both hurdles and fences last season. Instead I will take a small chance on one of the hurdling newcomers Hitch Hiker Jamie. The 4yo has only had 11 starts so is by fair the least exposed runner in the field. He looks like he will make a hurdler based on his trials. He won both of them and jumped well as well. I don't think it is a race to go overboard on, but to me he looks value at the prices given the front two of the market don't exactly set a high standard. Hitch Hiker Jamie 0.5pts @ 13/2 @ Betfair and Betfred Wildgarden, blueboy199, geoffrey craig and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 We move on to Terang for the 2nd meeting of the season where we have a maiden hurdle a BM120 Hurdle and an Open Steeplechase. Race 1 (1.50am) Although it wasn't a strong maiden hurdle at Warrnambool last time this doesn't look any better and I suspect the horses involved there will be here as well. I'm not sure why but the 3rd home White Heath is shorted in the betting than the 2nd home Hitch Hiker Jamie. I was on the 2nd last time and he ran really well from the front to be just denied by Chenners. Granted White Heath was only about 1/2L behind him, but I think Hitch Hiker Jamie can go one better and certainly looks the better value. High Rolla was a few lengths back in 4th and can go well again as well. Hitch Hiker Jamie 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 Race 2 (2.30am) This could be an interesting tactical affair as 3 of the 5 runners like to get on with it. Rexmont may go too quick for them all, but he faded very badly to finish at Warrnambool last time. He should have been quite fit from the flat so he looks a bit short in the betting to me. Goodwood Zodiac was last that day and the jockey said he shouldn't have held the horse up, but then if he rides him up with the speed here he might end up doing too much. So Belafonte also likes to make the running as well so we could see a strong gallop. If they all take each other on it might just set things up for the two hold up horses in the race Coleridge and Hierarchal who also happen to be the two outsiders in the contest. Coleridge finished 2nd just in front of Rexmont last time and he is fairly consistent so looks worth taking a chance with. Hierarchal was pretty consistent last season in maiden hurdles as well including when being just beaten by So Belafonte and on that form there is little between them. He got a deserved win at Warrnambool in July and has got himself fit with a couple of runs in picnic races (basically the Oz version of pointing but on the flat) including winning last time. Those two look over priced to me with the 3 favourites all wanting to make the running. Coleridge 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 Hierarchal 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Bet365 Race 3 (3.10am) Cheners makes his chasing debut here after finally breaking his maiden tag over hurdles last time and he jumped well in his chase trial last week. He does look under the odds here though. Zataglio, Lucques and Ascot Red were 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the chase race at Warrnambool and I think Ascot Red can reverse the form. The 1st 2 got a bit of an easy lead that day and Ascot Red ran like he would come on for the run. I thought when Ascot Red closed up at the 2nd last that he would go and win, but his run flattened out and he faded in the home straight. He is a better horse than those two for me and with that run behind him I think he can get the better of them. Ascot Red 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 Bedlam and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 27, 2021 Author Share Posted March 27, 2021 Good to get a winner on the board with Hierarchal winning at Terang last week. We now move to the Oakbank carnival over the Easter period and it is a meeting I would love to get to one day as it looks a great place to go racing. We have two races on Sunday morning a BM120 hurdle and a BM120 chase. Race 1 (3am) Cleaver comes over from New Zealand where he won a maiden hurdle in October on his 3rd start over hurdles. He has had a couple of prep runs on the flat and there is every chance the maiden win is the best piece of form here. Rexmont didn't lead at Terang which was slightly surprising, but he still had little left at the finish and was only 3rd. He might not get an easy lead here either as Creative Harmony was very keen in the maiden hurdle at Terang so there is a chance they could set the race up for a finisher. Mazaz won that maiden hurdle at Terang which wasn't a strong race, but connections think he has improved since last season. He likes a quicker surface so this will be his time of year and he might just continue to improve. Mr Coyne is fairly limited, but his best run of last season was at Pakenham on similar going to today and he had Mazaz just behind him in 3rd. He is the favourite at the time of writing which surprises me, but he has been running well on the flat so I would imagine that has plenty to do with it. I am going to make Cleaver the main bet, but I will cover Mazaz as there is a chance he could build on the maiden win. Cleaver 1.5pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 Mazaz 0.5pts @ 16/5 with Bet365 Race 3 (4.20am) Historic had a good win in August 2019 and had useful form around that. He won a maiden on the flat last March, but that was his only start of last year. He's had just the one trial this year in preparation for this and as much as I think he's the best horse in the race I just wonder if he might not be fully tuned up for it. My King's Counsel was a surprise winner at Terang and I think Chenners could reverse the form at these weights as he was beaten less than a length in 3rd. Macklemore is a stablemate of Cleaver's and he finds it hard to get his head in front. I also think he might be better over a longer trip. Newbury shows glimpses of promise, but is a frustrating horse. If Historic is fit 1st up then he ought to win, but I am going to side with Chenners who we know is fit and this is a race I think he is capable of winning. Chenners 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 blueboy199 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted March 30, 2021 Author Share Posted March 30, 2021 The Oakbank Carnival continues on Wednesday morning and we have a Maiden Hurdle and the Von Doussa Steeplechase. Race 1 (3.20am) Just the 4 runners here and it looks a like a match between Looking Around and Buckeye Nation and I am really keen on the latter. Buckeye Nation made his hurdling debut on the last day of the season at Ballarat and I thought he ran a nice enough race to finish 3rd. That came on a Heavy 10 and conditions wont be anywhere near as bad here, but he has run well on faster ground on the flat. That includes his run last week when he was a close 3rd in a BM58. He went wide the whole way as well so I think the performance can be upgraded. 3 days prior to that he ran in a hurdle trial here and I thought he did really well. I was taken with his jumping and Sunday's winner Mr Coyne won it so although it wasn't exactly a proper race it was still against a good horse. He is trained locally and I imagine this will have been the big target. Looking Around was 4th in the Maiden Hurdle at Terang and that looked a weaker contest than the Ballarat Maiden Buckeye Nation was 3rd in. He did managed to win a BM72 on the flat a year ago, but he's looked regressive on the flat since then. You always have to respect one from this yard, but I just think Buckeye Nation is in better form and I make him a strong fancy. Buckeye Nation 3pts @ 21/20 with Bet365 Race 4 (5.10am) The feature race features a good line up and includes Zed Em who is bidding for a hat-trick in this contest and is 5/5 at the track and Yensir who was a promising novice hurdler for Olly Murphy in 2018. Zed Em has been one of the best jumpers in Australia and New Zealand in the last couple of years although he wasn't quite at his best last season. He disappointed at Pakenham in April in his first run after coming from NZ and then was only 3rd on the Grand Annual although off top weight it was still a decent enough effort. As you might have seen on Sunday this is a very quirky track so the fact he handles it is a big tick. Also on ratings he has loads in hand at the weights they get to run off here. He has had a couple of flat runs at home plus a couple of trials once getting to Australia to set him up for this. Yensir won 4 hurdles on the bounce in the summer of 2018 and got up to a rating of 138 so looked a promising type. He had two trials in Australia in 2019, but he must have picked up an injury as he wasn't seen again until the start of this year when he ran twice on the flat, finishing a close 2nd on the latest start, and then has had a couple of trials since. Connections would have had plenty of options with him and I find it interesting that they have plumped for this race. Obviously we don't know if he will handle the track, but the flat runs suggest he retains his ability and he might have too much pace for Zed Em who is at his best over a longer trip. Getting Leggie won the Brierly Chase at Warrnambool in May, but the rest of his form wasn't as strong as that which is a worry here. Searaven pulled up on his only chase start last year in the Brierly, but he got badly hampered at the 2nd and then finished lame. His flat runs since have been poor though as was his trial here recently. On his 2019 form he would have a place chance though. Elvison is a likeable horse who won at Casterton last season, but this might be a bit too strong for him. Chances are this is between Zed Em and Yensir and I am going to side with the ex UK horse. Granted Zed Em loves this unique track, but he wasn't at his best last season and the concern is he is on the downgrade. Yensir could turn out to be a very good jumps horse in Australia and given connections have plumped for this contest over other possible races I take that as a big hint they think he can win it. Yensir 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 2, 2021 Author Share Posted April 2, 2021 It is the final day of the Oakbank Carnival and we have the feature race of the week The Great Eastern Steeplechase and we have the Harry D Young Hurdle which was moved from Wednesday due to a lack of entries. Race 3 (3.47am) It is the hurdle race up first and with Instigator coming out it does look a bit of a match between Warrnambool winner Double Bluff and last week's winner Mr Coyne. Britannicus wouldn't be totally out of it as he showed decent enough maiden form last season before he won at Casterton. He did struggle a bit out of maiden company though which concerns me here. Neither the races Double Bluff and Mr Coyne won were overly strong contests and both won pretty easily, but I thought Double Bluff was one to follow as he was very impressive on the opening day of the season. That was his first hurdle run since 2019 so there is every chance he can improve from that. Mr Coyne stepped up slightly on his hurdling form from last season last week and he had been in good form on the level prior to that. On form the others have something to find. Race 5 (5.07am) What a race we saw on Wednesday between Yensir and Zed Em and there was barely anything between them at the line. That was Zed Em's first defeat at Oakbank, but he was beaten by a very good horse so certainly lost nothing in defeat. They have a mile further to go here which suits him even better in my view and he is looking to land the hat-trick. I know it sounds odd for him to back up so soon but this isn't unusual in Australia and he's landed the double twice before. Spying On You won this back in 2017, but has been behind Zed Em in the years after that. He is the main danger though and he showed he's in good heart by winning a flat race here last Saturday. Ascot Red fell when looking like he was going to go close last time, but his form isn't up to Zed Em's and although he's getting 5kgs from him I don't think that is enough especially as he's unknown over the trip. Obviously the price is short on Zed Em, but I think sticking him and Double Bluff in a double should see us in profit. Double Bluff/Zed Em 1pt double @ 5/2 with Bet365 blueboy199 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 I didn't get round to previewing the two hurdle races at Hamilton last Sunday, but ex Irish horse Valac was impressive in the maiden hurdle and is one to keep an eye on. There are 5 jumps races at Pakenham in the early hours of Sunday morning. Race 1 (3.40am) This doesn't look a strong maiden hurdle contest and there is every chance it will go to the best of these on the flat Budd Fox. He has been in good form on the level and was 2nd in a BM70 at Sandown last time out. He trialled over hurdles last week and I was very impressed with his technique over the obstacles. He looks the one to beat for me. I'm surprised Referee is double figures. He had only won once prior to this season, but he has gone and won 2 picnic races. He had 3 hurdle runs in 2018 and was 2nd once at 60/1 but he has gone over fences the last couple of years and although he has yet to win he was 2nd twice and 3rd once last season. He has had a recent hurdle trial and he jumped well so going back over the smaller obstacles shouldn't be an issue. Now he's won again it might mean he has improved and he is certainly in better form albeit at a low level than pretty much all these. Manning Road has been running well on the flat, but she has shown little over hurdles so far. Budd Fox 2pts @ 1.9 with Bet365 Referee 0.5pts win @ 11 and 0.5pts place @ 3.2 with Bet365 Race 2 (4.20am) Saunter Boy is a very short price here, but he really ought to win. He looked good at Casterton winning winning on his hurdles debut and was then 2nd on the final day of the season at Ballarat when he got into a pace duel for the lead which didn't help him. He ran well at Bendigo on the flat recently when 3rd in a BM84. The Statesman was 9th in that contest and was 3rd in all 3 hurdles starts last year. He is solid enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he beat Saunter Boy. No bet Race 3 (5am) The feature hurdle race is the MJ Bourke Hurdle and it looks a really interesting contest. Runaway won race 2 on the card last year on the back of landing a maiden hurdle. He had 3 good 2nds after that including in the Galleywood and the Australian hurdle. On his last hurdle start in pulled up in July, but he had been in a duel for the lead and that didn't help him at all. He won a BM84 at Flemington in February and was 3rd in the Stoney Creek Cup last time. He has had a couple of hurdle trials since and has won both so he seems in very good form. Instigator broke his maiden tag over hurdles in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat but that was the race Saunter Boy got into a pace duel up front and I think he just got the best ride in the race rather than being the best horse. He has had 2 average flat runs this year. Robbies Star was 2nd in this last year and then finished close to Runaway when 4th in the Galleywood and 3rd in the Australian Hurdle. He surprised connections when winning a BM78 at Ballarat last week, but it showed he was in good form and this hold up horse might have improved from last season. Double Bluff looked very good at Warrnambool, but he jumped terribly at Oakbank last time. If he jumps better he could play a part in the finish. Hierarchal won well at Terang, but the way the race was run really suited him and it wasn't a strong contest. He has been back at the picnics since finishing 2nd. Riding High won the maiden on this card last year and then followed up at Warrnambool although he was a well beaten 7th at Sandown after that. He has had 4 flat runs and 2 hurdle trials this year and won a BM58 at Werribee at the start of the month. It looks to me like Runaway will get a fairly easy time of things out in front and that for me tips things in his favour. I want to cover Robbies Star as well as he has been close to Runaway twice before and clearly is forward as his flat win showed last week. Riding High would be next in for me, but it is a fairly open race. Runaway 1pt @ 2.4 with Bet365 Robbies Star 0.5pts @ 4 with Bet365 Race 4 (5.40am) There was a big question mark about if Historic would be fit enough at Oakbank and I don't think he was. He had another trial last week and he should strip fitter now and has a leading chance here. Jamieson was 2nd in a chase at Coleraine last year and although he was 5th of 6 at Terang he was only beaten 3.4L. Chenners was one place in front of him that day and was 2nd at Oakbank. No doubt he will run a solid race. Rexmont has had 3 3rds over hurdles this season and he likes to get on with it. This is his chase debut and I was impressed with how he jumped them in a recent trial. I think there is every chance he can improve for going over fences and he is the main pick in what isn't a strong contest. I will also cover Historic who should go close as long as he doesn't need another run for fitness. Rexmont 1pt @ 2.5 with Bet365 Historic 0.5pts @ 5 with Bet365 Race 5 (6.20am) The JEH Spencer Memorial is the feature chase on the card. My King's Counsel won that Terang contest I mentioned above and he hated Oakbank last time. He should do better here although that Terang contest wasn't a strong race. Lucques was 2nd in that Terang race with Zataglio back in 4th having been in front of Lucques at Warrnambook when winning. Lucques was again in front Zataglio at Oakbank in the Van Doussa when he came 3rd. I expect Lucques to beat him again and run another solid race. My Four Oh Nine has yet to win over hurdles or fences but has run some good races in defeat. He missed all of last year and has only had a trial and flat run last month when he got very tired at Oakbank. I suspect he will come on again for another run. I am keen on Napoleon here though who has been very consistent in big races in New Zealand. He has had 3 trials and 2 flat races in Australia which should have got him spot on for this. He also has a very good 3rd up record. I think he can come and beat the other three who have been racing against one another. Napoleon 2.5pts @ 3.7 with Bet365 gbettle and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 20, 2021 Author Share Posted April 20, 2021 It was a very good morning on Sunday at Pakenham with 3 winners from 4 races. Tomorrow morning sees a steeplechase and a hurdle at Murray Bridge.  Race 1 (4am) Granted you have to have a slight concern about Michelin's fitness especially as his rivals have already had jump runs, but I'm keen on his chances here. He has had 4 trials since March plus a run on the flat so hopefully he is fit enough to win this. He did win his last trial at Cranbourne last week as well. He looked pretty good last season as he landed a BM120 Hurdle at Sale before finishing 2nd to Flying Agent at Sandown. Michelin got his revenge in a maiden chase at Ballarat the following month though and then went on to finish 3rd in the Grand National. If he can show that form then he wins this for me. His best jumps form is on a heavy track, but he has won on a Good 3 on the level so I'm not so worried about the ground.  Mr Coyne is favourite as I type. He was well beaten by Flying Agent in a maiden chase at Warrnambool so has work to do with Michelin based on that. He ran well in two hurdle races at Oakbank wining the first of them and then 2nd in the H D Young. He is a player, but like I say I think at these weights Michelin has the beating of him.  Mackelmore is next in the betting, but he's yet to win in 8 chases and I don't think he can reverse Oakbank form with Pentelligentsia. He won really well that day and I thought he followed up well in the Great Eastern a week later when only 8L behind Spying On You and Zed Em. He's had a flat run since to keep him ticking over and although he finished last that doesn't worry me. He loves this ground and I think he is the main danger to Michelin and at his price I will have a saver on him.  Michelin 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred Pentelligentsia 1pt @ 7/1 with Betfred  Race 2 (4.40am) This does look Sweet Lullaby's to lose now the top one has come out. He ran OK at Hamilton last week when 4th to Flying Agent and this race is nowhere near as strong as that one. He had one flat run prior to that, but that was his first run since August 2019 and so he should strip fitter for that. His 3rd up form is strong as well and it is hard to see him getting beaten.  I was strong on Buckeye Nation at Oakbank, but a poor jump at the last cost him that. The winner has done nothing for the form since though and he would need the favourite to under perform to go one better. He has since run poorly on the flat as well. Aristocat showed nothing in one hurdle start last year and Castanea was well behind Buckeye Nation at Oakbank before failing to finish at Hamilton last week.  It could be argued that even at 8/11 Sweet Lullaby is value, but I will play the forecast instead because Buckeye Nation really ought to be 2nd especially as he will get his own way out in front.  Sweet Lullaby to beat Buckeye Nation 1pt f/c gbettle and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 Stakes so far are 24pts and returns are 24.3pts so currently just in profit ahead of the big Warrnambool carnival next week. Hendredenny and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 Really looking forward to the next 3 days of action at the Warrnambool Carnival with some cracking jumping action ahead. The ground is currently a Soft 6, but a greyhound meeting in the town was called off this morning due to rain so it should be softer than that come race day. The maiden hurdle to open the meeting has been divided 3 times and then Race 6 is the feature on day 1 the Brierly Steeplechase. Race 1 (2.20am) Field Of Light is currently fav for this and he is the best flat horse in the race having won a BM70 at Sandown in March. I watched his last trial and he was just fair over the hurdles so I am happy enough to take him on at a short price. Hey Happy can over race on the flat although he does look like he needs a trip. I thought he could have done a bit better with his jumping in his last trial. Lord Goldberg has been running well on the flat, but I didn't like his hurdling in his last trial. Once Were Lost was in front of Dewrinkler when 3rd on the flat last time and his hurdling did improve as the trial went on last time. I do think that Dewrinkler can reverse that flat form though. He ran a really good 3rd at Moonee Valley in a BM70 back in December so that was good form in the context of this race. I was really impressed with his hurdling in a trial last time and if he takes that into this race then I think he will go close. Out And Dreaming is the other one I like. He has had a hurdles start already and was a very good 2nd to odd on Budd Fox at Pakenham. If he can build on that then he wouldn't be out of this. Dewrinkler 1pt @ 6/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred Out And Dreaming 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Betfair and Betfred Race 2 (3am) Wil John currently heads the market and he is the best of these on the flat although not by much. We know he stays well so that wont be an issue, but he finished behind Annunciate in a trail and I didn't think he jumped as well as that one. Indeed Annunciate is my selection here. He did finish last on the flat a couple of weeks ago, but he was a good 3rd at Sandown prior to that. What is key for me though was how he jumped in his trial because he seemed to really relish the hurdles and it's probably the best hurdling performance I have watched in a trial this year. If he brings that to a proper race then I think he can win this. Under The Bridge has been running well on the flat in better races than most of these have raced in on the level. The problem for me was hurdling wasn't always great in his last trial. Ablestruck was a good 3rd on the flat on Friday and he was pretty keen in his last hurdles trial which is a concern although he jumped well. Just You beat that one in that trial and his jumping improved as it went on so he has place claims, but it is Annunciate for me. Annunciate 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair Race 3 (3.40am) Mawaany Machine was trained by Stoute in the UK and then went to Ger Lyons in Ireland before he went to Australia. He won a couple of BM 90's in Queensland last year and ran well at Flemington last week on his first start since August. He was decent enough in his trial, but he is easily the best flat horse running in any of the 3 maidens and he ought to win. The 2nd in Gravistas is an ex Mark Johnson horse and his only career win was for him on his last start for him at Newmarket 2 years ago. He ran OK in a BM 70 on Friday and his hurdling got better the quicker they went in his last trial which bodes well for jumping in a proper race. Jimmys Secret looks the only other one with a chance. He was 2nd on his last start in a BM 58 at Terang in March and jumped OK in his trial win. The favourite should win, but its a no bet race for me. Race 6 (5.20am) The big race on Day 1 is the Brierly Steeplechase and it looks a match to me between Flying Agent and Bit Of A Lad. Bit Of A Lad won this in 2019 and landed the Australian Steeplechase and Thackeray Chase last year. The thing for me though is in both 2019 and 2020 he improved as the season went on and my guess is he will need the run 1st up. All he has had is two trials last month since his Thackeray win last July. Flying Agent looked like he would develop into a very good horse this season after what he did last season as he looked very progressive. I wondered if he might need his hurdle start Hamilton last month, but he looked very good in winning. He looks set for a good campaign and this can be his first big prize of the season. He loves a really wet track and with the rain around he should get the ground he thrives on. This has clearly been his target whereas Bit Of A Lad looks like he's using it as a starting point and the rest don't really look good enough. Flying Agent 3pts @ 10/11 with William Hill blueboy199 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueboy199 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Quote Flying Agent 3pts @ 10/11 with William Hill Boosted to evens at Sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 2 hours ago, blueboy199 said: Boosted to evens at Sky Blimey Sky boosting odds on Aussie jumpers now! blueboy199 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 A good day on day 1 with 2 out of 3 winners and I think Annunciate just bumped into a very good horse. Day 2 sees a BM120 Steeplechase and the feature hurdle race of the week, the Galleywood. R4 (3.55am) Brief thoughts on the leading contenders  Michelin - Beat Flying Agent in a maiden steeple last year and ran with credit in two starts after that including a 3rd in the Grand National. Will love the ground and didn't run too badly on the flat last week.  Rexmont - Did it well at Pakenham on chasing debut last month and likely to make the running again here. Big question mark about him handling heavy ground though.  Riding High - Won a novice hurdle here a year ago on the backing of winning his maiden at Pakenham. Disappointed in only other hurdle start last year at Sandown. This year he has had 4 flat starts including winning at Werribee last month. He then went back to Pakenham and I thought he was a bit disappointing when only finishing 4th. Was given a very quiet trial here over fences a couple of weeks ago, but he did jump very well. Even so looks very short in betting especially as he has a terrible record on heavy ground.  Longclaw - Won a maiden hurdle at Sale last year and won well in two subsequent hurdles. Was a well beaten 4th on his chasing debut at Ballarat in August though. Had 4 steeple trials this time around and his jumping looked good in the last of them.  American In Paris - 4 2nds in Maiden hurdles but think it is mainly down into bumping into useful horses like Valac as he did last time at Hamilton. Jumped well in his steeple trial here a couple of weeks ago and he loves a heavy track.  Referee - Dropped away tamely over hurdles at Pakenham last time, but showed some useful enough form over fences last year and he could run well at a huge price.  So I think Riding High is worth opposing on heavy ground. I really fancied Michelin the other day when he was scratched, but I'm slightly concerned by the way he trialled here a couple of weeks ago. I will cover Longclaw as now he has had more chasing practice he looks like a more capable steeplechaser. The main pick though is American in Paris. That 2nd to Valac last time was a top effort and he seemed to love the fences in his trial. The ground is perfect for him and I think he can make a winning chase debut.  American In Paris 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365 Longclaw 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfred  Race 6 (5.05am) I think the favourite is worth opposing in the Galleywood as well. Saunter Boy and Instigator both started life in Europe and the winner is likely to be one of them, but I prefer Instigator. Granted Saunter Boy got into a pace duel in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat in August, but Instigator still won by 16L. That came on a Heavy 10 and I think Instigator will prefer underfoot conditions here. I was impressed with his win at Pakenham last month where he beat Robbie's Star and that should have put him spot on for this. Saunter Boy also won at Pakenham on the same card, but I thought he was pretty average in beating a lesser field. I would personally have them the other way round in the betting.  Of the rest Britannicus would have a good chance apart from the fact the heavy track is a big question mark. He was 2nd to Flying Agent last month which was obviously a good effort and prior to that he had won at Oakbank. Robbie's Star is pretty consistent and he likes a wet track so I can see him running well. The Midnight Shift is 2/4 over hurdles in New Zealand, but he is unplaced in 6 starts on a heavy track which would be the concern here.  Instigator 2pts @ 16/5 with Bet365 blueboy199 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 5, 2021 Author Share Posted May 5, 2021 A frustrating day 2 with Michelin winning well and not being on him and then Instigator should have won but for the fact he travelled so wide into the home straight. Hopefully the final day can go better where we have the Champion Novice Hurdle and the big race of the whole week the Grand Annual. Race 1 (2.15am) This looks a match to me between Valac and Eckhart. Valac has been a horse I have followed in Australia for a while and although he lost his way on the flat he looks like he could have a very good 2nd career as a hurdler. He looked really impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Hamilton when he beat American In Paris with ease. I was all expecting to be backing him for this, but I am actually going to take him on. In my view he is too short in the betting especially as he has never been on a heavy track before. Now I suspect the going will move back into the Soft range tomorrow, but I'm not even sure he wants a soft 7. He might well win, but I don't think he has quite as much in hand over Eckhart as the betting suggests. He was also very impressive on his hurdling debut at Pakenham last July when winning by 15L. That came on a soft 7 and he next ran at Ballarat when 2nd to Flying Agent. Granted he was beaten 19L, but given how good he is there is no disgrace in that. He's had 3 flat runs so far this prep and they have clearly been all about fitness, but he has also had 5 hurdle trials so he should be fit enough if good enough. He certainly looks to me to be the value play. Eckhart 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365 Race 7 (5.30am) Really looking forward to the Grand Annual as it looks a really competitive renewal full of quality. Here are my thoughts about the leading contenders. Zed Em - A 12 time steeplechase winner including winning this in 2019. In 2018 he finished 2nd to Gold Medals and last year he was 3rd. He wasn't seen after that until this year and over jumps he has finished 2nd twice in the two big chases at Oakbank over Easter. Likely to go well again, but I just wonder if others are better weighted to win. Bit Of A Lad - On the quick back up after running 2nd to Flying Agent on Tuesday. That was obviously a good effort given he was giving a good horse 5kgs. The problem for me is he has run in this race the last two years and finished a fairly well beaten 4th both times which leads me to think the trip is a concern. He is still only 7 though so he could stay better now and his jockey has come out of retirement to ride him. On balance I will oppose as I think he is short enough in the betting, but he wouldn't be a surprise winner. Gold Medals - Won this at the first time of asking in 2018 and then been 2nd in the last two years. I'm sure he will go well again, but he was well beaten by Ablaze last year and I think he will have to improve on that to win this time around and I am not sure he will. Spying On You - Having his 109th career start and arguably he is in his best ever form. I thought he was very good at Oakbank in winning the Great Eastern from Zed Em and that had come on the back of winning on the flat a few days previously. He's had another flat run since to keep him ticking over and I can certainly see him bettering his two 3rds in 2019 and 2018. Yensir - The ex Olly Murphy trained horse won 4 hurdles in the summer of 2018 over here before going to Australia and he went and won the Von Doussa at Oakbank on his first chase start. That was a ding dong battle down the straight as he just edged out Zed Em. He could easily win, but stamina has to be a big question mark as he hasn't been anywhere near this far yet and even if the ground was a Soft 7 I would still think it might be too soft for him. He's a good horse, but I just think he is tight enough in the betting with the stamina and ground concerns. Napoleon - He has been very consistent in the big races over in New Zealand and we know he will stay well as he was 2nd over 6400m in October. There was a chance 3200m was going to be too short for him at Pakenham last time, but in the end he outclassed them and in my view it was the perfect prep for this contest. He gets in here off a light weight and given he has that good form in NZ as well as no stamina or ground concerns I can see him running a big race. Those at the head of the market are all possible winners, but for me I am going to take a couple e/w at odds. Napoleon has proven he is a good horse in NZ and I think this test looks to be right up his street. He is down the bottom of the weights and that is no bad thing either. He is the main bet. I also want to cover Spying on You who might just be able to go better than his two 3rds in this contest before. I think he is in as good a form as he has ever been in and he is certainly over priced for me. Napolean 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred Spying on You 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred and William Hill blueboy199 and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 15, 2021 Author Share Posted May 15, 2021 With the maiden hurdle having divided 3 times again we have 5 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. Race 1 (2.05am) Holburt is odds on favourite at the time of writing and he has a clear chance. He has been running well on the flat this prep and his best hurdles run was at Hamilton last month when he was a 9.5L 3rd to Valac. Maybe he is improving, but it is hard to see why he should be so short on the rest of his hurdles form. As much as he is a possible winner I am more than happy to look elsewhere. Flying Mr Davis has been nibbled at in the betting and the jockey booking does catch the eye on his hurdles debut. He has been in fair form on the flat and was a good 3rd two starts back. I thought he looked a bit novicey over his hurdles in his last trial though and that concerns me. The Beehive clocked a decent time when winning a trial last month and he is quite unusual from what I have seen in Aussie jumpers because he has only had the 5 starts on the flat before going over hurdles. The fact they aren't hanging around to send him over hurdles suggest that is what they think he will be good at and he has a top jockey on top. Zoffany Rocket looks the one who is over priced to me though. He ran twice at Warrnambool finishing a close 5th on the Tuesday in a maiden hurdle and then an 11L 3rd to Valac in the Champion Novice 2 days later. Obviously that does strictly speaking leave him with 1.5L to find on the favourite, but that was a stronger race for me and I think Zoffany Rocket should be much shorter in the betting for me. I'd even argue he could easily be made the favourite so I will back him and have a small saver on The Beehive. Zoffany Rocket 1.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred The Beehive 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred and Betfair Race 2 (2.45am) Those of you with long memories might remember Aloft who finished 2nd in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy and won the the 2015 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. He was first sent over hurdles 2 years ago at Warrnambool and ran poorly, but he was found to have come back with a cut and the jockey reported that he ran flat. He then went into a BM120 at Sandown and was a close 3rd although his jumping wasn't always the best. He had 77 weeks off after that and has struggled on the flat in his 6 starts this year. He hasn't been foot perfect in his hurdles trials either. He clearly has the class to win this, but we are a bit in the dark as to how much ability he retains. Scriba is making his hurdles debut and he looked unlucky when 3rd at Donald last week where he was just in front of By Design who also runs in this and stayed on well for 7th. Scriba has had a couple of quiet hurdle trials so it's hard to get a proper handle on how good he will be, but I'm a bit surprised he heads the market. The one that appeals most is another import in Sir Edwin Landseer. I thought he ran really well on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago where he was just beaten by Out And Dreaming. He stayed on really well so this slightly further trip should suit and he is the pick for me. Sir Edwin Landseer 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 Race 3 (3.25am) I think this is the most interesting of the 3 maidens. Jimmy's Secret heads the betting and he stayed on well enough for 2nd behind an easy winner at Warrnambool on his hurdling debut and it suggests the longer trip will suit. He can win, but like the favourite in the first race he looks short enough for me and I am happy to look elsewhere. Marinated is just behind him in the market and he ran decent enough in a BM64 on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He trialled OK over hurdles last month just before that and he can go well, but again he looks short enough in the betting. I am slightly surprised that Ablestock is so short in the betting as he was only 7th on his hurdles debut and was behind another of his rivals here in the shape of The Delphi. I actually think The Delphi is a bet in this as he was 4th beaten 11.5L in what was the quickest of the 3 maidens at Warrnambool. His jumping wasn't foot perfect, but I thought he ran on well enough and he shouldn't be a double figure price on the back of that. The other one I like is He's All White. He made a very good hurdles debut when 2nd at Warrnambool last July. He was well beaten at Pakenham on his next start, but he was spelled after that so there could well have been an issue. He had a good hurdles trial last month and his two flat runs have been solid enough since. If he can run to the level he did on his hurdles debut then I think he has a very good chance. The other one worth a mention is Once Were Lost whose jockey made a strange mid-race move on him last time and not surprisingly he didn't have much left late on in the same race Sir Edwin Landseer was 2nd in at Warrnambool. He's All White 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred The Delphi 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred Race 4 (4.05am) This is a pretty weak hurdle although it is full of the old favourites. Double Bluff is favourite, but he's gone backwards since winning impressively on his seasonal return. He is good enough to win if he finds his form again, but I am happy to take on at short odds. Mr One Eleven is next in the betting, but I can't have him. Buckeye Nation did win well last time, but it was a desperate race and he was beaten by Looking Around at Oakbank the start before. He might get an easy lead again, but this is certainly the toughest race he's been in of late. I will instead take a small chance on Coleridge. He wasn't great in the Galleywood last time, but his other 3 starts this season were decent enough especially in context of this race. He also has a good record at Casterton so I will side with him. Coleridge 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred Race 5 (4.45am) The big race of the day is the steeplechase and again we have a favourite who I think is worth taking on in Macklemore. He lost his maiden tag over fences last time, but it was a really bad race and he looks beatable to me. Elvison was too keen in this race last year when 4th, but he did beat Lucques over course and distance after that. He had a slow post race recovery when he ran in the Von Doussa last time and I just wonder if he will need this after that effort. Historic has the form to win this, but he has shown little so far this season. The one I am keen on from an e/w angle is Lucques. Granted he doesn't win often and is only 1 from 19 over fences. He has however finished 2nd or 3rd 11 times and he is just so consistent. This season he has been 2nd 3 times beaten less than a length each time and then 3rd in the Von Doussa and 3rd in the Brierly. For me he is the most consistent of these and I would be hopeful of landing the place money at the very least. I am also going to cover Longclaw who I think will be better for his run in the BM120 at Warrnambool when he was 4th. Lucques 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred Longclaw 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365  gbettle, Wanderlust and blueboy199 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderlust Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Nice Forecast race 3!! Darran 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 22, 2021 Author Share Posted May 22, 2021 Going into Sunday's 3 races at Sandown the current stats are 49pts staked and 47.98pts returned so currently at a very tiny loss. On Sunday we have the Australian Hurdle and the Australian Chase plus a BM120 Hurdle to get the card underway. Race 1 (3.10am) I was really disappointed to see that Wil John had been scratched because he was going to be my main pick for this, but now I am going to side with Eckhart. I put him up at Warrnambool as he looked the value at the odds against Valac, but despite running well he wasn't able to live with him that day. There is no disgrace in that as he is a very good horse and his hurdling form from last season reads very well also. He looks a big price here as the better flat horses have been priced up at the head of the market although I wasn't overly impressed with either on their hurdling debuts. The horse who Mawaany Machine beat at Warrnambool was only 4th last week at Casterton so that form isn't strong. Budd Fox wasn't exactly impressive when winning at Pakenham just beating Out And Dreaming who re-opposes here after winning at Warrnambool. Obviously that does boost the form, but it was probably the weakest of the maidens that he won that day. Wolfe Tone would be the other one to consider as he was a course and distance winner in this grade back in August. He beat Instigator and The Statesman that day so the form looks pretty strong. That came after he bolted up on debut at Pakenham. He was then well beaten at Ballarat but that did come on a Heavy 10 and it wont be anything like that here. There is a chance he might need this first hurdle start of the season especially as it is nearly a month since he last ran on the flat although that was a good effort as he finished 3rd. Given I think the front two in the market are under priced I will save on Wolfe Tone as he is too big if fit and ready, but Eckhart is the main selection. Eckhart 1.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfair and Betfred Wolfe Tone 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Betfair and Betfred Race 2 (3.50am) Not surprisingly we have a few coming through the Galleywood into this. The Statesman was the winner that day which was a bit of a surprise and he is quite a big price again here. I felt though he got the best ride that day and he also took advantage of some poor jumping rom Instigator and Saunter Boy. Instigator had to go very wide into the straight which cost him the victory for me. I think he can reverse the form although he isn't the pick. I don't really fancy Saunter Boy whose jumping has not impressed in either start this season when 4th in the Galleywood and when beating The Statesman at Pakenham last month. Home By Midnight bolted up on his hurdles debut at Ballarat on a Heavy 10 in August and he has had 5 hurdles trials plus 3 flat runs so far this prep. He has been 2nd in a the Terang Cup and ran well when 7th in the Warrnambool Cup. I can certainly see why he heads the market as he could make into a classy hurdler, but I am going with Valac. If Eckhart does win the opener then it will be the perfect boost for them form and Valac has looked very classy in both his hurdle wins this prep. Crucially he will have his ground because it has been decent weather in Melbourne at the moment and they are having to water the jumps track to get it soft enough (they have to race on at least a soft 6). The slight worry going into Warrnambool was the ground being too soft but it didn't stop him and better ground here is going to be spot on. Valac 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill and Betfred Race 3 (4.30am) The Australian Steeplechase looks a match between last year's winner Bit Of A Lad and Michelin. Michelin is the favourite and he was very impressive in a BM120 at Warrnambool, but I think the market has them the wrong way round. I thought Bit Of A Lad ran really well when 2nd to Flying Agent in the Brierley and then he was 5th two days later in the Grand Annual. I don't think he really stays that trip and he came out of that race last year as well when winning this. He has to give 6kgs away in weight, but I think he is up to doing that. Obviously Michelin is progressive and has only had 4 starts over fences and clearly it would be no surprise if he won, but I will side with the bigger price of the two. Bit Of A Lad 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfred MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 My brief thoughts and bets for tomorrow morning's jumps races at Hamilton.  Race 1 (2.40am) Annunciate should win this. He jumps really well and I think he just bumped into last time. No bet though as he's odds on.  Race 2 (3.20am) He's All White faster winning time slower last 600m than Holburt. The Beehive was just behind in 3rd and could improve for that over this shorter trip. Zoffany Rocket didn't jump well enough when 5th in that race. The Poormanzabeel 2 placed runs in NZ last year over a couple of furlongs shorter. Only one flat run a month ago since last Sep with 6 trials. I think Holburt is worth taking on again and He's All White should be favourite for me. Also going to take The Beehive and Zoffany Rocket as reasons to think they might be capable of reversing form with Holburt as well.  Hes All White 2pts @ 6/1 with Bet365 Zoffany Rocket 0.5ps e/w @ 18/1 with Betfred The Beehive 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Betfred  Race 3 (4am) Hey Happy only 6th on debut, but had a wide run with no cover and wasn't beaten all that far. Sandman not beaten far in 3rd on debut. Switching To Win jumped well in trial win. Sandman looks way overpriced to me if he builds on that debut effort. Also going to cover Switching To Win.  Sandman 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred Switching To Win 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365  Race 4 (4.40am) Bad race but Dodge City won well last time and could have enough for these. I'm surprised he's not shorter in the betting.  Dodge City 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365  Race 5 (5.20am) Can see why American In Paris is fav as Longclaw has a few lengths to make up on him although he improved on that effort next time. Lucques put in a rare poor one last time but otherwise he is usually very solid. At the prices I am going to take Lucques to bounce back e/w.  Lucques 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred gbettle, blueboy199 and Offramp 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 Hamilton was a complete bomb out which was very frustrating. Hopefully I can bounce back at Warrnambool on Thursday with 1 Steeple, 3 Maiden Hurdles and a cracking Open Hurdle to end the jumps action. Race 1 (2.05am) American In Paris was impressive last time and is understandably a short price to win this. I can't really seeing Longclaw reversing form. Social Element is an interesting chasing debutant, but I'm not sure he wants this ground. San Remo does at least handle the ground and he can go well. No bet Race 3 (3.20am) No surprise that Karakoram heads the betting as he was only just denied at Hamilton last time. The ground would be a slight concern, but he looks the one to beat. I am going to take a small chance on Under The Bridge though. He didn't run very well on the flat last time, but I thought his debut hurdle run over course and distance was a good effort in a stronger race than this. The ground will be the same here as well and I think he can go well. Under The Bridge 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Betfred Race 4 (4am) Chances are one of the front two in the betting will take this. Wazuzu was beaten 11L into 2nd on his only hurdle run last August on a Heavy 10, but he gapped the rest and the form is decent enough. He's had 3 flat runs since April and run OK as well as 4 hurdle trials so he should be fit. I am going to go with Pueblo though. He was 3rd in the race Under The Bridge ran here in May and I rate that a better effort than Wazuzu's. He ticked over nicely on the flat earlier in the month and he can go two places better. Pueblo 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 Race 5 (4.40am) I am going to back He's All White and Sandman again in this contest. He's All White has 3 placings from his 4 hurdle starts and this could finally be the race he gets his head in front in. He was 2nd over course and distance last July on a Heavy 10 so back on a heavy track should suit. Sandman was sound enough at Hamilton although annoyingly finished 4th. Again back on a heavy track I think he can run well again. Wristband is favourite and he makes his hurdle debut on the back of a win in a 0-58 on the flat. He won 2 of his hurdle trail as well so has a chance, but he looks short enough to me. He's All White 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred Sandman 0.5pts @ 8/1 with Bet365 Race 6 (5.20am) What a race this is and I'm glad I need to be up for work so I can watch it live. Runaway is a classy horse who clearly didn't run his race at Pakenham in April. He's had 3 steeple trials since so you would imagine this might be a pipe opener ahead of going over fences. It's enough to put me off, but he's good enough to win. Out And Dreaming is 2/3 over hurdles and did it well at Sandown last time in a BM120. He's up in grade here and I'm not sure he will be up to it, but I certainly respect his chances. Home By Midnight was very impressive in his maiden win last August and he was the one who beat Wazuzu by 11L. He ran well in the Australian Hurdle last time and the testing ground clearly suits him. I love the way Annunciate jumps hurdles and I think he's promising, but he could well find this a bit tough at this stage. Any of those could win, but I am going to side with Inayforhay. He is 2 from 2 over hurdles and they both came here which I think is crucial. He ran really well on the flat last time which should put him spot on for this. Again he has had a steeple trial, but he beat Runaway in it and I think he can take this on his way to possibly going over fences. Inayforhay 1pt @ 5/2 with Betfred blueboy199, Bedlam and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Not in a good run of form with these at the moment which is obviously disappointing. Hopefully I can turn it around and we still have 2 months of the season to go. Wednesday sees us move to South Australia which a chase and a hurdle from Murray Bridge. Race 1 (2.53am) Historic is favourite here and if he can go back to his 2019 form then he has a good chance, but the problem is he has pulled up twice and finished last in his 3 runs this prep. He has been off for 5 weeks so maybe we are going to see an improved performance, but I don't know how anyone could want to back him at 9/4. Coleridge is 2nd in and is making his chasing debut. He hasn't been asked to do a lot in a couple of trials over the larger obstacles so it is hard to know what to expect. He's nothing special over hurdles but is solid enough. Pentelligentsia won a weak race at Oakbank, but hasn't really backed that up since. He ran 3rd in a similar race here in April and he was behind Searaven that day which shows how weak that form is because he's the outsider here. I know I have put up Lucques the last twice and he was a bit disappointing at Casterton, but he was then brought down at Hamilton so that obviously wasn't his fault. He'd been consistent up until that point and for me he has the best form this season in this contest. I personally would make him favourite so at 4/1 he has to be the pick. Lucques 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 Race 2 (3.30am) Spying On You has to carry 79kgs here which is just over 12st4lbs. That is based on his chase rating and he was very good in winning the Great Eastern at Oakbank in April. I put him up in the Grand Annual after that, but he finished last and has just had a flat run since then. The last time he was seen under hurdles he didn't do much so I suspect he's using this as a prep for one of the big chase races coming up. This is a weak race though and I think the favourite Looking Around can follow up his Hamilton success. He won by 6L and had Mazaz back in 3rd that day. Prior to that he ran a solid enough 5th at Sandown in a better race than this and had been 2nd at Casterton prior to that. He finished in front of Buckeye Nation that day and as much as he looks the main danger again I do think Looking Around can uphold that form. Looking Around 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365 Bedlam and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueboy199 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 7 hours ago, Darran said: Â Looking Around 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365 365 have shortened, but Sky have boosted this to 11/8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 4 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. The desperate form continued on Wednesday, but hopefully things can change here. Race 1 (2.15am) Don't think this is an overly strong contest and Devon Miss looks over priced to me at double figures. She seems to be getting better as her hurdling career goes on and I think the 2nd at Hamilton two starts back was a good effort and she was in front of Kapuziner that day. She was also in front of Wristband when 3rd at Warrnambool last time. Now that one was having his first start over hurdles so might improve, but there is no way that Devon Miss should be such a bigger price than him. Just Rolling is the favourite making his hurdling debut and he's been running well on the flat. Devon Miss 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill and Betfred Race 2 (2.55am) I thought this race looked a bit of a match between Jimmy's Secret and Scriba. I am going to side with Scriba who was 2nd on his hurdles debut behind Sir Edwin Landseer over course and distance in May where his jumping wasn't the best and he would have gone closer if he hadn't made a mess of the last. He's run OK on the flat since and if he can jump better for the experience then he's going to go close here. Scriba 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365 Race 3 (3.35am) Hard to see Eckhart getting beat here as his form looks a fair way above his rivals. He's long odds on though so no bet. Race 4 (4.15am) This is quite an open contest, but I am surprised that Historic is favourite again. He ran better than he had been on Wednesday, but this is a tougher contest. I was impressed with Police Camp over course and distance back in May and I would imagine that this has been the target since then. He's had a prep run on the flat to keep him ticking over and he's the main bet. I also like the look of Historic's stable mate Mapping. He won over course and distance on this card last year and he is one who needs at least 2 runs to get fit. He's had that having run at Hamilton and Warrnambool this month. I think we will see an improved performance here. Police Camp 1pt @ 17/5 with Bet365 Mapping 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Betfred blueboy199 and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 A good card at Warrnambool with 6 jumps races in the early hours of the morning. The poor run continued last week and it has been a desperate run. I was taking a bit of a chance in continuing with the Aussie jumps races on the back of 1 good season, but I will see how things pan out between now and the rest of the season. Here are my thoughts on tonight's action. Race 1 (2.40am) The market is dominated by two hurdle newcomers in the shape of Flickitova and St Arnicca and it is easy to see why as they have both been in good form on the flat at a decent level. Both should handle conditions although neither have been overexerted in their hurdle trials. Instead of trying to pick between them I will have a small e/w bet on Zedstar. He ran really well over course and distance when 2nd last month on his hurdles debut and if he builds on that then he has a solid chance of at least hitting the frame.  Zedstar 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill and Betfred  Race 2 (3.15am) This race is all about the hurdling debut of Norway who finished 3rd in the 2019 Irish Derby as well as winning a G3 at Leopardstown on his final start for Aidan O'Brien. His career in Australia has been a massive flop though. He finished a good 3rd at Sandown on his 3rd start here, but after that it he went the wrong way and is already on his 3rd trainer in Oz. He jumped well in a trial a month ago although wasn't put under any pressure and he has run poorly on the flat since. I couldn't possibly back him at the price, but even though he isn't in great form on the flat he is still a much superior horse to his rivals. He ought to stay the trip although ground this deep is an unknown. I'd like to take him on and Caliburn and Distress Signal look like being the most likely to take advantage if he did disappoint, but neither set that high a standard so I will leave the race alone.  No bet  Race 3 (3.55am) I've been desperate for Wil John to go back over hurdles after he was so impressive winning his maiden at the May Carnival over course and distance. The form has worked out well as well and he should be hard to beat here. The problem though is he is very short so unbackable in a single although I think he deserves to be that sort of price. The only danger for me is Home By Midnight who has run well in both his hurdle starts this prep finishing 3rd in the Australian Hurdle and then 2nd over course and distance last time to Out And Dreaming. I'd be slightly surprised if they weren't 1st and 2nd, but again the betting reflects that.  Race 4 (4.35am) Saunter Boy is odds on having won the Australian Hurdle back in May. He then finished a very good 2nd on the flat at Flemington a couple of weeks ago. The problem I have about taking the short odds about him is that he didn't jump well here in the Galleywood when only 4th and his heavy track form isn't great either. Instigator thrashed him 16L on a Heavy 10 in the JJ Houlahan Hurdle at Ballarat last August. Instigator will be one of the bets here. Not only did he finish in front of him that day, but he was also in front of him in the Galleywood. Now he was then a well beaten 5th behind him at Sandown but that was on a Good 4 and this different ground is clearly much more in his favour. Out And Dreaming has gone through the grades and deserves his chance in a big race, but I fancied Inayforhay to beat him over course and distance last time only for that won to fall at the 2nd. He was really well backed that day as well and he has won his other two starts here including on a Heavy 10. No doubt this will have been the target for him and I think he can beat the favourite with Instigator the saver.  Inayforhay 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred Instigator 0.5pts @ 15/2 with Betfred  Race 5 (5.15am) I was really impressed with Social Element when he beat American In Paris and Laylite over course and distance last month. Although he has to give the 2nd another 0.5kg here I don't see the form being reversed. The winner should improve given it was only his 2nd start since August 2019 and his first run over fences. The flat run prior to that at Flemington had been a promising one as well. He looks the best bet on the card at the prices. I am also going to have a place only bet on Mapping. He stayed on really well at Casterton last week behind his stablemate and he is clearly running himself into peak fitness. He is dropping down in trip, but the ground is softer here so that will help. I find it hard to see him win, but he can hit the frame.  Social Element 3pts @ 11/8 with Betfred Mapping 1pt place only @ 7/2 with Bet365   Race 6 (5.55am) The Dominator did beat Flying Agent at Pakenham a year ago by 5L and is weighted to beat him again here, but he's not repeated that form since and it does stand out from the rest of his chasing form. Flying Agent beat Bit Of A Lad in the Brierley by a couple of lengths and although at these new weights he could beat him, Flying Agent is just so progressive. He even won on the flat a couple of weeks ago at Bendigo so he continues to be in flying form. Bit Of A Lad is on the comeback trial after disappointing in the Australian Chase at Sandown and although he won this last year I suspect he will find Flying Agent too good again. The Flying Agent/Wil John double pays 1.43/1 with Betfred and that looks worth taking for me.  Wil John/Flying Agent 2pts double @ 1.43/1 with Betfred Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Back to South Australia and Murray Bridge on Wednesday morning with a chase and a hurdle. Sunday sees an all jumps card at Pakenham which should be a cracking day's racing. Race 1 (3.05am) Just the 4 runners and it looks a match between Historic and Pentelligentsia who were 1st and 2nd here last month. Historic backed up a few days later with a win whilst the winner ran respectably at Warrnambool. Now he's found his form Historic might be able to reverse form, but I don't have a massively strong few so no bet for me. Race 2 (3.40am) I like Buckeye Nation here. He's 2/2 over hurdles here having won a weak race in April and then winning the BM120 at the last meeting here. That was a slightly stronger contest and he clearly thrives at this track. He did finish behind Mr One Eleven at Casterton in May, but I think he can reverse that form now. Mr One Eleven is the favourite and he has been running solid races on the whole this season including at Casterton last time. He looks the main danger. Master Poet is capable of winning this, but I think he will need at least one more run to get him up to peak fitness. Mazaz is the other one in single figures and I don't think he will reverse form with Buckeye Nation from last time. Buckeye Nation 1pt @ 7/2 with Betfred LEE-GRAYS and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 The meeting at Pakenham on Sunday morning is the first time it has been an all jumps card and with the opening maiden dividing we have a 7 race card to look forward to. Hopefully it can be a profitable morning. Race 1 (3am) This is a very weak maiden hurdle with those having run over hurdles not showing a huge amount of promise. I thought Roland Garros would be hard to beat, but now he has come out I am going to leave the race alone.  No bet  Race 2 (3.40am) Light Pillar is an ex Joseph O'Brien runner who was 4th in the 2018 Queen Alexandra. He hasn't won in Oz so far, but has done reasonably well at a higher level than his opponents have been running at. His jumping was always foot perfect in his last trial when 2nd to Roland Garros. He could win this, but I think there is a bit more depth to this contest and I will take Pueblo against him to small stakes. He has finished behind 3 good horses when 3rd and 2nd in his two hurdle starts to date and although it would have been nice if he was an e/w price I still think there is a little bit of value in backing him to win the race.  Pueblo 0.5pts win @ 9/2 with Betfred  Race 3 (4.20am) I think this is the most competitive of the maidens and we go up slightly in trip by 300m for this race. Scriba has made two costly mistakes in his two hurdle races so far, but I thought he went backwards from his opening effort when 2nd to Sir Edwin Landseer. If he gets back to that form and his jumping doesn't cost him then he is clearly a player here. I prefer the other one at the head of the market though Zedstar who has been very game in defeat when 2nd in both hurdle starts at Warrnambool. The longer trip shouldn't be a concern based on those efforts and I think he is the one to beat. Caliburn would be a player on his Casterton 2nd, but he didn't back that effort up a week later and that would be a concern. Devon Miss would also be a player on her 2nd at Hamilton and 3rd at Warrnambool, but she was disappointing next time at Casterton when behind Caliburn. I am going to cover Mustang Harry at a big price. He's been too far back in his 3 hurdle starts so far, but I like the way he was staying on at Warrnambool last time and he did the same on the flat last time. This extra trip will clearly suit and if he can be a bit closer to the speed then that wouldn't go amiss either.  Zedstar 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred Mustang Harry 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred  Race 4 (5am) I'm keen on Eckhart here in this BM120 Hurdle. He was more dominant than the winning margin suggests at Casterton last month and he had Bakery Hill in behind in 2nd. I don't think he will reverse the form. Prior to that he had been 2nd at Sandown and had Mawaany Machine behind him in 3rd and again I think he will confirm that form here.  Eckhart 2pts @ 15/8 with Betfred  Race 5 (5.40am) Flying Agent cost us last time when getting turned over at $1.30 at Warrnambool. He usually thrives in heavy ground so it was a bit surprising to see that his jockey felt he did stretch out in the conditions when he came to win the race. Granted the ground was especially bad and he has a chance to make amends here back over hurdles. His from so far this prep had been really strong winning a BM120 Hurdle, the Brierly Steeplechase and a flat race at Bendigo. Instigator is pretty consistent and did win over course and distance earlier in the season. IT wouldn't surprise me if he won, but he just seems to be struggling against the better opposition this time around. Wolfe Tone is interesting. He bolted up really impressively in the maiden hurdle on this card last year and followed that up when winning a BM120 at Sandown beating Instigator. He usually takes a few runs to get going so he should improve plenty for his Sandown hurdle run in May when only 7th as that was just his 2nd start this prep and he's had two solid flat runs since. He should be ready to peak here.  The other one with a chance is obviously Norway. He ran in the Derby in the same year that Broome did and they both won races on July 4th. Norway won a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool and Broome won a G1 in France! Norway bolted up and clearly had a superior engine to the others as his jumping wasn't always great. This will be a much stiffer test, but it's interesting that connections are sticking him straight into a feature as they could have continued to go through the grades with him.  It looks a fascinating contest and clearly either Flying Agent or Norway are likely winners, but I prefer to chance Wolfe Tone e/w at bigger odds. He was so impressive here a year ago and he is sure to be reaching his peak for this contest so I think he is over priced.  Wolfe Tone 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred  Race 6 (6.20am) It didn't work out for Big Blue when connections sent him to Europe a couple of seasons back. He ran 3 times and ended up being only 19th in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. My feeling was he was too high in the handicap to ever do anything over here, but he does have plenty of ability and I think he can make a winning chasing debut. He's had plenty of trials leading into this and although he was only 4th in the last of them he wasn't asked for too much of an effort and he jumped really well. I suspect Alfie Dee will show more than he did 1st up after a tendon injury, but he might need another run. Britannicus wouldn't be out of it and Longclaw has been pretty consistent over fences so farm, but neither would have Big Blue's class.  Big Blue 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred  Race 7 (7am) The Mosstrooper looks a cracking contest despite the small field. Ablaze is one of the best jumpers in Australia and he took the Grand Annual and Grand National Hurdle last season before being beaten in the Grand National Chase. In the last couple of months he has had 3 trials and a run on the flat when he was well beaten. His last trial was a winning one in the same heat that Big Blue ran in. He did win on his first chase back last season over this sort of trip, but that wasn't a feature and he is more of a stayer. I just wonder if this will be enough of a test for him so I will oppose him here. The Dominator was a good winner of the Thackeray at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago, but the ground wont be anywhere near as testing here. You can't rule out Australian Chase winner Riding High either who did it well that day and has had a couple of flat starts since to keep him ticking over. The selection though will be Social Element who has really impressed me in his two starts over fences so far. He bolted up at Warrnambool last time and he clocked a quicker time than The Dominator did despite carrying 6kgs more. The ground will be better, but that shouldn't be an issue for this classy flat horse. He is the one they all have to beat for me.  Social Element 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred harrisman and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 24, 2021 Author Share Posted July 24, 2021 3 contests at Sale on Sunday morning Race (1.45am) Flickitova is current favourite and didn't have things go his way on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool at the start of the month. A faller nearly took him out at 2 out and before the race he got kicked. In the ground I think he found it hard work to get himself back into contention so he should do better here. Latin Beat was well fancied at Pakenham last week and ran well enough when a close 4th. They have the best form of those who have been over hurdles, but I prefer to look to a newcomer as I don't think either set a stiff standard. Tamarack is a useful enough flat horse having come from Queensland to his current yard. He ran well on the flat at Cranbourne last time and has trialled well over hurdles. He looks a spot of value against those who have already been over hurdles.  Tamarack 1pt @ 15/2 with Bet365  Race 2 (2.20am) Sivar and Onset were 2nd and 3rd behind Norway at Warrnambool at the start of the month and even getting within 10L and 17L was a fair effort. Onset went to Pakenham last week and was just beaten into 2nd place so the form does look reasonably strong. Those two certainly have claims, but I have been impressed with Roland Garros' trials and had been all set to tip him up in one of the maidens last week when he was scratched. Instead of going for a maiden he comes straight into handicap company for his hurdles debut. He reached a decent level on the flat and could be another on from the yard to improve again for going over hurdles.  Roland Garros 1pt @ 13/8 with Betfred  Race 3 (3am) Onset was 2nd to White Heath and he makes his chasing debut in this contest. He was game last week, but he's a short price favourite here so he seems worth taking on in my view. Zedman makes his first jumping start here having been in New Zealand prior and he beat the favourite in a trial a few weeks ago. Historic finally won again at Casterton 2 starts back, but it didn't go his way last time when he was pulled up as the rider thought he had gone lame. I don't think he would have won anyway and was a bit disappointing. Once Were Lost finished 2nd in that race and might be capable of beating him again. The one I am going to go for though is Historic's stablemate Laylite. He's been running consistently and although he was a 30L 2nd to Social Element at Warrnambool I still think that was a good effort as he led at a decent speed and as we saw last week he is one of the best chasers in Oz at the moment. He was 3rd at Casterton behind his stablemates Historic and Mapping the time before, but I think this shorter trip will suit him more than Mapping and he might be able to finish in front of Historic this time. He certainly looks to me to be the best value in the race.  Laylite 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (scratched) blueboy199 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 31, 2021 Author Share Posted July 31, 2021 Good to get a decent price winner last Sunday at Sale as we move on to a big day at Sandown tomorrow morning. There are 3 jumps races including the Crisp Steeplechase and the Grand National Hurdle. Race 1 (2.45am) It is the Crisp Steeplechase that we start off with and it looks a quality renewal. Maher & Eustace have plenty of strength throughout the card and could easily win all 3 races. I am taking them on here though with Social Element who has done us well so far this season. He is 3/3 over fences and took the big race at Pakenham in good style last time. He had Riding High back in 3rd and Ablaze back in 4th that day and although I expect Ablaze to do better here I just wonder if he might need another start to get up to full fitness. He had nothing at the end of the race at Pakenham and although the step up in distance will help, Social Element was hardly stopping and I do think he will improve for the step up in trip as well. Big Blue will come on again after winning the maiden chase at Pakenham which was his first jumps start since last year's Cheltenham Festival. He wouldn't be a surprise winner. Flying Agent has under performed the last twice now, but he will be a big player if able to find his best form again. Social Element 1pt @ 6/4 with Betfred Race 4 (4.45am) Tamarack backs up here after winning for us last week and he was visually impressive after being well backed. It wasn't a strong race though and on the clock Sivar was the more impressive winner at Sale last week when he took out the 0-114 contest. He backed up the promising 2nd to Norway on his hurdles debut and I think he has a chance in this. Mawaany Machine is currently odds on having beaten Karakoram at Pakenham last time. Strictly speaking at these weights Karakoram should reverse the form, but I think the winner had more up his sleeve that day and can withhold the form. I don't think he is any value however so I am happy to take him on. The ex Joseph O'Brien Light Pillar was really impressive on his hurdles debut at Pakenham and his final 600m was nearly 4 seconds quicker than Mawaany Machine. I'm guessing Pateman had the choice, but I think he has chosen wrong as Light Pillar looks a really promising hurdler and impressed me more than Mawaany Machine has this season. I will also cover Sivar as he looks over priced. Light Pillar 2pts @ 11/4 with Betfred Sivar 0.5pt @ 9/1 with Betfred Race 5 (5.25am) What a race we have for the Grand National Hurdle although the 3 horses in single figures all come from the Maher & Eustace yard. Saunter Boy heads the beating having taken the Australian Hurdle here back in May although this is over another 300m. He did it well that day and you can hardly knock him on what he has done since. He has finished 2nd and 3rd in two good flat race at Flemington and in between he landed the Kevin Lafferty at Warrnambool beating Inayforhay by 7L. He sets a stiff standard, but his stablemates Norway and Wil John have made very promising starts to their hurdle careers. Norway has won both hurdle starts by 10L so far and was really impressive at Pakenham last time. We know he has the flat class from his time in Ireland and Britain and going over hurdles has clearly perked him up as he had lost his way. I am however going to go with the current 3rd choice in the betting Wil John. For me he has been the most impressive winner of the various maiden hurdles this season when he won at the Warrnambool Carnival. He then won on the Flat at Bendigo before bolting up back at Warrnambool last month. The 2nd that day was Karakoram so he has helped frank the form since. He steps up to 4200m for the first time over hurdles, but he finished 3rd over 4600m on the flat last November so this extra trip if anything might see some more improvement. He gets weight from the other two as well and as much as either Saunter Boy or Norway could win, I am going to take Wil John to back up the high regard I hold him in. Wil John 2pts @ 3/1 with Betfred Bedlam and blueboy199 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 Is there much difference compared to the British/Irish jumps ? And where do you get the relevant information for Australian jumps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 31, 2021 Author Share Posted July 31, 2021 2 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Is there much difference compared to the British/Irish jumps ? And where do you get the relevant information for Australian jumps If you are talking in quality then Big Blue's exploits over here probably sums up what sort of level they are running to. Having said that he probably never had his ideal conditions over here and I think there are better horses than him. Also if Norway had gone hurdling over in Ireland then you would think he would have been able to win races as he has done in Oz. Most of the races are over 2m as well and I think they could do with more variations of race distance. Racing.com is my go to place for all Australian racing. They cover Victoria and South Australia which are the only two states which still have jumps racing in Oz. They have all the form you need as well as replays and the footage from trials which is great to see how well newcomers have taken to the jumping game. It's all free as well and once you sign up you can also watch the live action for free as it is also a TV channel in Oz. gbettle and Villa Chris 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted August 7, 2021 Author Share Posted August 7, 2021 Good day last Sunday with two very impressive performances from Social Element and Wil John. No doubt both will be back out at Ballarat at the end of the month for the big end of the Victorian jumps season. This Sunday morning we were due to be at Casterton, but the meeting was transferred to Coleraine on Friday which is a shame as it is always good watching the hedge fences at Casterton. There are 4 jumps races on the card Race 1 (3.55am) We start with the steeplechase on the card and my feeling is that the winner of the race will depend on if The Dominator can cope with his hefty weight and this slightly longer trip than he has been racing over. He fully deserves top weight though on what he has achieved this year. Two starts back he landed the Thackeray at Warrnambool beating Police Camp, who takes him on again here, by 5L. He then was 2nd in the Mosstrooper to Social Element which despite being beaten 9L was still a top run especially as he was carrying 69kg to Social Element's 66.5kg. The one concern I did have about him was if he would stay the 3800m trip as I suspect that would be as far as he wants to go, but the change of venue has meant a new trip 200m shorter which means confidence is increased. I don't think Police Camp will reverse the form and he was behind the 3 Pateman horses over course and distance back in June. Historic won that race and after a blip at Murray Bridge he won at Sale. He clearly has a chance here getting the weight from The Dominator, but he wouldn't be as classy so I'm not sure even the weight will be enough. Mapping was 2nd and Laylite was 3rd that day and I would have been tempted by Mapping if the meeting was still at Casterton, but I will leave him alone with the venue change. The Dominator 3pts @ 2.2/1 with Bet365 Race 2 (4.35am) Marinated is a short price favourite here but to me that seems more based on the fact he won on the flat at Donald last week rather than his hurdling form. Granted this race isn't strong and he was a close 3rd at Casterton in June, but that form doesn't warrant him being so short in my view so whilst he can win he is worth taking on. Onset has had 6 hurdles starts but she does seem to be improving. Even tough she was 17L behind Norway in 3rd two starts back that clearly was still a respectable effort. The horse in 2nd that day was Sivar and she won the handicap at Sale last month which Onset was 3rd in last time. 2 starts back at Pakenham he only just missed out when 2nd in a maiden. She ought to be fighting out the finish if she carries on the same form she has shown of late. Onset 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 Race 3 (5.15am) Hakuna Matata is favourite for this and he was 2nd in a maiden hurdle in New Zealand back in May. Obviously hard to know how that form is going to stack up here, but he has finished 2nd on both flat starts since coming to Oz. I am going to stick to the Aussie jumping form though. Not Usual Dream ran his best hurdle race yet last time at Sale when 2nd to Tamarack and obviously that form was boosted when he won at Sandown last week. He has Pateman aboard so that is a big plus and if he backs up the Sale performance that will be good enough to win this. I am also going to back Californiafirebird. He went off a single figure price on hurdling debut in June but was a big disappointment that day. He showed big improvement at Pakenham last time when 3rd one place behind Onset so if he does well in the previous race then that will be a big boost to his form. Not Usual Dream 1pt @ 3.6/1 with Bet365 Californiafirebird 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365  Race 4 (5.55am) This is a pretty weak contest and I can only really make a case for two of them. Eckhart ran very poorly at Pakenham last time when he was pulled up, but that can't have been his running as the rest of his form is good and that was the only time in 6 hurdle starts that he wasn't in the first two. He was only a couple of lengths behind Valac at Warrnambool in May, he then was beaten a length in a BM120 at Sandown before winning one of these at Casterton by 3L. He has won on heavy so the ground shouldn't be an issue and he has the best form in the race. The other one for me who can win is Karakoram. He's been pretty consistent over the last couple of months, winning a maiden at Warrnambool in June and finishing 2nd 3 times. Granted one of those was 20L behind Wil John, but there is nothing in the same league as him running in this. The one concern is he only ran OK last week at Sandown and how he will cope on the back up here, but this is a weaker race than that one so if running up to form he should go close. If those two disappointed then I wouldn't have a clue who would win this. So Able makes his hurdling debut at 10 although he ran OK at Caulfield on the flat last time so could be up to this. Alfie Dee might be able to show his New Zealand form here as he works his way back up to fitness. Eckhart 2.5pts @ 1.25/1 with Bet365 Karakoram 1pt @ 3.4/1 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oburro Posted August 7, 2021 Share Posted August 7, 2021 Only racecourse ive been too in Australia was Eagle Farm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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