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Pirate53

Winter AW System

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Hi guys,

Have been using an AW system that I've come up with since 15th November. Today there are 3 qualifiers BUT they must not go off as fav.

They are:

Ling 12.10 Muhajjel

Ling 12.45 Captain Pugwash

Ling 14.55 Corazon Espinado

Bets are placed at BFSP as unable to tell if fav or not prior. More info to follow.

 

Edited by Pirate53

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3 No Bets today. All started favourite.

The system follows the following logic: 26% of favs in AW H/caps win. Therefore 74% lose. We want to be in the 74%. Horses aged 2 and 3 only are considered - they should mostly be improvers. Handicaps and Nurseries only. Odds range 2/1 to 10/1. The jockey must be the same as the previous race contested. There are a few other filters, but I have to keep some secrets!!

Expect losing runs of 12 or so. System to be used Nov-March. November 27 Bets, 7 wins, +£97.54 (£5 stakes) 

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Todays selections:

Lingfield 11.30

Joegogo, Montague.

Lingfield 12.35

Rapid Rise

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11.

Edited by Pirate53

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Todays Sels:

Lingfield 11.40

Mach One, Enigmatic, Spirit Of Sarwan

Lingfield 12.40

Carp Kid

Lingfield 14.15

Mister Freeze

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11.

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Yesterdays result: Mach One No Bet (Fav) 2 losers in race. Carp Kid No Bet (15/8). Mister Freeze lost. Total -3pts,

Total Staked 5

Returns 0

Todays:

Southwell 12.35 Samovar, Bad Dog

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11.

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3 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Yesterdays result: Mach One No Bet (Fav) 2 losers in race. Carp Kid No Bet (15/8). Mister Freeze lost. Total -3pts,

Total Staked 5

Returns 0

Todays:

Southwell 12.35 Samovar, Bad Dog

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11.

samovar a tad unlucky there,only a morris drive beat it

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Hi Birchy. Fair Question. Its not usually difficult as the prices generally are around 4/1 to 7/1. I open the Sporting Life live shows page,(tab is on the racecard) this gives me the SP up to race start (more use when its drifting and you're worried it'll go too high.)

Yesterdays was fairly short but never gonna challenge for favouritism so the only thing to watch was did it go below 3. It didn't so was a bet. It's a bit more faffing around than a set and forget system but not hard when you are used to it.

No selections today. No 3 yr old races at all and no 2yo Nurseries.

Yesterdays result: -1 pt.

Total Staked 8

Returns 0.

 

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2 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Hi Birchy. Fair Question. Its not usually difficult as the prices generally are around 4/1 to 7/1. I open the Sporting Life live shows page,(tab is on the racecard) this gives me the SP up to race start (more use when its drifting and you're worried it'll go too high.)

Yesterdays was fairly short but never gonna challenge for favouritism so the only thing to watch was did it go below 3. It didn't so was a bet. It's a bit more faffing around than a set and forget system but not hard when you are used to it.

No selections today. No 3 yr old races at all and no 2yo Nurseries.

Yesterdays result: -1 pt.

Total Staked 8

Returns 0.

 

You've got a long wait for the next nursery - late June or early July.

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Todays Sels:

Kempton 20.45 Montague, Our Man In Havana

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

Edited by Pirate53
12.05 Not a qualifier...missed a filter in my haste!

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Yesterday -1pt Papa Stour No Bet Fav. Samovar No Bet (14/1)

Staked 12

Returns 0

Today: Ling 15.25 Swift Fox.

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

 

Edited by Pirate53
Added todays

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Yesterday -1pt

Staked 14

Returns 0

Todays:

Newcastle 17.45 Tough Remedy, The British Lion, Becker

Newcastle 18.15 Wiff Waff

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

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A winner at last!!

Yesterday +3.03 pts

Staked 16

Returns 4.03

Todays:

Wolves 20.45 Joegogo, Gift In Time, Our Man In Havana

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

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No luck yesterday -3pts

Total Staked 19

Returns 4.03

Todays:

Southwell 13.20 Good Impression, Istanbul Pasha, Ray Purchase

Not if fav, shorter than 2/1 or greater than 10/1. BFSP can be higher than 11 provided ISP is not higher than 11

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