yossa6133

Debut is tomorrow at Cork [6.35pm]
Opening odds of 12-1 were daft...now 11-4

5.05
Not sure I have ever seen a drift as big as Gustave Mahler's ahead of this race. I know some wanted to take him on anyway because of the track and the ground, but I don't think either of those things got him beat. In my view he just wasn't fit and I would suggest that people knew that and thus the huge drift. At the top of the hill he looks the winner and was travelling the best. Then at 3 out he stops pretty quickly and ends up finishing last of the 5 to complete. That is why I think it was fitness rather than anything else. Still it was great to see Sam Cavallaro win the race for the 3rd time and as Martin said in commentary surely the race should be named after him now. His trainer mentioned to me on Twitter that if he is in good health next year then there is every chance we will see him bid for a 4th win at the age of 14. Saffron Wells ran on well, but found the trip on the short side in the end. Overall though it was a weak contest.
5.40
Great to get this one right and was very close to landing the first 3 out of the 4 horses I put up. I mentioned in the preview that there looked to be very little between Latenightpass and Salvatore on form so the difference in prices made no sense. He looked like he was going to win very easily, but tired at the last and ended up only winning by 1/2L in the end although he did pick up again once the 2nd came to him so I think he was idling a bit as well. He is only 6 so there could be plenty more to come from him and he looks progressive. Captain Mcginley ran really well in 2nd and amazingly drifted out to 14/1 in the end. He looks like he could stay even further than this. How on earth Salvatore was sent off at 13/8 I will never know. He was backed in on track from 100/30 and it was some gamble, but as much as he had a chance I'm not even sure any horse deserved to be 100/30 let alone 13/8. He never looked like winning although to be fair did plug on for 3rd in the end. It sounds like the trainer considered headgear and the changed his mind, but I suspect we will see him in head gear at some point. He reminds me of Optimised from the same yard and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in the 4miler next year. Sixteen Letters was held up but traveled really nicely into the race and looked a possible winner only to tire badly on the run-in. He was well backed and he can pick up a Hunter Chase when stamina is less of an issue. Coco Live ran better than I thought he would, but that suggests he really ought to have won at Taunton. Of the two Pennock horses Laser Beam came in for strong support, but he jumped really poorly. If he turns up at Fontwell or Stratford though I wouldn't be wanting to write him off as clearly the yard think he is capable. Tricky Silence was disappointing and never got involved.
6.15
Connections of Marcle Ridge wanted to see if he was a possible Foxhunter horse and at least he proves he handles the track. For all that he bolted up though it was a very weak contest and you know if Kit Barry has finished 2nd that you haven't beaten much. He is clearly progressive though, but I would be surprised if he wins a Foxhunter. Moscow Prices didn't jump great and might not have liked the ground. Alfstar was a surprisingly big price as the rain should have helped his chances, but he bled so had to be pulled up.
6.50
I would have been very annoyed if Caryto Des Brosses had won this given how highly I rated him. As I said in the preview though I just couldn't see how he could beat Hazel Hill, but he was so close to doing so. Hazel Hill clearly wasn't at his best and he jumped out to his right on occasions and the Foxhunter win must have left a mark. Even so it was a really gusty effort to get the better of a fantastic duel which was certainly the highlight of the night. I think this will be it for the season as I don't think he will enjoy Stratford and if he did go there I would take him on. I really hope the 2nd goes to Stratford though as the race looks right up his street. We already know he handles the track and we know now he stays. As long as he recovers from this OK he will have a huge chance should he turn up. I know we are a long way from the race, but if you asked me right now for the 2020 Foxhunter winner I would say Caryto Des Brosses. Virak was a bit disappointing in 3rd, but it seems he is better bossing lesser rivals now. Master Baker never got close and they should have run him in the opener although given the way he went he might well have lost that as well.
7.20
The on regret I have is is not putting up Kalabaloo as a bet in the outright market as Theatre Territory wasn't overly impressive at Exeter and despite travelling really well into the race she duly found little for pressure again. The winner bolted up and looks progressive herself and although probably didn't have to do much to beat in the end she is clearly useful. God knows what they are going to do with the 2nd now, but I think they may as well retire her now. Absainte ran well given she hadn't achieved such a high level as the two in front of her.
7.50
Wonderful Charm was not surprisingly withdrawn here, but the other two picks finished 1st and 2nd as Southfield Theatre held off Optimised. Both were always up near the pace although the winner dropped back a little and looked beaten at one stage. Then of a sudden coming down the hill he picked up again and took full advantage of a gap up the rail on the turn for home. He stayed on gamely to hold off the 2nd who has run really well in defeat. Sam Red put in a better effort than last time to finish 3rd and he clearly likes Cheltenham. Haymount looked a favourite to take on prior to the race and although he was always close to the pace at the same time he never really looked like winning. Teeton Kato travelled really well into the race having been held up and looked like he might win only for him to empty quickly once getting into 2nd at 3 out. He would be interesting over a shorter trip though. I thought Changeofluck was given a poor ride. I thought she would be riding him to stay on past beaten horses, but instead she decided to have on the pace and out very wide. A more sensible ride might have seen him finish the race in the top 8 at the very least. Mendip Express showed nothing and ought to be retired although Master Sunrise showed more than his first two starts of the season. He was traveled much more kindly than in either of those two races and only dropped out once his stamina gave out. He comes back onto my radar after this though.
8.20
It was very dark for this race and conditions would have been barely raceable. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I bet connections of Risk A Fine wished they hadn't have run him in this in the end. I think they thought they might get away with is and to be honest he did beat all bar the winner easily just the winner had way too much. I think a combination of the track, trip and ground didn't suit Risk A Fine in the end and he bumped into a winner who had thrived in his new yard. He clearly was back to somewhere near his best and given he stays well he was able to outstay the rest in style. I would have said that he could have been a Stratford Foxhunters contender, but for some reason connections decided to run him in a point at Mollington on Monday where he didn't show much zest before departing at the 7th. It was a strange move to run him so soon. As for the 2nd I would be tempted to run him in the handicap Hunter Chase at Stratford as I think he would outclass them despite the big weight he would have to carry. The rest didn't really show much at all.
Punchestown
What a performance from Caid Du Berlais. He never looked in any danger and loved it out in front jumping for fun. We have seen some great performances so far this season, but this could well have topped them all, because he beat out of sight some useful horses. Clearly Cheltenham wasn't his running and no doubt he will be back as an 11yo bidding for the hat-trick. Stand Up And Fight was well backed, but ended up being pulled up. I did love Jonathon Neesom's dig at Burning Ambition on RacingTV as yet again he didn't find an awful lot off the bridle although he was best of the rest. What it did prove is that the British Hunter Chaser's certainly have the upper hand on the Irish this season which is great to see.
Total staked 26.50
Total back 40.35
Profit 13.85
(NB I settled Southfield Theatre at SP which was 7/2)

What a gamble on Copper Knight 3/1 > 5/4
4 NR's but all rags
Just needs to get out of the stalls in pole position now

It was a shame that we had a couple of non-runners leading to a R4 which should have been 20-30p depending on what prices the individual bookmaker had at the time on the two that came out. I say its a shame because I don't think either horse would have won and we had one of them covered anyway. Still it was a cracking result as Asockastar proved the market was totally wrong. I still can't believe Mr Mix actually went off favourite given the form was out there for all to see that he was going to struggle to beat him. I have been right about that Warwick race being a poor one to follow form wise and just because the race was won by Hazel Hill doesn't make it a strong race. He was given a bit of an odd ride really but was beaten when the jockey dropped his whip. I thought Matt Chapman on Sky Sports Racing was really rude about Asockastar before the race given he said it would be a shame if he won because it means the other two weren't as good as they were. Why on earth is that a shame? If he could have been bothered to have done any research then he would have noticed that Asockastar had the form to beat him this season and that he is a good horse in his own right. I didn't hear what he said after the race, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was pretty rude again. I suspect the winner will go to Stratford and he deserves his place in the line-up for me.
To get another short price fav beaten in the same day was probably too much to hope for and In Arrears ran out a comfortable winner at Exeter. She didn't really handle the ground, but was able to see off the other two with ease. I'm guessing she will head to Stratford where if they over water the ground again she would have a good chance in the Restricted race.
The Kelso Hunter Chase really does look like the perfect chance for Greensalt to finally get a Hunter Chase win. He finished 3rd in last year's Aintree Foxhunters' and then was badly interfered with when unseating in the Heart Of All England. This season he finished a good 2nd to Path To Freedom and then ran really well at Aintree again before fading to finish 7th. His form is way above what the others have achieved and he really ought to be winning this.
The race Llancillo Lord won at Fakenham on Easter Monday was really weak and as I wrote at the time the Maisemore win wasn't especially strong either. If he could have finished 7th or better at Aintree I would be amazed so I am happy to take him on. Hardrock Davis is the only other one to consider and yes he was unlucky here last time, but that was a weak contest and Beyond Gold hardly did anything for the form on Saturday. He did win his maiden over 2m4f, but I am not sure this trip is the ideal for him as he does seem to stay well. I fancy him more than Llancillo Lord, but Greensalt ought to be good enough to beat the pair of them.
Greensalt 2ps @ 5/4 with William Hill and BetVictor 

Think we will be looking at 20p

The first thing I am going to say about the Fakenham race is I don't fancy Mr Mix. To me he is purely priced up on his 2nd to Hazel Hill at Warwick, but apart from the winner and Shantou Flyer that race has not worked out well at all. The win at Charing was unimpressive and not strong form. He then ran at Aintree and never got involved at all. I have just gone back and watched the video and Asockastar has been in front of him the whole race so why on earth is that one a way bigger price? Also Mr Mix was 2nd to Just Cause at Cottenham in December and Asockastar beat that horse when winning a Hunter Chase at Leicester in February. Therefore there are two pieces of form that suggest Asockastar has the beating of Mr Mix. Needless to say I am putting Asockastar up as the main bet here. He ran well at Cheltenham as well as Aintreee and the one slight concern is we have seen horses disappoint after those races so he could not run his race, but lets be fair that is more than factored into the price.
I would personally have Mr Mix as 3rd in the betting and I would make Unioniste favourite. The Bangor run when he was just denied by Optimised was obviously boosted when that one was 2nd at Cheltenham last week. The main concern with him is that he might well get outpaced round here on quick ground. There are showers forecast which will help his chances, but you have to say he is over priced as well based on the Bangor run.
I didn't think there was a great deal of promise in Play The Ace's run at Perth a couple of weeks ago and I have never really seen him as a 3miler. Having said that he might come on for that Perth run, but I find it hard to want to fancy him on the back of it.
I wouldn't rule out Steeles Terrace either. Granted on the face of it the fact he has only won a weak 3 runner Mixed Open at Higham this season wouldn't give him a chance in this, but he has come up against some good pointers this season having been beaten by Broken Eagle and Caryto Des Brosses and we all know how good he is after last week. He was also 2nd to him at Stratford last year which came off the back of winning at Fontwell. He does need to step up, but I wouldn't rule that out.
So Asockastar has to be the main bet given his form does not make him a 15/2 chance at all. That is stand out by some way but even the shorter prices are still decent value. I know putting up 3 horses in a 5 runner race seems extreme, but seems as I want to be against the 11/10 fav that means there is big value to be had. I am worried about the sharp track for Unioniste, but that is factored into the current price so I want him covered. It is interesting that Steeles Terrace has been nibbled tonight and at 9/1 I am covering him as well.
Asockastar 2pts @ 15/2 with William Hill
Unioniste 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor
Steeles Terrace 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365
I might be wrong about the Exeter race, but I am not sure In Arrears should be as short as she is. Yes she was impressive here in March, but that was a poor race and she was found out at Ascot when she was way too keen. Granted that was a better race than this and she might well win, but I don't think she has as much in hand as the betting suggests. Emperor Renard was around 16L behind In Arrears when 6th on his only start this season at Bishops Court. He has clearly had his issues as he has only run 5 times since finishing 4th in the point to point bumper here in 2016. What caught my eye was the fact he was backed from 4/1 into 6/4F for that race at Bishops Court so clearly connections were expecting better. The fact he has been off since suggests all might not have been right that day and it would not surprise me if he ran much better in this. 
Ballyvodock has a lot of letters in his form from when he was trained in Ireland, but in his 3 runs over here you can certainly give him a chance in this. He won on his first start at Kilworthy when he had Awesome Tunes 3L behind in 3rd. In Arrears beat the same horse 2L in that Bishops Court race. He was then 2nd to Sixteen Letters and he ran really well at Cheltenham last week. He was well beaten over Easter, but that came over 3m4f and he likely just didn't stay.
Yes I would make In Arrears favourite and she might well win, but given Emperor Renard was well backed to beat her and on a line through Awesome Tunes Ballyvodock is pretty much level with her then I think they are both over priced here to beat her.
Emperor Renard 0.75pts @ 3/1 with Bet365 and most others
Ballyvodock 0.75pts @ 9/1 with William Hill

i'll try a cheeky double:
Rotherham and btts with sheff wed and btts pays 26/1 b365
I don't like Middlesboro and think such is the team spirit under paul warne he may get a reaction even though relegated

I will obviously review Cheltenham at some point next week, but it was a decent enough night although obviously kicking myself a bit for not just backing the two winners against the two short price favs that got beat, but there we go. I think Risk A Fine was caught out by the ground over that trip and I am sure connections wish they had taken him out in hindsight. The winner was impressive though and clearly has come back in very good health. My biggest mistake though was forgetting to actually back Caid Du Berlais as I thought I had on Thursday night, but I hadn't actually done it so I ended up with only actually backing Stand Up And Fight in the race! Still hopefully plenty profited from the tip and he was just as impressive as he was last year in the race.
Onto the Heart Of All England at Hexham on Saturday night and I will keep things fairly brief. The 6/1 that Buck Dancing was put in at was a silly price, but I still think the current price is value. He was entered at Cheltenham in the Intermediate Final, but this looks an easier race for him and the prize money is decent as well. He unseated at Catterick on his Hunter Chase debut, but his form in points is very strong. He beat Hardrock Davis by 8L prior to Catterick and that horse was the one Beyond Gold brought down at Kelso. Now we don't know what would have happened that day and obviously that was only his 2nd run, but in my view I don't think he would have won let alone beaten him by 8L. The run after Catterick was really impressive as the first and 2nd had a great battle and they set a really quick time. Last time he was 2nd to a horse who is 3/3 this season and looks a top prospect itself. He has the best form in the race for me and rates a decent bet.
Snow Castle's form is OK, but has a bit to find with the selection based on what he's done so far. As mentioned above I do think Beyond Gold has a bit to find as well although on just his 3rd start he might be up to it. He would be a danger for me. Hafajay was 2L behind Sam Cavallaro two starts back and that form was obviously franked on Friday, but it was only a 3 runner race and I doubt the winner was at his peak that day given Friday was his Gold Cup. He beat Wizadora last week and that one was 2nd in this last year, but given the horses who would have finished 1st and 2nd both departed late on that doesn't exactly say much. He is only 6, but has a bit to find. I don't really fancy Mr Pepperpot and I don't think Frankies Fire's wins add up too much. She was also well beaten by Hardrock Davis when 3rd two starts back when it was mentioned the horse deserves stronger handling so the jockey is a concern. 
So for me Buck Dancing should be up to winning this as his point form really does stand out in this contest.
Buck Dancing 2.5pts @ 11/4 with William Hill

Difficult to rate but ive done as much as possible with emphasis on draw ...preferably low 8 and early tactical speed .....and thrown up ....
Maximum security   10/1 lads
Vekoma  14/1 b365 
Seems good enough to me ....both these posess everything id want in a horse of this nature and decent prices so im happy to play ..
5pt ew both 
 

Hearts v Kilmarnock.
Kilmarnock can virtually end Hibs European hopes with 3 points at Tynecastle today. Hearts are a poor side, I'm still in disbelief that they somehow stole a point at Easter Road last week after being completely outplayed by Hibs. Kilmarnock are a very decent side and the odds on the away win look good to me.
Kilmarnock win @ 2.62.

it's final shot at this weekends acca in lower leagues. 
acca
west ham
wolverhampton
luton
wycombe
newport city
macclesfield
forest green
tranmere
barnsley
walsall
stake £20  pays £20.000
good luck

Very quick with a couple of bets for the weekend. I fancy the draw in the Solihull v Fylde match on Saturday lunchtime. I mentioned in my promotion preview that I could see the game going to pens given the amount of draws Fylde have away from home and Solihull have drawn 8 at home themselves this season. I think it will be a tight game and it should certainly be a tougher test than the one Harrogate offered on Wednesday night.
Eastleigh scored a superb winner against Wrexham and defended really well, but extra time and another long trip against a very strong Salford side should really be too much for them. The Southern League Central play-offs are finally taking place so I am going to take Kings Lynn again and double the two up. It pays 1.66/1 with Bet365 but Oddschecker is up the creek again so bigger maybe available elsewhere.
There might be one more bet for Sunday but will add that at a later point.
Solihull v Fylde 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365
Salford/Kings Lynn 1pt double @ 1.66/1 with Bet365

It will be interesting to see how the ground rides and there maybe some rain around this afternoon. I'm hoping if they get too much they take Wonderful Charm out. If they don't and it does rain I will probably look to cash out so we shall see what happens. I have some betting without the fav bets to add.
In the first race I am backing Saffron Wells 1pt at 2/1 with William Hill. It is being trimmed but that is a fair price in my view. In the feature race Bet365 have betting without Hazel Hill and Virak and Caryto Des Brosses is 11/4 which I think is a big price and I have had a point on that. In the mares race Kalabaloo should be clear 2nd in and 9/4 with Bet365 in the betting without market is well worth taking. Again 1pt on him.
Finally Bet365 offer places in the 4miler down to 10 places. I have decided to have 0.75pts e/w on Changeofluck in the 8 place market for which he is 20/1. As I say in the preview he will stay and will be finishing better than most so at the very least he should finish in the top 8. I notice a couple of others on Twitter fancy him as well so I'm not the only one who thinks he is worth backing.

The Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown looks a really interesting renewal. Needless to say I can't have Burning Ambition. He might well come 2nd, but surely something is going to beat him unless his jockey can get it spot on. Stand Up And Flight was being touted as the new On The Fringe, but he was beaten at Cheltenham whilst still being able to win this. He wasn't given the best of rides that day and I am sure the way this race will be run will suit much better. He basically finished upsides Ucello Conti and I think he can reverse form with that one given Ucello Conti has been to Aintree and Fairyhouse since. He might have been slightly fortunate at Fairyhouse as well and I think this race is going to be tougher especially being just 10 days ago.
You can give some sort of chance to Fenno's Storm and It Came To Pass and the fact they have missed all the Festival's might help their cause. Fenno's Storm has beaten Stand Up And Flight in January, but I suspect that form will be reversed here.
As well as Stand Up And Flight I have to back Caid Du Berlais. He was my main hope at Cheltenham and he ran a stinker. I just wonder if the preparation ended up being a bit rushed in the end and that told in the race. He bolted up in this race last year and clearly things most be well with him otherwise they wouldn't make the trip over. If he is anywhere near the form he was in when he won this last year then I think he wins, but that is obviously the unknown after Cheltenham although it is factored into the price for me.
Stand Up And Flight 1.5pts @ 11/4 with Bet365
Caid Du Berlais 1pt @ 13/2 with Paddy Power/Betfair

There are quite a few bets in this preview, but I am hoping that we can make a profit or as small a loss as possible on each race which is how I am attacking the card. Unusually we have 3 long odds on shots on the card. It is hard to see any of them being beaten so I have done f/c in those races. I will also look to add any betting without bets tomorrow when those get priced up. If its a total blank then this could be a disaster, but hopefully that won't be the case!   5.05 Gustave Mahler - This looks a shrewd bit of placing from Alistair Ralph as this race is for horses who have not won a chase apart from a Hunter Chase. He started his life in points and landed the Aintree point to point bumper back in 2016. He has won 3 times over hurdles and was then sent novice chasing last summer. He ran some solid races in defeat and recorded some good RPR's. He was then beaten in a handicap by Sumkindofking at Ludlow on his last start in October. He wouldn't want the ground soft so a lot of rain would concern, but good to soft will be fine and everything else is in his favour.   Red Inca - Very lucky to win at Paxford on Easter Monday as he was the only horse to complete the course. He pulled up in this in 2017 and was 17th of 19 in the last race on the card last year. Hard to see him improving on those two efforts.   Saffron Wells - Had some useful form for Colin Tizzard and ran his last race for him on Boxing Day 2017. He reappeared for new connections at Charlton Horethorne in March and ran well to finish 2nd to a solid enough yardstick. He was then a 2L 3rd followed by an unseat and then on Saturday he finished a close 2nd to Herbert Park which was a really good effort. Darren Edwards gets on him for the first time which is a good jockey change. He has won over 2m7f over hurdles, but I get the feeling he hasn't quite been seeing out the trip in points so a drop down to 2m here should be up his street. Certainly has place claims.   Sam Cavallaro - Has a really good record in this race having won it in 2015 and 2016, finished 2nd in 2017 and then 3rd to Monsieur Gibraltar last year. This will have no doubt been his target again as he hasn't shown a great deal so far having been well beaten in 2 Hunter Chases at Ludlow and then he won a 3 runner race at Chaddesley Corbett on Easter Saturday. He was ridden much handier last year after dropping himself out the year before, but he still found himself outpaced at a crucial stage. It might be asking a little too much for him to win this at the age of 13, but I can certainly see him hitting the frame.    The Winningtipster - Struggling to even complete although was a 94L 3rd to Master Baker at Taunton. Should be outclassed.   Western Dream - Has way more letters in his form than numbers and has no chance.   Willem - Has managed to win a point in the last 3 years although the one this year came in a 3 runner race which he ended up winning by 30L although the odds on favourite through in a moody performance. Was a well beaten 6th in this in 2017 and although he has a better chance than most I still find it hard to see him winning.   Dissertation - Was 14L behind Sam Cavallaro at Ludlow and as much as 2m will probably suit her more than 2m4f she shouldn't really be troubling the judge.   Summary - Most of these seem to be running in this to give their jockey's a spin round Cheltenham so there are very few in with a serious chance of winning. It really does look a fantastic bit of placing from his trainer and Gustave Mahler really ought to be winning this fairly comfortably as there isn't another 130 horse in the race. I like the jockey change on Saffron Wells and he has some decent place form in points this year as well as being useful under rules before. Duel winner Sam Cavallaro will no doubt give it a good go at trying to win this for the 3rd time.   Gustave Mahler to beat Saffron Wells 1.5pts f/c Gustave Mahler to beat Sam Cavallaro 0.5pts f/c   5.40 Ballycahane - Hasn't always jumped well and seems to get himself outpaced in his races. Was a length 2nd to Coco Live at Larkhill in March when not quite getting there and he might have a chance of reversing that form over this longer trip. I can certainly see him staying on past beaten horses.   Black Jewel - Lost his weight cloth at Larkhill when he was disqualified in March (bizarrely his jockey picked it up and tried to weigh in with it!) and his winning form is nothing special. Has work to do with Ballycahane through Call Me Vic as well.   Captain McGinley - 2nd to Imogens Thunder at Chipley Park in the quickest time of the day and Virak won on that card. Won at Monmouth last time from a useful enough yardstick and he looks to be improving, certainly looks better than he was when he was last seen under rules.   Chapelier - 4/4 in East Anglia this term so is clearly progressing nicely, but that isn't exactly the strongest area in the country so there isn't much depth to his form although beating Postbridge was a decent effort last time. That race was over 2m4f and the extra trip here is a slight concern. His trainer is pretty shrewd though and he must think he has a chance for him to send him here.   Coco Live - Bit disappointing he didn't win at Taunton because that wasn't a strong race at all and the winner has been well beaten since. Had won his last 4 prior to that and is clearly progressing. I thought his jockey showed his inexperience at Taunton and that would be a concern round here for me.   Doctor's Differ - Pulled up on his seasonal return and has won two weak 4 runner races since then so there is little depth to his form.   Laser Beam - 3/3 since coming over here but the last two in 3 runner races and the maiden he won was weak. Chapelier looks to be the better chance from the stable in my view.   Lightnightpass - Maiden win was in a much quicker time than the other division and then comfortably won a weak Restricted at Charing. He was 2nd the next time to Timmie Roe who has won 7/7 this season. What was interesting was the winning time which was 6 seconds quicker than Salvatore's on the same card. He then won a match at 1/8 at Godstone last month. Has the assistance of Gina and isn't out of this.   Lords Park Star - Could hardly have found a weaker Intermediate to win last month although the 4th at Leicester in Hunter Chase wasn't completely hopeless. Even so he would be a surprise winner.   Max O - Beaten 29L by Salvatore in January and hard to see him reversing that form let alone win this.   Pancrace - Some useful form in points this season including a neck 2nd to Hunter Chase winner In Arrears in January and then won his Restricted next time out. Pulled up in the race Black Jewel won before being disqualified and then back to form when a 5L 3rd to Captain McGinley at Monmouth last time. That leaves him with a bit of work to do though.   Salvatore - Recorded the quickest time of the day when winning on his seasonal return at Thorpe Lodge in an impressive performance. Went onto win his next two in easy enough style and was then 3rd in a Mixed Open at Maisemore. Marcle Ridge who runs in the next race was 2nd. It has to be said he was a bit disappointing though and the performance was certainly no better than Ballycahane's who also won on the card carrying 12st10lbs. He is clearly decent, but I'm not sure he has repeated that seasonal return back in January.   Sixteen Letters - Improved as the season has gone on. Looked in the need of the run first time out and then just failed to get up in time next time out. Won last month at Cherrybrook when running out an easy winner. Might not quite be good enough, but a bold showing would not surprise.   Tricky Silence - Didn't show a great deal for his current trainer in 2016/17 and then under rules for Stuart Edmonds, but this season he has really progressed. It was a solid reappearance win at Cottenham in December before showing a nice turn of foot to win at Horseheath. It was the Edgecote win last time that was particularly impressive as he won a Mixed Open in good style and he had Hunter Chase winner Pass The Hat in behind in 3rd. The one concern I have is ground on the soft side of good as his wins so far have been on quickish ground, but otherwise he looks to have a leading chance.   What A Joke - Has plenty to find with most of these.   Summary - This looks the hardest race on the card and my shortlist contains Ballycahane, Captain McGinley, Chaplier, Lightnightpass, Salvatore, Sixteen Letters and Tricky Silence. Before the prices came out I was expecting Ballycahane to be a double figure price and would have put him up, but I was surprised to see he was put in favourite so I will pass. Salvatore was put in a silly price at double figures, but he is the right sort of price now. Chaplier looks a little on the short side so I will pass on him as well. I am happy to take the two at double figures Lightnightpass and Sixteen Letters as they both look a big price to me. Tricky Silence is the main bet of the shorter prices and I will also cover Captain McGinley.   Tricky Silence 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365 and most others Lightnightpass 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 Captain McGinley 1pt @ 13/2 with BetVictor Sixteen Letters 0.25pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365   6.15 Alfstar - Can throw in some shockers, but has some very strong form at his best. The 3rd at Bangor was a good effort in a hot race and after pulling up on seasonal return behind Risk A Fine he has run two good races. First off he won a Ladies Open at Howick and then was a good 2nd giving 4lbs to Garde Ville at Bangor. In the context of this race that is strong form. The slight concern is the ground as I think he needs cut, but if there is enough juice i the ground he has a leading chance.   Big Georgie - Didn't run too badly at Taunton and this test should suit much better and he seems in decent form this season. Does have a bit to find with Alfstar based on his run behind Garde Ville last April.   Damut I'm Out - Rated 100 over hurdles but has yet to win under rules. Not sure his 2 point wins this season prove he has what it needs to win this and based on winning times at Maisemore he needs to find more to beat Marcle Ridge.   Kit Barry - Was 3rd in this race last year and didn't run that badly at Exeter last time. Overall though he is pretty exposed and you would be a bit disappointed if he was good enough to go two places better this time around.   Marcel Ridge - Progressing nicely having won his maiden and Restricted last year before winning two more this season. Beat a big field on his seasonal return at Larkhill and then finished alone at Chaddesley Corbett. His last start saw him just failing to get back up and beat solid yardstick Templebraden at Maisemore. He is the one horse in the race that is progressive. A slight concern would be his jumping as he wasn't great at Maisemore and he front runs so seeing out the trip could be an issue, but he seems to have plenty of fight in him. Had the option of the Intermediate Final and I'm not surprised they have gone down this route.   Moscow Prices - Thrown in a couple of stinkers this season, but won a couple and was 2nd to a decent horse at Chaddesley Corbett last time. Wouldn't be out of this although his jockey has only had a couple of rides under rules so far.   Order In Court - Basically had a walkover last time over Easter and only a maiden and restricted winner so far so has bit to find to win this.   Summary - Looks a 3 horse race to me with the winner coming from Marcle Ridge, Alfstar and Moscow Prices. Marcle Ridge has to be the main selection given I am not sure the ground is going to be soft enough for Alfstar. I do want him onside though as he has the best form in the race. At the prices we can have a small cover bet on Moscow Prices as well.   Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 5/2 with William Hill and BetVictor Alfstar 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor Moscow Prices 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Bet365 and most others   6.50  Hazel Hill - Doesn't really need me to tell you what he has done and been given a nice break since storming clear to win the Foxhunter in March. The form looks strong given Top Wood won at Aintree, Road To Rome ran well there and Ucello Conti won at Fairyhouse. This is a good race, but if he is in peak form it is hard to see how he gets beat.   Master Baker - I am really surprised that they chose this race over the first race. He'd have had a real chance in that, but it is hard to see how he can win this. He's a good horse, but I'm not sure he wants to go this far and he bled after being put under severe pressure by Risk A Fine. If he stays I am sure he will run well, but I can't back him.   Virak - Now Ben might have bled, but I thought it was a serious effort to beat him at Ludlow last time. That made 5 on the bounce for the season and he recovered well from a bad mistake at Ascot to beat Queen Olivia the time before. Looks the most likely to give Hazel Hill something to worry about.   Caryto Des Brosses - I have been waiting for him to run a Hunter Chase all season and when he does he gets put into one of the biggest races of the season! He's really progressive and I thought he looked really good when winning at Stratford in June. He had a little hold up but came back at Garthorpe when he wasn't fully fit and he won well before hacking up a 3 runner race at Fakenham last month. As much as I like him I doubt he will be good enough to win this. The trip will be a slight concern as well although the trainer thinks he will get it.    Kelvingrove - 3 runs in points and hunter chases this season and none of the form would be good enough to win this.   Gran Paradiso - Seems an odd race to run him in as he won't be good enough and he could have run at Hexham on Saturday or he would have had more of a chance in the 4 mile race on this card.   Path To Freedom - I really thought they would go to Hexham with him on Friday once they saw how hot this race was. He was unlucky to be beaten at Catterick as Diplomate Sivola caught him right on on the line. He has won two points since although may have been slightly fortunate to win last time as Young Hurricane idled once he hit the front. Every chance he will make the running with Caryto Des Brosses and help set it up for Hazel Hill I would imagine.   Summary - As long as he is in the same sort of form as he was here in March I don't see how Hazel Hill doesn't win this. There are some useful horses against him, but none that would have got close to him in March. Virak looks the most likely to finish 2nd and I will certainly be including Caryto Des Brosses into betting without bets to give him a chance to prove he is as good as I think he might be.   Hazel Hill to beat Virak 1.5pts f/c Hazel Hill to beat Caryto Des Brosses 0.5pts f/c   7.20 Martha's Benefit - Beat a 15yo in a match on her only run so far this season on Easter Saturday. Won a couple of handicaps last summer off marks of 95. Been well beaten in the last two running's of this though and I don't think she stays this far.   Tb Broke Her - Won one of 7 races this season which came on her penultimate start when beating Patricktom Boru by 18L. Was beaten at 4/6 at Andoversford a week later. Didn't show a great deal at Ludlow on her on Hunter Chase start so far this season and looks to have a bit to find.   Theatre Territory - I didn't think she was that impressive at Exeter and she looks hard work, but she has been running in much better races than this and she really ought to win although can't say she is exactly one I would want to be backing at short odds.   Absainte - Looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. Still whatever it was she is clearly over and although strictly speaking on form she has to find something she might be capable of finishing 2nd.   Kalabaloo - Done well this season winning her first 3 before being beaten by Dabinett Moon last month. Nothing wrong with that in the context of this contest and apart from the favourite she has the best form in my opinion. Ran well to finish 3rd in the Intermediate Final last year and she looks the most likely to finish 2nd.   Kazuri Kate - Pulled up on seasonal debut behind Salvatore and then won last month although it was a pretty weak Ladies Open. Has got bits and pieces of form, but hard to see her taking this on her rules debut.   Summary - She is about 1/3 and I can't say I would be wanting to taking those odds, but Theatre Territory is by far the most likely winner. I don't think Martha's Benefit stays this far and to me Kalabaloo is the most likely to finish 2nd to her. I will also have a small bet on Absainte to finish 2nd as well as she looks like she is improving and might be better than her rating.   Theatre Territory to beat Kalabaloo 1.5pts f/c Theatre Territory to beat Absainte 0.5pts f/c   7.50 Mendip Express - Been handicapping this season and managed to win one at Sandown in December off 124. Wasn't so good the next time and I guess he has been saved for this. Unproven over this far, but you get the impression he will stay especially in a race like this.   Sam Red - Handicap win for Dan Skelton here in October was only off a mark of 118 and he hasn't got close to running to that form since. He ran OK at Newbury when 4th to Master Baker on the 2nd of his 3 Hunter Chase runs, but it was a poor effort at Exeter and he looks one to leave alone to me.   Wonderful Charm - The key to his chances will be how much water they have put on and if any rain falls because he is just a better horse on good ground. This looks his race though as I really do think he will stay 4m at this level. Ignore his Aintree run where the ground went against him and he had no chance in that anyway. When disappointed last season in the big races again it was on soft ground and the 3rd at Stratford was a good effort on over-watered ground. Big chance for me.   Jack Snipe - 3/3 in points this season and although they weren't the strongest races in the world he did well to win them and he looks like he has needed stiffer tests of stamina in all 3. His win in a handicap last summer was off 99 though and unless he improves massively for 4m it is hard to see him being good enough. I will add though that he has a high rating in the pointing form book.   Master Sunrise - I thought he might be capable of showing something at Exeter last time, but he put in a very moody effort and I can't have him here.   Optimised - Went off a 9/4 shot in the Intermediate Final last year and travelled well, but stopped fairly quickly. Watching that you would think there was no chance of him staying this far, but I suspect there must have been an issue that night. He returned to finish a well beaten 7th behind Risk A Fine, but then his season has taken off. He has won 3 on the bounce including a hunter chase at Bangor last time. That day he was headed but stayed on really powerfully to beat Unioniste right on the line. His running style this season suggests 4m shouldn't be an issue and he is clearly progressing.   Premier Portrait - Won a couple of Hunter Chases, but he looks to be going backwards and hard to see him playing a part here.   After Aspen - Hard to give him any chance based on his pointing runs this season.   Captain Von Trappe - On the basis of his first pointing win this season he would have a chance in this, but has run poorly in both runs since including in the Lady Dudley Cup just 13 days ago.   Changeofluck - God knows why he ran over 2m4f at Leicester in February as all he does is stay. Was 3rd behind Haymount at Kingston Blount, but he got outpaced before running on with a mistake 3 out hindering his progress. I can't see him winning, but it just wouldn't surprise me if he hit the frame at huge odds given we know he stays.   Earthmoves - Hard to see him staying even if he was good enough which he doesn't look like being.   Haymount - Think he is favourite mainly based on the fact he was 2nd in the National Hunt Chase a couple of years ago. He has won all 3 points but he has hardly been impressive and the comment in the form book for his win last time said another laboured success. He was given Vasco Du Mee and Changeofluck 8lbs, but you would have like to have seen him make easier work of it. He ran no race in the Foxhunter as well so that would worry me. He could need a Gina special to win this.   Knockaderry Flyer - God knows how he won at this meeting 2 years ago and I can't have him.   Sentimentaljourney - No chance.   Southfield Theatre - Has only been beaten once in 4 points this season and that was by Monsieur Gibraltar who would certainly have had too much pace for him. Ran as well as could have been expected when 9th in the Foxhunter and he shouldn't have any issue with the trip. Likely to make a bold bid.   Spainish Arch - No idea where the 2nd at Sandown came from because the rest of the form this season is terrible.   Teeton Kato - Has one good piece of form this season and that was the only other time Jack Andrews has ridden him as he was 3rd just behind Dance Of Time and Petrou at Thorpe Lodge. The rest of his form leaves him with a bit to find and the trip is an unknown.   Twist On Ginge - Hard to see him playing much of a part.   Vasco Du Mee - Won this race 3 years ago and seems to be coming back to some sort of form. Not much of a race he won last time although the 2nd to Haymount is decent. Obviously we know he handles course and distance so another bold showing wouldn't surprise.   Vinctore - No chance   Summary - I might be wrong, but I think Haymount is worth taking on here. I like Wonderful Charm as long as the ground hasn't got too much cut in it. I think 4m round here will suit him well. Optimised is the progressive horse in the field and I want him onside. I considered Mendip Express, but I think Southfield Theatre might prefer the trip more so will cover him as well. Of the big prices Changeofluck might be the one who can outrun his odds.    Wonderful Charm 2pts @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power Optimised 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor Southfield Theatre 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and most others   8.20 Risk A Fine - Put in one of the best performances of the season when he won at Stratford last month. He saw off Arthur's Secret out in front and then put Master Baker under so much pressure that he bled. It really was a top effort and backed up his Warwick performance and what I saw him do at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. There is no real disgrace finishing 2nd to Monsieur Gibraltar although I do think he under performed that day. The only thing that could get him beat is if he doesn't handle the track as he is yet to run around here, but he has the right man on top and I can see him burning them all off from the front.   Crazy Jack - Ran well in this race last year to finish 4th and then was well handicapped to win the handicap hunter chase at Stratford. Not shown a great deal this season although didn't run too badly two starts back. Ran no sort of race at Aintree last time.   Delegate - Just denied by Hidden Charmer at Ludlow, but then thrashed by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell and has no chance with Risk A Fine on that running. If they plan on front running with him again then that won't help him either as Risk A Fine will be going too quick for him.   Hidden Charmer - Got a good ride at Ludlow and although he was beaten at 4/5 over Easter the 3m trip wouldn't have helped. The problem is if they front run with him then he will also struggle to keep up with Risk A Fine.   Bishops Road - Surely he should be running in the 4m race. His last win came in the Grand National Trial in 2016 in heavy ground and ran OK up to a point in the same race this year when 6th. Jumping isn't always the best and surely he is going to get outpaced over this trip especially with the likely pace going to be set.   Champagne West - 8/1 at the time of writing, but on the form he is shown so far this season you could add a 1 at least in front of that. Granted he showed up for a fair way at Aintree, but he was pulled up in the end and hard to see him winning this.   Knockraha Prince - No chance.   Lawsons Thorns - No chance.   Petrou - Took 5 races to win a point this season, but was 2nd to Hazel Hill in one of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. On that run he does have a bit to find with Risk A Fine. The form of the last two runs is solid and the fast pace will suit him as he will be held up and will be the one finishing off his race well. The question is if Risk A Fine will be too far ahead for him to catch up.   Village Vic - He finished his race off very weakly at Newbury on his first start for nearly a year. He obviously has some very good form around here and he could come on for that Newbury run, but Risk A Fine thrashed the winner of that race last time and it has been a long time since he has shown any worthwhile form albeit in better races than this. If Maxwell tries to serve it up to Risk A Fine then he is only going to hinder his own chances in my view.   Summary - I really do think Risk A Fine will lead these a merry dance and although there are other possible front runners in the race, if he repeats what he did at Stratford they wont be able to live with him. The only slight concern is he hasn't run at the track before, but apart from that it looks the ideal race for him. Given Petrou's likely to come off the pace I think he will be the main danger and I will save on him.   Risk A Fine 3.5pts @ 11/8 with William Hill Petrou 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365

Well a £10 treble at Punchestown on Wednesday on Zero Ten (which looks an absolute machine), Minella Indo and LiveLoveLaugh was a close miss and would have paid £1200. If only Ruby had thought of us punters instead of himself  as I have no doubt he would have got the better of O O Seven if it were him in the saddle and not David Mullins (who looked like he was going round Badminton of Burleigh at some of the fences rather than in a race and totally missing the last)  I am talking through my pocket of course and who can possibly compare to Ruby? A sad day indeed.... onto tomorrows action:
4.15 Punchestown - Minds Eye (E/W) 8/1 NAP
Clearly a mind of his own this one, after running out last time at Fairyhouse when having made most of the running up to that point.  A horse with plenty of talent though, having already beaten Us and Them, at Wexford earlier in the season (albeit it was us and thems first run of the season) A rating of 139 looks fair and the cheekpieces are applied which will hopefully straighten his crazy tendencies out and its nice to see Rachael Blackmore keep the ride on this one and not ride Moon over Germany, who she won on at Aintree.  Snugsborough Hall is a danger as was closing in on my selection last time before he was carried out through no fault of his own.  Bun Doran looks too high in the handicap in my opinion. Impact Factor won the race Minds Eye and Snugsborough Hall didn't complete but has been put up 6 lbs and looked lucky that day. Minds Eye has already finished ahead of Moon Over Germany at Leopardstown this season when giving him 3lbs, tomorrow he receives 8 lbs, a 11 lbs swing! Also, I don't think the ground will be soft enough for Moon Over Germany.  So, I think its well worth taking the risk that the cheekpieces will work and Minds Eye will put it all in and come out on top at 8/1, a cracking each way bet and maybe a little reverse forecast with Snugsborough Hall?
 
4.50 Punchestown - Josies Orders 8/11
Well I thought this was going to be odds against, but at the price its a bit off putting eventhough Enda Bolger, king of the banks, should win this one with Josies Orders. This looks a weak renewal and I can't see past this one so decide yourself if you want to include it in this treble, or just do a ew double on Minds Eye and Ornua.
 
6.40 Punchestown - Ornua (best price 16s currently at Paddy Power, 12s elsewhere)
First and foremost this looks a massive price for a solid 2 mile horse that has proven himself at the highest level.  I think this is down to the flattering rating of Duc de Genievres and the impressiveness of Defi De Seuils season, but he has to now prove himself at this trip over fences. He is not the biggest and at the the faster tempo I think his jumping may be found out as Ornua likes to make the running and will definitely ask questions of Defi de Seuil. Defi has beaten Lostintranslation over 2m4f twice this season, but as we saw at Aintree the latter is better over 3 miles and Defi has beaten him for pace more than anything.  Can he beat a solid 2 miler for pace? I don't think so.  Duc Des Genievres looked very impressive at Cheltenham in the Arkle but the ground was really soft that day and I think he was flattered as the race looked sub standard and had a few fallers in it. Therefore the 2/1 looks skinny.  Ornua was running in the Queen Mother and I think was fancied to run well.  I would much rather a horse at 12/1-16/1 having been able to make the running in the Queen Mother, than a novice running in a below par Arkle on poor ground.
 
 
 
 

Cheers Striker, traveled extremely well and looks a good one.

It is fair to say Saturday won't be forgotten for a long time. Obviously if Boreham Wood had of won as well we all would have been looking at a massive amount of cash, but to get 6/7 with the prices they were meant that any acca type bet was going to pay very well. At the end of the day to even have a day like that is pretty rare and regular readers will know I am more about the steady profit of singles, but what happened on Saturday is the very reason why I always spend a little covering the accas. Those days are rare though and who knows when it will happen again. It certainly won't be with the play-offs as naturally the prices are shorter. Annoyingly at the time of writing on Bet365 have priced up Step 2 to be promoted markets and no one has priced up Step 3. It is frustrating because I do like a bet on that market, but there we go. I have a selection for all 3 of those markets though and before that I have a single and a treble on the play-off matches taking place this mid-week.
AFC Fylde v Harrogate (Wednesday)
It was no surprise that both these sides made big changes to their line-ups on Saturday. As Flyde manager Dave Challinor said after the loss to Halifax it doesn't matter who you play in the play-offs and they knew they would have a home first game followed by an away 2nd one and then Wembley if they were to win promotion. As I pointed out in my preview of the Halifax game, it made no difference if they finished 4th or 5th and they duly rested players ahead of this game on Wednesday. Harrogate lost 2-1 at Wrexham in a game where both sides made big changes so both sides should be well rested coming into this game, but I am keen on the home side. Fylde's home form has been superb this season and in the home performance league table they were 2nd to Wrexham. In their last 9 games Harrogate have only managed to beat Havant and Gateshead and their form has really trailed off in the last 2/3 months. I would be surprised if Fylde didn't have a bit too much for them here and at 23/20 with Betfred they look a decent bet.
National League play-off winners
So I think Fylde will get through to play Solihull and I would imagine it will probably be Wrexham going to Salford in the game. Whoever Salford play I think they will beat them and get through to the final. I said pre-season that getting Graham Alexander in as manager was a mistake and for me his lack of knowledge of the National League was the reason they didn't win the division. When they went on their dreadful run mid season it really did seem like Alexander would be lucky to keep his job and after they lost to Eastleigh on February 23rd he most have been close to the chop. However, he clearly learnt what was needed and he then made Salford's defence very tight and in 9 games they conceded just once and that was a penalty. I wouldn't read too much into their last 3 results especially the one on Saturday against Hartlepool as the fact Orient kept winning meant they were always playing catch up towards the end. I really do think they will win the play-offs and as much as Solihull or Fylde would be tough opponents I think they would have enough to beat either of them. Solihull have had an amazing season and Tim Flowers would be my manager of the year. They never dropped away and kept up the pressure on Orient right to the end. I can't help thinking though that the play-offs will be a step too far to them either in the semi's or the final itself. I think the 7/4 with Betfred for Salford to win promotion at the first time of asking is well worth taking. If they don't happen to do it this term then I think they will walk away with the title next season.
Treble
Spennymoor have finished the season really strongly and I will go into more detail in the outright preview as to why I think they can go up. They host Bradford in their first game and the form of the two sides could hardly be any different. Bradford have only beaten Nuneaton in their last 8 games and they have lost 5 of those. I don't see any reason why the form of the respective sides shouldn't continue and hopefully Spennymoor don't have too many issues. One of the reasons I am frustrated about the lack of Step 3 outright prices is because I really fancy South Shields and Kings Lynn. South Shields' away form cost them the league for me as they really struggled away from home early on in the season especially. At home they lost once all season and given they finished 2nd they will play both games at home. Buxton finished 21 points behind them and although that doesn't always mean the better team end up getting promotion, South Shields should have too much for them. Kings Lynn started the season very slowly and they eventually sacked their manager and last season's boss Ian Culverhouse came back. They soon flew up the table and although Kettering were too far gone to catch, they did end up catching Stourbridge for 2nd after they beat them on Saturday. If Culverhouse had of been in charge at the start of the season they would have pushed Kettering close and they only lost 2 games at home all season. They should be able to beat Stafford Wednesday's first match.
National League South Play-Off winners
Woking are way too short to win promotion straight back to the National League. Granted they made 4 changes for the game against Gloucester and they had nothing to play for, but I wasn't that impressed especially in defence. The back 4 was the normal back 4 as well so that is no excuse. For me Torquay were by far the best team in the division and there wasn't a great deal between the most of the other sides in the league. Strictly speaking being guaranteed home matches in the play-offs should be to their advantage, but they lost 7 times at home compared to just 3 times away from home. Woking have also won just one of their last 8 games. Woking will host Bath or Wealdstone and both of those teams lost fewer games away than Woking lost at home. With that in mind I hope that Welling can end up with a home game in the final after beating Chelmsford on Sunday. Steve King has his haters, but his managerial record is seriously impressive especially at this level. Given Welling had a budge cut during the season it was really impressive that they were still able to finish 3rd in the league. They come into the play-offs in superb form having lost just 2 of their last 10 games and they only lost twice at home all season winning 15 of their 21 home games. I think they have it in them to get the job done and they look overpriced to me as although Woking might do it they are stupidly short at 11/10.
National League North Play-Off winners
The North is tricky to call as all the teams bar Bradford come into the play-offs in strong form. It could also be said that Chorley aren't coming here in as good form as they would like as they have only won of their final 6 games and although they did beat champions Stockport, that win put them in the driving seat to win the title themselves and they just couldn't do it. They went 12 games unbeaten at the start of the season and it's fair to say that start is why they finished 2nd rather than their finish. For that reason I am happy to take them on. Brackley have claims for sure as only Spennymoor have beaten them in their last 10, whilst they were the only team to beat Altrincham in their last 10 games. Blyth have won 7 games on the bounce and although it was a fairly kind set of fixtures they did beat Stockport in that spell. Like Bradford though the people in charge of the club don't want promotion and the have already cut the budget for next season. The players are obviously keen though and I wouldn't rule them out totally. Spennymoor though look to be hitting form at the right time. The were going through a dodgy spell and even lost 3-0 to relegated Ashton at the beginning of the month, but they then won four on the bounce including beating Brackley and Chorley. There is no real difference in their away or home form which is important I think given they will have to play at home and away. They also might have to play Brackley and Chorley they won't fear them either given they have beaten them in the last couple of weeks. I think they are value at 5/1 for promotion.
AFC Fylde 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Spennymoor, South Shields and Kings Lynn 1pt treble @ 4.7/1 with Marathon (Now a double after the Kings Lynn game was called off)
National League Play-Off winners Salford 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred
National League South Play-Off winners Welling 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
National League North Play-Off winners Spennymoor 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365

Good luck today
7.45 Punchestown-Gypsy Island @ 13-8  Skybet
Should be worth the wait

So we finally reach the last day of the regular season. It was nice to get a profit on Monday with Weston, Dover and Dorking all landing at big odds. This season has been very up and down although still be a decent enough season. The ante-post stuff will show a nice profit and we are basically waiting on who wins the Evo-Stik Southern Premier as Weymouth and Taunton were both covered. I really need it to be Weymouth to help land a lumpy mid-season acca I put on (although Farsley aren't home and hosed yet either), but at least I have Taunton covered. Hopefully it can be a profitable end of the season on the match betting front where I have some big prices again.
AFC Fylde v Halifax
It doesn't really matter if Fylde come 4th or 5th and I reckon they might rest a few players in this match with the play-off matches coming thick and fast next week. They are guaranteed a home tie in the first round of matches and will be away in the next tie if they get through anyway so with that in mind Halifax are worth a bet here at 11/2. They beat Wrexham 2-1 on Easter Monday who are the team in 5th at the moment so there is no reason why they can't repeat the same sort of performance here.
Boreham Wood v Eastleigh
The home side gave it a good go at Chesterfield for us on Monday, but ended up going down 3-2 after having a man sent off. Eastleigh made sure of their play-off spot by beating Maidenhead and like Fylde it doesn't really matter if they finish 6th or 7th because they will be away in both the possible games anyway and I can imagine that they will rest key players. This gives Wood a chance especially as they have performed well in recent weeks so are worth backing at just over 2/1.
Bromley v Ebbsfleet
God knows what is happening behind the scenes at Ebbsfleet, but the players still haven't been paid and it is hard to see how they are going to be overly motivated to put in a performance here for a club that is in a right mess off the pitch. The loss to Dover on Monday meant they can no longer finish in the play-offs so there really is nothing to play for and they were poor in that game as it was. Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 4 so still seem to be trying and they beat Leyton Orient 5 games ago. They should be favs for this and 7/4 looks a huge price.
Hartlepool v Salford
Taking a bit of a chance here, but I am backing the home side. I just wonder if Salford will decide to concentrate on the play-offs given they are highly unlikely to catch Leyton Orient. If Orient go in front early on then Salford will know their number is really up and they wont want to be risking injuries ahead of the play-offs. Hartlepool aren't exactly ending the season in great form but they did beat Halifax on Good Friday. Team news could be key, but it might just pay to be ahead of the game here and have a small investment at a big price in the hope Salford have one eye on the play-offs.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
Not that long ago Spennymoor were in poor form, but they have won 4 of their last 5 games and are setting themselves up nicely for the play-offs. They got a huge win against at the time league leaders Chorley on Easter Monday and they will be trying here as if they can overtake Brackley then they will have one less game in the play-offs. As I have mentioned a few times of late Curzon have stopped for the season based on their performances and odds against on the away side picking up another win is a big price.
Eastbourne v Concord
I really don't get the price of Concord here. I think the bookies are basing it on the fact they are basically certain of a play-off spot, but what they have missed is the fact that they can finish 4th or 5th and that would mean a home tie in the first round of the play-offs. Given how strong they have been at home this season that would be huge if they could overtake Bath and or Chelmsford. God knows where Eastbourne's 6-0 drubbing of Dartford came from given it had been a very long time since they last won prior to that. They then drew with Slough 1-1 on Monday which was a decent effort as well. They are safe now though and with Concord still having something to play for they just should be 9/2.
Woking v Gloucester City
I suspect if Gloucester had not come from 2 down to beat Chippenham 3-2 on Monday then Gloucester would not have been such a big price for this because they still would have been fighting for their survival. Fortunately for me and my fellow City supporters we are now safe for another season, but I think we can go out on a win. Our away form has been much stronger than our home form this term, but the key point is that Woking have nothing to play for. They can only finish 2nd now and I really can't believe that they won't be resting players ahead of the play-offs. Why would Alan Dowson risk his key players in a meaningless game a few days ahead of trying to win promotion? 21/5 looks a big price on an away win to me.
Halifax 1pt @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Bromley 2pts @ 7/4 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred
Gloucester 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor

Nice to get back to winning ways and there was a nice drift on Mr Mercurial at Perth who returned 5/1. It still wasn't the best of rides as he jumped the last a good few lengths clear, but was only just over 2L clear at the line as he yet again idled on the run in. It was lucky that Double Whammy had done his running because if it was a fresher horse coming from behind I think he would have been beaten. Still he held on and it was a good effort as I think the 2nd has run his race. I'm sure we will see him again before the season is out. As for Double Whammy this is now the 3rd time he has been 2nd in a Hunter Chase and he has bumped into 3 decent horses. He probably deserves to find one of these now. Play The Ace was a massive drifter and he didn't stay as I thought he wouldn't. With this run behind him though over a shorter trip he might win before the season is out. Forgotten Gold was a huge disappointment and this clearly wasn't his running. I wonder if he might be retired now. Purcell's Bridge ran above himself to finish 3rd, but hard to know if it was a one off or a return to form.
Monsieur Gibraltar l was really well backed having been 1/4 last night. To go off 1/16 shows that some serious punters were getting stuck in. He won easily and I suspect he will be at Cheltenham next week for the 2m race he won last season. The forecast was landed easily and for it to pay over even money on the CSF was pretty good really.
The last Hunter Chase before Cheltenham next week is the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow and this race has been all about the well backed favourites because they have won the last 5 runnings of this and I think all 5 bolted up up as well. I think there is a strong chance the favourite will win this again as well because I am really keen on Thegirlfrommilan. Last time out she was really impressive when she won by a distance in the quickest time of the day. She was 2nd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last year and that was a really good effort and certainly the best Hunter Chase form in the field. She would probably prefer a bit of cut as she has been impressive on heavy ground, but it was good last time so as long as it isn't really quick it shouldn't be an issue for her. She looks a decent horse and is the one they all have to beat.
The only other one I think has a serious chance is the 2nd favourite Mister Robbo. This is mainly based on his 2nd to Road To Rome at Clifton in December. I have watched that race and they went toe to toe for most of the race and the time was quick as well. He went down by less than a length and although the winner improved after that it was still a top effort in the context of this race. Next time out he was really disappointing at Howick, but he bounced back at Didmarton when winning by 15L. I was there that day and visually it looked quite impressive, but the 2nd has done nothing for the form since and the favourite ended up getting injured, so I think he had very little to beat that day. The time wasn't all that quick either. He's been off since then, but he looks the main danger to the favourite based on that Road To Rome form.
Pink Eyed Pedro was 8th in this in 2017 and then a well beaten 4th last year. He really ought to have been up to winning a handicap off a mark of 93 last year, but he could only manage a couple of 3rd and a 2nd. For me the favourite is capable of running up to a mark higher than that and Mister Robbo could well be as well. He won a point easy on his first run this year a couple of weeks ago and as much as I can see him improving on last year's 4th I just think at the very least Thegirlfrommilan is the better horse.
Fateh was a 3L 2nd to a horse who carried 11lbs less last time at Llanfrynach, but the winning time of that race was 2 seconds slower than Thegirlfrommilan's winning time and she won by a distance! He was in with a chance when unseating at Cocklebarrow on his first run since May 2017 and then won a match before that 2nd. I respect connections, but he looks to have a bit to find.
Accordini is of a bit of interest. He was 5th in the Ffos Las mud, but the run wasn't without promise on his first run of the season in December. He then won at Howick in a quickish time for a maiden and then unseated when odds on last time. I think he could potentially be quite useful and James King takes the mount, but it is hard to see him being good enough at the moment to be winning this.
High Hatton has the form to be competitive in this, but he has also been disappointing on many occasions including when 2nd on his only start of the season at 1/2 at Larkhill last month. He did bleed that day though so at least there was an excuse. On his best form he could hit the frame, but I think it is hard to trust him.
Moreece looked fairly progressive in 2017, but missed 2018 and he hasn't done a great deal in 3 runs this year. Might be able to find his form, but even that 2017 form wouldn't be good enough to win this.
For me Thegirlfrommilan is a confident selection and if they get a bit of rain then even better. I do want some coverage on Mister Robbo though because a repeat of that Clifton form would mean he is by far the main danger.
Thegirlfrommilan 3.5pts @ 11/8 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor
Mister Robbo 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and most others

Liverpool vs Huddersfield
The Premier League title race takes centre stage on Friday night when Liverpool host already relegated Huddersfield in an 8pm kick-off from Anfield. Can the Reds leapfrog league leaders Manchester City with a win and maintain the pressure on their title rivals?
Liverpool are doing everything they can to stay in the title race. Jurgen Klopp's men are undefeated in the league since their 3rd January loss to Manchester City. In addition to that, the Reds have now won six league games in a row including keeping back-to-back clean sheets.
Huddersfield are a contradictory tale with Jan Siewert's side having already known their relegation fate for a number of weeks now. The Terriers are in 20th place with just 14 points accumulated so far this season. It's now 20 defeats from their last 22 league matches and that includes 7 league losses on the bounce. Easy to see why the bookies heavily favour Liverpool here. Especially because Huddersfield have only won 1 of their 17 away games in the league this season. It could also be the fact that Huddersfield haven't won at Liverpool since 18th August, 1956.
As everyone has suggested, there's no value in a home win. It seems almost inevitable. However, it's worth noting that despite Huddersfield not getting the results this season they hardly ever get properly turned over by teams. Only on 4 occasions in their last 22 league games has a team beaten them by more than 2 goals. I can see something similar happening here with the Liverpool nerves. The longer Huddersfield dig in, the more nervy the home fans may get. I'm thinking a handicap for Huddersfield might be worth a bet here.
Huddersfield +4 @ 1.62 with Sportingbet
Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 2.48 with 888Sport
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It was natural that after such a good run of things that there was going to be a drop off and there was little luck on Tuesday. Exclusive Rights clearly didn't run her race at all as she was the first one beaten. Carter Mckay did it easy enough although he beat very little so hard to know what sort of level he is at really. At Ludlow I thought Natalie's ride on Virak was superb. She didn't allow Now Ben to get a moment's piece in front and although he bled I reckon it could have been down to the fact he was put under so much pressure. It was probably the hardest race he has ever had and the pressure meant he bled. Virak still looks classy and if he went to Stratford for the Foxhunters I think he would have a serious chance.
Two races on Thursday and I will start with Kempton which should be a simple win for Monsieur Gibraltar. This looks an easy task and he shouldn't really come out of first gear to win. Treat Yourself was a really good 2nd in this race last year, but that run sticks out like a sore thumb compared to his other pointing and hunter chase runs. If he repeated it he might have a chance of 2nd place, but surely the chances of that have to be slim. Boher Call was 4th in this last year, but the rest of his form is nothing special at all. He did win last time, but it was a 3 runner Hunt Members. Scorpion Star looks to have no chance. That leaves us with Witness In Court who was firmly on the downgrade when last seen in 2017. The trainer doesn't often run one in this sphere and it is interesting that McCain has decided to send him all the way to Kempton as his only runner on the card. The horse must be showing something as he could easily have been retired and given the others hardly set a tough standard he really ought to be finishing 2nd if he is to have any sort of racing future.
Monsieur Gibraltar to beat Witness In Court 1pt f/c
I was really pleased that Perth have named their Hunter Chase on Thursday after Creevytennant. Those of you who have followed my stuff for a while will know how much I loved the horse and it was a real shame when he lost his life at Ludlow last year. He had such a good record at Perth and as the race he won the last couple of years is being run in a slightly different guise next month, this is the race they have decided to name after him. 
It is an interesting little race as well which looks between Play The Ace, Mr Mercurial, Double Whammy and Forgotten Gold. Play The Ace has already won a Hunter Chase as he took the Sedgefield race we had on Tuesday 3 years ago before he joined Peter Bowen. I thought he was useful and might have had a handicap or two in him, but I am amazed he got as high in the ratings as 139 as I didn't think he would be that good. At the age of 10 he is the youngest horse in the field and I guess they feel he is too high in the handicap now so they may as well try Hunter Chases again. If he won it wouldn't surprise me, but I have always thought he wants a shorter trip than this and I am surprised he is as short in the betting as he is. He looks no value to me.
Mr Mercurial was well beaten at Aintree and I have written about his jockey already this season. He is a quirky horse and takes some knowing and he didn't give him a clever ride when 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Kelso. His win at Cheltenham is really strong form on his final start for his former yard and he does have it in him to win this if his jockey can ride him correctly.
Forgotten Gold showed little when 2nd behind Wonderful Charm at Doncaster, but ran better when 3rd at Newbury behind Master Baker when a mistake at the last didn't help matters. I think he needs to step up again to be able to win this, but given this is his 3rd run since a long break he might be up to it.
Double Whammy was a head 2nd to Creevytennant over course and distance last year which was obviously a really good effort on his Hunter Chase debut. He was then 2nd at Kelso when Kilbree Kid reversed the Perth form later in the month. This season he was sent to Cheltenham and not surprisingly he wasn't up to Foxhunter class. If he is back in last seasons form then he has a good chance, but it can only be guess work after the Cheltenham effort and he is 13 now.
I must admit I have gone round in circles a little here as to how to play this race. As mentioned above I think Play The Ace is too short especially over this trip. I was considering Double Whammy, but the Cheltenham run was really poor so their is a question mark about him. I am going to put up Forgotten Gold and Mr Mercurial. Forgotten Gold could be ready to peak now 3rd up and take out the last fence mistake at Newbury and he would have gone very close. If Mr Mercurial's jockey can get it right he is more than capable of winning this and I want him onside as well.
Forgotten Gold 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power
Mr Mercurial 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and most others

Give it a rest. Wasn't funny the first time, now you just sound like a dick.

4/1 seems crazy to me, obviously not certain to win but got to be over priced.