Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
*** July Competition Winners: Well done to Pete1971 (NAPS), Barnsley Chop (KO Cup), bluemal (Goodwood) & Rivrd (Poker) ***
Darran

Non-League Predictions > Play offs

Recommended Posts

It is fair to say Saturday won't be forgotten for a long time. Obviously if Boreham Wood had of won as well we all would have been looking at a massive amount of cash, but to get 6/7 with the prices they were meant that any acca type bet was going to pay very well. At the end of the day to even have a day like that is pretty rare and regular readers will know I am more about the steady profit of singles, but what happened on Saturday is the very reason why I always spend a little covering the accas. Those days are rare though and who knows when it will happen again. It certainly won't be with the play-offs as naturally the prices are shorter. Annoyingly at the time of writing on Bet365 have priced up Step 2 to be promoted markets and no one has priced up Step 3. It is frustrating because I do like a bet on that market, but there we go. I have a selection for all 3 of those markets though and before that I have a single and a treble on the play-off matches taking place this mid-week.

AFC Fylde v Harrogate (Wednesday)

It was no surprise that both these sides made big changes to their line-ups on Saturday. As Flyde manager Dave Challinor said after the loss to Halifax it doesn't matter who you play in the play-offs and they knew they would have a home first game followed by an away 2nd one and then Wembley if they were to win promotion. As I pointed out in my preview of the Halifax game, it made no difference if they finished 4th or 5th and they duly rested players ahead of this game on Wednesday. Harrogate lost 2-1 at Wrexham in a game where both sides made big changes so both sides should be well rested coming into this game, but I am keen on the home side. Fylde's home form has been superb this season and in the home performance league table they were 2nd to Wrexham. In their last 9 games Harrogate have only managed to beat Havant and Gateshead and their form has really trailed off in the last 2/3 months. I would be surprised if Fylde didn't have a bit too much for them here and at 23/20 with Betfred they look a decent bet.

National League play-off winners

So I think Fylde will get through to play Solihull and I would imagine it will probably be Wrexham going to Salford in the game. Whoever Salford play I think they will beat them and get through to the final. I said pre-season that getting Graham Alexander in as manager was a mistake and for me his lack of knowledge of the National League was the reason they didn't win the division. When they went on their dreadful run mid season it really did seem like Alexander would be lucky to keep his job and after they lost to Eastleigh on February 23rd he most have been close to the chop. However, he clearly learnt what was needed and he then made Salford's defence very tight and in 9 games they conceded just once and that was a penalty. I wouldn't read too much into their last 3 results especially the one on Saturday against Hartlepool as the fact Orient kept winning meant they were always playing catch up towards the end. I really do think they will win the play-offs and as much as Solihull or Fylde would be tough opponents I think they would have enough to beat either of them. Solihull have had an amazing season and Tim Flowers would be my manager of the year. They never dropped away and kept up the pressure on Orient right to the end. I can't help thinking though that the play-offs will be a step too far to them either in the semi's or the final itself. I think the 7/4 with Betfred for Salford to win promotion at the first time of asking is well worth taking. If they don't happen to do it this term then I think they will walk away with the title next season.

Treble

Spennymoor have finished the season really strongly and I will go into more detail in the outright preview as to why I think they can go up. They host Bradford in their first game and the form of the two sides could hardly be any different. Bradford have only beaten Nuneaton in their last 8 games and they have lost 5 of those. I don't see any reason why the form of the respective sides shouldn't continue and hopefully Spennymoor don't have too many issues. One of the reasons I am frustrated about the lack of Step 3 outright prices is because I really fancy South Shields and Kings Lynn. South Shields' away form cost them the league for me as they really struggled away from home early on in the season especially. At home they lost once all season and given they finished 2nd they will play both games at home. Buxton finished 21 points behind them and although that doesn't always mean the better team end up getting promotion, South Shields should have too much for them. Kings Lynn started the season very slowly and they eventually sacked their manager and last season's boss Ian Culverhouse came back. They soon flew up the table and although Kettering were too far gone to catch, they did end up catching Stourbridge for 2nd after they beat them on Saturday. If Culverhouse had of been in charge at the start of the season they would have pushed Kettering close and they only lost 2 games at home all season. They should be able to beat Stafford Wednesday's first match.

National League South Play-Off winners

Woking are way too short to win promotion straight back to the National League. Granted they made 4 changes for the game against Gloucester and they had nothing to play for, but I wasn't that impressed especially in defence. The back 4 was the normal back 4 as well so that is no excuse. For me Torquay were by far the best team in the division and there wasn't a great deal between the most of the other sides in the league. Strictly speaking being guaranteed home matches in the play-offs should be to their advantage, but they lost 7 times at home compared to just 3 times away from home. Woking have also won just one of their last 8 games. Woking will host Bath or Wealdstone and both of those teams lost fewer games away than Woking lost at home. With that in mind I hope that Welling can end up with a home game in the final after beating Chelmsford on Sunday. Steve King has his haters, but his managerial record is seriously impressive especially at this level. Given Welling had a budge cut during the season it was really impressive that they were still able to finish 3rd in the league. They come into the play-offs in superb form having lost just 2 of their last 10 games and they only lost twice at home all season winning 15 of their 21 home games. I think they have it in them to get the job done and they look overpriced to me as although Woking might do it they are stupidly short at 11/10.

National League North Play-Off winners

The North is tricky to call as all the teams bar Bradford come into the play-offs in strong form. It could also be said that Chorley aren't coming here in as good form as they would like as they have only won of their final 6 games and although they did beat champions Stockport, that win put them in the driving seat to win the title themselves and they just couldn't do it. They went 12 games unbeaten at the start of the season and it's fair to say that start is why they finished 2nd rather than their finish. For that reason I am happy to take them on. Brackley have claims for sure as only Spennymoor have beaten them in their last 10, whilst they were the only team to beat Altrincham in their last 10 games. Blyth have won 7 games on the bounce and although it was a fairly kind set of fixtures they did beat Stockport in that spell. Like Bradford though the people in charge of the club don't want promotion and the have already cut the budget for next season. The players are obviously keen though and I wouldn't rule them out totally. Spennymoor though look to be hitting form at the right time. The were going through a dodgy spell and even lost 3-0 to relegated Ashton at the beginning of the month, but they then won four on the bounce including beating Brackley and Chorley. There is no real difference in their away or home form which is important I think given they will have to play at home and away. They also might have to play Brackley and Chorley they won't fear them either given they have beaten them in the last couple of weeks. I think they are value at 5/1 for promotion.

AFC Fylde 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Spennymoor, South Shields and Kings Lynn 1pt treble @ 4.7/1 with Marathon (Now a double after the Kings Lynn game was called off)

National League Play-Off winners Salford 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred

National League South Play-Off winners Welling 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365

National League North Play-Off winners Spennymoor 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bartonbank said:

Does that mean Kings Lynn have a bye or another team will step in at a later date?

No idea waiting for the FA/League to say more about it. My guess is that it might mean a new team come in as it will be a points deduction. In my view though both games should have been cancelled as both games in my view need to be played on the same day to make it fair for everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brilliant work again Darran. :clap:clap. Even allowing for the voiding of the Kings Lynn game, profit so far, so any of the Salford, Welling and Spennymoor promotion tips will be icing on the cake. Followed to the letter this time, no multiples, I thought lightning couldn't strike twice in a week, but I'd be more than happy if they all came in in singles and the one treble (now double).

I doff my cap Sir......

Edited by Shep65

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Darran

Simply brilliant:clap

Do you have any team news about wrexham vs eastleigh,Carshalton vs merstham & Haringey vs tonbridge?

I do fancy tonbridge and would like to punt a little on eastleigh?

What do you think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 

@Darran

Simply brilliant:clap

Do you have any team news about wrexham vs eastleigh,Carshalton vs merstham & Haringey vs tonbridge?

I do fancy tonbridge and would like to punt a little on eastleigh?

What do you think?

I didn’t think there was much value in the tonbridge price myself. As for Eastleigh I do think they have a better chance than people think but at the same time Wrexham have been so strong at home this season I do think they are the most likely winners

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today sums up how the play-offs can be won on tiny margins as Welling lose to a free kick and Spennymoor lose in a penalty shootout. 

I plan on doing a FA Trophy preview to end the season next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.