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Racing Chat - Thursday 2nd May


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Well a £10 treble at Punchestown on Wednesday on Zero Ten (which looks an absolute machine), Minella Indo and LiveLoveLaugh was a close miss and would have paid £1200. If only Ruby had thought of us punters instead of himself :p as I have no doubt he would have got the better of O O Seven if it were him in the saddle and not David Mullins (who looked like he was going round Badminton of Burleigh at some of the fences rather than in a race and totally missing the last)  I am talking through my pocket of course and who can possibly compare to Ruby? A sad day indeed.... onto tomorrows action:

4.15 Punchestown - Minds Eye (E/W) 8/1 NAP

Clearly a mind of his own this one, after running out last time at Fairyhouse when having made most of the running up to that point.  A horse with plenty of talent though, having already beaten Us and Them, at Wexford earlier in the season (albeit it was us and thems first run of the season) A rating of 139 looks fair and the cheekpieces are applied which will hopefully straighten his crazy tendencies out and its nice to see Rachael Blackmore keep the ride on this one and not ride Moon over Germany, who she won on at Aintree.  Snugsborough Hall is a danger as was closing in on my selection last time before he was carried out through no fault of his own.  Bun Doran looks too high in the handicap in my opinion. Impact Factor won the race Minds Eye and Snugsborough Hall didn't complete but has been put up 6 lbs and looked lucky that day. Minds Eye has already finished ahead of Moon Over Germany at Leopardstown this season when giving him 3lbs, tomorrow he receives 8 lbs, a 11 lbs swing! Also, I don't think the ground will be soft enough for Moon Over Germany.  So, I think its well worth taking the risk that the cheekpieces will work and Minds Eye will put it all in and come out on top at 8/1, a cracking each way bet and maybe a little reverse forecast with Snugsborough Hall?

 

4.50 Punchestown - Josies Orders 8/11

Well I thought this was going to be odds against, but at the price its a bit off putting eventhough Enda Bolger, king of the banks, should win this one with Josies Orders. This looks a weak renewal and I can't see past this one so decide yourself if you want to include it in this treble, or just do a ew double on Minds Eye and Ornua.

 

6.40 Punchestown - Ornua (best price 16s currently at Paddy Power, 12s elsewhere)

First and foremost this looks a massive price for a solid 2 mile horse that has proven himself at the highest level.  I think this is down to the flattering rating of Duc de Genievres and the impressiveness of Defi De Seuils season, but he has to now prove himself at this trip over fences. He is not the biggest and at the the faster tempo I think his jumping may be found out as Ornua likes to make the running and will definitely ask questions of Defi de Seuil. Defi has beaten Lostintranslation over 2m4f twice this season, but as we saw at Aintree the latter is better over 3 miles and Defi has beaten him for pace more than anything.  Can he beat a solid 2 miler for pace? I don't think so.  Duc Des Genievres looked very impressive at Cheltenham in the Arkle but the ground was really soft that day and I think he was flattered as the race looked sub standard and had a few fallers in it. Therefore the 2/1 looks skinny.  Ornua was running in the Queen Mother and I think was fancied to run well.  I would much rather a horse at 12/1-16/1 having been able to make the running in the Queen Mother, than a novice running in a below par Arkle on poor ground.

 

 

 

 

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