Hunter Chase - 7.30 Chepstow

[Darran]

Nice to get back to winning ways and there was a nice drift on Mr Mercurial at Perth who returned 5/1. It still wasn't the best of rides as he jumped the last a good few lengths clear, but was only just over 2L clear at the line as he yet again idled on the run in. It was lucky that Double Whammy had done his running because if it was a fresher horse coming from behind I think he would have been beaten. Still he held on and it was a good effort as I think the 2nd has run his race. I'm sure we will see him again before the season is out. As for Double Whammy this is now the 3rd time he has been 2nd in a Hunter Chase and he has bumped into 3 decent horses. He probably deserves to find one of these now. Play The Ace was a massive drifter and he didn't stay as I thought he wouldn't. With this run behind him though over a shorter trip he might win before the season is out. Forgotten Gold was a huge disappointment and this clearly wasn't his running. I wonder if he might be retired now. Purcell's Bridge ran above himself to finish 3rd, but hard to know if it was a one off or a return to form.

Monsieur Gibraltar l was really well backed having been 1/4 last night. To go off 1/16 shows that some serious punters were getting stuck in. He won easily and I suspect he will be at Cheltenham next week for the 2m race he won last season. The forecast was landed easily and for it to pay over even money on the CSF was pretty good really.

The last Hunter Chase before Cheltenham next week is the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow and this race has been all about the well backed favourites because they have won the last 5 runnings of this and I think all 5 bolted up up as well. I think there is a strong chance the favourite will win this again as well because I am really keen on Thegirlfrommilan. Last time out she was really impressive when she won by a distance in the quickest time of the day. She was 2nd in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last year and that was a really good effort and certainly the best Hunter Chase form in the field. She would probably prefer a bit of cut as she has been impressive on heavy ground, but it was good last time so as long as it isn't really quick it shouldn't be an issue for her. She looks a decent horse and is the one they all have to beat.

The only other one I think has a serious chance is the 2nd favourite Mister Robbo. This is mainly based on his 2nd to Road To Rome at Clifton in December. I have watched that race and they went toe to toe for most of the race and the time was quick as well. He went down by less than a length and although the winner improved after that it was still a top effort in the context of this race. Next time out he was really disappointing at Howick, but he bounced back at Didmarton when winning by 15L. I was there that day and visually it looked quite impressive, but the 2nd has done nothing for the form since and the favourite ended up getting injured, so I think he had very little to beat that day. The time wasn't all that quick either. He's been off since then, but he looks the main danger to the favourite based on that Road To Rome form.

Pink Eyed Pedro was 8th in this in 2017 and then a well beaten 4th last year. He really ought to have been up to winning a handicap off a mark of 93 last year, but he could only manage a couple of 3rd and a 2nd. For me the favourite is capable of running up to a mark higher than that and Mister Robbo could well be as well. He won a point easy on his first run this year a couple of weeks ago and as much as I can see him improving on last year's 4th I just think at the very least Thegirlfrommilan is the better horse.

Fateh was a 3L 2nd to a horse who carried 11lbs less last time at Llanfrynach, but the winning time of that race was 2 seconds slower than Thegirlfrommilan's winning time and she won by a distance! He was in with a chance when unseating at Cocklebarrow on his first run since May 2017 and then won a match before that 2nd. I respect connections, but he looks to have a bit to find.

Accordini is of a bit of interest. He was 5th in the Ffos Las mud, but the run wasn't without promise on his first run of the season in December. He then won at Howick in a quickish time for a maiden and then unseated when odds on last time. I think he could potentially be quite useful and James King takes the mount, but it is hard to see him being good enough at the moment to be winning this.

High Hatton has the form to be competitive in this, but he has also been disappointing on many occasions including when 2nd on his only start of the season at 1/2 at Larkhill last month. He did bleed that day though so at least there was an excuse. On his best form he could hit the frame, but I think it is hard to trust him.

Moreece looked fairly progressive in 2017, but missed 2018 and he hasn't done a great deal in 3 runs this year. Might be able to find his form, but even that 2017 form wouldn't be good enough to win this.

For me Thegirlfrommilan is a confident selection and if they get a bit of rain then even better. I do want some coverage on Mister Robbo though because a repeat of that Clifton form would mean he is by far the main danger.

Thegirlfrommilan 3.5pts @ 11/8 with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor

Mister Robbo 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365 and most others

Edited April 25, 2019 by Darran

[yossa6133]

Crikey 1/16! It still had to jump round.

Edited April 25, 2019 by yossa6133

[Darran]

51 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Crikey 1/16! It still had to jump round.

Yeah I was amazed by how much it shortened. It was a shorter price than most of the wins Winx had and she had no fences in the way!

[yossa6133]

Way too many mistakes unfortunately, sure she would have made a race of it otherwise.

[Darran]

If you jump like that then you are going to struggle to win a race and Thegirlfrommilan's awful jump at the first set the tone for the race. I'm sort of loathed to blame the ground as she can do it on a sounder surface, but it could just be that a softer surface would have helped her. She tried hard and clearly is a useful horse, but Pink Eyed Pedro put it altogether on the night and connections clearly fancied him given how strong he was in the market. Given how many times I backed him in those handicaps last year for him to go and do that was especially frustrating because for me that was a much better performance than a 93 rated horse. He is only 8 so it could just be he has improved and it will be interesting to see where he goes from here. Master Robbo ran a shocker and clearly that Clifton form is not to be trusted. As I said the Didmarton win on the form book looked nothing special and this run backed that up although it was especially bad.

So that's it for a week and I will be back on Thursday for the Cheltenham Hunter Chase night preview. For the first time it also clashes with the Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase so that's 8 races for me to get my teeth stuck into.