Hunter Chases - 4.35 Perth & 7.50 Kempton

[Darran]

It was natural that after such a good run of things that there was going to be a drop off and there was little luck on Tuesday. Exclusive Rights clearly didn't run her race at all as she was the first one beaten. Carter Mckay did it easy enough although he beat very little so hard to know what sort of level he is at really. At Ludlow I thought Natalie's ride on Virak was superb. She didn't allow Now Ben to get a moment's piece in front and although he bled I reckon it could have been down to the fact he was put under so much pressure. It was probably the hardest race he has ever had and the pressure meant he bled. Virak still looks classy and if he went to Stratford for the Foxhunters I think he would have a serious chance.

Two races on Thursday and I will start with Kempton which should be a simple win for Monsieur Gibraltar. This looks an easy task and he shouldn't really come out of first gear to win. Treat Yourself was a really good 2nd in this race last year, but that run sticks out like a sore thumb compared to his other pointing and hunter chase runs. If he repeated it he might have a chance of 2nd place, but surely the chances of that have to be slim. Boher Call was 4th in this last year, but the rest of his form is nothing special at all. He did win last time, but it was a 3 runner Hunt Members. Scorpion Star looks to have no chance. That leaves us with Witness In Court who was firmly on the downgrade when last seen in 2017. The trainer doesn't often run one in this sphere and it is interesting that McCain has decided to send him all the way to Kempton as his only runner on the card. The horse must be showing something as he could easily have been retired and given the others hardly set a tough standard he really ought to be finishing 2nd if he is to have any sort of racing future.

Monsieur Gibraltar to beat Witness In Court 1pt f/c

I was really pleased that Perth have named their Hunter Chase on Thursday after Creevytennant. Those of you who have followed my stuff for a while will know how much I loved the horse and it was a real shame when he lost his life at Ludlow last year. He had such a good record at Perth and as the race he won the last couple of years is being run in a slightly different guise next month, this is the race they have decided to name after him. 

It is an interesting little race as well which looks between Play The Ace, Mr Mercurial, Double Whammy and Forgotten Gold. Play The Ace has already won a Hunter Chase as he took the Sedgefield race we had on Tuesday 3 years ago before he joined Peter Bowen. I thought he was useful and might have had a handicap or two in him, but I am amazed he got as high in the ratings as 139 as I didn't think he would be that good. At the age of 10 he is the youngest horse in the field and I guess they feel he is too high in the handicap now so they may as well try Hunter Chases again. If he won it wouldn't surprise me, but I have always thought he wants a shorter trip than this and I am surprised he is as short in the betting as he is. He looks no value to me.

Mr Mercurial was well beaten at Aintree and I have written about his jockey already this season. He is a quirky horse and takes some knowing and he didn't give him a clever ride when 2nd to Shantou Flyer at Kelso. His win at Cheltenham is really strong form on his final start for his former yard and he does have it in him to win this if his jockey can ride him correctly.

Forgotten Gold showed little when 2nd behind Wonderful Charm at Doncaster, but ran better when 3rd at Newbury behind Master Baker when a mistake at the last didn't help matters. I think he needs to step up again to be able to win this, but given this is his 3rd run since a long break he might be up to it.

Double Whammy was a head 2nd to Creevytennant over course and distance last year which was obviously a really good effort on his Hunter Chase debut. He was then 2nd at Kelso when Kilbree Kid reversed the Perth form later in the month. This season he was sent to Cheltenham and not surprisingly he wasn't up to Foxhunter class. If he is back in last seasons form then he has a good chance, but it can only be guess work after the Cheltenham effort and he is 13 now.

I must admit I have gone round in circles a little here as to how to play this race. As mentioned above I think Play The Ace is too short especially over this trip. I was considering Double Whammy, but the Cheltenham run was really poor so their is a question mark about him. I am going to put up Forgotten Gold and Mr Mercurial. Forgotten Gold could be ready to peak now 3rd up and take out the last fence mistake at Newbury and he would have gone very close. If Mr Mercurial's jockey can get it right he is more than capable of winning this and I want him onside as well.

Forgotten Gold 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power

Mr Mercurial 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 and most others

[Noodle bowl]

Boom legend