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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat - Saturday 26th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, jonjo said:

    Hi, you say that just one winner from the last 9 has been priced at 11/1 or more? The last winner was 33/1, in 2019 Dashel Drasher won at 12/1, in 2018 Sizing Tenesse also won at 12/1, in 2013 Triolo Dalene won at 20/1? Apologies if I'm wrong and good luck today.

    I should have stated that this is the forecast price. I don't use the SP because we don't know what this is until the off and it is therefore of no use if we want to select the horse prior to the race and take the early price.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 26th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This weekend’s big handicap is the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury. To us old timers this will always be known as the Hennessy, 1st run in 1957. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 3.05 and 16 go to post.

    It is often a good guide for Cheltenham. Native River won this race in 2016 before going on to win that year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. 4 other horses have been placed in this race before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.

    Many Clouds won this in 2014 before going on to win that year’s Grand National.

    Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

    TRUST THE ODDS

    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

    1.       The market is a good guide for this race. Horses at odds of more than 11/1 have a record of 1 win from 114 runners. Horses shorter than this have 8 wins from 55 runners. 

    2.       It is better to have experience prior to this race. Horses that have had less than 15 runs have a record of 3 wins from 94 runners compared to 6 wins from 75 runners for their more experienced rivals.

    3.       Horses that finished in the 1st 3 last time have a success rate of 7 from 90. Those that finished further down the field have only won 2 from 79 efforts.

    This reduces the field to 5, LE MILOS (7/1), BUSSELTON (9/1), FIDDLERONTHEROOF (11/1), REMASTERED (15/2) and OUR POWER (12/1).  

    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.

    For those who wish to narrow the field down further there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.

    Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have a record of 0 wins from 31 attempts. This would rule out FIDDLERONTHEROOF, who carries 11st 9lbs.

    A decent rest is desirable. Horses returning within 25 days of their last run have not won any of their 36 attempts. BUSSELTON last ran 66 days ago, OUR POWER 28 days ago.

    Favourites have a good record with 3 winners from 8 runners.  

    Horses bred in Ireland have the best record with 6 from 98 runners. FIDDLERONTHEROOF and OUR POWER are bred in Ireland.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 26th November

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5yo selections

    Lucky 15 in bold

    Doncaster 0.05 Old Page 66.00
    Newcastle 0.30 Twoshotsoftequila 8.00
    Newcastle 1.00 Imperial B G 6.00
    Bangor-on-Dee 1.28 Lounge Lizard 4.00
    Newcastle 1.35 Shantou Lucky 3.00
    Newbury 1.55 Walking On Air 3.50
    Newcastle 2.10 Constitution Hill 0.29
    Wolverhampton 6.50 Visibility 18.00
    Wolverhampton 7.50 Captain Claret 25.00

    Racing Chat- Friday November 25th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 11/24/2022 at 7:54 PM, MCLARKE said:
    COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
    Doncaster 0.35 Ridgeway 100/30
    Newbury 0.45 Frere D'armes 4/1
    Ffos Las 2.05 Marco Island 9/2
    Doncaster 2.55 Heron Creek 11/1
    Ffos Las 3.15 C'Est Quelqu'un 14/1
    Newbury 3.40 Abuffalosoldier 17/2
    Dundalk 7.00 Sheila 40/1

    A better day after 3 blank days

    Abuffalosoldier wins at 17/2, Frere D'armes at 4/1 + 3 losers and 2 NR for a profit on the day of 9.50 points

    Total 23 from 99, LSP 25.40 points

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