MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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BET365 4/1 TV offer selections
I was going to call this a day but the last selection, Djelo, won at 11/1 so I'll perserver a bit longer.
This meant that November showed a profit of £100 despite just 2 winners from 18 selections.
Overall still a bit rubbish with 39 winners from 332 selections and a loss of £2,647.50.
Today's selections
SAND 2.20 Hermes Boy 5/1 AINT 2.40 Gunsight Ridge 4/1 AINT 3.15 Harbour Lake 4/1 SAND 3.30 Eclair De Guye 11/2 - Villa Chris, kensland, black rabbit and 2 others
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28 minutes ago, jonjo said:
Hi, its a system based on where the horse ran last time to where the horse is running this time!
I think they used to run a similar system in the Raceform Update many years ago called where the winner comes from. I think it used to be quite successful.
- kensland and The Equaliser
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5yo selections
Lucky 15 in bold
COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS Wetherby 0.48 Court At Slip 7.00 Sandown 1.10 Halo Des Obeaux 5.00 Wetherby 1.58 Kellahen 2.25 Chepstow 2.12 Could Talkaboutit 14.00 Wetherby 2.33 Harry Du Berlais 6.50 Chepstow 3.22 Haston Clermont 20.00 Sandown 3.30 Red Happy 28.00 Wolverhampton 5.20 Super Den 6.00 Wolverhampton 7.20 King Of The South 1.88 Wolverhampton 7.50 Jack The Savage 66.00 Wolverhampton 8.20 Daheer 12.00 -
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This weekend’s big handicap is the Becher Handicap Chase, run over the Grand National course at Aintree. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 6 or older. It should be a good spectacle to watch as there are 21 fences for the horses to overcome. Off time is 2.05 and 23 go to post.
It is not a good guide for Cheltenham but 2 winners have gone on to win the Grand National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch.
Many bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
WATCH THE CALORIES
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
1. It is difficult to lug heavy weights around this course. There have been 64 horses that have carried more than 10st 12lbs and only 1 has won. Lighter weights have a record of 8 from 108.
2. Horses bred in Ireland have a poor record with just 2 wins from 94 attempts compared to 7 from 78 for those horses bred in other countries.
3. This is not a good race for fancied runners. Horses with forecast odds of 16/1 or higher have a record of 5 wins from 84 runners compared to 4 from 88 for their more fancied opponents.
Just 2 horses fit these criteria, DIDERO VALLIS (22/1) and PERCUSSION (18/1).
I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5/6 places.
Further statistics that may prove relevant.
French bred horses have a particularly good record with 5 wins from 51 runs. DIDERO VALLIS is bred in France, PERCUSSION in the UK.
Horses ideally need time to recover from their last run. Horses that last ran less than 22 days ago have a record of 0 wins from 36 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS last ran 13 days ago, PERCUSSION 28.
Relatively unexposed horses have a decent record with 6 winners from 90 runners compared to 3 from 82 for their more experienced rivals. DIDERO VALLIS has run 31 times, PERCUSSION 12.
The ideal age is 9, with 4 wins from 43 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS is 9, PERCUSSION is 7.
Gavin Sheehan, who rides PERCUSSION, won this race in 2017 with Blaklion.
Nigel Twiston-Davies has the best record in this race with 6 winners in the last 30 years. This year he saddles Fantastikas.
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SANDOWN 12.00
AUTHORISED SPEED 2/5
BET365
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Dundalk 5.30
MAN OF EDEN 5/2
£20 win BSP
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5yo selections. The wheels have come off this a bit but I will plod on (like some of my horses!)
Lucky 15 in bold
COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS Exeter 12.15 City Chief 2.00 Sedgefield 1.35 Son Of Oz 33.00 Sedgefield 2.10 Shir I Dont Know 40.00 Sandown 2.55 Corrigeen Rock 2.25 Newcastle 6.15 Ballyare 20.00 Dundalk 6.30 Bronze River 20.00 Dundalk 7.00 Diamondsinthesand 9.00 - black rabbit, jonjo, Villa Chris and 3 others
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The following players have qualified for the KO cup this month.
Starts Saturday 3rd December.
Good luck !
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November prize winners
@adamross£60
@andellio£30
@Redphil57£10
@vangovin£30
@Kingdom for£10
If you haven't already done so, please PM with pay-pal details and adresses for merchandise.
Please do not contact PL direct as this may cause confusion.
ALLOW UP TO 21 DAYS FOR PAYMENT
- adamross and Kingdom for
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EXETER 12.15
GELINO BELLO 2/5
BET365
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Wincanton 2.25
HEYDOUR 33/1
£10 EW SKY 4 places SP
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5yo selections
Lucky 15 in bold
COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS Wincanton 0.25 Hiway One O Three 2.50 Leicester 0.47 Ballintubber Boy 7.50 Market Rasen 2.40 Future Benefits 1.75 Chelmsford 6.00 Lost In Time 7.00 Chelmsford 7.00 Company Minx 5.00 Chelmsford 8.00 Spanish Angel 16.00 -
11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Haydock 3.07
Blacklion 17/2
£10 EW SKY 4 places SP
4th.
A good start to the month with a 12/1 winner but downhill after that and a loss of £60 overall.
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Most winners
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@adamrossholds his nerve to take top spot.
@andelliojust fails to win but finishes a honourable 2nd.
@Craig bluenosefinishes like a train with 40/1 Ludlow winner Coastal Sun (gambled into 12/1) to take 3rd place.
@Redphil57also has a big priced last day winner at 18/1 to grab 4th.
- BBBC, Kingdom for, MinellaWorksop and 1 other
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Leicester 2.17
DOLLAR BAE 10/11
BET365
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12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Good luck Michael, surely you will pick an odds-on shot for your final bet. Vangovin needs a good-priced winner and of course, we can never underestimate Alastair's ability to choose a winner at a good price. Very exciting
Correct, I've picked an odds on shot.
I am now odds on favourite to win the competition but we all know what sometimes happens to odds on shots !
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LUDLOW 1.45
MULLENBERG 8/13
WH
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Haydock 3.07
Blacklion 17/2
£10 EW SKY 4 places SP
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Most winners
Also all to play for on the last day
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5yo selections
Lucky 15 on the highlighted
COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS Dundalk 3.00 Maestro Stick 4.00 Ludlow 3.15 Loup De Maulde 3.50 Haydock 3.37 Pyramid Place 30.00 Ludlow 3.45 My Monty 22.00 Kempton 4.15 Spring Glow 2.50 Kempton 5.50 Mabre 12.00 Kempton 7.20 Pistoletto 7.50 Kempton 8.20 Arabescato 7.50 - The Brigadier, jonjo, The Equaliser and 4 others
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Racing chat -Saturday 3rd Dec
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Odds on selection