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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    ADDITIONAL ANNUAL PRIZE

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    2 hours ago, justanotherpunter said:

    Could be a very good idea -

    However some thought could be made to make it more of a challenge -

    Any dumpling could enter the lowest price of the day and claim to have the best strike rate??? as now happens in the main comp.

    Maybe consider no odds on shots allowed and also restrict odds to under 20/1 at time of bet placement to rule out wild 250/1 ew shots

    Also no ew  bets allowed as this would then give meaning to most winners

    Only my thoughts of course - feel free to ignore 

    It is actually quite difficult to achieve the most winners by picking odds on favourites, I should know, I have been trying for quite a while.

    I agree that it is possible to win the monthly comp by picking big priced winners, if you went for 100/1 winners then you would probably get a couple each year and probably win the monthly comp. However I think you would struggle to win the annual comp with this approach.

    Also I have no issue picking each way, these can be the optimum selections dependent on the shape of the race, it has been one of my best strategies over the years.

     

    ADDITIONAL ANNUAL PRIZE

    in NAP of the Day Competition

    Posted

    18 hours ago, bymatrix said:

    Would think £120 would be a good monetary target as it's currently £10 for the monthly most winners so just multiply by 12 , keeps it all mathematically tidy.

    It is difficult to make £10 profit in any single month, to make £120 for 12 months is a very tough ask.

    To make a return of 10% over a year would be a very good return so I think it makes sense to set it at this level.

    To keep the maths simple I suggest a minimum of 200 selections and a minimum profit of £20. 

    Racing Chat - Saturday 10th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5yo selections

    Lucky 15 in bold

    COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
    Cheltenham 0.40 Monmiral 3/10
    Hereford 1.22 Auditoria 15/2
    Cheltenham 1.50 Il Ridoto 11/2
    Doncaster 2.40 Heroique De Maulde 7/4
    Newcastle 2.54 Enemy 1/4
    Doncaster 3.15 Maillot Blanc 3/1
    Newcastle 4.30 Ivatheengine 10/1
    Wolverhampton 4.50 Intervention 7/1
    Wolverhampton 5.50 Theotherside 20/1
    Wolverhampton 6.20 King Charles 7/1

    Racing Chat - Saturday 10th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This weekend’s big handicap is the AIS December Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham. This premier handicap is run over 2 miles, 4 furlongs and 127 yards and is open to horses aged 4 or older. Off time is 1.50 and 15 go to post.

    Frodon has won this twice before going on to win at the Cheltenham festival. Coole Cody won this last year before going on to win at the festival at odds of 22/1.  

    William Hill offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

    AGAINST THE ODDS

    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

    1.       It is best to side with those horses in the middle of the market. Those horses with forecast odds less than 8/1 have a record of 0 wins from 29 runners. Those with odds greater than 12/1 have a record of 0 from 41. All the winners have been between 8/1 and 12/1 with 9 winners from 49 runners.  

    2.       It is difficult to carry high weights in this race. Horses carrying more than 10st 10lb have 3 wins from 60 attempts compared to 6 from 40 for the lower weights.

    3.       Experienced horses perform better than their less experienced opponents. Horses who have run more than 18 times have recorded 4 wins from 33 attempts compared to 5 from 87 for their less experienced opponents.

    4.       It is helpful to have had a recent run. Only 1 horse (from 40 attempts) has won this after a lay-off of more than 28 days.

    Only 1 horse matches these criteria, DEYRANN DE CARJACJ, available at 14/1.  

    Further statistics that may prove relevant.

    As already indicated favourites have a poor record (0 from 9). For 2nd favourites it is 0 from 14.

    The ideal age is 8, with 3 wins from 33 attempts.

    Irish bred horses have the best record with 5 wins from 53 runners.

    Paul Nicholls has the best record in this race with 5 winners in the last 13 years. This year he saddles Simply The Betts and Il Ridito.

    Racing Chat - Friday 9th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    5yo selections

    Lucky 15 in bold

    COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
    Cheltenham 1.15 Hidden Heroics 2.75
    Cheltenham 2.25 Nassalam 6.50
    Wolverhampton 4.40 Nellie French 16.00
    Southwell 5.15 Never Dark 3.50
    Southwell 6.15 Wrens Rose 12.00
    Southwell 7.15 Gypsy Whisper 22.00
    Dundalk 8.00 Adams Barbour 28.00
    Southwell 8.15 Martin's Brig 18.00

    A good day with Martin's Brig winning at 18/1 (backed into 5/2fav), Wrens Rose winning at 12/1 and Hidden Heroics winning at 11/4 (40p R4). 1 NR and 4 losers for a profit on the day of 27.65 points.

    Total 34 from 178, LSP 23.47

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