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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    ON THE RIVER won yesteday at 3/1 + 3 losers for a breakeven day.

    Current profit 5.54 points.

    Top rated today is Crystal Delight but that was achieved on the AW.

    2nd top rated in that race is DUAL IDENTITY and it is top rated on todays good going. Available at 6/1, I'll have a bet at BSP.

    Top rated in total and on the going are

    Epsom 3.55 WYNTER WILDES 15/1 - Ladbrokes EW (4 places)

    Epsom 4.30 MIDAIR 5/4 - BSP

    Epsom 5.05 MR BALOO 10/3 - BSP

    Yarmouth 2.00 READY OR NOT 8/1 - BETMGM

    Yarmouth 4.20 SPANISH MANE 80/1 - BETMGM EW (4 places)

    Yarmouth 5.25 BATCHELOR BOY 5/1 - BSP

     

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    Now put them in order of importance, i would take a good guess that different punters put them in different orders. You could add on stopwatch (RP) big fields v small fields and even naps the list is almost endless. Once you made your selection, The big question i would ask is- what was it based on? did you end up using speed figures or form?

    The order of importance changes depending which type of racing I'm looking at.

    For my current AW system the criteria (in order of importance) are age, draw, weight and forecast odds. 

    For my current NH hurdle system the criteria are number of career starts, claiming jockey, sex, weight and forecast odds.

    When I settle on a system using my speed figures I will probably end up with a different set of criteria although I suspect forecast odds will remain a fundamental part of it.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    ICE MAX won yesterday + 2 losers for a loss of 0.01 points on the day

    Current profit 5.54 points

    Top rated horse today is Lord Protector in the 2.52 at Pontefract. However that was on good going compared to todays soft / heavy so not a bet for me.

    2nd top rated in that race is TOSHIZOU and it is rated top on both soft going and heavy going. Only won once in his career and that was over 3 years ago in Ireland but I'll have a bet at 7/1 with BV.

    Top rated in total and on the going are

    Pontefract 3.22 ON THE RIVER 3/1 - BV

    Windsor 5.50 CASTLE IN THE SAND 15/8 - BSP

    Windsor 6.20 LUSAKA 25/1 - Ladbrokes

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

    Trainer form maybe, always something I think I should pay more attention to!

    What the actual ground is compared to the going description i.e working your ratings out after the time of first race is known. Saw someone say recently that they never bet on the first race for this reason. 

    Temperature, there must be horses out there that only perform when it's warm. Not seen much about this but it would make sense.

    Market mover? Drifted like a barge or smashed in.

    I spent ages looking at trainer form but couldn't find any angle that gave me an edge

    Interesting about the first race , I'll include this as one of the areas to investigate with my speed figures

    Again the temperature angle is interesting. Not sure if I can incorporate the weather into my analysis ! I have noticed though that some of my successful winners based on speed figures seemed to achieve their speed figure at a similar time of year. That could be an interesting angle.

    Market movers are also interesting. I always suspect the worse when I see my horse has drifted and the backed horses always seem to win, again anecdotal rater than based on actual data.

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    When I first started betting back in the early 80s I used to follow tipsters, mostly Newsboy from the Daily Mirror (a good socialist rag). I struggled to make a profit, probably because his tips were widely followed.

    As I am always on the quest for value rather than winners it might make sense to bet against popular tipsters as their selections are probably overbet.

    My data doesn't include such tipsters data so it's not an area I can really comment on with authority.

    Spread betting (for racing) still on my to do list !

    HORSE RACING VARIABLES

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    There has been debate in the Speed Ratings thread about the importance of going and distance. This has raised the question about which are the most important variables to consider when making selections. I will start with my list in order of importance. Please fell free to comment or add your own lists.

    Odds (both current race and previous race, exclude long odds)

    Days since last run (higher preferred)

    Race distance v distance of previous races

    Finishing position of previous runs (not including last run)

    Draw (this list is for flat racing only)

    Number of runs

    Number of runs (current season)

    Going

    Weight

    Class movement

    Country horse bred in

    Race distance

    Claiming jockey

    Winning / losing distance of last race

    Turf / AW

    Weight v previous run

    Official Rating

    Finish position last run

    Same / different jockey

    Same / different course

    Number of runners in previous race

    Sex of horse

    Age

    Previous course

    Handicap / non handicap

    Official rating v last run

    Official rating v last winning run

    Maiden / non maiden

    Course winner

    Races since last win

    Month

    Course

    Distance winner

    Beaten favourite

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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