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Posts posted by MCLARKE

  1. 51 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Definitely a degree of good fortune with how the winners have clustered if you’re down to LS singles. It’s the one winner bonus that can turn a loss into a small profit but the doubles and trebles can only multiply your edge if you’ve got one. You’ve got to be in it to win it though!

    Maybe it’s just May madness. My anytime system has returned a 40% ROI this month which is unusually high and you’re going to see far greater variance than me given I’m backing singles around the 2/1 to 3/1 mark.

    My ROI on L15s so far is 442% !

    My "normal" returns are around the 6% mark.

    I would expect some reversion to the mean at some stage.

    It's a good job that I didn't have these sort of returns when I first started betting, I'd have probably packed my job in and booked a one way ticket to the Cayman Islands.

  2. 1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

    Would I be correct in thinking that, at the moment, your selections would be profitable to level stakes singles?

    You've had an enormous dollop of good fortune if not!

    Believe it or not up until Monday my selections in the lucky 15s have been very poor with a level stakes loss of 98 points from 472 selections. However I was not overly concerned because the systems that these selections have been drawn from have been profitable.

    So depending on how you look it I have been very lucky or my previous seletions had been unlucky and I was due a change in fortune.

  3. 2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    The next decision is Stakes which have been touched on before, my perspective is based on practicality and experience-that is the long losing runs can be quite expensive although you pick up the odd singles and doubles, so i came to the conclusion and it doesn't matter how rich you are that 40p  is the maximum 98% of the time irrespective of how many you do as long as you can afford it, if not 10p 20p 30p The oldies reckon you should not bet more than 5% of your weekly income which seems sensible to me ( @MCLARKE treble would have returned just under £1,200 a good result for anyone) My big worry/consideration is loss of account if you are successful over time. I assume the bookies can cope/accept a few thousand in loses now and again but up your stakes to a quid or more and those wins will get the attention of the "noseys" One good piece of advice i will put out there "Always remember there is a big difference between having a bet and gambling" one is fun the other is misery.

    The losing runs can be quite large, between my Aintree win and yesterday's win I lost £67 to £1.50 stakes although this was only £1.52 per day so not too prohibitive.

    It is a relatively small outlay for a lot of fun and the occasional big win.

    I am surprised I haven't had more restrictions with BET365, I am waiting for the dreaded "account has been reviewed by our trading team" message.

    I am not overly concerned as most of my betting is on the exchanges these days and ultimately I expect I will end up with the exchanges as the only option. At least this will simplify my betting and generally the best value is to be found on the exchanges.

  4. 4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    And i am now well over £3,000 up in 2023 @The Equaliser the thing with @MCLARKE he has an open mind he takes on board things that are said so the more he learns the more he adjusts he has no fear of admitting wrong think for want of a better expression i have been very impressed with his outlook and by that i mean i am impressed with the "journey" right back from his starting position re L15's to where he is now, i think it is fair to say he took the trouble to question his previous assumptions, put them aside for a while and formulate new ideas and test them.

    Yes, I am on the way to one of my best years as a result of the lucky 15s.

    To me the key area is to test my theories before putting my money down, I find the testing often as much fun as the actual betting.

    It is also important not to become disillusioned with losing runs, it is a fact of betting life. I was £700 down in the 4 months to December but have made £3,000 since then.

    Keep stakes small until you are making a profit and then use your profit to increase stakes.

  5. 22 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    Said it before I’ll say it again this site is a gold mine for punters, and the best thing about it it’s all free. Next best thing to being able to get free money out of a cash machine if used right. 

    Indeed, I woulddn't have made any money with lucky 15s if it wasn't for the discussions on here.

    The ideal starting point for most is to carefully utilise all free bets and offers, I used these for my daughter and it paid for a Caribbean holiday for her.

  6. 13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    How come you have two lucky 15s at Leicester using mostly the same horses? 

    I basically work through te day's racing in time order and when I come to the end I am often left with 1,2 or 3 horses so to put them into a lucky 15 I add 1 or more of my previous selections. They are not better bets, I tend to pick them for convenience.

    So yesterday I had 13 selections and was left with a selection in the 5.55 at Leicester so to include it in a lucky 15 I included 3 other Leicester selections as I already had the Leicester card open (I picked the 3 shortest out of the 4, I should have followed @Zilzalian's advice and gone with the 3 longest, I would have won another £359).

  7. 44 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    The favourites challenge is just a bit of fun.  My main L15 will have "Players" in them i.e horses ranked between 3/1 - 9/1. Michael @MCLARKE has been spending a lot of his former prize money on lots of L15's.  The question is which one to follow? I dread to think how much members have been spending on all these L15's.  Some, must be losing quite a bit

    Out £280.50

    In £1,520.27

    Profit £1,239.77

  8. 8 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    Should just back all these play off games to be draws!

    You could be right, we'll see what the mighty owls do tomorrow !

    My goto bet is having a very poor run, that's 7 games in a row that it has lost. The last 3 have been particularly irritating because we had been a goal up at one stage.

    Over 1 goal, 27 wins from 110 bets, ROI 52%

    Odds up to 9/2 23%

    5/1 - 17/2 28%

    Above 17/2 114%

    Wednesday V Barnsly today

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