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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing chat -Saturday 3rd Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

    I was going to call this a day but the last selection, Djelo, won at 11/1 so I'll perserver a bit longer.

    This meant that November showed a profit of £100 despite just 2 winners from 18 selections.

    Overall still a bit rubbish with 39 winners from 332 selections and a loss of £2,647.50.

    Today's selections

    SAND 2.20 Hermes Boy 5/1
    AINT 2.40 Gunsight Ridge 4/1
    AINT 3.15 Harbour Lake 4/1
    SAND 3.30 Eclair De Guye 11/2

    Racing chat -Saturday 3rd Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5yo selections

    Lucky 15 in bold

    COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
    Wetherby 0.48 Court At Slip 7.00
    Sandown 1.10 Halo Des Obeaux 5.00
    Wetherby 1.58 Kellahen 2.25
    Chepstow 2.12 Could Talkaboutit 14.00
    Wetherby 2.33 Harry Du Berlais 6.50
    Chepstow 3.22 Haston Clermont 20.00
    Sandown 3.30 Red Happy 28.00
    Wolverhampton 5.20 Super Den 6.00
    Wolverhampton 7.20 King Of The South 1.88
    Wolverhampton 7.50 Jack The Savage 66.00
    Wolverhampton 8.20 Daheer 12.00

    Racing chat -Saturday 3rd Dec

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This weekend’s big handicap is the Becher Handicap Chase, run over the Grand National course at Aintree. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs and is open to horses aged 6 or older. It should be a good spectacle to watch as there are 21 fences for the horses to overcome. Off time is 2.05 and 23 go to post.

    It is not a good guide for Cheltenham but 2 winners have gone on to win the Grand National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch.

    Many bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.

    WATCH THE CALORIES

    I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.

    1.       It is difficult to lug heavy weights around this course. There have been 64 horses that have carried more than 10st 12lbs and only 1 has won. Lighter weights have a record of 8 from 108.         

    2.       Horses bred in Ireland have a poor record with just 2 wins from 94 attempts compared to 7 from 78 for those horses bred in other countries.

    3.       This is not a good race for fancied runners. Horses with forecast odds of 16/1 or higher have a record of 5 wins from 84 runners compared to 4 from 88 for their more fancied opponents.

    Just 2 horses fit these criteria, DIDERO VALLIS (22/1) and PERCUSSION (18/1).  

    I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5/6 places.

    Further statistics that may prove relevant.

    French bred horses have a particularly good record with 5 wins from 51 runs. DIDERO VALLIS is bred in France, PERCUSSION in the UK.

    Horses ideally need time to recover from their last run. Horses that last ran less than 22 days ago have a record of 0 wins from 36 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS last ran 13 days ago, PERCUSSION 28.

    Relatively unexposed horses have a decent record with 6 winners from 90 runners compared to 3 from 82 for their more experienced rivals. DIDERO VALLIS has run 31 times, PERCUSSION 12.

    The ideal age is 9, with 4 wins from 43 attempts. DIDERO VALLIS is 9, PERCUSSION is 7.

    Gavin Sheehan, who rides PERCUSSION, won this race in 2017 with Blaklion.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has the best record in this race with 6 winners in the last 30 years. This year he saddles Fantastikas.

    Racing Chat - Friday 2nd December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5yo selections. The wheels have come off this a bit but I will plod on (like some of my horses!)

    Lucky 15 in bold

    COURSE TIME  SELECTION ODDS 
    Exeter 12.15 City Chief 2.00
    Sedgefield 1.35 Son Of Oz 33.00
    Sedgefield 2.10 Shir I Dont Know 40.00
    Sandown 2.55 Corrigeen Rock 2.25
    Newcastle 6.15 Ballyare 20.00
    Dundalk 6.30 Bronze River 20.00
    Dundalk 7.00 Diamondsinthesand 9.00
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