Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:10 Doncaster - Dinkum Diamond - 2pts @ 6/1 (PaddyPower) 3 year old's have filled the runners-up spot in this 5 furlong Listed contest in the past couple years and I'm hopeful that they'll go one better this year, with the winner hopefully being Dinkum Diamond. Henry Candy's charge was a top-notch juvenile last year and got within a ¼-length of the exceptionally speedy Richard Hannon trained Zebedee over this C&D in the Group 2 Flying Childers. I had thought that this fellow would make the grade at Group level this year but all he has to his name so far is a conditions race win, achieved on his penultimate start (July) over the minimum trip at Newmarket. Dinkum Diamond stepped back into this grade eleven days ago when coming up against a few of these at Beverley and although he ran a solid race to finish a ½-length 3rd of 10, I think he's a much, much better animal than that. The soft ground on that occasion wasn't ideal - although he does handle it - and today's quicker ground is in his favour. Whether or not he wants a stiffer test at this trip is up for debate but he will get a solid pace to run at and that's what he needs - plus we know he goes at the track based on that fine G2 performance last year (in which I feel he was unlucky not to win). Duchess Dora finished a neck ahead of Henry Candy's charge at Beverley and although she's clearly thriving of late, a stiffer track would help her cause in a race of this nature. She's a 6/1 shot also and that looks a bit too short for my liking, plus she seems to move a lot better on a softer surface. I wouldn't rule her out at all but I expect to see the form turned around at the same time. Medicean Man is another on a steep upward curve but with all of his recent impressive form coming at Ascot, I'm keen to take him on as he's away from that venue now, plus 4/1 looks short. Others come into the equation but the 6/1 price-tag about the speedy Dinkum Diamond is couple of points too big. He'll get his conditions, a race run to suit and his yard are in good form of late (2 of last 5 have won). Small wins stakes again, as it's not the sort of race I like to get heavily involved in.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:50 Doncaster - Shesastar - 3pts @ 11/2 (VC) My favourite trainer, David Barron, is brilliant at getting horses like Shesastar to continue on progressing up through the ranks and he looks to have found another winnable opportunity for his lightly-raced 3 year old filly. This fairly cheap purchase has won 3 of her opening 9 career starts and 2 of her 5 so far this season. She's yet to follow up on a win with another victory but I'm hopeful she can buck the trend here on what is only her second start over 7 furlongs. Jamie Spencer - 2 from 2 on board her - is booked again and it seems like it's all systems go in a bid to land this £12k prize. Shesastar scored comfortably in a very competitive 17-runner handicap at York last time out on what was her first outing over 7f. The York track was favouring those racing on the pace and under a well-judged waiting ride from Jamie Spencer, the Barron trained filly was able to make up plenty of ground from off the pace before going on to score by 1½ lengths, with the second being a nice way clear of the rest. That form looks quite good (her effort can be marked up IMO) and although she's up 7lbs in the ratings and taking on better animals, I feel there's still plenty more to come from an animal who's still clearly on the upgrade. It's also good to see that Shesastar goes well at this course, as she has won 2 of her 3 outings when coming here, placing on the other occasion. All of those came over 6f and she's now 23lbs higher than the first of those - testament to her progression. The general consensus is that she's better on a slower surface but anything around the good ground mark should suit over this trip and with a good pace to run at being very likely, everything should be run to favour her. Spencer is riding well of late, Barron's horses are going well and this horse is still going the right way, so I feel that she's a nice bit of value at 11/2 and should give me a good run for my money at the very least. Medium win stakes and hopefully she'll go well. Of the rest, Bryan Smart's progressive Roninski may be worth a quid or two each-way at 12/1, as he's another who's overpriced.

[_Punt_4THEE_Profit_]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts)

2:35 Doncaster - Eureka - 2pts @ 9/2 (WillHill)

Well done!!:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Nice one with Eureka Monte!, what two contrasting rides from Hughesy. Funny how you dont get so frustrated with him coz you know what the risks are when you back him.:ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Cheers men, nice to pick a winner anyways! Pity Dinkum couldn't add to the tally. Oh I got frustrated mate, even though I should know by now. Plenty of complaining has gone on on my twitter and facebook feeds! Stupidity deserves criticism, and he's as stupid as they come on occasions. :wall He's still an amazing jockey though, it's just that these things annoy me. More so when I've cash down!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Another frustrating day, even though it ended up being one that showed a profit. Magic City was the first to run and having been well-backed throughout the day, a big run was expected from Richard Hannon's charge. However, Richard Hughes' exaggerated hold-up tactics proved to be his downfall and he can be considered a most unlucky loser. Always going well towards the rear of the field, Hughes must of though he was on a Group 1 animal in this Nursery as he didn't go for him until much too late. In the end, he was squeezed out when looking for a run and although he flashed home late when in the clear, it was only enough to come home a few lengths behind the winner in 3rd place. Regardless of the disappointing result for myself, the horse is clearly back in good form and he'll be winning before too long, although I doubt I'll be getting 8/1 about him again unless he reverts to his old ways. He got the trip without problem and looks capable of fulfilling his earlier promise over this sort of trip. Hopefully he will. Hughes made up for that poor ride by guiding Eureka to victory in the following race. He set a slow pace in front and quickened nicely with a couple of furlongs to go before going on to score in a very game fashion. There's bound to be a lot more to come from this animal and given the amount of stamina on his dam's side, there's every chance that he'll be contesting races over a mile as a 3 year old. It'll be interesting to see how he progresses but this was a fine effort conceding weight all round and a step back in the right direction having been below his best on his previous start at Group 2 level - although the Goodwood track can take the majority of the blame for that performance, as I don't think he enjoyed it at all. +9.00pts from a 2pt bet at 9/2. Dinkum Diamond continued the recent trend in the race that he contested as he became the third 3 year old in as many years to finish 2nd in the race. Henry Candy's speedy colt traveled well throughout and had a race run perfectly for him, as he loves to chase after a solid pace. Once asked for maximum effort, he quickened up nicely to take up the running a furlong from home but he was eventually reeled back by the 4 year old winner. He only went down by ½ a length in the end and it was a good effort, one that would normally win a race of that nature. I think he used up too much energy in taking down Captain Dunne who had traveled to the front going well just over a furlong from home and it ultimately proved to be his downfall. He kept going well to the line though and stepping him up to 6 furlongs on an easy track wouldn't be a bad idea at all. Good performance, no excuses and for once, no complaints from me! He's a horse to keep on the right side of though and I'm convinced that he'll land a Group race at 4 if he's still around. In typical fashion, my strongest bet of the day - Shesastar - proved to be the most disappointing of the bunch. However, it was an effort that doesn't reflect her ability at all and having been taken off heels early on, she just couldn't get involved. I'm not convinced with how she moved on the ground and a return to a softer surface looks needed - unless I'm way off the mark. Disappointing but there's not a whole pile to say about how she ran, as it's too bad to be true. Hopefully that'll ensure that she's a nice price next time out, as her current rating is one that she can overcome when getting ideal conditions. +2.00pts on the day. Could be worse, could be a whole lot better. Hopefully a bit of luck will swing my way, as plenty are making the frame without following through on their threats, which is annoying as hell! It's actually much easier to take when they're beaten out of sight, even though that sounds odd. I live in hope! 1:25 Doncaster - Besito - 3pts @ 4/1 (WillHill) Another 2 year old race to get stuck into and last time out maiden winner Besito could well be the best of the bunch. William Jarvis seems to think quite highly of this 67,000gns purchase and he has every right to be optimistic about his chances of landing the spoils here with this progressive filly. Overall, there's only a few that I'd be giving chances too, as plenty look quite average. Some come to line up here on the back of decent efforts at Listed level but they're not for me (some were flattered big time). The strict form of the last race that Besito contested is quite weak but as I've said before, that never concerns me. The raw visual impression of her all-the-way 3½ length victory over 6 furlongs at Newmarket was impressive and although what has come out of the race since hasn't upgraded the bare form in any way, I'm not panicking. She showed some bright speed to put the whole field to the sword relatively early on and continued to stay on up the hill in the manner of a filly who could contest stakes races in time. Today, she will tackle an extra half-furlong at this much easier track and I think it could help to see her in an even better light. After that success, William Jarvis said that "we think Besito is quite smart and we may look at a Listed race next." It's good to see that they're not throwing her into a contest of that nature just yet, as a mark of 87 is very workable in Nurseries for her and I'm hopeful that she'll prove to be a lot better than that rating in time. She'll have to defy top-weight on her debut out of maidens and although that's no simple task, she seems to have the raw ability to blitz these if things go to plan. Besito can make the running or accept a lead and the current decent ground conditions should not pose a threat to her running her race. Kieren Fallon is on board - as he has been last twice - and that's surely a plus. William Jarvis' yard are in cracking form with 2 winners and 3 seconds from his last 8 runners. I've missed the 13/2 that was available for this horse earlier but 4/1 is still too big and I'd rate her as being worthy of a shorter price. It's also interesting to see that she still has an entry in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in a few weeks, although that looks much too optimistic and she won't be lining out there one would imagine. Medium win stakes for me and Elusive Flame (7/1) would be considered as the best-priced danger.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 1:55 Doncaster - Rimth - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365) A competitive Group 3 contest for fillies & mares over 7 furlongs. Paul Cole's Rimth may be worth taking a chance on as she has undoubted class when things go well, although her keen going ways often get in the way and stop her from showing her best form. However, if she can settle down under the guidance of the brilliant Frankie Dettori, she's capable of turning around recent form with a few of her opponents here today. I think that the return to a straight 7f could be a massive plus for this speedy 3 year old and in general, the Doncaster track should prove to be ideal. Rimth disappointed last time out when sent off as a 4/1 shot over 6f at Pontefract having dropped to Listed company for the first time since her early juvenile days. However, she saw way too much daylight as she was always caught wide and this made settling her an impossible task. She trailed in a long way behind the leaders but I'm more than happy to overlook that run as it wasn't a true reflection of her ability, much like a few of her other outings. It also seems as if 6f may not be ideal for her nowadays (despite her being one of the top sprint juvenile fillies last year) and the Pontefract track is one that doesn't play to her strengths. Previous to that - on her penultimate start - Rimth ran a cracking race over this 7f trip at Goodwood when tackling the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes. On that occasion, a wide draw in stall 15 of 17 made it awfully difficult for her to get a nice position. She ended up getting caught wide at the tricky Goodwood track and this is far from ideal around there, especially with a horse who constantly wants to go faster. She raced with the choke out as usual but moved nicely into contention and looked a big threat a couple of furlongs from home. It took a while for her to hit top gear (will find it easier to do here) but she was running on well in the end and finished 3½ lengths behind Chachamaidee - who she re-opposes (7/2 shot) on identical terms. It'll be tough to turn around that form but it's do-able with a better position mid-race and with this course being much more suitable too. Paul Cole now reaches for cheekpieces for the speedy Rimth and this looks like a good move. If they have the desired effect, it could unlock even more ability for this animal to get competitive at a trip that she remains capable of improving over. She's unexposed in the main and once she matures mentally, there's more Group races to be won with her before she heads off to be a broodmare. A repeat of her impressive Group 3 Fred Darling win over this trip at Newbury in April would see her get into the frame and although this is a tougher race with regards to opposition, she's worthy of having a small bet on at a price-tag of 10/1. Hopefully she'll go well and fulfill her obvious potential, as I'm quite sure she hasn't shown her best yet, despite the fact that she has numerous good runs on the slate. Risky race to punt in though, hence the small stake.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:10 Doncaster - Mon Brav - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (WillHill, 4 places) Once again I'm going to take a chance on Brian Ellison's Mon Brav, especially now that he's back down to a level that he can compete in. This is the first time that this progressive 4 year old drops back to a Class 3 contest over his favoured 6f since finishing 2nd to the progressive Andrew Balding trained Dungannon (off 90 then, winner off 95 since beating very progressive animal) over this C&D in June. Previous to that he had won his opening pair of outings for his new yard, winning off 75 at Musselburgh over an inadequate 5f before following up off 81 in a competitive 16 runner contest at Thirsk, a track that I don't think is completely ideal. Since that very good run over C&D, things haven't went to plan for Mon Brav but I think he has been campaigned in some races that he just found impossible to get involved in. First up, he ran over 5f at the stiff Newcastle track and although he wasn't beaten far (3½l), it would be considered a poor run given how well-backed he was (sent off 4/1 favourite in C2 event). He was then drawn out in the car park over 6f at Ascot, although once again he was punted from fancy prices into 10/1 for a much tougher race than this. That run can be discounted. Next - and last - time out, Mon Brav couldn't get involved in a very hot handicap over 5f at York, mainly down to the track favouring those racing on the pace that day (he was towards the rear throughout, kept on final furlong). That trip is too short anyways, but the trip at that track was never going to suit and it was game over before he even stepped into the stalls - even though I backed him oddly enough. Now that Mon Brav returns to his proper trip, grade and a track that suits, I feel he can get back into the frame and put his recent efforts behind him. Given how he was backed on a few occasions since last scoring, connections must think that he's up to defying these sort of marks in competitive races and hopefully they're going here with the intent of landing the spoils, as Brian Ellison is good at keeping them for a gamble. Another positive is the booking of the supremely talented Silvestre De Sousa. He's got a 28% strike-rate for this yard with 7 winners from just 25 rides and it could well be a signal of intent (at least I hope so). He's also 3 from 10 when on board animals owned by Koo's Racing Club and hopefully he could add to that here. I think De Sousa is the ideal partner for this horse - as both are very determined and hard to beat in a finish when things go well. The race will be run to suit and the horse also has a nice sit in still 19 - as it seems that you want a high draw over sprint trips at Doncaster. Ground will cause no concern either and there seems to be no obvious reason why he can't make the frame, thus making 18/1 look too big. The pace should be strong along the stands' rail and Mon Brav will get a nice toe into the race assuming he's good enough. Small each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run well. Previous selection Shropshire (25/1) may be worth a few quid each-way too. It's a very, very tough race to get to grips with though, so I won't be surprised by whoever wins this.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Clean sweep of losers. Early one for tomorrow because I think this price is very wrong. I hope so anyways. 1:25 Doncaster - Angels Will Fall - 4pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) Back with reasoning later.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Clean sweep of losers. Early one for tomorrow because I think this price is very wrong. I hope so anyways. 1:25 Doncaster - Angels Will Fall - 4pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) Back with reasoning later.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Plenty more disappointment on Day 2 of the Leger meeting. My strongest selection, Besito, disappointed in the opening contest - only managing to come home in 7th place. However, she was hampered in the early stages and also took a keen grip under the hands of Kieren Fallon (having accepted a lead), so I'm more than willing to overlook this effort. She moved nicely and looked in with a chance at one stage, but faded out of contention after, with her earlier exertions taking their toll. A step up to 7f wouldn't go astray and forcing tactics could see her in a better light too - as she's a sizable filly with a lovely stride on her, so it makes sense to use it considering she's proved she can go from the front already. Disappointing effort today, but I'm convinced that the money will be returned by her soon enough. Typically, the only one I mentioned as a danger, Elusive Flame, went on to land the spoils at 13/2. Hindsight is wonderful but I really should of played a small saver there. I can't say much about Rimth, as her chance was gone within the first couple of seconds. She broke very, very slowly and veered left afterwards, giving up about 8-to-10 lengths to the field in the process. There'll be other days very her and I will be on again. Although it was disappointing as the race was run to suit and I'm sure she'd of got involved in the finish if she broke on terms with them. Frustrating. Mon Brav ran a solid race to finish in 10th place and it was an effort better than the bare finishing position suggests. He saw plenty of daylight on the outside of the field and looked a big threat with a couple of furlongs to go - hitting 4/1 in-running when holding every chance. His effort petered out on ground that was probably a bit lively for him and dropped back through the field. There's a nice handicap in him when he gets softer ground and I will definitely keep a close eye on him. His current rating isn't beyond him at all and connections will find the key to unlock the door for him again soon. No complaints today though, he ran well. Shropshire - the other horse I mentioned - finished in a place at a fancy 33/1 price-tag. -7.00pts on the day. Disappointing again, but that little bit of luck needed is due to fall my way any time now... It's 1/10 that it won't. 1:25 Doncaster - Angels Will Fall - 4pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) Another cracking 2 year old contest to get stuck into and with this one being likely to be run at a ferocious pace over the flying 5 furlongs at Doncaster, the now Charlie Hills trained Angels Will Fall could well be the one to benefit. There's at least 4 or 5 different pace angles - combined with plenty of pressers, which should ensure that there'll be no hanging about. This is bound to suit the strong-travelling, hold-up animals, of which there aren't too many. The Hills juvenile fits the bill and she also has an exceptional turn of foot - one of the best from this years juvenile division and it's something that should always give her a chance of getting involved in the finish when contesting any top sprint. Angels Will Fall opened her account on debut when lining up over 5f at Windsor back in May. That was the same maiden in which one of last years top-notch juvenile fillies landed the spoils - that filly was Rimth. On this occasion - under the guidance of today's jockey Robert Winston - the then Barry Hills trained animal ran out a more than comfortable 3¾ length winner, justifying very strong support in the process. She didn't beat a whole pile but the way in which she traveled into contention before extending away from the field (with pure ease) was ultra-impressive and it seemed a sure thing that she'd go on to score at Group level before the year was out. Her Group level aspirations came to fruition next time out as Angels Will Fall took the Group 3 Princess Margret Stakes at Ascot on the 23rd of July. She had pulled a muscle previous to her intended start at the Royal meeting on the same course and that's why she was off the track for circa 10 weeks. However, it didn't matter as she put a next-time-out Group 3 winner to the sword with a very nice change of gear despite racing on good-to-soft ground, which I'm not convinced is ideal (nor is the relatively stiff track). They went fairly slow early on in that race, which did help her over a trip that's not ideal - so she may be a little bit flattered by the performance (2nd placed horse is high-class, just not in a race run like that). Regardless, the return to 5f on better ground is sure to suit - along with the easier track - and an end-to-end gallop over this trip will see her in a much better light if all is well. The only reason we're getting anything like 5/1 about this filly is because she disappointed last time out when upped to Group 2 level at York (over 6f again). In that race - on softer ground - Angels Will Fall (7/2 fav) threw her chances away by refusing to settle early on (saw too much daylight on outside) and as a result, had nothing left to give in the finish. She still held a chance at one stage but it was proving very tough to come from off the pace at York and it was just an impossible task for an animal who wants the minimum trip on better ground. I'm more than willing to write that effort off as she's so much better than that and should be able to prove it here. Robert Winston hops back on board having missed out on the chance to ride her last time out and that should be a big plus, as he clearly forged a good partnership with her on her opening pair of races. He also previously said that she was "probably the best five-furlong filly in the country" after her second outing (the G3 success) and now he'll get the chance to prove that Angels Will Fall performed well below her ability when he wasn't in the drivers seat. This could also provide Charles Hills with his first Group winner since took over the reins from his recently retired father. Stepping Angels Will Fall back to 5f looks like the perfect move and I think she should run a cracker here if getting the breaks mid-race. She's got speed to burn, a wonderful turn of foot and the potential to improve tenfold. 5/1 represents a lot of value and personally I'd have her a lot shorter - possibly around the 2/1-5/2 mark. As with everything, I could be miles off the ball but this is a more than winnable race for her. My Propeller would be the one I'd be most worried about but she won a weak Listed contest last time out and she may be correctly priced at around 11/2. Requinto is another talented horse and a danger but I'm not sure that he'll have things to suit here and taking 7/2 about him seems too risky to be worth it. He also strikes me as one who should be better over further when learning to relax in his races and I think he could be swept off his feet here. It still wouldn't be a surprise to see him win though, as his Group 3 Goodwood win was achieved in the style of a very nice horse. The price is still too short though, and that's enough to put me off. Overall, I'm sticking with the Hills/Winston combination to come up trumps before going on to tackle the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in a few weeks. Although if she takes up that engagement, I'd be shocked if she won. The chances of her getting home over that trip at the stiff track are slim to none. Stranger things have happened but it's not very likely based on how much speed she seems to posses. Borderline maximum stakes for me, as she's vastly overpriced given the obvious chance that she has. Hopefully she'll go well and preferably win!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 1:55 Doncaster - Itlaaq - 2pts @ 11/1 (PaddyPower) A lack of any assured pace in this 1m 6½f contest is a worry but Itlaaq - an improving, tactically versatile animal - could be the answer to this very tricky equation. Since joining the Mick Easterby yard from John Dunlop's stable to embark on his 5 year old campaign, this relatively unexposed gelding has put in numerous good performances. It'll take a career best for him to land this £25,000 prize for connections but the way in which he travels and makes up ground is impressive, enough so to suggest that he could be better than his career-high handicap mark of 94. A few things have contributed to the improvement of Itlaaq, the first being a step up to longer distances than he tackled for previous connections. His last 3 outings, all at York - over 1m 4f and 2m (twice) - have seen him produce efforts better than anything he did when with John Dunlop. First up, he finished just over 2 lengths behind Awsaal - a very talented, improving 4 year old colt (former stablemate). In that race, Mick Easterby's charge made good headway as usual and just couldn't go on in the closing stages when looking a big threat under the guidance of now regular partner Graham Gibbons. It seemed as if a step up in trip would do no harm and Itlaaq was given the chance to prove himself over 2m, again at York. It indeed worked wonders as Easterby's animal came into contention 2f from home pulling double, and some. However, he was forced to battle hard for the victory when push came to shove and ended up winning by the smallest of margins. His stamina may have gave way but it was a more than encouraging effort to defy a mark of 88 in a decent 13 runner field and the way he traveled boded well for future engagements. Next time out, he half-disappointed over the same C&D as when achieving victory on his previous outing. However, his stamina did give way in the closing stages that day and it wasn't the 6lb penalty (off same mark of 94 here) that did him. Itlaaq actually produced an effort that's rated a career-best, as once again, he traveled into contention well having made good headway on the outside of the field. Now that he steps back down a furlong-and-a-half in trip to tackle 1m 6½f for the first time (never went beyond 1m 4f before tackling 2 miles last twice), I think we could see even more improvement. This looks to be around about his ideal trip based on his most recent outings and despite taking on some useful animals today, he could take advantage. Conditions should be no problem and Itlaaq ran a solid race over 1m 2f at this track back in April. The key to him seems to be a long home-straight to run on and he gets that today. Graham Gibbons' shocking course record (4 wins, 129 rides) is a massive worry but this horse could be up to Listed contests if he keeps on going the right way and he seems to have most things to suit here. A good, even gallop would make his chances even better but that's not assured, unfortunately. He has run well in muddling affairs though and he possesses plenty of tactical speed, so I'm hopeful that it won't affect his chances. 11/1 looks a few points too big and I'll play small win stakes again. Of the remainder, Luca Cumani's 11/2 shot - Bourne - could be the best of the rest but he's half the price of my selection and I'll side with the horse who I believe to be superior value. Hopefully he'll justify it.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:10 Doncaster - Swiss Franc - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) Plenty of the field can be given a chance here but Swiss Franc could be capable of striking for the exceptionally in-form David Elsworth stable (5 winners & 4 places from last 13 runners). This 6 year old sprinter was a top-notch juvenile and even managed to finish ¾ of a length behind Henrythenavigator when coming 2nd in the '07 running of the Coventry Stakes run over 6f at Royal Ascot. Like plenty of those who are more than useful at 2, he struggled to make an impact at 3. He only ran 5 times at 4 & 5 but seems to have come back in decent form this year and could be capable of more. Swiss Franc ended a 4 year long losing run when getting his head in-front (by ¾ of a length) in a 6-runner race over the stiff 5f at Newmarket in July. This race is a completely different kettle of fish but on that occasion, he showed he retained plenty of his old ability to score off a mark of 89 - beating some solid sprinters in the process. The further he went up the hill, the better he extended his stride and I think this easy-track 6½f test could be right up his street, assuming he handles the ground (ideally wants cut apparently). A solid pace to run at is virtually assured and a sit in stall 14 is a grand position to be in, so there aren't too many excuses with regards to the simplistic things that you want to see in his favour. Since landing the spoils at Newmarket, Swiss Franc has run a few solid, staying-on races over 5 furlongs - including an impressive running-on 1 length 3rd of 12 behind the ever progressing Medicean Man at Ascot. Seeing that he's recapturing some consistency now, I think he could be the type to go in again. This is a tough race but there's plenty to like about him and a mark of 95 may not be beyond his capabilities at all. William Buick - who boasts an excellent record at this track - hops back on board for the first time since guiding him to that Newmarket win and he could be key to getting the best out of this fellow. He also does well on the rare occasion that he rides for the Elsworth yard. With the yard flying, the horse in-form and a brilliant man for riding the course on board, the 16/1 price-tag could offer a lot of value. He's stepping back into the unknown with regards to trip but he used to see out his races quite well when he was in good form and hopefully he'll do so again. Small each-way stakes as it's a risky race to punt in. Kanaf (5/1) looks an obvious threat to all of the field and Mike Murphy's 4 year old, Lutine Bell (14/1), wouldn't be without frame claims either if the removal of his usual headgear has a positive impact. I'm hopeful that David Elsworth can cause another mini upset and his charge is well overpriced to do so. The ground has to be a worry though, purely based on his trainers comments saying he loved the bit of cut at Newmarket. However, he has fast ground form - so it's a risk worth taking.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:40 Doncaster - Mashaaref - 2pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower) Short write-up here, getting tired! 3 year old's have dominated this race in recent years with 8 of the last 9 running's going to horses of that age group. I expect to see the same here with Roger Varian's charge Mashaaref. This Hamdan Al Maktoum owned colt has run on 4 occasions and looks sure to have more to come, not least when he learns to relax in his races. Unraced at 2, he didn't take long to get off the mark when scoring at the second attempt (first on turf) at a mile around Nottingham in May. It wouldn't be the best of maidens out there but it was a decent performance nonetheless and certainly one of a horse with plenty more to come. Mashaaref was beaten by 4½ lengths in each of his following races, both runs being in handicaps off marks of 83. He did show improvement when finishing 2nd (well-backed) to Sir Henry Cecil's quirky but talented All Action over this trip at Ascot when last seen. He was probably just outstayed that day and this easier race & track could help. Richard Hills, although poor, is an upgrade from Tadgh O'Shea who was on board last time out. Hills was up for his first 3 outings and knows the horse well enough by now to get the best out of him. He's also riding a lot better of late and doesn't okay at this track. Roger Varian comes down to Doncaster with 2 runners and bids to maintain his 2 from 2 unbeaten record at the track. His yard are in decent form and with the potentially useful Mashaaref having been freshened up after 2 months off the track, I think we can expect a very big run, certainly that of a horse with a favourites chance. Small win stakes again as the price isn't phenomenal value this time but he has a lively opportunity and should go well. Of the older horses, my old foe and another David Elsworth animal - Viva Vettori - would be the next best bet at 8/1. He's frustrating though and seems to find bad luck wherever he goes.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) :wall It's fair to say that I wouldn't pick a winner in a one horse race at the moment but on we go. Angels Will Fall disappointed again, mainly down to her refusal to settle in the early stages. I was fully confident that she'd make the frame as the drop back in trip was in her favour but she just didn't perform to her best at all. Disappointing and there's not a whole pile I can say apart from the fact that she's so much better than that. I'll be on again and hopefully the losses will be recouped. Itlaaq suffered from a lack of pace to run at in his race and he didn't get a good run through when asked for maximum effort. Again, it was disappointing but he performed better than his finishing position would suggest and he'll be one to note if tackling races around this trip again. I don't think 2m is for him but a nicely run 1m 6f could bring out further improvement. Swiss Franc was sent out to make the running for some reason and I would of much preferred to have seen him settled in rear, as doubts over his ability to get the extended 6f trip should of put front-running tactics way down the list of priorities. He ended up finishing where he should of started the race and - as the majority of my bets during this festival have been - it was a very disappointing performance. Mashaaref did the best of the lot but he could only muster up a 2nd placed finish in the end. He moved nicely throughout and was well-positioned in a race suiting those on the pace - but ultimately, he ran into a horse that looks capable of performing at Listed/Group level in the future and that put paid to his chances. There'll be races in him off his current rating but I'll be leaving well alone as this performance should ensure that he will be a short price next time out. -10.00pts on another poor day. Between bad judgement and bad luck, I just can't catch a break at the moment. Hopefully it'll turn around soon, but this meeting has proved to be impossible for me and it's hard to be overly confident about anything. 2:05 Doncaster - Trumpet Major - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365) Only 5 runners go to post for this 7f Group 2 contest but Trumpet Major could be capable of causing a little shock here if bouncing back from a disappointing effort last time out. Richard Hannon's juvenile was sent off as the 6/4 favourite for the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on the 20th of August but with genuinely soft ground to contend with for the first time in his career, he performed atrociously and came home in last position in a 4 runner race. The winner of that race - Talwar - had finished just a short-head in-front of Hannon's colt 4 weeks previously at Ascot (also over 7f, in Listed contest) and to see the winning margin increased by 8 lengths would definitely suggest that Trumpet Major was inconvenienced by the conditions. It's also possible that the soft ground combined with the stiff Sandown hill was completely against him and negated his previously impressive turn of foot. The return to an easier track on quicker ground will help and he'll get the chance to prove his class on optimum conditions. Whether he's good enough to trouble the short-priced market leaders is another thing - as they look quite useful. However, going back to the performance of Trumpet Major's penultimate run would see him hold solid claims and that's the form that I'm happy to work with. Over 7f on fast ground at Newmarket, this €20,000 purchase scooted in by an easy 6 lengths in a 4 runner conditions race. The opposition weren't great but under the hands of Pat Dobbs, the Hannon colt traveled supremely, took up the running on the bit and then produced a telling turn of foot to run away from the field without having much of a race at all. Even though it was only a small-field conditions race, the visual impression of that performance was as good as anything that the other 4 runners in this field has produced and I'd prefer to side with that rather than the potential of the others. Entifaadha comes here with a big reputation and a couple of very good performances on both of his career starts to date. However, it seems as if cut in the ground is required to see him at his best and I feel that it's a risk taking 5/4 about a horse like him. There's bound to be a lot more to come but with both wins achieved in 13 & 20 runner fields, he may not enjoy how this race will be run. Red Duke is a 5/2 shot and looks more than useful but again, he's a horse who will stay further and won't enjoy the possible muddling affair over an easy 7f. John Quinn also has an atrocious record at the course (4 wins, 102 runners) and his yard aren't exactly firing as they so often can. I'd rather take him on too. Trumpet Major has already showed solid performances in muddling races and he has the speed, turn of foot and potential to improve again to win this, or at least go close. He looked like a Group horse in waiting when scoring on his penultimate start and if we ignore his latest run, he's still on an upward curve. Richard Hughes hops back on board today and with the yard going well, they could have a decent chance of getting another nice juvenile Group winner on the board. I could see Hughes dictating the pace from the front and quickening a couple of furlongs out to turn it into a real sprint and if it pans out like that, 10/1 could look quite big after the race. How and ever, he looks to be an unlikely winner so I'll just play minimum win stakes and hope for the best.

[Trotter]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) I'm feeling a bit :wall as well, monty I think it's the time of year............I remember many years ago the 'pundits' always used to say - only bet in the summer months !

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) So frustrating mate. Still, the challenge can be used as a positive either! :hope our luck turns around. ------------------------------- 2:35 Doncaster - Addictive Dream - 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, 5 places) Time to play the persistence card again, as I always thought Addictive Dream had another nice handicap in him ever since he landed the spoils at Ripon - bringing in a decent bet for myself in the process. Things haven't gone to plan for Walter Swinburn's 4 year old since and he has also shown signs of temperament, but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's an exceptionally talented animal on his day. If things can fall his way during the race today, I'm convinced that he's up to landing this £37,350 prize for connections over a trip that should be around his optimum. Addictive Dream put in a performance worthy of seeing him get involved at Listed/Group 3 level when overcoming having to race on the 'wrong' side of the Ripon track back in June. He was over 6½ lengths clear of his own group and 2 lengths clear of the favoured group which was headed by the Tim Easterby trained 5 year old, Grissom, a three-time winner since having won off 78, 82 & 88. 8 of the 13 runners in behind have won since and some of them multiple times, so to see Walter Swinburn's charge hammer them off a mark of 91 was impressive. He's 6lbs higher now but it's not beyond him if he's at the top of his game and I'm hopeful that connections should have him spot on today. Addictive Dream has run on 4 occasions since then, putting in 3 solid efforts before flopping last time out on his return to Ripon in the ultra-competitive, 19-runner Great St Wilfred Stakes. However, he was drawn on the wrong side and never got into contention, possibly paying for his exertions a week earlier when coming an unlucky 1½ length 5th behind Dungannon over 5f at Ascot. On that occasion, he was very well-backed in the Shergar Cup Dash and if it hadn't of been for getting wedged on the rail with nowhere to go, he'd of added to his 3 career wins. Usually the bare 5f is a bit on the sharp side for this animal but he was cruising in behind the leaders and that bodes well for his chances here. If he's in the same form again, I'm sure he'll go close. Walter Swinburn isn't having too much luck of late and all of his last 26 runners have lost, despite many running well. Today he and connections see fit to book the brilliant Frankie Dettori, which I'm hopeful is a signal of intent. Frankie rarely rides for this yard and he's riding exceptionally well of late - with 5 winners, 6 seconds and 1 third from his last 14 rides. He could be key to getting the best out of this tricky animal and maybe the removal of cheekpieces (on last twice) could also spur Addictive Dream on - even though he previously looked in need of some help but horses are weird animals and it could be a positive. The ground shouldn't pose an issue, he's well positioned in stall 16 and a solid pace to run at is virtually assured, which he wants. 20/1 looks like a price that's much too big for him and I'd imagine that 14's would be fair whilst 10's would be correct - although you couldn't price him at that purely on his latest run. Medium each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run into one of the 5 available places at least.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Skipping the Leger, looks impossible. If any of Brown Panther, Sea Moon or Seville win, I'll be happy. Preferably in that order too! 3:45 Doncaster - Eton Forever - 3pts @ 5/1 (PaddyPower) Final selection of the day and I'm going to side with Eton Forever, as he returns to the scene of his greatest success. Roger Varian's very lightly-raced 4 year old landed the ultra-competitive, 22-runner Spring Mile handicap over this C&D on his seasonal debut (on just 5th start). In the end, he powered away to a 3¾ length success, beating some top-notch animals in the process. The next 5 home have all won since and the 2nd placed horse, Dance And Dance, is now rated 108 and was last seen coming a ¼ length 2nd of 8 in a Group 3 contest. The way in which Varian's charge won at the time was in the manner of a Group performer and there was sure to be more to come. Eton Forever ran solid yet unspectacular races next twice, both at Ascot. The first was at Listed level a few weeks later and although he ran up to his mark, he was still 9 lengths behind Side Glance over a mile. That horse won a Group 3 when last seen and the second placed animal won a Listed handicap off a mark of 104 next time out. The horse directly behind my selection for today's race also won a Listed contest next time out and the bare form is solid. On his next outing - over the same C&D - Eton Forever tackled the 28-runner Royal Hunt Cup, in which he was sent off as a 14/1 shot. It was a big advantage to be drawn high that day and although stall 15 wasn't disasterous, it wasn't brilliant either. However, he traveled into contention going best of all 2f out before fading into a 6 length 5th and it rated as a solid performance without being brilliant. Some horses just don't take to Ascot though and he could be one of them, so the return to Doncaster could work the oracle if all goes well. It's fairly obvious that Eton Forever does his best work when fresh, so to see Roger Varian giving him a 3 month break since his Royal Ascot exertions has to be seen as a plus. Varian also has his animals in good form of late and had 2 winners and a second from 4 runners yesterday. He has always said that his animal would be better on faster ground and when he won the Spring Mile in April, it was described as "dead, slow and sticky" - with one jockey saying it was "the worst I have ever seen it here". If the trainers comments are correct, the performance could be even better than the bare figures and the likely quick ground he'll get today will be spot on. This race doesn't look the toughest despite having some useful animals lining out and I could only give chances to a few others. Roger Charlton's lightly-raced 3 year old, Cry Fury, is the obvious danger but he's up 9lbs for winning a messy affair in a 6-runner race over 1m 2f at Goodwood a month ago and 7/2 looks much too short. He's useful but this also represents a step up in grade and it could be tough for him. His price alone would make me avoid and it seems as if he's not bred to be a miler. Eton Forever looks the one to beat despite running off a mark of 103 and I think he can take this before going on to Group success next year. The lack of any out-and-out pace is the only reason that this isn't a maximum bet, as I think he's an exceptional talent with a lot more to come. If the gallop was assured, he'd be around the 5/2 mark in my book and the 5's about him at the moment make it look a risk worth taking. Medium stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Good start Monte! :notworthy

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Great run by Addictive Dream also mate! Well done on the place :notworthy

[stewartd14]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Unlucky with Addictive Dream mate. Quite impressed with that Nocturnal Affair, seemed to have an extremely quick cruising speed after missing the break and stayed on all the way to the line. Nice sprinter. :clap:clap Cracking day overall though with Trumpet & Addictive - Thought it was going to be a clean sweep, but that Man of Iron just came from nowhere !

[BillyHills]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts)

It's fair to say that I wouldn't pick a winner in a one horse race at the moment but on we go.

Admit it, your just playing with us:lol :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Cheers guys, I appreciate it. Good to have a nice day for a change! BH, the old reverse jinxing card was played there. :p Sometimes it works mate. :lol

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Finally, a change of luck. Trumpet Major put in a smart performance to score in the opening Group 2 contest at Doncaster, showing a smart turn of foot before staying on strongly to the line. The race panned out as expected, as they went slow enough early on and it turned into a sprint towards the end. This definitely suited Richard Hannon's colt and his speed came to the fore. There should be more to come from him and he looks a smart prospect for the future, especially when getting his favoured fast ground. It seems as if there's plenty of stamina on the dam side and although he has so much speed now, he'll be getting a mile and possibly further as a 3 year old. He's not the best juvenile the yard have but he's not half-bad at all and should be winning more Group races in time. If it somehow happened that there was fast ground in the Dewhurst next month, he should really take up that engagement. +10.00pts from a 1pt bet @ 10/1. Now for the one that got away. Addictive Dream bounced back to his best in the really competitive 21-runner, 5½f Portland Handicap. Walter Swinburn's charge was backed before the off, eventually being sent off as a 14/1 shot. Having got a nice position in behind the strong pace, Frankie Dettori soon had the 4 year old chestnut traveling exceptionally well (despite the ground being a bit lively for him). The pair came with what looked like a winning run in the closing stages and they traded at 1.13 before that effort petered out. He finished 3rd in the end, just ½ a length behind the winner and it was a very good performance. Dettori got a fine tune out of him and so nearly hit the jackpot for me. It wasn't to be but a +8.00pt profit from a 2pt e/w bet @ 20/1 will suffice. It could of been brilliant though. Eton Forever was the final selection to run and Roger Varian's charge was exceptionally well-backed throughout the day, eventually going off as a 9/4 shot. However, he was tipped up by Hugh Taylor and every single time I end up on the same horse as him, they lose. The same happened here as this 4 year old ended up coming 2nd. It was still a very, very good performance though - as the race was run all wrong for him and he really needs to chase after a solid pace. It turned into a sprint and although he hit the front inside the final furlong, he couldn't extend in the closing stages and got mugged by the fast-finishing Godolphin runner. Can't complain though, as it was a fine effort and the horse put it all in. He just found one too good and that horse was suited to how things went. There'll be other days, more than likely next year when he'll surely tackle Group races - possibly over 1m 2f, which is a trip he'll get. +15.00pts on the day and normal service resumed, but for how long! Despite some awful luck and awful judgement, the 4 day festival ended up seeing me break even. Doncaster is a track that I just can't get my head around and I find it hard to call the races right (not with regards to winners, just how things will pan out - who'll be favoured, etc). From a total of 14 bets - 2 won (9/2 & 10/1), 3 came second (5/1, 5/1 & 6/1) and 2 came third (8/1 & 20/1), with a further 7 unplaced. It wasn't a bad effort with so many getting involved but the last day really saved me. I just need to get my head around that track and find horses who will be suited to how the races were run - as that proved impossible until day 4. The stats will be updated soon, just haven't got around to doing it yet - I'm lazy! 5:15 Goodwood - Tagula Night - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill) 15 runners are set to line up for this competitive 6f handicap and last years winner, Tagula Night, could be primed to run a big race if the ground doesn't quicken up too much between now and race time. Walter Swinburn's 5 year old gelding was an impressive 2½ length victor in the 2010 running of this race off a 2lb lower mark (well-supported) and despite recent form seeming to suggest that he's not going to make too much of an impression, I'm willing to take a chance. This is usually his time of year - with all 4 wins coming in August or September - and he shaped much better than his finishing position would suggest last time out. Tagula Night ran over this C&D last time out in a more competitive Class 3 Handicap and although he failed to beat a rival home, he may have paid for racing against the rail - which seemed to be the slowest part of the track, despite the second placed horse taking the same path (set good fractions towards the front). Swinburn's charge just seemed to get done for toe in a race that wasn't run at an overly solid pace and he usually needs that to get involved. Today, there doesn't look to be a whole lot of out and out pace, but with the big field containing plenty of prominent racers, I'm hopeful that a couple of them will make it a true test at the trip. Tagula Night looks exceptionally well handicapped now, as he began racing this year off a mark of 87 and then got put up to 91 by the handicapper after a staying-on ¼ length 2nd to the then in-form Solemn over 5f at Nottingham, a C&D which I don't think is ideal. That run was also after a 259 day lay-off, making it look all the more impressive. Since only running solid, unspectacular races since then, he has tumbled all the way down to a rating of 82, with the capable Sean Levey taking off a further 3lbs to leave him looking even better at the weights (horse also drops into a 0-85 for first time since winning this - and this is his level). Since running last time out, he's effectively 10lbs better off with Oneladyowner (4/1 fav here) for a 7 length beating - which would of been shorter if it wasn't for him being hampered - and given how Swinburn's animal didn't run to his best there (not even close), I think the form can be swung around here. Connections now replace his tongue-tie/visor combination with a hood and that looks interesting, as if it has the desired effect and perks this fellow back to his best, he's in with a massive chance (doubtful that it'll be that simple!). The jockey on board today - Sean Levey - isn't in great form of late but he's not exactly getting too many top rides and plenty of his runners have went close, so hopefully he's due a bit of luck. He's a good jockey too from what I've seen over the season. Swinburn is in similar form, as he hasn't had a winner since 30 runners ago, but enough are going well to suggest that it's not a massive issue. The biggest worry I'd have is the jockey's experience of the tricky Goodwood track, as he has only ridden 11 horses here, with 3 placing. Hopefully he can get Tagula Night to show his best, as conditions will suit and the track definitely suits - so there's no excuses in that regard. The simple matter is that 20/1 is way too big, he should be no bigger than 10/1 against this field, but he's still a risky proposition. I'll play small/medium stakes on him in the hope that he bounces back to his best, because if he does, he wins. Could as easily come last though, so it's not a bombproof selection by any means! William Jarvis' 3 year old colt - Lokies Revenge (16/1) - was the other that interested me at a price.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Awesome stuff boy. :clap

[Lars]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) :ok:ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Absolutely buzzing in the extreme! Cheers men. :notworthy

[bowles10]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) well done mate, levey had a great treble down there today

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) Cheers bud. Yeah he's no joke that fella, just needs to get the rides and he'll be even better. Seems a nice guy from what I've heard too. I like him now. :lol

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Maintaining Sanity (+220pts) well done monte,yet again proof that no matter how many bad days there are,the great days are just round the corner and so much sweeter:ok