Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:50 Catterick - Fast Shot - 3pts @ 10/3 (Boylesports) Connections of the talented, tough and progressive Fast Shot seem to have their eyes on a tilt at the Ayr Gold Cup (or one of the consolation races) in a few weeks and if he's to get into that race, he's going to have to win a couple of contests in order to line up. Trained by Tim Easterby, this relatively lightly-raced 3 year old is going places having won on 3 of his 7 outings this year and placing on the other 4 occasions. He's as consistent as they come and although all of his wins have come over 6 furlongs, the step up to 7f at this speedy track will suit without doubt. The only worry is the possibly loose ground, but I'll take my chances. The form of Fast Shot's most recent win is interesting. On his penultimate start - over 6 furlongs at Doncaster - Tim Easterby's charge ran out a 1 length winner, beating York Glory (2nd off 78) and Shesastar (3rd off 75). The former has went on to land handicaps off mark of 83 & 88 in his following pair of runs (drop to minimum trip helped), the most recent being an ultra-impressive victory and that of one who could tackle Listed races in time. Shesastar also won on her next outing, off a mark of 79. The step up to 7f on softer ground done the trick with her and although I don't like taking form too literally, it doesn't look half-bad at all. Fast Shot has run since that impressive victory and produced a solid staying-on 2nd behind a former Michael Stoute trained, unexposed sprinter over 6f at the stiff Leicester track. That was a good effort to come here on the back of and I'm certain there's more to come, especially over an easy 7 furlongs. Tim Easterby has campaigned this fellow exceptionally well and he seems to have found another very winnable opportunity for a horse that only cost 1,000gns as a foal. He also has a victory to his name over this track and previous course experience is very handy at a place like Catterick. With a decent pace likely and most things being to suit, Fast Shot looks very well priced at 10/3. It's normally a price I wouldn't be too keen to play but I think he should be favourite (around 7/4 would be fair) and hopefully he will justify that thought. The yard are in good form, the horse is in great form and the opposition aren't overly talented, plus none have experience of the track. All going well, David Allen will hold him in behind the pace and get him motoring with a couple of furlongs to go - then he'll run down the leaders inside the final furlong in his typically gritty and determined style. Hopefully he does, as I've played medium stakes and really expect this fellow to oblige. Maverick (8/1) could put up the sternest test if he can settle over this longer trip (although he possibly needs a stiffer test).

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Close but no cigar on the last day of posting. Fast Shot ran a cracker in defeat, eventually going down by the smallest of margins despite having looked home and hosed at one stage. He kept going to the line but the winner just had that little bit more and managed to get up in the closing stages. Tim Easterby's charge has more to come over this 7f trip and he'll remain of interest for a while yet, although he's so consistent that it'll be tough to get any sort of price about him in contests that he's up to winning. We'll see how it goes anyways and he's one who could have some tasty prizes in him as a 4 year old. Dubara Reef was well-supported but showed little of his old zest and never got involved. He may prefer racing handy in behind slower gallops and it just wasn't to be his day. He'll bounce back though, as he's a horse with plenty of talent and is looking very well handicapped now. -4.00pts on the day. Relatively brief posts today as I'm awful tired! 4:10 Ripon - Pleasant Day - 1.50pts e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports) It usually pays dividends to race handy around Ripon but with a decent pace being likely over this trip (just shy of 1m 2f), I'm thinking that those coming from behind will be favoured. The tactically versatile Pleasant Day looks to be a lively contender in his attempt to give Richard Fahey his first win in this race since '02 and I'd imagine this is a race they consider their talented 4 year old to have a great chance of winning. Recent stable form would have to be a worry, as they're not firing as they can, but I'll take my chances as the price is a few points too big as it stands. Pleasant Day comes here on the back of a trio of very uninspiring runs, but he has had excuses and always finds those big-field, C2 handicaps all too much. He seems to be at his best when attempting to pull off weight-carrying performances against inferior rivals and that's what he's back doing for the first time since landing a decent handicap at this course in June. That was off a 1lb lower mark and over a furlong shorter (needed every yard to get up) than the trip he faces today, so with the extra distance and ground conditions to suit, he's most certainly not handicapped out of things. Pleasant Day is a former Brian Meehan inmate and just lost out by a short-head in a soft-ground 7f Group 3 contest as a juvenile, proving that he's a very talented individual (rated 104 after). Like plenty of good juveniles, he struggled throughout his 3 year old campaign (only ran 4 times though) as a result of that fine Group performance and he performed modestly, although excuses for a couple of the runs are easily found. He seems to be taking his racing well since joining this yard and I'd imagine this race has been the target for a while. Paul Hanagan is riding fairly well of late and rides this course as well as any, with 43 course wins coming his way over the years. Pleasant Day should run a good race here and 12/1 looks a fine each-way price for him. Small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll run a good race now that he's back to a level he can most certainly compete at. It's a competitive race though, so anything could happen.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 2:40 Epsom - Clear Praise - 2pts @ 10/1 (Boylesports) Plenty can be given a chance in this competitive sprint but Clear Praise is going to come good on turf some day soon and I intend to be on board the money train. Simon Dow is a tricky man to get right, as he's often lining up his animals for a punt and that could be the case here once again. His 4 year old is a very unexposed sort, having only run on 13 occasions and just 5 times on turf. He's won 3 times in his short career to date, twice at Kempton (in h'caps over this 6f trip, showing a nice turn of foot on both occasions) and once at Lingfield (in a poor maiden over 5f). Regardless of his wins coming on polytrack, he should have no problems getting off the mark on turf fairly soon. Today, Clear Praise lines up to run off a mark of 75 and it is one that he should be more than capable of defying. He ran once over C&D last month when finishing 3½ lengths off the pace in 4th place and that came off a 5lb higher mark in which he was given a fairly "easy" ride (bare form of that race tying in with others here should mean he's much shorter than 10/1). He took a keen hold in what was a modestly run race for the trip (suited those handy, he was held-up) and didn't look 100% happy on the track, although it shouldn't be an issue now (ran decent race over 5f at this course since - too slow for trip). With conditions to suit and a solid pace being very likely, I expect to see the in-form Hayley Turner coming late and fast in an attempt to get this fellow off the mark on turf at the sixth attempt. Clear Praise has the talent to win this and 10/1 looks much too big. It's a tricky race though, so small win stakes is all I'll play on him (price doesn't make each-way worth it at 1/5 of the odds for a place). He's priced based on a poor run at Newmarket last time out and there were excuses, along with the track not being the ideal place for him. I think Epsom will suit and now that he's got previous experience of the track - both being solid efforts - we can expect a good run. He's well handicapped, goes on the ground and looks very overpriced. Hopefully he'll oblige.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) No joy at all. Clear Praise was very poor, eventually trailing home in last position. They switched to prominent tactics today and I don't think it suits him at all, plus I doubt today was the intended day given how he drifted on the exchange before the off. There's definitely a win in this fellow sometime soon and I'll be keeping an eye out to see where they head in the near future. Pleasant Day was fairly well supported and just missed out on a place by a neck, not helped by some pretty modest riding from Paul Hanagan in the closing stages. Maybe the horse had nothing left to give but it's still pretty annoying. At least it represented a return to form for this useful animal and he'll continue to be of interest on the next occasion that he's tackling opposition who are rated inferior to him. Yesterdays race suited those coming from off the pace and he did best of the prominent racers, so I feel the effort can be marked up, despite it being an unfavourable result! -5.00pts on the day, disappointing. Roll on Saturday! Caught for time, so today's only write-up will be fairly short. 3:50 Folkstone - Osiris Way - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) Plenty of disappointing, modest types line out for this 5f sprint but a return to form from Osiris Way would see him in with an exceptional chance here and make an 8/1 price-tag look much too big. Whether Patrick Chamings' 9 year old veteran can bounce back is debatable, as he seems to have lost his way of late, but I'll take my chances. He's often one that goes well fresh and with a 4 week break since a below-par effort at Newbury, I'm hopeful that he'll be freshened up sufficiently. Osiris Way's opening couple of efforts showed that he still retains plenty of his old ability and with the track taken to be the ideal place for him, a good run could be on the cards if he shows his old sparkle. He's exceptionally well handicapped off a mark of 80 (below last winning mark for first time) and he's taking a drop down to a 0-80 contest for the first time since winning in June of '07. That's a big plus, as if he's on his game he could blow these out of the water, although that's no sure thing at all. The more than capable and in-form John Fahy takes the ride and a valuable 3lbs off his back, so yet more positives are easily found. With a race run to suit, conditions to suit, a track to suit and the likelihood that he'll eventually bounce back into the winners enclosure, I think 8/1 is too big against this opposition. He's a risky proposition though, so small win stakes are all I'll play. Any race that Go Nani Go is favourite for is not the best of contests and the Patrick Chamings (trainer 2-8 at track last 5 years, 1-1 this year, only runner today) trained runner will hopefully take advantage of his falling mark.

[CreditCruncher]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Nice detailed betting log mate. One thing tho, might seem like a dumb question but why do you say, for example, '2pts @ 8/1'? I dont know what pts (presumably meaning points) are supposed to be?

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Cheers CC. A point is just a unit of stake, 1 being a low confidence and stake selection, with 5 being a max confidence and stake selection. It's just handy for people who don't want to say in monetary terms what 1 point is to them. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Osiris Way disappointed on Wednesday, eventually finishing in last place. I don't think that's a true reflection of how he ran though, as he shaped very well mid-race and was beaten as a result of trying catch the winner who had made all of the running. The way in which Patrick Chamings' charge traveled was impressive and although the result was poor, he showed a lot more than in his previous few outings. He was also well-backed from 8's into 7/2, so he must be showing some of his old sparkle again. With his trio of better seasonal results coming over a stiffer 5 furlongs, it may pay to side with him again when returned to similar tracks. -2.00pts on the day. August stats will be posted after Saturday's racing. 1:40 Haydock - Invincible Lad - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports) 10 runners line up for this competitive 5 furlong sprint and it's sure to be one run at a furious pace due to a large amount of front-runners lining up. All of this this will suit Dandy Nicholls' 7 year old - Invincible Lad - as he often does his best work late on after a strong pace collapses, which is likely to happen here. The main worry is that he won't be able to go the early pace, which happened last time out (softer ground and slow break not helping matters) but the price negates the risk and I'll take my chances. Invincible Lad has run on 5 occasions since joining this yard for 13,000gns following an unsuccessful couple of years for Eric Alston. A few of his seasonal outings have been quite poor, but the other couple gave cause for plenty of optimism, not least when he finished a 2½ length 7th of 17 in a competitive handicap at Goodwood last month. Nicholls' charge was doing his best work late having found himself outpaced and with this track having less of an emphasis on raw speed, similar late work could lead to him having enough time to reel in the leaders. This race is also a fair bit weaker, which helps, and if he can up his game just a little bit more, I think he should run into a place at least. It's 2 years to the month since Invincible Lad last tasted victory and although animals with this profile always carries a risk, there's no man like Dandy Nicholls to coax them back to form. He has a very well-handicapped horse on his hands and with conditions and a race run to suit, victory could be achieved for the first time in a long time. The form of the yard would be a worry, as they've only had 1 winner from the last 49 runners, but with another 9 finishing in the places, that stat may not tell the whole story. Adrian Nicholls wouldn't lead a duck to water, so I would of preferred to see a different jockey on board but he has a great record at the track and hopefully he can add to it here. At the end of the day, this horse is a 20/1 shot but he's talented, should have conditions to suit (bar rain), will have a race to suit and has a handicap mark that he'll eventually take advantage of. Backing any of the front-runners is a massive risk and with a bit of luck, Invincible Lad will come at them late and fast to land the spoils. Small each-way stakes though, as it's a risky bet on a horse that could come last. Hopefully he won't though.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:10 Haydock - Ryan Style - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) Another relatively low-confidence bet here but Ryan Style could well outrun his price-tag if things pan out to suit. With the draw often proving an important factor over sprint trips at Haydock, Lisa Williamson's relatively lightly-raced 5 year old has a nice sit in stall 8 and could well take advantage if they go a good clip up front. It seems likely that they will and if the wonderfully talented Silvestre De Sousa can get a nice sit in behind the pace and some luck in-running, this previous C&D winner could add to his tally. Ryan Style landed that C&D contest in impressive fashion when scoring by 1¾ lengths off a 4lb lower mark back in June, proving he stayed a truly run 6f in the process (had looked like he wouldn't). The way in which he traveled and picked up was very good and it was in the manner of a horse who could get better still. All 3 of his turf wins have come on genuinely quick ground, so the good ground today makes it a bit of a risk but given how he ran at Epsom over 5f (shaping as if in need of 6f) on softer going, I don't think it's a big worry at all. He just needs things to fall right and if they do, 12/1 will look like a big price. The opposition are no mugs at all and if La Zamora was drawn higher, I'd be pulling out big stakes. She has also shortened significantly in the market and having missed the 14's that were around earlier, I can't take the 13/2 about her now. The price may have moved because she's being tipped up left, right and centre - including by the RP Spotlight people - so I imagine it's not an overnight David Barron influenced price move! She's a big danger if not being inconvenienced by the draw but I just can't take the price that's there now. A small stake-saver wouldn't be a bad idea though. Others of interest include Rio Cobolo (16/1) and Jobe (14/1) but I'm sticking with Lisa Williamson and Silvestre De Sousa to do the business here. Small each-way stakes as it's a very tough race to call and many can be given a chance, but Ryan Style has shaped well last twice with excuses being easily made and I think he's got another win in him off this sort of mark, especially since he's only ran 17 times and may be open to further progression. Hopefully he'll go well and run into a place at least.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:40 Haydock - Misplaced Fortune - 3pts @ 8/1 (Boylesports) When Nigel Tinkler applies a visor on Misplaced Fortune, you should take notice. Her overall career record reads; 4 wins, 7 seconds and 7 thirds from 40 outings. With the visor on board, that record reads; 4 wins, 3 seconds and a third from just 10 runs, with the other two outings being solid efforts where she wasn't beaten further than 3 lengths. It seems to perk her up to no end and it seems a sign of intent that Nigel Tinkler has his 6 year old mare ready to win again. Further cause for optimism can be gained from Misplaced Fortune's current handicap mark, as she's now rated 7lbs lower than her cracking effort in the Ayr Silver Cup last September (still higher than last winning mark mind). In that race, she finished a 2¾ length 3rd of 25 and even won the race on her side of the track, which was a great effort. She's only lined out on 3 occasions this year, the first being a solid effort in a race that she was expected to come on for and the other couple were in races where she was completely drawn out of the equation in big-field handicaps at speedy tracks (had to be held up both times, runs best from the front). The return to a smaller field will suit and a sit in stall 7 gives her jockey, Dale Swift, numerous options. Swift was the man on board for that run at Ayr and he takes off a valuable 3lbs off her back, making her look weighted even better. He was also on board last time out for the first time since last year and I often see that as a positive thing (another tilt at Ayr on the mind, will need to win here). Misplaced Fortune now drops back to C4 level for the first time in a long time and if she's on her game, it'll take a very, very good horse to beat her off this rating. The race will be run to suit, the ground holds no fears and application of a visor seems a clear indication of the yards intent. Medium stakes for me and I wouldn't be surprised if she went off at around 3/1, which would be a true reflection of her chances here. Jarrow is one I'd be wary of and a stake saver on him isn't a bad idea either.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:10 Haydock - Amitola - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill) A tentative selection yet again but David Barron's Amitola could have a lively chance if she bounces back to form on the back of a 2 month lay-off. On the showings of her only couple of outings this year, she's got no chance but a fairly easy 7f should suit and her handicap mark of 87 should not prove to be insurmountable. This is the first time that she tackles this trip but she's bred to get it and if doing so, a big performance could be in the offing. Last season - as a 3 year old - Amitola lined out on 5 occasions. Her only win came in a soft ground 6f handicap at the stiff Newmarket track and she showed a cracking attitude in the process. Her next - and last - outing of 2010 came in a Listed contest at the same track. Again, she battled on gamely and managed to finish a 1 length 3rd of 14, gaining valuable black-type in the process. It probably wasn't the best Listed contest about but she performed admirably and got within a length of the very useful winner (placed twice at Group 3 level since). Some good animals line out in opposition today but if Amitola improves for the step up in trip and goes well fresh - as she has done in the past - there's every chance that she can go well. She's got a plum draw in stall 1 and that gives the talented Lee Newman plenty of options, as getting a prominent position on this filly is a necessity. With the Barron yard being in good form and this being a race that doesn't look beyond his useful filly, I'm hopeful that she can run into a place at least. She's only run on 9 occasions and it's more than likely that a rating of 87 is not the ceiling of her ability. 20/1 is much too big and I'll play small each-way stakes in the hope that she's primed and ready to attack. Any market support would be a big plus and it'd tempt me to put on larger stakes.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Another close day but no luck was to be found. Invincible Lad ran a solid race in finishing a half-length 2nd at a big price of 20/1 and he may have done even better if it wasn't for the combination of a slow start and a troubled passage forcing him to lose a bit of ground on the eventual winner. The race was set up for him and he ran very well. He remains of interest when getting his conditions and I'll be on board again, as this was a definite return to form and he's well-handicapped nowadays. Small profit from a place paying 1/5 of the price. Ryan Style also ran a good race, finishing 3rd having been backed at 12/1. He couldn't go on in the closing stages but didn't have any chance of catching the winner regardless. There should be more races in him but I doubt I'll be on again, as he needs plenty to fall right in order to score. Misplaced Fortune was a horse who I felt was worthy of a price-tag of around 3/1 and that's the price she went off, having been heavily supported in from 8/1 in the morning. She ran a solid race to finish 4th and looked the winner when coming with a menacing run but with her move being made in the center of the track, she faced a tough task of repelling those running alongside the stands' side, which is the fastest part of the track. Her run petered out and a trio of animals racing in a better position overtook her. It was a solid effort though and she'll be winning again soon, possibly at Ayr where she's likely to line up again. Amitola ran well, showing up prominently before being one-paced in the closing stages of her first attempt at 7f. She needs the pace to collapse and with the winner having made-all, it was an impossible task and she faded into 5th position. She remains of interest for the coming weeks and The Barron will unlock the key to her again, possibly when tackling softer ground. +/- 0pts on the day, nothing lost, nothing gained. Can't complain but it could of been different with some luck in-running. Short write-ups for today, as there'll be plenty of bets. Kicking off with Ascot first. 3:15 Ascot - Palace Moon - 1.50pts e/w @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places) Competitive 16-runner handicap in the offing here, with plenty in with a shout of landing the spoils. There are a couple of pace angles but not enough to ensure a very fast gallop, although I'd be hopeful that they'll go along at a good jog. With the ground being good, good-to-firm on the straight course, William Knight's talented 6 year old - Palace Moon - could have a very lively chance of upsetting the odds if rain doesn't arrive. The key to him is genuinely fast ground and if it happens to be like that come race time, I'd mark him down as being worthy of a single-figure price. Things haven't went to plan this year but Palace Moon is very talented on his day and as a result of disappointing so far this year, he's now exceptionally well-handicapped off a mark of 100. In 2010, he placed from a 5lb higher mark in the Wokingham Stakes over 6f at this course (placed off same mark in similarly tough race straight after, over this trip at stiff Newmarket track) and that was despite being set a stiff task mid-race (held-up until very late). The extra furlong at this course will suit and regardless of how the race is run, he should be suited by it. It's just a case of whether he gets his ground and it's a possibility, making his current 33/1 price-tag look completely mental. Rain could arrive and he could have no chance, but the price outweighs the risk. This season, Palace Moon hasn't really had conditions to suit (set stiff tracks a Group level on soft ground, seemed to need opening run previous to that - traveled well though), bar last time out and he just didn't sparkle when William Knight's animals weren't going well. They're not exactly in great form now either but this horse is very well-treated and is due to come-to-hand at some stage soon. At his best, no animal could live with him in this race off his current mark - assuming conditions were right - and to price him up as a 33/1 shot just seems wrong. If things pan out during the run, I expect to see a very good performance and hopefully he'll get conditions to suit. It's a big risk though, so I'm just playing small/medium each-way stakes, but he could be a very lively outsider. Alan Bailey's Lowther would be my next-best, but he's only 11/1. He's worthy of a small bet though.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:45 Ascot - Seelo - 2pts @ 11/1 (Bet365) John Gosden has his string in fine order and the talented Seelo could add to his recent tally of winners by landing the spoils in this competitive mile-and-a-half handicap. He's an unexposed, relentless-galloping colt who seems to need to turn it on from the front and although more reserved tactics were used last twice, he still showed up as an animal who has plenty of ability. This is a tricky race though and anything could happen but at a price of 11/1 (12's non-BOG), he's worth siding with here. Seelo has only lined out on 6 occasions to date (further progression extremely likely), winning a maiden first time up and a handicap by 7 lengths off a mark of 80 at the sharp, stiff Pontefract track. Wedged in-between those outings was a 2nd place behind Leger fancy Census over 1m 3f at Newbury and I'm not fully convinced that that track is totally to his liking, plus he was inexperienced and seems to be the type who's going to improve for his racing. Overall, it's decent form and with his last two outings being eye-catching - yet unspectacular - I think we're getting a price that's much too big for an animal with undoubted ability. It just seems like he needs to be ridden to grind them into the floor (lacks a turn of pace, gallops forever) and I'm hopeful that Nicky Mackay will be given those instructions today, especially considering he's well-drawn in stall number 3. Current favourite, Fulgur, finished a full 8 lengths ahead of my selection when they faced off over 1m 2f at Newmarket in July but with this step up in trip being combined with a 12lb swing in the weights favouring John Gosden's Seelo, that form could be switched around here, thus making 11/1 look even bigger again. Other pieces of form give him a chance, including an unlucky-in-running 2 length 5th of 10 on his first attempt at this trip last time out. The return to faster ground could also suit and overall, the price is just too big. Tricky race though, so it's just small win stakes for this selection. Don't think it's worthwhile to stake-cut in order to go each-way. I'll take a chance!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Now to Haydock. 2:00 Haydock - Rainfall - 3pts @ 4/1 (Bet365) It's clear as day that Godolphin's 4 year old filly, Rainfall, just wasn't right when making her debut for Saeed Bin Suroor and I fancy her to bounce back with a decisive success in a race filled with tricky animals. As a 3 year old, when trained by Mark Johnston, this talented animal climbed the ranks in impressive fashion. She landed the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on just her third outing and went on to place on a couple of occasions at Group 1 level. A return to anything like her old self would see her win this and I feel that she should be a much shorter priced favourite than she currently is. Rainfall made her seasonal reappearance - and debut for Godolphin - over a mile at Goodwood, a notoriously awkward track. Whilst she seemed to move alright through the race, she didn't pick up at all and was eventually eased down before coming home in last place. Connections revealed that she had injured herself a few days before the race and that's more than likely what caused such a poor showing from a very good animal. I'm willing to write that race completely off and in doing so, I expect to see her win here. Rainfall has had a couple of months off and should be capable of bouncing back to her best, plus it's also interesting that she still holds Group 1 & 2 entries for races coming later this month. She must be showing something to have retained entries in those contests and there's bound to be enough in the tank to win this despite being fresh from a lay-off. Conditions will be perfect regardless of rain or shine, as she seems to go on any ground. The return to this type of track should also suit and she's likely to get a good toe into the race, although I'd imagine that there'd be no problems if she had to make the running herself. Overall, I think 4/1 is much too big and personally, I reckon half that price would represent her realistic chance. Medium stakes for me and hopefully she'll go well. There's very little reason as to why she shouldn't.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 2:30 Haydock - Deauville Flyer - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365) Tim Easterby's Deauville Flyer is an old favourite of mine and I'm confident that he's more than capable of getting involved in what is yet another competitive handicap, this time over 1m 6f. It's quite possibly that this 22-time raced 5 year old needs further, as he's one who loves a stamina sapping race. However, with 17 animals lining out here, they're likely to go a good clip and turn it into a race where the real stayers come out on top. Assuming they do, the current price-tag of 10/1 about him may provide a nice bit of value. In recent outings, Deauville Flyer hasn't managed to win but in all of his runs this season, he has proved to be the model of consistency and is rarely beaten too far. Due to that, he's still going up the weights but his fine effort over 2 miles at York (very well-backed) showed that he's still going the right way and it actually rated as a career-best outing, especially impressive considering the race was run all wrong for him. If getting a solid pace to run at, there's no doubting that he'll get involved at some stage, it just depends on whether he doesn't find a few too good as is often the case nowadays. The first-time blinkers look to be an interesting manouver and if they can have a positive effect, it could coax out the extra improvement needed to land a contest of this nature, especially as he has looked awkward on occasion. Tim Easterby's yard aren't in great form but Graham Gibbons hops on board the consistent Deauville Flyer for the first time and he was 2 from 4 when riding for this yard last month. He's one of my favourite jockeys and could be in for a great day with a Group 1 ride on a favourite coming later on, so what better way to wind up for that by landing the spoils here! Overall, this horse should be given one more chance and with course, conditions (suited by forecast rain) and how the race will be run all being to suit, he could get off the mark for this season at the lucky number 7th attempt. Small win stakes again, as it's an awfully tough race.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:00 Haydock - Cheveton - 1.50pts e/w @ 14/1 (Boylesports) This is the time of year to start backing Richard Price's Cheveton and he looks to have a good chance of running well if readied on the back of a couple of months off the track. It's clear that Haydock's 5f is a good place for this talented 7 year old, as he has won on all 3 occasions that he has visited this C&D, including this race in '09 off a 4lb higher mark and another victory over Hoof It (favourite for Group 1 after this race) from a 5lb higher mark. Cut in the ground is needed and with heavy rain apparently on the way, he may have conditions to suit and that'll make this price look massive. He's also well-positioned in stall 9 and should have a race run to suit, although he is tactically versatile. Cheveton's showings this year have left a lot to be desired but this happens year in, year out, as he's always one to come good towards the end of the campaigns when the slower ground comes out to play. It's a risk backing him now as the rain hasn't come yet (if it doesn't - abort, abort!) but it's one worth taking as it looks likely to arrive in the morning, then we'll see his price plummet. The opposition are no mugs here but the favourite, Zero Money, is 3/1 despite never having tackled the minimum trip in his 17 race career. It will probably suit but I think the price is much too short to get involved with. He's also a fast ground horse, so his chances could be scuppered by rain. A few others come into the conclusion but Cheveton is very much overpriced at 14/1 and can run into a place at the very least, even if he doesn't get a whole lot of cut in the ground. He's well-handicapped, loves the track and will get a race run to suit. Hopefully he'll go well and it's small/medium each-way stakes for me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:35 Haydock - Dalghar - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Betfred) I like taking a big-priced animals in the sprints and Dalghar fits the bill here, as he's crazily overpriced at 50/1. He's often his own worst enemy, caused by acting up in the parade ring and this has happened every time he has raced since joining the Andrew Balding stable. However, with the application of a hood being capable of bringing this formerly very useful French-trained 5 year old back to his best, I think he's being completely overlooked here despite having the ability needed to win this contest. Dalghar also has the benefit of the highest draw in stall 16 and this track seems the type of place that could bring out the best in him. It's not long ago that he was sent off as a well-backed 8/1 shot in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and again, he blew his chance by being coltish and acting the maggot in the parade ring. If he can calm down beforehand and bowl along in front from a perfect draw, I think he's got a chance of causing a shock here and giving David Probert a massive victory to add to his record. He's 50/1 for a reason but they're reasons I'm willing to overlook and take a small each-way punt on him making the frame. He was previously rated 117 and that'd mark him down as the joint-fourth best animal in the race (if he was at his best), so it's not like he's a complete no-hoper if learning how to relax again. Andrew Balding is great at coaxing them back to form and if he can do that here, his animal has a chance. None of the others really interest me and I'd be tempted by Hoof It if he wasn't so short in the betting. Rain would be a welcomed addition for my selection and hopefully it comes - as if it does, and he behaves beforehand - 10/1 would be a realistic representation of his chances. Small each-way bet though, as he's as risky as they come.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Worst. day. ever. Time to drink myself into oblivion.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Can't be bothered going into too much detail about those I backed on Saturday, as it all ended in tears. Rainfall shaped well for a long time before being one-paced. A drop back to 7f will suit her. Deauville Flyer was hampered a couple of times, with the first one ruining his chance when he was still going fairly well. The ground was probably a bit lively and he's one for another day. Cheveton ran a cracker on ground he hates and is most certainly one to keep an eye on. Dalghar also shaped well in the big Group 1 sprint and when the rain comes out, he'll go well. The hood seemed to help him to behave for once and hopefully it'll continue to do so in the future. He's got loads of talent. At Ascot, Palace Moon was useless, not helped by a slow gallop. Seelo ran a cracker and seems to be still going the right way, although his lack of a finishing kick is always going to hinder his chances of winning. He's game though and connections will figure him out soon. -15.00pts on the day and one of my worst punting days in a long time. Hopefully things will change around soon, as I've dropped 30 points since Margot Did landed the Nunthorpe a fortnight ago. It's just one of those barren spells I suppose. 1:50 York - Satanic Beat - 2.50pts @ 4/1 (Bet365) 10 runners are set to go to post for this Nursery and Satanic Beat looks likely to give it a good shot. Jedd O'Keeffe's talented juvenile has run well on all of his 3 career outings to date. He placed first time up at Newcastle over an inadequate 5 furlongs (ran green but only beaten ¾ of a length) and stepped up on that performance when he lined out at this track over 6f in July. Having been outpaced during the race, he stayed on stoutly under pressure to win going away in what was a decent little contest. That win entitled him to run off a mark of 80 a few weeks later and again, he lined up over 6f at York, this time on slightly slower ground. He didn't come under pressure as easily as before but once he was asked for an effort, all the doors were closed and he just couldn't get through (hampered also). Eventually Tom Queally switched him and he finished well to come a 2 length 5th of 16, a short-head behind the similarly fast-finishing On The Hoof, who's the current 5/2 favourite for this race (gambled overnight from 6/1). O'Keffee's charge is 3lbs better off though and I reckon the step up to 7f is will suit him more that Mick Easterby's runner (who is bred to be a sprinter but shapes as if he'll get this trip - risky), so the prices have to be wrong on that basis. Satanic Beat has quite a nice action so the current good ground won't hinder his chances and even if the rain comes, he shouldn't have a problem. Overall, he's probably double the price he should be an I'll play medium win stakes. I'd go in heavier if it wasn't for my dislike of juvenile races - as they're hard for me to call - but this fellow should be up to running a big race. He has a lot more to come and a mark of 80 should not inconvenience, it's just a matter of whether something in the field has a lot more in hand, which is possible but hopefully won't be the case. The yard are also in decent form with 3 winners and a second from their 13 runners in August.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 3:30 York - Striking Spirit - 0.75pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365, 4 places) A few things will need to go to plan in order to see Striking Spirit win this race and the first of those would be for the rain to stay well away from the York track. If it does, Tim Easterby's talented, speedy and often unlucky 6 year old could win for the first time since landing a big-field handicap over this C&D 2 years ago (off 2lb higher mark against inferior animals to that of which he faces today). With this sprint track often favouring those racing handy and a draw in stall 14 being a decent spot to sit, he could prove to be massively overpriced. His recent form is most deceptive, as he's not a slower ground animal at all, even though his best run of the season came on soft ground at his beloved Ascot. At the Royal meeting, Striking Spirit tackled 7 furlongs for the first time in his career and along with that, encountered properly soft ground for only the second time. He ran a screamer (not sure how he did it!) from an exceptionally poor draw in stall 2 and would of been the winner if it hadn't of been for that. He actually beat the nearest challenger from the centre group by a full 6 lengths and it rates as a cracking effort. That track seems to bring him alive but he's running here off the same mark of 91 and it'd be a truly deserved success if he could land the spoils here. Back to the recent form - Striking Spirit was either drawn wrong or unsuited by conditions on the majority of his outings this season. He got a decent draw last time out in the St Wilfred Stakes at Ripon but the good-to-soft ground wasn't to his liking and the first-time cheekpieces didn't help either, as he looked quite awkward and even drifted the whole way to the other side of the track when coming under pressure. I'll happily put a line through that run as it wasn't to suit, nor was it a true reflection of his abilities. His penultimate start was a similar story, as the good-to-soft ground at Ascot wasn't his optimum and although he shaped well for a long time, he just couldn't go on before fading (burned too much juice when trying to take over the running). Overall, he's much better than what he has been showing of late and if the ground is decent he should run a good race. He's well-handicapped, very suited to this sort of track and more than capable of getting involved in what is effectively a 0-95 handicap. The talented John Fahy takes off a handy 3lbs from his claim and that looks to be an interesting move from connections. Striking Spirit is effectively running off a mark of 88, which is very workable and his lowest since winning at Ascot off 88 in May of '09 (when with David Nicholls). He could go very well and I'd play bigger stakes if quick ground was assured (will go in again if rain stays away). Very small each-way stakes for me but it'd be a nice return if he lands the spoils. Hopefully he will. 16/1 shot Johannes would be my next-best and may be worth a quid or two each-way.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 4:30 York - Sunrise Safari - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill, 4 places) 20 runners are set to go to post for this contest and although there's so many lining up, it's not exactly an amazing contest with regards to the quality of the opposition. Therefore, I'm going to take a chance on Sunrise Safari to come good in a handicap for the first time since April of 2010 (won claimer on final start of that season). The betting would suggest that he's the second-string for the Richard Fahey yard but with the other being a perennial loser, I couldn't be having him despite the fact that Paul Hanagan hops back on board. Sunrise Safari is now 8 years old and thoroughly exposed but this 7-time winner won a 6f handicap off a 6lb higher mark last year and looks well-treated here on a couple of his efforts this year. A ½ length defeat to the useful Jarrow at Hamilton a few starts ago is a good effort to rate his well-being on and I think this easier 7f may suit more than that stiff 6f. He has never won over this trip but remains unexposed over it, as he's only tackled 7f - or further - on 5 occasions. There's no problems with him getting the trip as he showed on his outing before the Hamilton run when coming a 2 length 2nd over 7f 100y at Beverley, which is a stiff track that takes some getting. That wasn't a great contest but they were relatively small fields and this big-field is much more to his liking, as he often runs well in them and needs a solid toe into the race. Lee Topliss takes off 3lbs and he's an excellent jockey, plus he's effectively leaving this animal running off a mark of 75 - his lowest ever. Sunrise Safari's Class 4 record reads 3 wins and 2 seconds from 10 runs and this race is anything but beyond his capabilities. I think 20/1 is a cracking each-way price and he's surely worth a small bet, despite him being tough to win with nowadays. He has everything to suit (bar an ocean of rain) and could outrun his price if on a going day (tends to be a moody so-and-so). It's actually such a poor race that I'd struggle to pick out another to back. They're all dodge-pots, but this exposed veteran has a squeak at a fancy price.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Frustration once again - mainly with Satanic Beat, as he threw away his chance by hanging to his left when coming to throw down a challenge to the eventual winner. He was well-backed, eventually going off as the 5/2 favourite and I thought he was coming with a winning run, but inexperience got the better of him. There's races to be won with him on softer ground this autumn and it'll be interesting to see where he heads next. I'll be on again, price dependent. Disappointing that he could only muster up 3rd place when he was obviously fancied to do the business, but them's the breaks. Striking Spirit put in a poor performance at York, although it's easily forgiven as the ground wasn't in his favour at all. He's a very talented animal but rarely gets the opportunity to show his best for one reason or another. I'm keeping faith though and when he's out on fast ground next season, there'll be races to be won with him, especially now that he's so well handicapped. Sunrise Safari was the only animal to return any money, as he finished 3rd having been backed each-way at 20/1. It was another solid run from this useful campaigner and there's a win in him yet, despite his advancing years. He was under pressure a fair way out but stuck to the task well and came home nicely, although he hadn't a hope of catching the winner. Good effort and for once, I can't complain! +/- 0pts on the day. A winner would be welcomed! 4:50 Newcastle - Aegean Destiny - 0.50pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, 4 places) Quite an awful days racing ahead and there's only one catching the eye. 16 runners line out for this extended mile-and-a-half contest at Newcastle and although it's a shocking race with regards to quality (top-rated is a 62 animal), Aegean Destiny could be worth a few quid in the hope that she can gain her first win since September of '09 - achieved in a seller over 7 furlongs on just her fourth career outing. She's ultra-consistent though and rarely runs bad races, which is especially impressive considering the level she performs at. Despite being on a long losing run, this 4 year old filly has finished 2nd on 5 of her subsequent 14 outings, showing that she has a certain amount of ability over various trips. Today, Aegean Destiny tackles the stiff Newcastle track for the first time and based on her penultimate outing at Leicester (stayed on strongly into 2nd in unsuitably run race over just shy of this trip), she could relish this stamina test. There's no problem with regards to her getting the bare trip, it's just that she needs quite a lot to fall her way mid-race in order to be competitive in the closing stages (often weak-finisher). With so many runners in the field, a good pace to run at is a strong possibility and that will suit my selection for this contest. The slight ease in the ground is also a massive plus for John Mackie's charge and although she copes with quicker ground, these conditions seem to suit a lot more. Aegean Destiny is also dropping back into a C6 Handicap on turf for the first time in a long time and she has more than enough about her to get involved at this level. She's also nicely handicapped off a career-low mark of 54 and the capable Declan Cannon takes off another 3lbs. Overall, she's no sure thing to even run a decent race but with plenty being in her favour, she's worth taking a chance on. The opposition are of poor quality, so is she, and that's I'm playing very small each-way stakes.

[captaincool]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts)

4:50 Newcastle - Aegean Destiny - 0.50pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365' date=' 4 places)[/color']

Brilliant. Just brilliant. I had read your preview but was keen on La Bacouetteuse. Once that was withdrawn I decided to follow you. Great win. Well done and thank you! :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Nice one mate, delighted to finally have a winner! Hopefully there's some more to come this month. Usually keep away from those races but she looked useful before, nice to see her follow through with the effort finally. :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Legend! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Cheers mate, unlucky with your one today. The one day she follows through with an effort is the day she's blocked a couple of times in her run - typical! The joys of being a punter. :gimme

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts)

Cheers mate, unlucky with your one today. The one day she follows through with an effort is the day she's blocked a couple of times in her run - typical! The joys of being a punter. :gimme

Haha, i have had no luck in this game, luckily only playing with small stakes now though so enjoying it much more!! Have changed my strategy since today, nearly paid off today, heres hoping for Hot Spice tomorrow! :cow If it wins im off for a vindaloo! Well done again!

[cpo]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Quality stuff Monte... to find such a nice priced winner on a woeful day of racing is very impressive! You will have to lend me some of your magic :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Good call but surely was a max bet? :cigar

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Cheers men. :) Aegean Destiny ended her losing strike - and mine - by scoring a shade easily at Newcastle. The soft ground and stamina sapping, stiff track brought out the best in this previously frustrating filly and it was good to see her rewarded for her consistency. Always going fairly well throughout, John Mackie's charge took it up with a couple to go and outstayed the rest of them up the hill to win by over a couple of lengths. The opposition were very poor though, so she didn't achieve a whole lot. I doubt she'll be one to follow up but who knows and I'd imagine she'd get a little bit further when getting similar ground conditions. Connections seem to be lining up a tilt at hurdling with her and even described her as being "electric" over obstacles when they schooled her recently. It'll be interesting to see how she progresses in that code and I'll be keeping an eye on her for sure. +7.00pts on the day after the 20p R4 is taken into account. It'll do! 3:00 Leicester - Here To Eternity - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365) Doubts over ground conditions make this a risky race to punt in but Here To Eternity is an animal that I feel could have a nice amount in hand, assuming she gets ideal conditions. What her ideal conditions are is something I can't be fully sure of and although Peter Chapple-Hyam's 3 year old filly disappointed last twice when tackling softer ground, I don't think that's what is to blame for her poor efforts. The ground is currently listed as being good-to-firm, good in places and if the rain materializes as expected, it should end up being on the slow side of good. Hopefully that won't be a problem for this animal and if the ground ends up being fairly decent, I'll be going in again. Here To Eternity only lined out once as a juvenile and although the overall result was poor (well beaten), she showed enough promise to suggest that she'd be winning races. That promise came to fruition on her opening start as a 3 year old, as this nicely-bred daughter of a 1 mile Listed winner ran out a ¾ length winner over 7f at Folkestone. She traveled very well under the hands of Jack Mitchell and once popped the question, responded in a decent manner. I don't think that track is exactly what she'd be after and even though it was a weak maiden, she showed plenty of promise for when she'd be heading off to contest handicaps. Next time out, in a competitive 14 runner handicap at Warwick, Here To Eternity was a very unlucky loser (off this mark) having suffered from traffic problems mid-race. She had a poor draw and was forced to drop in behind at the rear of the field because of it. That's not ideal at a sharp, speedy track like Warwick and racing prominently is a massive plus, as shown by the end result in that outing (first 3 raced handy in messy race). Peter Chapple-Hyam's filly made ground on the field when coming into the bend very wide in an attempt to bag the rail and although she did, it proved her undoing as a trio of horses crossed her path in the process of making that move, leaving her jockey with no option but to switch left for a run. She showed a very nice turn of foot to fly through the gaps and ran on strongly, eventually going down by just half-a-length in 4th. It was a performance that showed she was more than capable of landing some handicap prizes in the coming months. Things didn't really materialize since as Here To Eternity disappointed over 6f at Salisbury before doing similar over 7f at Yarmouth, both runs being on softer ground. I'm willing to write off those efforts fairly easily as I don't feel she had things to suit. This stiff 7 furlong test at Leicester should suit, as I expect her to get a mile in time and the fact that she's running in a bigger field should also help (needs cover, raced a bit free last time out). The yard are also in good form of late with 3 winners from their last 9 runners and when the trainer comes down to this track, he usually does very well. 27% of his runners have won (19-70) and he also shows a massive £80 LSP. William Buick takes over in the saddle for the first time and he's 3-15 on the flat for this yard. It's hopefully a sign of intent and Chapple-Hyam only comes down to Leicester with one runner today. Overall, I don't think this contest is anything special (fav won Chepstow seller last time out!) and this filly could take plenty of beating if she can put her last couple of outings behind her. The ground is the only worry but anything that's not too soft should be suitable. Small win stakes for me - I'll be greedy and hope for the best.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) Poor effort on Tuesday. Here To Eternity disappointed by finishing out towards the rear having showed very little. It may just happen that she needs much faster ground and I'm convinced she has a lot more ability than her recent outings suggest. Maybe the straight tracks don't play into her hands either and I'll be on again when I think things are going to be more suitable. This race just didn't go to plan at all. -2.00pts on the day. 2:00 Doncaster - Magic City - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) There's no getting away from the fact that Magic City has proved to be massively disappointing since producing one of the best debut juvenile performances seen this year. However, the step up to 7 furlongs is taken to suit Richard Hannon's talented 2 year old and I can't help but thinking that he could completely outclass this Nursery if he's on song. Today, the handicapper gives him a good chance by letting him run off a mark of 88, which is one that he ran above when scooting in on debut in what was a useful 5f contest. It has proved to be a disappointing rise through the ranks for Magic City, as he hasn't managed to win any of his following 6 races - 3 of which he was sent off odds-on for. Regardless of that, his penultimate run when finishing ½-a-length behind West Leake Hare (6/1 here) over 6 furlongs at Newmarket was more than encouraging, especially as he was doing all of his best work late on at that stiff track. This easier track combined with an extra furlong could well unlock the door, assuming he manages to settle over this longer trip (can often race keenly). Connections have said that they've been teaching him to settle and with a good pace being likely, I'm hopeful that it won't be a problem. Since then, Magic City finished in mid-div at York when tackling a very valuable sales race over 6f. He traveled fairly well under the guidance of Pat Dobbs (Richard Hughes back on board today) on that occasion but the track was favouring those racing handy and he could never land a blow from the rear. There's a good chance that this test will be much more to his liking and with the Hannon yard being in good form over the past while, it will be no surprise to see him bounce back to his best. This isn't the best of races and I'm finding myself discounting plenty of the rest quite easily (my selection is a class above if on song). Due to the overall profile of Magic City, I'm only going to play small win stakes as he's not one to trust, but he should get involved here if all goes well. Here's hoping it doesn't lash down with rain, as the likely decent ground is about as bad as he wants it. The faster it is, the better.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+220pts) 2:35 Doncaster - Eureka - 2pts @ 9/2 (WillHill) Hopefully it'll be a good day for Richard Hannon as I'm also backing Eureka, another one of his impressive 2 year olds. This animal - a £20,000 purchase as a yearling - took little time to get used to this game having opened his account first time up in a useful 6 furlong Nottingham maiden, belying odds of 16/1 in the process. The second placed horse - Burwaaz - has went on to frank the form by running well at Royal Ascot (4th in G2 Norfolk Stakes) before finishing in the places at G3 & G2 level last twice. The third - Caledonian Spring - landed a Listed race in impressive style last time out, although that was over a mile. I'm not one that pay much attention to form being franked but it looked a decent maiden at the time and the front three - who were separated by a nose and a short-head - are clearly very useful animals. Eureka improved on that form when upped in grade to tackle a conditions race at the stiff Salisbury track, also over 6f. He traveled exceptionally well once again and took over the running well over a furlong out. However, the eventual runner-up came with a strong looking challenge and once he got to within ½-a-length of the Hannon colt inside the final furlong, Eureka took off again to score by over 2 lengths under the guidance of Pat Dobbs (again, Richard Hughes is back on board). It was a very impressive performance and was that of an animal who would surely go onto contest Group races in time. The form of that race is average but the visual impression was more than enough to justify the high rating that he got for that win. Connections decided to step Eureka back to 5 furlongs in an attempt to land the Weatherby's Super Sprint at Newbury. He was sent off as a well-backed 4/1 joint-favourite in the extremely competitive 25-runner race. However, playing up in the paddock and being reluctant to load may have take its toll on such an inexperienced animal and he didn't run to his best, although he was a fast-finishing 5th place in the end, just 2½ lengths off the pace - shaping as if a return to 6f was needed. It was a good effort when all things are considered. He then returned to 6f to contest the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood, a race in which Richard Hughes deserted him to take the ride on his stablemate - even-money favourite and eventual winner - Harbour Watch (who looks pure class). Eureka finished a good 5 lengths behind that one and I'm not convinced that the awkward track was to his liking. He was much too easily outpaced for a horse of his ability and I'm willing to overlook the run. Today, he tackles a 5-runner race and I'm surprised that he's not a shorter price - even though some impressive and more unexposed animals line up in opposition. Apart from Gold City, the rest haven't proven much at all and even though the likely favourite - Michael Bell's one-time-raced Alaskan Bullet - is well thought of, I just couldn't take 7/4 based on his debut run alone. Richard Hannon's colt has a lot more to give, steps back down in grade and returns to a more suitable track. He could be the class horse of the race if his stubborn ways don't cause havoc once again, but I'm willing to take the risk at a price of 9/2. He'd be a 5/2 shot if I was pricing up the race but again, it's a risky race to punt in and small win stakes are all I'll play. Hopefully he'll go well.