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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)


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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+137pts) At Newmarket, Commissar was poor in his race and never really stood a chance. He drifted to 16/1 before the off having messed about in the preliminaries and that run was probably expected. He's much better than his last couple of efforts and eventually it'll come together. One for the notebook. Mont Agel was drawn well but Hayley Turner followed the rest in going to the other side. They wouldn't of won anyways but the jockey (and others) being a sheep cost the horse a chance of running a better race. He ran terribly and there can't be any complaints. It looks like he'll be one for the end of season handicaps when the ground is softer. David Barron was correct, as Hitchens proved that he's up to running his race at Group 1 level. He traveled well but they didn't go overly quick up front, which isn't ideal for him. Once the tempo lifted, he used too much of his burst of speed just to stay in contention and had nothing left when running up the hill. A comfortable 3rd place was the final result and a +12.33pt profit was achieved from a 1pt e/w bet at 40/1, 1/3 odds for a place. Happy out and I think he'll be capable of continuing to go well at the top level. Barron has worked magic to have this 6 year old on the go all the time and constantly running well. He's a credit to the man. Brilliant trainer. Over at Ascot, Mon Brav was subject to very strong support and was backed in to 10/1 from 22/1 last night. However, he ended up running in a very small bunch down the middle of the track and never stood a chance. He came home second last and ran a shocker. There's valid excuses though and this horse will be up to winning off this mark, so he's one to pursue with for a while yet. Disappointing effort from him but completely excusable. Addictive Dream raced handily in his contest and was still bang there with a furlong to go. However, he just didn't kick on and there was probably too much use made of him early on. Given how things panned out, I'd of preferred to see him waited with but it wasn't to be. He's a very useful type and there's a big handicap in him someday. 5th place was all he could manage today but the return to 6f will suit and he's better than that. At York, Group Therapy ran a solid race to come home in 5th place. I said I wasn't convinced that the track would suit and that's exactly how it played out, as David Barron's charge got going far too late at the speed orientated track. He needs more time to find his stride and the return to a stiffer track will suit. It was still a fine effort though and he was galloping and gaining ground all the way to the line. There's a Listed race in this fellow at the very least and that'll hopefully lead to him being more competitive in Group races after getting a confidence booster. He was also very weak in the market, so I doubt today was the day anyways. Sabotage came home in 11th place and whilst it looks like a poor run on the face of it, he shaped quite well for a long time. He had to get over from a wide stall and raced wide for a good while. The pace wasn't strong, which is odd for a big field contest, and once the tempo quickened I thought the writing was on the wall for a dour stayer like him. He stuck to the task well for a long time though and was only fading away in the final furlong or so. A bit of leniency from the handicapper wouldn't go astray and some day he'll get into the winners enclosure again. I doubt it'll be on though, as he needs too many things in his favour. My best bet of the day, Green Destiny, scooted in with relative ease. That's the third year in a row that I've had the winner of the race and it's been a lucky one for me. William Haggas' charge settled towards the rear of the field and was always traveling powerfully. He had to be reined back with a few furlongs to go as his jockey went for a gap that wasn't there but once he challenged down widest of all, he picked up impressively and won readily. He's a Group horse in waiting and today's performance was sublime, although the same can't be said for the commentator who hadn't even mentioned him until the race was won. +24.00pts from a 3pt bet at 8/1 and thank God one of my darts landed in the right place. Fantastic! +23.33pts on the day and that's more like it. A winner and a place from no less than 8 bets isn't great going, but at least it was one of the strong selections who won and the big outsider who placed. I'm actually showing a profit to starting price now, which doesn't happen very often! The profit to advised stands at +137.50pts and is steadily increasing. Monthly profit stands at +12.33pts Hopefully the rest of July will be kind to me and there's more winners to come. I'll update everything next week.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+137pts) 8:30 Sandown - Rastaban - 2pts @ 13/2 (Bet365) Only 7 runners go to post here in what looks to be a reasonably competitive 3 year old contest. William Haggas comes down to Sandown with a single runner and he could go well. Rastaban, a maiden winner on his second of a couple of outings as a juvenile, comes here on the back of a disappointing effort over C&D, in which he was a very well-backed 4/1 favourite of 14. It wasn't a run void of promise though, as Haggas' charge was given far too much to do in the race by Johnny Murtagh. Rastaban was held up a long way behind a very solid pace and it proved impossible for him to make an impression on the leaders. You'd think that it would suit a horse who was virtually assured to stay the trip but I think he's one who needs to grind down those in front and won't be capable of chasing from a long way back. The way he moved at various stages of the race was encouraging and although he shapes as if being in need of further than the 1m 2f trip that he faced then and now, things could prove to be more favourable today. Mr Perceptive (a 16/1 shot then) finished in 2nd that day, a full 5 lengths ahead of Rastaban back in 8th place. However, the 4lb swing in the weights will help my selection and given how I think he under-performed that day, there should be enough in the tank to turn that form around. There's also a big price discrepancy, as the former mentioned is 3/1 and William Haggas' runner is 13/2. On the form of that race alone, it seems correct, but I'm pretty sure that the lightly-raced Rastaban will go on to be the better horse and if he's on the job today, he shouldn't be available at this price. Aiken is currently holding favouritism at 2/1 and that looks phenomenally short. He's fairly well-related and from a good yard but both of his career runs have come on a softer surface and his last time out win was at Chester, which is a completely different proposition to what he faces here. He didn't achieve a whole pile either, as the ½ length 2nd is an average 69 rated animal. Gosden's runner should have a lot more to come, but the price isn't attractive on what is his handicap debut. Misty Isles was also an impressive and easy winner last time out, but that was at Brighton in a weak maiden. She looks useful but again, this is a different proposition and a mark of 79 may not make things easy. Her 4/1 price-tag wouldn't be for me. Overall, Rastaban will probably need further in time and he's not one to place a whole lot of faith in. However, he looks likely to be suited to this smaller field contest. It's also a weaker race when compared to that of which he faced last time out. A good gallop to chase would be nice and isn't assured, so that has to be the main worry. I'm still willing to overlook that as he ran a cracker on his penultimate outing in a much tougher no-pace-race. His yard are in cracking form with 11 winners from their last 33 runners and Jamie Spencer is in a similar rich vein of form. The pairing boast a fine 20% strike-rate and this fellow is the only runner that Haggas sends out to Sandown. He will improve in time but a mark of 75 shouldn't be beyond him at all and conditions are suitable today. I think his price is a shade generous and I'd be surprised if he doesn't go off circa 4/1. Connections will be keen to get him off the mark sometime soon and this could prove to be an ideal opportunity. Small stakes though, as anything could happen. Hopefully he'll go well.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+137pts) Rastaban was subject to strong market-support yet again, eventually going off at 3/1. Original fears about a lack of pace came through as everyone was reluctant to take up the running. Despite missing the kick, my selection was able to make up the ground easily and get into the lead. He wasn't one bit happy in-front and the effort produced can be marked up significantly. It wasn't until the closing stages that he was caught and in the end, he finished a gallant second, beaten by just a head. Haggas' horse most certainly needs a pace to run at and I feel we haven't seen the best of him yet. Jamie Spencer gave him a fine ride in the circumstances and it was a pity that the drifting Gosden horse proved to be quite useful. The form of the race is pretty pointless given how things panned out but Rastaban is sure to be up to winning off this mark. He's related to plenty of useful middle-distance horses and a step up in trip awaits. On the day, he was unlucky to be beat but he gave it a cracking effort and I can't complain. He has a wonderful attitude and will get his just deserts some day. Pity it wasn't today. -2.00pts on the day. No harm done but it would of been a nice bank booster if he could of held on. 2:30 Hamilton - Jarrow - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365) It's not easy to get to grips with this seemingly wide-open sprint handicap and every runner in the field comes with an element of risk if things pan out as I expect them to. However, if Dandy Nicholls' 4 year old, Jarrow, could return to his best, he's sure to have a say in the concluding stages. He's a former Mark Johnston trained animal and it's no surprise to see pieces of good and bad form littered across his record. Similar patterns have unfolded since joining this yard and whilst it's hard to know what animal will step forward today, he's potentially thrown in on his best. Jarrow has run on 4 occasions since joining this yard for his third year of racing. The first was a decent 5th on very lively ground at Redcar, a race in which he traded at 1/5 in the run. He looked sure to come on for the run and duly stepped up on that effort when finishing 2nd in a 19 runner field over 6f at Doncaster. It probably wasn't the best big-field handicap out there but it was his best run for a long time, as he was running off 14lbs lower than his career-high mark of 90, achieved when winning easily on his 3 year old debut. A similar effort to that run at Doncaster would see him make the frame at least and now that he's tackling a much stiffer track, I feel things will be much more in his favour. Connections decided to drop Jarrow back to 5 furlongs after that effort at Doncaster and that didn't pay dividends, as despite going off the well-backed 4/1 favourite in a competitive heat, he came stone-last. That track over the minimum trip was never going to suit and I feel passing over that run is the smartest thing to do. He shaped more encouragingly when chasing a strong pace last time out at Thirsk and wasn't fully shaken off until the final furlong. He also had an unfavourable draw and may not have had an ideal racing position, so the run could be better than the bare result. Again, I think the track was not suitable and Hamilton should see him in a much better light. Jarrow is definitely going to strike for these connections soon and when the owners (Dab Hand Racing) come to this track, they seem to mean business, as 2 of theirs 4 runners have landed the spoils here. David Nicholls makes a long journey to run a couple of animals and the other is an unattractive sort in a claimer. Adrian Nicholls is only coming down to ride this fellow and he has been on board for all of his runs this year. I'm not a big fan of Adrian but when riding for these connections, he boasts a fine 22% strike-rate and a +£48 LSP. They could mean business today and I think the horse has nothing to fear here. Red Cape is a good horse but doesn't win very often. He's currently favourite, which isn't right. Mandalay King is in good form but steps up in trip and class. He also has to overcome a career-high mark and yet he's holding second favouritism at the moment. A few others have a chance and despite the betting suggesting it's a wide-open affair, it's really not. If Jarrow runs to his best, he wins. I'm not saying he will run to his best, but there's a chance that he could and 7/1 is too big. Medium stakes for me and with a bit of luck, he'll be getting involved.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+156pts) Not a bad Thursday at the office and it made up for the second place on Wednesday. Jarrow was subject to the usual jinxing by Hugh Taylor (we never click!) but it couldn't stop him gaining a ready success at a track that's ideal for him. Adrian Nicholls had him settled well in rear and when everyone else was rowing along, he was still traveling well on board this previously more than useful 4 year old. When popped the question, he showed a nice turn of foot to sweep past the long time leaders and score comfortably. The pacesetters were not coming back to him, so I feel this effort can be marked up significantly and he could be competitive in useful sprints when things fall his way. I give Nicholls enough criticism when he doesn't ride too well but he got it spot on here. Great ride, great horse and a great price (was never a 7/1 shot). One bet, one winner and no complaints for once! +21.00pts on a very, very good day. July is rolling along nicely as I'm +33.33pts for the month and showing a ROI of 68%. It's a pity all of this will come to a crashing end once the NH season starts again! 7:45 Hamilton - Mister Hughie - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower) There's a few other races to go through yet but I'm going to kick things off with the John Smith's Scottish Stewards' Cup. This Class 2, 6f Handicap is quite competitive and it'll be hard to land on the winner. In the past, it has paid dividends to side with those who don't carry the burden of much weight on their backs. Regardless of that, I'm doing the opposite here by siding with my old friend, Mister Hughie. This talented 4 year old looks to face a tough task in a bit to defy a mark of 100 and a racing weight of 9st 10lbs. However, I'm of the opinion that he's up to Group level if racing on a stiff track, so it'd be silly not to back him in a handicap at a stiff track. 16/1 vastly overstates his chances and if he is let rip, there's a fair chance he'll be flying late in a bid to gain career success number 6 at the 27th attempt. There's no doubting that Mister Hughie has class and despite looking badly out of form during 2011, he ran much better last time out in a Listed contest over the flying 5 furlongs at York. A track like that really suits the speedy types and he just can't warm up in time. It was very encouraging though, as the recent Tim Easterby recruit was flying at the death and finished in 6th place, just 3¼ lengths behind the winner. The losing distance sounds like a lot in a 5f sprint but this was the first time he had run a creditable race over a speedy 5f since finishing an unlucky-in-running 1 length 4th to Borderlescott in the King George at Goodwood last year. That's a Group 2 contest and adds further proof that this horse can be a potent force when things fall his way. The effort can be marked up significantly too, as the Goodwood track just isn't for him. Mister Hughie showed next to nothing in his first 3 outings since leaving Mick Channon to join Tim Easterby's yard. The only form of worth since joining this yard is his run last time out and I feel it's more than enough to be relatively confident here. He's warming to the task nicely and the return to a stiff 6f could be a smart move. He's equally effective when running over a stiff 5f, as seen when beating Prohibit in impressive fashion last year in a Listed contest at Beverley. However, he'll need plenty of time to peg back the leaders at a place like Hamilton and I feel this trip, at this track, is ideal. The ground will be no issue as he likes it fast and he also landed a 6f Handicap off a 5lb lower mark at the stiff Newmarket track last year. Everything is pointing towards a big run here and Tim Easterby is making a 400 mile round trip to run just one horse, so hopefully he means business. He boasts a fine course record having had 16% of his runners enter the winners enclosure. From his last 6 runners here, 3 have won and a further 2 have finished second. It has obviously been a happy hunting ground for the yard and although Mister Hughie disappointed in a 3 runner affair on his only C&D run (needs cover, couldn't get it), he's bound to love the place as the fast pace and mid-race cover that he needs is virtually assured. His stiff track form is brilliant too and hopefully he'll make it even better here. Strong handling is a must for him and Daniel Thudhope is the man in the driving seat today. He has impressed me on numerous occasions this year and should prove to be an ideal partner for this quirky animal. The pair are likely to be out towards the rear of the field struggling to go the pace, but once the horse finds his stride, they're sure to be powering home in the dying stages. He likes a long, testing run-in here and that's what he'll get on this straight track. If he's trying, I fail to see how he can't get involved and medium each-way stakes are the order of the day. Of the rest, previous selection Colonel Mak should be a contender in an attempt to make it 3 from 3 at the course. I just get the feeling that a bit of cut would do him no harm and the fact that he hasn't shown too much of his usual zip of late is quite disappointing. He's worthy of a stake saver though and 12/1 is too big. Regardless, Mister Hughie is the main selection and one I expect to see run a big race. He's got loads of talent and still holds a Group 3 entry for next month, so connections must expect a handicap to be within his grasp. 16/1 here is about twice the price that I feel he should be. Worries are whether he's fully tuned up for this and if he's able to lug that weight to victory. I'll take my chances though and hopefully he'll go well. 4 places are also being paid as it stands.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+156pts) I'll put it this way, it's not wise to follow me at SP. The majority of them are steamers and if you miss the prices significantly, don't bother. I'm +156pts to available prices and only +25pts to SP. The prices are generally there until the middle of the day anyways. I rarely bother going to sleep at night so it's the best time for me to post them and get on. That won't be changing any time soon.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+156pts) No problem mate. I'd say 9am would be grand, although Mister Hughie was coming in from 8am this morning and that's when all the traffic started hitting my blog. 9am should be okay though. :hope Cheers D, things are moving along nicely anyways. I'm due a bad run though, so be wary. :cry

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+156pts) 2:20 Newbury - Markab - 2pts @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) 10 runners go to post for this 6 furlong, Group 3 contest and Henry Candy's 8 year old, Markab, is fancied to bounce back to form. On the face of it, he has been disappointing on both of his outings this year but I believe they're easily excused and a return to anything remotely near the form of when he won the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last year would see him win this. The main worry is potential rain getting into the ground and ruining his chances, as good-to-firm ground brings out the best in him. I still feel he's a class above these rivals and it's a risk worth taking, although I'm playing smaller stakes than I usually would on a horse that I think should land the spoils. The ground is just too much of a worry to go in any bigger. Regardless of that, Markab is still worth siding with. He should be freshened up sufficiently on the back of an 8 week break since putting in a pair of poor performances. The first of those was in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes and he was expected to be in need of the run. Also, the 5lb Group 1 penalty didn't help him and all in all, it was a fairly satisfactory seasonal debut for a horse in need of a pipe-opener. Connections decided to drop him back in trip to tackle the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock just 10 days later and given the fact that he has never won over the minimum trip, it was never going to suit. He also had to contend with a 7lb penalty for that race and it was a much tougher race than what he faces today. With the return to 6f combined with the return to Group 3 company, minus a penalty, Markab could potentially win this easily. I don't think there's a whole lot to beat here and only a few can be given realistic chances of getting involved. If the ground held up and it was genuinely fast, this would be max bet territory. Overall, Markab has only had 2 runs in Group races over 6f when the ground has been fast. Both of those runs ended in impressive victories for this animal. He's 8 years old and may be expected to be on the downgrade, but considering he hadn't even won a Group race until last year, he may be capable of winning another couple. He's got plenty of speed and a good attitude, so he's always worthy of respect at this level, regardless of his recent form. Again, the ground is the only thing that could scupper his chances. Of the rest, Deacon Blues is on the upgrade and worthy of respect. However, 3/1 about a horse who won a handicap off 98 last time out just isn't appealing. He's entitled to progress yet again and it was a hot-handicap, but that's not a fair price in my opinion. There's not a whole pile between top-level handicap sprinters and low-level Group sprinters, but previous to that win, he was rated 20lbs below my selection and is still rated 11lbs inferior. I'd rather oppose, as I think he's vulnerable here. Pastoral Player is talented and worth his place in this field, but ultimately, I don't think he's as good as Markab, yet he's a shorter price. A couple of others could have cases made for them but I'll play small win stakes on Henry Candy's charge. At his best, in his conditions, he'd rout this field and although he disappointed when favourite in this contest last year, he could make it second time lucky. 11/2 is a cracking price about a horse that I think should be favourite and the ground is the only thing that will cause him to lose. If it lashes down, Regal Parade is the one to be on.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+156pts) 4:05 Newbury - Dux Scholar - 4pts @ 9/2 (PaddyPower) I won't make millions backing 9/2 shots but I think there's a very strong case to be made for Dux Scholar. This lightly-raced Michael Stoute trained 3 year old was a very useful juvenile and should of managed to pick up a couple of Group 3 races. He was produced too early in the first and hung away his chances in the second before getting nabbed on the line. However, it's clear that he's very, very useful and should take all of the beating here. Connections obviously think a lot of him and he still holds an entry in the Group 1 Celebration Mile at Goodwood next month. If he's to go there with any hope at all, victory will have achieved here in an impressive manner. Although this is over 2f further and it's the first time that he'll race past a mile. Dux Scholar has plenty of speed, more than enough for a mile, but this step up in trip does look interesting. He has always shaped as if he'd stay further and breeding suggests that he'll get plenty of stamina from his dam's side. This is a relatively easy, galloping track and he ran a cracker on his final juvenile start over 7f at this course. That run was in one of the previously mentioned Group 3 outings and Stoute's charge was only caught in the final strides of the contest. That trip isn't exactly ideal either and at least we know he'll enjoy it around here again. Dux Scholar looked as if he'd need an outing when he lined up in a Listed race at Windsor on reappearance this year. However, he ran a cracking race to finish a ¼ length 3rd to Nationalism, just losing out in a photo. He was receiving weight all round there and he probably was entitled to finish close anyways. They went a good clip in that race and the pace wasn't giving way, so to see him sprout wings from the rear of the field and close to within the smallest of margins was very encouraging. He showed a great attitude in the process and there's sure to be more to come from this talented 3 year old. With race fitness being improved and a step up in trip being an interesting move, I think he should take all of the beating here. He's still capable of mixing it in Group races and although there's some useful types lining up too, I think he's the best of the lot. Dux Scholar is also in receipt of 10lbs from the older colts and at the weights, he's expected to have a say in things. I think it's time to take on the older horses with the classic generation and Michael Stoute's runner bids to give him another win in the race. He last won it with a 3 year old in 2006 and I'm hopeful that it'll be a similar result here. There's nothing in the field to fear and the French colt, who I know nothing about, is the only one I'd really fear. He hasn't run for a long time though and may be vulnerable too. Overall, Dux Scholar shaped so well last time out that I think he's going to run another cracking race. The trip should suit, any ground will suit and the opposition shouldn't be too much of a concern. 9/2 is a great price and I'll play borderline maximum stakes on him landing the spoils.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+170pts) Another good day at the office despite Markab finding the ground all too much. He ran a cracking race to finish second and on faster going, he's still going to be a force to be reckoned with. There's not a whole pile of strength in depth in the sprinting division and when getting his conditions, there's another Group race in this fellow. Today was a much better effort compared to what he showed on his opening couple of starts this year and he only found an improving 4 year old to be that bit better. The ground favoured Deacon Blues and on a quicker surface, I'd fancy Henry Candy's veteran to overturn that form with relative ease. Good effort today, just not good enough to win. My borderline max-bet, Dux Scholar, showed his class today with a very taking victory in what was a more than useful Listed contest. The extra yardage proved to be no barrier to this talented and progressive 3 year old as he took it in his stride. Ryan Moore settled him towards the rear of the field and switched him to the other side with about half a mile to go. He caught the field napping when coming with a run to take up proceedings with a couple to go and the turn of foot he showed to scoot clear was impressive. A couple came out of the pack to chase him home and cut down the deficit but he ran out a most convincing winner. Group races await this fellow and I think he'll have a lot more to come yet. +16.20pts from a 4pt bet at 9/2, including a 10p R4 for some non-runners. +14.20pts on yet another good day and from my last 5 selections, 3 have won and 2 have finished second. The summer months ain't half-bad! Stat Attack - Overall Stats - Bank - 270.70pts (+170.70pts) Bets - 160 Wins - 19 Placed - 36 Win SR - 11.8% Staked - 430.00pts Returned - 600.70pts ROI - +39.70% *Placed bets don't include the winners. July Stats - Profit - +45.53pts Bets - 23 Wins - 4 Placed - 5 Win SR - 17% Staked - 55.00pts Returned - 100.53pts ROI - +82.8% *Placed bets don't include the winners. As it stands, July is currently on target to be even better than June (ROI is already bigger) and hopefully it will be. Things are going well and long may it continue. Although a crushing end is due any time soon!

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Accurate Dart Throwing (+170pts) Just dropped in to say a little thanks for yesterday. I fancied Dux Scholar but wasn't going to back it but decided to go for it when I seen you had tipped it up. :ok

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