Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Fancied her as well today. Well done :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Cheers fine sir. :beer

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Artistic Jewel finally got the chance to show her best and duly obliged at Newmarket with a comfortable 3½ length victory. She was always travelling well alongside the leaders and picked up wonderfully when finding her stride. The stiff 6f played into her hands, even though she didn't handle the dip too well, and she won in the style of a Group performer. I'd say she will be exactly that if she comes back as good at 3 and even a step up to 7 furlongs wouldn't go astray on an easier track. She just needs time to hit top gear and she got that yesterday, thankfully. Great performance, even though it wasn't the best Listed contest you'd ever see. Phidippides was cruising along when he departed 6 out at Wetherby yesterday and it's just a pity that his jumping couldn't hold up, as I'm quite sure he'd of troubled the winner if it had. Connections have a brilliant horse on their hands and he'll be picking up a nice prize if they can sort out his jumping. Keeping him to flat, galloping tracks with easier fences looks the way to go and I'll be keeping an eye out on him. He's exceptionally well-handicapped when everything comes together and it will eventually. +10.00pts on a very good day. This has actually turned out to be a cracking month. 3:15 Newmarket - Afkar - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 4 places) There's a fair chance I'm throwing away a few bills here but Afkar looks worthy of support at a fancy price in this Class 3, 1 mile handicap. Clive Brittain's well-bred colt is yet to achieve victory in 5 attempts but apart from running below form last time out, he has proved to be admirably consistent in maiden company. His first 3 careers starts, including one run as a juvenile, resulted in second placed finishes over 6, 7 & 8f - all coming in fairly useful races that have received boosts to the form since. The other run in that sequence of decent performances - Afkar's penultimate outing (first run in a handicap; 3lbs lower today) - came over a mile at Yarmouth and although he finished 7th of 9, he was just beaten by 4 lengths in a race where he dictated a slow gallop before trying to quicken from the front - something which I don't believe suited him at all. Although he was fairly strong in the market, there's a fair chance that he needed the run on the back of a 4+ month lay-off and I'd probably mark up the efforts a bit. He's certainly capable of a lot better when on song. He just can't quicken fast enough to win a race won like that. Last time out, Afkar lined up in a competitive conditions race at Doncaster this day last week but he was quite wrong at the weights with the majority of the field and the return to 7f wasn't in his favour (nor was the track). He was under pressure a fair way from home and didn't give any sort of running for the first time in his career, so I'm more than happy to view that performance as being an untrue reflection of his ability - although it is the basis for his price so I suppose it's no bad thing. The return to a mile is sure to be a plus today and this track holds no issues, as Afkar ran a head-second to a decent type in a maiden here in April. He was never stronger than at the finish over 7f that day and I'm sure he'll be capable of improving on that over today's trip. Whether or not he's capable of defying a mark of 82 against this sort of opposition has to be a massive worry but Brittain now reaches for blinkers and they could help him find more improvement if they don't light him up too much. He's hardly a winner-in-waiting at this level but he's talented, a fine looker, unexposed, suited to conditions and overpriced at current odds of 50/1. I'll have a tiny each-way bet in the hope that he can run well and nab a place.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 5:00 Newmarket - Sunrise Safari - 1.50pts e/w @ 22/1 (VC - 4 places) Finding the winner of this highly competitive 22-runner contest isn't one bit easy and an unexposed, once-raced John Gosden colt currently heads the market at 9/2. He's definitely worth taking on in a race of this nature and Sunrise Safari looks to be a lively outsider if he can put his best foot forward. It's a year and a bit since Richard Fahey's 8-year-old last tasted victory (in a claimer) but he has put in plenty of performances this year to suggest that he's no forlorn hope and I expect a good showing here if all is well. Sunrise Safari now drops to a career-low mark of 75 for the first time in his 61-race career (rated 100 at peak) and I think he's very dangerously handicapped in a contest like this - as it's clear he retains plenty of ability despite his age. Fahey's charge is actually very unexposed at this 7f trip having only lined up over it on 6 occasions. His form figures are as very consistent at this trip and if he was mine I'd be keeping him to it nowadays. Sunrise Safari has actually only raced once over a stiff 7f and on that occasion he was a running-on 2nd of 9 at Beverley in June, albeit in a less competitive race. He will obviously have to step up on that here but it's not beyond the realms of possibility at all and with conditions to suit being combined with a solid gallop to run after (which he needs), a big run could be on the cards for this talented veteran. The main basis for his price is a below-form effort in a claimer last time out but that was at the speedy Windsor track over 6f and that's not a suitable test for him now - so you can overlook it. It was also run to favour those on the pace, so he never really had a chance despite staying on strongly to be nearest at the finish. A replication of Sunrise Safari's run when he was 3rd of 18 at York three starts ago would see him in with a very big chance at a more suitable track and he's being exceptionally underrated in the market. That was also off a 3lbs higher mark and the last time Lee Topliss was on board, so to see the pair reunited is a plus in my book. Topliss is an exceptional talent (huge value for the claim) and takes off a further 3lbs to leave Sunrise Safari running off a mark of 72 - bottom weight in this contest. He's potentially thrown in if producing his best here today but he is a moody type and whether he'll run to his best has to be considered a massive doubt. 22/1 is a very big price though and I'll happily play small/medium each-way stakes in the hope that he can. It's a very competitive race but he's more than up to having a say in it if all goes well and fingers crossed that it will.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) National Hunt Selections: 3:00 Ascot - Kumbeshwar - 1pt @ 7/1 (WillHill, General) Kumbeshwar was an exceptionally talented juvenile hurdler last season and was unlucky to find one too good on 3 occasions in Graded races, including twice in Grade 1's. However, Alan King's charge is taken to go one better here and gain his first success since his opening race in this code, achieved in February of this year. The track and ground should suit perfectly whilst his handicap mark of 145 shouldn't prove insurmountable if readied to go well first time up. It's an extremely competitive contest in which many can be given live chances but this fellow is bound to run a big race if at the top of his game and 7/1 looks like a decent price about him. King has reported that he has strengthened up very well on the back of a summer break and this looks like a winnable opportunity for a horse who should go on to bigger and better things later in the season. 3:20 Wetherby - Diamond Harry - 3pts @ 3/1 (Bet365, VC) Backing horses first time out after an injury is risky but the vibes about Diamond Harry are quite positive and if he returns here like the horse who won the Hennessy Gold Cup first time up at Newbury last year, he's bound to run a massive race. The key to this horse seems to be flat, galloping tracks as 2 of his only 3 defeats have come at Cheltenham (once over hurdles, once over fences; both G1's) with the other being at the hands of the brilliant Big Buck's on heavy ground on the hurdle course at Newbury (only defeat in 6 outings at that track). His other 10 runs have ended in victory and it's clear as day that this fellow could be of the highest class when he's on song (was as short as 7/1 when injury rules him out of the Cheltenham Gold Cup). Wetherby isn't too unlike Newbury and this is the sort of place where Nick Williams' 8-year-old will be able to give his best. Quite how good his best is going to be after a ligament injury is up for debate but with plenty of positive reports to be found, he's likely to be spot on for this G2 challenge. The lay-off shouldn't be a problem as the horse is unbeaten first time up and the yards horses seem to be going quite well generally. Their charge should really take all of the beating if he's in tip-top conditions today and 3/1 looks like a backable price for such a high-class animal. I'll play medium win stakes on him and hopefully he'll go well. 3:40 Ascot - Bideford Legend - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365, WillHill) Bideford Legend has an 8lb swing in the weights with Muirhead for a 1¾ length beating (winner value for more) in the Munster National at Limerick a few weeks ago and with the weight differential being combined with the different ground/track, that form can be turned around here. Charles Byrnes' charge is clearly in fine fettle of late and progressing at a rapid rate of knots and there's no reason to expect that to stop here. He jumps well, travels like a dream and stays well, so he's a likely type to continue on moving up the ranks for another little while yet when getting things to suit. Today he's got the brilliant Barry Geraghty on board for the first time and he has an exceptional record at this track in the past 5 years with 22 of his 54 rides ending up in the winners enclosure. There's obviously no better man for the job here and Geraghty doesn't ride too often for the yard but still boasts fine figures with 4 wins from 9 rides since 2010. It'll be a very tough race to win but Byrnes' 7-year-old is very talented and on an upward curve, so he's worth taking a chance on at 8/1. Small win stakes again, as I don't usually pick winners in these types of races!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) No luck, been a while since I've picked a Saturday winner. Afkar ended up getting beat by a long way but he travelled nicely enough before dropping out and he's definitely a better horse than the result suggests. Not much else to say. Sunrise Safari had his chance (traded at 9/2 in the run) but he weakened out of contention in the closing stages and is another to rate better than the bare result. He was a bit keen early on as well, which didn't help. Can't complain though, he gave it a good shot - just not good enough on the day. Kumbeshwar set out to make the running but he was stalked all the way and couldn't shake the field off at any stage. He was another to drop out when headed (wasn't given a hard time). The Greatwood Hurdle is said to be the aim now and given how well he ran off top-weight in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham last season, he'll be one to consider for sure. He's currently available at 16/1 and that doesn't look too bad, although I'll wait for a while because all of my ante-post bets end up going wrong! Diamond Harry was a non-runner whilst Bideford Legend unfortunately had a fatal fall when still in contention and going relatively well. Such a pity for connections and my National Hunt jinx struck hard again. -6.00pts on the day. 3:35 Huntingdon - Go Amwell - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365) John Jenkins' 8-year-old Go Amwell isn't an easy one to win with but if Robert Thornton (on board for the first time) can get a good tune out of him, he's potentially very well-treated off 2lbs lower than his last win. That was achieved over this speedy C&D last season when scoring comfortably in a similar contest. Things obviously haven't went too well since but he has dropped in the ratings as a result and now looks dangerously handicapped if putting it all in. His last run was nearly 3 weeks ago over this C&D and although he was beaten a long way in the end, it doesn't tell the whole story. Under Timmy Murphy (who gets on well with the horse), Go Amwell was well out the back throughout the race and looking disinterested before moving into a position to challenge a few hurdles from home. His effort flattened out somewhat in the straight and he had nothing left to give but that's fairly understandable given how the race panned for him (it also seemed very tough for the hold-up horses to get involved). If Thornton could just get him interested in the early stages then I'm sure his often strong-travelling ways will lead to him having some sort of chance of getting involved at the business end. Obviously the risk of similar goings on occurring are relatively large as he's a tricky horse but 14/1 looks like a nice price about him and I'll take a small chance. If Go Amwell can put it all in, he's sure to get involved with conditions to suit perfectly. If he's acting up and detached out the back early, it'll be a point wasted. No harm though, it's worth the risk in a race of this nature.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 2:40 Carlisle - Humbie - 2pts @ 6/1 (Boyles, VC) The way in which Humbie jumped and travelled when winning over C&D on his first outing of the season (just over 3 weeks ago) suggests that he's a horse with more to come and a 7lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him here. It'll take another career best effort for this lightly-raced 7-year-old to win but he's got more than enough about him to improve past his current rating of 122 over this sort of trip. He should get further too without much problem, especially on the easier tracks. The race Humbie won was a lot weaker than today's contest but that was his first attempt on a right-handed track and it seemed to being out a lot of improvement with regards to his jumping - something which had let him down on plenty of occasions last season. If he's in the same vein of form he should prove to be a very lively contender with conditions being to suit. He also took quite a keen hold last time out and today's race should be run at a better gallop, which will help if he's able to jump as well on the back of a stronger pace. His trainer, Pauline Robson, has an exceptional strike-rate at Carlisle with 5 of her 19 runners landing the spoils and she seems to have her yard in good order early in the season. From just 4 runners, 2 have won and another has placed, which is encouraging despite the small sample. Timmy Murphy being on board again is a plus as he gets on well with the horse having guided him to both of his chasing wins to date and he also rides the track well. Humbie faces a tough task to follow up on his recent win but he's going the right way and worth having a small/medium bet on here. If his jumping holds up again (it should do given how easy the Carlisle fences are), he'll be in the frame at least.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Quite unlucky not to pick up a winner yesterday with Humbie looking to have a massive chance two out (hit 1.40 in-running). However, he jumped left at that fence and then lugged to his right on the run down to the final flight. He was still upsides the eventual winner at that stage but having got in a bit low at the last, his jockey seemed to lose an iron or get unbalanced and all was lost. He was a tired horse in the end and may just prefer better ground, even though it wasn't too testing at all. Disappointing finish but he ran a cracker. Go Amwell ran the race I was hoping he wouldn't, as he stayed out the back for a long time and had to use up a lot of energy just to get into contention. He travelled well in the main but had nothing left when latching onto the leading ground and he faded out of the race after. Given how unreliable he is, it may be best to leave him alone from now on. He's talented, but rarely gives his best. -3.00pts on the day. 2:40 Kempton - Beyond - 2pts @ 5/2 (Boylesports) The step up to 2m 5f at a track like this could bring out untold improvement for Beyond on his hurdling debut for the David Pipe yard. This well-bred 4-year-old comes here fit and ready to go on the back of a sound showing in the Cesarewitch on the flat and off a mark of 121, he looks very well-treated if finding the improvement that is sure to be in his locker over this sort of trip. He was useful in a few runs on the flat for Jeremy Noseda and won twice in this code for Evan Williams last year before having his final run in the Grade 3 Fred Winter at Cheltenham. He ran a modest race on that occasion but just doesn't have the pace for the 2m trip. The sound surface and flat, fast track should play into his strengths and with David Pipe working his magic, this horse looks more than capable of winning a race like this. I have my reservations about some of the opposition and probably should play relatively large stakes given how overpriced I feel the horse is but I'll take the safe route and have a small/medium win bet. Hopefully he'll go well and win.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 4:20 Kempton - Serious Choice - 1pt @ 9/2 (VC, WillHill) Serious Choice shaped on recent starts as if he was capable of landing a race like this and with the very capable Matt Griffiths taking off 3lbs in this conditional jockeys race, he looks worthy of support at 9/2. Philip Hobbs' 6-year-old hasn't won since scoring impressively off a 1lb lower mark at Newton Abbot in April of 2010 but he has only lined out over jumps on two occasions since and still remains lightly-raced in this code with just 7 runs under his belt. The ground and track should be no issue and the only worry I'd have is whether he's quick enough for the bare 2 miles. If he is, he's sure to go well for an in-form stable as the opposition aren't really up to much and a couple of the main rivals have gone up the weights despite not winning last time out. Hobbs' charge is down 2lbs for running a decent race a few weeks ago and he looks like the one to side with here. 9/2 is a nice enough price about him in a race of this nature and I'll have a small win bet.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Final bet and my first AW selection. The majority of my winter bets will be coming in this code once it hits full stride. Should be interesting trying to spot potential plots! Statistics will be kept separately for both . 5:00 Wolverhampton - Munsarim - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) Munsarim makes his all-weather debut in this race but if he takes to the surface, there's no reason why he can't go well in this fairly modest contest. Keith Dalgleish's 4-year-old is ultra-reliant on getting a properly fast surface and as a result of disappointing last thrice on ground & tracks that may just not have suited, he's quite attractively handicapped off a mark just 1lb higher than his last turf win. That was a comfortable win on fast ground at Ayr in July and shows just how competitive he can get when things fall into place for him. Whether they will in this race is another thing but 20/1 is a very large price about him. Joe Fanning hops back on board for the first time since guiding the horse to a win over 1m 2f at Newcastle and he's 1 from 1 when taking the reins on this animal. The yard are in cracking form of late, so that's even more encouragement and they're 14 from 42 (30% strike-rate) when Fanning is on board. Overall, 20/1 is just too big for this animal and a small each-way stake will do no harm.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Back with reasoning soon. Don't want to miss the price.. 3:50 Exeter - Rockabilly - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Beyond and Serious Choice were both disappointing at Kempton. The former just isn't going to be as good as I thought he could be, whilst the latter was severely hindered by the main pace influence becoming a non-runner earlier in the day. It's probably safe to say that I won't be backing either of them again. Over at Wolverhampton, Munsarim was strongly supported into 8/1 (from 20's early on) and duly ran a big race to finish in 3rd place. Had a few things went his way, he would of won that race as he was caught out wide, positioned too far back and looked uncomfortable mid-race due to the kickback. It was a very good run from him though and ensured a small profit on the day. Can't complain. +1.00pts on the day. 3:50 Exeter - Rockabilly - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles) The Twiston-Davies team can do no wrong at the moment and anything they're sending out deserves a lot of respect. In the past fortnight, 9 of their 36 runners have won with a further 7 coming home in second. In fact their last 4 runners have all won and they make a near 300 mile round trip for just a couple of runners at Exeter today. Rockabilly looks to be their liveliest chance if he can put it all in on his chasing debut and he looks just the type to excel in this code. He's so unexposed having run on just 4 occasions over hurdles and his only win came over C&D. I backed him when he ran out a 1 length winner off 101 in a weak hurdle (at 14/1; on h'cap debut) but he lines out today off just 105 and that's potentially lenient if he improves for the switch to chasing as expected. In time, he'll get more than this 3m trip but for now it should be suitable (especially at this track) and he's an interesting contender at this level. Smallish win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) All-Weather Selections: 2:30 Kempton - Alis Aquilae - 1pt @ 13/2 (Betfred, PaddyPower) Tim Etherington hasn't had a winner in a long time but Alis Aquilae could change that here if getting some luck over the flying 5 furlongs at Kempton. He's a 5-year-old now but he's completely unexposed having only lined up to race on 9 occasions and just once on the polytrack surface. The general train of thought is that he's best when fresh and his form suggests that - so to see him come here on the back of a 2 month lay-off is a plus. It's probable that he's had some problems but he's potentially very useful at lower grades based on how he can travel and today's handicap rating of 65 looks very manageable, especially now that he drops back to C6 level for the first time. His only all-weather run came at this track over a furlong further and he was very, very unlucky in-running. It's a run that pretty much confirms he handles the ground and he's now 10lbs lower than that mark just over a year later. If he gets a solid pace to run at and some luck in-running from his inside draw, he should go well and get involved.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 5:00 Kempton - Musashi - 1pt @ 14/1 (PaddyPower, WillHill) Musashi doesn't win too often but he's useful on his day and the removal of blinkers could well be a good thing, as they seem to be lighting him up too much. His last win came off a 2lb higher mark in a slightly better contest at this course over 1m 2f. Today's 1m 4f trip shouldn't be an issue if he can break away on terms (often slowly away) and settle, which isn't always a given with such a tricky horse. However, if things just worked in his favour then he should prove to be a very lively candidate in such a modest contest. Ian Mongan being on board is another plus, as he's the only jockey to have managed to guide this fellow to victory and he also rides the course exceptionally well. The Laura Mongan yard are prone to the odd big-priced winner around here and hopefully they can add another in this race. Overall, he's a massively risky proposition but 14/1 is a nice price about this well-handicapped animal and small win stakes will do no harm.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) No joy. Rockabilly was massively well-supported in the betting, eventually going off as a 3/1 shot in a very competitive contest. However, having taken a nice position in behind the leaders at the start, he smashed into the first fence and was lucky to continue. It was an uphill battle after that, as he dropped out to the back after the mistake and the rest of his jumping wasn't great at all. He stayed on to get 3rd place but never had a chance of winning. His lack of speed is always going to hinder him but if he can improve in the jumping department, he'll be winning a similar contest before too long. Alis Aquilae was the unlucky one of the day, as he got ran down very late in his 6f race. He had to settle for 2nd place in the end but ran a cracker and things may well have went better if he got a handier sit early on. Can't complain though, he ran a very good race. Musashi actually settled quite well for a change and ran a decent race but never had a chance of getting involved from so far back in the field. He also couldn't get a run a few furlongs out and may have finished closer but for that. He's one to keep a close eye on over the season and I'll definitely be on again. -4.00pts on the day. 5:40 Kempton - Cut The Cackle - 3pts @ 4/1 (Bet365, Boyles) It's usually not a great sign when the best bet one can find is in a Class 6 sprint at Kempton but that's exactly the case here. Richard Guest didn't have his yard in great form for a few months but everything's going well for him again and he looks to have a lively chance of adding to the 5 winners (from 30 runners) that he's had in the past fortnight. Cut The Cackle is the horse in question and if this 5-year-old mare can put it all in, she's potentially thrown in here off a mark of 54. Her last career win came at this track (7f) in July of 2010 when she defied a mark of 70 in an Apprentice Handicap with relative ease. That was achieved when trained by Peter Winkworth and she left his yard after that. Her form took a dramatic turn for the worse over the next year but she showed up exceptionally well last time out (3 weeks ago) when racing off a 2lb lower mark over this C&D. That was just her fifth outing for Richard Guest and the way she was steadily staying on from the rear of the field adds plenty of cause for optimism here. I also don't think she was given a great ride on that occasion and to see the very talented Martin Harley take over in the saddle has to be seen as another plus, especially given how well he does when riding for this yard (8 wins from 37 rides; 22% strike-rate). They will go a good clip up front, which will suit, and this contest shouldn't take a whole lot of winning if Guest's charge is on form. 4/1 is a great price in my opinion and I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that she builds on that recent outing.

[Aidymac]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Cut "The" Cackle Jamesie! Best of luck! :rollin

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Cut The Cackle was a non-runner yesterday, which was probably a good thing based on how the gambled-on winner landed the spoils. I don't think Richard Guest's filly would of beaten that one (plus the race wouldn't of favoured her), so it was a bullet dodged in the end. Very short write-ups again. 1:40 Southwell - The Name Is Don - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, Boyles, VC) The Name Is Don doesn't come from a stable that does too well when it comes to getting winners but the step up in trip to 7 furlongs should help this juvenile and given his sires 18% strike-rate on the fibresand, he should appreciate the surface too. Off a mark of 59 in such a poor race, he could go well under the guidance of the excellent Adam Kirby and I'll have a small each-way bet on him doing the business. He'll either run a cracker or drop out and finish towards the rear of the field, hopefully it's the former. 2:10 Southwell - Powerful Presence - 3pts @ 10/3 (Boyles, VC, Ladbrokes) David O'Meara's Powerful Presence was a progressive sort when last seen on this surface (course form; 2-1-1-2) and continued that progression on turf when winning off a mark of 71 and coming 2nd off marks of 76 & 77. His last outing, just over a week ago, was a fine 2nd placed effort to a horse who has plenty of ability when conditions fall right for him and a repeat of that effort would see this one go very close to winning off his 2lb lower all-weather mark. It's a decent enough race for the grade but if O'Meara's charge puts it all in, he'll run a big race. 10/3 is hardly a wonderful price but he's worth taking a chance on with a medium win bet.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Yesterday, The Name Is Don lost his chance within the first hundred yards or so. He just couldn't get a nice position from what was a grand draw in stall 5 and ended up racing towards the rear, which isn't ideal over that C&D (plus he didn't like the kickback at all!). He also came into the straight widest of all in order to get a run but stuck to the task quite well and once connections decide to make more use of him at this track (as I was hoping they would in this contest), there'll be a race to be won over 7f. He's definitely one to keep an eye on and into the tracker he goes. Powerful Presence was very strong in the market, eventually going off as the 13/8 favourite but ultimately found one too good for the fifth time in his career. There's no excuses though, he ran a cracking race and just found an exceptionally game horse that little bit too good on the day. A small rise in the weights awaits and that'll be enough to put me off in future. He's one to keep an eye on if running a few modest races before coming back down the handicap, as I'm sure O'Meara wouldn't mind getting his money back! -5.00pts on the day. Annoying. Can't catch a break at the moment. Still keeping the write-ups short for a while. 4:30 Wolverhampton - Dream Catcher - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, Hills) A fairly open looking Apprentice Handicap here but Dream Catcher could be a lively one at a fancy price if he puts it all in. Having performed poorly on recent starts (had some excuses), he's now dropped back to an attractive looking handicap mark of 69, a full 6lbs lower than when winning a much better race for 3-year-old's earlier in the season. He has since switched yards to join up with David Pinder (left Dandy Nicholls having been claimed for £19,000) and although he only managed a single performance worthy of winning this race in 7 outings for the yard, that came the last time he ran over this C&D and it was off a 6lb higher mark too. A replication of that run would probably suffice and I'm pinning my hopes on the return to Wolverhampton doing the trick for a horse who is clearly much better than his current rating when on song. James Rodgers is on board and taking off a further 3lbs, so that's a plus as he's very useful and was the man on board for his only C&D run for this yard. 25/1 is a nice price and a small each-way bet will do no harm. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5:00 Wolverhampton - Grand Stitch - 2pts @ 8/1 (Betfred, StanJames) There's plenty of potential pace on here in this 5f contest but if Grand Stitch is allowed to blast off from his good draw, he should prove to be very hard to catch. Declan Carroll's 5-year-old gelding hasn't managed to win this year at all but he shaped quite well when running on the wrong side at Nottingham in a big-field sprint last time out and it was this time last year when he started to come to hand, so hopefully that's the case again today. He notched up successive victories in October 2010 off mark of 58 & 65, both quite easily. Today, he races off a mark of 58 and as previously shown, it's one he can most certainly work with. In a race of this nature, he looks sure to run his race if he's actually trying and with the yard going well (2 winners in past 2 days) and some money about for him this morning, I'm hopeful that he'll be going for it. Some other useful types line up and it's a risky bet overall but he's very capable and worthy of a small/medium win stake at 8/1. Hopefully he'll go well, and preferably win! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Possibly more to come.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Final bet. 6:10 Wolverhampton - Chookie Avon - 2pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, VC) I rarely ever back a horse who won last time out but Chookie Avon looks more than capable of following up and seems to be overpriced, which isn't always the case with one who got their head in-front last time out. Keith Dalgleish's 4-year-old gelding came with a late thrust to get up in the closing stages of a Class 5 contest over C&D just under a week ago and although he has a 6lb penalty to contend with, he takes a drop back in grade which is sure to help his chances of notching up the double. His current rating of 68 is as high as he has ever been but he is unexposed on the all-weather having only lined out on 6 occasions, all of which came at this track and just 3 were over his optimum trip of 7 furlongs. The main risk is whether or not he will get his desired strong pace to run after (as he did last time out) but he's well-positioned in stall 2 and should be favoured regardless of how it all pans out. The excellent and in-form Joe Fanning being on board is yet another plus and the yard are in similarly good form over the past while. There's no obvious reason why this fellow won't run a good race and 5/1 looks to be a price worthy of taking a chance on.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) Frustrating day. Dream Catcher was fairly strong in the market and eventually went off at 11/1 (backed at 25's). However, he ran a very poor race and dropped out of contention quite tamely. I'm still sure that there's a race to be won with him if he's kept to the all-weather over the winter but after a hectic campaign, he's surely due a break. Grand Stitch was weak in the market before the off and drifted out to a starting price of 11/1. I had worried that I was on a non-trier at that stage but he was surely trying and it's just a pity that he got pestered for the lead early on, as it forced him to go too quick for his own good. He still managed to build up a nice lead as they turned for home and was a couple of lengths clear inside the final furlong (went as low as 1.03 in-running) but then he hit a brick wall, understandable given his early exertions, and ended up being passed by a couple of hold-up horses close home. Solid run though and I can't complain at all. Chookie Avon posted another solid effort, eventually coming home in 3rd place. He just hit his stride that bit too late in the home straight and couldn't get his head in front at any stage. In the end, he was only beaten a nose and a neck, so it was a very good effort under his 6lb penalty. He's another one to keep an eye on but he's stood a lot of racing in recent months and a break is due any time soon one would imagine. -6.00pts on the day. It's not nice to have losing days but it's good to find horses to run well for you and hopefully a bit of luck will turn the places into wins. From 8 selections on the all-weather so far this winter, 5 have placed. Unfortunately, none have won but fingers crossed that it'll all change around soon. Final bets for the turf flat season. A winner would be nice. If I have any bets for the National Hunt, I'll post them in the morning. Stats et all will be updated in the evening. 2:00 Doncaster - Entitled - 2pts @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) No fewer than 22 runners are set to line up for this 7f contest and the lightly-raced Entitled looks the most interesting now that she'll be encountering softer ground for the first time in her 9-race career. Sir Michael Stoute's 4-year-old filly is bred to be the type to excel on this ground (full sister won Group 1 races on soft and good-to-soft over a mile) and if she gets away with the 7f trip, which is probably a furlong further than her optimum, a big run can be expected despite having a career-high mark of 89 to contend with. Entitled is up a further 3lbs for finishing a solid 2nd on very fast ground at Newbury last time out in a lesser contest but given how unexposed she is, there's no reason to expect this rating is the ceiling of her ability (she's also the type to improve with racing and age). On that occasion, she travelled quite sweetly towards the rear of the field before showing a nice turn of foot to hit the front just inside the final furlong but she was eventually run down by the ultra-consistent and progressive Valencha (10/1 here). I'm very hopeful that Soute's filly can overturn that form on 1lb better terms and the softer ground should prove to be more favourable to her too, as Hughie Morrison's filly seems to give her best on better going, a view held by her trainer. This is the first time Entitled will visit Doncaster but her best form is on flat, galloping tracks and there should be absolutely no worries in that regard. How she'll see out the 7f trip on softer ground is the main worry but then again, it could be a massive plus either. The 10/1 price-tag is worth taking a chance on, despite Stoute usually having under-priced horses in this type of contest. I don't think that's the case here at all and I'll play small/medium win stakes in the hope that she can get her head in-front again. There's also a fair chance that Entitled will come on for the recent run, as it was her first in three months. David Probert takes the ride for the first time and he's a jockey I really rate. He has managed 2 wins from 3 rides for the yard (all this season) and hopefully he can add to that here. Another worry is the fact that doesn't ride the track very well at all (1-42) and his 25 rides in the past fortnight have all ended up as losers, although not too many were fancied. Regardless of it all, the horse is a talented filly who should be suited by conditions underfoot and looks in with a chance of running a big race. Richard Fahey's mud-loving Prime Exhibit (9/1) and Ed Walker's Axiom (12/1) are the only others I'd back and they may be worth having small bets on too. I'll stick with Stoute's charge to do the business in a race that should be run to suit.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 3:10 Doncaster - Pekan Star - 2pts @ 10/1 (Betfred, Hills, Ladbrokes) Another bet with plenty of risk involved, even more so than usual. Pekan Star has 22 rivals to overcome here and returns on the back of a 3 month lay-off having disappointed on his last couple of starts. However, with plenty of excuses to be found for the disappointments of Roger Varian's 4-year-old, he's a very lively contender in this ultra-competitive handicap off a mark of 93 - 2lbs lower than when sent off as the 3/1 favourite for the John Smith's Cup over 1m 2f at York. In that race, Pekan Star ended up getting beat by over 11 lengths to come home in 15th place but that doesn't tell the whole story, as he had moved nicely into a share of the lead a couple of furlongs from home before stopping very quickly. You'd think something went amiss with him that day but he wasn't thought of as being an easy going type at all and his headstrong nature may have taken control on that occasion. It certainly wasn't the performance of a horse previously thought to be a potential pattern performer after he scooted away with a 20-runner handicap off a mark of 85 on his only previous start that season (2 months earlier). Pekan Star then lined out in a Listed contest for which he was sent off as the 5/2 favourite but the race wasn't run to favour him at all and I'll happily put a line through that. He hasn't been seen since that race in August but in the meantime he's been gelded and that may just do the trick for this well-bred performer. The step up to 1m 4f for the first time is also something that should suit based on what he's shown to date and the Doncaster track will be right up his street, as a long home straight is always going to bring out the best in him. Pekan Star is said to be a horse who appreciates better ground but he may just get away with today's conditions if he proves to be as useful as was once thought and 10/1 looks like a nice price to me. The yard are also 5 from 7 at the track, so it's a happy hunting ground for them and Andrea Atzeni, who rides him for the first time, also does well here. There's plenty of the unknown element about backing this fellow in a race of this nature but he's talented and gelding him could help him reach his earlier promise. He's also very unexposed having only lined out on 5 occasions previous to this and there could be plenty more to come yet once the key to the door is found. Small/medium win stake for me again and fingers crossed that he'll run his race. Of the rest, Crackentorp is a very lively outsider and overpriced at 28/1, so he's worth having a small bet on too.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) First two, possibly more to come. National Hunt Selections: 1:30 Kelso - Safari Adventures - 1pt @ 8/1 (Boylesports) Safari Adventures comes here on the back of a disappointing effort in a Listed Handicap last time out but he was most certainly biting off more than he could chew at that level and the return to a lower grade, combined with visiting a tight track, should help to see him in a better light. Off a mark of 128, there's not a whole pile for Lucinda Russell's 9-year-old to work with but he's capable of going close of this mark and has previously finished 2nd off marks of 125, 126 & 128. He's an "all or nothing" sort of horse and he'll either run a cracker here or finish a long way behind, I'm hopeful that it'll be the former. Safari Adventures ran a shocker in this race last year but that was on the back of a horrible fall at Aintree and he didn't look like his usual self at all, so I wouldn't go marking down his suitability to the track just because of that. Kelso is the sort of place that he'll love and although he's likely to be pestered for the lead, he should make a bold bid from the front if all is well. The yard aren't in the best of form of late but this fellow should be warming to the task nicely on the back of 2 runs already this season and he's fancied to go well here. 8/1 is a decent price about him and I'll play a small win stake on him doing the business. Hopefully he will. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:05 Kelso - King Fontaine - 2pts @ 11/2 (Bet365, VC) I've been following the progress of King Fontaine for a while now and if it wasn't for his modest ability to jump fences, he'd have a much higher rating in that code. Malcolm Jefferson now decides to start his 8-year-old's 2011/12 season in a staying hurdle race (over 3m 3f) and he looks potentially well-treated off a mark that is 10lbs lower than his rating over fences. How forward he'll be on the back of a summer break is anyone's guess but he won first time out in '09 and '10, so there doesn't seem to be an issue with getting him readied to run well. It's a bit of a worry as to how King Fontaine will do now that he's back hurdling for the first time in nearly 2 years but he was a progressive type over the smaller obstacles before embarking on his chasing career and a mark of 127 may not be the ceiling of his ability. He actually won his last 2 starts in this code (both in novices' events over much shorter trips) and remains unexposed having lined out just 5 times as a hurdler. Given that he's a real stayer over fences, the 3m 3f trip will be right up his street and although the tight track probably isn't exactly what he's after, it shouldn't inconvenience too much. The yard are in good form with 6 winners from 31 runners since September and they do very well at the track, especially when Graham Lee rides (8-35). Overall, 11/2 looks like a nice price about this fellow in a race of this nature and he's worth taking a small/medium chance on.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) 2:25 Sandown - Songe - 2pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Quite an interesting contest here in which 9 are set to go to post. Songe looks to be the one to side with at the prices and if Charlie Longsdon's 7-year-old can put in a clear round, he's sure to have some sort of say in proceedings. Whether he will is another thing, as he's not the most reliable jumper at all and this was evident when he took quite a heavy fall on his seasonal reappearance at Huntingdon last time out. He was still going quite well at the time (2 out) under Noel Fehily and although the eventual winner was cruising along too, he would of given him a race if it wasn't for his customary sloppy jump. Songe now return to Sandown for the first time since he landed this race last year off today's mark and although there's a couple of runners in here that will make it a tougher task this time around, he will have a race run to suit (it wasn't last year) and has no problems with conditions. The way in which he can travel always gives him a chance of improving past this mark and with his yard having a cracking season so far, I'm sure they'll eventually find the key to him with regards to his jumping. Felix De Giles takes the reins for the first time and he has a great record for the yard (22% strike-rate, 40% ROI), so hopefully that'll be improved on here. He's also riding a lot of winners lately and confidence will surely be high. If he can get a good tune out of Songe then they've a good chance of landing this £7,500 pot and I'll play small/medium win stakes on that happening. It's a selection full of risk but one that could pay off with some luck. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:20 Wincanton - Meanus Dandy - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365, VC) Meanus Dandy landed this race impressively last year (first two well clear) when running in first-time blinkers off a 6lb lower mark (just 4lbs higher today if jockeys claim factored in) and although he didn't cut much ice on his following 3 outings, he's back down to a very workable mark if readied first time up. The brilliant Paul Nicholls trains this talented 8-year-old and he says the horse always goes well fresh and that he's in good order, so he's worth taking a chance on yet again (he owes me a lot of money!) in a race his owners' firm sponsors. A flat, galloping track with a trip around the 3 miles mark is said to be Meanus Dandy's optimum and if you take that literally when reading his form, he's quite an unexposed horse, even though he has only raced 10 times under rules anyway. There could still be a bit of improvement in him yet and given how well he won this race last year, I think there's every chance that he'll run a big race assuming they go quick enough up front, as he certainly doesn't want it to be a crawl. His jumping is solid in the main and he should be able to travel nicely on ground that suits, as he was all at sea on very quick ground at Sandown when last seen in April. David Prichard is the jockey on board Meanus Dandy today and he takes off 7lbs to leave the horse looking very nicely weighted off 10st 5lbs, but that's all I can say about him. His record suggests that, at this early stage in his career, he's a much better jockey over hurdles (6-40 vs 1-18) but I'll take a chance on him anyway and hopefully he can get a big race win under his belt on just his 70th ride. I also think it's (possibly) interesting that the jockey had a ride for Nicholls over fences at this course a couple of weeks ago (finished 4th) and that may have been to give him some experience of the track (which he had only ridden once) before this race - who knows! 10/1 looks to be a cracking price about this horse despite Nicholls seemingly having a more fancied runner and yet again, I'll play small/medium win stakes. Hopefully he'll go well and he really should if all is sound. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sunday, 6th of November Sunday selection which didn't show up at the time for some reason. Adding it to this post, even though it lost! 2:35 Ffos Las - Temple Lord - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365, General) Bar a few sketchy jumps, Temple Lord shaped well on his chasing debut over C&D last time out. Given that it was the first time Jonjo O'Neill's charge lined out to race in nearly 2 years, it's quite understandable that he would have needed the outing (he also pulled hard and wasn't given a hard time at all, despite being strong in the market). He's only a 5-year-old, so there's plenty left in the tank and if he's as good over fences as he was over hurdles as a youngster in France (three-time Listed winner), he could be very nicely handicapped off a mark of 127. That recent outing should take him on a lot and the ease in the ground today should also suit, so he looks to have plenty in his favour here. Bar the second favourite (who may be worth a saver at 5's), I don't think the opposition are overly well-handicapped and it may pay to side with the O'Neill/McCoy partnership. 7/2 isn't usually a price I'd be too keen on but this fellow is overpriced if he's actually trying to win the race, which is a big risk I suppose. Regardless, I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that this grey gelding gets back to winning ways.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+238pts) The above finished 2nd. Another who traded odds-on and lost. My 10th place from 21 selections on the AW/NH so far, none have won. The jinx is back. ------------------------------------------- Overall Bank (since April) - 305.78pts (+205.78pts) Final 2011 Flat Statistics Update - Profit - +235.78pts Bets - 281 Wins - 31 Placed - 58 Win SR - 11% Staked - 722.00pts Returned - 957.78pts ROI/Yield - +33% *Placed bets don't include the winners. September Stats - Profit - +14.45pts Bets - 56 Wins - 6 Placed - 14 Win SR - 10.7% Staked - 131.00pts Returned - 145.45pts ROI/Yield - +11% *Placed bets don't include the winners. October Stats - Profit - +20.00pts Bets - 29 Wins - 3 Placed - 3 Win SR - 10.3% Staked - 75.00pts Returned - 95.00pts ROI/Yield - +26.66% *Placed bets don't include the winners. List of winners - 28 October – Artistic Jewel – 2pts @ 11/2 25 October – Clockmaker – 2pts @ 14/1 10 October – Loki’s Revenge – 2pts e/w @ 16/1 23 September – Alsindi – 2pts @ 8/1 15 September – Take It To The Max – 3pts @ 9/2 11 September – Tagula Night – 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 10 September – Trumpet Major – 1pt @ 10/1 7 September – Eureka – 2pts @ 9/2 5 September – Aegean Destiny – 0.50pts e/w @ 14/1 19 August – Margot Did – 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1 17 August – Sea Moon – 3pts @ 11/2 23 July – Swiss Dream – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 16 July – Dux Scholar – 4pts @ 9/2 14 July – Jarrow – 3pts @ 7/1 9 July – Green Destiny – 3pts @ 8/1 2 July – Night Carnation – 2pts @ 13/2 29 June – Orpsie Boy – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 24 June – Ancient Cross – 3pts @ 11/1 16 June – Brown Panther – 5pts @ 13/2 15 June – Julienas – 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1 15 June – Strong Suit – 2pts e/w @ 14/1 14 June – Canford Cliffs – 5pts @ 6/4 09 June – Taurus Twins – 2pts e/w @ 8/1 01 June – Addictive Dream – 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 01 June – Submission – 3pts @ 3/1 31 May – Azameera – 2pts @ 7/1 26 May – Rock The Stars – 3pts @ 6/1 21 May – Brown Panther – 3pts @ 4/1 16 April – Rimth – 2pts @ 13/2 04 April – Taurus Twins – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 31 March - Nimue - 3pts @ 9/2 I was going to do a big, pointless write-up about numerous things but instead I'll just say that I couldn't be one bit happier about how it all went! Extremely delighted. Spreadsheet attached.... remember to wear goggles.

conv_1841.xls

[DLL]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Congratulations Monte a yield of 33% is amazing even most pro punters struggle to break 15 or 20%. Hope you can keep it up. :notworthy

[fintron]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) well done Monte, a great season once again and hard work nicely rewarded :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Cheers men, really appreciate it. :D Now if only I could turn a profit over the winter I'd be a very, very happy man indeed! Already 30 points down from my first 21 selections so I've a bit of work to do. 10 have placed though, so at least I'm getting some to run well. Just need to find the winners, which is the tough bit. Oh well, God loves a trier! Onwards and upwards. :beer

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Fantastic,even if you had -205pts you would have to be applauded for write up and effort alone.well done monte:clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Cheers mate, top man. :clap Hopefully next year will be as kind to me, minus the 49 losers I had to suffer at the start of the flat. :p -------------------------------- Just noticed I forgot to post my Temple Lord bet in this thread (it finished second) so I've added it on to the final Saturday post in order to keep the records and thread in line.

[BillyHills]

Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Well done mate, dont worry about the jumps form just yet, its all over the shop, it'll come right if you keep doing the same things :clap