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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

Monterosso
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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) I actually got a tip for Midnight Haze a couple of weeks ago and then duly forgot about it. :wall Anyway cracking tipping again mate, you'll have to start charging us in the future. :lol

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) :cheers Thanks guys. Christmas is sorted for anyway. :D --------------------------------------------------------- Gauvain brushed aside doubts over his ability to both run up to his best on the back of a short break and over the 2m 4f trip when running away with the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon yesterday. Nick Williams' charge jumped really well in the main and travelled like a dream before grinding out a thoroughly deserved success. In the end, his task was helped by the Nicholls runner falling and the favourite running below-par, but he would have been hard to catch anyway and was value for further than the winning distance, as he seemed to idle after the last. Regardless, he won and landed a 2pt bet at 15/2 in the process. Good horsey! At Ludlow, Midnight Haze once again showed his fondness for going well first time up when running away with what looked to be a relatively competitive handicap by 11 lengths. I was actually cursing my luck when Kim Bailey's charge was taken on for the lead and passed in the early stages, as he likes to dominate his races. Luckily, it didn't hinder his chances and having travelled and jumped like the best horse in the race, he stayed on stoutly for career win number 5. I'm not sure whether he'll be of interest again in the future (may be too high in the weights after this) but he landed a 3pt win bet at 8/1 (backed into 9/2) and made sure that there was a nice little double on the day. +39.00pts on a brilliant and thoroughly enjoyable day! Just one today. The racing isn't great. 12:35 Cheltenham - Edgardo Sol - 3pts @ 9/2 (Bet365, WillHill, VC) I won't be winning any prizes for originality here but Edgardo Sol looks to be a very worthy favourite in what doesn't appear to be a great contest, even though the betting suggests that it's a tricky one to solve. Paul Nicholls often has underpriced runners, vastly underpriced at that, but this 4-year-old gelding doesn't fit into that category if he has no problems with a short gap in between his races, as he only lined out 6 days ago. It could well force him to run below-par and I don't particularly like backing horses who have run recently but the price seems worth it, as I feel that he's still a well-handicapped animal off a mark of 134. Edgardo Sol last ran in a Listed handicap at Sandown, a race in which he was sent off as a relatively well-supported 11/4 favourite. However, things conspired against him mid-race, as he had to run on the back of a steady gallop and was constantly jumping out to his left on with is a right-handed track. He still travelled like one of the best horses in the race and got himself into contention when they turned for home but his effort petered out quite tamely, as he couldn't quicken when it mattered and made a bad error at the penultimate flight, which left him flat-footed. In the end, he could only manage a fairly distant 4th of 12 but it was still an encouraging performance, despite not being a brilliant result. Edgardo Sol now returns to the scene of his greatest success, as he ran out a most impressive winner at this track over just a half-furlong shorter on his penultimate outing. He travelled like a very talented horse that day and showed a telling burst of pace to put 6-lengths between himself and a very decent 17-runner field when encountering the Cheltenham hill. The return to this track should really help him (as he's going the correct way around again) and although he's 12lbs higher in the ratings and running in a better races against older, more experienced handicappers, he looks up to the task if getting that little bit of luck. Harry Derham offsets some of the 12lb rise on Edgardo Sol by taking off a valuable 7lbs and although not many can replace Ruby in the saddle, this fellow is a very talented young jockey who will be an ideal partner for this type of horse. There's a chance that they mightn't go overly quick up top here, which is a worry, but 9/2 is still too big with Nicholls' charge facing a much easier task than he did last week. It would also be a plus if the ground doesn't soften too much and overall, I feel he's worth having a medium sized bet on. There are a few dangers about, but I feel he has plenty of scope for improvement and Derham's claim leaves him looking very interesting indeed. Of the rest, one of the other 4-year-old's in the race, Tony Star (7/1), could prove to be his biggest danger if handling the track and he may be worth a small saver.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Edgardo Sol ran a cracking race at Cheltenham but in the end, he could only manage to come home in 3rd place, beaten around a length. Paul Nicholls' charge was well supported into 10/3 favouritism and it looked like he would collect, as he moved effortlessly into contention when they turned for home. He hit about 1/3 in-running coming up to the last but then jumped the flight a bit big and landed flat-footed on the far side, costing him valuable momentum. To be fair to him, he stuck to the task really well and was galloping on all the way to the line, but it came too soon. It's easy to make excuses but if he was quicker at the last, he probably would have obliged. Regardless, it was another great run from him and it was even more impressive considering that they didn't go hard in-front, which hindered his chances. He was the only one to get involved from the rear and I'd say that the performance rates as a career-best. It seems as if he'll be given a break now and with him only being a 4-year-old, there's more scope for improvement next year and he'll be interesting again back over fences. -3.00pts on the day. 1:20 Cheltenham - Takeroc - 2pts @ 9/1 (Boyles, Powers) This looks to be quite a good race in which claims can be easily made for many. I have nagging doubts about nearly every runner in the field and although it should be a no-bet race, I'm going to persist with Takeroc. Paul Nicholls' 8-year-old grey isn't one to trust, as he often saunters into his races before finding little off the bridle, something which I found having backed him last time out. That may well happen again here but at the very least, he should prove to be a solid back-to-lay proposition. This race should also be run to suit and although he's prone to some bad jumping errors (not an ideal trait to have when running at this track), Cheltenham is the sort of track that could bring out the best in him. Takeroc comes here on the back of a very solid effort a few weeks ago, as he finished 3rd over 2m 1f at Ascot. Again, under Harry Derham (on board today), this smooth-travelling animal moved into contention going best of all before his effort flattened out. The race was set up for those who stay well (the two who were ahead of him are ideally suited to a race run like that), so he may well have paid for chasing a solid gallop early on and it rates as a fine effort nonetheless. I'm also not fully convinced that he's suited to the Ascot track, so it may be an even better performance that the figures would suggest. Previous to his last couple of outings at Ascot, Takeroc ran one of his best races in years when scooting in by 12-lengths over 2 miles at Aintree. They went quite hard from the front that day but he jumped very well, and travelled as he so often does, before jogging clear to an easy victory. This race demands a lot more and he is 10lbs higher in the ratings now but one gets the impression that, if on a going day, he could run beyond his current rating of 145 with Harry Derham taking off 7lbs. He was rated 161 in the past, so he's obviously a high-class animal and is capable of getting involved off this mark. The return to a left-handed track could also suit and as long as the ground doesn't soften too much, he'll have conditions to his liking too. He's obviously a horse who needs it all to drop right and he is one who can't be trusted but he's talented and looks overpriced at 9/1. Small/medium stakes for me again and I wouldn't be surprised if he won this easily or finished out the back, but he's worth chancing in the hope of the former happening. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:30 Cheltenham - Great Endeavour - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Boyles, WillHill) Going to take a bit of a wild punt here, as Great Endeavour lines up for his third outing in the space of a month and as a result, whether he'll be able to give enough to defy a mark of 157 is up for debate. David Pipe seems to think that his 7-year-old grey is very well in himself at the moment and if he isn't feeling the effects of his recent exertions, I'm sure that he can get involved here despite the fact that it'll take another career-best performance to land victory. With age on his side and recent performances suggesting that he's still very much on the upgrade, I think Championship races await this horse as long as he stays sound. Great Endeavour ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup last time out off a 6lb lower mark and had his stamina held out for another couple of furlongs, he would have been victorious that day. In the end, he was 5-lengths behind the winner in 4th place but the way in which he had travelled into the race suggested that he was a classy individual and he looked sure to win it before his tank emptied in the closing stages. All of this was despite not jumping too well in the middle stages of the race and it was an ultra-encouraging performance, as the extended 3m 2f trip isn't what he's after. It was also a race run to suit those on the pace, so seeing him come from a fair way back was even more impressive (although it left less of an emphasis on his stamina, because the pace had steadied). The return to Cheltenham should suit Great Endeavour to no end, as the horse clearly loves it at this track. He put in a career-best performance here first time up this season (penultimate start) when running away with the Paddy Power Gold Cup over half-a-furlong shorter than he faces today. He's 10lbs higher now but in that race he travelled so very well and jumped brilliantly on the back of what was a scorching gallop, making it an even better performance than the figures suggest. I've no doubts that he can defy this rating but whether he can do it with a bit of freshness taken off him is another thing. Regardless, 8/1 is a bit of value and he's another for small/medium sized win stakes. This is a tough race but I think this fellow has a lot more to give, despite being so high in the weights. Hopefully he'll go well and doesn't have one of his off days. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:05 Cheltenham - Clerk's Choice - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365, Boyles, Ladbrokes, Powers) Another risky bet in what is a competitive Grade 2 contest but I'm going to side with Clerk's Choice, a horse who I'm convinced is top-notch when getting things to suit. He's very reliant on fortune and luck though, as he needs both good ground and a rapid gallop to be seen at his very best. Whether or not he'll get that here is questionable but Overturn is in the field and if he's pestered enough at the head of affairs, he's likely to go on and ensure that this will be both a good test of speed and stamina. Oliver Sherwood's 5-year-old certainly has bundles of both and if he gets a pace to run at here, odds of 12/1 are just too big. Clerk's Choice achieved his most impressive victory to date when springing a relative 14/1 shock at this track on his first outing last season. That came over a half-furlong shorter than he tackles today but on that occasion, he actually got his desired rapid gallop to run after. He jumped wonderfully throughout and travelled like an exceptional talent before scooting 21-lengths clear of a 141-rated Nicholls trained runner. This was all achieved when he was trained by his owner, Michael Banks. He has since moved to the Oliver Sherwood yard and is reported to have done well over the summer. Given how well he ran first time up last year, this could well be the time to catch him if all pans out for him mid-race and connections seem to expect a good run. There's no denying that Clerk's Choice has been a bit disappointing since that win, as he was beaten at odds-on on a couple of occasions since but they're performances that I can easily forgive for various reasons. The runs where he performed fairly well were both at this track, including when running a cracker for a long time in this race last year (ground on the soft side). His other good run came when he was a solid 6th of 11 in the Champion Hurdle and that race wasn't really run to suit him (finished ahead of Overturn). The change of scenery mightn't have done him any harm and being just a 5-year-old, we shouldn't have seen the best of him yet. I'm not sure if he has enough about him to beat some of these even if the pace is very solid but 12/1 is an attractive price about him and certainly makes it a worthwhile bet. He should run well and small/medium stakes will do again. Grandouet is the most likely winner but I'm not overly keen about taking 3/1 on him. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:20 Doncaster - Calgary Bay - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365, Boyles, Ladbrokes, Powers, WillHill) Henrietta Knight hasn't managed to get too many winners of late but enough of her animals are going well enough to suggest that it's not much of a problem and with a bit of luck, she could break that losing run here with Calgary Bay. This talented individual hasn't won since taking this race off a 3lb lower mark back in 2009 but he should be spot on for this contest having run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over the extended 2m 4f trip at Cheltenham. That trip is just too sharp for him nowadays (plus he's probably not good enough to win a race like that first time up) and the return to further at this flat, galloping track will help. When winning this race in '09, Calgary Bay was most impressive with his jumping (not always the case) and the way in which he travelled. The final winning margin was 7-lengths but he won so very easily, suggesting that he'd make up into an animal capable of doing the business at a higher level, something he had looked likely to do after impressing in novice company. Henrietta Knight, being one who is as mad as a bag of spiders, set him some impossible tasks after that and although he always ran to a decent mark more often than not, he was never given a realistic chance of showing his best. I don't think that he has been campaigned very well at all but I'd imagine that connections think this race is well within range and he may well have been targeted for it. Calgary Bay is likely to get everything to suit here, as he will like the ground and should have a decent pace to run at. I find it hard to see what will beat him if he runs to his very best but as we know, getting animals to do that is the hard part. The return to this track is bound to help though and Dominic Elsworth taking over in the saddle from Hadden Frost is a plus, as Elsworth is a very capable jockey over fences and superior to Frost. It won't be an easy race to win, unless he does run right up to his best, but 7/1 about him is attractive and I'll play medium sized win stakes on him doing the business. There doesn't seem to be any obvious excuses as to why he shouldn't go well and his trainer says that "he's in very good shape". All going well, he should be in with some sort of chance in the closing stages and hopefully he'll get involved.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) No joy on Saturday. Takeroc was still going well enough when he came to grief three-out but his jumping was very sketchy up to that point and given how the race ended up, he wouldn't have got involved anyway. It's time to give up on him, as he needs too much to go his way in order to win a race and whether he'll ever get a race to just fall into his lap in the type of contest that he has to line up in is very doubtful. Great Endeavour was in the process of running a cracking race in the big handicap at Cheltenham until he made a horrible blunder at the tenth fence and that ended his chances. He was actually still there three-out but got hampered by his stablemate and was allowed to jog home after that. Before he made the blunder, he was jumping beautifully at the head of affairs and had plenty of them at it, so who knows how it could have ended otherwise. It wasn't to be his day but he'll be of interest again and there's sure to be more to come. Clerk's Choice ran poorly, jumped atrociously and just isn't as good as I thought he was. He'll be impossible to place given his rating and although he'll probably come on for the outing, it's doubtful that I'll be on board any time soon. Really disappointed with how he ran, thought he'd do a lot better. My best bet of the day, Calgary Bay, was declared a non-runner at Doncaster and ended up being rerouted to Cheltenham for the big 2m 5f handicap. He ran a very good race to finish 5th of the 16 runners and given how well he performed there, it would have been very interesting if he lined up where he was originally intended to. Oh well, that's how she goes. -6.00pts on the day. Just the one today. 2:00 Fakenham - Knight Legend - 2pts @ 15/2 (Boyles) A decent field are set to line up for this 2m 5f chase and Knight Legend could make a very bold bid to land the hat-trick here if all is well on his first run after a deserved break. I wouldn't usually back a horse who has won a couple on the bounce, let alone one who's rising on 13-years-old at this stage, but Sarah Humphrey's veteran chaser showed that he still has a lot to give when performing excellently throughout the summer, despite standing a fair amount of racing. How well he'll be readied first time up is guesswork but he has went nicely when fresh in the past and his trainer says that he "has come back very well, and he should run very well fresh." Knight Legend won his last couple of races at Market Rasen over 2m 4f, defying marks of 116 (by 31-lengths, heavily eased) and 125 (by 5-lengths, despite being a bit keen and running off top-weight) in the process. They were obviously impressive wins and although he's up another 5lbs here (10lb claimer hops up now to make him look well-weighted) against better opposition, it may not be enough to stop this former 150-rated, Grade 2 winning chaser from going in again. The main worry is how he'll handle going back this way around in a race of this nature, as he can jump out to his right quite often, making him a risky proposition when going left-handed. Regardless, Knight Legend has won at this track before (albeit in a three-runner selling hurdle; was unlucky when short-headed in C&D chase off 110) and should be suited to how this race pans out, as they're likely to go a decent clip in front and he shouldn't be far from the pace, something that's ideal around here. The jockey on board, Mark Marris, takes off 10lbs and that could be very valuable. Marris looked to be good value for his claim when winning on his only ride over fences for the Humphrey yard a few weeks ago and if he can keep the horse straight at the obstacles, he shouldn't have a very difficult ride (usually a strong-traveller). The horse just mightn't be good enough to win a race like this off his current rating when going this way around but 15/2 makes it a risk worth taking. It's also a big plus that the trainer is in great form of late, with 5 winners from her last 9 runners and all certainly looks to be well within the yard. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll run a big race.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Knight Legend unseated his rider at the mid-stage of the race but given how modest his jumping was up to that point, he wouldn't have got involved anyway. I don't think the jockey was helping him in that department at all but it is a fairly tricky place to ride and he's very inexperienced over fences, so it's understandable. Disappointing effort but that's racing! -2.00pts on the day. Two for today. 1:50 Catterick - Eighteen Carat - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) This looks to be a fairly decent contest and Eighteen Carat should prove to be a lively contender if he can improve on his most recent outing, which was fairly impressive for a long way. On that occasion, Donald McCain's 7-year-old chaser set a very solid tempo in a race run over an extended 3 miles at Bangor. He jumped very well in the main (got close to a couple) and travelled kindly before they turned for home, but then tired and weakened into a 9-length 4th of 7. I'd say there's every chance that he'll improve for that run, as it was his first for about 6 weeks and he was found to be wrong on that occasion, which was his seasonal/chasing debut. Whether Eighteen Carat will appreciate this extended 3m 1f trip is a bit of a worry, but the sharp Catterick track is going to be right up his street (ran well here over hurdles; he was an atrocious jumper in that code) and I'm hopeful that he'll get the trip around here. He's also taking a drop in class to tackle much weaker opposition, which is another plus. On the downside, he will have to overcome joint top-weight but I'm hoping that it won't be too much of an issue. It's very likely that he'll be able to defy a mark of 116 before too long, it's just a question of what trip he'll need in order to show his best. There is plenty of pace in the race, so Eighteen Carat will have to go off fairly hard in-front if he wants to lead but based on his only win to date, achieved over hurdles when tracking the pace, it doesn't seem as if he must dictate proceedings. Jason Maguire hops up on this fellow for the first time over fences and that's another obvious plus. The yard are in fine form of late and with today's runner being likely to come on for his run last time out, I'm hopeful that they can grab a nice priced winner here. It's obviously a bet full of risk given how things are likely to pan out but this is a horse who should be kept on side for a little while yet and 8/1 looks like value to me. Small/medium win stakes is the play and hopefully he'll go well. Of the rest, Amroth Bay (7/1) is an interesting one but he has halved in price and I've missed the boat. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:50 Catterick - Storm Surge - 3pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Storm Surge comes here as a horse who seems very well in himself of late and with a bit of luck, he should run a good race in what looks to be a modest contest. Martin Todhunter's 8-year-old grey will have to defy a mark higher than anything he has ever won off before but that doesn't seem to be an impossible task if recent efforts under the capable Lucy Alexander are anything to go by. I'm also sure that, if racing prominently, he'll love the experience of running around this track from the front (ran a cracking race when held-up over C&D last year) and he could prove to be very hard to peg back depending on if he gets the chance to kick for home and get the opposition on the stretch. On his penultimate outing, Storm Surge ran out a convincing winner off an 8lb lower mark over 2m 1f at Kelso. In the end, he won by 3-lengths having jumped very well (until a mistake at the last) and made the running at a very solid tempo from the fifth fence onwards. I think he deserves extra credit for going off quite hard and keeping up to his work, although the track rewards such tactics quite often, so he may be slightly flattered. Obviously an 8lb rise in the weights isn't going to be the easiest thing to overcome but he looks to have everything to suit here and it's not a great contest. The Kelso race also looks to be quite decent form and although he re-opposes a few of that field on worse terms, I don't believe that they'll turn it around too easily at this track. Storm Surge showed himself to be in good knick on his only run since, which came over 2m 4f at the stiff Newcastle track. I just don't think he was ever going to get home over that trip, at that track, on soft ground and the fact that he ran so well until they turned for home must be taken as a big positive. He didn't seem to have too hard a race once beaten and now effectively takes a step back in class to tackle weaker opposition. My judgement of how good inexperienced jockeys are wouldn't be the best but Lucy Alexander looks very good value for her 7lb claim and she can clearly get a tune out of this fellow. She's 2-6 for the Todhunter yard and they're in fine form of late with 3 winners and a second from their last 10 runners. Todhunter doesn't have a great record at this track but at least the horse should be ideally suited to it and the 9/1 about him looks too big. I could be very wrong, but I think he should be the favourite here. Regardless, medium win stakes will do and hopefully he will go well. He certainly should if he isn't forced to go off too fast, which is a possibility. The horse doesn't have to lead though and that gives him plenty of options, although I wouldn't be keen on his chances if he's held up.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Eighteen Carat was handed the race on a plate when the two runners in-front of him came to grief at the second last fence but having got over the final obstacle with a nice lead (hitting 1.01 in-running at that point), he emptied completely and failed to get home on the testing ground, eventually going down to the winner by just over a length. I was exceptionally lucky that he had any chance of winning some bills there but now feel awful unlucky not to have got the win in the end. Such a pity. Storm Surge also looked sure to hold on towards the finish, hitting 1.25 in-running when scooting clear of the field, but it was a similar story as he was tiring after the final fence and got picked off in the final hundred yards. His early exertions took their toll, as he was sent on a long way from home and it could have been different if he was held onto for a while longer. Regardless, he ran a cracking race and got yet another good ride from Lucy Alexander, so no complaints here. -5.00pts on the day. It could have been so different but no harm. 12:40 Bangor - Oscar Close - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365, Powers) Oscar Close comes here on the back of a fall little more than a couple of weeks ago but if that doesn't affect his confidence, a big run should be on the cards on what is just his third start over fences. George Baker's 6-year-old was a maiden over hurdles (from 10 attempts; 3 seconds, 2 thirds) but given his size, he always looked the type to do a lot better over fences. He managed to complete on his debut over fences in May but made plenty of mistakes that day and shaped as if he'd come on for the experience. The ground was also very fast at the sharp Newton Abbot track and his run was encouraging for a long way, especially when you consider that he needs cut in the ground to show his best. Last time out, Oscar Close made his return to chasing having had a run on the flat in between and although he ended up falling a few fences from home, it was a very encouraging run. Baker's charge was a lot more fluent over his fences and loomed as a danger to the eventual easy winner before coming to grief as the tempo had increased. The soft/heavy ground at Ffos Las certainly helped him to travel with a lot more purpose (possibly flattered as they crawled along) than had been the case at Newton Abbot and I'm quite sure the run is suggesting that he's capable of defying marks well above his current rating of 104. Doubts have to be had over whether this extended 2m 4f at the sharp Bangor track will suit (I expect that he'll get further without problem) but at least he'll have his desired ground and a decent pace to run after. It's also a plus that the modest jockey who was on board last time out is replaced with Sam Thomas and although he's not riding many winners of late, he has an excellent 18% strike-rate over the fences at this track. George Baker doesn't have too many chasers but Oscar Close looks like the type who should excel in this code and most things are likely to suit today. Race-fitness should also be improved by his recent outing and if he feels no ill-effects from his fall at Ffos Las, he should run a good race. This is a very modest contest too and I'd be surprised if he's not good enough to get involved, even though there's a lot more to it than just that. 5/1 is a decent price and I'll play medium win stakes, as I feel he should be vying for favouritism. Hopefully he'll go well. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:10 Lingfield - Uphold - 1pt @ 16/1 (VC) Uphold has 6-lengths to turn around with Emerald Wilderness (11/4 favourite here) from their running over this 1m 2f trip at Kempton a week ago (on same terms) but that's not an impossible task now that he's returning to Lingfield for what will be just his second outing at the track. This should prove to be much more up his street than Kempton is and Gay Kellaway's charge showed his liking for the track when running a cracking second to one of his stable-mates in a conditions race over a mile here in July. That's an inadequate trip for this animal and if he's able to replicate something like that form over this longer distance, he should be able to have some sort of say in proceedings. It's also quite possible that Uphold will get a relatively easy lead, something which he was unable to get at Kempton last time out (had to track the leaders on the outside) and he is a better performer when dominating. He's quite a tough horse to place but a mark of 84 isn't beyond him when on song, as he won off 1lb higher at Salisbury during the summer and he's always capable of running a big race off this sort of rating when left alone in front. The yard are in good knick despite failing to have a winner lately and the jockey booking of Stevie Donohoe is interesting as he doesn't ride for Kellaway too often (last two runners finished second). This horse isn't a winner-in-waiting or anything like that but he's a 16/1 shot here and could outrun those odds if things go his way mid-race. It's a bet full of risk and I absolutely hate punting at Lingfield, so I'll just play minimal win stakes and hope for the best.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Oscar Close was very poor on Wednesday and that wasn't a real surprise given what the market was saying beforehand. In the end, he was pulled up having jumped moderately towards the rear of the field and he was never involved. There's always a risk when backing a George Baker trained animal but I was certainly expecting a better showing than that. Regardless, he wouldn't have beaten the gambled-on winner, so it doesn't really matter either way. Disappointing but he could be worth pursuing with for a while, as he should prove to be a nicely handicapped horse in time. -3.00pts on the day. Keeping things brief today. Plenty of bets to be had and not enough time in the day to ramble on about them. 1:25 Ascot - Politeo - 2pts @ 5/1 (Boyles) Politeo made an encouraging debut for Nick Williams when finishing second at this track nearly a month ago and with a bit of luck, he could go one better this time around. He's only a 5-year-old and although not the biggest, he jumps as well as anything and was described as a "savage jumper" by his former trainer Paul Nolan. Whilst he's said the be better on good ground, today's conditions should inconvenience him at all (has won on soft ground twice, albeit in modest races) and he looks one of the likelier types in this contest given the ground conditions. Whether he's overly well-treated off a mark of 128 is up for debate but he has only run on 6 occasions over fences, winning twice, and could have more in the locker yet. At this track last time out, Politeo ran over 2m 3f on good ground and proved to be the only runner who could give the easy winner (who was nicely handicapped) any sort of race. His jumping was good in the main and he travelled like a nice horse before tiring in the closing stage, possibly not helped by the race turning into a sprint for home. With that being his first outing for four months, he could be expected to come on for it and the fact that he was sent off as an unfancied 16/1 shot probably suggests that he did better than expected. Today's race is tougher but he steps back to 2m 1f on testing ground and this is something that I expect to suit. Nick Williams also has his string in fine order this season and if there's further improvement to be found yet, I'm sure that he'll be able to find it. 5/1 looks like a decent price and I feel the favourite is vulnerable, so small/medium stakes will be played. All going well, he should have some sort of say in proceedings. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:10 Haydock - Attaglance - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boyles) Attaglance comes here on the back of a very encouraging outing over C&D last month when carrying a low weight in quite a hot handicap. Malcolm Jefferson's charge finished just over a couple of lengths behind the classy Donald McCain trained winner in the end and was never stronger than at the finish after hitting a vital flat spot when the tempo increased in the home straight. I get the impression that today's very testing ground will be right up his street if he continues to be raced up with the pace and this looks to be an easier task than he faced last time out, despite the fact that it's quite competitive too. Being a 5-year-old, Attaglance is not overly exposed at all (especially at this sort of trip) and has taken quite a while to show his best. Originally, he was a very keen-going sort who threw away his chances by over-racing in the early stages of his races but he seems to be settling a lot better nowadays and should be suited to this relatively large field. Paddy Brennan taking the reins again is another plus, as he won with his only ride on board this fellow when they scooted in to win by 5-lengths over the stiff 2m 1f at Carlisle (won very easily). That was off a 9lb lower mark but the way in which this animal travels and jumps always gives hope that he has more in the tank when getting things to suit. He looks to have plenty in his favour here but it is a competitive heat and small/medium stakes will suffice. Yard form is a bit of a worry, as they're not really firing on all cylinders but I'll overlook that and hope for the best. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:45 Haydock - Wymott - 3pts @ 7/2 (Boyles) In all likelihood, this race should be all about Wymott if he gets around in one piece and, although many useful types line up in opposition, he could well prove to be a handicap blot racing off a mark of 144. It's not remotely as simple as that and he has to do it on the track but Donald McCain's 7-year-old chaser is obviously held in high regard, much higher than that of a 144-rated animal. He was expected to run a big race in the RSA Chase at the festival in March and McCain even said afterwards that he "put the cheekpieces on at Cheltenham purely because I didn’t want him to pull up in front – that’s how hopeful I was". It didn't work out for his charge though, as he came back injured after pulling up before they knuckled down at the business end. Wymott made his return to action when tackling the Hennessy Gold Cup off a low weight a few weeks ago and he ran very encouragingly, finishing just over 6-lengths behind the winner in sixth place. The good ground that day was plenty lively enough for him and the return to a much softer surface is sure to be in this animals favour. There's also a fair chance that he will come on for that outing, his first since the injury, and he should get a good gallop to run after, which will help him to no end. The McCain yard also seem to be in decent knick of late and have great results at this track, with 24% of their 112 runners in the past five years going on to win. I'm quite hopeful that they'll add another win here with this high-class animal and medium win stakes will do the job at the price. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:05 Ascot - Benbane Head - 2pts @ 13/2 (Powers) It's hard to know whether Benbane Head is after ground that's overly testing, as he has plenty of fast ground form, but taking a chance on Martin Keighley's charge handling conditions looks like a good idea at the moment (mightn't after the race!). This talented 7-year-old has been on the go for a fair while now and today's race is set to be his final start for a couple of months. I'm hopeful that he can sign off with a nice win before a well-deserved break as a mark of 136 is sure to be below the rating that he can eventually reach. His trainer says that he doesn't want it too soft but he has some form on testing ground and it may not be too much of an issue. Benbane Head comes here on the back of a 3-length second to Golan Way in a Listed contest at Sandown and although that looks like a decent result on paper, it's made even better due to how Keighley's charge jumped throughout the race. To be fair, he was atrocious at the majority of his fences and finishing so close to the winner just shows what sort of an engine he has, plus he looked likely to overhaul that horse when they were coming up to the final fence. Today, connections reach for a visor, which has reportedly sharpened him up at home and if it has the desired effect on track, a good run can be expected now that he's back in handicap company off a lowly weight of 10st 1lb. Benbane Head also has 9-lengths to turn around with The Minack (11/4 favourite here) from their run in the Listed Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton but the 10lb swing in the weights should help and better jumping would also make it more likely, as this fellow just wasn't good over some of his fences on that occasion either. The ground has to be a worry but the yard are in cracking form, the horse is clearly in cracking form and he's one that's more than capable of getting involved off his current rating. They should also go a good clip here and the track will suit, so ground conditions seem to be the only worrying aspect. If he handles it and jumps well enough, he should get involved and 13/2 is a nice price about that happening. Small/medium win stakes for me again and hopefully he can show his best. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:35 Ascot - Desert Cry - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Powers, VC, WillHill) Another Donald McCain trained selection here and this time it's Desert Cry, an unexposed second-season hurdler who looks open to any amount of improvement. I'm actually quite surprised that he's not a single-figure price on the back of what was an impressive seasonal reappearance at Haydock over this 2 mile trip. On that occasion, under the guidance of Jason Maguire, this 5-year-old was victorious off an 8lb lower mark on decent ground in a race run at a solid gallop. The final winning margin was just a neck but he hit the front plenty early enough and won more comfortably than the bare result suggests. The second horse looks like a progressive type who was also very well handicapped and they pulled well clear of the field, so it looks like good form despite not being the best quality of race. Desert Cry was expected to need the run according to his masterful trainer and that makes the performance all the better, as he had a setback just a few weeks beforehand. He travelled like the best horse in the race (under top-weight) after he was settled, which took a little while, and won despite not being overly fluent at his hurdles, something which he will have to improve on here. I'd be hopeful that he was just a bit rusty on the back of his lay-off and although he takes a marked step up in grade to contest this Listed race, it should be run ideally for him and he looks like the type who will relish being held up in a big field when they go a nice clip - which seems likely here. The ground should also suit Desert Cry to no end, as he ran out a most impressive 13-length victor in a novice hurdle at Sedgefield on heavy going when running in just his third race over hurdles. Timmy Murphy takes over in the saddle and if they're going to employ exaggerated hold-up tactics in order to settle him, he looks just the man to do it. He also seems to be riding very well of late and should prove to be an ideal partner for this animal. Whilst he isn't the most obvious winner in what is a very good race, 14/1 looks too good to turn down and medium win stakes will be played. It's definitely a value call, as the horse could still be a lot better than he's currently rated and he should also come on for having had that outing a month ago. Whether he's good enough to win a race of this nature at this moment in time is questionable but I'm hopeful that he will put up a bold bid and he looks very underrated in the market.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Stunningly awful stuff on Saturday. Politeo and Wymott were both backed under the assumption that they'd be ridden handily but that never happened and they were both dropped out in rear. The latter, despite being very well supported, was given absolutely no chance to show his best. Conditions were given as the excuse for his below-par run but I wouldn't believe that for a second. No harm though, it could always be worse and he's one for another time. Attaglance ran well for a while but weakened out of the equation on the ground and this run can be ignored. Given his usual strong travelling ways, the way he dropped out suggested that something wasn't suiting him and it must have been ground conditions (he was also very weak in the market, so it was probably expected). He's a better horse than that and will be of interest again when it's not so testing underfoot. Benbane Head was pulled up and never had a chance on the ground. He was quite a silly selection in hindsight, as his trainer said that he was worried about conditions being too much for the horse and that was spot on. Pursuing with him mightn't be a bad idea, but decent ground will be a must. It'd also be good if he was running at a track that doesn't put a huge emphasis on jumping abilities, as he's quite modest in that department. I've never witnessed a horse pulling as hard as Desert Cry did in the big handicap hurdle at Ascot and on a couple of occasions it looked like he'd pull himself over to the chase course. Beforehand, it seemed as if they'd go a good clip up top but they crawled along and that ruined his chance before they had run fifty yards. He's one for again I'm sure. Last time out selection Reya Star went on to win at 12/1 as well, which is frustrating as I usually persist with them when they look like well-handicapped sorts. One of those days I suppose. -12.00pts on the day, one of the worst in a while. I'm now on nice little losing run, with the current count being 13. Hopefully it'll end soon but after the last couple of months, I suppose it's to be expected. The monthly tally sits at +32pts, so no point in getting too down just yet and fingers crossed that a return to winning ways comes about sooner rather than later. 3:20 Wolverhampton - Spin Again - 2pts @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes, WillHill) Taking a bit of a wild punt by backing Spin Again here, as there's a chance that his most recent outings are suggesting that he's just regressive and not up to showing his best at this moment in time. However, if that's not the case and he was just in need of a couple of runs after a six month lay-off, he should prove to be a lively outsider in a race that won't take a whole lot of winning. It usually pays to race handily around Wolverhampton in any event but this race doesn't seem to have too many pace influences (the most likely pressers are all drawn high), unless some of the runners dramatically change their recent run styles, and siding with those who are up there from the off could pay dividends. Spin Again has twice went very close to winning at this track for the Mark Wellings yard earlier on in the year when running over a furlong further. He was beaten a length off 68 by an inform rival here (who went on to win off higher marks since) in February when under the guidance of young apprentice Lucy Barry and then went even closer under the same jockey next month when short-headed at this track by another useful all-weather performer (who had first-time cheekpieces to help) - this time when rated 70. A replication of that form would see him go well here and barring disaster, the race should pan out in similar fashion, which is an obvious help. Today, Spin Again lines up off a mark of 67 in a race of similar quality and although he won't be getting 7lbs off his back from the apprentice, Adam Kirby hops on board for the first time. When he's going all out to win races, he's as good as any around here and is also riding very well of late, so it's a definite plus to see him in the saddle. Kirby also has a better record than any when riding for the Wellings yard (10-70 on all-weather), who don't get many winners generally, and the booking could well be significant. Whether it is or not remains to be seen but it's certainly eye-catching in ways. Spin Again will have to put some very modest performances behind him, as he has only managed to beat home a single rival in his last couple of outings. However, he was drawn out of it in the widest stall last time out and couldn't dominate, which is something that he usually needs to do. In the other race, he just went off to fast and looked in need of the outing on the back of that six month break, so it may be best to forgive that effort too. It may well be that he's just regressive but I'm hopeful that isn't the case, as he has bounced back from poor runs previously. He has a lovely sit in stall 1 today and should be able to get to the front without much problem. If he's left alone in front and allowed to set his own fractions, he'll be hard to peg back if still as good as he once was. If he's harried from the off, there's a strong possibility that he'll drop out of contention and finish out the back. It's definitely a bet full of risk and I'll be quite lucky to see a return but the horse is useful on his day, at this level, and is a 25/1 shot, so well worth taking a chance on at the price. Small/medium win stakes for me and let's hope for the best.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Unfortunately Spin Again got taken on for the lead by a fellow outsider who had never made the running before and that put paid to his chances from the off, as he needs to dominate and dictate at a fairly steady tempo in order to be seen at his best. The market probably told it's own story with this ones chances yesterday and there'll be other days for him. Another fall in the weights is on the way and I do think that pursuing with him over the winter will eventually pay dividends at a nice price. His run here was atrocious though, but understandable in ways given how he needs the races to pan out. -2.00pts on the day. 2:00 Taunton - Legion D'Honneur - 2pts @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, VC) It's hard to know whether Legion D'Honneur is after this extended 3-mile trip but the likelihood is that it won't be an extreme stamina test at the distance, partly due to a lack of any obvious out-and-out pace in the contest. The track is also quite sharp and this strong-traveller can put this seasons misfortune behind him and run a big race at a fancy price. Chris Down's 6-year-old was quite fancied last time out (sent off 6/1) in a good contest over the extended 2m 4f trip at Leicester but having blundered badly at the first hurdle, before landing awkwardly on the other side, he never had a chance to show what he could do and was quickly tailed-off. In the end, he was pulled up before halfway and that's an effort best ignored. Legion D'Honneur lined out in an even tougher 18-runner handicap at Cheltenham on his penultimate outing and ran quite an eye-catching race before tiring coming up to the final flight. Having been held up in rear under Tom Scudamore, who's back on board for the first time since, Chris Down's charge travelled and jumped well before making up ground to chase the leaders on the wide-outside a fair way from home. Not long after doing that, the tank emptied and he had little more to give, eventually weakening into a 10-length seventh place. That was a very good effort for a long time and a welcome confidence booster, as Legion D'Honneur had a fairly heavy fall on his seasonal reappearance at Cheptsow a few weeks earlier. On that occasion, he had held every chance when leading at the second last and he may well have won if he stayed upright, although the eventually winner did it nicely so it could have went either way. That was off a mark of 115, and he lines up here off 2lbs lower, leaving a bit of hope that he's still on a workable mark. Possible improvement to be found by Legion D'Honneur over the trip at this very suitable track is another plus and Tom Scudamore hopping back on board could be another signal of intent, as it's a rare occasion when he rides for this yard. Chris Down has his string in good order too and that's another obvious positive. Overall, 16/1 looks a bit big for this fellow and I don't think that it's a great race, with many of the market leaders looking quite underpriced at the moment. If the horse gets a race run to suit and stays the trip, he should get involved at the business end and is surely worth a small bit of support. The market will probably guide this ones chances but I'm hopeful that today could be the day, hopefully it is. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:15 Kempton - Sugar Beet - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill) There seems to be an ocean of pace in this contest and that's ideal for Sugar Beet, who's not one bit short of speed herself and is always going to be helped when they go off too fast at the head of affairs - something which seems very likely in today's contest. The front-runners went off relatively quick at this track when she lined up off a career-high mark last time out but that came over a furlong further than she faces today and with the speed that Ron Harris' 3-year-old filly usually shows, I wouldn't be convinced that 6f is her trip, nor would a good 6f pace suffice for her even if she stays the distance (which she does, but a rapidly run 5f is her optimum). In the end, Sugar Beet was only beaten by less than a couple of lengths despite taking quite a keen hold in the early stages of the contest and that wasn't ideal at all. Regardless, that run gives plenty of cause for optimism with regards to her current rating of 83 not being beyond her and she was actually running off 84 last time out, so the handicapper is being a bit generous by dropping her a pound for running a perfectly good race. Whether she can take advantage is another thing but there seems to be no obvious reason as to why she can't and the step back to 5f has to be seen as a massive positive for this in-form animal. Previous to that, on her penultimate outing, Sugar Beet ran out a neck winner over the flying 5-furlongs at Lingfield, beating a decent field in the process (second placed horse was very well-handicapped). They also went off very hard in front that day and set the race up perfectly for her. Similar goings on are likely to be in order here and I feel that Kempton is a more suitable track for this filly, so she shouldn't have any problem in defying a mark of 83 over this C&D before too long. Hopefully that'll be today and with the Harris yard in good order, Luke Morris riding exceptionally well and the horse being in the form of her life, 6/1 looks like an attractive price. She was actually as big as 10/1 earlier on, which was madness but I didn't get to the race in time. Medium win stakes will do the job and she should run a good race at the very least.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Sugar Beet ensured a return to winning ways when scoring by just shy of a length at Kempton. They went off very hard from the front, as I had hoped, and that really played into the hands of this filly. In truth, she was a rather fortunate winner as the second would have surely won had he not missed the kick but it's nice to get a bit of luck for a change. The rise in the weights that will follow should put me off her for a while yet but if it looks like a rapid pace is in order over that C&D, she could be worth chancing again. Regardless, it was a fine performance yesterday and she landed a 3pt bet at 6/1 in the process. The other selection, Legion D'Honneur, was well-backed in the morning, moving into 5/1 from 16's at one stage. However, he was easy to back before the off and never looked like winning or landing a blow. Scudamore had him held up in rear again and his usual strong-travelling ways were non-existent on the day, which was quite disappointing. He was actually under pressure not far past halfway and that's unlike him, so I'd say it's best to overlook this run completely. He's one for again and should continue to be a worthwhile price. +16.00pts on the day. Just one today and I'm tired enough, so it's brief. 1:00 Ludlow - Nosecond Chance - 2pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) Unless there's plenty of rain at Ludlow, the ground mightn't be soft enough for the relatively short-priced favourite to run up to his best and as a result, it's probably best to look elsewhere. Nosecond Chance looks like the one to oppose him with and although I don't particularly like backing last time out winners, Charlie Mann's 5-year-old looks more than capable of defying an 8lb rise in the weights and looks overpriced to do so at 5/1. Connections are now stepping him up to this 2m 4f, which, at this sharp track, should be well within his range and could bring out even further improvement in this lightly-raced, progressive animal. Nosecond Chance won a modest 9-runner handicap over 2-miles at Hereford last time out, getting up in the closing stages despite looking to have a slim chance of winning with a couple of flights still to go. In the end, he made up plenty of ground to catch the potentially useful leader and although that animal was a bit unlucky to lose, due to jumping to his left constantly, he looks to be a decent benchmark (plus they were a long way clear of the rest). That run suggests that Mann's charge should be even better over a longer trip and gets exactly that today. His sound jumping is also an asset and if he's in a similar mood today, he should go well in what looks to be another modest contest. The yard have a great record at this track, as does the jockey, and this animal looks in with a good chance of running another big race. 5/1 is a bit too big and small/medium win stakes will do the job.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) Hope to be back online late in the night but posting the selections now just in case (just in case I have a few too many!). Back with reasoning later. :beer 1:25 Kempton - Loch Ba - 2pts @ 9/1 (WillHill) 1:45 Wetherby - Knockara Beau - 2pts @ 6/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, WillHill) 2:00 Kempton - Silviniaco Conti - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365, Boyles, Ladbrokes, Powers) 2:35 Kempton - Binocular - 4pts @ 2/1 (Boyles, WillHill) 3:10 Kempton - Master Minded - 3pts @ 7/1 (WillHill) 3:40 Kempton - Like Minded - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Powers)

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+295pts) 1:25 Kempton - Loch Ba - 2pts @ 9/1 (WillHill) Loch Ba has plenty of work to do in the jumping department but he's only a lightly-raced 5-year-old and should have more improvement to come. In three runs over fences to date, he has won once and finished second twice, the latest off a 5lb lower mark in which he jumped quite poorly but galloped on relentlessly to go down by a narrow margin. That was in a 5-runner contest at a track that probably doesn't play to his strengths. Whether Kempton will suit Loch Ba fully is debatable (won on chase debut over C&D but was very fortuitous; now 13lbs higher in a better race) but it will suit more than Sandown and the likely solid gallop in this decent sized field is going to be another help for Henrietta Knight's charge. Knight also sees fit to apply first-time cheekpieces and if they have the desired effect, the improvement required to see him play a part could be found. 9/1 looks like a decent price about him in what is a wide-open contest and he's worthy of small/medium stakes. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1:45 Wetherby - Knockara Beau - 2pts @ 6/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, WillHill) This looks to be a very competitive handicap but Knockara Beau is weighted to get involved in proceedings and can do exactly that if things pan out for him during the race. It looks very likely that he'll get a solid gallop to run after on this testing ground and that should be right up his street. George Charlton's 8-year-old hasn't won over fences for a couple of years but he has contested some very good races in that time and hasn't always got what he's in need of. Last time out, over the extended 3m 1f at Cheltenham, this game animal ran a cracking race to finish second to a useful Nicky Henderson trained improver. In the end, Knockara Beau was beaten a bit more than 3-lengths but that doesn't tell the whole story, as he got badly outpaced before flying late on. The ground was probably too lively for him and that run suggests to me that he's well-handicapped off a mark of 143 here on what is his ideal ground. The track should be no issue either and due to the highly-rated top-weight, Charlton's stable star gets in off a very nice weight. Overall, 6/1 is a nice price about him and small/medium win stakes will suffice again. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:00 Kempton - Silviniaco Conti - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365, Boyles, Ladbrokes, Powers) Opposing Grand Crus mightn't look like a great idea after the race but I get the suspicion that he'll prove to be better over shorter and could do with more cut in the ground. He's obviously an exceptional talent but there's enough there to suggest that he's avoidable at the 5/4 mark and I'll happily take him on with the Paul Nicholls trained Silviniaco Conti, a horse who looks much better value at current odds of 7/2. This very useful hurdler has taken to the chasing game very well and having ran a solid race when expected to be in need of it on his seasonal reappearance (was also going left-handed and he's said to be better the other way around), he improved significantly to score so very easily in a Grade 2 novices' race over 2m 5f at Wincanton. On that occasion, Nicholls' charge won by 25-lengths in a race where only one runner managed to finish in behind. It wasn't a great race but the way in which he jumped was impressive, bar one mishap four out, and there's bound to be a lot more to come. The step up in trip should suit and this track is likely to ideal too. Whether Silviniaco Conti will prove to have the class of the current favourite is up for debate but I think he could get the better of Pipe's stable star today. Medium win stakes will do the job and hopefully he'll run well. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:35 Kempton - Binocular - 4pts @ 2/1 (Boyles, WillHill) I've always thought that Binocular is quite an overrated animal but there's no questioning that he's an exceptionally talented performer and in truth, this race looks very winnable to say the least. Last time out, on what was his first outing of the season, he ran a perfectly good race when going down by just over 4-lengths to a race-fit Overturn (5/2 shot here) at the stiff Newcastle track. Given the fact that he was probably in need of the outing, I don't think that Newcastle would be playing to his strengths and AP McCoy didn't exactly give him a hard time as they scampered for home. Binocular should come on a fair amount for having had the run and the return to this flat, speed orientated track should help to see him in a much better light assuming that it doesn't turn into a wild sprint for home in the closing stages. Nicky Henderson's charge also improved a lot for his first run last season and won this race easily on his second outing, something which I expect to happen here again. Connections have said that he's working very well since Newcastle and I fail to see how he's not a fair way shorter than 2/1. Rock On Ruby is obviously a very good horse and won very impressively last time out but that was a handicap in which he was rated 145 and this is a completely different kettle of fish. I don't think he has the speed for a race like this (I may be very wrong) and taking 9/4 about him doesn't appeal to me at all. Overturn is bound to feel the effects of a tough season before too long and although my selection has work to do with him, I feel that form can be readily turned around at this track. 2/1 about Binocular landing the spoils here is just too big and warrants a borderline maximum bet. Hopefully he can give his best and if he does, he'll win. Whether he will give his best is the problem! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:10 Kempton - Master Minded - 3pts @ 7/1 (WillHill) Plenty of good judges seem to question whether Master Minded will get this 3-mile trip but I'm completely on the other side of the fence and it's a pointless discussion as far as I'm concerned. He runs as if he'll get the trip without any problem at all nowadays and I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he was still swinging away on the bridle as they come down to the last couple of flights. What happens after that against some proven, top-class stayers is beyond me but taking 7/1 about this exceptionally talented animal getting his head in-front over this trip is very appealing and I'm hopeful that he'll run a great race. Paul Nicholls has also targeted this race for Master Minded for quite some time and he has been trained specifically for it, so at least we know that he should be peaking right about now, which will be needed if he's going on to win against this opposition. Connections have also said that they're going to make a bit more use of him and that should be a help at this track - plus he's also much better when allowed to race handily. His 3-length win over 2m 3f at Ascot last time out was encouraging and although his lead over Somersby was diminishing in the closing stages, he seemed to be idling in-front more than anything. I also think that his jumping wasn't great on occasions and having got warm beforehand, it rates as a very good performance in my book. Kauto Star is the big attraction to this race and if my bet isn't successful, I'd only be too delighted to see him land the spoils. Whether he can replicate his excellent performance at Haydock has to be a worry and any value in his price has long gone. With him hovering around the 3/1 mark at the moment, I'd much prefer to take him on. Long Run is the other obvious threat to the field and he should come on for his seasonal reappearance but I just can't take to the horse and I feel that he's underpriced at 11/8 here. There's no doubting his talent but is he a worthwhile bet in this company at that price? I wouldn't think so. Master Minded is the value call here and 7/1 is surely too big for him. Barring disaster, he should have a say in the concluding stakes and medium win stakes will do the job. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:40 Kempton - Like Minded - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Powers) This is an ultra-competitive handicap hurdle but Like Minded is a very interesting contender for the Paul Nicholls stable and with a bit of luck, he could run a big race. This lightly-raced 7-year-old gelding has obviously had his problems and Nicholls said that he's very hard to get fit, so how well he ran on his seasonal reappearance has to be a massive encouragement to connections. Despite not having lined out since February, this fellow ran a cracking race for a long time when contesting a useful staying handicap hurdle over the extended 3-mile trip at Newbury, a race which ended up being a thorough test of stamina. In the end, Like Minded was beaten by 15-lengths but wasn't given a hard time of it when his chance had gone and before that, he had travelled into the race going as well as any before his stamina gave way. By right, he's likely to prove to be a better animal over lesser trips and the drop back to 2m 5f here is bound to be in his favour. The ground should pose no issues either and with race-fitness being improved significantly for having had a run, a big performance could be on the cards. Ruby Walsh hops back on board too and that has to be seen as a plus, as he'll give the horse plenty of time to creep into contention in a race that should be run at a good clip. A mark of 129 looks exploitable despite the competitive nature of this race and 8/1 is a very attractive price about this animal winning. Small/medium win stakes again and hopefully he'll run a good race.

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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+295pts) Binocular was the only one above that managed to get his head in-front, quite fortuitously too. -4.00pts on that day. --------------------------------------------------------- Statistics Update - Overall Bank (since April '11) - 435.78pts (+335.78pts) Bets – 384 Wins – 48 Placed – 83 Win SR – 12.5% Staked – 936.00pts Returned – 1271.78pts ROI/Yield - +35.87% AW/NH 2011/12 Overall Stats - Profit - +100.00pts Bets – 103 Wins – 17 Placed – 25 Win SR – 16.50% Staked – 214.00pts Returned – 314.00pts ROI/Yield - +46.72% All-Weather Stats - Profit - +32.00pts Bets – 28 Wins – 5 Placed – 6 Win SR – 17.85% Staked – 58.00pts Returned – 90.00pts ROI/Yield - +55.17% National Hunt Stats - Profit - +68.00pts Bets – 75 Wins – 12 Placed – 19 Win SR – 16.27% Staked – 156.00pts Returned – 224.00pts ROI/Yield - +43.58% December AW/NH Stats - Profit - +40.00pts Bets – 34 Wins – 6 Placed – 7 Win SR – 17.64% Staked – 75.00pts Returned – 115.00pts ROI/Yield - +53.33% December AW Stats - Profit - +16.00pts Bets – 2 Wins – 1 Placed – 0 Win SR – 50% Staked – 5.00pts Returned – 21.00pts ROI/Yield - +320.00% December NH Stats - Profit - +24.00pts Bets – 32 Wins – 5 Placed – 7 Win SR – 15.62% Staked – 70.00pts Returned – 94.00pts ROI/Yield - +34.28% *Placed bets don’t include the winners.

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