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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

Monterosso
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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+234pts) Another good day at the office courtesy of Galaxy Rock and his supreme cruising speed. Jonjo O'Neill's unexposed stayer tanked along throughout his race, jumped well more often than not and eventually went on to score by an easy 5 lengths, value for a fair bit further. He landed a 2pt bet for me at a brilliant price of 9/1 and looks like a horse who has plenty more to give in the future over staying trips. Hennessy, my other selection in the race, was never really travelling too well nor did he jump good enough to get involved in a race like that and he eventually pulled up when it was obvious that he wasn't going to land a blow. Given who he's trained by, I'll be keeping a close eye on him in the future and he'll be of interest again for sure. Originally, I thought The Giant Bolster was let down by his usual poor jumping again but having watched his first fence leap a few times since, it's evident that the eventual unseating of Tom Scudamore had nothing to do with the horses jump. He went over it beautifully but landed fairly hard and the jockey fell off a few strides later. Given his risky profile, he's bound to be a nice price when next contesting a big-field handicap and I'll be keeping a close eye on him too. Five Star Junior was relatively poor at Lingfield, although he didn't get the rub of the green at all when getting forced wide as the sprint for home began. He's one to watch this winter and I'm sure he'll pay his way eventually over the same C&D if connections can find a suitable race, as I'd say he was just outclassed today at Listed level. +8.00pts on the day. The last 4 betting days have provided a +35pt profit, so things are going well after a slow start in which I couldn't find a winner at all. Hopefully there's plenty more to come. 1:10 Cheltenham - Bellvano - 2pts @ 8/1 (Boylesports) Taking on Al Ferof mightn't be the smartest thing to do but Nicholls seems to think that he'll be in need of his first appearance over the bigger obstacles and that he should improve throughout the season, as happened last year. Whether he's messing about or not is beyond me but I feel the horse is worth taking on at best-priced odds of even money and Bellvano, who represents the in-form Nicky Henderson team, could be the one to oppose him with. This lightly-raced 7-year-old will have to concede 4lbs to the Nicholls trained favourite but he's got previous experience of jumping fences having raced in this code twice last year. After getting turned over in a novice chase at a price of 1/5, Henderson's charge went back over hurdles to run at the festival (ran poorly) before obliging in Ireland when sent back over fences. He jumped well in the main, travelled well and found plenty for pressure, which hasn't always been the case with him. That was on ground which is considered to be more than soft enough for him and I feel it was a very good effort when everything's taken into account. Bellvano now steps back to the bare 2 mile trip and that's something I feel will help him (ran over 2f further when last seen), as he has plenty of speed. He does stay well too and although Henderson says Cheltenham isn't his sort of track, I don't think that's the case. He has all the attributes of one that should go well here and I fancy him to do exactly that. It may end up that he will be simply outclassed but he was always highly thought of and looks open to any amount of improvement once he gets his act together. Being fresh from a break shouldn't be an issue for Bellvano and with ground to suit being combined with a likely strong pace to run after, he could run a very big race. 8/1 is just too big about this very talented animal and small/medium win stakes will do no harm. He may not be the most likely winner of the race but he's overpriced due to the inclusion of Al Ferof, who really could be anything over fences and isn't worth the risk (at the price) on his first run over fences. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:20 Cheltenham - Sanctuaire - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, WillHill) I'm going to continue to go down the route of having risky selections by backing Sanctuaire, who will either run a cracker or run poorly. It will all depend on how he is mentally on the day, as he can often throw away his chance by being too keen for his own good. Regardless, if it all comes together for the Paul Nicholls trained 5-year-old, he could well become the fifth top-weight in the last decade to land this Grade 3 Handicap and given his undoubted class, a rating of 150 is not beyond him in the slightest. Sanctuaire is 4lbs higher than when he tackled this race last year and although he probably wasn't going to get involved when his race was ended with a crashing fall 2 out, I don't believe the testing ground was to his liking. With better ground today and the race being weaker than it was last year, it could be a different story if he can relax mid-race. He disappointed on his following pair of runs after contesting this race but then had a breathing operation and made his comeback in the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, a race in which he won quite easily off a 6lb lower mark than he faces today. His next outing was a week later and ended up being a complete write-off, so it's safe to ignore it. Sanctuaire is one that will probably always give his best when fresh and coming here on the back of a summer break is no bad thing. It's clear that he handles the course as he bolted in by 9 lengths in the Fred Winter as a 4-year-old at the 2010 festival and course form is always very handy to have around here. The likely end-to-end gallop is something that he'll thrive on and it'll help him in so many ways, yet another positive. Everything looks geared towards Nicholls' charge running a big race under Ruby Walsh and I think he could be the pure class horse in the race if all is well in his head. If he settles, 14/1 is a gigantic price and I'll play medium win stakes on him obliging. Hopefully he will. I'm also going to back Viva Colonia - 1pt @ 40/1 (VC); David O'Meara's 6-year-old is not the most obvious winner in a race of this nature but prior to disappointing last time out on ground quicker than is ideal (also hampered), this fellow bolted up off a 9lb lower mark on soft ground at Cartmel. He lacks the class of many in the field but he travels oh so well when getting a solid gallop to run after and he will get that here. His jumping is sound in the main and if there's a horse that could cause a shock at a giant price here, it may well be this one. He's also fairly unexposed at this sort of trip over hurdles having been campaigned over further for most of his hurdling career to date. With regard to the track, it should be right up his street and overall, 40/1 just looks very big. I'll play a small win bet just in case the impossible happens.

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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+234pts) No luck yesterday. Too lazy to go through how I thought they ran but the pair in the Greatwood did well; the 40/1 shot finished 5th and the other was staying on when hampered. Henderson's charge was disappointing, although never put into the race. -6.00pts on the day. Keeping it brief today. 3:10 Wolverhampton - Dark Dune - 3pts @ 6/1 (PaddyPower, WillHill) On paper, this isn't the most entertaining race ever seen but Dark Dune should appreciate the likely strong gallop and if connections revert to more prominent tactics, I'm sure that he can exploit his current handicap rating of 69 in this contest. He runs off the same mark as when finishing strongly over C&D to come home in 4th place last time out and he met plenty of trouble in-running on that occasion. I quite like how he picked up on the back of a modest gallop and given that he stays further, it certainly wasn't to suit, especially given he was held up right out the back. The effort is certainly one that can be marked up. Overall, he looks to be a very exposed horse for his age (only a 3-year-old) but he's completely unexposed on polytrack and also over this trip, so he's worthy of support in what is a modest contest. Medium win stakes will do me and if he races handy, as he did for both of his wins on turf, I feel he'll get involved in the finish at the very least. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4:40 Wolverhampton - Frequency - 2pts @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) It'll take a career best effort from Frequency if he's to land the spoils here off a mark of 75 but with the way Keith Dalgleish is getting his horses to run, it'd take a foolish man to bet against him improving this one again at some stage. The way in which the horse can travel always gives him a chance of being the type to improve further and although he disappointed when sent off as the 4/1 favourite last time out at this track (6f), the effort is easily forgiven as he raced so wide throughout and just had nothing left to give in the closing stages. His penultimate run was quite impressive, as he scooted in off a 5lb lower mark over 6f at this track and was never stronger than at the finish, so the step up to 7f (which he stays easily) is another plus. This race should be run at a frenetic pace which will suit him and if Joe Fanning can get the horse a nice position from his sit in stall 7, I feel he'll be bang there to pick up the pieces when the pace collapses in the home straight. 8/1 is a very nice price about him but it's a tough race to call and I'll play it cautiously with a small/medium win bet, even though I'm tempted to have more on. Hopefully he'll go well.

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Tedthewolf

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+234pts)

No luck yesterday. Too lazy to go through how I thought they ran but the pair in the Greatwood did well; the 40/1 shot finished 5th and the other was staying on when hampered. Henderson's charge was disappointing, although never put into the race. -6.00pts on the day. Keeping it brief today. 3:10 Wolverhampton - Dark Dune - 3pts @ 6/1 (PaddyPower, WillHill) On paper, this isn't the most entertaining race ever seen but Dark Dune should appreciate the likely strong gallop and if connections revert to more prominent tactics, I'm sure that he can exploit his current handicap rating of 69 in this contest. He runs off the same mark as when finishing strongly over C&D to come home in 4th place last time out and he met plenty of trouble in-running on that occasion. I quite like how he picked up on the back of a modest gallop and given that he stays further, it certainly wasn't to suit, especially given he was held up right out the back. The effort is certainly one that can be marked up. Overall, he looks to be a very exposed horse for his age (only a 3-year-old) but he's completely unexposed on polytrack and also over this trip, so he's worthy of support in what is a modest contest. Medium win stakes will do me and if he races handy, as he did for both of his wins on turf, I feel he'll get involved in the finish at the very least. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4:40 Wolverhampton - Frequency - 2pts @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) It'll take a career best effort from Frequency if he's to land the spoils here off a mark of 75 but with the way Keith Dalgleish is getting his horses to run, it'd take a foolish man to bet against him improving this one again at some stage. The way in which the horse can travel always gives him a chance of being the type to improve further and although he disappointed when sent off as the 4/1 favourite last time out at this track (6f), the effort is easily forgiven as he raced so wide throughout and just had nothing left to give in the closing stages. His penultimate run was quite impressive, as he scooted in off a 5lb lower mark over 6f at this track and was never stronger than at the finish, so the step up to 7f (which he stays easily) is another plus. This race should be run at a frenetic pace which will suit him and if Joe Fanning can get the horse a nice position from his sit in stall 7, I feel he'll be bang there to pick up the pieces when the pace collapses in the home straight. 8/1 is a very nice price about him but it's a tough race to call and I'll play it cautiously with a small/medium win bet, even though I'm tempted to have more on. Hopefully he'll go well.
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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+262pts) Mighty Monday lived up to expectations with Dark Dune scooting in at Wolverhampton having been backed at 6/1 (3pts). Tim Easterby's charge barely had a race, as he never came off the bridle having travelled like a dream throughout before sauntering away from the field effortlessly. He's bound to get a nice smack from the handicapper for the ease in which he won but he's so lightly-raced on polytrack that there's bound to be plenty to come yet. A nice pace to run after is what he wants and he may well be of interest again over the winter if he's a decent price. Even the Me + Hugh Taylor combination jinx couldn't stop him, so he must have an ocean in hand! To make things even better, Frequency went on to score later on and gave me two winners on the day for the first time since June. He also travelled very well, as he so often does, and found plenty for pressure, which isn't always the case with him. In the end, he won by a cosy length and the step up to 7f really helped. I think that could be his winning over for a while but with the way his trainer is getting his runners to go, who knows how much more is in the tank. I'm happy out anyway, as he landed a 2pt bet at 8/1 in the process. +34.00pts on one of the best days in a while. Long live Wolverhampton! Just one bet today. 2:20 Lingfield - Regeneration - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Boyles, Ladbrokes, VC) Regeneration bombed out when encountering soft ground at Catterick last time out but that's easily forgiven and a much better run is expected from Michael Bell's 5-year-old on his return to the all-weather. From 7 outings on polytrack, he has managed 4 wins (2 at this course) and a place, which is obviously impressive and encouraging. I'd assume that he had problems as he wasn't seen from November of last year until about 6 weeks ago when he returned to run over 7f at Kempton and given that he was probably in need of the run, I think he performed excellently to finish 3 lengths behind the winner in 6th place. Regeneration travelled powerfully for a long way at Kempton before there was nothing left to give having tried to run down an all-the-way winner and he didn't have anything like a hard race, as he was just pushed out by Eddie Ahern in the closing stages. His run next (and last) time out was obviously a disappointment but the testing surface is a valid excuse for how he performed under his inexperienced 5lb claiming jockey and he should be a lot happier here (if he can overcome an outside draw, which is a bit of a worry). Jamie Spencer also hops back on board and he gets on well with the horse (2 wins & 2 places from 5 rides), which is another plus. The Michael Bell yard, who were in dire form for a long time, seem to be going well at the moment and this is their only runner of the day, so hopefully it's another one that will get involved. Bell reported on his site that the horse worked nicely on Saturday and if he puts it all in today, I'm sure that he can get involved off a mark of 76, 3lbs below his last winning mark. There's a few lively contenders here and despite thinking that 8/1 is quite a big price about this fellow, I'll play it safe with a small/medium win bet. Requisite (10/1) is also quite interesting under Joe Fanning for the first time and despite the fact that she's a tricky mare, she may be worth having a small bet on too.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+262pts) Regeneration was well-supported in the market at Lingfield but he was very disappointing, unfortunately. He got a prominent sit under Jamie Spencer but may have burned up too much energy getting across early from a wide draw (first 4 home drawn 5, 4, 3, 6) and couldn't quicken when asked. In the end, he dropped out tamely (shaping as if not quite right) and finished well beaten. It was another poor run from him but he's going to be of interest again given that he's on a very workable mark and I'm sure that he's a lot better than that performance. I can never get horses to go well at Lingfield anyway, so my track jinx may have ruined his chance! -2.00pts on the day. 4:20 Kempton - Ereka - 2pts @ 5/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, VC) This is an awful contest and certainly not one for big stakes but Ereka should prove to be a lively contender for John Best on what is just her second outing for the yard. She's still a maiden after 12 contests but shaped very encouragingly when sent off as a 20/1 shot at Wolverhampton over this 7f trip last time out. I don't particularly like horses being held up in rear around there and due to a poor draw, she also had to sit wide throughout. Given all of this being against her, the resulting running-on 1 length 3rd place that she achieved was ultra-encouraging on the back of a 2 month break (stayed on strongly on the back of a very good pace, which she never usually does) and she looks capable of building on it here. Being a Class 7 race, this represents a drop in grade for Ereka and I'm really struggling to find anything to oppose her with if the race is run properly at all (lack of pace a worry). The fact she's much better drawn today from stall 6 is another plus and I'm hopeful that connections will decide to make a lot more use of her, as they just couldn't last time out. That run did prove that she's capable of winning a lowly race though and today could be the day, with a little bit of luck of course. Ereka has run fairly well here before (on the back of a long lay-off) and with improvement to be found being quite likely for her new yard, I feel she's fully deserving of being the favourite here. 5/1 is quite an attractive price about her but purely down to the nature of the race and the possibility that she won't give a similar running again (due to a possible lack of pace ruining her chance), I'll just play small/medium win stakes and hope for the best. She's definitely one to keep on the right side of - as despite being such a moderately talented animal, she has a win in her off her current rating on this surface. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6:50 Kempton - Al Aqabah - 2pts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, WillHill) Another tough race to be confident about anything but I liked how Al Aqabah went about business when scoring here over a furlong shorter last time out and a 3lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop her if it's all systems go once again. Another career-best performance will be required from Brian Gubby's 6-year-old mare but she's quite lightly-raced for one of her age (17 starts) and based on how well she asserted in the closing stages last time out (despite being keen early, returning blinkers being the cause; on again), the extra distance could be what she's in need of nowadays, despite the fact that she managed to win over 7f when last seen. If we just concentrate on Al Aqabah's form when running at Kempton in blinkers, it reads; 1-2-1-2-4-1. That's obviously impressive and it's clear that she loves it around here. Her biggest defeat at the course (with blinkers) was just over 2 lengths and if she's going to achieve another win any time soon, I'm sure it'll be over this C&D. A good pace to run at isn't assured and although that's a worry (as she mightn't settle, nor stay on as she can), I think it's worth taking a chance on her regardless, as 6/1 is a bit too big. Luke Morris is on board for the first time and although he isn't riding many winners of late, most are going well for him and he's a very good jockey on the all-weather tracks. The pair also have a nice sit in stall 1 and overall, I'm not too keen on many of the opposition. It's another one for small/medium win stakes but she should go well and may have a good chance of winning it. Sweet Secret (8/1) would be a very interesting contender with a kinder draw but she may even get into the lead anyway and a small saver on her mightn't be the worst idea ever.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+262pts) No cigar yesterday. Ereka was well-positioned in her race but they went slow throughout and she just couldn't go on when the tempo lifted, negating any advantage she had by being close up. In the end, she wasn't beaten by too far and held on to 3rd place, so I feel it was a very good effort in the circumstances. She'll be winning a race before too long, when getting a good pace to run after, and I'll definitely be interested again depending on the price. Al Aqabah was also the victim of a slow gallop, as she pulled very hard throughout and couldn't quicken when it mattered. She's always going to be a risky proposition but could pop up again over the winter and will be another to consider when there's a good pace on. The eventual winner was 10/1 shot Sweet Secret and I said that she "would be a very interesting contender with a kinder draw" and that "a small saver on her mightn't be the worst idea ever." Pity I didn't take my own opinion seriously! -4.00pts on the day. Just one today and keeping it very brief, caught for time. 4:15 Wolverhampton - Ad Vitam - 2pts @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Ad Vitam was an obvious eye-catcher last time out when running over a sprint trip on polytrack for the first time and if he's in the same mood here, he should go very well. That run was over this C&D last week and in the end, David Griffith's charge was 2¾ lengths behind the winner in 4th place. Having been caught wide throughout (could be similar story from wider draw today), he covered more ground than anything in the field and probably would have won if it wasn't for an inexperienced 7lb claiming jockey being on board. In the end, he ran into all sorts of trouble when brought into the pack to try and get a run but finished very well on the bit. I'm obviously crying out for punishment by backing him with the same jockey on board from a wider stall but if the pair can get some luck in running, Claire Murray could be celebrating her first career win as a jockey after the race. It's a bet full of risk but at 9/2 it's one worth taking a small/medium chance on.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+262pts) Ad Vitam couldn't get involved at Wolverhampton and again he was the victim of a "modest" ride from his very inexperienced 7lb claiming jockey. The high draw inconvenienced him as he was caught so very wide throughout (as was the case on his previous outing) and could never land a blow as a result. He stuck on well in the home straight to be never nearer than at the finish and if connections opt to put up a more experienced jockey sometime soon, I'll be on board. -2.00pts on the day. Probably serves me right for backing a horse in an apprentice race. Keeping things brief today. 12:50 Haydock - Indian Daudaie - 3pts @ 5/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes) Indian Daudaie is yet to win in 4 outings since joining the Paul Nicholls yard at the beginning of this year but it's clear as day that this 4-year-old has plenty of ability and recent comments from his trainer have been quite promising. How he'll be on his first outing of the season is anyone's guess but he's said to have improved significantly over the summer and a rating of 138 should not be beyond him at all. The Nicholls trained animals are also going exceptionally well of late and Ruby Walsh is on board for just the second time, which is obviously a plus. I think this C&D will suit him perfectly and the likely bit of ease in the ground will be no hindrance, so hopefully it will all come together for a horse who has obvious talent. A couple of interesting rivals line up in opposition but he may well be the best of them and medium win stakes will do the job. 5/1 is a nice price about him and he looks to have a very live chance of running a big race. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:30 Haydock - Rival D'Estruval - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill) This is an awful race to try and solve but Rival D'Estruval looks capable of running a big race before he goes novice chasing and I fancy Pauline Robson's lightly-raced 6-year-old to do exactly that. He's upped in grade on the back of a 9lb rise in the handicap for winning a competitive Pretemps Qualifier when 4lbs "wrong" at the weights. That came over 3m and half-a-furlong at Aintree nearly a month ago and although it wasn't really a true test at the trip, he was never stronger than at the finish (despite taking a while to assert) on his first attempt at 3 mile. Today's race should be run ideally for Rival D'Estruval and given how well he can travel throughout his races, further improvement in a big field like this cannot be ruled out. Timmy Murphy hops back on board and given how well he's riding of late, that's no bad thing either. Overall, 10/1 looks like a decent price about a progressive horse like him and I'll play small/medium win stakes again, even though he'll have to find quite a lot more improvement in order to win. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:20 Ascot - Torphichen - 3pts @ 13/2 (Betfred, VC) This is a very competitive handicap chase and although it's hard to be confident about anything, Torphichen should prove to be a lively contender for the in-form Alan King stable. This 6-year-old gelding only joined the King yard recently but put in a very good performance on debut over C&D when finishing just over 6 lengths behind Anquetta (9/2 fav here on 8lb worse terms) in 4th place a few weeks ago. He also reopposes the 2nd & 3rd placed horses too but I'm quietly confident that the form will be turned around with all of them. Torphichen travelled like a dream over this C&D last time out, despite the fact that he was running on ground thought to be quicker than ideal. If it wasn't for sloppy jumping in the latter stages then I'm sure he would have troubled the easy winner and with such a swing around in the weights, he can do a lot better today. Ground conditions may still be a bit lively for him but based on how he travelled, it shouldn't be an issue. King now reaches for a first-time visor and if that helps him to concentrate at his fences, as connections are hoping, he should go close. 13/2 is a grand price about him off a mark that he will surely prove up to defying and I'll play medium sized win stakes on him to do the business here. Also; Takeroc - 2pts @ 15/2 (Boyles, Powers) Paul Nicholls' 8-year-old gelding, Takeroc, also ran in that race over C&D when last seen and although he disappointed back in 5th place after being well-supported in the market (into 15/8 fav), I'm willing to give him another chance here to prove that he's still up to winning this sort of contest. He's up another 4lbs in the weights as he was running under a penalty having scooting in at Aintree less than a week before but I just think that race may have come too soon for him and despite having to line up off 145 (once rated 161), he should still get competitive. Takeroc travelled very well under the guidance of the talented, 7lb-claiming Harry Derham (on again) and was another that would have done a lot better if it wasn't for some very poor jumping. I don't think he was overly good at many of them and if the longer break in between his races can help him in that department, he's bound to have some sort of say in proceedings. 15/2 is a good price about him and I'll play small/medium win stakes on him. Hopefully one of the pair will win it, although I think King's charge may prove to be the best of them in this race but we'll see.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+262pts) No joy on Saturday. All bar Takeroc (3rd) failed to run well and ended up disappointing. Not much else to say! -10.00pts on a very poor day. Seeing Kauto scooting in made it all worth it though. Brilliant. Still keeping things brief and just one bet for me today. 2:35 Kempton - Fontano - 2pts @ 7/1 (Boylesports) Fontano isn't the most fluent hurdler that you'll ever see but I think there's plenty of value to be found in backing horses who have had their form held down by jumping issues and he fits the bill here. Emma Lavelle's lightly-raced 5-year-old grey shaped very encouragingly on both of his runs so far this season and connections now step him up to this 3 mile trip for the first time (both runs over 2m & 2m 3½f this season). I suspect that this will suit him given how he was flying at the death over the stiff 2m 3½f at Ascot last time out, where he finished a 5 length 5th in slowly run race having jumped poorly. If his hurdling improves then I'm sure he'll be defying his current rating of 115 before too long and the return to this track will suit (won 2m bumper here on debut). The yard are also in cracking form of late and they do very well at this track. It's a tough race to call but 7/1 is a nice price about a horse who hasn't given his best over hurdles yet and I'll play a small/medium stake on him doing the business.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+258pts) Cheers! :ok ------------ A return to winning ways was provided by Fontano, who relished the step up in trip as hoped and won like a horse who is capable of a lot more. Emma Lavelle's charge travelled well in the main but was again let down by some sloppy jumping, which makes his eventual 4 length victory even more impressive. His best jump actually came at the last hurdle where his only challenger (at that stage) blundered and he asserted nicely on the run for home, despite edging right under pressure. I think he could do even better if connections decided to give him a better look at the hurdles throughout and it'll be interesting to see where he goes next. There's more in his locker for sure and if he's a decent price in a race where he has his conditions, I'll be on again. 7/1 was a cracking price last night (went off 4/1 co-fav) and he landed a 2pt bet for me. Happy out and it's a damn rare occasion when I get a horse to win in a 3 mile handicap hurdle! +14.00pts on the day. She'll do! Just the two for today and one ante-post bet for Saturday. (Hennessy Gold Cup - Saturday) 3:10 Newbury - The Giant Bolster - 2pts @ 20/1 (Coral, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes) Reasoning to follow on the day, if he's there! If he is, the price is just far too big. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12:10 Southwell - Bravo King - 2pts @ 20/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes) Bravo King has no previous form around this track and although I usually prefer to back horses who will have no issues with conditions, I feel he's worth taking a chance on. There's plenty of hope in his breeding that the fibresand surface will not hold him back and if that proves to be the case, he's a lively contender at a big price despite having to carry top-weight in such a competitive handicap. Richard Guest's lightly-raced 3-year-old gelding comes here on the back of a very disappointing run a few weeks ago but that is excusable given the fact that he raced alone on heavy ground in a decent contest at Ffos Las. Bravo King also travelled a fair way to visit that track and it may well have been too much for him to handle. If he can bounce back to form here then I feel he has all of the attributes to turn into the type of animal who will relish racing at Southwell and at a price-tag of 20/1, he's about twice the price that he should be. The yard aren't getting too many winners in recent weeks but enough are going well to suggest that it's not a problem and the exceptionally talented Martin Harley hops on board for the first time. If he can bounce out and get a nice prominent position from a less-than-ideal draw, then they'll be in with some sort of chance in the closing stages (if he handles the surface of course). Normally I'd play each-way stakes on this sort of price but I'll be greedy and put it all on the win. Hopefully he'll go well. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1:10 Southwell - Ezra Church - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365, Boyles, VC) David Barron always has overpriced horses running at this track and Ezra Church could prove to be another one if he's readied to go on his first start since the beginning of May. That shouldn't be much of an issue if his previous record when running fresh is anything to go by, as this unexposed 4-year-old dotted up in a C&D maiden on the back of a fairly long lay-off in February of this year. Barron is also more than capable of getting them ready when he chooses and if it's all systems go today, this potential improver should run well in a contest that shouldn't take a brilliant horse to win. Ezra Church's only run on fibresand was when winning that C&D maiden and although it's a fairly big change to go from a modest maiden to running in a decent C4 H'cap off a mark of 74, I'm more than confident that he's got plenty of improvement in the locker on this surface. His maiden win was also quite visually impressive and given that they should go quite hard from the front here, everything will be run to suit. Lee Newman - who was on board for this animals last 4 runs - has an excellent 35% strike-rate when riding for Barron at this track (6 wins, 6 places, 17 rides) and with the yard being in grand form of late, they look capable of adding another win to the slate here. It's a relatively competitive contest I suppose but 6/1 underestimates the actual chance that Ezra Church has and I'll play a medium sized win bet on him. If he's campaigned here throughout the winter, I reckon that he'll be rated around 10lbs higher before too long. Whether he's readied to go first time up is the risk and the market should guide, although I suspect my good mate Hugh will be posting this one...

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