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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+258pts) No luck yesterday. First up was Bravo King and although there was a bit of money for him in the last few minutes, he ran a very disappointing race. Whether he hated the surface or not is beyond me but he was beaten by halfway despite getting into the lead from his wide draw. I thought he'd do a lot better than that but he'll remain one of interest for a little while yet. Ezra Church was very strong in the market, eventually going off as a 7/2 shot (from 6's). However, he didn't go a yard from his nice sit in behind the leaders and maybe it was something to do with the kickback (which was said to be quite severe), as he just never looked happy in the run. It was a massively disappointing effort but he's definitely a horse to follow over the winter and the lost stakes will be returning before too long, of that I'm sure. -5.00pts on the day. Keeping things really brief still. 2:45 Lingfield - Ride The Wind - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, VC) Quite a competitive handicap for the grade but Ride The Wind looks worthy of taking a chance on if ignoring her most recent effort when last seen a couple of months ago. A combination of racing too freely and without cover on the wide outside (due to poor draw) probably did for her chances when sent off as the 3/1 favourite over just shy of today's 1m 2f trip at Wolverhampton. Going back to the effort produced on her penultimate start over the same C&D would see her in with a huge chance, as Chris Wall's lightly-raced 3-year-old filly was narrowly denied by a short-head when gambled on in a similarly competitive 12-runner race. It wasn't a race run to suit Ride The Wind though and I feel the effort is fully deserving of being upgraded, so she shouldn't have an issue with eventually defying today's 3lb higher mark. Chris Catlin hops on board for the first time and although I'm not a fan, he does well when riding for this stable. The horse looks the type to be suited to how this will pan out if Catlin makes use of a decent sit in stall 7 and overall, 8/1 is a nice price about her. It's a tough race to call, so it's just small/medium win stakes for me again. She's definitely one to keep an eye on and will hopefully be readied first time up after a short break. Market support for Mister Green (8/1) would be interesting and if it materializes, he could potentially rout this field. The David Flood/Tony Culhane combination is enough to put me off but he'd be my second choice otherwise. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:15 Lingfield - Nice Style - 1pt @ 12/1 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes) Nice Style probably won't get a race run to suit here but he did win a slowly run C&D handicap in January of this year off his current rating of 94 and should be able to get involved with a bit of luck mid-race. Jeremy Gask's 6-year-old gelding performed quite well when running in a Listed contest (4¾-length 5th of 9) over C&D little under a couple of weeks ago and that was also a slowly run affair in which he wasn't best positioned when it turned into a sprint for home. This race should be easier for him to get involved in and with Tom Queally booked for a rare ride for the Gask yard (2-3-10 on all-weather), I'll take small punt on the horse getting his head in-front again. He's very talented on his day and with a bit of luck, he should have some sort of chance as they fly for home in the straight. 12/1 is too big but it's not big enough to justify much more than a minimal stake.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+258pts) No luck yesterday. Ride The Wind was very easy to back before the off and although she was still going well enough coming into the concluding stages, she got shuffled back towards the rear and that was that. I doubt it was the intended day anyway and she's one to keep an eye on over the winter, as she'll be winning a minor event before too long. Nice Style sat a lot more forward than I thought he would but despite being nicely positioned in a slowly run race, he just couldn't quicken when he needed to in order to win. He faded out of it after they turned for home and I'd say he was another who will be doing a lot better on another day. Regardless of this disappointing effort, he should pop up sometime over the winter but could do with some leniency from the handicapper. -3.00pts on the day. Can only find two exceptionally risky ones for today. Can't wait for some better racing. 2:45 Newbury - Vino Griego - 2pts @ 11/1 (Bet365) I rarely manage to catch the Gary Moore yard right but Vino Griego looks to be worth taking a chance on, in what is a fairly competitive handicap chase. This 6-year-old gelding is as frustrating an animal as you're likely to come across, mainly down to the fact that he possesses plenty of ability but doesn't seem to put it all in when the going gets tough. However, as a result of not winning some races that he should have, he's attractively handicapped off a mark of 133 and may be able to give his best when carrying bigger weights against inferior rivals - like he does today. Vino Griego comes here on the back of a seasonal reappearance in which he was seen contesting a very hot novices' contest at Cheltenham nearly two weeks ago (sent off 66/1). Whilst he didn't show a lot and was beaten a long way (wasn't given a hard time), he should come on significantly for having had the run (has needed it in the past) and this race is certainly more his level. Connections decide to reapply blinkers today and he only wore them once before - when contesting the Listed Centenary Novices' Chase at the festival in March off today's mark. Vino Griego traveled like the best horse in the race by a long way (despite being a bit keen throughout) but faded badly after jumping the last when still in the lead and could only manage a 6-length 4th of 20 in the end. That's typical of what usually happens him when he has a race at his mercy but there'll come a day when he puts it all in and when that happens, he'll blow his current rating out of the water. He's still unexposed over fences having lined up on just 7 occasions and not all of those races were run in ideal conditions for him. His jumping isn't great at times but he has a fantastic engine and should make a bold bid today if it's all systems go. Track, trip and ground are no problem to him at all - the only worries are whether he jumps around nicely and finds for pressure when the tempo increases. If he does exactly that, 11/1 is a massive price but due to the obvious risks involved in backing him, it's only a small/medium win stakes bet for me. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5:10 Kempton - Valdan - 1pt @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) Quite an awful race in prospect but the favourite is vulnerable and Valdan could well be the one to take advantage if he's on song again. This thoroughly exposed performer recently rejoined his old trainer David Evans and ran a cracker on his fibresand debut when finishing in 5th place, just 3½-length behind the winner (would have finished closer with clear run earlier in the straight). That was a significant step up on anything that he was showing previously and although he's a very risky betting proposition, he has absolutely no problems with being returned to this polytrack surface. In fact, Valdan has run quite well on all four occasions when he has run over 1m 2f+ at this track and all of those outings came off much higher marks. He's obviously not the force of old and is on a very long losing streak but he's running off a mark of 49 with the very capable Matthew Cosham taking off a further 5lbs to make him look exceptionally well-handicapped if rediscovering his old sparkle (ran well off 10lbs higher in June). The race is also likely to be run to suit and overall, there's plenty of cause for optimism if he gets a bit of luck mid-run. 8/1 is a decent price about him but it's yet another very risky selection and minimal win stakes are all I can play.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+258pts) Cheers men. :) --------------- A good day at the office - although it would have been nice to see how Vino Griego got on if he had the chance to get competitive, as he was hampered at the second fence and unseated his rider having made a costly blunder as a result. Disappointing but Gary Moore's charge remains one that I'll be very interested in for a while, as he certainly hasn't given his best over fences yet and there's a nice race in him before too long. Valdan went on to score at Kempton later in the day, despite the fact that the race wasn't really run to suit. David Evans' charge traveled very well (as he so often does) before knuckling down to challenge in the straight and eventually got the better of the runner-up before asserting in the closing stages. That was the first time he won a race in well over 2 years and he could well be up to landing another before too long and I might be interested again. +6.00pts on the day. 3 today but again it's hard to find anything to be overly confident about, so I'd be delighted if one could oblige. 2:10 Newbury - Arctic Ben - 1pt @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) The top two in the market look to be lively contenders here but Arctic Ben, despite being a disappointment since winning a bumper on his racecourse debut, is still an animal with more than enough ability to win a race like this and a mark of 108 is certainly exploitable. Henry Daly's 7-year-old chaser can often throw his chances away by pulling much too hard in the early stages and that happened again on his seasonal debut a few weeks ago when sent off as an 11/8 shot in a 5-runner maiden contest. Arctic Ben jumped markedly left (not for the first time) in that race, obviously not helping his chances either, and given the fact that it was on a right-handed course, he should be a lot more comfortable in the jumping department going back this way around. I also don't think that the very stiff nature Towcester track suited him and running around the plains of Newbury will be much more to his liking, plus he has one of the best jockeys in Richard Johnson on board again. Arctic Ben ran a good race over 2f shorter here when putting in his best performance over hurdles in March of 2010 and if he's going to win a race over fences this season I suspect that it'll be at a track like this. Race fitness should be improved for that recent outing (yard rarely have them at it first time up) and he looks like a decent outside bet in this relatively competitive race, as he's still unexposed as a chaser and certainly hasn't given his best just yet. His chance could be ruined before he even goes to post though and for that reason I'll just have a minimal win bet. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:45 Newbury - Sivola De Sivola - 2pts @ 6/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes, Powers) Another tough contest in which it's hard to be confident about anything but Sivola De Sivola is an unexposed, improving horse who could well have oceans of improvement in him on what is his first start over this 3m ½f trip (never went beyond 2m 5f). Tom George's 5-year-old grey has only lined out to race on 6 occasions but he has been steadily progressive and ran a career-best when finishing a 13-length 5th of 10 in a Grade 2 contest over 2m 5f at Cheltenham last time out. As a result, the handicapper has put him up 6lbs but that doesn't come into effect until tomorrow and he's officially 6lbs well in at the weights here. Sivola De Sivola may have finished quite a way behind the winner last time out but it doesn't tell the whole story, as he was last as they turned for home having lost his position behind the leaders before 2 out. He then stayed on stoutly past beaten rivals up the hill and shaped as if he would be a much better performer if given the chance to race over further (gave that impression a couple of times before). Tom George gives him exactly that today and I think it'll suit the horse to no end. The track should also suit a lot more than Cheltenham did and he's certainly one of the more likely types in this contest. It's a tough race for one to get to the bottom of and as a result I'm just playing small/medium win stakes. I'm 100% sure that he has a lot more to give over this sort of trip though and he's bound to give it a good shot if all is well. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4:00 Wolverhampton - Riflessione - 2pts @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Riflessione could only manage to finish in mid-division when last seen at this track a few weeks ago but that came over 6f (over which he shaped well for a long time) and the drop back to 5f that he faces today will be right up his street. Previous to running good (yet unspectacular) races last twice, Ron Harris' thoroughly exposed 5-year-old gelding won back to back races for the first time ever (albeit poor ones), including over this C&D. That ended a long spell in the doldrums for this previously consistent performer but he's in much better form nowadays and looks worthy of taking a chance on again. In the first of the two wins, Riflessione landed very strong support (7's into 4's) to score in the dying stages of the race off an 11lb lower mark than that of which he faces today. It was the second of those wins, over 6f at Southwell, that has me interested in him again as under a 6lb penalty with today's jockey Luke Morris on board, this game animal scooted in to score readily in the end. That was quite a nothing contest really but he won very well and shaped as if he was bouncing back to something like his best. With a visor back on (replaced with blinkers last time out), he looks up to running another big race from an ideal pitch in stall 1 and 10/1 is a decent price about him. It's another tricky contest but one that he can win (has went close off higher marks here) and I'll play small/medium win stakes in the hope that he can do the business.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+265pts) Arctic Ben continued to prove what a weird horse he is - as despite switching to a left-handed track having jumped markedly left on numerous attempts going the other way around, he started jumping out to his right in the early stages of this race. He got it together a lot better in the middle stages of the race but he was always a sitting target as they went on the long run for home and could never stretch away from the field - down to a lack of the quickening factor more than anything. In the end, he was a fair way back in 4th place but it was a decent run until the home straight and he'll eventually get off the mark when it all comes together - although I may well leave him alone now but we'll see what he's up against next time out. Sivola De Sivola was taken to improve for the step up to 3 miles for the first time and he did exactly that having stayed on stronger than anything else to win a shade cosily in the end. Brennan had to stoke him along a fair way from home in order to keep Tom George's lightly-raced charge up with the pace but he often needs this to happen and responded excellently as usual. I never had much doubt that the pair would end up victorious after they turned for home and there's a lot more to come from this animal yet - especially when he gets his jumping together, as he's less than impressive in the hurdling department. Delighted to get another winner in a staying hurdle race and this fellow look like one to keep on side for another little while yet. He's said to be the type to develop into a much better staying chaser and it'll be interesting to see how it goes when he tackles that code. I will definitely be keeping an eye out anyway. Over at Wolverhampton, Riflessione was the one that got away. The market vibes were extremely positive for the in-form Ron Harris sprinter (10's into 5's) but having broke wonderfully to get a nice sit at the head of affairs, he was reined back and started to lose his position rapidly (I'm still unsure as to why or how). He was then hampered as they went around the bend but ran on stoutly in the closing stages to finish in 3rd place, 2½ lengths behind the winner and never nearer than at the finish. I'm not sure if he would have won anyway (winner was impressive and well-handicapped) but it's a definite that he would have troubled the winner and the effort can be marked up a fair way. He's one to remain interested in over the winter but the Harris yard are tough to get right and this was the time to get one of their horses - just a pity it wasn't the right result in the end. He ran a cracker though, so I can't complain really. +9.00pts on the day. Happy out and the inevitable Saturday losses are paid for (haven't had a good Saturday in ages). 1:30 Newbury - Iron Chancellor - 2pts @ 10/1 (PaddyPower) The Nicky Henderson trained favourite is likely to be all the rage here but Iron Chancellor put in a very eye-catching round of jumping on his chasing debut and can do even better here if all is well. Alan King's lightly-raced 6-year-old was relatively unfancied on his opening run of this season, which came over 3 miles at the testing Exeter track on quite soft ground. He was quite weak in the market that day, going off as a 12/1 shot but in the end, he performed a lot better to finish 4¼ lengths behind a useful type who knows that track inside out. It's not form to get too carried away with but with a bit of improvement, this animal is sure to improve on his current rating of 129 before too long. The main cause for optimism was Iron Chancellor's exemplary jumping, as he barely put a foot wrong on what was his first attempt racing over fences under rules (was a two-time PTP winner in 2010). Exeter isn't exactly the easiest test of jumping that you'll find and I think his fencing will always prove to be a massive asset for King's charge. He also traveled very well behind the leaders and according to his trainer, he "just got a bit tired two out". It's very likely that Iron Chancellor will come on a fair bit for having had that outing and the step back in trip (running over 1½f shorter today), being combined with a flatter track, should help to bring out the best in him if my judgement is in any way correct. It's obviously a hot contest with 15 runners being set to go to post but they'll go a good clip up-front and that will also suit. Small/medium win stakes are all that I can play in a contest like this but barring disaster, he should run a good race and hopefully he does exactly that. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:05 Newbury - Raya Star - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365, VC, WillHill) Empire Levant (9/4), representing the in-form Paul Nicholls team, looks like he'll be very tough to beat in this Listed handicap but taking on one who is coming into this race on the back of just a couple of days since his last outing (which he won by 29 lengths and is unpenalized) could be the right thing to do and the vastly improved Reya Star is the runner to oppose him with. This keen-going 5-year-old is yet another Alan King trained animal that I'm going to side with and although he's up 12lbs for winning at Wetherby last time out, the way in which he went about business was quite impressive. Reya Star was keen early on in the race, as he so often is, but he traveled like a talented horse and put the race to bed with a very telling turn of foot, eventually finishing the race out well within himself. He won like a horse with so much more to give (albeit in a poor enough race) and although a mark of 132 makes things tough now that he's markedly up in grade, along with the fact that he could lose his chance from just being over-exuberant, everything about today's race should suit lightly-raced animal. There is definite room for improvement with Reya Star's hurdling but the likelihood is that he'll be a lot sharper for his winning reappearance nearly a month ago (a career-best by some way) and I'm hopeful that he'll do a lot better in that department today. He's one of the more risky bets that can be found today but he's 8/1 and that's a fair price. Small/medium win stakes again and if he settle well and jumps well, he should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Previously advised. 3:10 Newbury - The Giant Bolster - 2pts @ 20/1 (Coral, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes) There will come a time when The Giant Bolster manages to complete in a very good race over fences and if he does that here, I've no doubts that he's more than good enough to become the first 6-year-old winner of this race for five years. David Bridgwater's charge has obviously been a disappointment in the main, as he has failed to complete on 4 of the 6 occasions that he has run over fences. However, after a summer of training in that department with jumping guru Yogi Breisner, he was expected to go well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago - for which he was sent off as a well-backed 10/1 shot (Pricewise influenced). Things obviously didn't go well for The Giant Bolster, as I wouldn't be getting 20/1 about him here if they did. However, it wasn't his fault that Tom Scudamore decided to somersault out of the saddle after he jumped the first fence quite well and I feel he's certainly worth taking another chance on here. A rating of 146 is surely not the limit of this well-built animals ability and if it all comes together in the jumping department (Bridgwater is adamant that he's "a brilliant jumper at home"), he's sure to run a big race. The Giant Bolster has won both times that he has got a clear round in over fences and both were quite impressive performances, despite the fact that he didn't jump too well on occasions. He has a great engine, gallops all day, travels well and the only thing stopping him from mixing it with the best is his ability to avoid making costly blunders. I've a sneaky feeling that he'll really enjoy the jumping test at Newbury in a race of this nature and the 3m 2½f trip promises to bring out a lot more from his locker if he can just manage to stay upright (and races relatively handy). He also has a lovely racing weight of 10st 4lbs and ground conditions are perfect too. It's a clear risk backing a horse like this but I've no doubts that he's a very high-class individual and it will eventually go right for him. 20/1 is too big and small/medium win stakes will do the job. Hopefully he'll get around at least and it'd be lovely if he could go on to win! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:45 Newbury - Crescent Island - 2pts @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes, VC, WillHill) Crescent Island is prone to the odd blunder, like most of my selections today, but he's a very talented horse on his day and looks quite overpriced in a contest where he is one of the more classy types. Nigel Twiston-Davies' 8-year-old gelding comes here on the back of a disappointing reappearance, which came over 3 miles at Haydock. After the eleventh fence, he had to be pulled up by his jockey having made a horrendous blunder (saddle slipped subsequently) when still going as well as anything in a quite decent race. Crescent Island's jumping was very good in the main up until that point and although it wasn't ideal to see him go out of the race like that, it seems to be the main basis for such a large price here, as everything else is spot on. Race-fitness should also be improved for having had that outing and this step back to 2m 4f should suit at this track (where he has won and placed over hurdles previously), assuming he's not hindered by having to go a bit quicker into his fences (making him even more prone to mistakes). Nigel Twiston-Davies also says he's "in very good nick" and all going well, he should be able to get involved here. He's a strong-travelling type who should appreciate how this race is run and with no problems with regards trip, ground or track, I wouldn't be surprised to see him give the market leaders a bit of a scare. Crescent Island is a very talented horse on his day, as shown when bolting in off 7lbs lower at Wetherby in February (on back of 22 month lay-off), and small/medium stakes are the play once again. If he jumps well, he's bound to run a big race and any market support would be interesting, as I'm sure that he shouldn't be anything near 16/1. He's another risky one though and anything could happen - hopefully victory. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:30 Newcastle - Hey Big Spender - 4pts @ 9/2 (Bet365, PaddyPower, VC) Time to back another sketchy jumper and this time it's Hey Big Spender, a finely built 8-year-old chaser that represents the Colin Tizzard yard. Whether or not he'll get away with the likely good ground is a bit of a risk (all wins on good-to-soft or worse) but connections say it's 2m 4f on soft ground or 3m on good ground that he's after and if they're correct, he should take all of the beating here at a track that is sure to suit. The Tizzard's are also making a 660+ mile round trip in order to run him and one other at this track, and I doubt they're doing that for the fun of it. Hey Big Spender is always at his best when carrying big weights against inferior rivals and that's the case again here, as he's going to be carrying at least a stone more than his nearest rival in the weights once the jockeys claim is taken into account. That wouldn't worry me at all though and he's a much better betting proposition in this race than any of his rivals - I fail to see how he's deemed to be a 9/2 shot (it may be obvious after the race!). He's on his last winning mark too having been dropped a pound for running well in a good Grade 3 contest over 3m 3½f at Cheltenham and that was his first outing of the season, a most encouraging one at that. Minella Theatre currently holds favouritism on what is his first start for the Lawney Hill stable and although he has an excellent record first time up, I just can't fancy him at the price given how many problems have blighted his career. He's potentially very well-treated but he's 7/2 and shortening, which just isn't right. Colin Tizzard's Hey Big Spender is the one to beat and should be no bigger than 2/1, possibly shorter. If he avoids his customary jumping mistakes and travels with his usual fluency, he could win this doing cartwheels and the likes. Whether he'll do that or not is another thing but it's a borderline maximum bet for me due to the price and hopefully he can oblige.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+265pts) On Saturday, Hey Big Spender justified a borderline maximum bet (4pts @ 9/2) by coming home in 1st place at Newcastle. I don't think he was given a particularly good ride by Joe Tizzard and ended up making numerous jumping errors as a result, which meant the eventual winning margin was a lot less than it should have been. Regardless, he won having been very strong in the market (backed into 5/2) and made sure it was another good day at the office! I think he has the ability to do better back up in grade but I'm not convinced by his jockey at all and that'll be enough for me to swerve him until he's back running against vastly inferior opposition again. Crescent Island was the one that got away, as he finished 2nd having been caught near the line. It looked like he'd hold on when jumping the last in the lead but he was probably happy enough to have some company and eventually gave way to the winner. Very disappointing, as he was backed from 16's into 10's and it looked like it was the day to catch him. Can't complain though, he ran a cracker. The King pair, Iron Chancellor and Raya Star, ran good races to both finish 3rd at 12/1. They'll be of interest again over the coming months - especially the former, as I'm sure that he has a lot more to offer the chasing game and there's improvement to come when getting a softer surface. Saturday's run was highly encouraging, even though he didn't jump half as well as he did at Exeter on his seasonal/chasing debut. The Giant Bolster ran a cracker in the Hennessy Gold Cup to come home in 7th place and proved that he has a big pot in him when getting ideal conditions. His jumping wasn't great at times (was nice to see him get around mind!) but he was quite good in the main and traveled like a dream before running out of steam in the closing stages. I thought he'd love the test that he'd get in the race and although he did until about three fences from home, it was probably a case that he didn't stay the trip on the back of such a generous gallop. A return to a sharper test run at a solid gallop (plus more prominent tactics) would be right up his street and I'll be on board again at some stage. This was a fine effort though, so there are no complaints. +10.00pts on the day. That's also just the second time that I've had winner on three consecutive days this year (last time was Royal Ascot) and it was the 9th winner of the month. Things are going well and I now love National Hunt racing!! Two for today but keeping it brief enough. Half-asleep! 2:15 Lingfield - Alshazah - 3pts @ 4/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes) I rarely bother backing horses that won last time out but Alshazah was very impressive when scooting away with a reasonably competitive handicap at Wolverhampton and Rod Millman's progressive 3-year-old could follow up here if all is well. Now 5lb higher and running off a career-high mark of 80, this consistent animal will have to put in another improved performance to win but that looks like a strong possibility for one who's still unexposed in the main. He's also very unexposed over these middle distances and was never stronger than at the finish last time out, albeit on the back of a steady gallop. The horse who finished 2nd is a useful, strong-traveling type and to beat her like he did was impressive. She has disappointed since but in a race run at a ferocious gallop and I wouldn't see it as being a performance to devalue the bare form. Today, they're likely to go a modest enough tempo up front but that'll suit Alshazah, as he seems to have a nice turn of foot when they don't go off too quick. The track shouldn't be an issue either and his regular partner, James Millman, is on board for his only ride of the day. This is also the yards only runner of the day and they make a 350 mile round trip in order to run him, although their record on the all-weather track here isn't great. Regardless, 4/1 is a very fair price about this animal and I don't think the opposition are too much use and plenty will be unsuited to how it pans out if they do go relatively slow at the head of affairs. Medium win stakes for me and any market support would be very encouraging. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:50 Lingfield - Piscean - 3pts @ 11/1 (VC) This is a cracking race for a Tuesday on the all-weather and Piscean looks capable of bouncing back to his best now that he's returned to his favoured surface at a track that suits him perfectly. This often fast-finishing 6-year-old has only run on 3 occasions during the flat season due to having had a few problems throughout the year according to his trainer but he shaped well enough on his final start at Doncaster when completely unfancied in a big-field 5f sprint just over five weeks ago. With the pace likely to be very strong today, there's no reason why he can't run a big race off an attractive handicap mark of 94 - 1lb higher than when scoring impressively over 6f at Wolverhampton just over a year ago. Piscean has also won on 2 of his 3 starts at this track and was finishing as fast as anything when coming home a 2-length 5th of 11 on his only attempt at 6f around here. That was off a 3lb higher mark in which they didn't go too quick early on and that just doesn't suit him usually, as he needs an end-to-end gallop in order to be seen at his best over both 5f and 6f. Piscean is also fresher than most at this time of year and that's bound to stand him in good stead. His trainer reports that "he's in very good form and I am hopeful because I know how fit he is at the moment". Now I know there's little point in taking much out of that but at least it's positive and Tom Keddy sees fit to book Jimmy Fortune, something which has only happened a couple of times before. Fortune is one of my favourite jockeys and he's on board this fellow for the first time. With a bit of luck in-running, they'll be finishing very fast to be in with a chance at the end and overall, 11/1 is a very big price (was 16's earlier). Despite missing a bigger price, I think he should be much shorter than this and I'll have another medium sized win bet due to the price. He's a risky selection but should get involved.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+265pts) No luck on Tuesday with both Alshazah and Piscean running well below expectations. The former just didn't have the speed to cope with how the race panned out, whilst the latter just never got involved from the rear in a contest that favoured those on the pace - despite the winner being out the back too. I probably won't be interested in Millman's charge again but the other is going to pop up sometime soon and I hope to be on board. Poor efforts but that's how she goes. -6.00pts on the day. November stats will be updated soon. Just one today. 2:45 Wincanton - Dineur - 2pts @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes, VC, WillHill) Quite a competitive contest here but Alan King's Dineur looks to be an interesting proposition on his handicap debut off a mark of 114 and should run a big race if he can cope with the fact that he's likely to be taken on for the lead. Whether he can or not is beyond me but this lightly-raced 5-year-old is sure to have a lot more to give the hurdling game having lined out on just 4 occasions and he shaped as if his previous keen-going ways were a thing of the past when running an encouraging race on his seasonal return. That came over just shy of 2m 1f at the speedy Huntingdon track and King's charge travelled nicely before giving way just before 2 out having made a blunder at the previous flight. It was a novices' contest and Dineur was giving away at least 7lbs to the rest of the field due to having to carry a penalty for winning on his final start of 2011 and in the circumstances, it was a very good run. His jumping wasn't quite up to scratch and he shaped as if needing the outing, so with race-fitness being better here and the likelihood of his hurdling improving too, I feel he's worth taking a chance on at 11/2. He is the current favourite, so it's hardly an inspired selection but he's overpriced and small/medium win stakes will do no harm. The ground, track and trip all suit. Hopefully he'll go well, although he isn't without risks at all and it's not the easiest race to get right.

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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+265pts) Thanks men. :cheers ----------------- Bar a couple of slow jumps, Dineur was quick and fluent throughout (which hasn't always been the case in his short hurdling career to date) as he made all of the running to score gamely at Wincanton. He brought in a 2pt bet at 11/2 in the process and looks sure to go on to better things in the future, as I'm quite sure that he's better than the bare performance given how fast he had to go early on in order to stay up at the head of affairs. It'll be interesting to see where he heads next and I'll be keeping a close eye on him, although I don't like backing horses who won last time out. +11.00pts on the day. 1:30 Exeter - Sound Accord - 1pt @ 25/1 (Boyles, Powers, WillHill) I could be wasting a few quid here but Sound Accord looks a mightily big price if his recent reappearance brings him on sufficiently, as he's potentially thrown in off a mark of 116 if retaining some of his old abilities. Alex Hales' 10-year-old has only lined out twice in the past couple of years (pulled up both times) due to having had a bad leg injury but word from the camp seems quite positive and they expect that he'll come on for having had that run a few weeks ago. This is also a lot easier than his last assignment and the price makes it a risk worth taking. Sound Accord lined out in the Southern National at Fontwell (3m 4f, soft ground) a few weeks ago and although he has won at that track before, I don't think that it's a place where he can give his best. Despite running in snatches from time to time, Hales' charge jumped quite well in the main and also travelled sweetly enough before he tired around 4 fences from home. In the end, he was pulled up but it was a very encouraging outing from a horse who probably needed the outing (has in the past) and he should come on a fair way for it. Connections now step Sound Accord back up to this marathon 4 mile trip and that's something I expect him to relish, as he's quite a one-paced relentless galloper who stays all day. Whether he retains much of his old ability or not is another thing but the handicapper has dropped him another 4lbs for his comeback run and he's nearly 20lbs lower than his peak rating over fences. Despite bordering on 11-years-old at this stage, he hasn't had much racing in recent years and he's not exposed over fences either, especially under ideal conditions. Today, everything will suit and if he's anything like his old self, he should run a good race. I also think the Exeter track could help to bring out the best in him and 25/1 is just too big. It's a bet full of risk though, so a minimal bet is all I can play. Hopefully he'll go well. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:15 Exeter - Rockabilly - 3pts @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes) 12 runners are set to go to post for this novices' handicap chase but I don't think it's a contest of much use and it shouldn't take a whole lot of winning. Siding with one who's open to significant improvement in this sphere is the obvious way to go and Rockabilly, a horse I've selected on his last couple of outings, stands out like a sore thumb here. His ability to handle some cut in the ground is a bit of a worry but he's surely going to prove to be a lot better than his current rating of 105 and it's only a matter of time before he gets off the mark. Rockabilly is a Nigel Twiston-Davies trained 6-year-old who was subject to very strong support in a much more competitive contest last time out. He was backed from around 8's the night before into a starting price of 3/1 and it was clear that he was expected to make a winning debut on his first outing over the larger fences (interesting that they threw him straight into a decent handicap). Things didn't work out for him though, as having taken a nice prominent position in behind the pacemakers, he made a terrible blunder at the first fence and dropped out towards the rear of the field - not ideal in a race that favoured those on the pace. In the end, Rockabilly stayed on from the rear like a true stayer in the making and came home in 3rd place, just a length behind the second placed animal and a further 15 lengths behind the winner. The bare form of the race is quite decent and with this being a massive step down in class for the Twiston-Davies runner, I'm expecting a big performance. As mentioned, his ability to handle the ground is a worry but at least we know that he has no issues with the track having won over hurdles here off a 4lb lower mark and he is the type to do even better over fences. It's also good to see that he's had a month off since that tough race and all going well, he should have a smoother outing here. 3/1 isn't a price I'm usually too keen to play but he's a deserving favourite here and the price is too big (should be 2/1 at most) if connections decide that it'll all systems go. I'll play medium win stakes and hopefully he'll run a big race.

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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+280pts) Close but no cigar over at Exeter as Rockabilly could only manage to finish in 2nd place, beaten by an exceptionally game performer who jumped very well from the front. The Twiston-Davies trained animal was a well-backed 7/4 favourite but his jumping wasn't foot perfect on occasions and if he had of done better in that department, he would have entered the winners enclosure afterwards. Regardless, he ran a cracking race under top-weight and will be of interest again in the future, possibly when he embarks over further as he's all about stamina. Sound Accord was my other selection and although he was pulled up in the end after tailing off, he shaped encouragingly once again. He also didn't jump very well, losing plenty of ground at numerous fences but he travelled like a horse who still had his ability intact and could be one to side with at fancy prices in the coming months. This was obviously not the result I was looking for but he'll be dropping in the ratings again and could pop up sometime. -4.00pts on the day. 12:35 Aintree - Wyse Hill Teabags - 3pts @ 9/2 (Boyles, Ladbrokes) Jim Goldie is a man that I can rarely catch right but Wyse Hill Teabags is an exceptionally consistent animal and looks worthy of support in this contest despite hopping up another 3lbs for running such a gallant race last time out. On that occasion, over this 2m 4f trip at Haydock, Goldie's lightly-raced 6-year-old ran a cracking race to finish half-a-length behind the classy Any Given Day. My selection didn't exactly set the world alight with his jumping early on in that contest but he kept on very well under pressure and put in another career-best performance. Wyse Hill Teabags was having his first outing of the season that day, so race-fitness should be improved for having had the run and if it is, he's very capable of running well here despite a 3lb rise in the weights. Today's track holds no issues either for this talented performer, as he finished a slightly unlucky 3rd of 22 in a valuable Listed handicap when rated 6lbs lower on his final start of last season. I also think that today's race will be run a lot more to suit and if all is well, he should be getting involved under the guidance of his regular jockey Richie McGrath. The ground should also prove to be ideal and overall, 9/2 looks a bit big for one who's still on an upward curve. There's no reason why he shouldn't run well and I'll play a medium sized win stake on him doing the business. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1:25 Sandown - The Betchworth Kid - 1pt @ 22/1 (Bet365) It's impossible to know what version of The Betchworth Kid will turn up for this exceptionally competitive contest but Alan King's 6-year-old gelding looks well worth an attempt at this sort of trip again (last 3 hurdle outings came over just shy of 2m 1f; tackles 2m 6f today) and he could be up to causing a bit of a shock. This quirky campaigner only has a single hurdle win to his name in 9 attempts but he has more than enough ability to pop up in a good race some day and he's one that I want to keep on side for sure, especially when he's getting conditions to suit. The Betchworth Kid was a Listed winner on the flat this year and went on to run a few decent races in that code afterwards. He made his seasonal hurdling bow in the extremely tough Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham when last seen and although he was never sighted, he was staying on well up the run-in, shaping as if the return to further would be no bad thing. I can't really get my head around the horse at all but he's potentially on a decent mark and should have no problems with today's conditions. It all depends on how he is mentally and if he's on his game, 22/1 is a big price. If he's not, the likelihood is that he'll tail-off in no time. Still, he's worth having a minimal bet on just in case he does pop up. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:10 Aintree - West End Rocker - 2pts @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) The chances of finding the winner of this race are quite slim but I'm sure that West End Rocker has a lot more to give the chasing game despite the fact that he's bordering on 10-years-old at this stage and all going well, he should have a say in proceedings here. Alan King's charge comes here on the back of a very disappointing reappearance run at Cheltenham but he jumped so poorly that I have to overlook the performance and blame it on the track. He's usually a lot better than that and it's an effort that we're better off ignoring completely. West End Rocker should strip fitter for having had the outing though and the return to a flat, galloping track will help to see him in a much better light. He was also jumping excellently before being brought down in the Grand National in April and there's every reason to believe that he can give his best at this course. The 3m 2f trip is also right up his street and the ground is fine too, so there should be no excuses with regards to conditions. He comes here as a decently handicapped horse off a mark of 137, just 4lbs above his last victory, and the way in which he can travel throughout his races always gives him a chance of finding even further improvement. Alan King's horses were needing the run when West End Rocker lined out at Cheltenham and the yard are going so much better nowadays, with 6 winners coming in the past fortnight. He's also coming down here with just the one runner and this race is going to decide the future engagements of the horse, as he'll be aimed for the Grand National once again if he shows up well. Wayne Hutchinson is back in the saddle and he's 3 from 4 on board this fellow, which is obviously impressive as he's the only jockey to win with him over fences. If he can get the horse into a nice rhythm as he has done on a few occasions before, I'm very hopeful that he'll run a big race and as a result, 14/1 looks a bit too big. It's an awful race to try and solve though, so it's small/medium stakes for me and I'll just have to hope for the best. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3:20 Aintree - Fine Parchment - 2pts @ 14/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes) Another competitive race in which it's too hard to be confident about anything. Fine Parchment is the one I'm going to side with though, as I'm sure that this often beautiful jumper has the ability to run a big race despite having to carry top-weight. Charlie Mann's progressive 8-year-old comes here on the back of a modest 9th placed finish in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham last time out, in which he was beaten by quite a long way under his 5lb claiming jockey. It's definitely not form to judge him on and the return to this type of track against lesser opposition should suit, although his only run over the National fences ended in him unseating his rider at the sixth fence. Fine Parchment made an ultra-encouraging return to action this season when running a fine 2nd on the other course at this track in October and if he's in similar form here, there's a good chance that he'll run a big race despite being 3lbs higher in the ratings. Mann's charge travelled like the best horse in the race off top-weight and jumped like a dream before he seemed to blow up coming to the final fence. He tried very hard to reel in the winner but just couldn't manage it and was eventually beaten by a little over a couple of lengths. It does rate as a career-best run though and with the market vibes suggesting that Fine Parchment was in need of the outing (wasn't wearing usual tongue-tie either; is today), his progression may not be finished with yet. Everything about today's race should suit, as they'll go hard up top and the ability to jump and travel well should come into play. Whether he can defy top-weight on this testing ground is another thing but he's a sizable horse who may well be at his best when carrying bigger weights against inferior opposition. Regardless, the 14/1 price-tag about him outweighs the risk and he's another for small/medium win stakes. All going well, he should have a say in proceedings if his jumping holds up.

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