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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Cheers guys, really appreciate all of the comments. :clap Hopefully all of us continue to beat the layers. :hope ------------------------------------------------ Temple Lord looked set to score yesterday (hit 1.17 in-running) when seemingly handed the race on a plate after the horse who was going to win made a very bad blunder. However, the winner of last years running of this race came out of the clouds to nail my selection in the closing stages and that was that. It was a very promising run though, as he jumped and travelled well throughout, even though he was fortunate to be in with a chance of winning at any stage. Can't complain, but it would have been nice if he won! -3.00pts on the day. 3:30 Carlisle - Mr Woods - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes) Mr Woods has only managed to complete the race on 1 of his last 8 outings but as a result he has dropped to a handicap mark of 105 (down 22lbs from peak chase rating), and that's very attractive with useful conditional Gary Rutherford taking off a further 7lbs. The main reason why the Harriet Graham trained 9-year-old has run so poorly is down to racing on soft, and often heavy, ground. He is a good ground horse and although today's ground will have a little bit of ease in it, that shouldn't be too much of an issue. He also goes well at the track when getting his conditions, as he won a chase here when rated 124 and has finished 2nd at the track on no fewer than 4 occasions - all from just 9 outings. It's also a positive that Mr Woods is dropping into a Class 4 Handicap for the first time ever, as I feel he was biting off more than he could chew on his recent outings, regardless of the ground. He's so well-handicapped nowadays that if he can put it all in victory will await. There's a lot more to it than that but with conditions being more suitable, he's worthy of support at 20/1. I'd rate 10/1 as being a fair price for him in this company (could make claims for him being shorter, despite recent form), so small/medium each-way stakes will be played. Hopefully he'll go well and run into a place at least. It's a risky one though, so God knows what'll happen!

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Mr Woods was well-backed before the off, eventually going off as a 10/1 shot (backed at 20's). However, having jumped well and travelled into contention still going well within himself, he made a slight mistake 5 out and then pecked just after landing, at which point he parted company with his jockey. The eventual winner won very easily but my selection was going as well as anything when his race was cut short and I think he would have made a good race of it at the very least. He almost certainly would have run into a place and it's very unfortunate that he came to grief once again, as that was the first time he had his ground in quite a while. He remains one to be very interested in if the ground is no worse than good-to-soft over the coming months and he'll eventually get his just deserts and I intend to be on, hopefully at a fancy price again. Quite gutted about how that all panned out but that's racing and there'll be plenty more of those I'm sure. -3.00pts on the day. Early one for tomorrow. May have one more tomorrow morning, going to sleep on it! 2:30 Sedgefield - Night In Milan - 3pts @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) Night In Milan comes here on the back of being off the track since March and although fitness has to be taken completely on trust, as does his ability to actually jump a fence, he looks worthy of support on his chasing debut. Keith Reveley's lightly-raced 5-year-old could prove to be a class above this modest field if he's ready to go and hopefully he will be. In a busy spell over hurdles between November 2010 and March of this year, this fellow lined out on 8 occasions, winning twice in handicaps off marks of 90 & 100. He would of also landed another race (over C&D) if it wasn't for such a poor ride from some conditional jockey that I've never heard of. After his final win over hurdles, achieved over today's 2m 4f trip at the stiff Newcastle track, Reveley's charge was very well supported in a pair of Class 3 Handicaps off marks of 112 & 110. On both occasions, he finished well back in the field but given the fact that he was running on heavy (over 2m) and soft ground (over 3m), something that doesn't seem to suit him at all (won despite the ground previously), they're easily forgiven. I also think there was a couple of other excuses and I'm happy enough to write them off completely, as he's better than that. Night In Milan gets a much sounder surface today on his return from a break and that should prove to be ideal, along with the trip at this undulating, speedy track. The fences are very easy here, so it looks like a good place to start him out and he really looks like the type who should excel in this code. Given how fancied he was in the market when running off higher marks over hurdles, connections must think he's capable of a lot better than he has shown to date and I feel today's rating of 107 could be very workable to say the least. The yard are also in good form and do well here (7-41), as does his regular jockey James Reveley (15-81), who's on board today. 4/1 looks like a very big price to me and I'll play medium win stakes, even though I'm tempted to put even more on. Plenty of risk and guesswork involved but he looked like he could make into a very nice handicap hurdler and he should prove to be an even better chaser in time. Hopefully he'll start it all off with a nice win here.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) More disappointment yesterday as Night In Milan became the third selection from my last four to finish in 2nd place. He was very strong in the market, eventually halving in price to go off as the 2/1 favourite but his jumping wasn't great at all and that's the main reason he lost. It also wasn't ideal to be held up on the wide outside on the field and overall he did quite well to get within half-a-length of the winner in the end. I can't complain though as it was a very good run for him on his first outing for a long time. He'll come on a fair bit for the experience I'd imagine and he'll be of interest again if he's a decent price. -3.00pts on the day. 3:00 Southwell - Douze Points - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (WillHill) Douze Points is hardly the most trustworthy character out there and for a horse who has plenty of ability on his day, it's quite disappointing that he has only managed to be victorious in 1 of his 34 career outings (placed a further 11 times). He's a real in-and-out sort of horse and although he ran no sort of race when tailed off over this 1 mile trip at Kempton last time out, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run a lot better here. He now runs on fibresand for the first time and it's a surface he shouldn't have a problem with, as his half-brother was a maiden winner around here and he goes on softer ground. The race should be run to suit him and he's dropped to a career-low handicap mark of 71, so if he's ever going to come in at a massive price it may be now. Overall, he'll either tail-off or run a cracker and I'll play small each-way stakes in the hope that it's the latter. It's very tough to be confident about anything in this race but the market leaders don't really appeal and it may pay to side with a larger priced runner. Pat Murphy's charge is the outsider of the field but he's too well-handicapped to ignore in a race like this, regardless of his recent form. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4:00 Southwell - Punching - 2pts @ 4/1 (Boyles, Ladbrokes, WillHill) Punching is getting on in years now and he holds no secrets with the handicapper but he shaped very well when doing best of the trio of runners that raced up the stands' side at Yarmouth last time out and given that the race was run on soft ground over 5f, that effort can be marked up (he's not a 5f horse). Conor Dore, who trains this lively 7-year-old, now decides to step his charge back up to 6f and he now returns to the scene of his last 7 career wins, yet another positive. In 16 C&D runs, this fellow has never finished out of the first 4 and he managed to land the spoils no fewer than 6 times. He's now 4lbs lower than his last handicap win here, achieved in January of this year when scoring quite easily in a similar contest. All going well, Dore's charge should go very close under the guidance of Kirsty Milczarek (on board last time out) and 4/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll go well.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Cheers Aidy. ----------------- Having an early one for tomorrow and I'd be surprised if he's this price before the off - even though the trip is a bit of a worry (plus the fact that it's an apprentice race at Southwell; good jockey on board though) and it's the main reason I'm not playing bigger stakes. He's still worth a shot given the price. 12:50 Southwell - Takajan - 2pts @ 14/1 (Bet365) Back with reasoning in the morning and more bets if I can find any.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Punching got me back to winning ways with an exceptionally game performance at Southwell yesterday. Having been headed a furlong from home when looking tired, he stuck to the task so very gamely to get back up in the final 50 yards and land a 2 point bet at 13/2 in the process. He could still be interesting after a rise in the weights but I doubt I'll be on board again any time soon. The other selection, Douze Points, was very poor and the writing was on the wall after a few strides. For a horse who has ability, it's a pity to see him so badly out of form. He's very well handicapped if connections can spark a revival but he's one to ignore from now on. The plan to take on the market leaders and back an outsider was a good one, it's just a pity I had the wrong horse! The eventual winner was a horse that I backed numerous times (without success) and he scooted in at 25/1. +11.00pts on a very welcomed day. Can't find any more so it's just a single dart for today. 12:50 Southwell - Takajan - 2pts @ 14/1 (Bet365) Takajan should prove to be a very lively contender in this contest if putting his best foot forward and given how he performed at Wolverhampton last twice (travelled very well last time out; given too much to do but ran on well the time before), there's reason to believe that a return to winning ways isn't too far off. Mark Brisbourne's heavily campaigned 4-year-old looks thoroughly exposed having lined out on 37 occasions throughout his short career but to be fair to him, he's not overly exposed if you just take his fibresand form into account. In a total of 13 outings at Southwell, this fellow has won 3 times and placed on another 4 of his course runs. The wins came off marks of 54, 61 & 65, the last mentioned coming in February of this year (when I backed him!). Whilst Takajan hasn't been in great form since that win, bar a couple of runs, he now returns to Southwell for the first time in a long time and gets the run off a mark of 60, a full 8lbs lower than the last time he lined out. He's also dropping back into Class 6 company and this is a level he can most certainly compete at (last 2 wins came in C5 H'caps). The worry has to be his ability to see out the 7f trip, as he's predominantly a 6f horse (all wins over that distance) but he had little problem with a mile around here last year (albeit in a maiden & a claimer) and he should be able to see it out. One of Takajan's most impressive performance was when winning off 1lb higher over 6f here when the course was putting more of an emphasis on stamina and he was never stronger than in the closing stages that day, so the extra furlong could well bring out further improvement (this is only the second time he goes past 6f at Southwell for current connections). The yard are in decent knick and boast a fine record in this sort of race (31-184; 17% strike-rate, +61.38 LSP). His jockey for today, Jack Duern, looks very decent for a claimer lacking in experience and he's 2-6 for the yard (4-27 in apprentice races overall). All going well, this fellow should run a big race and the 14/1 taken last night (10p R4 now) was a very good price. He's still 9's in a place and that's still an acceptable price I feel. Small/medium win stakes for me and hopefully he'll run a big race. If he stays, he'll be there or thereabouts.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Takajan was well-supported throughout the day (went as low as 5/1 in places; Hugh Taylor related) but he drifted in the market before the off and ran accordingly. His jockey reined him back, to hold him up in rear, straight after they broke away and that's not the best thing to happen with a horse who needs to race prominently. The track is also massively favouring those on the front end and in all likelihood, he just wasn't supposed to have his day. It's coming soon though, and I intend to be on board, hopefully at a nice price. Disappointing effort but the couple of points lost will be coming back, I'm quite sure. -2.00pts on the day. A couple of early selections for the jumps action. If I've anything for the all-weather, I'll be posting them in the morning. 1:10 Cheltenham - Sound Stage - 1pt @ 16/1 (PaddyPower) *NON-RUNNER* The last 75 runners that Caroline Keevil has sent out to race have all come back defeated and although that's hardly inspiring at all, if we just concentrate on her chasers, that losing streak drops down to 15. I'm not going to pretend to know much about her at all but it's clear as day that she can train 'em to go over fences, as, from 97 runners in that code, she has managed to get 17 winners and 25 places, which is mightily impressive to say the least. Today, the unexposed Sound Stage bids to break that long losing run in an amateur riders' chase and he could go very well off a mark of 128. He's a nice jumper and an exceptionally strong traveller when on song, so the likely strong pace is going to suit. He also has course form having won and placed here over fences, the latter when coming a 9-length 2nd to Midnight Chase (then rated 125!) off a 3lb lower mark. He also pulled a long way clear of the rest, just finding the exceptionally talented and progressive course specialist that bit too good. Keevil's charge performed quite badly on reappearance three weeks ago but that was over hurdles and he was said to look badly in need of the outing. He travelled well for a long time but didn't jump fluently over the smaller obstacles and wasn't given a hard time once it became apparent that he wasn't going to get involved. With that effort being likely to bring him on quite a lot (was carrying an awful lot of condition) and the return to fences being a massive plus for a born chaser, I think he's more than up to running well here. I know absolutely nothing about the jockey that's on board today but he takes 7lbs off his mounts back and the trainer said he has been working for her at home, so hopefully he's got the know-how to guide this fellow to his third chase victory at the eight attempt (other 5 runs were placed efforts). It's a wide-open contest but the often smooth-travelling Sound Stage looks capable of further improvement in this code and should run a decent race if all goes well. Small win bet for me and hopefully he'll get involved. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1:45 Cheltenham - Tanks For That - 2pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, WillHill) Another tough race to call but Tanks For That looks capable of giving Nicky Henderson his third win in as many years in this 2 mile handicap. This relatively unexposed 8-year-old will have to overcome having not raced since April but he ran his best race first time up last season and could do so again. On that occasion, Henderson's charge only found the impressive Woolcombe Folly too good in what was a very competitive contest at this course over half-a-furlong further. Whilst Tanks For That will have more on his plate to win from today's 5lb higher mark, it's quite possible that there's still more to come from a horse who surely hasn't reached his peak yet. Overall, he's not exposed in this code, but he's exceptionally unexposed when getting what I'd consider to be his ideal race conditions. With a truly run 2 miles at a track like this being right up his street, he could yet have a win in him off his current rating of 140 and today may just be the day he does that if being fresh brings out the best in him again. Ground conditions are also spot on. Nicky Henderson's yard are going great guns of late with a total of 8 winners from 22 runners in the past fortnight and although he has some very talented animals that should be winning their races, it's always good to see a yard being in such rude health. Henderson runs another animal in this race, but he looks weighted to the hilt and Barry Geraghty fancies being on board Tanks For That, which is another positive sign. He has only been on board for 4 of the horses chase outings, 2 of which ended up in placed efforts. Hopefully the pair can go even better here today and 9/1 looks like a decent price about that happening. Crack Away Jack could rout the field if Nicholls works his magic with the formerly high-class hurdler but 7/2 isn't a price I'd take about him given his recent profile. Henderson said he's hopeful of his charge running very well again and small/medium win stakes will do me in a tricky contest.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) This might explain why Sound Stage was so poor last time out (along with needing it).

Poor Sound Stage was held up on the way to Aintree by a crash on the M6. The journey took 6½ hours and although he is a good traveller' date=' the extended journey, plus not having enough time to recover from the journey before his race, meant he ran no race at all. Luckily he was unscathed and is back bouncing again already.[/quote']
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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+205pts) Tanks For That provided me with a more than welcome National Hunt winner when scoring nicely at Cheltenham yesterday, once again showing his ability to run so well when fresh. Nicky Henderson's well-backed 8-year-old cruised throughout, jumped wonderfully in the main and asserted his authority with a supreme leap at the final fence. The rise in the weights that he'll face will be enough to make me leave him alone for a while but it was a great performance from him and he landed a 2pt bet at 9/1 for me in the process. Happy out! +18.00pts on the day. 1:55 Cheltenham Galaxy Rock - 1.50pts @ 8/1 (WillHill) Hennessy - 1.50pts @ 11/1 (Boylesports) I rarely bother doing this but I'm going to side with a couple here in this 3m 3½f Chase. Galaxy Rock is the first one of interest, as he looks to be open to plenty of improvement over fences and Jonjo O'Neill's 7-year-old should be up to eventually defying a mark of 135 in this code (hopefully today) - although he is 11lbs higher than when last seen over fences. The rise in the weights is as a result of scoring by an easy 14 lengths over a furlong further at this track and despite the fact that it wasn't a brilliant race, it showcased the horses ability to perform so effectively over this sort of distance. With ground conditions to suit, race fitness being improved by a recent outing over hurdles (shaped encouragingly) and improvement to come on what is just start number seven over fences, O'Neill's charge looks sure to run a good race under Tony McCoy (who won his last 3 chase starts on board this fellow). 8/1 is a decent price about a horse who surely has more to give this game and I'll play small win stakes on him doing the business. The Ferdy Murphy trained Hennessy is very interesting, as despite the fact that he's nearly an 11-year-old at this stage, he remains a very lightly-raced performer over fences. He was out of action for 2½ years before making an eye-catching reappearance on his first start for this yard at Kelso nearly a month ago and with that race being completely unsatisfactory for him, I feel it was a performance that showed he still retained plenty of his old abilities. Murphy's runners also seemed to be in dire need of their outings (yard going much better now) and his trainer reported that he hadn't even galloped him before his debut, so an improvement in race-fitness is pretty much assured. A mark of 125 is not insurmountable at all for this previous Grade 3 winner and he should get a race run to suit here. The main worry is that he may be in need of further than this trip to win a race of this nature but at a price-tag of 11/1, I'll have a small win bet on him. He's very talented if it all comes together and there's a chance it could today. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:35 Cheltenham - The Giant Bolster - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365, Gen) Backing horses with obvious jumping flaws isn't a great idea and The Giant Bolster certainly fits into that category, as David Bridgewater's 6-year-old chaser hasn't managed to complete on 3 of his 5 career starts over fences to date. However, he won impressively on both occasions when he did get around and with another summer under his belt, those jumping issues will hopefully be ironed out. Whether they are or not is another thing but his trainer says he's a better horse this year, physically stronger and also exceptionally well in himself at the moment. As a result of the highly-rated top-weight in this race, The Giant Bolster gets to line up under a lovely racing weight of 10-2 in this 20-runner handicap and he's part of the group who aren't running outside the handicap, which is a help. A rating of 146 will have to be defied in order for him to win this race but I'm sure that he's capable of being much better once he learns to jump properly. One of the times he managed to complete over fences was when winning off top-weight (rated 140) over a half-furlong further at this track in a novices' handicap and given that the ground was bound to be softer than is ideal for him (although he handles a bit of give), I suspect that performance is much better than the bare figures. The Giant Bolster should be ideally suited by the decent ground today and if his jumping comes together, 12/1 will look like a big price after the race I'm sure. He's got a brilliant engine, travels well and stays all day, so this test should be right up his street. He comes here race-fit after a very satisfactory reappearance in first-time cheekpieces over hurdles at Chepstow and they're on again here (may well help keep his mind on jumping correctly). It really is an awful race to get to grips with but I'm more than happy to take on the short-priced favourite and David Bridgewater's charge could prove to be the right one to oppose him with. Small/medium win stakes and hopefully he'll go well. If he jumps well, he'll be there or thereabouts at the finish. If he makes his now customary mistakes, he'll probably fall or unseat, again. It's a massive risk, but one worth taking.

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Sanity Maintained (+226pts) Found one more for the all-weather. Keeping it brief. 2:50 Lingfield - Five Star Junior - 2pts @ 12/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes) Five Star Junior has work to do on official ratings with plenty of the field but he comes here on the back of a cracking effort when last seen running at Dundalk in Ireland a couple of weeks ago. He was exceptionally well-backed before the off, moving from 6/1 into 11/4 in the final ten minutes of betting but the money went astray as he could only manage a half-length 3rd of 14. I feel the effort can be market up significantly given how much ground he had to make up in the closing stages (seemed hard to get into it from off the pace) and the return to this track should be more in his favour. Over C&D, Linda Stubbs' charge has won 3 times from 8 outings with a further 3 of those efforts ending in places. He loves it around here and the trainers' husband reported that he's "in A1 condition and seems in the same form as he was before he went to Ireland where he ran a cracker" and that "we would be disappointed if he didn't run well". Five Star Junior could also come on for that run, as it was on the back of a near 2 month lay-off. Regardless, that run rates as a career-best effort for this speedy 5-year-old and with plenty being in his favour at this track, he looks worth chancing despite the fact the he's up in grade to tackle a Listed class contest for the first time since finishing a 1¼ length 4th of 10 at this track over 5f (he's definitely a 6f horse at this sort of track). Shane Kelly rides and gets on well with the horse, so a small/medium win bet will do no harm.

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