Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 November Figures: Bets: 103 Staked: 367.5 P/L: +53.8 Yield: +14.64%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.30 Fairyhouse - China Rock 1.75pts e/w 14/1 VC I quite like this horse tomorrow. His 4th in the Ballymore looks pretty strong form. Knockara Beau in 5th has looked a decent chaser winning twice and finishing 2nd at Cheltenham. Diamond Harry romped home off top weight over hurdles. Karabak chased home the impressive Zaynar over shorter than ideal trip. It's a very competitive race, but my selection has shown ability and has been improving over fences. Beat Alpha Ridge last time and I see no reason why he won't do it again. The latter is a 3 miler and I am not willing to back him at 5/1 over this trip. You have Ruby on board and the price is ridiculously low because of that. Last time out China Rock raced over inadequate 2 miles and I think he did quite well to finish just 8L behind Sizing Europe. After three races over fences he has enough experience now and this is the race connections probably had in mind as early season target. I think there are few horses here (Alpha Ridge and Whatuthink) who are more suited to 3 miles. Pandorama may also be a 3 miler and jumped alarmingy to the left last time. Jered won well over 2m4f, but it was a weak race. I am not entirely sure he stays 2m4f on soft. Pesoto is an uknown. Roberto Goldback would have probably beaten Osana with a better last jump, so he can also run a race at a nice price. 14/1 for China Rock seems value to me though. Strong hurdling form 4th in the Ballymore. He also has a 4th place at Punchestown and a close 1L defeat to Go Native as a novice last season. The same Go Native who beat Binocular today and is the Supreme Novices winner.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.05 Carlisle - Double Eagle 2.5pts e/w 4/1 This one has some really cracking form from the few races he's had up to now. 2nd to Ablertas Run in G2 novices handicap. 3rd to Tial Bay in a novice chase. And a 25L bashing of Endless Power, who won at the Aintree festival in 2008 and took the Grand Sefton last season. It's clear that his future lies over fences, but yard is on fire and it seems to me they want to exploit his hurdling mark first (races off only 115 today compared to rating 141 over fences). All his wins are on soft and heavy including a bumper win here over today's distance and novice hurdle again here at Carlisle. So with conditions to suit and yard on fire, I think he is a very decent e/w bet to nothing at the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.30 Carlisle - Himalayan Trail 1pt to win 8/1 1pt to place 2.92 Backed this one for the National when he wasn't unbacked. Midlands National winner last year and will stay the trip well. Maybe needs a bit better ground and 4 miles, but he ran well for a long way last time on soft and back to Sue Smith's yard is probably what he needed, because he didn't do well with the irish exploits last seaosn. The last two wins are with this trainer. Worth a small e/w interest.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.20 Fakenham - I'moncloudnine 3pts to win 9/4 Scored in quite emphatic style last time and 7lb penalty may not be enough to stop him. Trainer reports the horse has come out of his last race "exceptionally well". Dougie Costello is 2 from 2 on him. Vaughan and Henderson horses in the race means we get a nice value. The former just came from Peter Bowen and it may take some time for the young trainer to improve him. Not to mention everything of Vaughan's is running pretty badly at the moment. Strawberry is also a new horse in the Henderson yard and ran well for a long way at Cheltenham. She'll come on for the run, but she usually needs few races to come good and seems handicapped to her best. Hard task for the mare to win off top weight here imo. Cool Roxy is exposed and will rin his usual race, but needs a weaker field to be competitive. This race seems a tough task. I'moncloudnine is young and progressive and is 4 ftom 6 over fences including a win here, so he handles this interesting course well. Stayed the distance well lto too and I make him a 7/4 chance.

[fintron]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

November Figures: Bets: 103 Staked: 367.5 P/L: +53.8 Yield: +14.64%

Nice work indeed :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

Nice work indeed :clap

Thanks, Fin. Been a good month despite lots of fallers :)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.00 Folkestone - Mr Big 4pts to win 4/1 I was so impressed by this horse at Cheltenham in the Cross Country Chase two weeks ago. Ran with the pace set by Heads Onthe Ground and followed by Sizing Australia. Despite those two rated better than him, he had to carry more weight (I still need to figure out how the irish and uk ratings exactly work). A 10L defeat to Garde Champetre in 4th is not a bad effort at all and it seems to me he has progressed well during the summer. Good efforts last spring winning off 101 and placed twice off 110. Raised to 116 after the run in the Cross Country, but Peter Toole will claim 5 pounds, so I expect a bold show today. It will be a test of stamina on the ground and he'll stay the 3 miles well. Yard is in form and the selection is 1 from 1 on the track, so imo he has to be favorite in this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.20 Fakenham - Pipe Banner 2.5pts e/w 5/2 Has been running well in bumpers and can improve for step up in trip on soft and hurdling. Has to be a good sort when the queen owns him and I expect a decent showing. The Charlie Mann horse is a danger, but is now 9 and I'm not sure he can cope with the improvement of this Henderson youngster.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.00 Folkestone - Colline de Fleurs 1.5pts to win 7/1 1.5pts to place 2.55 Trainer has been doing well recently and most of his horses first time out for the season have been running some good races. This mare is very well treated on the form two seasons ago and money coming in from last night are usually very positive for this yard. She has run well after long absences before, so I'm qutie hopeful she can run a big race here. It's not a very strong field.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Double Eagle -0.5 Himalayan Trail +0.82 I'moncloudnine -3 Mr Big -4 Pipe Banner +7.5 Colline de Fleurs +0.71

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Been a good month despite quite a few fallers. Most notably Riguez Dancer in a beginners chase, who really didn't have much to beat and the odds on Johnson horse was beaten by Ferdy Murphy's 2nd string returning at massive odds. Cartier Opera very expensive with his shaky jumping, twice cost me money. The biggest disappointment of all was the Grand Sefton, where my selections were both 16/1 and fell at the 2nd and 3rd respectively in a race, which didn't take much winning in the end. Biggest returns were firstly the 50/1 2nd on Haka Dancer and this wasn't a bad result, but if he was ridden by a claimer he would have probably won, because he raced 4lbs outside the handicap that day. Inventor was the biggest priced winner of the thread returning at 18/1, but Denman was the biggest return overall with a strong 5.5pts e/w at 6/1 antepost. Looking forward to December now with some really nice meetings ahead. A Tingle Creek antepost bet to follow later tonight. Current Figures: Bets: 162 Staked: 512.5 P/L: +81.64 Yield: +15.93% October: +26.31 (Yield: +19.78%) November: +55.33 (Yield: +14.30%)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Tingle Creek Chase 1.75pts e/w Barker 14/1 A very progressive horse, who thumped Forpadydeplasterer by 15L at Punchestown. Yet the Arkle winner is 8/1 and my selection is 14/1. Money already coming in for Barker and that's very positive. He should have improved a lot during the summer and with the absence of Master Minded, he has a very lively e/w chance. Even if he finds one or two better than him at this stage, he's overpriced and I can see him starting single figures on the day. Champion Chase 2010 6pts to win Barker 18/1 This price won't be available in March whatever happends at Sandown, but hopefully he'll run well in the Tingle Creek and I'll be able to lay a bit on Saturday.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 China Rock not running tomorrow. The 14/1 wasn't at all bad for the weekend before it was abandoned. Bloody weather.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.20 Fairyhouse - Mr Warbucks 1.5pts to win 12/1 1.5pts to place 3.63 Jumped really well last time and beat Whatuthink nicely. Despite claimer offesting the 3lbs and margin of the win only 1L win, I can see him confirming the form. Trip and ground will suit and the horse will improve for the experience.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.25 Ayr - Impact Zone 4pts to win 3/1 After 5 wins from 7 in point to points I can see this horse being very well treated off just 84 back hurdling. Trainer is on form and talented Ollie Greenall takes 3lbs off. Very strong favorite imo here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 12.10 Catterick - I'm Your Man 1.5pts e/w 12/1 One could say the handicapper knows everything about I'm Your Man and one might be right, but the horse won off 93 over fences last month and finished 6th off 99 last time out. The race he won produced a winner from the horse in 4th. The race he finished 6th in last time produced 3 next time out winners. Back over hurdles racing off 90, I can see him running a sound race today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 12.40 Catterick - Yawl Springs 2pts e/w 5/1 Improved for a tongue tie chasing the smar Professor Higgins last time. Back over hurdles in a race, which doesn't look that strong on paper. With Rhys Flint taking 3lbs off he has his best chance for qutie some time.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.45 Catterick - Cornish Castle 0.75pts to win 230.0 0.75pts to place 19.0 Hasn't shown much over hurdles so far, but was winner on the flat over a mile. There's every chance he can improve on his previous 2 hurdling bows and is worth a small e/w bet imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Tingle Creek Chase 8pts to win Well Chief 4/1 Barker withdrawn is a big blow, because I really fancied him. Have taken earlier this week a bet on Well Chief too. I don't like Twist Magic in the mud and I don't like Big Zeb over the railway fences. Forpadydeplasterer may not even come and from the others I only see danger for the places, while the old boy is playing for the win and at the prices is value for me.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Triumph Hurdle 2010 3.5pts e/w Alaivan 14/1 VC (4 places) I am hearing very good reports about this ex J Oxx horse. Now with Ed O'Grady and runs this weekend. Along with Mille Chief and Zaidpour is a big fancy for the race. I am playing all e/w, because only one would be enough to at least place, so I can get almost all my stakes back. Even if some other good 3yo comes from somewhere, all these three should be leading players in March. Champion Hurdle 2010 10pts to win Hurricane Fly 7.4 Betfair Kicked myself not backing him after his last win at Punchestown last year. Thankfully he flopped lto and got beat by Solwhit. This form is debetable though. Muirhead in 2nd tells the story. The real form is Hurricane beating everything in Ireland including Fighting Fifth and Supreme winner Go Native. He had his first summer on grass this year and has reportedly done well physically. What I like about him most is his hurdling technique. So slick and fast over the hurdles. Something all champion hurdlers have as early as their novice days. Trainer barely had done any work with him after he came to him, so there is no surprise of the defeat. Even Willie was saying this in interviews and warned the public not to back him at short odds.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.25 Market Rasen - Wingull 4pts to win 3/1 PP, VC 4pts to place 1.56 Betfair Ran into a very good handicapped horse last time, but beat the rest pretty well. The previous race he contested produced many winners. All the horses in the first four positions won races in their next outings and this is cracking form good enough to win this unless the Jim Best horse is another improver like Calzaghe and Canni Thinkanar. The latter beat my selection last time. Nomatter what, he should be able to be in the first three.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

Champion Hurdle 2010 1pt on Dunguib @ 46 Betfair

Layed this at 25, but rebacked the 1pt at 22. Nomatter what trianer says it's worth the 1pt on Dunguib if he actually lines up. He could well be a favorite if they decide to go this route.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.45 Wincanton - Wizard Of Edge 2.5pts to win 13/2 generally 2.5pts to place 1.95 Betfair Won this last year and races off nice feather weight today. The Pipe favorite ran a decent race last time and I was on him, but is way too short today and it's worth backing the bigger priced Hodges runner, who will like the conditions and is well capable of winning this race again.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.15 Wincanton - Mayeul 2pts to win 10/1 PP 2pts to place 3.50 Betfair A typical Pipe handicapper. Tried short trips to get his fitness spot on and get his mark lowered. Back to his preferred trip and favorite conditions. With jockey claiming further 3lbs I think he can run a big race here. Again looking to exploit an eventual flop from a penaltized short priced favorite.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Ryanair Chase 2010 Jack The Giant 1.5pts to win 135.0 I just found an article from Nicky Henderson from 2008 saying JTG is going for the Ryanair, which dispels my fears he can be a Queen Mum horse. Found also the RP article from two months ago: (Jack The Giant is back on active service, having been absent with a leg injury following his Ascot chase win in November. "Good ground is imperative for him, but he is capable of going to the top if all goes well," Henderson added.) Remembering how he pissed the Ascot race rated 151 by 11L winning margin, he is well capable of giving Voy Por's and Albertas Run's a race. Rated around 160 he is just few lbs away from the top horses in the 2m4f division. The 20/1 at bookies is just about justified, but hopefully I should be able to exploit the betfair fish trying to lay at stupid prices. That's only if they don't know more than me and actually he hasn't had a new setback I don't know about :)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

3.15 Wincanton - Mayeul 2pts to win 10/1 PP 2pts to place 3.50 Betfair A typical Pipe handicapper. Tried short trips to get his fitness spot on and get his mark lowered. Back to his preferred trip and favorite conditions. With jockey claiming further 3lbs I think he can run a big race here. Again looking to exploit an eventual flop from a penaltized short priced favorite.

Well done on the place there mate :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

Well done on the place there mate :ok

:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.10 Exeter - Zimbabwe 1pt e/w 28/1 Despite being outside of the handicap, the feather weight he'll carry will be a big plus. His jockey will claim 7 pounds, so my selection is just about ok in the weights. The race is a bit better than those he has been running in recently, but the one thing that I like here is his course form. He is the only course winner in the field and at Exeter this is really important. The other thing I like is the 4 miles trip, because anything around the 3 is too short for him. Add to this the trainer's form with a winner and a second from his last four, and there has to be a point e/w on this fella. Used to be a lot better few seasons ago, so I am gonna give him a chance for a revival today. Today's combination of marathon trip, stiff track, course form and trainer form deserves a small e/w bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.35 Sandown - Kicks For Free 4pts to win 3/1 Return on a right handed track and step up in trip will suit this horse and in a four runner race, the price is not bad at all. He has 3 wins from 3 at Huntingdon and a win and a place from 2 at Kempton, so Sandown will definitely suit. I expect a great deal of improvement now over 3 and I also like AP on board. Getting 5lbs from Tatenen and stamina questions about Seven Is My Number might just be enough. Jaune would probably need the run.