Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.05 Down Royal Go Native/Voler La Vedette The improving Voler La Vedette has had a bit of support and was around 5/2 on Betfair last night, but has dropped under 2/1. She is improving and with the weight allowence I can see people willing to take the fav on. Go Native is a leading Champion Hurdle contender though. Had a prep race winning it without any trouble whatsoever. With front runners in the race and strong pace he will get a nice gallop and I expect him to win under a typical Carberry hold up ride. Travels well in his races and after his preparation I expect him to be spot on today. Penalty may not be enough to stop him and he should be able to beat VLV in the home straight. Luska Lad is a promising novice, but this is a tough task. 1pt straight fc 1pt tote exacta

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 -2 +9 -2 +0.25 +12.59 -2 Two straight forecasts with the 1,2 picked right, but in the wrong order. Mister Wotzisname ran a good race, but just faded in the end. Traded at 1.20 in running. Its Teescomponents given not the best of rides by the young jockey today. Horse can stay 3m and he was still pulling him up giving the leaders enormous distance. Finished like a train to grab a place. The Hollinwell and Never So Blue both very nice winners. I would expect a few picks in the weeks ahead from both Fredy Murphy and Venetia Williams with their yards starting to hit form. November Figures: Bets: 16 Staked: 63.24 P/L: +13.61 Yield: 21.52%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

3.00 Wincanton - Bowleaze I like these staying handicaps a lot. Tend to back unexposed types, who are potentially well in the weights and stay the trip. Sometimes it's good to back a more exposed type though. Someone sure to run his race and be thereabouts when few others are not that ready yet with season just starting. Monet's Garden proved yesterday that when the track suits and the horse is fit and ready, then he can win even if handicapped to his best. Same could be said for my selection. Always runs well this time of the year. 1st, 2nd in 2006. 2nd, 1st in 2007. Needed a prep run last year, but won his next race. And comes here today after a prep race at Chepstow. Was 2nd in the race 2 years ago just 4lbs lower. Won at Sandown 4lbs lower. I would have liked usual claimer to ride taking 7lbs off, but maybe it's for the better. He hit the front too early at Cheltenham and the horse was headed afterwards. Still ran a brilliant race to finish 4th. I think right handed galloping tracks suit him better though. Most of his good runs are at Sandown. Also has two 2nds and a win here at Wincanton from 5 attempts. Should run his race and Daryl Jackob is the right man not to go too early or too late for the post if his mount is travelling and has a chance. 1pt e/w 16/1 Boylesports bog

Runs today in the 3.25 Wincanton and it is a tougher race, but at the price on offer I had to have a bet. I think he can be in the shake up again and the yard is having winners and placed horses all over the tracks. Reading the thoughts of the trainers for the other runers, most of them run this as a prep race for Hennessy or whatsoever, so I think Bowleaze will run his usual race and could be in the mix again. 1pt e/w 28/1 Skybet

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.25 Kelso - Mister McGoldrick Probably not very wise to back him when he's drifting, but I think he will run a big race today. Sue Smith's yard is in great form and this favorite of mine has dropped to a handy mark of 145 and is ridden by a 5lbs claimer today, so he is very well handicapped for today and won his first race the previous two years. Howard Johnson's horse is shortening, but the yard had few jollies beaten in the last days and I will take him on. The Martin horse seems to like firmish ground and the cut may go against him. Palomar lost his way last year and has few questions to answer now. 2pts to win 5/1 BetInternet - bog 2pts to place 2.26 Betfair

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 12.50 Kelso - Josephine Malines Finished 2nd to a horse that went on to place in a listed event at Wetherby few weeks ago. Has been running well on the flat and in similar company over hurdles and can't see anything too dangerous in the race except the 2nd fav, who has been disappointing recently. Worthy favorite and form of this 2nd place last time looks good. 1.4pts to win Ladbrokes 4/1 (only managed 1.4pts before it shortened) 2.6pts to win VC 11/4

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.15 Wincanton - Whiteoak/Celestial Halo 1pt straight forecast These are the two horses that interest me here and at the weights I think Whiteoak will manage to win and beat Celestial Halo in 2nd, who as it seems isn't 100% for this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Hennessy Gold Cup Notre Pere 2pts to win 30.0 Betfair Fine after his fall today and trainer said he's now probably going for this race. With Denman there, he will be running off nice weight and must have a great chance.

[alexmac]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 I think he will need the ground to go in his favour, he needs cut in the ground. Saying that, 30.0 could be a MASSIVE price if he does turn up. Although I did read in the RP today that Denman is said to be back to his absolute best at home. The Hennessey is turning into a cracking looking race, as there is no doubt Notre Pere would have won in Ireland today had he not fallen...

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Yes mate, I know what you mean about the ground, but I think he will go there. He has won on good/y a Grade 1 novice chase. If it is soft I fancy him VERY VERY much. If not, then I'd still have him at this price. Trainer sounded very confident and was actually not that unhappy about today's fall at all. Had the feeling from listetning to him they fancy their chances a lot, so :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.30 Navan - Made In Taipan Was running a nice race when fell 2 out last time. 4th in the Arkle. Will love the mud and can put Big Zeb's jumping under pressure, who still seems to have issues with it. And because it's first run of the season for him, I'd take him on with the fit 2nd fav. 3pts to win 7/2 PP & Lads bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.30 Hereford - Cartier Opera Typical Venetia Williams improver. Won well this week and comes out quickly under a penalty. This is a very poor event and the horse showed enough to suggest he can follow up with another win. Mark of 78 seems low enough for what he showed few days ago. 5pts to win 7/4 Bet365, Tote, WH bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1:05 Quinola Des Obeaux @ SP 2:40 Morning Supreme @ SP 3:30 Catch Me @ SP 1:30 Cartier Opera @ SP 1:20 Mille Chief @ SP In a hurry, so no reasoning. All very strong favs for today. 0.25pts Canadian on Betfair at Betfair SP. 26 x 0.25pts -> 6.5pts staked.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 November Figures: Bets: 23 Staked: 88.74 P/L: +1.26 Yield: 1.42%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.20 Carlisle - Bedlam Boy 5/2 Best form over hurdles and these fences aren't the stiffest around, so I expect him to finally come good over the bigger jumps. Has shown promise and on his chasing debut he was absolutely enjoying himself before falling. Think he'll have his confidence back and win today. 1.55 Carlisle - Roll Along 5/6 Can't see any of the horses in the race will find 20lbs to beat Roll Along here. he has 1,1,1,1,1 form on his seasonal debuts and new trainer can improve him even further. 6th in the Gold Cup ain't bad. 2.15 Southwell - Hello Moscow 9/4 McCoy has great record for Jim Best and I like the price here. This race won't take much wining and AP can steer Helo Moscow home. Other two dangers have questions to answer. 2.45 Southwell - Otto Quercus 10/3 Market support for this fella is interesting. Backed from 8s into 3s on Betfair. Contested a hot race at Chepstow and this is much easier. Has winning form in France and Brennan is not at Carlisle to ride Roll Along. 3.50 Southwell - Chapel Flowers 6/4 Reminds of Little Shilling from last year. Won very easily 2 recent chases and nothing in this to suggest that can give him a race over this hurdling bow. odds quoted @ Victor Chandler Canadian 26x0.1pts -> 2.6pts - best odds guaranteed And Betfair at SP. Canadian 26ptsx0.054pts >> 1.4pts @ Betfair SP Total Stake 4pts.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.55 Carlisle - Roll Along 10pts to win 11/10 Bet365 bog Second banker of the season after Tamarinbleu. Record fresh is magnificent and 3 stiff steep miles ideal here. Challengers need to find at least 15lbs to be anywhere near him in this race. New trainer in graet form and G Lee ideal for the style of running of Roll Along. Should be odds on imo. Beat Air Force One on his seasonal appearance last year.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.20 Carlisle - Bedlam Boy Best form over hurdles and these fences aren't the stiffest around, so I expect him to finally come good over the bigger jumps. Has shown promise and on his chasing debut he was absolutely enjoying himself before falling. Think he'll have his confidence back and win today. 3.26pts to win 11/4 bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.55 Carlisle - Storymaker 1pt e/w 13/2 Coral bog I like his chances today. Loves Carlisle and the soft ground. Trainer won a race few days ago and reports this horse in cracking form. I expect a bold show and the horse is still unexposed especially in these conditions. 3.30 Carlisle - Toy Gun 1pt e/w 9/2 Coral bog Won 2 here this time last year, but lost his way afterwards. Ran well on seasonal reappearance and finished 6th finishing well beating some tired horses. A lot of improvement is expected on this soft ground and it's not the best race out there, so he is definitely with a chance with conditions to suit. 0.5pt e/w double @ Coral bog 5pts staked

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 November Figures: Bets: 29 Staked: 111.0 P/L: -8.22 Yield: -7.40%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Ryanair Chase 2010 1pt to win Deep Purple @ 150.0 Betfair On the upgrade and has been improving gradually since last year. Took the Charlie Hall over 3m, but can't see him go for Gold Cup or anything over 3m on a course like Cheltenham. 2m5f will be ideal and if he keeps improving he can be a real player. The race as usual will be wide open affair and Voy Por Ustedes as a fav is not that inspiring really. Last year showed any horse can win it and Imperial Commander proved that improving young horses are a good bet. At the price, 1pt is worth a punt at this time.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

1.20 Carlisle - Bedlam Boy Best form over hurdles and these fences aren't the stiffest around, so I expect him to finally come good over the bigger jumps. Has shown promise and on his chasing debut he was absolutely enjoying himself before falling. Think he'll have his confidence back and win today. 3.26pts to win 11/4 bog

Well done with this one mate :nana

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

Well done with this one mate :nana

Cheers mate. Should have had a bit more on him really. Fancied him to run a big race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.10 Exeter - Macmar 1.5pts e/w 20/1 bog This is a very interesting handicap hurdle over a long trip on soft ground and not many will stay in these conditions over this track. I like course form at Exeter and I think horses just come here and win again and again. The top weight Macmar has run some good races here and has been going well over hurdles this spring. Wining and finishing 2nd at the track. He was rated in the 120s over fences and mark of 115 and 5lbs claimer put him right in. This is a class 4 event and he has won a class 3 off top weight over fences. And the race he won in April over hurdles was a class 3 affiar too. Of course there are few potential improvers lower in the weights, but with lots of top yards represented I think he is decent value. Robert and Sally Alner's team has been having winners and placed runners all over recently and all their horses seem to be running blinders first time out. This old fella can come back to his best and run a big race today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.00 Lingfield - Zorro De La Vega/Huguenot f/c Phillip Hobbs has won this race the last two years, but favorite is really going palces and has been running well recently. Another hike in the weights may not be enough to stop him, because he won very easily last time and was once in these weights. That was 2 seasons ago. He should be too strong for this field and I expect Huguenot to chase him home. 0.5pts straight f/c 0.5pts tote exacta

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.10 Exeter - Copper Bleu/Take The Breeze f/c Won't be brave to opose the favorite here. I think his form is well above everything else and only needs to jump well to win here. Certainly looks a chasing type and should take this race. Take The Breeze has been good over hurdles and won off 130, so he also stands above the rest. I think Copper Bleu will have too much class for him and those two will occupy places 1 and 2. 1pt tote exacta 1pt straight f/c

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.20 Sedgefield - Farmers Cross Ferdy has been keeping me out of trouble with two nice winners recently and I hope this one scores for him and myself today. Still unexposed and was starting to look a nice type in the spring when winning and finishing 2nd. Switched yards since and is in the North now. Runs off light weight with the 5lbs claimer on board and looks ahead of the handicapper. The fav is a better chaser than hurdler and Divers is yet to convince me he can win off his current mark. 2pts to win 7/1 Boyle, SJ bog 2pts to place 2.88 Betfair

[stewartd14]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

3.10 Exeter - Copper Bleu/Take The Breeze f/c Won't be brave to opose the favorite here. I think his form is well above everything else and only needs to jump well to win here. Certainly looks a chasing type and should take this race. Take The Breeze has been good over hurdles and won off 130, so he also stands above the rest. I think Copper Bleu will have too much class for him and those two will occupy places 1 and 2. 1pt tote exacta 1pt straight f/c

Dickie Johnson on a novice chaser. Thats like a 10lb penalty :hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Paddy Power Gold Cup 1pt win on Knowhere 70.0 Betfair Not getting any younger, but I think he will get his ideal conditions on Saturaday. And with Our Vic top weight he will race off handy 11-5 which will be ideal. I hope Our Vic isn't withdrawn of course, because 70s is too big for the game Twiston-Davies horse. He beat Exotic Dancer on soft last year in the Old Roan. Also beat Our Vic at Cheltenham. These are all Grade 2 events. Of course many younger rivals are pontentially well handicapped for saturday, but with rain forecast I think Knowhere may have a fitness edge and will stay powerfully up the hill. I like his record over 2m4f .. 6 wins from 9 starts and 2 others are placed. Only once he's been out of the top three. Will need to be at the top of his game to have any chance of winning here, but should be a lot shorter price imo and racing knows bigger upsets than this.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.40 Bangor On Dee - Moon Over Miami 3pts to win 5/1 Ladbrokes bog Always been very talented, but lost his way a bit last season. Ran a cracking race to finish 5th behind Oh Crick at the festival. Won G2 over hurdles and fences and beat Big Bucks on soft giving him 10lbs. I think he can run a big race today. It's always a chance when putting money on him, but I think he's a bit overpriced. After a summer break with the yard hitting form may be the right time to catch him and left handed tracks seem to suit him more.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.50 Warwick - Lemon Silk 2pts e/w 14/1 Bet365, Lads bog A bit of gamble, but this race is so weak and only needs a bit of the old sparkle to feature here. Won a G2 in 2007 and finished 3rd to Franchoek and 4th to Katchit. His form has been absolutely awful since, but he's now dropped a lot and is really low in the weights. What is interesting for me is the market support. Backed from 20 to 14 on Betfair. And the other thing that's quite attractive, Paddy Merridan is on top today and he hasn't ridden him since 2007 when the horse won and finished 3rd in those far better races I am talking about. Still 5yo so there is improvement there. Worth an e/w punt at the price. Trainer had a winner and a 2nd last week and after a summer break I think he can come good and beat this field today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.10 Bangor - That's Rhythm Impressive season last year and was running a big race in the Scottish National, but unfortunately fell. This is not a very strong race and I have just one concern, his full fitness may come next time. He should still run a good race and I am very optimistic on a place here hence the bet. 4pts to place 2.94 Betfair 1pt to win 7/1 Coral, Lads bog