mileni4uk Posted November 22, 2009 Author Share Posted November 22, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 November Figures: Bets: 80 Staked: 279.0 P/L: +11.3 Yield: +4.05% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.35 Kempton Bob 'n' You Nemetan Dont Tell The Wife Comb Tricast 6 x 0.25pts -> 1.5pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.15 Ludlow - Wizards Dust 2pts to win 13/2 This is not the most consistent horse out there, but I think he's not a bad price for this small field and the time to catch him is when yard is doing well. He won off top weight last month and was raised 7lbs for that success. Brian Toomey will offset those 7 pounds today. The horses he beat 2 starts ago Pistol Basc and Sycho Fred beat him last time, but they were far better off the weights. It's interesting that the form of his win has worked out quite well. The horses placed from 2nd to 6th in this race have finished accordingly (1,3/ 2/ 1,2/ 2/ 2/ 3,2) in their next runs. This is not a bad form for a 8 runner low handicap affair. 13/2 seems a price worth taking and represents nice value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.50 Ludlow - Ballinderry Park 2.5pts to win 9/2 2.5pts to palce 2.02 Has won off 109 over hurdles and runs off 116 here, but Peter Tool is claiming 5, so for me he is definitely a player in this race. Trainer likes him a lot and thinks he can win here and go onto hotter novice chases after that. Money came for him this morning too and in 8 runner field it makes a nice e/w bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.00 Kempton - Meanus Dandy 1.5pts e/w 7/1 Gonna give this one a chance to redeem himself after the latest flop. I thought he was silly price last time and I was right. But I think he's quite a big price today and makes appeal. Paul Nicholls had so many odds on horses turned over that weekend, so something wasn't right. This horse has had 4 consecutive wins in pointers and there's definitely some ability there. I've never liked Khachaturian and I think he can't win today. Cast Cada makes appeal though and I might have a small saver on him. Meanus Dandy should be good enough to at least place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.00 Kempton - Cast Cada 2pts to win 9/4 Very good hurdler and ran well last time, but seemed like he needed the run. Major contender today and should run well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 -1.5 +13 -5 +0.6 -2 November Figures: Bets: 85 Staked: 292.5 P/L: +16.4 Yield: +5.61% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted November 23, 2009 Share Posted November 23, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Well done with Wizards Dust :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Well done with Wizards Dust :clap Thanks mate. Lucky winner, but they all count and had enough fallers this month, so I'd gladly take such :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.50 Sedgefield - Carrietau 2pts e/w 7/2 Ran a very good 2nd last time and the winner has won again since. It was a conditional riders handicap, so actually Ryan Mania will claim the 5lbs today and I think he can finally win after so many near misses. Storm Surge comes after a long break and fitness is taken on trust. Farne Island was 2nd lto with a claimer, so this will be a bit tougher with no claim and raise in the weights. Barton Sun could have had a chance, but is outside of the handicap and these 4lbs are a bit too much for the old fella to overcome and win here, I think he's a nice place bet, but not more. Even if my selection finds someting to beat him today, I am qutie confident he can be in the places and I should get most of my stake back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.20 Sedgefield - Riguez Dancer 3pts e/w 11/4 I think the market is completely wrong here. The only reason why Riguez Dancer is so big is probably the doubt about him staying better than the Howard Johnson horse, but the short priced fav did fail to win over similar trips and is rated 120 over hurdles, while my selection has a mark of 128 and was in grand form on the flat including a win over 2m. All these wins on the flat make me think he has improved a lot since and is a lot better than his hurdling mark suggests. Has also won on soft, has placed over this distance and if not a favorite, should at least be closer in the market than the 11/4 on offer. With joining top yard, who's on form at the moment, I have to be on the horse today even if it's his debut. I hope there are no last minute surprises with the 8 runner field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Gutted about Riguez Dancer seeing Murphy's 2nd string winning it. Started off at an exellent price of 4/1 and fell at the 3rd. Typical story for me this month :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.10 Lingfield - Rileyev 3.5pts to win 7/2 I like his form for today's handicap debut. Got beat in 2nd at Aintree by the very progressive Shiwawa, who has won several races since. It seemd to me he needed the run last time and Venetia is always starting her seasons slowly. Improvement is expected and the Charlie Mann horse might struggle to carry this weight on this ground. Certainly the price on the 2nd fav is more tempting and deserves a few quid on. Money came for him last time and today too, so it seems he is expected to go well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Gold Cup 2010 Glencove Marina 1pt to win 90.0 1pt to place 16.5 At bookies the price is 50/1. This horse has been forgotten, but is entered in some of the best graded chases in Ireland later in the season. Willie Mullins said in his stable tour he's back from injury and could be a Gold Cup horse this year. Maybe this season is going to be too early to beat Kauto or Denman, but we all saw that the young brigade is coming strongly and horses like Imperial, Cooldine and Glencove could improve and challenge come March. I think the selection is a very classy horse and I'm pretty confident I'll be able to trade out my stakes on him, because he seems an almost certain runner in the race and I also expect him to win a race or two in Ireland first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Hennessy Gold Cup An Accordion 1pt to win 55.0 1pt to place 9.4 New Alco 0.75pts to win 80.0 0.75pts to place 12.5 I am going with two horses, who represent the handicap specialist yards. David Pipe's An Accordion and Ferdy Murphy's New Alco. These two were 1st and 2nd at the 2008 festival running a great William Hill Trophy. Both haven't been seen for a long time, but their trainers are known to having a horse ready when it matters and I think they can both be well handicapped for Saturday. Both are still young enough to be improving and I think they can feature at big prices this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 12.20 Wetherby - Laborec 3pts to win 3/1 Very weak affair and this horse lost his way a bit last season, but was a very promising novice and claimer will help a lot with his 10lbs allowance. Should be fav imo and I can easily see him winning today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.50 Wetherby - William Boney 3.5pts to win 7/2 These small fields are trying to kill the e/w punter like me. I think 7/2 is decent value though. Miss Pross is quite exosed and not sure where the improvement will come from for a win here. Kirby's Vic was the luckiest horse to win a race when the leader fell last time. And not to mention he almost lost it to Commemoration Day in the end just holding on the line. Kilkenny All Star is a long standing maiden and despite a nice effort in 2nd last time, I think he is short enough at 3/1 for a horse, who has never won in 25 starts. The danger is Lease Lend for an inform yard and coming here after some qutie decent efforts lately. But he is raised 5lbs for his latest success and is low enough at 2/1. William Bonney ran very well in 3rd on seasonal reappearance, but didn't stay 2m5f at Folekstone, so back to 2m he is well capable of winning this race and yard is in grand form. He has won on soft and heavy and finished the year with two nice wins over 2m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.50 Chepstow - Two Miles West 0.75pts e/w 50/1 This one can be a real dog, but is well treated on some of his old form. Fell badly in Bangor two months ago when looking like winner and was going to beat a good horse like Little Shilling. This was off mark 120. Won in July off 110. Has won a listed contest of 125 two year ago. Today he is running off 125, but claimer takes 10lbs off. Record on soft is a win and a second from three starts. All in all if the real horse turns up today, the 50/1 will be huge. And I have a reason to believe it will happen, because the blinkers have been removed and this can often rejuvenate a horse. Worth a small e/w punt at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 0.75pts e/w 50/1 Make it 1pt e/w. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 25, 2009 Author Share Posted November 25, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.15 Chepstow - Cesium 3pts to win 6/1 Hasn't shown much in bumpers and maiden hurdles, but trainer said he will be a nice horse this season and has improved a lot during the summer. They apparently thought a lot of him to run him in a listed race at Cheltenham. Half-brother to the talented Cerium, who is rated 140. Looks like Tom George has found the selection a nice opportunity to start his handicapping career and trainer usually does well with his first time handicappers. Money came for him this morning and I think he could well be a lot better than his current mark of 87. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.25 Taunton - Gunship 2pts e/w 7/1 Won 3 pointers and is making debut under rules. Seems to me a very winnable race has been found by connections for this first run over regulation fences. There isn't anything really special in the race and if the horse carries his pointing form, that should be enough. Talented claimer offsets 7lbs and money came this morning, which is also positive. Makes a nice e/w bet at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Thought the horse makes debut, but he has run over fences before :lol Latest win is off exactly this mark, but today he comes here with a 7lb claimer and on the back of 3 pointing wins, so that's even more positive :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Hennessy Gold Cup 5.5pt e/w Denman 6/1 Coral Hennessy Gold Cup An Accordion 1pt to win 55.0 1pt to place 9.4 New Alco 0.75pt to win 80.0 0.75pt to place 12.5 Looks like all three are in the final declarations. With all looking nice value, I can have another bet :lol Snowy Morning 1.25pt e/w 25/1 Heavily backed in 2007 when falling. Could have been the only horse that would have got near Denman. Could be another Irish gamble on him on Saturday. Horse lost his way recently, but finished the year with 2 wins. Off 150 he is well capable of winning a big race. Was rated 160 season ago and still managed to finish 9th in the National with huge weight on his back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.30 Newbury - Ouragan Lagrange 2pts e/w 20/1 As usual an uknown Nicholls horse from France is ridiculous price in a competitive handicap. My selections is at huge odds and his form is not at all bad. Beaten 3L by Oh Crick. We know where Oh Ckrick is now in the handicap. Beaten 2L by Exmoor Ranger and Your Ammount. The former won off 135 yesterday. The latter is rated 133. Add to that a 5L defeat to Five Dream, who has record 1,1,3 over fences and was in the 140s mark over hurdles. Off just 107 this horse can run a big race today. Trainer is in very good form at the minute and I think the 20/1 is way too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.20 Musselburgh - Mr Midaz 1.5pt e/w 22/1 Last time I was on Haka Dancer, who was 4lbs outside of the handicap and this probably cost me a 50/1 winner. Today he's 3/1 and no value on him despite probably being well in. The 2nd favorite of Ferdy Murphy's yard is unexposed, but rather disappointing, so I'll have a small nibble on a big priced horse. The selection was raised 6lbs for a Hexham win this summer, but has been rated 100 previously and has a win off 89 last summer. So today off 84 he could still be competitive. What is most importnat is that Peter Buchanan is back riding him and his record on this fella is amazing. Never outside the top three. 7 runs, 5 wins, 1 second and 1 third. The horse had a break and could well run a nice race today. I am inclined to have a bit of the 22/1 on offer with Stan James. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.25 Newcastle - Golden Flight 1pt e/w 28/1 Aimed at highly competitive races since with Henderson. Grand National, Cheltenham and then a very hot Wincantion handicap. Has dropped to mark of 136 and I have a reason to believe he can be competitive off this weight. All his winning in France is done with blinkers and he has them for the first time tomorrow. Trainer says he is completely different horse with them and I will give him one last chance. I have a sneaky feeling Nicky was waiting the horse to drop to a winnable mark and then put the blinkers on. Last run was for fitness and I expect a bold show tomorrow. Certainly the price is tempting enough for a point e/w. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.55 Newcastle - Its Teescomponents 5pts to win 3.25 5pts to place 1.52 Took this bet last night. He's down to 15/8 and 1.40 now. Very strong form though. Finished like a train last time to grab 3rd. Horse in 2nd and 1st have won since. Step up in distance ideal. Very strong claims with professional jockey back on top. Claimer gave him a bad ride lto and gave the leader about 50L start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.05 Newbury - Pop 2pts e/w 20/1 Fancied him for the Paddy Power, but he likes it a bit better than soft and will get his ground today. Running a big race at the Cheltenham festival when falling 3 out. Should go close today. Yard is doing well lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.00 Fairyhouse - The Midnight Club 6pts to win 2/1 Very good hurdler. Finished 3rd in the Albert Bartlet. Looks every bit a chaser and can start with a win his chasing career today. Some good horses against him, but the price is not bad at all. I was expecting 5/4. Should shorten during the day. I think this horse can be a major player for the RSA at Cheltenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Carrietau +8.4 Riguez Dancer -6 Rileyev -3.5 Denman +41.25 An Accordion -2 New Alco -1.5 Laborec +9 William Boney -3.5 Two Miles West -2 Cesium -3 Gunship -4 Snowy Morning -2.5 Ouragan Lagrange -4 Mr Midaz -3 Golden Flight -2 Its Teescomponents +13.75 Pop +8 The Midnight Club -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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