Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Grand National 2010 Two horses I think are overpriced at the moment and will be heading the market come April. Both have the race as clear target for the season and won't see their handicap mark get higher. Will probably run over hurdles until the weights are out. Comply Or Die 1pt to win 44.0 Betfair Character Building 1pt to win 44.0 BetDaq

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.55 Haydock - Master D'Or Won off 110 over hurdles few starts ago, so 106 over fences looks good. Most his good runs are on softer, but has won and finished 2nd on good before, so ground shouldn't be a problem. Has 1st, 4th and a 2nd on seasonal reappearances and maybe the time to catch him exactly on his first run of the season. Question marks on all runners here and 9/1 is worth a chance. 1.5pts to win 9/1 Lads, SJ - bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 -1.5 Current Figures: Bets: 45 Staked: 117.0 P/L: +45.5 Yield: +38.89%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.00 Newcastle - Jballingall At first sight the two top weights are contenders here, but Jballingall is a strong fav in this race and for me 2/1 is worth a shot. Since he switched yards he has run a decent 4th in a handicap and then 3rd just beaten a neck by Reckless Venture. Now this was off level weights and today he receives a stone from him. Will this form be the same? Probably no. A stone is a stone in horse racing nomatter how you see it. From the same race in 1st place was Onthegoagain, who also beat Seek The Truth in his previous run. Again 1lgt from Onthegoagain for my selection and a almost a stone better in the weights against the Bradburne runner. The horses in the low end of the handicap don't appeal at all, so I think 2/1 is a nice price for a very likely winner, who I also expect to improve. From the few horses he sends on the tack, trainer has impressive 25% strike rate in chases. 3pts to win 2/1 bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.30 Newcastle - Loom This is what I call a cheeky Pipe runner. Sent over a short trip to get his mark lowered and then upped to his right trip in lower company. He won off 88 twice this time last year and will run off 98 with 3lbs claimer today. It was clear he can't win off 108 and 105, so they sent him over 2m on unsuitable tracks. Left handed galloping testing track suits perfect. Won at Uttoxeter and Sedgefield. The market leaders could be strong, but the Tim Vaughan one hasn't shown much and price refletcts only the yard change. Command Marshal on the other hand is due to go up in the weights and trainer is forced to run him before that. This race could be easy for him true, but it also can come early only 4 days after his last run, so Loom represents huge value here. Trip and track can see him improve to his best and Pipe has been scoring in all kinds of handicaps lately. 1pt e/w 25/1 SJ - bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Loom tried to kick for home, but couldn't do it. Much promising though and maybe I had to be on him next time, not today. Jballingall looked best on form, but something wasn't right with him fading so quickly after traveling good. Was drifting in the market as well. -5 Current Figures: Bets: 47 Staked: 122.0 P/L: +40.5 Yield: +33.19%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 4.20 Stratford - Sazeilla 2nd and 3rd on the flat in Czech Republic and pure value bet with 8 runners. Except the fav there is nothing in this race and in such races sometimes is just better to go with the best conditional jockeys. Felix De Giles is taking the ride. 0.25pts e/w 28/1 Centrebet 0.25pts e/w 25/1 VC, Lads, Coral - bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Cheeky 0.5pt exacta on the Pipe jolly and my selection. I think these will be the 1 and 2 here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

Arkle Chase 2010 1.5pts to win on Jered @ 70.0 Betfair

Layed at 60.0. Didn't like what I saw on his debut.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Triump Hurdle 2010 Zaidpour Half brother of this year's winner Zaynar. Racing Post still show him with the french trainer, but he has moved to Mullins and he said in his stable tour the target is the Triumph. The horse has schooled well and I expect him to win his first few races in Ireland and to be a far lower price in few months time. Money traded at 20/1 on betfair already. 1.5pts e/w 33/1 Coral, Bet365

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

And a 0.5pt bet on Franchoek for the Arkle @ 220 Betfair

Layed @ 120.0

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.55 Uttoxeter - Incorporation Record here reads 4,PU,2,3,3,1,2,2,5,2. Has won only over 2m, but has 2nd and 3rd over similar distances to today's. The 2nd is here at Uttoxeter over a furlong further. Was creeping down the weights under the previous connetions and moved to a new yard. Apparently new trainer has found the key and he looks to be back enjoying himself. Finished 2nd here 2 weeks ago and won on Wednesday at Haydock. Useful claimer takes the penalty off, so this fella is virtually a winner without a penalty today. Main danger is a NR and I expect a bold show. Trainer is in red hot form on the AW and the rejuvenated Incorporation proves the stable is in good condition over the jumps as well. If the place price gets higher on betfair I may have a nible later. For now win only bet. 2pts to win 6/1 bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.25 Uttoxeter 1.5pts e/w Even Flo 14/1 Boyle bog Comes here in top form after a 2nd in this race last year and two wins over fences. The last win over fences was off 102, so this makes him very well treated over hurdles today. It's a strong race, but I just think Even Flo is ahead of the handicapper and the price is huge. 1pt to win Dovedale 10/3 Boye bog Running with penalty, but usual rider comes back on top and it's only a small penalty to carry. Won easily last twice and warrents respect, so a saver on him. Boylesports offer money back if your horse finishes 2nd, so I'm hoping on 1st and 2nd and no money lost :loon

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.40 Wetherby - Nelson's Spice Improved for a step up in trip last time to beat Maljimar at Cheltenham. Back to 2m4f where he has plenty of wins. A very prolific horse, who has achieved remarkable 7 wins from 19 starts. 4lbs higher mark might not be enough to stop him and looks a cracking e/w bet at the price with 8 runners. 2pts to win 11/2 Boyle bog 2pts to place 2.30 Betfair 3 places

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

3.55 Uttoxeter - Incorporation

2.5pts to place @ 2.6 1pt to win 7.6

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Current Figures: Bets: 53 Staked: 137.0 P/L: +25.5 Yield: +18.61%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 More serios bets later, but for now I am having a 2pt "teaser" on two selections I think make a nice friday evening double. Charlie Hall - Tamarinbleu 9/4 Golf World Match Play 2009 - Anthony Kim 5/2 Looking at the Charlie Hall all week long and can't see past Tamarinbleu. Won't need to fron run with Ollie Magern in the race and this will suit. Deep Purple has stamina doubts. And Snoopy Loopy is on the downgrade. Pipe is in grand form and my selection is unexposed over 3 miles. As for the golf .. well I think Kim will go on and win this tournamen after just sneaking into the semi-final by some miracle. Has the most experiance of all players and if you take under consideration final is over 36 holes, then I don't think the other three contenders appeal much. So a 2pt double at a price a little over 10/1 :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Charlie Hall Chase - Tamarinbleu 10pts to win 9/4 bog Here comes my first banker of the jumps season. I wasn't sure if Pipe will choose this race with the horse declared for the Ascot handicap as well. Missed the bigger price, but couldn't risk him not lining up here. From the five runners I think Church Island has no chance. Snoopy Loopy had a break and might come good, but is 11 now and looked on the downgrade last season. Needs a bit of cut as well and quick ground won't suit. He's a battler though, so I may have a saver tomorrow depending on what mood I am in and if price has gone up a bit. From the 3 market leaders I think Ollie Magern will run his usual nice race, but is old now and I am not sure he can make all to win. And if they try to hold him up then he is litteraly fuckked. 3/1 is no value. I would have liked at least 5s against two classy types as Tamarinbleu and Deep Purple. Now the latter mentioned is a horse I absolutely adore. Good ground and fast pace is essential for him being with a chance of winning any race. I am just not sure he'll stay. Most of his winning has been done over 2m and last year at 2m4f. All his pedigree suggest he won't stay. 10/3? No thank you. Trainer has been in bad form as well. Sent some decent horses on the track lately and they did absolutely nothing. Cappa Bleu was awful last weekend. Finally Tamarinbleu. Ideal trip would probably be just like Deep Purple's 2m4f, but I think the Pipe runner is unexposed over 3 miles. Ran a fantasitc race last year to just be piped on the line by Snoopy Loopy when they both had Kauto Star under trouble. The main reason I am backing him is that he won't need to lead with Ollie Magern in the race and this will help him get home. There's noone better than Pipe getting them ready first time out and Tamarinbleu's record on seasonal reappearance is pretty good. Price is starting to shorten and has gone from 5/2 to almost 2/1 on Betfair. I think 9/4 could be a very decent value in the morning. We may see him start at 7/4 or thereabouts if my thoughts on the race are right. All in all the best horse in the race and gets weight from his rivals too. I have to be on him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Hennessy Gold Cup 2010 5.5pts e/w Denman 6/1 Coral Denman is back and is back to his favorite track. I remember this was my first ever bbotd when we started the competition in 2007. Nicholls said he is back to his best. I think they never should have run him at Aintree after the Gold Cup. He ran a cracker behind Kauto and showed he still has the ability. He will find it more difficult this year, but his mark has still dropped and could be considered as low. He was in the 180s and is only 174 now. At the price I can't see him out of the places and e/w bet is a must. I think he'll shorten as well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.25 Wetherby - Fair Along I love seeing Flint on the horse and not Johnson. I think the young fella rides him brilliantly. He will like Wetherby and improved a lot for step up in trip last year. Getting weight from main rivals he should run a big race here. 3pts to win 2/1 Stan James bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.20 Ascot - French Opera Second to Planet of Sound, who finished 3rd in the Arkle and then 3rd to Oh Crick at the festival. By far the best form in the race and odds against is great value. This for me is a banker material and should be odds on today. 5pts to win 5/4 Coral bog

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Some very strong favs and 2nd favs today for me and I will have some multiples on them as well. 1.20 Acot - French Opera @ 2.1 2.25 Ascot - You're The Top @ 2.0 3.00 Ascot - Micheal Flips @ 3.5 12.35 Wetherby - Nino Cochise @ 2.20 2.20 Wetherby - My Petra @ 4.50 2.55 Wetherby - Tamarinbleu @ 3.00 3.25 Wetherby - Fair Along @ 2.87 Trebles 35x0.1pts -> 3.5pts stake. All bog at Ladbrokes.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.35 Naas - Made In Taipan I think 1.7 for place is a gift here. Made is 4th from the Arkle and runs against horses, who are better over further. 3pts to place 1.71 betfair

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 And 0.5pts for win at 4.8 in case he wins not to regret it :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Very unlucky on Made In Taipan, who was absolutely enjoying himself infront and unseated 2 out. Tamarinbleu just beaten on the line, but fair play to Deep Purple. And the biggest disappointment of all My Petra with Gerraghty taking the wrong course. Would have made four winning trebles and not just one. 12pts profit lost there. Small loss on the day, but a profitable October and a nice platform to build on :ok -1.5 today Current Figures: Bets: 59 Staked: 164.0 P/L: +24.0 Yield: +14.63% October Results: Bets: 53 Staked: 133.0 P/L: +26.31 Yield: +19.78%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 I like the look of three horses tomorrow and will add one from tonight for a yankee. 8.50 Wolve - Black Eagle Godolhin on fire and looks a strong fav. Backed few of their horses blindly this last few days and they got me some nice profit. This one actually looks qutie good on form and is a decent price odds against. 2.25 Cork - Definitive Edge Very highly regarded and improving with every run. Main danger may struggle to give him 3lbs to beat him. I think Definitive Edge could be potential festival material. 2.55 Cork - Our Monty Very well handicapped over fences on the back of two hurdling wins. Low weight will help him a lot in this race and most of the main dangers have a lot to carry. He shaped as this long trip will suit. 3.25 Cork - Catch Me Started well his chasing career and I expect him to do very well over fences. Good ground was a concern last time, but he still won. Back on soft today and should be too classy for the field. 0.37pts yankee 11 lines -> 4.07pts stake All on Betfair at Betfair SP.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.05 Carlisle - Crocodiles Rock Loves the heavy and ran very nicely this time last year to win here. I think soft suits him and the more testing the better. Huge price and if McCoy was on him, he would have been single figures. 1pt e/w 16/1 bog 3.15 Carlisle - Malko de Beaumont The more rain the better. Price has been shorteing since last night and I can see why. This horse absolutely adores Carlisle and will love today's conditions. 1.5pts win 10/1 bog 1.5pts 2/1 to place 4 places

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 -7.5 November Figures: Bets: 3 Staked: 7.5 P/L: -7.5 Yield: -100.0%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.05 Kempton - Sir Harry Ormesher There's no way this is a 8/1 shot. This horse runs so well fresh. 2 times raced aftear a long summer break and 2 times won. The last time he beat Pasco off level weights as well. Gets 3lbs today. How is the Nicholls horse half the price I just have no idea. My selection ran also in two grade 2's. Over hurdles finishing very close 4th to Deep Purple at Ascot. Big mistake by the jockey that day to go infront so early. And not everything went for the Alan King fella on his grade 2 try over fences. Hasn't been seen since, but he'll be spot on for today and will definitely run a big race here. As I already said, Pasco concedes weight all around and was already beat by the selection. Nicholls is yet to fire as well. Battlecry is disappointing and I am not sure about him over this trip either. Wil probably be outpaced and plug on late, but not sure it will be enough. And the favorite deserves to be favorite, but was doing his good runs over hurdles over much further. When a chaser 2 seasons ago he was very very disappointing. The value lies with the Alan King horse. Yard is starting to fire as well. 3 winners in the last few days. I would call 5s or 6s the right price. 8s is definite value. 3pts to win @ 9.2 Betfair

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.30 Kempton - Very Cool One of the toughest horses in training. Leads from the front and gives his all not to let anything go past him. Had a good campaign last year with lots of wins. This is his first hurdling effort for some time after he was sent chasing. The last time he ran over hurdles it was off this mark and was a very close 2nd in a competitive race at Haydock. He is 3lbs lower today with the useful Farrelly on board and I expect him to be battling up the straight while others have given up. Can run a big race at a big price. Fayriland and Bouggler are respected, but the former is a short price and the latter is a bit too up in the weights despite being potentially very classy. 1pt e/w @ 20/1 bog