Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 World Hurdle 2010 (update) Fiveforthree.. 3pt win @ 16.26 Mourad.. 1pt win @ 150.0 Mourad.. 2.5pt place @ 15.73 Mighty Man.. 1pt win @ 75.0 I've taken the price on Mourad few weeks ago. You know I follow the yard and you also probably know I like the horse. Unfortunately you can take just 60 and 55 at the moment, but I reckon he'd be good deal shorter on the day. The main thing is if he can really beat Big Bucks though. That's why I am monitoring the w/o fav market closely. Stan James have 20/1, but no e/w and I will wait for more bookies to open this market. I fancy him to be in the front 4 and probably finish 2nd to BB. I also might have an outside bet on Massini's Maguire, because he might be back over hurdles after his recent chasing flop. I need to be sure about this though. It's not confirmed yet. Mighty Man could be matched at 100 or more if you're willing to try. I have no idea if they are going WH or RSA with him, becuase he ran well on his chasing debut. I've taken this bet two months ago.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Just reposting this as an update. Think I've taken the bet before his first run of the season ..

2pts to win Quel Esprit 22.0 Betfair Due to run this weekend and is apparently a very classy individual. Mullins pointed him as the one to follow for the season. Storng words if you bear in mind what horses he has in his yard. Beaten by Dunguib and Rite Of Passage in the champion bumper. The former is probably the most exciting novice for years and could even go in the Champion Hurdle. The latter has pissed the big handicap at Punchestown today. Either way they both won't meet my selection, who is a staying type and after the weekend should be a lot shorter price than this.

Neptune Novices 2010 Quel Esprit.. 2pt win @ 22.0 Happy to hear trainer's comments after today. Mullins wasn't too disheartened by Quel Esprit's defeat, saying: "It was a good run although he got beaten. We'll probably stick with the original plan and head for the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle." Seems like Rite Of Passage will go for the Supreme and he was the one horse I was worried about. Don't know if they will go for the Neptune with Quel though. He really looks like a 3 miler to me, but we might see a completely different horse when the pace is strong and he has a cover. Today's result was a bit freakish.

[bowles10]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 well done last 2 days Mileni, 2 nice big winners :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

well done last 2 days Mileni' date=' 2 nice big winners :ok[/quote'] Cheers, Rob. Good to have the jumps going on full gear, doesn't it :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Grand National 2010 Tricky Trickster.. 2pt e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) Hello Bud.. 1pt e/w @ 40/1 Character Building.. 1pt win @ 44.0 Comply Or Die.. 1pt win @ 44.0 King Johns Castle.. 1pt win @ 120.0 Arbor Supreme.. 2pt win @ 48.0 Saw Tricky Trickster is running over hurdles today, so a quick update on the GN. Nothing has changed. I haven't taken anything new. Arbor Supreme was running a nice race before falling at the last. King Johns Castle was given a nice gallop too without being put at the races really. Would be interesting which one McCoy will ride.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.10 Fontwell - Over The Flow 1.5pt e/w @ 8/1 Relatively unexposed 8 year old, who was out for a long time and has run 4 races in 2009. Needed the run when 4th in a novice hurdle and then didn't stay over 2m7f on the heavy. Dropped to a handy mark and with the jockey's 10lb claim will race off nice 10st5lbs and could surprise a few. Yard is doing well after the cold snap.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.00 Sedgefield - The Brig At Ayr 1.5pt e/w @ 50/1 SpBet Managed to get 55 and 11.5 @ Betfair on this one. 33/1 and lower at the bookies, only Spbet have 50/1. He was running ok lto when 2nd behind a smart Howard Johnson sort and was probably going to beat Smart Mistress, who finished 2nd after the selection's fall. Noticed trainer had a 33/1 3rd and a 200/1 6th these last few days, so his big priced horses are runing well. Lots of disappointing sorts from better yards are low in the market and I am willing to give my selection a chance to place. Shouldn't be that big and is a sound jumper despite the latest fall.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.10 Leicester - Space Cowboy 2pt e/w @ 16/1 Yard is in wonderful form and it seems the cold snap hasn't affected the Moore horses at all. Counted at least 20 placers and 7 winners on RP for the last 2 weeks, won't bother counting them. This horse has been running considerably well of late on unsuitable soft ground. Dropped to a very low mark of 79 (been a 90-100 horse last season) and with 8lbs claimer on board, he could have a big chance today. The ground on the chase course is good to soft with good places and soft only on the flat crossings.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.40 Leicester - Pliny 2pt e/w @ 8/1 - BetInternet bog (15/2 Sky) Will appreciate the test today and was heavily supported against Aldertune and Dot's Delight, who turned out to be very decent sorts. We never understood how good Pliny is when he was brought down at the 4th, but the market support was positive. His 5th on hurdling debut has thrown lots of winners in the horses infront, with the 5 well clear of the rest. And with yardsticks running well yesterday, Pliny looks worth an e/w bet with an odds-on shot at the top of the market.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Triumph Hurdle 2010 (update) Alaivan.. 3.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) Mille Chief.. 3pt e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) Zaidpour.. 1.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (4 places) Pistolet Noir.. 3pt e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) Secant Star.. 10pt win @ 14/1 Pity about Zaidpour's injury. He was a very smart sort and one that I fancied to be at least in the places at a big price. It seems the yard has a better chance in Secant Star though. After his unlucky fall at the last on debut, he was good in his last race and won very well. Big money for him for the Triumph and is currently down to 11/1 @ Betfair. Best price at the bookies 12/1. I took 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1 and my price is somewhere in the region of 14s, so that's what I am sticking here. Would probably lay and hopefully have a free bet on him on the day. I imagine he would go single figures, because he should run another race before the festival and I can see him winning it.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.20 Huntingdon - Ouragan Lagrange 1pt win @ 50.0 - Betfair 1pt e/w @ 28/1 - Coral, VC The 50 is now gone and I was also trying to get matched 9s for place. 28/1 is not bad either though. I think this horse has slipped to a low mark and Joshua Moore's claim of 7lbs will help a lot. Over hurdles the 3rd place to Exmoor Ranger and 4th to Oh Crick read really well. He also split Five Dream and Winsley Hill in a 5 runner chase. Those two are very capable horses and have run well over fences since. My selection has been a bit disappointing over the bigger obstacles, but he might needed that stiffer test and the jockey could be key here. Will try 1pt place to make it 2pt e/w, but the 4.8 available currently it's too low.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.50 Huntingdon Waarid 2pt e/w @ 16/1 Was on him last time, when he hit the 4th last and was outpaced at the worst possible moment. Definitely needs this longer trip and will race off just 10st today. I like his 2nd at Kempton, where he was behind the progressive Calzaghe (rated 18lb higher now). In 3rd place was a Venetia Williams horse, who has won his next 5 races. Don't know much about the jockey, but he has two 2nds from 4 hurdle starts and his claim will be handy. Ballamusic 2pt win @ 6/1 Comes here after 800 days off the track, but Alan King's yard is in great form and this is a very good horse. Can't ignore the money for him - 11s into 5s on Betfair.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.20 Huntingdon - Ouragan Lagrange 1pt win @ 50.0 - Betfair 1pt place @ 7.4 (update) 1pt e/w @ 28/1 - Coral, VC

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.40 Musselburgh - Rossini's Dancer 2pt e/w @ 20/1 Travelled like a good horse last time, but didn't stay the 2m4f and fell tired when in 3rd. The horses in 1st and 2nd are decent types and the 2nd has won since. 2 miles will suit today and I like his last effort on the flat when upped to 1m4f at Newcastle. Stayed on nicely to win it and is now rated 70. Few good sorts here, but Howard Johnson and Donald McCain Jr. horses in the race means we get nice value. I fancy my selection to have improved given 2 months to get over his fall and should be very competitive over this distance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

World Hurdle 2010 Mourad.. 1pt win @ 150.0 Mourad.. 2.5pt place @ 15.73

25/1 after Pricewise tipped him today.. too late Mr. Segal :dude

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 World Hurdle 2010 (update) Fiveforthree.. 3pt win @ 16.26 Mighty Man.. 1pt win @ 75.0 Mourad.. 2.5pt place @ 15.73 Mourad.. 2pt e/w (w/o Big Bucks) @ 12/1 Mourad.. 1pt back & lay @ 150.0 & 27.0 .. free 123pt

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.55 Warwick - The Hollinwel 3pt win @ 4/1 I don't think Backbenscher will be anything special over fences and while he is a good horse, I think there's a bit of overreaction to Alan King's improved form and 7/4 looks short. Gansey has done nothing but impress me over fences. He will have to concede 4lbs though and at 2/1 again a no bet. This Ferdy Murphy horse was strongly backed on chasing debut. I tipped him and I liked what I saw. Pity there are only 7 runners, we could have got nice e/w bet with three places if 8. I just have a feeling this fella could be a very classy animal. The way he travelled and jumped impressed me on debut. Last time he had no chance conceding 6lbs to a smart Howard Johnson sort, who was always going to stay 3m1f on heavy better and who has run 3 length 2nd to Barebrs Shop last year. 2m5f at Warwick might just be a bit on the short side, but it is soft and Graham Lee is a good judge what distance a horse should run at. I think the 4s represent value for what could be a very classy individual.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Skybet Chase - Trabolgan 2pt e/w @ 16/1 Ran a cracker lto and showed that his sparkle is back. Made an eyecatching move on the turn, but faded two out and it looked to me as he was in need of the run. Racing off nice mark 137 and the 10st10lb will be a very handy weight. Henderson continues in good form and lots of bookies go 10/1 and 12/1. I am glad they didn't run the horse at Cheltenham and gave him 50 days to recover after his last run. There shouldn't be a bounce and he should be 100% ready. I expect a big run on Saturday. Have a sneaky feeling this has been his target for the season.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.40 Doncaster - Kanad 2pt win @ 13/2 2pt place @ 2.28 Progressive 2 years ago when winning over hurdles three in a row. Started his chasing career well when 2nd to Somersby and then 3rd, where he possibly "bounced". Been given 2 months to recover and trainer reports him fresh and ready to run. Has won off this mark over hurdles and is rated 7lbs higher. Yard with couple of winners in the last days and the fav won over 2m5f on soft last time and might find this too sharp and is also raised fair bit in the weights. Think the forecast 5/1 is more accurate and 13/2 represents a bit of value for this unexposed horse, who can be good over fences now hanidcapping.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.50 Newbury - The Real Deal 2pt e/w @ 16/1 I usually have a moan when a horse falls and I think he has had a good winning chance, but this time I know I am backing a sketchy jumper. Despite that, I think he ran really well lto after some serios errors and slow jumps, but the lady riding him wasn't helping at all. He still made a good move 4 out, but faded in the end. Daryl Jackob is back today and the horse has been dropped to 115 after running in the 120s recently. Has won 2 novices handicaps off 108 and 121, so he clearly has ability. Only needs to hold his jumping together. Watched his novice wins and he jumped really well, so I think it's just a case of lost confidence. Yard gave him a confidence booster over hurdles, where he was 3rd and last time he really tried despite the errors and the poor ride. I expect Daryl to take it easy on him early and give the horse some confidence and creep into the race. Definitely can win off this mark and the price isn't bad at all.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 3.05 Doncaster - Master Fong 3pt e/w @ 20/1 Just saw that I have an email for this horse running. His 3rd on debut made me write the following note on RP: "Looked a threat, but made bad blunder 2 out and then jumped slowly the last." The 1st and 2nd were very decent sorts that day and seeing Billy's ratings I am definitely backing this fella. Better ground will suit and jockey claims 3lbs. Big chance!!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup - Cooldine 10pt win @ 4/1 This price won't last long after Mullins' interview today saying the horse is as good as ever. Well backed for the Lexus and clearly fancied, but reported to be coughing after the race. Yard is in much better shape now and the 11/4 on Joncol and 3/1 on Money Trix is a wrong market for me. The former was outstayed in the Lexus and while a very good horse, I can't help but think he's more effective over 2m5f or 2m6f at this stage of his career. While the latter doesn't have the class for a grade 1 race and was flattered to finish so close in the Lexus. From the rest Notre Pere would probably find this too short and there aren't many other dangers. Money traded at 3s on betfair latest and most of the bookies go 3/1 or 7/2. I can see Cooldine starting a clear favorite on the day and the 4/1 at Lads and VC is very generous.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 1.30 Cheltenham - Five Dream 2pt e/w @ 14/1 Very rarely I think a Nicholls horse is value, but Five Dream has been running in novice events and reminds me of Free World. Looked vulnerable and unwilling to win in small fields against novices and then went into a big field handicap and was only beaten by the progressive French Opera. Considering the selection ran in the 140s over hurdles this 133 could be very lenient and Ruby is back on. Only 2 course winners in this race and at the price, I have to be on.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 2.05 Cheltenham - Nycteos 3pt win @ 7/1 3pt place @ 3.05 Way better than what he has shown and off low weight could surprise a few here. Ground will suit and Seven Is My Number has come from Donny to keep the price realtively high.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

World Hurdle 2010 (update) Fiveforthree.. 3pt win @ 16.26 Mighty Man.. 1pt win @ 75.0 Mourad.. 2.5pt place @ 15.73 Mourad.. 2pt e/w (w/o Big Bucks) @ 12/1 Mourad.. 1pt back & lay @ 150.0 & 27.0 .. free 123pt

Tidal Bay while impressive today isn't always one to rely on and few other bubbles like Lie Forrit were burst today, so well happy with Mourad for the WH. It's a weak division and I know 5yo is hard to win this race, but he looks just about the proper improving young hurdler at this moment. Sentry Duty doesn't find anything off the bridle and is poor value. Karabak is poor value. Katchit as gutsy as he is won't stay. Powerstation probably has a slender place chance, but his price reflects his previous festival record rather than his current ability.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Nothing at all really today. Poor racing in Ireland for a Sunday and small fields in Plumpton. Fancied one at Hereford, but unfortunately the meeting is abandoned. Very happy with the January results. Hopefully the weather in February will continue to be ok, so we can have some decent racing before the biggest show on earth comes in March. Lysander -4 Shaka's Pearl +3.75 Orpsie Boy +1.8 Grenoli -3 Moon Over Miami -1 Marodima -3 Colonial Jim -4 Hi Dancer -4 Clear Gold +0.6 Mourad +7 Beroni -6 Cranky Corner -3 Maori Legend -2 Deep Pockets -2 More The Merrier -2 Skorcher -4 Double Eagle -0.16 Medermit +9.4 Jass -4 Jaunty Flight -2 The Sawyer +40 Quel/Rite double -4 Sports Line -4 Jackers +51.56 Over The Flow +1.2 Pliny +1.2 The Brig At Ayr -3 Space Cowboy -4 Ouragan Lagrange -4 Waarid -4 Ballamusic -2 Rossini's Dancer-4 The Hollinwell +12 Master Fong +16.8 Kanad -4 The Real Deal -4 Five Dream -4 Nycteos -6 January Figures: Bets: 38 Staked: 142.5 P/L: +54.15 Yield: +38.0%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Overall Figures: Bets: 258 Staked: 881.0 P/L: +66.29 Yield: +7.52% October: +26.31 (Yield: +19.78%) November: +55.33 (Yield: +14.30%) December: -69.50 (Yield: -30.75%) January: +54.15 (Yield: +38.00%)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Blue Square Handicap Chase - Tartak 2pt e/w @ 18/1 Backing him a bit reluctantly here, because I think his best trip is two and a half, but trainer was very bullish today about his chances. I think he ran extremely well in the Arkle last year as well and he hates tracks like Cheltenham, so it wasn't a bad run over 2 miles. Flat track is what he wants and if it's left handed even better. Still thinking he would have won the Peterborough if it wasn't that mistake 3 out. It's a very tricky race on Saturday, but the true 2 milers are a bit high in the weights for me. Don't think Fix The Rib has much up his sleeve from the handicapper, while Kalahari King will have to do a miracle to win this off top weight on his first run of the season. Oh Crick ran a cracker few weeks ago, but got raised in the weights and he carries a lot of weight too. His price is a bit skinny on that run, where he ran on strongly to grab 3rd and was probably flattered to finish like this. I think Tartak has been slowly coming to form this year and his 2nd in the Peterborough was followed by a very good run in the King George, where he travelled well for a long way before getting tired. 3 miles were way too far though. He jumped really well that day. Probably Denis O'Regan on board helped the horse or it was just the slow pace, but his jumping stood to the test and this shoould have given him a lot of confidence. I think the track will suit him and I can't see him any bigger than 14s after the race cuts up a bit. Trainer has come out and said he's looking forward to the race, so with an antepost bet it's important to have a 99% certain runner. Also fancy a 2nd bet in the race, but probably later in the week when I see the jockey bookings.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 4.10 Towcester - Dolly Grey 1.5pt win @ 65.0 1.5pt place @ 10.0 Interesting runner from a very shrewd yard. Getting 7lbs from the field. Her dam finished third in a novice chase and she's also a sister to a winning pointer. This long trip will suit. She ran well on bumepr debut when she was outpaced at a crucial stage, but plugged on for 3rd. Connections wasting no time to go chasing, where the yard is so good at. Record reads 14 wins and 20 places from 77. Also 5 wins and 3 palces from 12 horses ran here at Towcester. I like Tom O'Brien on the horse as well. It's a shot in the dark, but at the price I am willing to have a chance and there isn't much class in this race. It's full of handicap hurdlers going novice chasing. My selection can easily place in this company. The yard has done this a few times in the past.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Blue Square Handicap Chase - Moon Over Miami 1.25pt e/w @ 25/1 I have said a few times a punter should never chase a horse and I hope I'm not doing the same here. Backing him probably for the 3rd time this season. He ran really well last time though. The winner was well in and bolted up, but was raised fair bit for that. Moon Over Miami comes good this time of the year and ran a cracking 2nd to Oh Crick last March. Left handed galloping tracks suit him and the big field and strong pace helps him a lot. Trainer is doing pretty well in the last couple of weeks and if this 2nd place was a sign of things to come, then the 25/1 could look qutie a foolish price really. The handicapper has given the horse a nice opportunity on his old form and he could definitely run a big race. If not here, maybe at Cheltenham next month or at Ainree in April. Like I already mentioned in the Tartak tip, the better horses will all carry big weights and Moon Over Miami only has to repeat his Cheltenham effort to be in the thick of things getting a 20lb pull from Oh Crick on that Grand Annual run, who is now a non runner. That's even better though, he was the horse I was most worried about. He was poor value, but his last run showed he's in very good nick.