Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

[fintron]

4.45 Lingfield Matsunosuke was a impressive winner last time and has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is likely to have the race run to suit again here, with plenty of pace looking on the cards with Turn on the Style and Harry Up in opposition. However, despite his form, off this sort of mark and at the likely price, he's a no bet for me. Turn on the Style and Harry Up may hinder each others running and I would have liked to have seen George Baker on Little Edward to back him, especially since he's struggled a little off this mark of late. Haajes won two starts ago and is only 2 lbs higher here but I think he may find the company a bit too hot as all his wins have come at lower levels. With that in mind I think Ebraam could be the one to be on. Paul Howling's yard has hit a little bit of form and I regard this one very much similar to Royal Envoy and Gallantry, who have gone in for him in recent weeks, in that he is well handicapped on old form but just been performing a bit below par. His last win came over course and distance little over a year ago and after a winless run he has now dropped to a mark 1 lb below that last win. A 0.75 length second to Turn on the Style in a four runner Lingfield handicap in December, he had Matsunosuke behind, and he's getting an extra 9 lb from his conqueror that day when they do battle tomorrow so has every chance of reversing that form. Admittedly, he was behind Matsunosuke last time, but the Coogan horse was happier with the way the race was run and with a 3 lb drop in the handicap I think Ebraam is set for a big run. 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

4.45 Lingfield Matsunosuke was a impressive winner last time and has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is likely to have the race run to suit again here, with plenty of pace looking on the cards with Turn on the Style and Harry Up in opposition. However, despite his form, off this sort of mark and at the likely price, he's a no bet for me. Turn on the Style and Harry Up may hinder each others running and I would have liked to have seen George Baker on Little Edward to back him, especially since he's struggled a little off this mark of late. Haajes won two starts ago and is only 2 lbs higher here but I think he may find the company a bit too hot as all his wins have come at lower levels. With that in mind I think Ebraam could be the one to be on. Paul Howling's yard has hit a little bit of form and I regard this one very much similar to Royal Envoy and Gallantry, who have gone in for him in recent weeks, in that he is well handicapped on old form but just been performing a bit below par. His last win came over course and distance little over a year ago and after a winless run he has now dropped to a mark 1 lb below that last win. A 0.75 length second to Turn on the Style in a four runner Lingfield handicap in December, he had Matsunosuke behind, and he's getting an extra 9 lb from his conqueror that day when they do battle tomorrow so has every chance of reversing that form. Admittedly, he was behind Matsunosuke last time, but the Coogan horse was happier with the way the race was run and with a 3 lb drop in the handicap I think Ebraam is set for a big run. 1 pt win

I've just read that back to myself and that last bit doesn't make sense. :lol Both Matsunosuke and Ebraam should have been equally suited with the way the race was run last time. Ebraam made up a little bit of ground on the inside but Matsunosuke was very much the eyecatcher of the pair with a strong late burst. He carries more weight here though, and Ebraam has been dropped 3 lb, so I stick with my original choice.

[welshman443]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 2.35 lingfield--american spin-- should have improvement in him to score off his increased rating,the form of his maiden win 2 starts ago working out well got a good chance of getting off the mark in handicaps,therefore i give him a chance

[Spooner]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

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15:25 Haydock - Pennek Some good performences from Pennek this season and I fancy him to run big race today, beaten narrowly LTO at Hereford, he ran a very good race at cheltenham behind don't push it and big buck's, had some decent horses behind him. A slight concern would have to be that king's horses are not in the best of form however I will take a chance on Pennek here. 1pt win (For BBOTD Purposes)

[bowles10]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 3.25 Haydock (with you spooner on this one) i fancy PENNEK to finally come good tomorrow especially with Haydock's long run likely to help the horse over this 3m 1f trip. On its reappearance this season, was seen making late headway in the race won by Punchestowns over 2m 5f. Its 7th over 3m at Cheltenham behind Fair along was disappointing & maybe the pace of that race caught it out with the winner blazing a fast pace. Next outing 6L 3rd to Big Bucks again at Cheltenham is starting to look decent form & although never in with a shout, ran well. Just failed to get there on latest outing in a 3m 2f contest at Hereford, i think the penny may be dropping on how to ride this animal. Super nap 1pt ew

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 1.40 ASCOT MAMLOOK 0.5 E/W Pipe has two in the race but its the 2nd string i fancy. A pleasing run here lto and shaped like a step up in trip would suit and the stable weren't firing at the time. The worry for me is the ground i would have made it a super nap if the ground had been better never the less there has been plenty of doe for it already. This is a good horse who is closely matched with the Fav who is only 7/2. Even with the ground is worth taking a chance at the price imo.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 BREEDSBREEZE 1.05 Ascot. 2 point win Super Nap. I think he can win this race and win it well. The trip and ground shouldn't pose any problems and although has a couple of live dangers, he should prove too classy for them the latter stages. Looks a good bet to me at anything above even money and so the 13/10 currently on offer will do me for today, win or lose.

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 A FRENCH HORSE 1.15 Uttoxeter. Capable of much better and this race should be set up for him. The trip and ground's not a concern and so should e able to take advantage of the weight he recieves from the favourite. 1 point win.

[Rainbow]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 kasbah bliss 120 hay. 1 pt win. far better form than any other in the race and trip and grounds ok. only one danger in my eyes and thats far too short due to trainer and jockey. looks a solid win bet.

[RussP]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 2.35 Lingfield 12 runners line up for this Class 4 handicap over 1m4f. There is a clear front 3 in the market and they all have claims but I'm going to look for a bit of EW value elsewhere. The 3 in question at shortish prices are Scarab, American Spin and Horseshoe Reef. I'll discount Scarab on the basis of a 5lb higher mark, racing in a bigger field and a break over 30 days whilst American Spin has to step up in class and carries 2lb more too, despite finishing 2nd lto. Horseshoe Reef ran well on its UK debut but I will question its chance of repeating that performance, another up in the weights too. Saying that, it is feasible these 3 could fill the 1-2-3! Looking at the others, Ameeq has come in for money but the absence worries me whilst Action Impact has a wide draw to overcome. Again, saying that, Moore saddles them both from the foot of the weights. The one for me, however, is: War Of The Roses (20/1 >William Hill) - This looks a quality race for a Class 4 but, lets be fair, this is no 20/1 shot. Even on the face of it, has a great chance - jockey in super form (10/28 in last 14 days), trainer is 1/5, horse is race fit having ran just 14 days ago, has nice inside draw in 3, goes really well here (4 wins, 6 2nds from 13 starts), and has finished 2nd 3 times from its 4 tries in this grade. Was profilic 12 months ago with 3 wins and 3 2nds from 6 starts, all around here. Since then, hasn't bee quite as good but excuses for that. Has had 5 AW races since its turf campaign, all over C&D, form being 1-2-2-6-8. First 3 of those runs were off 75, 77 & 79, the last 2 in this grade. Recorded extremely good Topspeed figures in all 3 of those runs. Since then, has raced off marks off 84 & 85 in grades higher than today. Dropped 4lb back to 81 and 2 grades from Class 2 to 4, can show much improved form and should give a very good account of itself at a massive price. Super Nap - 1pt EW

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 1.25 Lingfield - Double Act - Back Looking for a hat-trick today, and the form horse of the race. My nap last saturday was beaten by Whotsit at 40/1, for whom the 1st time blinkers worked a treat, he looks the main danger along with Bartica. But Double Act is rated 80, and if he runs to that mark he should sluice up here. Very short price, but deservedly so in my opionion.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

1.25 Lingfield - Double Act - Back Looking for a hat-trick today, and the form horse of the race. My nap last saturday was beaten by Whotsit at 40/1, for whom the 1st time blinkers worked a treat, he looks the main danger along with Bartica. But Double Act is rated 80, and if he runs to that mark he should sluice up here. Very short price, but deservedly so in my opionion.

Please not, i forgot to add 1pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 245 Ascot: Chariot Charger Think this has been one of the most impressive novices ive seen this season and will be disappointed if he cant take this, there has been quotes about which race he will go for at the festival, even 3m has been mentioned so will be staying on even in this ground. Main danger is obviously the fav Wendel, he is stepping up in trip and may just be found out.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Asc 1.40 Belcantista 1 pt win 15 pts Only run twice in this country but did run quite a lot abroad so isn’t as inexperienced as a first glance suggests. What he is though is a useful hurdler and he ahs shown that on both his hurdle starts here. On debut he beat the well thought PN runner fistral beach with the pair some way clear. Then he raced in the Ladbroke and run a mighty race especially for a horse as inexperienced in terms of racing in UK as this one was. He finished second and whilst two favs in that race ashkazar and aigle d’or didn’t run their races, the form of the front few looks very solid. Sentry Duty a good sort on his day when fresh, Numide a classy flat performer who won the greatwood and even songe who came from a good 4 year old group and boosted the form afterwards with a graded win. Belcantista was right amongst them and only up 7 pounds isn’t that harshly treated today and with a lovely racing weight at the bottom.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

Asc 1.40 Belcantista 1 pt win 15 pts Only run twice in this country but did run quite a lot abroad so isn’t as inexperienced as a first glance suggests. What he is though is a useful hurdler and he ahs shown that on both his hurdle starts here. On debut he beat the well thought PN runner fistral beach with the pair some way clear. Then he raced in the Ladbroke and run a mighty race especially for a horse as inexperienced in terms of racing in UK as this one was. He finished second and whilst two favs in that race ashkazar and aigle d’or didn’t run their races' date=' the form of the front few looks very solid. Sentry Duty a good sort on his day when fresh, Numide a classy flat performer who won the greatwood and even songe who came from a good 4 year old group and boosted the form afterwards with a graded win. Belcantista was right amongst them and only up 7 pounds isn’t that harshly treated today and with a lovely racing weight at the bottom.[/quote'] Thats 1 pt win by the way.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 3:40 Gowran Park - Clopf 2PT BANKER WIN No doubting the class of this animal, who returned to somewhere near his best LTO before nearly pulling himself up after hitting the front and being caught by Aitmitov, perhaps 2m3f into horrendous winds on the home straight were far from ideal, but 2m on this ground will be right up his street. The other 2 principals Jazz messenger and Solwhit, whilst of interest both have question marks. The former, as he hasn't been seen in a year (this race actually), and will possibly come on for the run, and the latter is 10lbs worse off than when beating Clopf, who was far below his best 2 starts ago at Fairyhouse. If everything in this field runs at their very best (over hurdles), then Clopf would have too much class for them.

[jtw1]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 UTTOXETER 3.30 - MOHAYER has a record of 2,1,1,3,2,2,3,f when running in Heavy going so it should get through the ground today and one of those 2nd places was over C/D when beaten a hd . It's previous 6 runnings have seen it race 4 times on unsuitable ground and the other twice when on Heavy going was when it fell at the 4th in a Beg Chase at Carlisle , then was in contention when falling at the last in a Beg Chase at AYR , it was remounted so it did technically finish . Today see's it get it's ideal conditions over Hurdles and the stable is bang in form .

[godofhorses]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 1.50 Uttoxeter-Banker-Gouranga Trip of 2miles will suit, theres not a lot of horses in this race who can handle the ground. I'm quitely confident it can overturn te favourite. For those cautious people a rev fcastmay be the play.

[NMc106]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

14-15 Ascot - Voy Por Usteded - Win

Not the most original of bets but Im pretty confident with it, despite the possible ground problems. Its hard to pick a winner in any of these races but this one isn’t so difficult. Voy Por Ustedes is well in on the weights, some 8lbs better off than his nearest rival Tamarinbleu. VPU isn’t having the best of seasons so far with a 4^th and a 3^rd lto, but he should get back into form today and I expect him to win this quite easily. Hasn’t ran on heavy ground in Britain though has done so, and won, over in France so he should deal with the conditions. Currently 5/4 Available.

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Ascot 2.15 - Tamarinbleu - win Ideal conditions for this one today, small field, soft ground, he's fresh from a break, a CD winner and stable hitting form VPU has never won here and his stamina might be questionned in this heavy ground if Tamarinbleu takes them along at a decent clip. Gwanako - not sure he'll act on the ground either, seems better on no worse than good to soft. The Sawyer ran a couple of days ago, when I had him EW, but he folded quickly and looked like he needs a break. Tamarinbleu to make all and win..............:ok

[Pumpit]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Kempton 3.00pm 1pt lay Alexander Family Horse not shown much before LTO but cant have her v a field of handy sorts,plus think Imperial Skylight will turn form round today.

[cc75]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 2.40 Wincanton: Whiteoak Should have no trouble with conditions today and although stepping back in trip, the testing conditions will bring it's stamina in to play. If straight after break, yard in great form just now and with doubts surrounding Punjabi, this one could be the value of the race. WIN

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 3.10 Wincanton - Mendo e/w Hope there isn't a last minute withdrawal here. At 8/1 and 8 runners, this looks a cracking e/w bet. The Nicholls horse gives us a good value. If Mendo runs to his form of last spring when 4th in a G3 handicap at Sandown and 4th in the Coral Cup, then he'll take all the beating off 5lbs lower mark dropped down in class.

[stewartd14]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 A lot of nice bets at nice prices today, but the Best Bet goes in the 3.55. 3.55 Haydock Grand Bleu This isnt an easy race, but I do feel that the favourite is too short. One of the main dangers in my opinion is Grand Bleu and I am shocked at the price. He goes best on heavy going, and I feel he is a much better horse when the rain comes. For that reason, I think he is quite fairly treated due to a lot of runs on good ground. He has been contesting better races than this and this is a drop in class. He won in Britain on his debut, and could get his 2nd win here. 9/1 is fair. EW

[palaceman]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 3.30 Uttoxeter: Take The Breeze. 1 point LAY Had a good win 2 races ago, but then largely gave up the ghost last time out in admittedly a higher class race. But I think the extra weight he had to carry because of the win had proved a factor, and he is on the same mark today. Plus I'm not convinced he'll fully appreciate the going as the top weight. Only has 6 horses to beat, so clearly in with a chance, but I feel he is worth opposing.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Nice one Russ mate!!

[Pumpit]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Great going Russ and great write up:clap:clap:clap:clap:ok

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Well done Russ..............what a coup ! :ok

[NMc106]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Brilliant Russ. Great tipping and a great Banker. :clap:clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09 Well done Russ, superb stuff :ok W9.20 Calzaghe 0.5pt E/W First run for a new yard who have been having great success on the AW this season. The trainer is in cracking form and the stable jockey looks to know how to ride a good race around here. Throw in the fact that historically, the horses best runs have been over this C&D, and the 10/1 looks like a decent e/w price.