harry_rag Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 PM Ascot 1:50 "Master Rating" # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Tales Of The Heart 13 107.31 106.73 2 Simmering 2.625 106.75 19.89 3 Aviation Time 15 106.52 109.78 4 Alice Fairfax 21 101.28 30.16 5 Betty Clover 17 99.65 6 Definitive 10 97.30 7 Mandurah 5.5 95.62 8 Handcuffed 6.5 85.56 Ok, here we go. 3 clear top rated, one the short priced favourite. The other 2 clearly flagged as the value in the race. Alice F edges Simmering out of the top 3 if you rank by MC and Z figures but not great on the value metric. I prefer the best value horse in the race to have a "Val" number of 110+ but this is close enough to be worth a bet with similarly clear of the rest. Where the best value horse in the race comes in at no more than 105 on that metric it's telling you there's not that much value. For the avoidance of doubt, this doesn't include my ratings, the "panel" is @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @Zilzalian and the RP Topspeed rating. yossa6133, Bedlam, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted yesterday at 02:44 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:44 PM 2 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Ascot 1:50 "Master Rating" # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Tales Of The Heart 13 107.31 106.73 2 Simmering 2.625 106.75 19.89 3 Aviation Time 15 106.52 109.78 4 Alice Fairfax 21 101.28 30.16 5 Betty Clover 17 99.65 6 Definitive 10 97.30 7 Mandurah 5.5 95.62 8 Handcuffed 6.5 85.56 Ok, here we go. 3 clear top rated, one the short priced favourite. The other 2 clearly flagged as the value in the race. Alice F edges Simmering out of the top 3 if you rank by MC and Z figures but not great on the value metric. I prefer the best value horse in the race to have a "Val" number of 110+ but this is close enough to be worth a bet with similarly clear of the rest. Where the best value horse in the race comes in at no more than 105 on that metric it's telling you there's not that much value. For the avoidance of doubt, this doesn't include my ratings, the "panel" is @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @Zilzalian and the RP Topspeed rating. Yes I'm loving the two value bets if the 8 runners holds harry_rag, The Equaliser and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM # Ratings Horse Odds Rating Val 1 MC Tales Of The Heart 13 112.56 116.33 2 Zil Aviation Time 15 106.38 109.57 3 RW (R) Simmering 2.625 107.08 26.68 3a RW (V) Aviation Time 15 105.00 107.49 4 TS (R) Simmering 2.625 118.22 36.09 4a TS (V) Aviation Time 15 110.19 115.28 I'm not doing this for every race as it took too long (individually running everyone's ratings) but if we think it adds value I could maybe incorporate it into the template so it gets spat out automatically. This shows everyone's top rated and best value so for MC it's TOtH for both and for Zil it's AT. The other two both top rate the fav but have AT as best value. So if you only want to back one runner then maybe Aviation time is the clear consensus pick. Zilzalian, Bedlam, The Equaliser and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 03:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:24 PM 5 hours ago, Zilzalian said: @MCLARKE @richard-westwood do you want to replicate this? @harry_rag do you want to put it together if they do? Are your 3 zero rated correct and, if so, how am I best running the numbers, with the zero or give them an assumed rating e.g. the average for the remaining runners? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM 8 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Are your 3 zero rated correct and, if so, how am I best running the numbers, with the zero or give them an assumed rating e.g. the average for the remaining runners? The zero rating represents "not worth rating for speed" because they just haven't achieved a half decent time, theoretically you could rate them same as the SR so Sirona would be 95 95. but certainly never equal or greater than Thornbrook. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted yesterday at 03:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:45 PM Quite a lot of work gone into this endeavour by the lads so and lets hope we can get some decent results. MCLARKE, BBBC, The Equaliser and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:00 PM 14 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: The zero rating represents "not worth rating for speed" because they just haven't achieved a half decent time, theoretically you could rate them same as the SR so Sirona would be 95 95. but certainly never equal or greater than Thornbrook. In the absence of a specific number that can be used in the rating I have to make an "executive decision" on what is the most sensible figure to use. I can't really favour using the SR number as it's a different scale to yours so I've given Sirona a rating of 106 which is based on it's SR number as a % of their top rated. It leaves it clear lowest rating in your numbers. Ascot 2:25 # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 FRIENDLY SOUL 6 108.92 79.43 2 SOPRANO 4.5 104.04 26.97 3 JULIA AUGUSTA 51 101.42 107.22 4 SIRONA 6.5 101.18 11.42 5 DOOM 10 99.24 6 THORNBROOK 12 97.18 7 NAOMI LAPAGLIA 51 94.15 8 DEVOTED QUEEN 3.75 93.88 The value numbers are so-so here. We're basically flagging the rank outsider as best value with the shorter top rated the next best notion of a bet. Any more educated view on that interpretation would be welcome. MCLARKE, Zilzalian and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Luxembourg 12 110.40 112.48 2 Auguste Rodin 2.5 109.79 22.07 3 Bluestocking 6 103.86 20.86 4 Sunway 15 102.07 27.94 5 Dubai Honour 26 101.74 40.72 6 Middle Earth 11 100.01 7 Rebel's Romance 4.5 96.27 8 Hans Andersen 151 91.94 9 Goliath 34 83.93 Ascot 3:40 Seems to be as succinct as "back Luxembourg"? Maybe Dubai Honour if you really want a proper e/w price, especially if an extra place were to pop up somewhere. MCLARKE, The Equaliser, richard-westwood and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 04:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:22 PM I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows. The 4 runner race has a confounding variable anyway being that there is a question mark over passengers fitness if its fit it wins easily in my opinion. So like you say why bother. The Equaliser and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM Yea, Zil summed it up, a lot of time and effort gone in to this by all you guys, so even before a race is run, cheers. MCLARKE, harry_rag, BBBC and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago Gotta be in it to win it ?!! LEE-GRAYS, MCLARKE, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Play Race Reader Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: The run in Ireland was very significant Micheal, in fact that race is one of the fastest on my records. Same, was confused as also had it one of the top speed ratings so far this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Play Race Reader Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: The run in Ireland was very significant Micheal, in fact that race is one of the fastest on my records. Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 31 minutes ago, In Play Race Reader said: Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year Zilzalian and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Play Race Reader Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year Good to hear 👍 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Play Race Reader Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year Was also my highest rated (joint with white birch) ,but the fact it’s a 3yo makes it a little bit special MCLARKE and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 7 hours ago, harry_rag said: I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows. YORK 2.40 HORSE RATING Silky Wilkie 91 Radio Goo Goo 88 Manila Scouse 88 Ferrous 86 Trefor 86 Korker 82 Badri 82 Dapper Valley 82 Bergerac 81 Dare To Hope 81 Rock Opera 80 International Girl 77 Brazen Bolt 76 Rage Of Bamby 75 The Equaliser, black rabbit, richard-westwood and 1 other 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 1 hour ago, In Play Race Reader said: Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint Elite status ran the fastest time of the day on my numbers so i wouldn't put you off. The proviso, i haven't looked at the opposition in the haydock sprint. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 5 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Gotta be in it to win it ?!! The Equaliser and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2.40 York Trefor 29 4/1 Bergerac 28 17/2 Silky Wilkie 25 5/1 These 3 bit clear of the rest and at the prices Bergerac is the bet . 2 points win richard-westwood and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Glendown took a small flutter for 1405, was 50/1 yesterday, now 16/1, bet @ 25s The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago richard-westwood, black rabbit and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago (edited) 2.05 York - SOUL SEEKER 15/2 eway Betfair ( 5 places ) 2nd 8/1 narrowly beaten , good run for my money & a tiny return 👍 Out of form but won this last year & 5 of 8 wins have come on rattling ground which gets today albeit race a bit of a lottery with jump jockeys . Edited 5 hours ago by calva decoy The Equaliser, richard-westwood and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3.00 Ascot-Dancing Magic Got a race like this in his capacity, so hard to ignore at these big odds Each Way @ 50-1 [six places] with Paddy Power Bedlam, The Equaliser and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago (edited) The 6.30 at Salisbury is an interesting little race ------- 5 runner, 5 furlong, class 6 handicap The favourite, Micks Spirit, usually runs in better races than this and has won the last twice he's dropped into class 6. He's in good form, carries big weights OK Looks unbeatable in a small field poor race However this track really should not suit him as a speedy front runner who does his winning on flat tracks preferably round a bend. Salisbury is quite a stiff track, largely uphill in the finish In relative terms for this low grade Mick's Spirit is the class horse in the field but is that enough to overcome what appears to be an unsuitable track ?. Will his class see him home ? Last time out he ran over this CD, blazed away but lost 2 places in the final half furlong as he tired up the hill. That was a better race than this .......... will he last out the trip against inferior opposition I had intended to put up Mick's Spirit as my Nap of the Day, and still might, but that last 100 yards has me worried ...... and I can see Media Guest, who won at Bath (uphill finish) last time whooshing past him despite being a much worse horse on all known form Since yesterday Mick's Spirit is drifting, Media Guest has gone into 2nd Fav, was 3rd Fav overnight ......... and now they're practically joint favourites Tricky one .......... 😜 Edited 7 hours ago by Trotter MCLARKE, In Play Race Reader and yossa6133 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Indeed it is, I have Mick's Spirit, Media Guest and The Defiant all with the same speed rating, 78. Best priced odds 5/2, 5/2 and 11/4. One to leave alone I would say. Trotter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Got word 400 Y Stormy Intact 11/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago (edited) . Edited 7 hours ago by MGC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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