Racing Chat - Saturday 27th July

[harry_rag]

Ascot 1:50 "Master Rating"

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Tales Of The Heart	13	107.31	106.73
2	Simmering	2.625	106.75	19.89
3	Aviation Time	15	106.52	109.78
4	Alice Fairfax	21	101.28	30.16
5	Betty Clover	17	99.65
6	Definitive	10	97.30
7	Mandurah	5.5	95.62
8	Handcuffed	6.5	85.56

Ok, here we go. 3 clear top rated, one the short priced favourite. The other 2 clearly flagged as the value in the race. Alice F edges Simmering out of the top 3 if you rank by MC and Z figures but not great on the value metric.

I prefer the best value horse in the race to have a "Val" number of 110+ but this is close enough to be worth a bet with similarly clear of the rest. Where the best value horse in the race comes in at no more than 105 on that metric it's telling you there's not that much value.

For the avoidance of doubt, this doesn't include my ratings, the "panel" is @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @Zilzalian and the RP Topspeed rating. 

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Ascot 1:50 "Master Rating"

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Tales Of The Heart	13	107.31	106.73
2	Simmering	2.625	106.75	19.89
3	Aviation Time	15	106.52	109.78
4	Alice Fairfax	21	101.28	30.16
5	Betty Clover	17	99.65
6	Definitive	10	97.30
7	Mandurah	5.5	95.62
8	Handcuffed	6.5	85.56

Ok, here we go. 3 clear top rated, one the short priced favourite. The other 2 clearly flagged as the value in the race. Alice F edges Simmering out of the top 3 if you rank by MC and Z figures but not great on the value metric.

I prefer the best value horse in the race to have a "Val" number of 110+ but this is close enough to be worth a bet with similarly clear of the rest. Where the best value horse in the race comes in at no more than 105 on that metric it's telling you there's not that much value.

For the avoidance of doubt, this doesn't include my ratings, the "panel" is @MCLARKE @richard-westwood @Zilzalian and the RP Topspeed rating. 

Yes I'm loving the two value bets if the 8 runners holds 

[harry_rag]

#	Ratings	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	MC	Tales Of The Heart	13	112.56	116.33
2	Zil	Aviation Time	15	106.38	109.57
3	RW (R)	Simmering	2.625	107.08	26.68
3a	RW (V)	Aviation Time	15	105.00	107.49
4	TS (R)	Simmering	2.625	118.22	36.09
4a	TS (V)	Aviation Time	15	110.19	115.28

I'm not doing this for every race as it took too long (individually running everyone's ratings) but if we think it adds value I could maybe incorporate it into the template so it gets spat out automatically. This shows everyone's top rated and best value so for MC it's TOtH for both and for Zil it's AT. The other two both top rate the fav but have AT as best value. So if you only want to back one runner then maybe Aviation time is the clear consensus pick.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@MCLARKE @richard-westwood do you want to replicate this? @harry_rag do you want to put it together if they do?

Are your 3 zero rated correct and, if so, how am I best running the numbers, with the zero or give them an assumed rating e.g. the average for the remaining runners?

[Zilzalian]

8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Are your 3 zero rated correct and, if so, how am I best running the numbers, with the zero or give them an assumed rating e.g. the average for the remaining runners?

The zero rating represents "not worth rating for speed" because they just haven't achieved a half decent time, theoretically you could rate them same as the SR so Sirona would be 95 95. but certainly never equal or greater than Thornbrook.

[Zilzalian]

Quite a lot of work gone into this endeavour by the lads so  and lets hope we can get some decent results.

[harry_rag]

14 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

The zero rating represents "not worth rating for speed" because they just haven't achieved a half decent time, theoretically you could rate them same as the SR so Sirona would be 95 95. but certainly never equal or greater than Thornbrook.

In the absence of a specific number that can be used in the rating I have to make an "executive decision" on what is the most sensible figure to use. I can't really favour using the SR number as it's a different scale to yours so I've given Sirona a rating of 106 which is based on it's SR number as a % of their top rated. It leaves it clear lowest rating in your numbers.

Ascot 2:25

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	FRIENDLY SOUL	6	108.92	79.43
2	SOPRANO	4.5	104.04	26.97
3	JULIA AUGUSTA	51	101.42	107.22
4	SIRONA	6.5	101.18	11.42
5	DOOM	10	99.24
6	THORNBROOK	12	97.18
7	NAOMI LAPAGLIA	51	94.15
8	DEVOTED QUEEN	3.75	93.88

The value numbers are so-so here. We're basically flagging the rank outsider as best value with the shorter top rated the next best notion of a bet. Any more educated view on that interpretation would be welcome.

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Luxembourg	12	110.40	112.48
2	Auguste Rodin	2.5	109.79	22.07
3	Bluestocking	6	103.86	20.86
4	Sunway	15	102.07	27.94
5	Dubai Honour	26	101.74	40.72
6	Middle Earth	11	100.01
7	Rebel's Romance	4.5	96.27
8	Hans Andersen	151	91.94
9	Goliath	34	83.93

Ascot 3:40

Seems to be as succinct as "back Luxembourg"? Maybe Dubai Honour if you really want a proper e/w price, especially if an extra place were to pop up somewhere.

[harry_rag]

I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows.

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows.

The 4 runner race has a confounding variable anyway being that there is a question mark over passengers fitness if its fit it wins easily in my opinion. So like you say why bother.

[LeMale]

Yea, Zil summed it up, a lot of time and effort gone in to this by all you guys, so even before a race is run, cheers. 

[richard-westwood]

Gotta be in it to win it ?!!

[In Play Race Reader]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

The run in Ireland was very significant Micheal, in fact that race is one of the fastest on my records.

Same,  was confused as also had it one of the top speed ratings so far this year 

[In Play Race Reader]

8 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

The run in Ireland was very significant Micheal, in fact that race is one of the fastest on my records.

Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint 

[MCLARKE]

 

31 minutes ago, In Play Race Reader said:

Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint 

I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year

[In Play Race Reader]

12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year

Good to hear 👍

[In Play Race Reader]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

I gave it a rating of 96 which is the highest rating I have recorded this year

Was also my highest rated (joint with white birch) ,but the fact it’s a 3yo makes it a little bit special 

[MCLARKE]

7 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I think that's me done for the day. That leaves (if I'm not mistaken) a 4 runner race that RW hasn't rated and the 2:40 at York which @MCLARKE hasn't rated yet. I could do the latter tomorrow if he sends his ratings through, maybe leave the other one unless time allows.

YORK	2.40
HORSE	RATING
Silky Wilkie	91
Radio Goo Goo	88
Manila Scouse	88
Ferrous	86
Trefor	86
Korker	82
Badri	82
Dapper Valley	82
Bergerac	81
Dare To Hope	81
Rock Opera	80
International Girl	77
Brazen Bolt	76
Rage Of Bamby	75

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, In Play Race Reader said:

Be interested to know how highly you rated Elite status last Saturday at Newbury,,I have it as a shoe in for Haydock sprint 

Elite status ran the fastest time of the day on my numbers so i wouldn't put you off. The proviso, i haven't looked at the opposition in the haydock sprint.

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Gotta be in it to win it ?!!

[Villa Chris]

2.40 York 

Trefor 29 4/1 

Bergerac 28 17/2

Silky Wilkie 25 5/1

These 3 bit clear of the rest and at the prices Bergerac is the bet . 2 points win 

[LEE-GRAYS]

[fd1972uk]

Glendown took a small flutter for 1405, was 50/1 yesterday, now 16/1, bet @ 25s

[Villa Chris]

[calva decoy]

2.05 York - SOUL SEEKER 15/2 eway Betfair ( 5 places ) 

Out of form but won this last year & 5 of 8 wins have come on rattling ground which gets today albeit race a bit of a lottery with jump jockeys .

[Striker]

3.00 Ascot-Dancing Magic

 

Got a race like this in his capacity, so hard to ignore at these big odds

 

Each Way @ 50-1 [six places] with Paddy Power

[Trotter]

The 6.30 at Salisbury is an interesting little race ------- 5 runner, 5 furlong, class 6 handicap

The favourite, Micks Spirit, usually runs in better races than this and has won the last twice he's dropped into class 6. He's in good form, carries big weights OK 

Looks unbeatable in a small field poor race

However this track really should not suit him as a speedy front runner who does his winning on flat tracks preferably round a bend. Salisbury is quite a stiff track, largely uphill in the finish

In relative terms for this low grade Mick's Spirit is the class horse in the field but is that enough to overcome what appears to be an unsuitable track ?. Will his class see him home ? Last time out he ran over this CD, blazed away but lost 2 places in the final half furlong as he tired up the hill. That was a better race than this .......... will he last out the trip against inferior opposition

I had intended to put up Mick's Spirit as my Nap of the Day, and still might, but that last 100 yards has me worried ...... and I can see Media Guest, who won at Bath (uphill finish) last time whooshing past him despite being a much worse horse on all known form

Since yesterday Mick's Spirit is drifting, Media Guest has gone into 2nd Fav, was 3rd Fav overnight ......... and now they're practically joint favourites

Tricky one .......... 😜

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Trotter

[MCLARKE]

Indeed it is, I have Mick's Spirit, Media Guest and The Defiant all with the same speed rating, 78.

Best priced odds 5/2, 5/2 and 11/4.

One to leave alone I would say.

[MGC]

Got word 400 Y Stormy Intact 11/2

 

[MGC]

.

Edited 1 hour ago by MGC