MCLARKE Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Just now, The Equaliser said: I feel that Skybet must use some kind of formula. Sometimes, though you can get a bet at the same price as Bet365 for the extra places so I guess that represents value or is it a dog that's going nowhere? The only difference is that you would get BOG with BET365 I wouldn't try and overthink it, I would use SKY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Just now, MCLARKE said: The only difference is that you would get BOG with BET365 I wouldn't try and overthink it, I would use SKY Unfortunately for me Bet365 refuse to give me BOG. No explanation from them either. I think you are right I'll stick with Skybet. Also, I think @harry_rag is right about going with your gut over the prices/extra places on offer. Sometimes it looks good and sometimes it doesn't look worth it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 AW selection Wolverhampton 6.30 SERENITY DREAM black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: I feel that Skybet must use some kind of formula. Pop on live chat, I'm sure they'd share it! 13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Sometimes, though you can get a bet at the same price as Bet365 for the extra places so I guess that represents value or is it a dog that's going nowhere? Probably sometimes one, sometimes the other. Whether the price is worth taking in the first place depends on your assessment of the horse in question. The obvious thing being, if you're going to back it each way then take the best place option. When the price differs then you have to make a call. I'd tend to say pick out your horses first then see what the best price/terms you can get are. Don't let the number of places "tail" wag the dog. I suppose one measure is to calculate the % of runners you're getting in the place terms, e.g. 5 in a 16 runner race is 31.25% of the field while 7 is 43.75%. That gives you a comparative measure. Then work out the % reduced price you'd have to take. I'm sure that might be the basis for some sort of comparison formula but I'm just spitballing; I'll leave @MCLARKE to finish the job off! MCLARKE and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 205 Look Bsck Smiling 11/2 On the bounce; 7days Tutty had it entered for the 245 and this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivans82 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Didn`t back Masai Mara in the 1350 , but yet again the starter wouldn`t let them go for no apparent reason , he then lets them go when the horse in question wasn`t even pointing the right way . Disgraceful , and anyone who bet the horse will lose their money , unless they are lucky enough to have bet with a firm who will declare it an non runner . LeMale, Bedlam and fd1972uk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 (edited) Jeez, already feels a bad day, lol Had 2nd and 3rd on 1st at sandown, Al mubihr beaten by neck by an outsider and hitman running like a coo. Got a couple of free bets I'll use. Also couple of in plays with WH. 1535 going amirite and k kwetu 1610 ballyadam 1720 pic roc Edited April 27 by fd1972uk Bedlam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 bangers and cash 3.35 ew. black rabbit and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: It is indeed very complicated and there is no easy answer. I did a fairly small analysis when I was allowed to bet with Sky and the conclusion I came to was that you should take the extra places but select the bet at SP because they do not offer BOG in these races. If you want to "equalise" it, the simpler solution would be to split your bet 50/50 and bet both. Or you could just man up and go for the biggie and accept the loss when there is one. LeMale and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 2 hours ago, The Equaliser said: B/Fwd - 70.65 L15's; RC P/L -96.55 (incl L15's) Had 3 x 0.10 L15's on the Daily = 4.50 pts staked for 12 selections 3.35 San Amirite 1 pt ew at 5/1 7 places* = 6.50 stakes * Has anyone got a formula for working out where the value lies in taking Sky bets extra places e.g. I took 5/1 ew for 7 places whereas I could have taken 6/1 with Bet365 for 5 places. Hopefully, Michael @MCLARKE and/or some other mathematical mastermind can come up with an easy-to-use method for me A couple of hopefully helpful points and what i do is...if you can wait until about 5 mins before off, their prices jump up but sometimes not for long. (this only helps on single bets and long prices, the type that i pick, not sure if this happens on lower prices so might not help you) The other way i kind of get around no BOG is, half my bet on sp and half at the price, makes me feel a little better if it drifts and wins/places. But if the price is way below everybody else go with sp. Doesn't answer the question you asked, but hope this is a little helpful. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 On 4/24/2024 at 10:17 AM, richard-westwood said: As im working ...just having a n early look at the weekend racing .....big race of weekend is bet365 gold cup Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 Amirite. 8.9. 10/1 Sam brown 8.4 33/1 Le Milos. 8.3 8/1 Does he know. 8.0 28/1 A very difficult race to rate tbh as a lot of these have only ran on soft since Xmas and now the ground has changed dramatically it's difficult to know where they will be on the tree ........so I've changed tack slightly... with this race .....I've rated as normal .....then historically it's been very difficult for horses over say 11-5 in this race so that cuts out the bottom 3 .....leaving the top 2 again so that's good enough for me .....I'm not saying the others can't win .....in fact I think Sam brown and does he know look overpriced on select form and I could see them placing at big prices but for me I'm looking for value and the top 2 tick the boxes 5pt Ew top 2 Ew 5th ....was hoping for a better run but cest la vie The Equaliser, LeMale, black rabbit and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 520 S Authorised Speef 14/1 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 2 hours ago, Zilzalian said: If you want to "equalise" it, the simpler solution would be to split your bet 50/50 and bet both. Or you could just man up and go for the biggie and accept the loss when there is one. Sorry, somehow i didn't see this and just repeated what you said i think. BBBC and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 37 minutes ago, LeMale said: Sorry, somehow i didn't see this and just repeated what you said i think. Great minds think alike my friend. LeMale, The Equaliser and BBBC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 On 4/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, richard-westwood said: Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂 Thank God for the flat Dicky Boy!! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 (edited) On 4/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, richard-westwood said: Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂 Does the business ....beating the short price fav ....making a nice profit on the day Edited April 27 by richard-westwood BBBC, black rabbit, The Equaliser and 5 others 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 47 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Great minds think alike my friend. Daft ones an all! LeMale and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Well today was majorly disappointing, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 730 w Grandlad 3/1 rfc bateman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 745 d Memories Maker 11/1 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 800 w Great Acclaim 14s ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Bet365 paid 3 places Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 800 w Alioski 28/1 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 830 Alioski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 900 Rubellite ew 18s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 1 hour ago, BBBC said: Daft ones an all! Ah but that boy is far more eloquent than i. But you stick with the daft ones if you want. 🤣🤣🤣 LeMale and BBBC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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