Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Racing chat -saturday 27th april


Recommended Posts

Just now, The Equaliser said:

I feel that Skybet must use some kind of formula.  Sometimes, though you can get a bet at the same price as Bet365 for the extra places so I guess that represents value or is it a dog that's going nowhere?

The only difference is that you would get BOG with BET365

I wouldn't try and overthink it, I would use SKY

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MCLARKE said:

The only difference is that you would get BOG with BET365

I wouldn't try and overthink it, I would use SKY

Unfortunately for me Bet365 refuse to give me BOG.  No explanation from them either.  I think you are right I'll stick with Skybet.  Also, I think @harry_rag is right about going with your gut over the prices/extra places on offer.  Sometimes it looks good and sometimes it doesn't look worth it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I feel that Skybet must use some kind of formula.

Pop on live chat, I'm sure they'd share it! ;)

 

13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Sometimes, though you can get a bet at the same price as Bet365 for the extra places so I guess that represents value or is it a dog that's going nowhere?

Probably sometimes one, sometimes the other. Whether the price is worth taking in the first place depends on your assessment of the horse in question. The obvious thing being, if you're going to back it each way then take the best place option. When the price differs then you have to make a call. I'd tend to say pick out your horses first then see what the best price/terms you can get are. Don't let the number of places "tail" wag the dog. I suppose one measure is to calculate the % of runners you're getting in the place terms, e.g. 5 in a 16 runner race is 31.25% of the field while 7 is 43.75%. That gives you a comparative measure. Then work out the % reduced price you'd have to take.

I'm sure that might be the basis for some sort of comparison formula but I'm just spitballing; I'll leave @MCLARKE to finish the job off! :lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn`t back Masai Mara in the 1350  ,  but yet again the starter wouldn`t let them go for no apparent reason  ,  he then lets them go when the horse in question wasn`t even pointing the right way  . Disgraceful  , and anyone who bet the horse will lose their money  ,  unless they are lucky enough to have bet with a firm who will declare it an non runner .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jeez, already feels a bad day, lol

Had 2nd and 3rd on 1st at sandown, Al mubihr beaten by neck by an outsider and hitman running like a coo.

Got a couple of free bets I'll use. Also couple of in plays with WH.

1535 going amirite and k kwetu

1610 ballyadam

1720 pic roc

Edited by fd1972uk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It is indeed very complicated and there is no easy answer.

I did a fairly small analysis when I was allowed to bet with Sky and the conclusion I came to was that you should take the extra places but select the bet at SP because they do not offer BOG in these races.

If you want to "equalise" it, the simpler solution would be to split your bet 50/50 and bet both. Or you could just man up and go for the biggie and accept the loss when there is one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

B/Fwd - 70.65 L15's; RC P/L -96.55 (incl L15's)

Had 3 x 0.10 L15's on the Daily = 4.50 pts staked for 12 selections

3.35 San Amirite 1 pt ew at 5/1 7 places*

= 6.50 stakes

* Has anyone got a formula for working out where the value lies in taking Sky bets extra places e.g. I took 5/1 ew for 7 places whereas I could have taken 6/1 with Bet365 for 5 places.  Hopefully, Michael @MCLARKE and/or some other mathematical mastermind can come up with an easy-to-use method for me   

A couple of hopefully helpful points and what i do is...if you can wait until about 5 mins before off, their prices jump up but sometimes not for long. (this only helps on single bets and long prices, the type that i pick, not sure if this happens on lower prices so might not help you) The other way i kind of get around no BOG is, half my bet on sp and half at the price, makes me feel a little better if it drifts and wins/places. But if the price is way below everybody else go with sp. Doesn't answer the question you asked, but hope this is a little helpful. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/24/2024 at 10:17 AM, richard-westwood said:

As im working ...just having a n early look at the weekend racing .....big race of weekend is bet365 gold cup 

Kinindo kwetu. 9.0 16/1 

Amirite. 8.9. 10/1 

Sam brown 8.4 33/1 

Le Milos. 8.3 8/1 

Does he know. 8.0 28/1 

A very difficult race to rate tbh as a lot of these have only ran on soft since Xmas and now the ground has changed dramatically it's difficult to know where they will be on the tree ........so I've changed tack slightly... with this race .....I've rated as normal .....then historically it's been very difficult for horses over say 11-5 in this race so that cuts out the bottom 3 .....leaving the top 2 again so that's good enough for me .....I'm not saying the others can't win .....in fact I think Sam brown and does he know look overpriced on select form and I could see them placing at big prices but for me I'm looking for value and the top 2 tick the boxes 

5pt Ew top 2

 

Ew 5th ....was hoping for a better run but cest la vie

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

If you want to "equalise" it, the simpler solution would be to split your bet 50/50 and bet both. Or you could just man up and go for the biggie and accept the loss when there is one.

Sorry, somehow i didn't see this and just repeated what you said i think. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, richard-westwood said:

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

Thank God for the flat Dicky Boy!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
On 4/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, richard-westwood said:

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

Does the business ....beating the short price fav ....making a nice profit on the day 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...