Racing Chat - Saturday April 29th

[The Brigadier]

Ed and the gang at ITV Racing bring us seven races this afternoon with five coming from the seasons National Hunt finale meeting at Sandown where the feature race is the bet365 Gold Cup to be run at 2.15. The ground is riding good on both the hurdles and chase course which is quite surprising when you consider Friday’s flat card was abandoned due to heavy ground! There’s also a good flat turf handicap from both Leicester and Haydock. Here’s my thoughts on the afternoon’s fayre.

 

Sandown 13:05

The days action kicks off with a highly competitive sixteen runner class 2 bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle. Many with chances most notably the Nicky Henderson trained Under Control who’s looked a horse of some promise in winning at Newbury and Cheltenham on good ground this season. She flopped on very soft ground in between at the Cheltenham Frstival but if the ground isn’t too slow she should be thereabouts. She’s one of three JP McManus owned runners in the field with Henderson’s other runner Iberico Lord holding the same chance as Paul Nicholls’ Beau Balko on Stratford form from a month ago.

Many others can be given chances including Ben Pauling’s Joe Dadancer who finally came good last time at Southwell and bottom weight Kansas Du Berlais who’s been doing his winning at Fontwell and must have been hard for handicapper to rate.

Paul Nicholls is finishing the season in terrific form and saddles the top three in the handicap with Harry Cobden appearing to have chosen the four timer seeking Killaloan who is maybe the best of the trio in a race that the master trainer has won twice in the last four years since it’s inception.

A tough race but I’ll stick with Under Control to step forward again for her recent Cheltenham win for which she’s been raised 7lb.

 

UNDER CONTROL 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet354 1/5th 12345

 

Sandown 13:40

Five decent chasers face the starter for the Grade 1 bet365 Celebration Chase run over 1m 7F 99 yards. Nicky Henderson’s smart novice Jonbon is a surprise runner here having won four of his five starts over fences with his only defeat coming in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham behind the useful El Fabiolo. He had a virtual school round at Aintree when a big odds on chance a fortnight ago and has to be a player here.

His big danger and to my eyes the likely winner is the Paul Nicholls trained Greaneteen who’s won this race comfortably for the past two years. The soft ground at Cheltenham was not in his favour and with conditions to suit and officially rated a 9lb superior horse to the novice Jonbon can get the hat trick up here under Harry Cobden.

Irish challenger Captain Guinness ran a stormer at Cheltenham when finishing runner up in the Champion Chase behind Energumene with Greaneteen 24L back in third and Editeur Du Gite a further 3/4L back in 4th with Funambule Sivola crashing out at the third fence. He has claims but back on his favourite course and on less taxing ground conditions it’s Greaneteen for me.

 

GREANETEEN 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365

 

Sandown 14:15

Likely favourite Kittys Light has been placed in the last two renewals of this famous race and comes here having won the Scottish Grand National only a week ago. Unpenalised for that effort he’s 6lb well in and can run well with the only niggling doubt being the fact that last year there was three weeks between the two races where as this time around it’s only a week. If fully over last Saturday’s exertions he should go close though at the prices I’m happy to look elsewhere for the winner although will definitely have a small saver to cover my stakes.

Top weight Frodon has a big task under his weight whilst his trainer Paul Nicholls may have a better chance with Enrilo who’s nicely handicapped and appears to have been trained for this. There shouldn’t be much between Harry Fry’s Revels Hill and Chris Gordon’s Coolvalla on recent Exeter form and I’m surprised that the two aren’t closer together in the betting with the latter at least double Revels Hill’s price.

The one I want to be with is The Goffer who’s over from Gordon Elliott’s stable in Ireland and has an excellent piece of Cheltenham form when 4th in the Ultima with subsequent big race winners in first and second (Tea Clipper behind and held).

 

THE GOFFER 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

COOLVALLA 1 point each way @ 16/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345

KITTYS LIGHT 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

 

Sandown 14:50

Only seven line up for the Grade 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase run over 2M 6 1/2F, a race which Philip Hobb’s Menorah won four times on the bounce from 2014-2017. The one to beat is Shark Hanlon’s flag bearer Hewick who was pulled out of the Punchestown Gold Cup on Wednesday due to the testing ground. He was very impressive on this card last year when taking the bet365 Gold Cup by 8L over a mile further trip than today’s. Today’s trip shouldn’t be an issue as he dropped down to this trip when winning the American Grand National last October. A versatile sort who officially is 10lb and upwards better than his six opponents he should be winning this under Rachael Blackmore.

Eldorado Allen looks far too short in the current betting to me for a horse who doesn’t win often enough whilst Paul Nicholl’s McFabulous has questions to answer now having flopped last time with an irregular heartbeat. He did however win over hurdles on the card last year. His stable mate Solo has 19lb to find with Hewick and will need to improve further.

This looks Hewick’s to lose and unless the ground went soft is a confident selection.

 

HEWICK 2 points win @ 6/4 bet365

 

Leicester 15:05

It’s off to Leicester now for the 1M class 2 King Richard lll Cup Handicap. Eight have declared for a race to be run on soft ground. The favourite and easily the most likely winner is William Haggas’s Al Mubhir. He went off 4/1 favourite for the Lincoln four weeks ago and despite racing freely finished a credible 5th beaten 4L behind Migration. He was 2 1/2L ahead of one of his dangers here today in Bopedro who went in to win at Newmarket and re-opposes Al Mubhir on 6lb worse terms.

It’s hard to fancy top weight Notre Belle Bete who’s been pushed up 7lb for his win on All-Weather Championships day at Newcastle and looks weighted out of this back on the turf.

Sir Michael Stoute saddles Aerion Power and he too may struggle on the likely soft conditions.

Bottom weight Maysong won under a 7lb claimer last time and is 5lb higher now and with no claimer on his back is up against it in this grade whilst Wobwobwob won’t mind the ground and should strip fitter for his latest re-appearance effort.

Al Mubhir has won on heavy ground and off of the same mark as the Lincoln run will be hard to beat under William Buick.

 

AL MUBHIR 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365

 

Sandown 15:25

The Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase is a valuable 2m 4F contest which has attracted a field of nine this year. This year’s renewal looks an open contest with several holding chances. Top weight Cap Du Mathan looks the pick on jockey bookings of the two Paul Nicholls runners and with the horse he was runner up to at Kempton last time Whistleinthedark winning well on Thursday at Perth can take this despite having to give weight to all under the stable’s number one jockey Harry Cobden.

Nicholls’ other runner Quel Destin will be ridden by Bryony Frost and his latest form ties in with Gary Moore’s Hudson De Grugy who loves this track having won four of his seven starts here.

Ben Pauling’s Quinto Do Mar is lightly raced over fences and holds Nicky Henderson’s runner Fable on his recent Fontwell win which has been boosted since by the subsequent success of the runner up Grandads Cottage. He can run well and is favoured over Pauling’s other runner Harpers Brook.

A tough race to call but with Paul Nicholls been crowned Champion NH Trainer for the 14th time today his Cap Du Mathan can take this valuable contest.

 

CAP DU MATHAN 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Haydock 15:45

The only race covered by ITV at the Lancashire track is this 7F class 2 handicap which has attracted a dozen runners. It has an open look about it with the weights headed by Richard Hannon’s Witch Hunter who surely has been weighted out of this with a 6lb rise for a Newcastle 2nd to Diligent Harry pushing him up to 108.

Spycatcher would have to be on my short list having taken the scalp of the well regarded King Athos at Thirsk last Saturday on soft ground. Whether this comes too soon for him only time will tell. Ralph Beckett saddles his progressive 6 year old Biggles, a triple winner as a five year old but has a 175 day’s absence to overcome.

David O’Meara has yet to get really going this turf season and saddles a trio of runners here in Orbaan, The Horse Watcher’s Rhoscolyn, who’s had his wind tinkered with since last seen some 196 days ago and maybe of more interest is the ex Charlie Hills trained Tuscan. He’s been gelded since last seen in September and new connections went to 35,000 guineas to buy him a month later. He won first time out last season from a horse now rated 107 and with O’Meara’s excellent record with other peoples cast offs has to be part of the staking plan.

The other horse I like is Marco Botti’s bottom weight Rainbow Fire who bumped into the smart all weather performer Kingdom Come at Kempton 24 days ago and with that run behind him can run well back on the turf off of just a 3lb higher handicap mark with Neil Callan in the saddle.

 

RAINBOW FIRE 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

TUSCAN 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

[kensland]

Fergal O'brien Patent. 

2.40. Perth. Charles St        10/11

5.40. South. Sunday Soldier     9/1

6.25. Chep.  Nothing to Ask       10/3

stk. 3.50       rtn 95.50.

Good luck all. 

[MCLARKE]

The National Hunt season draws to a close with the running of the BET365 Gold Cup at Sandown, known to many of us old timers as the Whitbread Gold Cup. This event was established in 1957 and was the first commercial sponsorship in British sport. The race is run over 3 miles, 4 furlongs and 146 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older and the off time is 14.15.

18 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this a very good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The ideal age is 7. These horses have produced 5 wins from 20 runs with a level stakes profit at SP of 30 points. The remainder have a record of 3 wins from 118 runs and a loss of 54 points.

Horses should have had a reasonable rest. All the winners last ran between 19 and 63 days ago and produced a profit of 22 points from 92 attempts. The remainder had 0 wins from 46 runs.

1st and 2nd favourites have a poor record with 1 win from 24 runs and a loss of 12 points.

 

Just 2 horses fit these criteria.

 

COOLVALLA 16/1

MUCHO MAS 14/1

 

I suggest backing these with bookmakers paying 6 places.

[vikki37]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

The National Hunt season draws to a close with the running of the BET365 Gold Cup at Sandown, known to many of us old timers as the Whitbread Gold Cup. This event was established in 1957 and was the first commercial sponsorship in British sport. The race is run over 3 miles, 4 furlongs and 146 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older and the off time is 14.15.

18 go to post and some bookmakers are offering each-way terms of 6 places which make this a very good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The ideal age is 7. These horses have produced 5 wins from 20 runs with a level stakes profit at SP of 30 points. The remainder have a record of 3 wins from 118 runs and a loss of 54 points.

Horses should have had a reasonable rest. All the winners last ran between 19 and 63 days ago and produced a profit of 22 points from 92 attempts. The remainder had 0 wins from 46 runs.

1st and 2nd favourites have a poor record with 1 win from 24 runs and a loss of 12 points.

 

Just 2 horses fit these criteria.

 

COOLVALLA 16/1

MUCHO MAS 14/1

 

I suggest backing these with bookmakers paying 6 places.

I likes these two just by past races and gut feeling but was waiting for someone to tip them as well and then go for it haha🤣🤣

[MCLARKE]

1 minute ago, vikki37 said:

I likes these two just by past races and gut feeling but was waiting for someone to tip them as well and then go for it haha

I always like these races where they pay 6 places, very good value

[vikki37]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I always like these races where they pay 6 places, very good value

Definitely.. I'm surprised skybet didn't go 7 places this time as they usually do. 

[kensland]

Punchestown. 

Single. 

4.25. Flegmatik         13/2

stk 5.00    rtn. 37.50.

---------------------------

Patents. 

1.55. Leic.  Spanish Phoenix     11/4

2.30. Leic.  Prosecco                     11/4

4.40. Ripon. Australian Angel       5/1

stk 3.50      rtn 78.47.

--------------

7.15. Donc. Down to the Kid          5/1

8.30. Wolv. Crazy Spin                     11/8

9.00. Wolv.  Okeanes                        4/1

stk 3.50      70.38.

Good luck all 

 

[black rabbit]

Nusret                                         5 00 Pun/                   1/40th of a pt ew  20/1

Court Master                             2 15 San/                    1/40t of a pt ew    33/1

Brian The Snail                          2 05 Hay/                    1/40th of a pt ew 38/1

Midnight Mystro                       2 35 Pun/                    1/40th of a pt ew  25/1

Regina Dracones                      3 10 Pun/                    1/40th of a pt ew  66/1

 

 

 

P/L    + 159.25 pt

Edited April 29, 2023 by black rabbit

[fd1972uk]

Demiana (4/1) pipped at post at rosehill (aus) 635, looks a decent horse,  but not the greatest start and got boxed in a little, but finished strong, pipped by outsider Healing Oasis (18/1).

[Sporting Sam]

Japan

 

Saga 7.55 am

Morgen

Win

Running in win cycles of three races best performance since last win second here latest.

Ecoro Pegasus

Each way

May get a lead from this horse drawn together 

[richard-westwood]

410 ripon 

Vintage clarets  8.6 9/4 

Justanotgerbottle  8.6 15/2 

Copper Knight  8.5 9/1 

Illusionist    8.4 5/1 

Classy sprint ....any one of these could win this .....vintage clarets sets a good standard but no value considering  how close it looks ....I'll try 5pt ew justanother and copper and hope they beat the fav 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

-£18.60 after 4 days it’s now or never 🤞

[Sporting Sam]

52 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Japan

 

Saga 7.55 am

Morgen

Win

Running in win cycles of three races best performance since last win second here latest.

Ecoro Pegasus

Each way

May get a lead from this horse drawn together 

Morgen second.

Saga 9 am

This race is full of last time out winners. At decent odds two runners both win.

Spinal

Conquer

Both win

Both have collaborative form being first and second latest.

[richard-westwood]

Ý345 hay 

Spycatcher  8.4  9/2 

Rainbow fire   8.3 5/1 

Biggles 8.1 

Orbaan   8.0 

Gweedore  7.7 

4pt wins top 2 

[kensland]

Patent.

3.35. Ripn. It's Good to Laugh           4/1    unpl

3.45. Hayd. Spycatcher                       4/1     unpl

8.15. Donc. Cinque Verde                  4/1      

stk.3.50      rtn. 107.50

Good luck all.

Edited April 29, 2023 by kensland

[pa4410]

Sandown 

1.05 - Sergeant Wilson  12/1

2.15 -  Coolvalla  14/1

 

Punchestown 

3.10 - Sir Bob  15/2

5.30 - Horantzau D'airy   10 /1

 

 

 

[pa4410]

lucky 15 

 Leicester   3.05 - Bopedro  6/1

Leicester   4.15 - Hour by Hour  11/4

Haydock   4.20 - Deceiver   7/2

Ripon 5.50 - Gemini Star   4/1

[Sporting Sam]

3 hours ago, sporting sam said:

Morgen second.

Saga 9 am

This race is full of last time out winners. At decent odds two runners both win.

Spinal

Conquer

Both win

Both have collaborative form being first and second latest.

Saga 1210

Rheine element

Each way

Good return to form last run on anniversary of last win on course.

Kitakarakitamusume

Each way

No immediate signs of return to some decent form but ability.

[Sporting Sam]

24 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Saga 1210

Rheine element

Each way

Good return to form last run on anniversary of last win on course.

Kitakarakitamusume

Each way

No immediate signs of return to some decent form but ability.

That's that for another day.

Big in Japan!!

The selection hadn't won since 9th April 22 but won for the system today.

[The Equaliser]

A busy Saturday again with so many races to choose from.  I will go with a lot of 0.5 win bets plus L15 and Acca on Daily 15 for 4 points

1.05 San Berties Wish 0.50 ew at 33/1 Brian Hughes only mount of the day

2.15 San Enrillo 0.50 win at 17/2 HC

2.50 San Fantastic Lady 0.50 win at 8/1 NdB

3.25 San Fable 0.50 win at 12/1 NdB

1.30 Hd Thunder Max 0.50 win at 9/2 (KS Amo)

2.05 Hd Street Life 0.50 win at 12/1 (BL)

3.45 Hd SPy Catcher 0.50 win at 9/2

4.20 Hd Coco Jack 0.50 win at 10/1 (BJ)

4.55 HD Serenity Rose 0.50 win at 8/1 (BJ)

5.00 Pun Nusret 0.50 win at 12/1 @black rabbit

2.30 Leic Morder (OM) 0.50 win at 15/2 and Limerick Bound 0.50 win at 15/2 (WB)

3.40 Leic Silent FLame (OM) 0.50 win at 9/2 (OM) and Cold store 0.50 win at 4/1 (WB)

4.50 Leic Order of St John (OM) 0.50 win at 10/1

4.10 Rip Copper Knight 0.50 win at 10/1 and Justanotherbottle 0.50 win at 17/2

7.45 Don Timewave 0.50 win at 13/2 and Dancing Gypsy 0.5win at 8/1

8.15 Don Desert Illusion (BdS) 0.50 win at 28/1

8.00 Cafe Sydney (LM) 0.50 win at 11/1

Total stakes = 15 points

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just one winner in the L15 and a non-runner so returns were 3.00 hence a loss of 12 points.  I should have included a couple that won; annoyed with myself for not including Aaddey in the 4.40 at Ripon with Hollie Doyle aboard.  Should have had Under Control, didn't realise it drifted to 7/1

I will continue with my favourite jockeys and trainers into the new month of May.  I exclude all runners 3/1 and under

MTD -23.03 & YTD -7.85

 

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[harry_rag]

On 4/28/2023 at 8:22 AM, The Brigadier said:

UNDER CONTROL 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet354 1/5th 12345

Stuck a tenner on this with the Lad's money back offer on the race. Suffice to say I don't need to find another selection to put the freebie on!

[Tedthewolf]

1.5 e/w 2.05 Haydock BRIAN THE SNAIL 28/1 

3pts invested

[Sporting Sam]

 

1.55

Leicester 

SPANISH PHOENIX

Win

If he copes with the turf and soft really ought to win well.

Showed up nicely once the penny dropped on debut at Kempton.

No cover here though with two rivals, so whoever handles that the best wins.

 

[Tedthewolf]

0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts

Rhoscolyn @ 14/1

Haydock 15:45 - Winner

4 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

Enrilo @ 8/1

Sandown 14:15 - Winner

6 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

Enjoy Dallen @ 16/1

Punchestown 15:10 - Winner

5 - 1/ 5

 

Returns £0.00

The Shunter @ 16/1

Punchestown 17:30 - Winner

5 - 1/5

[fd1972uk]

 

21 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Stuck a tenner on this with the Lad's money back offer on the race. Suffice to say I don't need to find another selection to put the freebie on!

Do you mean Ladbrokes? Is this selected customers or am I not seeing it somewhere?

Went out 7/1 which was good, used 888 mb offer, did have the fav too, but hey ho, good win anyway.

Jonbon up on my betfair doubles,  so either Kitty's Light or preferably Revels Hill will do nicely.

Have used coral bb on the race too for Enrilo and b365 25% boost with coolvalla ew 6 pl.

Pun 1510 sir Bob

Pun 1635 ramilies

Hay 1545 spycatcher

San 1525 cap du mattan 

Betfair bets will open another couple of multiples later so will have another 2 or more bets.

[fd1972uk]

10 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

 

1.55

Leicester 

SPANISH PHOENIX

Win

If he copes with the turf and soft really ought to win well.

Showed up nicely once the penny dropped on debut at Kempton.

No cover here though with two rivals, so whoever handles that the best wins.

 

Ended up pulling that out my betfair doubles (well would have been treble), was too scared to risk it, the fav had been pulled prior I saw, ahh well.

Well done.

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Do you mean Ladbrokes? Is this selected customers or am I not seeing it somewhere?

I do mean Ladbrokes. It may well be selected customers only (I'm not on their sh*tlist unlike a few other firms). You might not be seeing it somewhere though! 

Sometimes I get a text or email promoting the offer but I just noticed a banner on the app today and came on here to look for inspiration.

[Sporting Sam]

 

Haydock 2.05

Street life

Stay smart

Both win

They are running late 

[Sporting Sam]

2.30

Leicester

 

Naqeeb

Win

 

Son of Nathaniel and half brother to the lost talent of Baaeed.

Entered in the derby and should go well on debut. Holds another entry to a maiden on Monday the only worry. But my fiver is on.

[Sporting Sam]

Figures

2252-95531325663P-24P0441621118333-34-UPP

Fairyhill run

Each way.

Awful figures but good enough to take part in grand national latest. Last win 2021.

My design

Win

Everything points to a big run here.