Tennis Tips - April 24 - April 30

[CzechPunter]

[Swami]

Mladenovic + 4,5 vs. Errani @ 2

I got the odds last night and they look really good to me… the old Mladenovic would have taken care of Errani easily in the fast conditions of Madrid, the 2023 version might lose to the Italian (even if I’m not sure…) but I don’t see her to be trashed, if she can limit the UEs… Errani always suffered the heavy hitters and the H2H (very old in reality) says 4-1 Kiki 

[Swami]

Tomova + Rakhimova + Struff @ 1.76

I don’t see any of them having problems passing the 1st round of qualis vs. far inferior players (if healthy of course)

[sterziyskii]

Played prerty much the same matches and Shevchenko + Piros

[CzechPunter]

Leylah Fernandez to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.62 with William Hill

Mirra Andreeva is the next big thing in tennis, and she has a 13-0 record to her name so far this year. However, she's yet to face a player of Fernandez's calibre, and I think that she won't be able to deal with the consistency that Fernandez can bring to the table. She's a legitimate top 20 player when she's in form, and she rarely loses to worse players (aside from the odd loss against Bonaventure at the start of the season, she's lost only against other top players so far in this season).

[sterziyskii]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Leylah Fernandez to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.62 with William Hill

Mirra Andreeva is the next big thing in tennis, and she has a 13-0 record to her name so far this year. However, she's yet to face a player of Fernandez's calibre, and I think that she won't be able to deal with the consistency that Fernandez can bring to the table. She's a legitimate top 20 player when she's in form, and she rarely loses to worse players (aside from the odd loss against Bonaventure at the start of the season, she's lost only against other top players so far in this season).

Looks like a great bet. Andreeva is playing only against players outside of top 200.

For today I will go with Cirstea, Muchova, Tomova and Hanfmann at 3.30. All seem to be in a great form. 

Muchova and Hanfmann must win easy. Tomova right now for me is the betrer player and Cirstea even tho hasn't played clay this year, she seems to be in a great form and must win this one.

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by sterziyskii

[sterziyskii]

Piros at 1.80 and Ofner at 1.70. On both of the matches the odds are falling hard. Both of the players are in great form and Ofner is a clay player getting 1.70 against Safiullin.

[Swami]

Ivashka vs. Ramos-Vinolas @1.72

Ramos-Vinolas hasn’t won a match in many weeks now, and in recent years never had good results in Madrid, the fast conditions also should help Ivashka in taking this one

[Swami]

I’m also tempted by Sasnovich as underdog vs. Svitolina… not an easy first round for the Ukrainian, Sasnovich has the weapons to hurt her and is notoriously an underachiever that in a good day can make it difficult for any top player, let alone Svitolina who just got back after a quite long time

[sterziyskii]

Ruusuvuori to beat Humbert.

Wawrinka to advance against Cressy.

Carballes Baena to win a set at 1.28

And I would typically go for a Fernandez win at 1.65 but I'll secure it by just winning a set at 1.30. I think it will be almost impossible for the 16 years old Andreeva to win here. 

Total odds: 3.70. 

[Smiles Tennis]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Leylah Fernandez to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.62 with William Hill

Mirra Andreeva is the next big thing in tennis, and she has a 13-0 record to her name so far this year. However, she's yet to face a player of Fernandez's calibre, and I think that she won't be able to deal with the consistency that Fernandez can bring to the table. She's a legitimate top 20 player when she's in form, and she rarely loses to worse players (aside from the odd loss against Bonaventure at the start of the season, she's lost only against other top players so far in this season).

She's 18-1 if you include the Aussie Open Juniors final as well.

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid - Rus to beat Anisimova - 2.75 with Bet365 

Rus is 11-2 this year on clay and although she's beaten mostly lower ranked players her confidence should be high. She's come through qualifying without dropping a set and beating Friedsam as underdog. 

Anisimova however has lost 5/6, beating only Zvonareva (#436). She hasn't played on clay since the FO last year either. She's lost her last three matches including retiring last time out in Miami. 

She is the better player but I think with her form and injuries along with lack of playing time on clay, she's too short here so going with Rus at 2.75. 

[CzechPunter]

Sasnovich looks like a good bet to me also, despite how much I like Svitolina as a player. I'm only very slightly worried about her lack of clay court practice, but she should nevertheless be better physically.

[Torque]

8 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA Madrid - Rus to beat Anisimova - 2.75 with Bet365 

Rus is 11-2 this year on clay and although she's beaten mostly lower ranked players her confidence should be high. She's come through qualifying without dropping a set and beating Friedsam as underdog. 

Anisimova however has lost 5/6, beating only Zvonareva (#436). She hasn't played on clay since the FO last year either. She's lost her last three matches including retiring last time out in Miami. 

She is the better player but I think with her form and injuries along with lack of playing time on clay, she's too short here so going with Rus at 2.75. 

Nice pick 

[sterziyskii]

Copied Sasnovich and Rus. Nice one there.

Ruse at 2.10 against Cornet.  Cornet has 1 win this year against Dart..

Edited April 26, 2023 by sterziyskii

[Smiles Tennis]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

Nice pick 

Thanks mate. I checked a few times before the start and saw she had come down to about 2.52 so good to see. Does anyone on here know where we can find Pinnacle closing odds for tennis? Or Betfair price when the match starts?

I checked the suggestions in these comments: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3627611-there-easy-way-get-pinnacle-closing-odds-data.html but can't find tennis ones anywhere. 

Be good to know if picks are beating the final price, Pinnacle or Betfair as they're both fairly accurate for this. Anyone point me anywhere else for this info?

[Torque]

25 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Thanks mate. I checked a few times before the start and saw she had come down to about 2.52 so good to see. Does anyone on here know where we can find Pinnacle closing odds for tennis? Or Betfair price when the match starts?

I checked the suggestions in these comments: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3627611-there-easy-way-get-pinnacle-closing-odds-data.html but can't find tennis ones anywhere. 

Be good to know if picks are beating the final price, Pinnacle or Betfair as they're both fairly accurate for this. Anyone point me anywhere else for this info?

There used to be a pinnacle api but not sure if it's still live. I wouldn't fixate on pinnacle closing lines though - they aren't the be all and end all, despite what you might read.

[Smiles Tennis]

59 minutes ago, Torque said:

There used to be a pinnacle api but not sure if it's still live. I wouldn't fixate on pinnacle closing lines though - they aren't the be all and end all, despite what you might read.

Fair enough, i won't spend all my time hunting anymore then lol

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid - Haddad Maia to beat Andreeva - 1.8 William Hill

Andreeva the starlet of the tour at the moment who is on fire this year as well. Saying that her win against Fernandez was her only victory against a current top 50 player.

Maia lost to an out of form Niemeier but then had two opponents retire against her in Stuttgart before losing to Jabeur which is no shame. If anything she is fresh. She might not be bang on form but I expect her to be a bit shorter so 1.8 is value for me. 

Andreeva is 5-4 against lefties (4-2 on clay) so she has that in her favour but she will need to continue her rich vein of form against a higher class of opponent this time and I think it might be a bit too much to ask of her. 

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Madrid - Kvitova to beat Niemeier - 1.45 on Betfair

Niemeier horribly out of form, 4-12 this year with half her wins indoors. Kvitova taking lots of time to chill so she's fresh to compete. Coming off a win in Miami she will no doubt have been practising on the dirt so will be ready to smash it. 

Everything Niemeier can do Kvitova can do levels above. I was expecting 1.3 on Kvitova so all over 1.45.

[Swami]

52 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

WTA Madrid - Kvitova to beat Niemeier - 1.45 on Betfair

Niemeier horribly out of form, 4-12 this year with half her wins indoors. Kvitova taking lots of time to chill so she's fresh to compete. Coming off a win in Miami she will no doubt have been practising on the dirt so will be ready to smash it. 

Everything Niemeier can do Kvitova can do levels above. I was expecting 1.3 on Kvitova so all over 1.45.

Kvitova didn’t play in Stuttgart due to a foot injury, hence the odds, that normally should have been, as you wrote, 1.30 or less

[Swami]

Lajovic @1.65 vs. Kubler looks good to me, I understand he just won Banka Luka but he had few days to rest and after defeating Djokovic, Kecmanovic and Rublev he might find Kubler an easier opponent to play with… also, next round the winner plays Auger-Aliassime, who hasn’t played a match in a month…

I like also Shevchenko over Wolf, the American plays his first European clay tournament in 3 years, and Shevchenko comes out of the qualis winning both matches 2-0 (3 tie-breaks won)… Americans in general don’t find themselves very much at home in these European tournaments… look at the bloodbath of American female players till now in Madrid. Odds around 1.65.

[Smiles Tennis]

7 hours ago, Swami said:

Kvitova didn’t play in Stuttgart due to a foot injury, hence the odds, that normally should have been, as you wrote, 1.30 or less

Ah OK.  Good point.  I haven't been following tennis for a while and just started to get back into pricing matches again.  I wasn't aware of her injury.  I should've researched better! Cheers for the info. 

[sterziyskii]

Jarry against Safiullin at 1.40. Safiullin is a tricky player sometimes but I will go with the more experienced clay player.

Garin at 1.30 against Huesler. I think this will be a pretty easy match. 

I will also go with Kvitova at 1.38.

Haddad Maia to win at 1.65 or to win a set at 1.30 which is a safe and easy bet in my opinion. 

Also wondering if I should play Thiem to win 2:0 at 1.45-1.50? Edmund doesnt have a win over a top 100 player from September 2020. He is struggling and is winless this season. Thiem plays better and said himself that he doesn't feel pain in his wrist and his forehand looks better than months ago. 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by sterziyskii

[CzechPunter]

I very much agree with you on Haddad Maia guys, hope she won't let us down!

Anhelina Kalinina to beat Mayar Sherif at 1.61 with Unibet

Sherif was lucky yesterday, as she would have been done and out without Giorgi having physical problems. The courts are pretty fast, which should suit Kalinina, and she's on a much higher level overall. She's also a bit like Masarova with her big hitting, to which Sherif lost recetly.

[Swami]

Molcan + Hurkacz @1.94

Molcan has better results than Nishioka on clay, has allready beaten him recently 2-1 in Miami, and has won the 1R quite comfortably… Hurkacz defends the 2022 Qf in Madrid and should be able to overpower Gasquet easily imo

[CzechPunter]

Not a good week unfortunately.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Marie Bouzkova at 2.32 with Unibet

Despite the bad week, I have to bet this after seeing Bouzkova play in Oeiras. Her form is really bad this season, and she's admitted that she's currently trying new things, so I wouldn't be surprised by another bad performance from her here. Sasnovich was decent enough against Sviti.

[CzechPunter]

Well, I'll take the weekend off, not reading Madrid well at all, but good luck to everyone who's getting involved!

[ejmali333]

Zapata to beat Evans @ 2,10 bet365

It’s clay, Spain... Zapata should love this! Evans went deep in the previous tournament and I feel like everyone will be on him because of form… and I know not everyone wins im betting 😊 Besides that I'm not sure how good he really is on clay... He overperformed on clay this season and this has to stop somewhere, at some point and this feels like the right place and time for it to happen.

Zapata to beat Evans 2:0 @ 3,50 bet365

If my call is right, it should be an easy win for Zapata with basically no resistance from Evans... and on top of that Zapata already lost a set against McDonald(s) in the first round so I'm expecting an easier win here.

Etcheverry to beat Tiafoe @ 2,30 bet365

It was very close in Houston in favour of Tiafoe, but you feel like he was always going to win there, in the US... and this one should go in the other direction, if there is another close match. Etcheverry is a clay court specialist with a decent season so far, but we are still waiting for a big breakout win/tournament... Even though, this is my least favourite bet of the day out of these three!

Niemeier to beat Mertens @ 2,30 bet365

I love when a player is out of form as Niemeier and then comes back out of nowhere and basically everyone is against her "she is out of form, lost 14 out of 16 matches this year so far...". She is a professional tennis player, can't be losing all the time, otherwise she would be out of WTA and serious competition... and to be honest Mertens feels like very beatable player on clay!

I usually bet this at my local bookie and add a few low odds (1,1-1,3) matches like:

Seyboth Wild to beat Navone @ 1,30 bet365

Edited April 29, 2023 by ejmali333

[sterziyskii]

I'm not really feeling it as well. Anyway I will go with Garcia, Cerundolo and Fritz.