Tennis Tips - March 20 - March 26

[four-leaf]

18 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Gauff/Pegula vs the Fruhvirtova's - Doubles Miami Open 

Linda & Brenda together ?

Not a good combination

[sterziyskii]

For tomorrow what do you think about Kubler, Manarrino and Sonego at around @3-3.10 with a large stake? (maybe add Halys as well). Every match of these seems like an easy one for me

[four-leaf]

36 minutes ago, sterziyskii said:

For tomorrow what do you think about Kubler, Manarrino and Sonego at around @3-3.10 with a large stake? (maybe add Halys as well). Every match of these seems like an easy one for me

I wouldn't trust Mannarino to get past my grandma.

[Torque]

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

For tomorrow what do you think about Kubler, Manarrino and Sonego at around @3-3.10 with a large stake? (maybe add Halys as well). Every match of these seems like an easy one for me

In my experience not one of those players can be relied upon. Kubler has almost constant physical issues which hamper him, Mannarino is decent in very specific conditions but even then has a tendency to lose matches he should be winning and Sonego is inconsistent. I'd be looking elsewhere for a short odds treble.

[Swami]

I’m curious to see who is gonna play Borges next… he played 6 matches in 5 days, today he had also a medical timeout. ?

[sterziyskii]

Well all 3 were moved for tomorrow nvm. 

Daniel T against Rinderknech at 1.70, Nakashima and Bogdan?

Also as you said Borges is playing against Ruusuvuvuori but still there are no odds for this one, might go with the Finland if the odds are nice.

[CzechPunter]

Xinyu Wang to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam at 1.80 with William Hill

Leylah Fernandez to beat Lesya Tsurenko at 1.80 with BetVictor

Taking these two today, and I agree that Borges should be absolutely tired after his recent exploits. Truth be told, I don't get the odds for Wang and Fernandez all that much. I rate them both a class above their opponents, and they haven't done much wrong lately, with Fernandez losing only against Garcia in Indian Wells and with Wang getting nice wins against Mertens + Alexandrova before losing against Krejcikova, which is hardly a letdown.

[Swami]

51 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Xinyu Wang to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam at 1.80 with William Hill

Leylah Fernandez to beat Lesya Tsurenko at 1.80 with BetVictor

Taking these two today, and I agree that Borges should be absolutely tired after his recent exploits. Truth be told, I don't get the odds for Wang and Fernandez all that much. I rate them both a class above their opponents, and they haven't done much wrong lately, with Fernandez losing only against Garcia in Indian Wells and with Wang getting nice wins against Mertens + Alexandrova before losing against Krejcikova, which is hardly a letdown.

I think you are right, I would have bet the same but in the WTA, in the 1R, I don’t go against players that come out from the qualis. Yesterday qualifiers won an astonishing 6 in 7 matches, 7 in 7 if you count that Schmiedlova lost to Tomova, another qualifier lucky loser. But I agree that Wang and Fernandez are tougher players than the opponents.

[sterziyskii]

Fucsovic to beat Cachin 2:0 at 1.75. Watched Fucsovic in Indian Wells beating Wolf, De Minaur and Molcan and seems to be getting to his form from back in the days. Cachin is only a clay player and even on clay he has only 2 wins this season over Monteiro and Basilashvili (both in terrible form).

[Nes*]

Any opinion about Kovalik? 

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

Fucsovic to beat Cachin 2:0 at 1.75. Watched Fucsovic in Indian Wells beating Wolf, De Minaur and Molcan and seems to be getting to his form from back in the days. Cachin is only a clay player and even on clay he has only 2 wins this season over Monteiro and Basilashvili (both in terrible form).

I'll go with the acca Xinyu Wang to beat Friedsam 1.84 and Fucso -1.5 sets 1.68 at a total of 3.09 with Unibet

It should make my day!

[Grass Cash]

William Hill:

Christian Garin to beat Giron @ -125

I've spoken about GArin. He is one of my players, and I doubted him last match. He sometimes starts slow, but he quickly grabbed form, and outclased TAbilo. I see similar type of scenario vs Giron who does not have the consistency and spin from the baseline. I also think Garin's serve can sometimes be especially potent, and he could rival Giron in a serving contest on a good day. I imagine that he has adjusted the courts now in Miami, and already has two matches in his belt. For me this is a no brainer.. If you don't like the Garin side.. there is no real way you can bet Giron, and be confident. 

 

[Swami]

I see 4 matches in the WTA that might be more contested than what the odds suggest.

Tomova @4.5 vs. Collins

Golubic @4.7 vs. Samsonova

Rodina @4.7 vs. Linette

Martincova @4.3 vs. Haddad Maia

I'm not saying that the underdogs will prevail in the end, but one or a couple of them might come close, leaving some room for going all green.

[CzechPunter]

Yosuke Watanuki to beat Benoit Paire at 1.70 with Unibet

Going for one men's today, let's hope it won't turn the record around! Watanuki has improved since his first match here, and he beat Paire quite handily not that long ago. Paire showed his better side against Kokkinakis, but I think he still should be a bigger underdog against opponents that can frustrate him in various ways, and I think there's every chance he'll return to his usual side today.

[Foo_Fighter]

Xiyu Wang to beat Petra Martic at 2.00 with bet365

Julia Grabher to beat (+4.5 games) Claire Liu at 2.00 with bet365

Wang was terrific against Brenda Fruhvirtova. Hope she plays on a similar level today. Wang defeated Martic (6-3, 6-4 Thailand Open 2020) in their lone meeting so far on tour.

[Swami]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yosuke Watanuki to beat Benoit Paire at 1.70 with Unibet

Going for one men's today, let's hope it won't turn the record around! Watanuki has improved since his first match here, and he beat Paire quite handily not that long ago. Paire showed his better side against Kokkinakis, but I think he still should be a bigger underdog against opponents that can frustrate him in various ways, and I think there's every chance he'll return to his usual side today.

I've seen that Kokkinakis got back in the draw as a lucky loser... It's possible he already knew and did let Benoit win the match ?

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, Swami said:

I've seen that Kokkinakis got back in the draw as a lucky loser... It's possible he already knew and did let Benoit win the match ?

I don't think so. Lucky losers aren't based on seedings any more. All losers go into a draw for any main draw places that become available.

[Grass Cash]

I think Kostyuk is going to beat Potapova, but these aren't odds I feel good about, and I've underestimated Potapova before.  Anybody else agree with this? I'm actually considering it now because I want action. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by money44

[Foo_Fighter]

I had picked Roberto Carballes Baena to beat Bernabe Zapata... 6-0, 3-0 RET lol ? 

[sterziyskii]

What do you think about Sonego? I did bet on Thiem a couple of times recently hoping he will start getting his form back but his forehand is really affected after the injuries he had and I think he is not winning here.

[Grass Cash]

1 minute ago, sterziyskii said:

What do you think about Sonego? I did bet on Thiem a couple of times recently hoping he will start getting his form back but his forehand is really affected after the injuries he had and I think he is not winning here.

never even considered the match.. I usually will back Sonego or stay off the match entirely.  Won't be surprised if he wins, but didn't see any value like it was for sure going to come in.. I think he's better indoors, grass, and clay. 

[Grass Cash]

William Hill: Camila Giorgi to beat Azarenka @ +162

I've been sitting on this pick all day.. I am surprised nobody wrote about it. I placed this bet last night.. Thought it over, and never lost confidence in this bet for the slightest.. It is absolutely insane value because I have this match rated as a dead coinflip on who wins. So the betting line is actually off by 72 points in my opinion. Azarenka's current form has looked terrible if you saw her at Indian Wells, and Giorgi played a phenomenal match vs Kanepi who was playing well, and still managed to advance despite losing a couple leads in the match.

I will even admit and take it to the fair where I would line Giorgi as the favorite @ around -145 odds. I think that is a fair price. Azarenka is getting older, and being at poor form in Indian Wells is a very bad sign if you want to back her to win matches. The conditions are very similar. Miami is faster courts tho which could help her, but Giorgi is also good on fast courts sometimes.

Edited March 23, 2023 by money44

[Swami]

Gracheva @ 3.10 vs Jabeur

Not much to say here, if Jabeur is fit and confident she should win this one, but she hasn't been for a while now... on the other hand Gracheva is probably in the best moment of her career. Definitely worth a try in my opinion.

[Swami]

32 minutes ago, money44 said:

William Hill: Camila Giorgi to beat Azarenka @ +162

I've been sitting on this pick all day.. I am surprised nobody wrote about it. I placed this bet last night.. Thought it over, and never lost confidence in this bet for the slightest.. It is absolutely insane value because I have this match rated as a dead coinflip on who wins. So the betting line is actually off by 72 points in my opinion. Azarenka's current form has looked terrible if you saw her at Indian Wells, and Giorgi played a phenomenal match vs Kanepi who was playing well, and still managed to advance despite losing a couple leads in the match.

I will even admit and take it to the fair where I would line Giorgi as the favorite @ around -145 odds. I think that is a fair price. Azarenka is getting older, and being at poor form in Indian Wells is a very bad sign if you want to back her to win matches. The conditions are very similar. Miami is faster courts tho which could help her, but Giorgi is also good on fast courts sometimes.

it's a little bit late in the night where I live, but should be fun to watch and possibly to bet live... both players are able to blow any leads they have... Camila was 5-0 in the third against Kanepi, won 7-6... Vika recently lost to Bencic a match that in the second set was practically closed... I've seen Camila practicing on clay few times, I really enjoy her firepower...

[Grass Cash]

She's going to win Swami, place the bet.. I've never been this hot betting in all my life .. Everything i'm touching is winning.

[Grass Cash]

Sofia Kenin to beat Kalinina @ 2.0 odds with William Hill

Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Barbora Krejcikova @ 4.75 odds with William Hill

I am skipping bad analysis this time, and ultimately taking a break after these win or lose. I tried to help but it has become a bit stressful.  Regardless, I love these two plays, and very excited about watching the matches. I am fully expecting them both to win, and will be dissapointed with any other result. Good luck gentleman and ladies!

[CzechPunter]

Petra Kvitova to beat Linda Noskova at 1.53 with William Hill

Well, Kvitova is still the better player in general, but the more important angle is that Noskova will be playing against someone she has a lot of respect for and who she looked up when developing her tennis skills. First meeting as well as far as I know, which could make things very difficult in terms of nerves and stuff. 

[sterziyskii]

What do you think about Grigor against Struff? Haven't watched Struff recently but he is performing only on Challangers. 

[Swami]

Fucsovics vs Rune

I think Rune is a bit overrated… on hard courts he never had brilliant results, and lately he also had some phisycal issues. Fucsovics is a solid player, maybe less talented than Rune but not an easy one to face when you are not at your best. I think I’ll take Fucsovics + 1,5 sets, but could also put something on him @3+.   

[Grass Cash]

44 minutes ago, Swami said:

Fucsovics vs Rune

I think Rune is a bit overrated… on hard courts he never had brilliant results, and lately he also had some phisycal issues. Fucsovics is a solid player, maybe less talented than Rune but not an easy one to face when you are not at your best. I think I’ll take Fucsovics + 1,5 sets, but could also put something on him @3+.   

I've already bet Fucsovics.. I think the line is a fraud, and it's a close match.. If Marton serves well he could cause problems. Good luck! .. I don't think he's a trustworthy player, but at those odds.. I figured it was reasonable to try him in "one parlay".