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German Masters


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  • 2 weeks later...
6 hours ago, charliepie said:

Neil is the only big gun on show which is strange, no Ronnie, Judd, John or Marks x3, Jack might never have a better chance to bag a ranking tournie win!

Think Kyren Wilson is playing too. You're right this is another great chance for him but looks short for somebody who has never won 

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  • Fader changed the title to German Masters

so, with no Golf, Snooker, Darts or Cricket to speak of, I've taken another look at The German Masters which get going Wednesday 3rd feb at The Tempodome in Berlin. Quite a small ranking event really and as eluded to above, the only "big names" this week really are Neil Robertson, Kyren Wilson and Jack Lisowski. Lisowski is very much due a ranking win but at 4/1 for him to beat Anda, Yisong, Guodong or Zhengyi and then beat Kyren Wilson AND Neil Robertson (potentially) plus he has to beat his own demons of that first win, you can see 4/1 is no value at all.

No value on Neil, no value on Ali Carter, who has a mistake in him but yet still is single digits. Walden looked absolutely terrible last time we saw him and yet he is coming out at 11s. For me, it's all about the outsiders in this event. I'll take 2 from top, 2 from bottom and little quarter point ews on Wakelin and Zhengyi. Purely for one reason. He (Wakelin) has made alot of money from the Shoot Out. He got top break too and so he has no worries whatsoever coming into this event. With that kind of freedom, this is one event and likely the only event all season that I'll give him a half point e/w shot.

2pts e/w A.McGill to win German Masters 20/1 willhill
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0.5pts e/w Guodong to win German Masters 50/1 betfred
0.5pts e/w Yupeng to win German Masters 50/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w Milkins to win German Masters 50/1 bet365
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0.25pts e/w Zhengyi to win German Masters 100/1 coral
0.25pts e/w Wakelin to win German Masters 125/1 bet365

 

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19 hours ago, Fader said:

Think Kyren Wilson is playing too. You're right this is another great chance for him but looks short for somebody who has never won 

Haha, Kyren "Table 1" Wilson doesn't make my big guns list:-) It would be nice to see a big priced winner so I'm rooting for the 50/1 and over shots.

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4 hours ago, charliepie said:

Haha, Kyren "Table 1" Wilson doesn't make my big guns list:-) It would be nice to see a big priced winner so I'm rooting for the 50/1 and over shots.

lol, the rankings say he's a better player than Jack Lisowski but agree in the sense that I'm very much ignoring him this week. 50/1 + sounds good to me.

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First to 5 here and I reckon McGill gets over the line without the need for a deciding leg. He beat Pengfei 4-0 in their most recent match 3 months ago and looks to be going well. Won 5-0 and 5-1 in qualification and made the Quarter Finals of the Grand Prix, losing out in a deciding leg in a match that perhaps he should have won on chances he had. Since a poor World Championship he has won 10 out of his last 13 matches, with losses to Neil Robertson and the other 2 against Murphy. 

The other one that I am going for, and it's not my kinda bet at all normally, but I'm going to take Jimmy White (-1.5 handicap) to beat Peng Yisong. Normally, I would be taking White on with a young chinese player but White is playing decent at the moment and has beaten Gould (5-2) and Mark Joyce (5-3) in qualification for this event. He also beat Steadman 4-0 at The Welsh. I reckon he wins this game with some frames in hand.

2.5pts A.McGill (-1.5 frame handicap) to beat Pengfei 4/5 bet365
2.5pts J.White (-1.5 frames handicap) to beat P.Yisong evens bet365

 

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McGill didn't turn up tonight ?

Only saw a few minutes of it near the end, when he went for that long range yellow I was thinking 'uh oh', sure enough he blazes it wide of the pocket, and the Chinese lad cleans up afterwards. Shambles of a performance from Anthony. Thankfully I didn't put the mortgage on him! ?

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25 minutes ago, amity said:

McGill didn't turn up tonight ?

Only saw a few minutes of it near the end, when he went for that long range yellow I was thinking 'uh oh', sure enough he blazes it wide of the pocket, and the Chinese lad cleans up afterwards. Shambles of a performance from Anthony. Thankfully I didn't put the mortgage on him! ?

No, it's crazy how fast these players go in and out of form. He was useless and Pengfei played good really. Atleast Jimmy turned up for a level day. Hopefully tomorrow brings a profit. I still think a big price has a chance of going far in this event. 

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2 for me, for tomorrow. Main bet is Wakelin to beat Jiahui. I just think that he'll free up after a huge win for him and I think he will treat the rest of the season like a freebie. He actually has been playing well prior to the Shootout. Kinda annoys me that I didn't see it really. Beat Yupeng and Gary Wilson at the 6-red qualification. Infact since losing to Peifan Lei at the English Open in October, he has won 14 in a row and is unbeaten in 2023. 

The other that I'm going for is Stevens to beat Brecel. I thought Brecel went out really tamely in his last 2 events now. I understand that they were against Ronnie and Judd but his interviews come across as somebody that isn't that bothered and I'm not sure he'll be ready for a Matthew Stevens who is coming off of a great win over an in-form Ding. When you look at who Stevens has lost to this season, it' always either great players or great performances. Lisowski, Ronnie, Kyren Wilson, Judd and Mark Williams. Even the loss over Haotian, Haotian hit 2 centuries and 2 50+ breaks in a first to 4. I just feel like Stevens is too  big. He beat Brecel in their last h2h, also.

5.5pts Wakelin to beat Jiahui  8/11 paddypower
2pts Stevens to beat Brecel 13/8 bet365 
1pt 4-fold - Wakelin, Stevens, Junxu & Yupeng 7/1 paddypower

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2 hours ago, Fader said:

Wakelin playing like an absolute tool. Just threw the 2nd frame away by trying an impossible swerve to give away a free ball. Absolutely brainless.

He's continued to play very underwhelming snooker but somehow is at 4-4, largely due to his opponent making almost as many sloppy errors as he. Whoever wins this (and I fancy Jiahui at this point) is going home soon unless they have a miraculous turnaround in form in the next match. 

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Part of the bet was Jiahui's poor form. Wakelin just gave away that 2nd frame at 53-0 up attempting some stupid swerve and he did it twice and you could see the free ball was coming. There was other options like rolling up off the cushion. Just abit stupid and at 2-0 he's then up against it. Went 3-1 down and thought he was out of it. He's improved as it's gone on and that final frame break (when it really mattered) showed his grit. I'm not sure that will give Neil Robertson any sleepless nights but he only needed that win for the bet and let's face it, 125/1 on Wakelin winning the tournament is always going to be a shot in the dark.

Small profit on the day with Wakelin getting over the line. I thought when Stevens went 2-0 up, he had Brecel but to be fair to Brecel he turned it on and shot away.

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1 minute ago, Fader said:

Part of the bet was Jiahui's poor form. Wakelin just gave away that 2nd frame at 53-0 up attempting some stupid swerve and he did it twice and you could see the free ball was coming. There was other options like rolling up off the cushion. Just abit stupid and at 2-0 he's then up against it. Went 3-1 down and thought he was out of it. He's improved as it's gone on and that final frame break (when it really mattered) showed his grit. I'm not sure that will give Neil Robertson any sleepless nights but he only needed that win for the bet and let's face it, 125/1 on Wakelin winning the tournament is always going to be a shot in the dark.

Small profit on the day with Wakelin getting over the line. I thought when Stevens went 2-0 up, he had Brecel but to be fair to Brecel he turned it on and shot away.

on a sidenote, Yupeng going 3-0 up on Heathcote and losing 5-4 is a disgraceful result.

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One more bet for tonights matches. On a sidenote, can't wait to watch Lisowski Vs Jimmy tonight. White is playing some of the best stuff I've seen from him in ages but you just know he's going to get smashed anyway :D

Guodong plays El Slessor tonight. Guodong is playing some good stuff and overcome Fan Zhengyi 5-4 from 4-3 down. He hit 4 50+ breaks in that match and was pretty solid. That's how I see Guodong really, a solid player who scores alot of 70-100 scores to win frames. I don't see him as a player who hits a whole lot of centuries and in fact in his last 10 matches he has hit just 1. 1 in the last 12 in fact. Don't get me wrong, he wins alot but he tends to "get the job done"

Slessor beat O'Connor 5-2 and hit 2 centuries, including a 115 and a 120. He also hit 2 against Lam in qualifications. Also hit a 142 in his Welsh Open win against Emery last month. I think it's worth siding with Slessor on the Highest Break tonight

2.5pts Slessor (Highest break) Vs Guodong 11/10 bet365

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53 minutes ago, Fader said:

Anybody tempted with Joe Perry to beat Robbo?

Definitely. Robbo has underwhelmed this season and Perry is a tricky opponent who has got the best of him plenty of times before. Also I'm not convinced Robbo is all that bothered about this tournament. It's not a big one and none of the top players are here and if he wins it, it'll be a bit like Djokovic rocking up at a 250 and winning it.

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

Definitely. Robbo has underwhelmed this season and Perry is a tricky opponent who has got the best of him plenty of times before. Also I'm not convinced Robbo is all that bothered about this tournament. It's not a big one and none of the top players are here and if he wins it, it'll be a bit like Djokovic rocking up at a 250 and winning it.

Yeah, spose you could also see it as, he may see it as winning this to play into form but in general, I think Perry is a big price to win this one.

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2 minutes ago, Fader said:

Yeah, spose you could also see it as, he may see it as winning this to play into form but in general, I think Perry is a big price to win this one.

There is that other side to it definitely. I just think if you're not that bothered about winning - and I don't think he will be - then it's harder to win anything.

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