DAILY LUCKY 15

[Carole-dawney]

1.50 Newmarket 

hi royal 9/2

2.25 Newmarket 

new kingdom 10/3

3.00 Newmarket 

bucephalus 13/2

5.20 Newmarket 

lihou 9/1

10p e/w bet365 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Betfred do pay BOG on their L15's and you get 3 x the odds if you get just one winner. 

As @harry_ragrightly says, the 3 x odds is a massive benefit, I'm also contemplating going to a bookies for the first time in years to take advantage of it. I'm not sure how they work anymore, do they allow BOG in the shops ?

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

All Sweet stuff Micheal but you still need the horse/s and they and their odds are the important bit and without some sort of system ie speed figures and or an extensive knowledge of not just horses but how to use the odds of each horse, for example:- picking four favs every day will get you running on the spot and soon falling behind.

As you say, the main element is selecting horses that offer value. I have a variety of methods of selection and on average I have an edge of about 5%.

Nearly all my serious betting is on the exchanges, in effect the equivalent of the bookies overround is the 2% commission so this leaves me with a 3% profit.

The average loss with the standard bookmakers at SP is a massive 24%. This can be reduced by using BOG but not sufficiently to turn my 5% edge into a profit.

The lucky 15 option does open up the possibility of overcoming the bookies overound and combined with good horse selection profits well in excess of my average 3%.

We shall see.

[MCLARKE]

[harry_rag]

Ok, see if this makes any sense! Scenario is based on staking £15 on 4 selections every day that are true 8/1 shots. It compares backing them in singles (4 x £3.75) to doing a £1 L15 (without a bonus for 1 winner and with double and treble the odds). We've got 3 punters; a value punter, a break even one and a losing one. We assume they're getting 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1 respectively. Finally, the figures reflect the expected returns in a year when you don't manage to get all 4 up (as that's something you can expect to do roughly once every 18 years).

	Singles P/L	Singles ROI	L15 P/L	L15 ROI	L15 x2 P/L	L15 x2 ROI	L15 x3 P/L	L15 x3 ROI
Value	£608.34	11.11%	£845.00	15.43%	£1,871.00	34.17%	£2,897.00	52.91%
Break even	£0.00	0.00%	-£372.00	-6.79%	£540.00	9.86%	£1,452.00	26.52%
Losing	-£608.33	-11.11%	-£1,427.00	-26.06%	-£629.00	-11.49%	£169.00	3.09%

To keep it fairly simple, the value punter increases his edge by doing L15 even without the bonus (as multis will literally multiply your edge if you have one) but gets a huge boost when getting double or treble the odds for only one winner.

The break even punter would make a small loss without the bonuses (in the absence of hitting all 4) but shows a decent profit with the benefit of the boost.

The losing punter loses more without the bonus (the bookie's edge is multiplied) but could get into profit with treble the odds for one winner. Even with double the odds their losses are similar to singles but with the free shot at getting all 4 up.

You could expect a lot more variance in your results doing L15 rather than singles. On average you'd expect to hit a treble twice a year so there's a huge swing if you hit 3 compared to just 1 (£1458 difference at 8/1). Some people prefer the more consistent returns from singles I think.

Bottom line is that simple maths mean there's a huge case for making use of L15 where you can get double or treble the odds for one winner. How you employ that in terms splitting your stake with singles is more complex (probably something along the lines suggested by @Zilzalian). For losing punters there's an argument for binning singles and just doing a L15 as you get more bang for your buck as a result of the bonus.

My own take is, if I could get treble the odds anywhere, I'd be having a tilt at a daily L15 just plucking a few selections off here. Like @MCLARKEI may have to do a bit of window shopping at my local bookies shops! 

[The Equaliser]

L15

2.25 Nm Rebel Territory 4/1

3.00 Nm Outbreak 11/2

3.35 Nm Ottoman Fleet 6/4

5.20 Nm Ey Up It's Maggie 5/2

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3 pts poss return 141.55

---------------------------------------------------------------

Only two winners so the return was 4.00.  Hence 1 pt profit on the day.  Makes MTD now -1.83 c/fwd

Edited April 18, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Zilzalian]

16 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Ok, see if this makes any sense! Scenario is based on staking £15 on 4 selections every day that are true 8/1 shots. It compares backing them in singles (4 x £3.75) to doing a £1 L15 (without a bonus for 1 winner and with double and treble the odds). We've got 3 punters; a value punter, a break even one and a losing one. We assume they're getting 9/1, 8/1 and 7/1 respectively. Finally, the figures reflect the expected returns in a year when you don't manage to get all 4 up (as that's something you can expect to do roughly once every 18 years).

	Singles P/L	Singles ROI	L15 P/L	L15 ROI	L15 x2 P/L	L15 x2 ROI	L15 x3 P/L	L15 x3 ROI
Value	£608.34	11.11%	£845.00	15.43%	£1,871.00	34.17%	£2,897.00	52.91%
Break even	£0.00	0.00%	-£372.00	-6.79%	£540.00	9.86%	£1,452.00	26.52%
Losing	-£608.33	-11.11%	-£1,427.00	-26.06%	-£629.00	-11.49%	£169.00	3.09%

To keep it fairly simple, the value punter increases his edge by doing L15 even without the bonus (as multis will literally multiply your edge if you have one) but gets a huge boost when getting double or treble the odds for only one winner.

The break even punter would make a small loss without the bonuses (in the absence of hitting all 4) but shows a decent profit with the benefit of the boost.

The losing punter loses more without the bonus (the bookie's edge is multiplied) but could get into profit with treble the odds for one winner. Even with double the odds their losses are similar to singles but with the free shot at getting all 4 up.

You could expect a lot more variance in your results doing L15 rather than singles. On average you'd expect to hit a treble twice a year so there's a huge swing if you hit 3 compared to just 1 (£1458 difference at 8/1). Some people prefer the more consistent returns from singles I think.

Bottom line is that simple maths mean there's a huge case for making use of L15 where you can get double or treble the odds for one winner. How you employ that in terms splitting your stake with singles is more complex (probably something along the lines suggested by @Zilzalian). For losing punters there's an argument for binning singles and just doing a L15 as you get more bang for your buck as a result of the bonus.

My own take is, if I could get treble the odds anywhere, I'd be having a tilt at a daily L15 just plucking a few selections off here. Like @MCLARKEI may have to do a bit of window shopping at my local bookies shops! 

in 2022 i put a months worth of my Lucky 15s daily in real time. in 2021 i also put a months worth of Lucky 15's daily to try to show its benefits, this year i will probably do the same.

In 2021 if i remember correctly the lucky 15 section returned a slight loss but the singles part showed good profit, In 2022 both parts showed decent profit.

I mention this because in both those posts i did not get a treble which for me is unusual i generally get a treble at least once a month. The data is there for anyone to look at and use as examples if they want to test ideas. the useful thing about those two months is that they are pretty average of my returns not outliers.

[justanotherpunter]

Newmarket    5.20    Lihou                  9/1ew
Southwell       6.00    Silver Bubble    17/2ew
Southwell       7.00    Daafy                  6/1ew
Southwell       8.30    Gunnerside       13/2ew
£3.00 ew lucky15
potential returns £797.05

[MCLARKE]

I am feeling confident about my lucky 15 bets going forward (although I still feel I'm missing something, it seems too good to be true, as Tom Robinson sang.)

I believe we have several edges that can transform us from losing at SP to winning

1. BOG - ?

2. The lucky 15 accumulator bonus - approx. 1%

3. The lucky 15 x 2 bonus - approx 14%

4. The lucky 15 X 3 bonus with Betfred - approx 14%

5. Our skill at selecting value bets - approx 5% (for me)

I am assuming that we will be betting in the range 3/1 to 10/1

The starting point will be a SP loss of 15%

The edges would transfer this into a profit of 5% (20% with Betfred) + any benefit from BOG

I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

 

 

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I am feeling confident about my lucky 15 bets going forward (although I still feel I'm missing something, it seems too good to be true, as Tom Robinson sang.)

I believe we have several edges that can transform us from losing at SP to winning

1. BOG - ?

2. The lucky 15 accumulator bonus - approx. 1%

3. The lucky 15 x 2 bonus - approx 14%

4. The lucky 15 X 3 bonus with Betfred - approx 14%

5. Our skill at selecting value bets - approx 5% (for me)

I am assuming that we will be betting in the range 3/1 to 10/1

The starting point will be a SP loss of 15%

The edges would transfer this into a profit of 5% (20% with Betfred) + any benefit from BOG

I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

 

 

Should item 4 be 20% and not 14% ?

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Should item 4 be 20% and not 14% ?

Why 20% ?

[harry_rag]

17 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

If you're doing one a day it will take years to get the true picture given the variance in terms of how many trebles you hit (let alone the jackpot all 4).

I'd track how your bets would have done as level stakes singles (at the real odds they'd have been settled at) as that can be directly compared to an expected return from the L15.

My numbers suggest (based on 8/1 shots) that a break even punter could get close to a 10% ROI with just the double the odds for one winner.

One edge you may be forgetting (apologies if not) is that if you're beating the odds with singles then doing multiples multiplies your edge further even without any bonus.

If you give me an average odds figure and an edge figure I'll amend the spreadsheet to reflect that (I picked 8/1 at random and chose a perhaps optimistic 11% edge figure for backing singles).

[The Equaliser]

14 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Why 20% ?

You mentioned 20% below; however, it can't be 14% for 3 x the odds if Bet365 is 14% for 2 x the odds can it?

[MCLARKE]

14 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

You mentioned 20% below; however, it can't be 14% for 3 x the odds if Bet365 is 14% for 2 x the odds can it?

I meant it as a seperate edge so you would get 14% for x2 and another 14% for x3 so 28% in total

[MCLARKE]

41 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

If you're doing one a day it will take years to get the true picture given the variance in terms of how many trebles you hit (let alone the jackpot all 4).

I'd track how your bets would have done as level stakes singles (at the real odds they'd have been settled at) as that can be directly compared to an expected return from the L15.

My numbers suggest (based on 8/1 shots) that a break even punter could get close to a 10% ROI with just the double the odds for one winner.

One edge you may be forgetting (apologies if not) is that if you're beating the odds with singles then doing multiples multiplies your edge further even without any bonus.

If you give me an average odds figure and an edge figure I'll amend the spreadsheet to reflect that (I picked 8/1 at random and chose a perhaps optimistic 11% edge figure for backing singles).

I'll probably do a lot more than one a day if it is as profitable as we think it maybe.

I think the average odds will be around 13/2 and the edge 5% (11% is a bit optimistic, at least for me)

I suspect that I will not be beating the odds with singles, my betting edge and benefits of BOG might offset the bookies overround

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I think the average odds will be around 13/2 and the edge 5% (11% is a bit optimistic, at least for me)

I suspect that I will not be beating the odds with singles, my betting edge and benefits of BOG might offset the bookies overround

I'll tweak it for those numbers (and so that the numbers are variables so it's easier to play about with). 

[MCLARKE]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Obviously this assumes that we can breakeven with our bets. I will review the losses we can expect to make at SP and then see where the sweet spot is in terms of the odds.

Analysis of returns to SP of all horses over the last few years.

The losses increase in a similar fashion to the edge of the one winner bonus.

I can combine the two tables.

There is no real "sweet spot". It looks like it is best to concentrate on those horses with odds in the region 2/1 to 20/1.

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I am feeling confident about my lucky 15 bets going forward (although I still feel I'm missing something, it seems too good to be true, as Tom Robinson sang.)

I believe we have several edges that can transform us from losing at SP to winning

1. BOG - ?

2. The lucky 15 accumulator bonus - approx. 1%

3. The lucky 15 x 2 bonus - approx 14%

4. The lucky 15 X 3 bonus with Betfred - approx 14%

5. Our skill at selecting value bets - approx 5% (for me)

I am assuming that we will be betting in the range 3/1 to 10/1

The starting point will be a SP loss of 15%

The edges would transfer this into a profit of 5% (20% with Betfred) + any benefit from BOG

I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

 

 

There's a convert if i ever saw one. 🤣

[Zilzalian]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I am feeling confident about my lucky 15 bets going forward (although I still feel I'm missing something, it seems too good to be true, as Tom Robinson sang.)

I believe we have several edges that can transform us from losing at SP to winning

1. BOG - ?

2. The lucky 15 accumulator bonus - approx. 1%

3. The lucky 15 x 2 bonus - approx 14%

4. The lucky 15 X 3 bonus with Betfred - approx 14%

5. Our skill at selecting value bets - approx 5% (for me)

I am assuming that we will be betting in the range 3/1 to 10/1

The starting point will be a SP loss of 15%

The edges would transfer this into a profit of 5% (20% with Betfred) + any benefit from BOG

I will record all my bets over the next few weeks / months and hopefully put the theory into practice !

 

 

I would add just 2 considerations 1) A NR voids all bonus's although it basically doubles your stakes on the remaining bets and 2) The above are all the bullets but you still need the gun which is the horse and its odds or vice versa.

[harry_rag]

I think the point is that the bet “turbo charges” your returns wherever you sit on the win/lose/break even spectrum but the results are most impressive if you’re already showing a profit to singles. I’d suggest the starting point should be putting selections you already back into a lucky 15. I’d do that initially rather than try and find additional selections just for the purpose of backing in L15.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Ok todays pics

[LEE-GRAYS]

17 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I think the point is that the bet “turbo charges” your returns wherever you sit on the win/lose/break even spectrum but the results are most impressive if you’re already showing a profit to singles. I’d suggest the starting point should be putting selections you already back into a lucky 15. I’d do that initially rather than try and find additional selections just for the purpose of backing in L15.

Come on harry stick one up 😂😂💰💰👍

[harry_rag]

4 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Come on harry stick one up 😂😂💰💰👍

If I could find a bookie where I got the bonus on sports bets I’d be all over it like a rash! If I can find one who’ll let me have it on horses I’ll just be cherry picking selections from you lot. A man’s got to know his limitations (as my Dirty namesake used to say).

[Carole-dawney]

1.30 Cheltenham 

captain Tom cat 13/2

2.05 Cheltenham 

lallygag 8/1

2.40 Cheltenham 

valleres 10/1

3.15 Cheltenham 

hermino Aa 22/1

10p e/w bet365 

[tonythepaint]

Chel 1.30 Captain Tom Cat 13/2 

Chel 2.05 Lady Adare 11/1 

New 1.50 Surely Not 14/1 

New 2.25 Orazio 9/1 

Bet 3 : 10p lucky 15 with 888 

Running total -£2.52 

Double up today

Profit today £16 

Running total+£13.48

Edited April 19, 2023 by tonythepaint
Updated

[justanotherpunter]

19 hours ago, justanotherpunter said:

Newmarket    5.20    Lihou                  9/1ew
Southwell       6.00    Silver Bubble    17/2ew
Southwell       7.00    Daafy                  6/1ew
Southwell       8.30    Gunnerside       13/2ew
£3.00 ew lucky15
potential returns £797.05

Newmarket    5.20    Lihou                  9/1ew---3rd 10/1
Southwell       6.00    Silver Bubble    17/2ew---lost
Southwell       7.00    Daafy                  6/1ew---lost
Southwell       8.30    Gunnerside       13/2ew---lost
Only 1 place - lost £2.70

[harry_rag]

16 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I think the average odds will be around 13/2 and the edge 5%

Ok, here's some numbers for a punter backing 13/2 shots with a 5% edge from level stakes singles.

• 4 £3.75 singles every day would return a profit of 273.75 with an ROI of (surprise, surprise) 5%
• Expected average return from a £1 L15 with no bonus would be £606.27 with an ROI of 11.07% BUT that includes 0.14 of a four timer which you could expect to hit around once every 8 years.
• In an average year where you don't hit all 4 you're looking at -£125.54 with an ROI of -2.29% (the shorter price hits you on the days you only manage one winner).
• Factor in double the odds for one winner and those numbers become +£1561.11 and 28.51% overall or +£719.53 and 13.14% in the years with no 4 timer.
• At treble the odds it becomes +£2406.17 and 43.95% or +£1564.60 and 28.58%
• Don't lose sight of how much variance you can expect from one year to the next. Obviously any years you hit all 4 are going to be spectacular but in the years you don't then you're really at the mercy of how many trebles you land. At these odds you'd expect 3 or 4 in an average year. At 8/1 it was more like 2. You're going to have to accept the possibility of losing years when the bets don't fall in your favour (e.g. an imbalance of trebles v singles and doubles).

I'd still say it's a no brainer to take advantage of the double/treble odds where you can but you have to take a long term view as there could be losing years along the way. I'd also say that the bigger the odds the bigger the edge and you might be better playing at 8/1 + rather than going as short as 13/2. Oh, and if you can manage a better edge than 5% that wouldn't do any harm either! 

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I’d suggest the starting point should be putting selections you already back into a lucky 15. I’d do that initially rather than try and find additional selections just for the purpose of backing in L15.

These selections I will be backing at BSP. I'll also now start putting them in a 10p lucky 15 to test the theory

 

 

[MCLARKE]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Ok, here's some numbers for a punter backing 13/2 shots with a 5% edge from level stakes singles.

• 4 £3.75 singles every day would return a profit of 273.75 with an ROI of (surprise, surprise) 5%
• Expected average return from a £1 L15 with no bonus would be £606.27 with an ROI of 11.07% BUT that includes 0.14 of a four timer which you could expect to hit around once every 8 years.
• In an average year where you don't hit all 4 you're looking at -£125.54 with an ROI of -2.29% (the shorter price hits you on the days you only manage one winner).
• Factor in double the odds for one winner and those numbers become +£1561.11 and 28.51% overall or +£719.53 and 13.14% in the years with no 4 timer.
• At treble the odds it becomes +£2406.17 and 43.95% or +£1564.60 and 28.58%
• Don't lose sight of how much variance you can expect from one year to the next. Obviously any years you hit all 4 are going to be spectacular but in the years you don't then you're really at the mercy of how many trebles you land. At these odds you'd expect 3 or 4 in an average year. At 8/1 it was more like 2. You're going to have to accept the possibility of losing years when the bets don't fall in your favour (e.g. an imbalance of trebles v singles and doubles).

I'd still say it's a no brainer to take advantage of the double/treble odds where you can but you have to take a long term view as there could be losing years along the way. I'd also say that the bigger the odds the bigger the edge and you might be better playing at 8/1 + rather than going as short as 13/2. Oh, and if you can manage a better edge than 5% that wouldn't do any harm either! 

Not sure if you've taken the bookies overround into consideration here, apologies if you have.

My edge is based on Betfair Starting Prices. If I bet with a standard bookmaker at SP I would have to overcome the overround of c. 17%

I would mitigate some of that by taking BOG but at level stakes I would still be down before bonuses etc.

In terms of variability you can probably reduce this by concentrating on lower odds, say 2/1 - 4/1 but then the number of selections will also reduce.

[MCLARKE]

TV L15