DAILY LUCKY 15

[harry_rag]

28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Not sure if you've taken the bookies overround into consideration here, apologies if you have.

I'm comparing someone backing their selections with a bookie at whatever odds they're getting (be it early price, SP, BOG) and looking at the return from singles v L15 so the assumption is it's the same selections at the same prices either as singles or in the multi. I can do it with any price and any degree of positive or negative edge for a winning or losing punter. So the post above assumes you're getting 13/2 and have a 5% edge as level stakes singles. I can send you the spreadsheet if you want to play about with the variables.

34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

In terms of variability you can probably reduce this by concentrating on lower odds, say 2/1 - 4/1 but then the number of selections will also reduce.

The bigger the odds the more you play up the advantage from doing multis and getting the bonus but obviously the more variable the results will be. But if you go as short as that I'd say you seriously lose a lot of the benefit from doing L15 in the first place. Going down to 13/2 you're already looking at around 200 days with no winners and 130 with just 1. You really want to be making a decent profit on the days you're only hitting one winner.

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Chel 1.30 Captain Tom Cat 13/2 

Chel 2.05 Lady Adare 11/1 

New 1.50 Surely Not 14/1 

New 2.25 Orazio 9/1 

Bet 3 : 10p lucky 15 with 888 

Running total -£2.52 

Double up today

Profit today £16 

Running total+£13.48

Nice one Tony +£16.00 2 nice winners 💰👍

[tonythepaint]

4 hours ago, tonythepaint said:

Chel 1.30 Captain Tom Cat 13/2 

Chel 2.05 Lady Adare 11/1 

New 1.50 Surely Not 14/1 

New 2.25 Orazio 9/1 

Bet 3 : 10p lucky 15 with 888 

Running total -£2.52 

Double up today

Profit today £16 

Running total+£13.48

 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

The bigger the odds the more you play up the advantage from doing multis and getting the bonus but obviously the more variable the results will be. But if you go as short as that I'd say you seriously lose a lot of the benefit from doing L15 in the first place. Going down to 13/2 you're already looking at around 200 days with no winners and 130 with just 1. You really want to be making a decent profit on the days you're only hitting one winner.

I think I may have discovered the flaw with our logic.

Basically we are starting with a negative advantage, the bookies overround, typically 15% in the 2/1 to 20/1 odds range. We can mitigate this with our selection skills and use of BOG but I suspect we will still be negative.

I for one struggle to make a profit with the standard bookmakers, that is why all my serious betting is made on the exchanges.

What happens in your analysis if we start of with a negative advantage of 5% ?

[MCLARKE]

This one is with Bet Victor, why should BET365 be the only one to suffer !

I have taken one out because the price changed before the bet was placed and therefore was no longer value.

I have replaced it with one of my earlier selections that was still good value.

[MCLARKE]

[harry_rag]

10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I think I may have discovered the flaw with our logic.

Basically we are starting with a negative advantage, the bookies overround, typically 15% in the 2/1 to 20/1 odds range. We can mitigate this with our selection skills and use of BOG but I suspect we will still be negative.

I for one struggle to make a profit with the standard bookmakers, that is why all my serious betting is made on the exchanges.

What happens in your analysis if we start of with a negative advantage of 5% ?

Surely you're wrong there, I've been reading the forum long enough to know that everyone's having it off left right and centre! 

You're going down a theoretical avenue worrying about overround's etc., most punters must have a reasonable idea (self delusion aside) of the extent to which they are a winning or losing punter or how close to break even they are based on actual results. That's the numbers I'm basing it on; what are your average odds and what is your positive or negative return.

The returns for "Larry Loser" follow a familiar path for your 13/2 and -5% example as they did for my original post with 8/1 and -11%. At treble odds for one winner he can expect to make a profit even in an average year without getting all 4 up. At double odds the overall return would be just about in front but in a year without hitting the jackpot the losses would be similar to singles.

A winning punter will win more, a break even punter will have a decent edge and a losing punter will get in front or get close to break even. But, compared to singles, the results will swing drastically from year to year.

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I had a bit of bang po 

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

Surely you're wrong there, I've been reading the forum long enough to know that everyone's having it off left right and centre! 

You're going down a theoretical avenue worrying about overround's etc., most punters must have a reasonable idea (self delusion aside) of the extent to which they are a winning or losing punter or how close to break even they are based on actual results. That's the numbers I'm basing it on; what are your average odds and what is your positive or negative return.

The returns for "Larry Loser" follow a familiar path for your 13/2 and -5% example as they did for my original post with 8/1 and -11%. At treble odds for one winner he can expect to make a profit even in an average year without getting all 4 up. At double odds the overall return would be just about in front but in a year without hitting the jackpot the losses would be similar to singles.

A winning punter will win more, a break even punter will have a decent edge and a losing punter will get in front or get close to break even. But, compared to singles, the results will swing drastically from year to year.

Don’t forget dodgy trainers owners and jockeys in the roundup 😂👍

[MCLARKE]

Last one today, with Bet Victor

[MCLARKE]

7 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Surely you're wrong there, I've been reading the forum long enough to know that everyone's having it off left right and centre! 

Indeed, not many post a detailed record of their bets. It would be interesting if members could let us know what their records are betting single wins with standard bookmakers.

I do not know how my results would be with standard bookmakers, I make a profit with them but only because I take advantage of extra place and other offers.

I make a profit on my selections at BSP of about 3% after commission.

You may be correct at getting bogged down with the theory, the actual results will be key.

I will be interested to see what my results are at SP and what benefit I derive from BOG, these are the 2 unknowns, the benefits of the bonuses are knowns, albeit as you say there will be big swings in the short to medium term.

[justanotherpunter]

It's getting too technical in here - so I'll just post these and fade away😃

Newmarket    4.45    Mubhijah               8/1ew
Newmarket    5.20    Demilion              10/1ew
Beverley         5.10    Pearl Eye              13/2ew 4pl
Beverley         5.40    Miss Calculation    6/1ew
£3.00 ew lucky15
potential returns £831.01

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, justanotherpunter said:

It's getting too technical in here - so I'll just post these and fade away😃

Newmarket    4.45    Mubhijah               8/1ew
Newmarket    5.20    Demilion              10/1ew
Beverley         5.10    Pearl Eye              13/2ew 4pl
Beverley         5.40    Miss Calculation    6/1ew
£3.00 ew lucky15
potential returns £831.01

Keep posting, despite all our mad ramblings you are still making money !

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Indeed, not many post a detailed record of their bets. It would be interesting if members could let us know what their records are betting single wins with standard bookmakers.

I do not know how my results would be with standard bookmakers, I make a profit with them but only because I take advantage of extra place and other offers.

I make a profit on my selections at BSP of about 3% after commission.

You may be correct at getting bogged down with the theory, the actual results will be key.

I will be interested to see what my results are at SP and what benefit I derive from BOG, these are the 2 unknowns, the benefits of the bonuses are knowns, albeit as you say there will be big swings in the short to medium term.

Like i have said there are 2 months worth posted in real time 2021 2022 very average returns for me ( just singles NR's and doubles but still made profit (although i admit i have had a few nightmare months over the years) @LEE-GRAYS has posted literally dozens this past year as have a few of us. why not mop them all up to analyse.

[MCLARKE]

Perhaps I'm being overly pessimistic 

The PL naps under 3/1 have generated a profit of over 4% from 6,000 bets, maybe I should stick with those

[justanotherpunter]

Newmarket    4.45    Mubhijah               8/1ew-------lost
Newmarket    5.20    Demilion              10/1ew-------lost
Beverley         5.10    Pearl Eye              13/2ew 4pl---4th 15/2
Beverley         5.40    Miss Calculation    6/1ew-------lost
lost £2.75

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, justanotherpunter said:

It's getting too technical in here - so I'll just post these and fade away

 Yeah sorry about that, I can go down a bit of a rabbit hole with these exercises! I'll try and avoid any more full on essays with slideshows!

40 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The PL naps under 3/1 have generated a profit of over 4% from 6,000 bets, maybe I should stick with those

Genuinely a seriously bad idea; taking odds that short seriously destroys all the value in taking the bet (the scenario where one winner means you get back less than you put on). Ask the opinions of the experts and have a look at the historical bets mentioned by @Zilzalian but I'd have said you don't want to go below average odds of 7/1 for your selections.

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, harry_rag said:

 Yeah sorry about that, I can go down a bit of a rabbit hole with these exercises! I'll try and avoid any more full on essays with slideshows!

Genuinely a seriously bad idea; taking odds that short seriously destroys all the value in taking the bet (the scenario where one winner means you get back less than you put on). Ask the opinions of the experts and have a look at the historical bets mentioned by @Zilzalian but I'd have said you don't want to go below average odds of 7/1 for your selections.

Exactly.

[Zilzalian]

All very interesting stuff from the dare i say it, late comers to the party. I sit here smiling and reading stuff and saying to mesen ermm that's interesting, and it is by enlarge but it gets so far away from your average punter it incites comments like the one from the well named @justanotherpunter It really is very simple if you have 4 horses to back and presumably you back them because you think they will win so whether you back in singles or not, think of it this way, If you have a good day and lets say manage to pick 3 half decent priced winners does it not seem sensible to knock your (for the sake of argument) tenner a race down to nine quid and use the extra four quid on a 20p lucky 15 and say a 50pew acca? Especially considering that if you do get say 3 winners at 8/1 you would get £200 quid back for your lucky 15 as well as your 3x £72 singles = £216 total returns £416 against just 3 x £10 singles which is £270.

Now imagine your lucky enough to get all 4 winners, well now we are cookin on gas. £2000 just for your lucky15 plus £324 = £2324 against just 4x £10 singles = £360. Big big difference you would have to agree. The add on 50pew acca and your returns would be super boosted.

@MCLARKE using my example and just the win part of the lucky15 and the ew acca above how much would your returns have been? You got the lot plus the super boost so it shows it is possible.

[MCLARKE]

 

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Genuinely a seriously bad idea; taking odds that short seriously destroys all the value in taking the bet (the scenario where one winner means you get back less than you put on). Ask the opinions of the experts and have a look at the historical bets mentioned by @Zilzalian but I'd have said you don't want to go below average odds of 7/1 for your selections.

Normally I am in agreement with you @harry_ragbut this time I'm going to have to strongly disagree.

We have to take into account the favourite longshot bias

At odds of 3/1 the average loss at SP is 8%

At odds of 7/1 the loss is 16%, at 10/1 it is 20%, at 50/1 it is 44%

I agree that the benefit of the bonus is higher at 7/1 and above but it is not sufficient to overcome the initial 16% + loss at SP.

There may well be some members who can overcome this intitial disadvantage but I suspect I am not one of them.

As I build up some data I may be able to prove / disprove this.

I don't keep records of members on this thread (I would hope that they do) but I do keep records of all naps and I have over 43,000 entries, those under 3/1 make a profit of 4%, the rest make a loss of 4% (which in itself is a good return).

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

All very interesting stuff from the dare i say it, late comers to the party. I sit here smiling and reading stuff and saying to mesen ermm that's interesting, and it is by enlarge but it gets so far away from your average punter it incites comments like the one from the well named @justanotherpunter It really is very simple if you have 4 horses to back and presumably you back them because you think they will win so whether you back in singles or not, think of it this way, If you have a good day and lets say manage to pick 3 half decent priced winners does it not seem sensible to knock your (for the sake of argument) tenner a race down to nine quid and use the extra four quid on a 20p lucky 15 and say a 50pew acca? Especially considering that if you do get say 3 winners at 8/1 you would get £200 quid back for your lucky 15 as well as your 3x £72 singles = £216 total returns £416 against just 3 x £10 singles which is £270.

Now imagine your lucky enough to get all 4 winners, well now we are cookin on gas. £2000 just for your lucky15 plus £324 = £2324 against just 4x £10 singles = £360. Big big difference you would have to agree. The add on 50pew acca and your returns would be super boosted.

@MCLARKE using my example and just the win part of the lucky15 and the ew acca above how much would your returns have been? You got the lot plus the super boost so it shows it is possible.

By my calculation the 20p win lucky15 with a 50p ew acca = lucky15 = £1,870.  Acca = £2,737 total returns for £4.00 stake = £4,647

[MCLARKE]

17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

using my example and just the win part of the lucky15 and the ew acca above how much would your returns have been? You got the lot plus the super boost so it shows it is possible.

It's going to be a noose around my neck for a long time !

[tonythepaint]

Chel 1.30 Sashenka 13/2 

Chel 2.05 La Renommee 9/2 

Chel 4.25 Fortunes Melody 5/1 

New 1.50 Changing Colours 3/1 

Bet 4 :10p L15 with Corals

Running total+13.48 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Good luck👍

[Carole-dawney]

1.30 Cheltenham 

well vicky

2.05 Cheltenham 

fairfield Ferrata 

2.40 Cheltenham 

zestful

3.15 Cheltenham 

good look charm

10p e/w bet365 

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

[MCLARKE]

TV L15

[LEE-GRAYS]

My get out of jail lucky 15