MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 Paid out £993.46 for a £3 stake which is more than I was expecting but I'm not complaining LeMale, Craig bluenose, BBBC and 4 others 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Paid out £993.46 for a £3 stake which is more than I was expecting but I'm not complaining Nice one Michael I got £243 for the patent missed you putting it up good days work 👍👍 BBBC and LeMale 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 4 hours ago, The Equaliser said: B/FWD -10.50 L15 2.25 West Balboa 9/2 4.15 Aint Kinondo Kwetu 14/1 4.30 Yar Astrophysics 20/1 5.15 Aint Corach Rambler 10/1 1 x 0.10 win L15 = 1.50 pts , pos ret 2745.50 Nice double well done 👍 The Equaliser, BBBC and justanotherpunter 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 25 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Nice one Michael I got £243 for the patent missed you putting it up good days work 👍👍 10% bonus for all 4 winning LEE-GRAYS, BBBC, Craig bluenose and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: 10% bonus for all 4 winning Excellent. I wasn't aware of this. Maybe the L15 is good value after all. LEE-GRAYS, LeMale, Craig bluenose and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Maybe the L15 is good value after all. Although with those odds and assuming I do 1 L15 a week it will be another 104 years before I hit it again ! The Equaliser, BBBC, LeMale and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Although with those odds and assuming I do 1 L15 a week it will be another 104 years before I hit it again ! No tomorrow get on it 😂😂 BBBC, justanotherpunter and LeMale 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said: No tomorrow get on it I may well do if there are 4 extra place races, I'm addicted now ! justanotherpunter, LEE-GRAYS, BBBC and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I may well do if there are 4 extra place races, I'm addicted now ! 2 races at longchamp extra places we are global on the lucky 15 😂😂 BBBC, justanotherpunter, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 5 hours ago, MCLARKE said: BET365 EW Well done @MCLARKE you have set a high bar for us to aim at. Although I’ve been doing the ones posted an early start to drive to the football meant I wasn’t on. I can only assume if I was then it wouldn’t have won! 😭😭 justanotherpunter, Craig bluenose, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 39 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Although with those odds and assuming I do 1 L15 a week it will be another 104 years before I hit it again ! Interesting to contemplate this. It seems to me that if one does one every day then there could be a significant payout about every 3 - 4 months. I am basing this on what seems to be @Zilzalian's success rate. I am sure he can throw a bit more light on it 🙂. LEE-GRAYS and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 Just now, The Equaliser said: Interesting to contemplate this. It seems to me that if one does one every day then there could be a significant payout about every 3 - 4 months. I am basing this on what seems to be @Zilzalian's success rate. I am sure he can throw a bit more light on it 🙂. It all depends on the odds and how many you do. My cumulative odds today were 5,433 / 1 so if you did 1 every day on average you would hit it every 15 years or so. There will obviously be lots of smaller payouts along the way. LEE-GRAYS, justanotherpunter and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: It all depends on the odds and how many you do. My cumulative odds today were 5,433 / 1 so if you did 1 every day on average you would hit it every 15 years or so. There will obviously be lots of smaller payouts along the way. Don’t forget the strategic cash out I have made £200 this week mine and @justanotherpunter bets on top of Michaels win today 💰💰👍 MCLARKE and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Paid out £993.46 for a £3 stake which is more than I was expecting but I'm not complaining Hi there Michael, congratulations on this win, well deserved. As a matter of interest do you know how much the return was on the place element of your bet? Whenever I have looked at the estimated returns for backing the L15 EW they seem so poor that I would rather use the extra 1.50 points on another win L15 or double the amount for a win bet LEE-GRAYS and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Hi there Michael, congratulations on this win, well deserved. As a matter of interest do you know how much the return was on the place element of your bet? Whenever I have looked at the estimated returns for backing the L15 EW they seem so poor that I would rather use the extra 1.50 points on another win L15 or double the amount for a win bet We/I have already addressed this point. As you already have if i remember correctly. EW is 2 separate bets, the win part and the place part one does not affect the other, so:- 10p ew is a 10p win Lucky 15 and a 10p place Lucky 15. and so:- 4 winners at 8/1 gives 10,000/1. Assuming 1/4 the odds the place part is 256/1 So total returns are, win + place = 10,000/1+256/1=10,256/1. In other words just not worth wasting your money on unless all 4 selections are 16/1 or over. The win part if all 4 win on a L15 gets a 15% bonus the place gets no bonus. Edited April 16, 2023 by Zilzalian correction justanotherpunter, The Equaliser, LeMale and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I may well do if there are 4 extra place races, I'm addicted now ! Proof that your never to old to learn. justanotherpunter, LEE-GRAYS, LeMale and 2 others 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBBC Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Hi there Michael, congratulations on this win, well deserved. As a matter of interest do you know how much the return was on the place element of your bet? Whenever I have looked at the estimated returns for backing the L15 EW they seem so poor that I would rather use the extra 1.50 points on another win L15 or double the amount for a win bet I reckon the place part of the lucky 15 paid 12.24 to 0.1 unit stake. I always do an ew acca at 0.25 pts as it covers you for all 4 places. At those prices you need at least 3 to even get your money back in the lucky 15. The bonus is if all 4 win you are typically doubling your returns by the ew acca (cos of the win part). The big plus for ew here is the extra places on offer otherwise for me this would be a non starter. Craig bluenose, LEE-GRAYS, LeMale and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Excellent. I wasn't aware of this. Maybe the L15 is good value after all. Correction 15% bonus all 4 winners on a lucky 15 20% on a lucky 31 and as for L63 read below Lucky 63 A Lucky 63 consists of 63 bets involving 6 selections in different events, 6 singles, 15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 four-folds, 6 five-folds and 1 six-fold. Any one winning selection guarantees a return. Lucky 63 bonuses apply to all sports and bet types with the exception of the following: Numbers betting (e.g. Lotto), Not to Win bets, To Be Placed/Not to Be Placed bets and Tote/Pari-Mutuel bets. For Horse Racing and Greyhound betting all selections and bet types (with the exception of those listed above) apply for bonuses and consolations. All other sports betting selections and bet types must run at odds of 1/2 or longer for bonuses and consolations to apply. For 1 winner only, we pay double the odds. If all 6 selections win we pay a 25% bonus on total returns. If 5 selections win we pay a 10% bonus on the total returns. (N.B. Bonuses are not paid on place parts of Each-way bets). LeMale, justanotherpunter and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 I will take issue with @MCLARKE analysis tomorrow of L15's 😁 i am busy counting my money at the moment. 😁 LeMale, MCLARKE, LEE-GRAYS and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: Hi there Michael, congratulations on this win, well deserved. As a matter of interest do you know how much the return was on the place element of your bet? Whenever I have looked at the estimated returns for backing the L15 EW they seem so poor that I would rather use the extra 1.50 points on another win L15 or double the amount for a win bet The each way paid £15 to the £1.50 stake. With the extra places this is probably a value bet. I must admit I didn't appreciate that a bonus was paid if all 4 / 5 won, this might change my mindset on how I approach this bet. The Equaliser, justanotherpunter, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The each way paid £15 to the £1.50 stake. With the extra places this is probably a value bet. I must admit I didn't appreciate that a bonus was paid if all 4 / 5 won, this might change my mindset on how I approach this bet. £15 versus the £993-£15.00 for the win sounds like peanuts and a waste of money, though I did forget about the extra places which may be worthwhile for some people. I think I'll stick with just the "win" part of the L15 in the future. Thanks for sharing the details justanotherpunter and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: £15 versus the £993-£15.00 for the win sounds like peanuts and a waste of money, though I did forget about the extra places which may be worthwhile for some people. I think I'll stick with just the "win" part of the L15 in the future. Thanks for sharing the details Maybe but you will return the £15 on many more occasions than the £978 LeMale, LEE-GRAYS, The Equaliser and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 14 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Paid out £993.46 for a £3 stake which is more than I was expecting but I'm not complaining Only catching up with all this this morning so a bit late to the party, but well done @MCLARKE! Like BBBC, i wasn't on it myself but you seem to have made quite a few PL followers a nice tidy sum and nice to see you enjoying the thrill of a Lucky15. Roll on the next one lads and lasses and well done again. Zico10, BBBC, Craig bluenose and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Ok Michael time for the fight back 😂😂 justanotherpunter, Craig bluenose, BBBC and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotherpunter Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Day 24 Chepstow 4.52 Good Impression 28/1ew ------lost Yarmouth 5.00 Spanish Mane 18/1ew ------lost Wolverhampton 5.30 Holly Blackmore 15/2ew ------lost Aintree 6.20 Esprit Du Potier 40/1ew 4pl---lost Day 24 loss £3.00 Overall £100.19 - £3.00 = £97.19 profit The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotherpunter Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 I'll try an Irish one today - Day 25 Tramore 2.50 Port Rashid 14/1ew 4pl Tramore 3.25 Unheralded 14/1ew 4pl Tramore 5.10 Itsalonglongroad 18/1ew 5pl Curragh 5.25 Knockmore Prince 14/1ew 6pl £3.00 ew lucky15 potential returns £8,253.68 Craig bluenose, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16, 2023 Author Share Posted April 16, 2023 Current record Out £54, in £1,021.76, profit £967.76 I'll try for the luck of the Irish today BET365 EW The Equaliser, Craig bluenose, alexcaruso808 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 B/fwd-4.30 1.35 Hunt Percy Willis 15/2 2.25 Win The Bomber Liston 5/1 2.40 Hun Out The Glen 7/1 4.20 Curr Earls 9/1 1 x 0.10 win L15 = 1.50 poss ret 658.25 alexcaruso808 and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted April 16, 2023 Share Posted April 16, 2023 Lucky 15's 31's 63's Lets clarify a few things about Lucky 15's 31's 63's, @MCLARKE will tell you lots of “data” related reasons why you should technically avoid them, he will also put in warnings like “bookies benefit bet,” and how long or how many lifetimes you will need to live before getting one up etc and they are valid points although he just shot himself in the foot with those arguments but they are actually valid but nothing is ever that simple. Now here's the thing, you do not need 4 winners or even 3 or 2 for that matter all you need is 1 x 8/1 winner to make a profit due to the double the odds (bet365 for this article) That is why I personally disregard EW on these bets unless the prices are literally huge i.e. all four selections are 16/1 or greater (an obvious exception would be say for example you have a 33/1 14/1 10/1 10/1). An argument could be made for just doing an EW acca in addition to your L15 bet just in case all 4 place. So that is the basis for your lucky 15, every winner thereafter is more profit so a double is perfectly reasonable (see attached Screenshot) 2 x 8/1 shots is 100/1 for example, 3 x 8/1 shots is 1000/1 and 4 x 8/1 shots is 10,000/1. Personally I don't do a Lucky 15's daily but sometimes I do more than one so it evens out at around one per day so bear in mind because I do 40p L15's (20p EW on the rarer occasion) at £6 a piece they cost me around £2,000 quid a year (£500 for a 10p L15) and that is how much I would lose if I never had a winner. So I need to return £2000 quid per year before I start to make a profit. My year starts end of flat to end of flat (November – November) I surpassed £2000 returns by the end of December (pretty much proofed on this site if anyone cares to check) so every return I get now is pure profit so that means that my selections can now be any price. I no longer have to meet the 8/1 threshold for my minimum required return I can now include the odd fav in my Lucky 15 if I have a strong fancy. WARNING. I do not or rarely back/copy other peoples bets. Originally on this thread there were just 4 of us so it was a bit of fun as we each picked a geegee each day, however I soon realised that there are dangers involved, the danger being the bookies aint stupid and if they are paying out to multiple players with the same selections on the same bet type they would soon twig and react accordingly PL is a public forum and you can bet your arse they can/do read these threads and it concerns me that people could lose their accounts. The Equaliser, BBBC, LeMale and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted April 16, 2023 Author Share Posted April 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Lets clarify a few things about Lucky 15's 31's 63's, @MCLARKE will tell you lots of “data” related reasons why you should technically avoid them, he will also put in warnings like “bookies benefit bet,” and how long or how many lifetimes you will need to live before getting one up etc and they are valid points although he just shot himself in the foot with those arguments but they are actually valid but nothing is ever that simple. Too true, I did shoot myself in the foot by winning but I didn't mind ! I didn't realise that there was a 15% boost for getting 4 winners, this is obviously another benefit I'll do a bit of analysis to try and calculate the additional edge of these bets Craig bluenose, The Equaliser, LeMale and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.