DAILY LUCKY 15

[LeMale]

22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes.  I have to build on my selection method

Not sure betting two L-15's on the same races with different picks is the way to go, although this seems stupid to say now you've just won with one of them! My point would be, just how gutted are you going to be if you keep getting 2 in one and 2 in the other? That would annoy me more than any amount i won on both doubles. 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

B/Fwd -50.32

2.20 Nb Iberian 3/1

2.50 Nb Back Sea Daa 13/2

3.25 Nb Chealamy 17/2

4.00 Nb Letmelivemylife 12/1

1 x w L15 poss Ret 624.65 + 0.25 ew Acca = poss ret 936.18 = 1560.84 = 2 pts staked

RESULTS UPDATE

3 winners and a non runner in my 2nd L15 and ew acca produced a profit of 189.53.  After taking account of the b/fwd loss of 50.32 it leaves a positive balance of 139.21.  This should pay for a few more 2 point L15's and accas

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, LeMale said:

Not sure betting two L-15's on the same races with different picks is the way to go, although this seems stupid to say now you've just won with one of them! My point would be, just how gutted are you going to be if you keep getting 2 in one and 2 in the other? That would annoy me more than any amount i won on both doubles. 

I don't disagree entirely, however, the problem is that I quite often fancy more than one horse in a race.  It takes me ages to check through my races despite my usual poor results.  So, today, as I felt I had looked at the Newbury races properly I decided to go with different selections in the same races and have a go with two L15's.  It was my least fancied L15 that paid off. Sod's law was on my side for once  

[Villa Chris]

13 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.45 Notts Mokaatil 9/1

4.00 Newbury Able Kane 10/1

5.55 Leopards Power Under Me 11/2

7.20 Worcester Shantou Express 7/4 

5.20 staked potential returns £1.299.03

One NR and the rest blank 

 

lucky 15 Start date 17th May 2023 - 27.25

Edited June 15, 2023 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, LeMale said:

I don't do many L-15's, there is just too much risk on the bigger priced horses that i pick and it would be a miracle if all 4 won so the bonus of them all winning doesn't really matter, it's just the "double odds for one winner" that i miss out on.(and i get more with my single bet anyway) I'm really looking to get a few placed and getting two winners is my bonus.

In the long term you will be better off using lucky 15s if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers, assuming that you can obtain the best prices with one bookie. The downside is that the losing runs will be longer.

[tonythepaint]

Bet 47 Running total -£38

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

In the long term you will be better off using lucky 15s if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers, assuming that you can obtain the best prices with one bookie. The downside is that the losing runs will be longer.

@The Equaliser losing run was almost 7 months this year and i have been banging my head for 5 of those months telling him that the only way he will wipe out those loses will be with at least a treble on a lucky 15 for some strange reason only known to himself he kept ignoring the advice and carried on with 20p singles and  0p trixies.. once he eventually switched to lucky 15's Well what do you know a lucky 15 gets him into profit, now all he has to do is stop trying to cover his loses ie 2 horses in the same race there were 50 races to choose from  yesterday, he will argue that it was the losing L15 he really fancied (solid) i would argue that first one was a "safety bet" (non were even placed) have also been trying to tell him that backing 2 horses in the same race means he has deliberately backed a loser before the race has even run so backing 4 races x 2 horses is lethal and will soon wipe out his new YTD if he carries on. it will be interesting to see what he does going forward. having said all that i am pleased to see him get into the black.

[Carole-dawney]

[Mrjol.]

Just win bets for me now, less  bigger prices.

[LEE-GRAYS]

I know most of you put bets up well before the first race but would be much appreciated if you could not mins before 😂💰my batteries running out keep checking 😂😂😂👍

Edited June 16, 2023 by LEE-GRAYS

[Mrjol.]

7 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

I know most of you put bets up well before the first race but would be much appreciated if you could not mins before 😂💰my batteries running out keep checking 😂😂😂👍

Perhaps people don't want you jinxing there picks 🤣🤣

[LEE-GRAYS]

1 minute ago, Mrjol. said:

Perhaps people don't want you jinxing there picks 🤣🤣

Yes your right there hope it’s not trying to Knick a point or two 😂😂

[LeMale]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

In the long term you will be better off using lucky 15s if you are betting with the traditional bookmakers, assuming that you can obtain the best prices with one bookie. The downside is that the losing runs will be longer.

I do Lucky 15's, but never cash out on them and unlike a few of you guys, i only usually do one a day and without looking back at all of them, i would say i haven't yet made a great deal from them,YET. But my c/o method works well for ME and i usually get 1 or 2 a week that are big enough to keep the funds growing and i still only bet with small stakes, i've never changed that, otherwise to me it then becomes gambling and not just a bit of fun. I made the mistake at the end of last year when i started to let them ride longer than normal because i had passed a certain figure and then thought to myself, "what are you doing?" I was getting greedy and stopped all betting and packed it in for that year before the flat season had finished. As you can probably tell, i'm not money orientated and am still a novice at this game compared to most of you guys/girls i just got lucky in the first month when getting into horse racing when i got the first 6 winners up on the ITV7 and thought, "oh, well this is easy!" and as i have found out, it's not, it takes a lot of work picking winners and working out the puzzle, it's what makes it fun. And of course, it's how i found this place.

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 minutes ago, LeMale said:

I do Lucky 15's, but never cash out on them and unlike a few of you guys, i only usually do one a day and without looking back at all of them, i would say i haven't yet made a great deal from them,YET. But my c/o method works well for ME and i usually get 1 or 2 a week that are big enough to keep the funds growing and i still only bet with small stakes, i've never changed that, otherwise to me it then becomes gambling and not just a bit of fun. I made the mistake at the end of last year when i started to let them ride longer than normal because i had passed a certain figure and then thought to myself, "what are you doing?" I was getting greedy and stopped all betting and packed it in for that year before the flat season had finished. As you can probably tell, i'm not money orientated and am still a novice at this game compared to most of you guys/girls i just got lucky in the first month when getting into horse racing when i got the first 6 winners up on the ITV7 and thought, "oh, well this is easy!" and as i have found out, it's not, it takes a lot of work picking winners and working out the puzzle, it's what makes it fun. And of course, it's how i found this place.

As you know I from Essex can you tell me in simple terms 😂 how you would break down my 10p e/w lucky 15 much appreciated 👍

[Mrjol.]

Got a cash out already lol

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 minutes ago, Mrjol. said:

Got a cash out already lol

Some times the evening before the daily French meeting I pick 4  33/1 to 50/1 hoses no intention of backing them more often as not in the morning early afternoon I have double my money as there price have come down cash out then do my proper bet but I don’t think bet365 would put up with that for long 😂

[Mrjol.]

13 minutes ago, Mrjol. said:

Got a cash out already lol

Fair Dinkum now 3/1 and Dream Of Mischeif now 5/1. There scared 🤣🤣

[Craig bluenose]

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

i am pleased to see him get into the black.

I echo that sentiment, and am wary of seeming like I’m focusing on a negative but this is largely a theoretical exercise for me. I agree with your point about backing 2 in the same race, I hadn’t thought about it in that way. Yes, it increases your chances of a positive return from those races but it seriously limits your maximum potential return from the 2 L15s. The stars aligned yesterday with all 3 winners and the non runner coming in the same bet. Any other permutation would have seen a much reduced return. So a welcome dollop of good fortune and an illustration of the huge variance you have to put up with in making these bets. (One punter could hit two of those in a month while another could go a year without one, even if they had a similar strike rate.)

It seems a far better idea to me to have different races in your L15 and give yourself the chance of a seriously lucky day where you end up with 3 or more winners in both rather than bet in a way that makes that impossible by having 2 in the same races.

[harry_rag]

Some interesting and contrasting views on cashout, might as well have my two pennerth on that while I’m in pontificating mode!

1. It’s pretty much an irrelevance to me, I regard it as a “new fangled” invention by the bookies (for their benefit) and pretty much never even look at it. Probably not that unreasonable given the way I bet. Most of my betting is on anytime goalscorers and that’s not a market where cashout would be much use. I could look at it for betbuilders I suppose (e.g. where 2 of the 3 elements are already in) but it never crosses my mind and I’m confident that the offer would represent bad value in most cases. That said, I can see why it’s more of interest if you’ve got a bet across multiple races with a huge potential payout.
2. I’m confident that most punters would be better off taking the same approach and ignoring it. They will be losing money by taking it as often as they do. The return they are being offered will usually represent bad value. If it wasn’t profitable for them the bookies wouldn’t offer the facility and they are selective about where they do and don’t offer it to further increase their advantage.
3. Where viable, most punters could probably close their position more favourably on an exchange if they were willing to expend a little time and effort.
4. It’s a comfort blanket for most punters who use it, as it’s nice to take a frequent modest profit rather than endure long losing runs waiting for the bumper payout. Understandable from a psychological viewpoint but still the wrong choice based on the mathematics.
5. Those punters who feel they “do alright from it” are no doubt right in as much as they may be making a profit from it and that they’re more comfortable in betting in a more conservative fashion but they will almost certainly be losing out in the long run. I’m curious as to whether any of the pro-cashout punters can say exactly how much better or worse off they are compared to letting every bet run. Over, say, the last 100 bets would be interesting but over the last year would be great. I suspect most don’t track that though. Maybe start noting the +/- difference for a while, preferably till the next time they hit a full house. Some actual “lived” numbers would be good. It’s hard to believe that @MCLARKE or @The Equaliser would’ve been better off if they were inclined to reach for the cashout button every time a bet got off to a decent start.

[MCLARKE]

The only pressure I get is from the wife telling me to cash out. I try to explain the maths behind it but I might as well talk to the dog !

[MCLARKE]

System selections

[LEE-GRAYS]

Edited June 16, 2023 by LEE-GRAYS

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Some interesting and contrasting views on cashout, might as well have my two pennerth on that while I’m in pontificating mode!

1. It’s pretty much an irrelevance to me, I regard it as a “new fangled” invention by the bookies (for their benefit) and pretty much never even look at it. Probably not that unreasonable given the way I bet. Most of my betting is on anytime goalscorers and that’s not a market where cashout would be much use. I could look at it for betbuilders I suppose (e.g. where 2 of the 3 elements are already in) but it never crosses my mind and I’m confident that the offer would represent bad value in most cases. That said, I can see why it’s more of interest if you’ve got a bet across multiple races with a huge potential payout.
2. I’m confident that most punters would be better off taking the same approach and ignoring it. They will be losing money by taking it as often as they do. The return they are being offered will usually represent bad value. If it wasn’t profitable for them the bookies wouldn’t offer the facility and they are selective about where they do and don’t offer it to further increase their advantage.
3. Where viable, most punters could probably close their position more favourably on an exchange if they were willing to expend a little time and effort.
4. It’s a comfort blanket for most punters who use it, as it’s nice to take a frequent modest profit rather than endure long losing runs waiting for the bumper payout. Understandable from a psychological viewpoint but still the wrong choice based on the mathematics.
5. Those punters who feel they “do alright from it” are no doubt right in as much as they may be making a profit from it and that they’re more comfortable in betting in a more conservative fashion but they will almost certainly be losing out in the long run. I’m curious as to whether any of the pro-cashout punters can say exactly how much better or worse off they are compared to letting every bet run. Over, say, the last 100 bets would be interesting but over the last year would be great. I suspect most don’t track that though. Maybe start noting the +/- difference for a while, preferably till the next time they hit a full house. Some actual “lived” numbers would be good. It’s hard to believe that @MCLARKE or @The Equaliser would’ve been better off if they were inclined to reach for the cashout button every time a bet got off to a decent start.

@LEE-GRAYS is the cashout king and the bookies have had his pants down a good few times recently but here's the thing you play a lucky 15 to win big once in a blue moon and do lets say okay overall picking up singles doubles and the odd decent treble. If you go with the cashout option then you will never win big which is the whole point of the bet, banged on a few times on here why bother doing the bet in the first place if your going to cash out? The advantage the bookies have is that to get "the biggie" you must get the 1st 3 so you are assuming that your only loser is going to be the last leg every time which is stupid. So they dangle the nr carrot and silly sods (no malice intended) fall for it. Now the real problem comes in when you cash out and lose out on thousands, I dont know about other people but i for one wouldn't be able sleep for months and i say that with the proviso that for me the money aspect is least important aspect, the fact i made a prat out of myself taking a cashout hurts my brain. Bottom line if your spending  around £3 quid as most do looking at the posts then £3 quid is all you can lose, once you cash out you may be losing hundreds if not thousands even tho your winning. Very short price lucky 15's (not worth the effort in my opinion) is a different matter because it comes closer to the NR so it will never be a biggie anyway, Having said all that, lets assume you have winners at 14/1 9/1 10/1 and your last leg is say between 1/1-2/1 then okay the cash out may be justified. The other scenario is if you get a loser and 2 winners then cashout probably need a little thought because you already lost "the biggie".  As a general rule and for 98% of all L15's is DON'T CASH OUT is my opinion which is based on literally well over 10,000' of L15 bets  placed over 30+ years. if you add on to those the 24x L15 per day (in 4x4 array) i used to put on at work with the G manager for 20 years that's a hell of a lot of lucky 15'S.

[harry_rag]

I think it's fair to say that the concepts of cashing out and betting in running both originated in spread betting or were certainly more significant in that medium until the explosion of online betting allowed the fixed odds firms to get in on the act in a big way.

I've had nearly 6000 sells on the spreads over the last 4 years where there is the option to take a profit (or reduce a loss) by cashing out. Sometimes I stand to win £20 and 2 very late goals turn it into a £160 loss. Or 3 late tries by the All Blacks substitutes cost me around £240. There would have been options to close those bets out potentially for a cost of £2 or £3 quid but I've never even considered it. I was happy that the opening bet was value and confident that the price I'd have to pay to close the bet wouldn't be. The really big (and late) losses are rare and the modest wins much more common. I'm happy with the average profit I make for every bet struck but I suppose I should ask myself the question could I make more if I tried to trade out of every bet for a set amount. I think the answer would be no (the sell price is almost always value and the buy price I'd have to pay to close out almost certainly isn't).

At the end of the day there's enough time and effort spent on placing that many bets (in addition to any fixed odds bets) without trying to actively manage every one during play so I think I'll stick with the fire and forget approach.

I understand why some punters are wary of spread betting (they don't understand the mechanics and feel it's too risky) but it still baffles me that there aren't more people willing to give it a go.

[LeMale]

1 hour ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

As you know I from Essex can you tell me in simple terms 😂 how you would break down my 10p e/w lucky 15 much appreciated 👍

As the crow flies i'm probably less than 10 miles away from you near Rochester, Kent. But sure, i'll give it a go.

Firstly this works better if you were breaking down a Lucky 31 or 63, 5 or 6 picks rather than 4 and i know you also, from time to time, do those as well. I'm sure you have a selection of picks that you bet on every day and some don't make your L-15 but you do them as singles, i'm assuming, so you will have at least 5 or 6 picks that you're happy with. Enter them as you would normally do (i'm basing this on Bet365 and using 5 picks, normally for you a Lucky 31 for this example) then open "other Multiples" and scroll down and open "show more Multiples". You must do this already to do your L-15. (Just had a thought...i do this on a laptop not a phone or i-pad so i hope it's the same)
Ok, so before you go down to L-31, before that is "singles" "doubles" "trebles" "4 folds" Then just put 10p (or whatever, i usually do a bigger stake on the doubles) in the doubles, which is x10 = £1, then 10p in the trebles, which is also x10 = £1, then 10p in the 4-folds which is x5, = 0.50p and then go back up and underneath your horse selections is the 5-fold (you could have done this first) The break-down of 26 bets which doesn't include the 5 singles that would make it up to 31, but you can add them in if you want, i just don't because i always do my single bets at 08:00hrs and my multiples a bit later. Once confirmed you will now have 4 different bets in your "My Bets" each with it's own Cash Out. Ok, so if we move on to the first horse wins...(because i'm optimistic like that) doesn't really effect anything other than we pat ourself on the back and with the bigger stake we were allowed to put on the singles as opposed to the 10p or 20p in the L-31 (i bet £2 on singles, but you stick to whatever you do normally, but at 50p or a pound you will probably have at least paid for the multiple bets) and i have to assume that even you don't cash out after 1 win, but just for the sake of it, lets say it was a big price and you've got an itchy finger...If you wanted to, you could cash just one out but remember unlike the L-15's or 31's the price is now split and even if all were added up, it would probably not be as high as the Luckys (minus singles and any possible bonuses they might be putting in the mix) and as you will see, they will all be completely different amounts. The 5-fold will not offer much and the 4-fold might have added a bit more, but of course it will be offering more on the trebles and doubles because you already have a winner and it's more likely you will get 1 or 2 more wins, rather than 3 or 4. Let's say no cash out and you have the second horse come in.(i told you i was optimistic) Now even with two wins at let's say 7-1 the c/o on the trebles will be quite good (for the size of our bet, i'm not talking 1000's or 100's here) and the 4-fold will be as well. The doubles will be a nice amount, but you already have a  double so it's already a winner. (if you have no more winners it will go down a bit but not a lot) It's at this stage i make a choice (with 5 horses) and it will depend on how i feel and what the market is saying about the next runner as to whether i cash something out or not. The smallest amount will be the 5-fold and if i've had a change of heart on it's (the next runner) chances, i might c/o on that because if it loses, the 5-fold's finished, but i normally keep that and the doubles going and c/o on the 3 or 4-fold (or if i'm having a bad week both) I've just realised you don't need to know about the cashing out bit, you know how to do that, so hopefully i've explained the breakdown part for you and of course this is the real world so your first two horses are not going to win every day but i will leave you with this. I find what i call my two bankers of the day(i will go as low as 3-1 if i have to) and then pick from races after them for my next picks and try to finish on something late in the day that looks like a market mover and Bet365 have not yet dropped, even if you don't fancy it, because if you're playing the cash out game, the last race don't matter. 

I'm a lonely old fart who waffles on too much and i wouldn't mind, but it takes me hours to write this out, but hoped it made sense and if not just ask some one else 🤣 No just kidding, just message me as long as you don't mind waiting for me to respond. Good luck with it if you decide to try anyway. 

Jason.

[harry_rag]

27 minutes ago, LeMale said:

I'm a lonely old fart who waffles on too much and i wouldn't mind, but it takes me hours to write this out, but hoped it made sense and if not just ask some one else

It does make sense (I was a bit unsure what you were getting at with the original post) and there's certainly a lot to be said for not effing with the formula when you've found something that works for you and you enjoy. For me it feels too much like the tail is wagging the dog with the prospect of cashout dictating how the bets are selected but I would say that given I'm the anti @LEE-GRAYS when it comes to cashout! 

[LEE-GRAYS]

Cheers that’s what I did thank for help no luck so far 💰💰🤞🤞

[LEE-GRAYS]

@LeMale one I did earlier 💰😂👍

[LeMale]

8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It does make sense (I was a bit unsure what you were getting at with the original post) and there's certainly a lot to be said for not effing with the formula when you've found something that works for you and you enjoy. For me it feels too much like the tail is wagging the dog with the prospect of cashout dictating how the bets are selected but I would say that given I'm the anti @LEE-GRAYS when it comes to cashout! 

Thanks Harry. Just those first 4 words were enough for me. 
When i read it back i thought the laptop had translated it to Japanese!!! 

Spread bets, exchanges, i have no idea what any of that is...not good with technology can't even print up posts on here like the others do so can't enter the Ascot Lucky15 comp. No social media and i've got an old i-phone, but never really use it, i'm off the grid, thank god.