DAILY LUCKY 15

[The Equaliser]

27 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Too true, I did shoot myself in the foot by winning but I didn't mind !

I didn't realise that there was a 15% boost for getting 4 winners, this is obviously another benefit

I'll do a bit of analysis to try and calculate the additional edge of these bets

If you are doing some more analysis is it possible for you to take into account the following:

As I understand it statisticians collate all the results of all horses that run in every race and somehow the SP prices of horses are supposed to reflect their true chances of success out of all the horses running throughout the year/season/period under review.

If I'm not mistaken your winning selections were two favoutites and two 3rd favourites.

What I am wondering is if you can obtain stats for the first 3 in the markets in open races which start at a minimum price of 7/2.

I suspect that the first 3 in the market perform better than just say adding in together ALL 5/1, 8/1 and 10/1 plus SP selections and then declaring that is their true probability of winning.

[MCLARKE]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

As I understand it statisticians collate all the results of all horses that run in every race and somehow the SP prices of horses are supposed to reflect their true chances of success out of all the horses running throughout the year/season/period under review.

The SP is not a true relection of their chances for 2 reasons

1. It includes the bookies overround

2. There is the favourite longshot bias

Fortunately we can use the Betfair Starting Price, this is a much truer reflection of the chances of success

[justanotherpunter]

Day 25
Tramore    2.50    Port Rashid               14/1ew    4pl---lost
Tramore    3.25    Unheralded               14/1ew    4pl---3rd 28/1
Tramore    5.10    Itsalonglongroad      18/1ew    5pl---lost
Curragh    5.25    Knockmore Prince     14/1ew    6pl---lost
Day 25 loss £2.34
Overall £97.19 - £2.34 = £94.85 profit

[Zilzalian]

51 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

If you are doing some more analysis is it possible for you to take into account the following:

As I understand it statisticians collate all the results of all horses that run in every race and somehow the SP prices of horses are supposed to reflect their true chances of success out of all the horses running throughout the year/season/period under review.

If I'm not mistaken your winning selections were two favoutites and two 3rd favourites.

What I am wondering is if you can obtain stats for the first 3 in the markets in open races which start at a minimum price of 7/2.

I suspect that the first 3 in the market perform better than just say adding in together ALL 5/1, 8/1 and 10/1 plus SP selections and then declaring that is their true probability of winning.

If your dealing with crap horses in crap races (most are) then if there are 8 runners, every horse in that race is an 8/1 shot especially handicaps (they are all handicapped to win or more accurately all finish level, Believe it or not that's why the handicap/handicapper exists) irrespective of its price. So pick any horse over 8/1 and there you have it, value. If i am getting it wrong then i wonder, how am i winning? You can ask all the questions you can come up with, you can take it all into account and formulate your bet or use other peoples selections as in your case, i could ignore all the answers  because at the end of the day i win and you lose so what does that tell you? If Micheal truly believed in what he is saying or what the analysis/data is saying he would not put a penny piece on a lucky 15 but he did and he won and now he will be about 270 years old before he wins again even if the bonus is 10,000% for all 4 so why isn't he retiring? No disrespect intended to Micheal btw.

[harry_rag]

Out of interest, to what extent would you still do lucky 15s without the luxury of the bonus terms (double or treble the odds for one winner/extra x% for all 4)? The same, less often or not at all?

I’d say the one winner bonus is the most valuable because of the frequency with which it will land but the all 4 bonus is not to be sniffed at either. If you’re a punter who can show a profit backing in singles then I can see the logic in playing lucky 15s to appropriate stakes “on the side”. You’ve got an edge and playing multis with a bonus can only enhance it further. If you’re a losing punter then there’s probably an argument to bin the singles (you’re guaranteed to lose in the long run) and just play small stakes lucky 15s instead (the bonus for one winner might edge you closer to break even).

Without the bonuses it seems less clear cut and I suppose other ways of perming might come into play.

I might try and work out who offers what tomorrow but my gut feel is there are no bookies offering bonus terms on sports (e.g. footy) bets where I’d qualify for the offer.

[Zilzalian]

16 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Out of interest, to what extent would you still do lucky 15s without the luxury of the bonus terms (double or treble the odds for one winner/extra x% for all 4)? The same, less often or not at all?

I’d say the one winner bonus is the most valuable because of the frequency with which it will land but the all 4 bonus is not to be sniffed at either. If you’re a punter who can show a profit backing in singles then I can see the logic in playing lucky 15s to appropriate stakes “on the side”. You’ve got an edge and playing multis with a bonus can only enhance it further. If you’re a losing punter then there’s probably an argument to bin the singles (you’re guaranteed to lose in the long run) and just play small stakes lucky 15s instead (the bonus for one winner might edge you closer to break even).

Without the bonuses it seems less clear cut and I suppose other ways of perming might come into play.

I might try and work out who offers what tomorrow but my gut feel is there are no bookies offering bonus terms on sports (e.g. footy) bets where I’d qualify for the offer.

@harry_rag Interesting points Harry personally i would still do them but that is because i would still make money without the bonus's. Now here's the thing as regards me, i do my own speed figures and that's my day job, doing those speed figures produces a list of horses, the figures are  most accurate when applied to the pattern, listed to G1 which leaves many that i wouldn't ordinarily use but it takes about 25-30 hours a week to produce speed figures and so i utilise the leftovers for want of a better expression at lower levels ie lucky 15's especially in the winter aw flat mainly, however i know that at that level they are very inconsistent because either the trainers are manipulating the handicap or the very nature of that horse pool is inconsistency so they are not worthy of any decent stake so i lump them together in lucky 15's to small stakes i don't really expect to win much but it keeps me ticking over throughout winter until the flat gets going. Now that's me. So what about others? Well you have many punters who just like to have a bet but cant be bothered to put the work in or simply don't have the time, if you are one of those types of punters you will have no chance backing in singles simply because you just don't know enough to make a profit long term. So lets say for tv races you don't/wouldn't want to advise people to chuck even a tenner on each race so what better way of enjoying a bet/the sport than a small stakes Lucky 15 or even 2 (if there are enough races which they usually are) you and i have been in enough bookie shops to know they are full of people that know nothing and whoop whoop when they get the odd winner but we also know they have lost good money long term. There are similar types on this forum and that is not to denigrate them in anyway because at least they are looking for information and joining in the comps, the equaliser is a good example, most of the others exist but don't get involved in the debates. I think i have said before im old now so i like to pass on advice and tips that might benefit those sorts of punters just like i learned so much from talking to the "old boys" when i was younger. Ask @MCLARKE to be honest and say how he felt when Corach Rambler jumped the last on Saturday, that should answer all the questions of why do a Lucky15? Its not all about the money is it?

[LEE-GRAYS]

Ok here we go for another week of profit 💰💰good luck all 👍

[LEE-GRAYS]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@harry_rag Interesting points Harry personally i would still do them but that is because i would still make money without the bonus's. Now here's the thing as regards me, i do my own speed figures and that's my day job, doing those speed figures produces a list of horses, the figures are  most accurate when applied to the pattern, listed to G1 which leaves many that i wouldn't ordinarily use but it takes about 25-30 hours a week to produce speed figures and so i utilise the leftovers for want of a better expression at lower levels ie lucky 15's especially in the winter aw flat mainly, however i know that at that level they are very inconsistent because either the trainers are manipulating the handicap or the very nature of that horse pool is inconsistency so they are not worthy of any decent stake so i lump them together in lucky 15's to small stakes i don't really expect to win much but it keeps me ticking over throughout winter until the flat gets going. Now that's me. So what about others? Well you have many punters who just like to have a bet but cant be bothered to put the work in or simply don't have the time, if you are one of those types of punters you will have no chance backing in singles simply because you just don't know enough to make a profit long term. So lets say for tv races you don't/wouldn't want to advise people to chuck even a tenner on each race so what better way of enjoying a bet/the sport than a small stakes Lucky 15 or even 2 (if there are enough races which they usually are) you and i have been in enough bookie shops to know they are full of people that know nothing and whoop whoop when they get the odd winner but we also know they have lost good money long term. There are similar types on this forum and that is not to denigrate them in anyway because at least they are looking for information and joining in the comps, the equaliser is a good example, most of the others exist but don't get involved in the debates. I think i have said before im old now so i like to pass on advice and tips that might benefit those sorts of punters just like i learned so much from talking to the "old boys" when i was younger. Ask @MCLARKE to be honest and say how he felt when Corach Rambler jumped the last on Saturday, that should answer all the questions of why do a Lucky15? Its not all about the money is it?

I would never had the pleasure of a bonus yet but a lot of good pay outs for three winners or good cash outs @Zilzalian 😂👍

[Carole-dawney]

4.20 windsor

oh Herbert’s reign

4.55 windsor

strategia

5.25 Windsor 

warhol

5.55 Windsor 

beautiful crown

 

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Ask @MCLARKE to be honest and say how he felt when Corach Rambler jumped the last on Saturday, that should answer all the questions of why do a Lucky15? Its not all about the money is it?

I'll be honest and say it was the best horse racing experience in a long time. I actually felt quite relaxed, probably because I knew I was £80 in profit no matter what happened.

I'll admit I was very lucky, as I've I said the odds were over 5,000 to 1 so I don't expect another one at those odds in my lifetime !

However it has got me thinking seriously about the lucky 15. It is a fascinating theoretical concept as well as a practical challenge.

I think the theoretical edge is most for the double odds for 1 winner as opposed to the 15% bonus for 4 winners.

Also the edge increases as the odds increase, but this is countered by the favourite longshot bias.

Then there is the bookies overround to consider.

All before deciding which horse to back. And whether there is a benefit of backing each way in extra place races.

It's giving me a headache thinking about it but I've started to develop a spreadsheet which hopefully look at the various permutations and points me in the right direction.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

I would never had the pleasure of a bonus yet but a lot of good pay outs for three winners or good cash outs @Zilzalian 😂👍

Like i have already said you will drop an almighty clanger sooner or later with that itchy finger because the thing is you can't get the bonus anyway if you cash out, i might be stating the obvious here but to get all 4 up in a lucky 15 the last leg has to run.

[MCLARKE]

17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

If Micheal truly believed in what he is saying or what the analysis/data is saying he would not put a penny piece on a lucky 15 but he did and he won and now he will be about 270 years old before he wins again even if the bonus is 10,000% for all 4 so why isn't he retiring?

I retired many years ago with gains on the stock market, much easier to make money but not as much fun !

Also, if it wasn't for you banging the drum about L15s I would never have had a bet on them so many thanks for that.

As you say you are never too old to learn !

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll be honest and say it was the best horse racing experience in a long time. I actually felt quite relaxed, probably because I knew I was £80 in profit no matter what happened.

I'll admit I was very lucky, as I've I said the odds were over 5,000 to 1 so I don't expect another one at those odds in my lifetime !

However it has got me thinking seriously about the lucky 15. It is a fascinating theoretical concept as well as a practical challenge.

I think the theoretical edge is most for the double odds for 1 winner as opposed to the 15% bonus for 4 winners.

Also the edge increases as the odds increase, but this is countered by the favourite longshot bias.

Then there is the bookies overround to consider.

All before deciding which horse to back. And whether there is a benefit of backing each way in extra place races.

It's giving me a headache thinking about it but I've started to develop a spreadsheet which hopefully look at the various permutations and points me in the right direction.

Remember crap racing v good racing. Might i suggest you have two options to reduce the headache 1) Paracetamol. 2) do what you have always done and forget the lucky 15 aspect until the end. So! we have lots of racing well enough to select 4 horses in the way you have always picked horses (i would be a bit worried about your general bias towards favs or shorties.) As a general rule we look at every race each day looking for a GG but often we are influenced by price and "noise" to cut that out i pick horses without looking at prices anywhere, i often start with the ABC of runners in the SL, jotting down any horse that catches my eye, bit of a bugger when you end up with more than one in a race but that aside i end up with a list of horses which i then sort using standard criteria, ground, distance, course, course and distance and most importantly my notebook etc, this reduces my list from lets just say 12 gg's to the required aim of 4 selections for the L15. So i let the horses pick themselves basically, i do the same with my speed figures i don't choose the horse the speed figures do that for me i don't care what its price is 1/1 or 100/1 although i do disregard odds on shots. So from all my options i may well end up with one or more that standout and is a great price. That is my singles bet, if i really fancy all four i am not averse to backing all 4 in singles and do so many times as i did in my lucky 15 month that i published here last year and the year before. For me it is all about utilising everything i have learnt about the horse and racing. works for me. As for Saturday my 22 year old grandson was buzzing and screaming at the tv far more than me when Corach Rambler jumped the last and he nearly cried when he saw the second gaining ground, i should have videoed him. 🤣 he hadn't even bet the horse (his 3 fell) but he knew i had.

[Zilzalian]

37 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I retired many years ago with gains on the stock market, much easier to make money but not as much fun !

Also, if it wasn't for you banging the drum about L15s I would never have had a bet on them so many thanks for that.

As you say you are never too old to learn !

I meant retiring from doing L15's 😁😁😄

[MCLARKE]

7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

As for Saturday my 22 year old grandson was buzzing and screaming at the tv far more than me when Corach Rambler jumped the last and he nearly cried when he saw the second gaining ground, i should have videoed him. 🤣 he hadn't even bet the horse (his 3 fell) but he knew i had.

I don't think I'll see much of the £993, my wife's already got her eyes on £600 of it for a dress for my daughter's wedding !

 

[MCLARKE]

BET 365. I've done away with the each way for the time being, until I've done further research

[The Equaliser]

b/fwd -5.80

L15

3.00 Red Belhaven 3/1

3.55 Kel Atlantic Dancer 9/2

5.45 Tram Jump The Shark 10/3

8.00 Km Assessment 5/2

1 x 0.20 L15 = 3.00 poss ret 155.80

-------------------------------------------------------------

Two winners returned 5.97 points so 2.97 profit on the day.  The carry forward is now -2.83

Edited April 17, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[justanotherpunter]

Day 26
Redcar      4.10    Leading Company    10/1ew    
Windsor    4.20    Carp Kid                   14/1ew    4pl
Redcar      4.40    Merseyside               20/1ew    4pl
Windsor    5.55    Zuraig                       22/1ew    
£3.00 ew lucky15
potential returns £10,211.13

[LEE-GRAYS]

7 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Ok here we go for another week of profit 💰💰good luck all 👍

Winner and 2 places £10.70 back 👍

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

i would still do them but that is because i would still make money without the bonus's.

I reckon, in the absence of any bonus, you’d probably be better doing yankees than lucky 15 though it might depend on the odds range. Definitely at around the 8/1 mark. If you’re not getting a boost for one winner then it’s better to bin the singles off when one winner would return less than you staked. 

Does anyone pay 3 x the odds for one winner or is that long gone and it’s double the odds now?

[The Equaliser]

29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I reckon, in the absence of any bonus, you’d probably be better doing yankees than lucky 15 though it might depend on the odds range. Definitely at around the 8/1 mark. If you’re not getting a boost for one winner then it’s better to bin the singles off when one winner would return less than you staked. 

Does anyone pay 3 x the odds for one winner or is that long gone and it’s double the odds now?

Betfred pays 3 x the odds for one winner Harry

[Zilzalian]

32 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I reckon, in the absence of any bonus, you’d probably be better doing yankees than lucky 15 though it might depend on the odds range. Definitely at around the 8/1 mark. If you’re not getting a boost for one winner then it’s better to bin the singles off when one winner would return less than you staked. 

Does anyone pay 3 x the odds for one winner or is that long gone and it’s double the odds now?

betfred pay 3x odds 1 winner others may but u would need to check, as for yankees i have an aversion to picking a winner and not getting anything for it 😄ooops looks like someone has answered on my behalf about the 3x odds

Edited April 17, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Betfred pays 3 x the odds for one winner Harry

I can't get the Betfred offers so I'll stick with 2 x in my analysis

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

It's giving me a headache thinking about it but I've started to develop a spreadsheet which hopefully look at the various permutations and points me in the right direction.

There are 16 possible permutations for the 4 horses

WWWW

WWWL

WWLW etc

 

Without any bonuses and without any bookies overround the expected value of the 16 permutations would be 1.00, i.e. breakeven.

I have then calculated the edge for the accumulator bonus and the single win bonus at various odds levels.

So for odds of 1/1 :-

If I add on the accumulator bonus this takes the expected value to 1.009, i.e. the edge is 0.9%.

If I take off the accumulator bonus and add on the single win bonus this takes the expected value to 1.017, i.e. the edge is 1.7%.

The results are :-

I must admit I am surprised at the size of the edge and it goes again the general perception that the bookies favourite bet is the accumulator. This assumes my calculations are correct !

The big benefit appears to be the double the odds for the 1 winner, the influence of which increases as the odds increase. The accumulator benefit remains fairly consistent at 1%.

Perhaps @Zilzalianwas right all along with his belief in lucky 15s.

Obviously this assumes that we can breakeven with our bets. I will review the losses we can expect to make at SP and then see where the sweet spot is in terms of the odds.

 

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Obviously this assumes that we can breakeven with our bets. I will review the losses we can expect to make at SP and then see where the sweet spot is in terms of the odds.

Everyone will be delighted to know that I’ve been crunching the numbers as well! 

The spreadsheet needs a few tweaks then I’ll share my findings. I looked at 3x the odds for 1 winner from the perspective of a losing, break even and winning punter. I’ll run it for double the odds as well as that’s probably more achievable.

Summary is it’s a huge edge, enough to turn a losing singles punter into a winning one or at least reduce the losses, easily make the break even punter a winning one and significantly increase the return of the winning punter. If you’re backing 4 horses a day and can get lucky 15s on with treble the odds for one winner then you should be taking advantage of it.

[LEE-GRAYS]

Nice little profit yesterday let’s have a bit more today 💰

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

There are 16 possible permutations for the 4 horses

WWWW

WWWL

WWLW etc

 

Without any bonuses and without any bookies overround the expected value of the 16 permutations would be 1.00, i.e. breakeven.

I have then calculated the edge for the accumulator bonus and the single win bonus at various odds levels.

So for odds of 1/1 :-

If I add on the accumulator bonus this takes the expected value to 1.009, i.e. the edge is 0.9%.

If I take off the accumulator bonus and add on the single win bonus this takes the expected value to 1.017, i.e. the edge is 1.7%.

The results are :-

I must admit I am surprised at the size of the edge and it goes again the general perception that the bookies favourite bet is the accumulator. This assumes my calculations are correct !

The big benefit appears to be the double the odds for the 1 winner, the influence of which increases as the odds increase. The accumulator benefit remains fairly consistent at 1%.

Perhaps @Zilzalianwas right all along with his belief in lucky 15s.

Obviously this assumes that we can breakeven with our bets. I will review the losses we can expect to make at SP and then see where the sweet spot is in terms of the odds.

 

All Sweet stuff Micheal but you still need the horse/s and they and their odds are the important bit and without some sort of system ie speed figures and or an extensive knowledge of not just horses but how to use the odds of each horse, for example:- picking four favs every day will get you running on the spot and soon falling behind. I have been watching the @The Brigadieron the naps table and his write ups on TV racing, he by any measure knows the time of day as regards horses but even he has had a horror show on his naps selections recently even though i believe he is getting plenty of winners elsewhere so, if he struggles to pick one favish per day what chance the ordinary average punter of picking four? This is why football accas are loved by the bookies and there are only 3 options there, win lose or draw and on top of that over the years they have cut cut and cut the odds on football bets. So yes Lucky15's are a bookies benefit in many ways it is how you use them that is important. Here is an interesting question for you to look at, The Pattern races listed, G3, G2, G1, i digress a tad here but compare those favs to handicap favs, is there any difference? In odds and frequency? The big advantage todays punters have over bookies is computers but how many ordinary/average punters use them for bet selection? I used to used index cards before I had a computer its was horrendous constantly sorting them into different orders. But still even for the average punter with not much money Lucky 15's are a great way to enjoy the sport especially on the TV races. All bets are based on hope, Grand National is a great example for the average punter even if they have 50pew and get the winner they have bragging rights, it is so important that many actually lie about having the winner or back 6 or more horses in the race just to get that bragging right. So i suggest that the more knowledge you have the more chance you have of getting a decent payout with a lucky15 but that still leaves the the randomness for the average punter who hope to just drop lucky one day.

[justanotherpunter]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Betfred pays 3 x the odds for one winner Harry

Hi equaliser correct me if I'm wrong - is betfred the same as skybet with their lucky 15's etc in that they don't pay BOG for these bets - 

Only asking as I was considering joining betfred - and binning skybet - not sure if this would be worthwhile as I never place bets when no BOG available - quite a number of my selections tend to drift and BOG makes a good deal of difference 😃

[justanotherpunter]

Day 26
Redcar      4.10    Leading Company    10/1ew    ------lost
Windsor    4.20    Carp Kid                   14/1ew    4pl---lost
Redcar      4.40    Merseyside               20/1ew    4pl---lost
Windsor    5.55    Zuraig                       22/1ew    ------lost
Day 26 loss £3.00
Overall £94.85 - £3.00 = £91.85 profit

======================================================================

Summary of lucky 15 bets so far -              initial profit    £80.00
                                              further profit after day 26    £91.85
other profits along the way including mclarkes biggie   £994.75
                                                                 overall profit £1,166.60

Overall not a bad little exercise with a decent profit after the stated 26 days.
I will continue to enter selections when possible but will discontinue days and profit/loss.
I will continue to monitor profit/loss in the background to see if this continues to show profit overall.
Good punting to all fellow punters. 

[The Equaliser]

58 minutes ago, justanotherpunter said:

Hi equaliser correct me if I'm wrong - is betfred the same as skybet with their lucky 15's etc in that they don't pay BOG for these bets - 

Only asking as I was considering joining betfred - and binning skybet - not sure if this would be worthwhile as I never place bets when no BOG available - quite a number of my selections tend to drift and BOG makes a good deal of difference 😃

Hi there,

Betfred do pay BOG on their L15's and you get 3 x the odds if you get just one winner.  This account is well worth having IMO.  I also have a Skybet account.  I tend to use this if I can't get an extra place offer through Betfred; though I would always prefer Betfred because I get BOG with my bets and don't get this with Skybet.

For reasons only known to Bet365 they have excluded me from BOG. Thus the only time I use them now is when they are offering the best odds as opposed to the other firms and I feel I won't get better odds anywhere else.

I hope this helps.