Race Chat-Sat 3rd Sept

[The Equaliser]

Will put up the multiples first and come back with singles if I get time

3.30 Hd Naval Crown 4/1 @richard-westwood

3.45 Asc First Ruler 10/3 @TheBrigadier

1 x 3 pt win double = poss return 65.00

---------------------------------------------------------------

2.35 Asc Urban Sprawl 15/2 @cannotbebeat

2.40 Kem First View 9/2 @The Brigadier

3.50 Km Ludos Landing 5/1 @Xcout

5.11 Thsk War Willie 4/1 @calva decoy

6 x 0.25 dble, 4 x 0.25 Trebles and 1 x 0.25 4Fold = 2.75 pts with poss return of 641.84

= 5.75 stakes so far

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Only time to list one singles bet

3.30 Asc Naval Crown 2 pts win at 4/1 and Art Power 1 pt win at 8/1 Both @richard-westwood's selections.  I hope that @The Brigadierdoesn't scupper my bets with Minzaal but will obviously respect it if he does

NB The 3.10 at Ascot has at least 6 PL contributors, not happy about guessing which one will be right

Total stakes now 8.75

Edited September 3, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Ironjoe]

+7.5 pts

Thirsk 2.16 mystic pearl 9/4 1pt win

Haydock 3.30 art power 8/1 0.5pts EW (4) 

Haydock 4.05 atalis bay 7/2 1pt win

Haydock 5.14 la trinidad 3/1 1pt win

4pt outlay

Good luck ? 

 

[Le Doyen]

2 hours ago, Le Doyen said:

Th 1.41   My Honey B    8/1

   4.01    Mr Professor    12/1

Like im sure all of you  i dont mind losing if horse runs to its form/potential but My Honey B hasnt had a race there....no run until way too late!

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Old Borough Handicap (Haydock 2.55)

This has changed name a few times so I have analysed all class 2 handicaps at Haydock in September

Odds > 6/1, 18 from 199, AE 1.30

Last ran less than 23 days ago, 18 from 156, AE 1.28

Not in the top 7 in the weights, 11 from 108, AE 1.43

This leaves HALIPHON at 8/1

 

[richard-westwood]

On 9/2/2022 at 5:24 AM, richard-westwood said:

Old borough cup 

Soulcombe   9.2 class 60  2/1 

Reshoun   8.7 class 48  16/1 

Amtiyaz   8.7 class 48 16/1 

Soulcombe off bottom weight looks like he's gonna be hard to best but there's value in other 2 and they have the ability to spring a surprise if fav flounders 

8pt win soulcombe  1pt savers other 2 

Soulcombe dropped out ....now reshoun and half the field ....I think only 6 or 7 left ....its a joke 

[vikki37]

9 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Soulcombe dropped out ....now reshoun and half the field ....I think only 6 or 7 left ....its a joke 

crazy! more dropped out than horses left! 9 dropped out. 6 left!

[richard-westwood]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:21 PM, Tedthewolf said:

2.55 Haydock Old Borough Cup

I gotta back last years winner in this ISLAND BRAVE 20 /1 BOG 4Places 1/5. It does look a bit stronger race this time around but carrying 3lb less and a 5lb claimer on board who has been getting plenty of winners of late  20/1  e/w looks a cracking bet to me.

 

Great call ...well done 

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ascot 310 

Ropy guest  8.6 class 50 16/1 

Star of orion  8.4  class 51 14/1 

Space tracker 8.2 class 48.5 12/1 

Tough race I'll try 3pt ew all 3 

Ropey and star both placed ...I'm happy with that ?

[Tedthewolf]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:21 PM, Tedthewolf said:

2.55 Haydock Old Borough Cup

I gotta back last years winner in this ISLAND BRAVE 20 /1 BOG 4Places 1/5. It does look a bit stronger race this time around but carrying 3lb less and a 5lb claimer on board who has been getting plenty of winners of late  20/1  e/w looks a cracking bet to me.

 

? beer o’clock

[The Brigadier]

On 9/2/2022 at 8:25 AM, The Brigadier said:

A very interesting afternoons racing with four very hard class 2 handicaps to get our teeth into. On the ground front there is the possibility of a light shower at both Ascot and Haydock but not enough to change the ground conditions which are both on the fast side. Good luck today and here’s my thoughts.

 

Haydock 1.15

Only six go to post for the one mile listed Ascendant Stakes for two year olds. We have a very warm favourite here in the Charlie Appleby trained, William Buick ridden Naval Power who despite a 3lb penalty for his easy Ascot victory six weeks ago will be hard to beat. He steps up to a mile here and that should be well within the compass of this son of Teofilo who is entered in plenty of the end of the season two year old group ones. Tom Clover’s Seeking Gold is held in some regard by the rookie trainer and can chase him home although it’s worth keeping an eye on Roger Teal’s Dancing Magic who’s Newbury second to the promising Tarjeeh has been franked by the subsequent successes of the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 11th. It’s not a betting race for me although if forced to play I would probably go with Dancing Magic without the favourite.

 

Haydock 1.45

A small but select field of eight assemble for the group 3 Superior Mile Stakes. A warm favourite is the John and Thady Gosden trained, Her Majesty owned Reach For The Moon who to my eyes looks extremely short for a horse that has little in hands of his rivals and flopped last time out at Royal Ascot when a well backed odds on favourite. He also sports a first time visor today and I can let him win at around 11/8. Only a pound behind him on official ratings is the Roger Varian trained Bayside Boy who wears blinkers for the first time here. 7th in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot he too was a bit disappointing when backed into favouritism when only 4th of 7 in the group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood. Kevin Ryan’s Triple Time hasn’t been seen since winning at this meeting a year ago and this is surely a big ask after that type of break. The Brigadier’s pin has fallen on Charlie Hill’s Dark Shift who comes here in excellent form having won four of his last six starts including the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot in June. He may not have been suited when dropping to 7F last time when running a highly credible 3rd in the valuable International Handicap to Fresh under a welter weight and can bounce back to winning form here with question marks over a few of these.

 

DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365

 

Kempton 2.05

Eight runners go to post for the group three September stakes run over 12F which features a warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Dubai Honour who is officially the best in here. He’s yet to race on the all weather mind and as we had an odds on chance in Hukum turned over in this race last year I’m happy enough to take on the favourite here. John and Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf flopped badly last time and has been given 58 days off to get over that run. He’s two from two on the all weather including winning here and despite a 3lb penalty appeals as the one to be with with Dane O’Neill doing the steering.

 

MOSTADHAF 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Haydock 2.20

A wide open sixteen runner three year old 1m 6F class two handicap will take some unravelling. There’s plenty in with chances including the William Haggas duo Tamilla who’s chasing a hat trick and Post Impressionist who’s stepping markedly up in trip. There’s little between Michael Bell’s Adjuvant and Charlie Hills’ Inverness on their 3rd and 4th placings in the Melrose Handicap at York last month. The unexposed Open Champion trained by the in form Roger Varian (double on Thursday) is making his handicap debut stepping up in trip although it must be said that his latest win hasn’t worked out that well. A case can be made for others in the race but I’ll take a chance on the Ralph Beckett trained Speycaster who sports first time blinkers here. The gelded son of Highland Reel is only having his seventh career start and maybe open to further improvement. His latest effort when 4th of 14 over course and distance in July can surely be marked up as he slipped leaving the starting gate and ran onto finish only 4 1/2L behind the winner Nathanael Greene. The 2nd and 5th have both won since to frank the form and I can see him running well although I do have slight reservations that he may prefer easier ground (it was soft last time) but hope that the ground doesn’t ride too fast. Hollie Doyle rides.

 

SPEYCASTER 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Haydock 2.55

Another big field of fifteen go to post for the Old Borough Cup, a class 2 handicap run over 1m. With the defection of impressive York winner Soulcombe who would of been a confident selection the race looks open. There’s plenty of decent handicappers here including last years winner Island Brave who’s back to defend his title off of a 3lb lower mark and shouldn’t be totally ruled out. The horse I like is the top weight Euchen Glen who has been unlucky on both his last two starts at Goodwood and in the Ebor last time when he was dropped right out by Paul Mulrennan and ran on to finish 7th although I felt he should of been a far bit closer to the winner Trawlerman. He’s 3lb higher here but can still run well each way.

 

EUCHAN GLEN 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

Kempton 2.40

Yet another competitive class 2 handicap with a maximum field of fourteen going to post for the London Mile Series Final. Plenty with chances here none more so than the Saeed Bun Suroor trained First View who has excellent track form of 112. He had a near impossible task last time when drawn 22 of 22 in the John Smith’s Cup won by subsequent 4L group 3 winner Anmaat with the runner up and fourth also winning since. He did well that day to finish in seventh beaten just under four lengths and with first time cheek pieces (which his trainer has a good record with when using for the first time) and the booking of useful 5lb claimer Christian Howarth (who is the son of the assistant trainer at Bin Suroor’s incidentally) can run a big race and is the selection. There are numerous dangers as one would imagine including the Johnstone’s Dutch Decoy who’s in good form and William Haggas’s Morgan Fairy who’s on a retrieval mission having been turned over at odds on on his last two starts. But it’s all First View for me.

 

FIRST VIEW 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.10

Another competitive class 2 handicap, this time over 7F and a decent sized field of 17 have declared. Favourite here is James Fanshawe’s Fresh who rides this track so well with form figures here of 2123491 and looks sure to be involved in the finish under Daniel Tudhope. George Boughey’s Inver Park won the Buckingham Palace Handicap at the Royal meeting and despite being 4lb higher has the assistance of 3lb apprentice Saffie Osbourne and should also be thereabouts. Kevin Frost’s Documenting did us a turn last time out at Newbury and has a good record in this race having won it in 2020 and finished runner up last year. He’s a pound higher and a year older today but shouldn’t be ruled out. The horse I like though is Clive Cox’s Aratus who’s been unlucky with the draw on his last two starts finishing ahead of his nine strong group last time on the stands side when 6th beaten 3L by Fresh and can re-oppose now on 6lb better terms and hopefully a better draw. He’s berthed in stall 1 so hopefully can tuck in and challenge down the centre with the starting stalls on the stands side today. He’s the main play although I can’t resist a cliff horse for me which is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Shining Blue who may appreciate dropping back in trip to 7F today and is drawn on the stands side thus giving us one on each side.

 

ARATUS 1 1/2 points each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 12345

SHIINING BLUE 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 12345

 

Haydock 3.30

The days feature race is up next - the Betfair Sprint Cup has attracted a decent maximum field of seventeen. There are many form lines involving the big sprints from this summer here and the one horse that I keep coming back to is the Owen Burrows trained Minzaal. A group 3 winner at Newbury in July came three weeks prior to his excellent 3/4L runner up to subsequent Nunthorpe winner Highfield Princess in the 6 1/2F Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville with the re-appearing Rohaan, Naval Crown and Harry Three behind and on that run seemingly held today. Last years winner Emaraaty Ana bounced back to form when 3rd in the Nunthorpe last time although on a line through the winner may have a bit to find with the selection. Kinross is interesting having won well at York last time but is dropping in trip today. Competitive enough but for me Minzaal has the best form and should run a big race and can be backed each way with the extra places.

 

MINZAAL 2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 3.45

Eleven go down to the post for this class 2 three year old handicap where Charlie Appleby saddles 4 of the 11 runners. All four of the runners has a chance of sorts with possibly First Ruler who will be ridden by Ryan Moore the pick of the quartet having scraped home over 10F at the Berkshire track last time. The step up to 1m 4F should suit the son of Dubawi and he can be competitive although fellow stable mates Blue Trail and Al Nafir shouldn’t be dismissed under Neil Callan and Harry Davies respectively. William Haggas saddles La Yakel in his first handicap and is an interesting runner and it’s hard to totally rule out any of these bar possibly the total rag Sandstorm so to small stakes I’ll play First Ruler each way.

 

FIRST RULER 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Another healthy profit of 15.84 points on the day with winners at 11/2, 7/2 (SP 6/1) & 4/1 (10p R4). Hope everyone's found a winner or two today. 

[black rabbit]

On 9/2/2022 at 2:30 PM, black rabbit said:

Shiining blue  -  3 10 asc/   1/10 pt win   15/1 

Cairn gorm     - 5 30 asc/   1/5 pt win   8/1 

Barbill     - 4 05 hay/   1/10 pt ew  38/1     =          N/R 

Night of luxery - 3 45 asc/    1/10 pt win    15/1

Jacovec craven  -  2 20 hyd/   1/10 pt win   10/1

Rumstar   -   3 15 kem/     1/10 pt win    14/1

Island brave - 2 55 hyd/   1/10 pt win   25/1

Flaming rib   - 3 30 hyd/   1/10 pt win     25/1

Intend    -  5 25 nav/    1/10 pt win      15/1 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +152.30  pts 

ISLLAND BRAVE         AND      INTEND  [ in the lucky last at my favourite racecourse ]    deliver the goods

looks like a good night at the "duck" curry house + extras  coming up  - enjoy your beer ted / be lucky

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Will put up the multiples first and come back with singles if I get time

3.30 Hd Naval Crown 4/1 @richard-westwood

3.45 Asc First Ruler 10/3 @TheBrigadier

1 x 3 pt win double = poss return 65.00

---------------------------------------------------------------

2.35 Asc Urban Sprawl 15/2 @cannotbebeat

2.40 Kem First View 9/2 @The Brigadier

3.50 Km Ludos Landing 5/1 @Xcout

5.11 Thsk War Willie 4/1 @calva decoy

6 x 0.25 dble, 4 x 0.25 Trebles and 1 x 0.25 4Fold = 2.75 pts with poss return of 641.84

= 5.75 stakes so far

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Only time to list one singles bet

3.30 Asc Naval Crown 2 pts win at 4/1 and Art Power 1 pt win at 8/1 Both @richard-westwood's selections.  I hope that @The Brigadierdoesn't scupper my bets with Minzaal but will obviously respect it if he does

NB The 3.10 at Ascot has at least 6 PL contributors, not happy about guessing which one will be right

Total stakes now 8.75

RESULTSUPDATE

PODO

I got 2 winners in my multiple and a non- runner  so my bet returned 26.88.  This yielded a net profit on the day of 18.33.  Many thanks to @TheBrigadierand @cannotbebeatfor providing me with the winners.  My MTD is +22.93 & YTD -273.64.  Let's I hope that I get more days like these

There are two meetings tomorrow with some good class racing at York.  there are a few class 4 and upwards races at Fontwell too.

 

[Tedthewolf]

33 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

ISLLAND BRAVE         AND      INTEND  [ in the lucky last at my favourite racecourse ]    deliver the goods

looks like a good night at the "duck" curry house + extras  coming up  - enjoy your beer ted / be lucky

I need a wee visit over there any race courses near by?     M

[The Scientist]

All the hard work put in by tipsters racegoer, jockeys, trainers, owners and having to endure a miserable afternoon at Haydock Park. Horses are not withdrawn on the day for fun. The course must have been in dreadful condition. Luckily I won a couple of the shambles of races. I got so disgusted at seeking 80% of the horses unable to show their form. Two ultra reliable favourites Amtiyaz and Naval Crown pulling up at half way made me feel sick. When Bournemouth lost 0-9 I would have resigned before the final whistle. Yet the media were sympathetic with Scot Parker. But worse was Haydocks Clerk of Course 

"Ive been doing this for 20 years...!"

Unbelievable.  Then buddy you have NO EXCUSE for the biggest course maintenance shambles ever...

[black rabbit]

9 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

I need a wee visit over there any race courses near by?     M

curragh ,  leopardstown , navan ,  all close by to where i am in ireland / but i spend a lot of time in U K  [ newmarket  close by ] ted

[Tedthewolf]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Ropey and star both placed ...I'm happy with that ?

Ropey looks  like he could win one very soon.

Maybe they will stick a good claimer on to take a few lbs off.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

14 hours ago, black rabbit said:

curragh ,  leopardstown , navan ,  all close by to where i am in ireland / but i spend a lot of time in U K  [ newmarket  close by ] ted

Oh ok I used to deliver bookies dockets & do maintenance in the  2  Sean graham shops in Newbridge and passed the curragh  track on my way there always looked a picture beautiful . One shop closed down and Paddy Power took over the other I think. 

[LEE-GRAYS]

On 9/3/2022 at 10:25 AM, LEE-GRAYS said:

day 3 lucky 15

1.15 la teste de buch kintana blue 18/1

1.50 la teste de buch luz ardiden 9/1

2.40 kempton baldomero 9/1

2.55 haydock golden flame 15/2

25p e/w luck 15 + 4x25p e/w singles

pl out £10 in £3.75

Out £5 in £1.05 alright @Zilzalian me old mate going to continue my French thread is same system as yours my system of picking is aimed at the nap comp and £20 challenge I find less horses easier to cope with ??

[black rabbit]

3 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Oh ok I used to deliver bookies dockets & do maintenance in the  2  Sean graham shops in Newbridge and passed the curragh  track on my way there always looked a picture beautiful . One shop closed down and Paddy Power took over the other I think. 

yeah curragh top class/  been hooked on this great/mad game since while still at  school i landed the "spring double"

with- foggy bell and red alligator-  trained by the great  Denys Smith -

[Tedthewolf]

On 9/3/2022 at 11:00 AM, LEE-GRAYS said:

Is barbill ever going to run ??

Entered in the first race at donny on Wednesday 28/1 I’ll be backing Stone  of Destiny  e/w in it.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Tedthewolf