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Racing chat - Friday 1st July


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Sha Tin

6:00

G One Excellent @ 4.80


6:30
E Brother @ 3.30

 

7:00
Bourbonaire @ 3.60
Celestial Power @  3.40 (to be placed 1-2-3)

 

7:30
Mission Smart @  4.60
Winwin Thirtythree @  3.20

 

8:00
Amazing Rocky @ 4.80

 

8:30
Stunning Impact @ 3.40

 

9:05 
Master Eight @ 4.00

 

10:15
Looking Cool @ 5.50

 

10:50
Sakewin @ 3.20

 

good luck all!

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A good winner yesterday in Skittlebombs (BOG 9/1) was followed by sheer frsutration as all three horses nominated for the treble finished in second place. Captain Winters also found one too strong as he was second at Haydock. Some good looking racing coming today with decent cards at Doncaster, Newton Abbott and Sandown.

1-35 Doncaster

Youarenotforgiven had his first run for Tony Carroll last time. He is fully entitled to improve for that run and has to be high on any shortlist given that he finished a creditable second of eight runners in handicap at Nottingham just 18 days ago. He had shown precious little for Jamie Osborne in three previous starts so the fact he ran so well first time out for new connections gives hope that he can improve once more. Ray Dawson has been having his fair share of winners lately and he has already partnered a handful of winners for this stable this year. Youarenotforgiven remains unexposed and is capable of more.

2-00 Newton Abbott

Ami Des Flots had her first run for Kim Bailey having left the Bernard Martin stable. She clearly benefitted from the move to the new yard as she was an excellent second at Ffos Las over two miles four weeks ago. She will be suited by this step up in trip and will hold major claims given that she is such an unknown quantity against these. The Fergal O’Brien trained Pop The Champagne who beat her on that last occasion has gone on to win again at Worcester giving the form a timely boost. Likely to be prominent from the outset, David Bass will be trying the best he can to improve on that game effort last time.

2-10 Doncaster

Sea On Time confirmed the promise that she displayed on debut when readily getting off the mark over an extended 1m3f at Haydock a couple of weeks ago. The Willie Haggas trained filly remains open to further improvement and she is hard to oppose, despite carrying a 6lb penalty. Stevie Donohoe replaces Cieren Fallon in the saddle but this daughter of Sea The Stars is expected to progress again. The trainer has a near 30% strike rate at Doncaster with his runners so the fact she turns up here is noteworthy. The jockey also nearly has a 30% strike rate when riding for the trainer so everything points to a huge run.

2-45 Doncaster (Treble)

Mostly Cloudy arrives in search of a four-timer, having gone up almost two stone in the process. It would be no surprise if the son of Harzand had further progression to come after his latest victory at Nottingham where he won by an easy five lengths when defeating Pons Aelius. The runner up has come out and run well again to give the form a slight boost as he finished in the same position in a subsequent race at Newcastle just last week. Staying is clearly his forte and a further nine-pound hike in the ratings may not prove enough to stop him over a longer distance which promises to suit.

NAP 3-20 Doncaster

Jawwaal has been dropped a further two pounds in the ratings and is beginning to look as though he could be dangerously well handicapped. He is now two-pounds below his last winning mark and he is a multiple course and distance winner. He does need to reverse recent form with Burning Cash but they may not be an impossible task as Jawwaal now receives weight from his old rival as opposed to giving him some. If Michael Dods can get him back to his best, he could prove lethal here.

3-30 Sandown (Treble)

Golden Voice looks to be improving all the time and the form of his head success over the course and distance on his most recent start was boosted when the fourth, Auditor, came out and won readily at Newmarket almost a fortnight later. A five-pound rise looks manageable for the three-year-old son of Havana Gold and William Haggas' charge looks as though he has the right temperament to go in again.

4-30 Doncaster

Idoapologise has been out in the wilderness for a long time since his last win back in 2020 but he was narrowly denied over this course and distance on his most recent appearance. He has been dropped a further pound in the weights by the handicapper and with the ground fully in his favour, it would be of no great surprise to see him go well once again. Ben Robinson has ridden him on numerous occasions in the past and can atone for that most recent defeat here.

4-50 Newton Abbot (Treble)

Nelsons Rock made a successful chase debut over the course and distance last month, jumping soundly. He seems sure to do better today and a five-pound rise may not stop him going in again. That was only his second run following a four-month break and it seems as though the step up in trip to three-and-a-quarter miles really brought out the best in him. Brendan Powell retains the ride on the seven-year-old gelding and with no going concerns, he has to be of obvious interest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Lil guff non runner .....no bet on race as Dunkirk has questions about softer ground ? 

I find it fascinating as to why True Jem did not figure in your ratings?  It is also interesting that its price hasn't changed much overnight despite the withdrawal of Lil Guff.  One can still get 5/2 with William Hill.  Tothenines looks interesting from a market movement point of view

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10 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Sha Tin

6:00

G One Excellent @ 4.80


6:30
E Brother @ 3.30

 

7:00
Bourbonaire @ 3.60
Celestial Power @  3.40 (to be placed 1-2-3)

 

7:30
Mission Smart @  4.60
Winwin Thirtythree @  3.20

 

8:00
Amazing Rocky @ 4.80

 

8:30
Stunning Impact @ 3.40

 

9:05 
Master Eight @ 4.00

 

10:15
Looking Cool @ 5.50

 

10:50
Sakewin @ 3.20

 

good luck all!

Results.

Sha Tin

6:00

G One Excellent @ 4.80 - 3rd


6:30
E Brother @ 3.30 - 9th 

 

7:00
Bourbonaire @ 3.60 - 1st ?

Celestial Power @  3.40 (to be placed 1-2-3) 9th

 

7:30
Mission Smart @  4.60 - 7th 
Winwin Thirtythree @  3.20 4th

 

8:00
Amazing Rocky @ 4.80 12th 

 

8:30
Stunning Impact @ 3.40 - 3rd

 

9:05 
Master Eight @ 4.00 - 6th

 

10:15
Looking Cool @ 5.50  6th 

 

10:50
Sakewin @ 3.20 - 3rd

---

Not good at all.  There were quite a lot of big-priced winners, horses I didn't even consider and horses that the tipsters for the South China Morning Post didn't even consider.  I think it may have been to do with the fact the ground was yielding, and indeed quite a few of the lighter horses won.  Anyway, that's me done with Hong Kong racing for a while.  ? 

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45 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I find it fascinating as to why True Jem did not figure in your ratings?  It is also interesting that its price hasn't changed much overnight despite the withdrawal of Lil Guff.  One can still get 5/2 with William Hill.  Tothenines looks interesting from a market movement point of view

Sometimes the computer spots something ....could be conditions....weight ...anything and rates it lower accordingly ....true gem is best on ground now so most likely winner but if Dunkirk can take ti ground he could win but no guarantees so left alone 

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39 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Sometimes the computer spots something ....could be conditions....weight ...anything and rates it lower accordingly ....true gem is best on ground now so most likely winner but if Dunkirk can take ti ground he could win but no guarantees so left alone 

Thanks.  I'll have a small interest in Dunkirk.  little point in having a saver on True Jem

Haha, I bottled .  1 pt win on Dunkirk at 8.0 & saver 1 pt win on True Jem at 4.1

Edited by The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Not good at all.  There were quite a lot of big-priced winners, horses I didn't even consider and horses that the tipsters for the South China Morning Post didn't even consider.  I think it may have been to do with the fact the ground was yielding, and indeed quite a few of the lighter horses won.  Anyway, that's me done with Hong Kong racing for a while.  ? 

Remember the early months of the pandemic when we only had Hong Kong ........ we could hardly find a winner between us

I just think it's difficult racing ...... lots of 14 runner handicaps with horses, trainers and jockeys that you don't know much about

It's a bit pin-sticker !

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2 for this evening at Haydock,

5.33 Hay - Quavering - 7/2 - First time in a handicap, trainer Ralph Beckett is in excellent form (7 wins, 5 placed from 28 runners). Three runs at amile as a 2yo to get handicapped, now steps up to 1m2f. Has been gelded. decent jockey booked (20% at course ... 38% when teamed up with trainer).

6.38 Hay - Mighty Gurkha - 8/1 EACH WAY (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - First run since being gelded, trainer Archie Watson in decent form ( 4 wins, 5 placed, from 25 runners). Very well treated on his old form (won a Group 3 on polytrack - this is a class 4 hcp). Promising jockey Harry Davies on board... main danger looks to be Hyperfocus (CD x 3 and also well treated on old form)

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37 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Remember the early months of the pandemic when we only had Hong Kong ........ we could hardly find a winner between us

I just think it's difficult racing ...... lots of 14 runner handicaps with horses, trainers and jockeys that you don't know much about

It's a bit pin-sticker !

I was tending towards the jockeys with high strike rates, like Joao Moreira, Zac Purton, was looking at the draw bias and trainer jockey combos with high strike rates - obviously it didn't work out so good! ?

FWIW, there is a load of information on the HKJC website, it has a stats centre, jockey and trainer combo stats, and there are PDFs which tell you how to bet on racing, and also gives you a lot of advice on building a rating system for the races.   The HKJC website has the most comprehensive statistic for free that I have ever seen.  It seems they are completely transparent in the information.

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2.45 Don Storm Chaser 3/1

5.33 Hd Dal Mallart 3/1

6.53 Bev Sherdil 11/4

8.23 Bev Scottish Dancer 9/4

6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 0.5 win 4fold = 5.50 stakes with poss return of 244.33 points:

Singles:

1.00 Don Emily Post 1 pt win (lost)

5.33 Hd Dal Mallart 2 pts win at 4.2 (My PL nap today).  1 pt win on Quavering at 4.6

7.08 Hd True Jem 1 pt win at 4.1 and The Dunkirk Lads 1 pt win at 8.0

6.53 Bev Cotai West 1 pt win at 6.6 and Vaunted 1 pt win at 8.8

7.53 Bev Stripzee 1 pt win at 6/1

8.55 Bev Paddy Elliott 1 pt win at 5.2

Total points staked today = 15.5

There's a lot of racing today.  Good luck to all having a crack

Edited by The Equaliser
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13 minutes ago, Bang on said:

2 for this evening at Haydock,

5.33 Hay - Quavering - 7/2 - First time in a handicap, trainer Ralph Beckett is in excellent form (7 wins, 5 placed from 28 runners). Three runs at amile as a 2yo to get handicapped, now steps up to 1m2f. Has been gelded. decent jockey booked (20% at course ... 38% when teamed up with trainer).

6.38 Hay - Mighty Gurkha - 8/1 EACH WAY (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - First run since being gelded, trainer Archie Watson in decent form ( 4 wins, 5 placed, from 25 runners). Very well treated on his old form (won a Group 3 on polytrack - this is a class 4 hcp). Promising jockey Harry Davies on board... main danger looks to be Hyperfocus (CD x 3 and also well treated on old form)

OK you've scared me about my nap.  I'll have a 1 pt cover bet on Quavering at 4.6.  Good luck with your selection

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Amis Des Flots 2:00 Newton Abbot (5/2 SBK). Promising hurdles debut when runner up at Ffos Las and winner has gone in again since. Front running style works well round here. Fav has been well backed but looks to me like he wants softer than this.

 

fav won easily ?

Edited by yossa6133
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21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

638 hay

Hyperfocus   8.6  3.9 

Cuban breeze   8.3  15/2 

Oso rapido   7.7 

4pt win hyper ... 2pt win Cuban 

Hyperfocus wins nicely ...small profit of around 2pt on day overall but a profit is always a step nearer that hol ?

Edited by richard-westwood
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6 hours ago, Bang on said:

2 for this evening at Haydock,

5.33 Hay - Quavering - 7/2 - First time in a handicap, trainer Ralph Beckett is in excellent form (7 wins, 5 placed from 28 runners). Three runs at amile as a 2yo to get handicapped, now steps up to 1m2f. Has been gelded. decent jockey booked (20% at course ... 38% when teamed up with trainer).

6.38 Hay - Mighty Gurkha - 8/1 EACH WAY (1/5th 4 places with Skybet) - First run since being gelded, trainer Archie Watson in decent form ( 4 wins, 5 placed, from 25 runners). Very well treated on his old form (won a Group 3 on polytrack - this is a class 4 hcp). Promising jockey Harry Davies on board... main danger looks to be Hyperfocus (CD x 3 and also well treated on old form)

Quavering - lost - well done to @The Equaliserfor finding the winner

Mighty Gurkha - 2nd 11/1 - jockey made the wrong decision to go up the rails and had to take a different route costing a little ground, would have been close IMO. Place part returns a small profit on the selection. The danger Hyperfocus won .... forecast paid £22.20.

** Note to self - I must start doing these forecasts. ☹️

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.45 Don Storm Chaser 3/1

5.33 Hd Dal Mallart 3/1

6.53 Bev Sherdil 11/4

8.23 Bev Scottish Dancer 9/4

6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trebles and 1 0.5 win 4fold = 5.50 stakes with poss return of 244.33 points:

Singles:

1.00 Don Emily Post 1 pt win (lost)

5.33 Hd Dal Mallart 2 pts win at 4.2 (My PL nap today).  1 pt win on Quavering at 4.6

7.08 Hd True Jem 1 pt win at 4.1 and The Dunkirk Lads 1 pt win at 8.0

6.53 Bev Cotai West 1 pt win at 6.6 and Vaunted 1 pt win at 8.8

7.53 Bev Stripzee 1 pt win at 6/1

8.55 Bev Paddy Elliott 1 pt win at 5.2

Total points staked today = 15.5

There's a lot of racing today.  Good luck to all having a crack

RESULTS UPDATE

I rated 17 races using RPR & TImeform's figures.  There were 5 winners and 12 losers.  Getting my best odds still meant a small loss on a 1 point-win basis.  I suppose I should feel fortunate that I chose two singles winners and had a winning double in my multiple bet, however, this seems a bit disappointing to me.  Anyway, my nap won well and I achieved a 5.29 profit on the day so at least I start the month OK.  My YTD is -137.73

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