Racing Chat - Wednesday May 4th

[The Brigadier]

Chester 1.30

Seven speedy two year olds go to the start for this year’s renewal of the 5F Lily Agnes conditions stakes. Two unbeaten fillies head the market - the Gay Kelleway trained Ocean Cloud who’s looked very fast in making all in two 5F contests on the all weather at Kempton and the David O’Meara trained Star Of Lady M who’s won both her starts on soft ground this Spring. David Loughnane saddles his Southwell winner Absolutelyflawless who runs in the colours of David Lowe and is another possible but this maybe fought out by the two fillies with slight preference for Ocean Cloud who hopefully can ping the gates and across to the rail from stall 4 and lead them all a merry dance under Luke Morris.

 

OCEAN CLOUD 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Chester 2.05

A seven runner 5F handicap for three year olds is up next and features the best bet on the card in the Adam West trained Live In The Dream. West may not be a household name but is a very capable trainer based at Epsom who has his string in fine form winning with 4 of his last 16 runners under both codes. He proved he was a sprinter going places when making all and keeping in well to win a similar grade of handicap at Sandown by just under 4L which takes some doing in a sprint handicap on a grade one track. The handicapper has reacted by putting him up 8lb but that could of been worse and from a plum draw in two with only the seasonal debutant Nymphadora on his inside and Ryan Moore taking over from 5lb claiming apprentice Sean Kirrane looks a good bet to make all. Shamlaan is chasing a hat trick following victories at Wolverhampton and a hard fought success at Goodwood last weekend. He’s penalised 6lb for that win. Novello has course form of 12 and with Buick booked may be the biggest threat to Live In The Dream.

 

LIVE IN THE DREAM 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Chester 2.40

Ten three year old fillies assemble for the listed 1m 3F 75yds Cheshire Oaks, a race which the great Enable took apart before winning the Epsom Oaks five years ago. It’s highly unlikely that we have a filly of her calibre in this year’s field but there are as you would expect some promising fillies taking part. At the head of them is the Joseph O’Brien trained Above The Curve who has plenty of fancy future group entries. She was highly impressive when winning a Leopardstown maiden last month on her re-appearance. O’Brien was gushing with compliments about her afterwards and she looks sure to be thereabouts today. Joseph’s father Aidan saddles Thoughts Of June but she was just under 3L behind Above The Curve and needs to step up here. Behind her in the betting are two fillies trained by Newmarket handlers William Haggas and Simon & Ed Crisford in Hello Jumeirah and Night Battle who have both won maiden/novice events on the all weather on their sole starts. Both have abundant promise but will need to step up on form. With Above The Curve’s Leopardstown form working out so well with the 3rd and 5th winning since she looks the most likely winner and is the bet here.

 

ABOVE THE CURVE 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Chester 3.10

A valid Epsom Derby trial is the Boodles Chester Vase, a group 3 contest run over 1m 4F 63yds which has gone to Aiden O’Brien on six of the last eight runnings so his representative Changingoftheguard has to of interest here. Beaten in all three starts as a juvenile he broke his duck at Dundalk in April in decent style at odds on. He’ll need to step up to continue O’Brien’s fine run in this race as we have a very warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained New London who was very well supported for the Derby on Monday and is now a general 5/1 shot for that race. He stepped up from his two year old maiden win at Newmarket to win at the Newmarket Craven meeting under a 7lb penalty by 2 1/4L from the equally promising Kempton winner Aldous Huxley in a 10F novices stakes and with the Appleby yard seemingly holding all the aces with the three year old colts can take this and enhance his Epsom chance.

 

Chester 3.40

A nine runner 6F three year old handicap completes the Chester ITV programme and as with all Chester races over sprint distances the draw is very significant. Stall 1 houses the Marco Botti runner Golden Warrior who’s been plying his trade on the all weather recently but was tailed off last time. In stall 2 is the likeable Ever Given trained by Hugo Palmer who will be ultra keen to saddle a winner or two at this meeting so close to the new yard that he’s taken over from recently. He’s not been seen since last October but for the aforementioned reason will surely be fit to go here. He already has a win at the track on his CV having won over 7F here last July and he kept good company there after. He’s the one I want to be with here. Richard Fahey’s Buckshaw Village was an eye catcher at Ripon last time when he was short of room close home over 5F and this step up to 6F will suit him from stall 4. He looks the biggest threat to my selection Ever Given.

 

EVER GIVEN 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

[Villa Chris]

I fancy Above The Curve and 7/4 looks decent 

 

 

2.05 Chester 

Novello 9.16 (11/2)

Hellomydarlin 8.86 (17/2)

Vintage Clarets 8.46 (6/1)

5 points win Novello 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Villa Chris

[kensland]

Chester. 

Single. 

2.40.Moon De Vega.        10/1.... unpl 

Good luck all. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by kensland

[Zilzalian]

Another day of absolutely shocking race planning think they need to go back to a proper break for the jumps, ITS THE FLAT SEASON but you wouldn't know it from this garbage.

[cannotbebeat]

All Nicholls/Cobden runners

Newton Abbott
1.15 Wild Max 13/8

1.50 Rouge Vif 6/4

3.30 Skatman 5/2

4.00 Real Steel 5/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[richard-westwood]

340 chest

Ever given  8.8 3/1 

Pocket the profit  8.6 5.6 betfair

These 2 are clear of rest ....I'll try 10pt wins ...1pt forecasts 

[Zilzalian]

Speed

130 ches ocean cloud                                7/2        2nd

205 ches 1 navello                    131          13/2        

               1 shamlaan                131           11/2       3rd

               3 resilience                 130           16/1

240 ches 1 Improvise                113           22/1

               2 morning poem        111          11/1

340 ches 1 auditor                     124          8/1

               2 ever given                123          11/4      1st

               3 lucky man                120          12/1       3rd

Update all this rain will affect these numbers....

Edited May 4, 2022 by Zilzalian
update

[richard-westwood]

445 chest 

Paws fir thought  8.2 6/1 

Gabriel the wire  8.0 8/1 

Ffion   7.4 

5pt ew top 2 ...1pt reverse forecast top 2 

[calva decoy]

23 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Another day of absolutely shocking race planning think they need to go back to a proper break for the jumps, ITS THE FLAT SEASON but you wouldn't know it from this garbage.

Get your point but it's far better than yesterday with loads of Group & Listed at Chester & Gowran Park & it's only Wednesday not the weekend .

700 Kempton - SUBSTANTIAL 6/5  1st

800 Kempton - KING ZAIN 5/4 1st

3.95/1 Win Double .

Edited May 4, 2022 by calva decoy
results update

[Wildgarden]

12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

445 chest 

Paws fir thought  8.2 6/1 

Gabriel the wire  8.0 8/1 

Ffion   7.4 

5pt ew top 2 ...1pt reverse forecast top 2 

i have gabriel top

[LEE-GRAYS]

2.15 Kelso dalileo 18/1 e/w not bad irish a/w horse bet365 

[kensland]

Chester. 

Double. 

4.45.Paws for Thought.       4/1... unpl 

2.40.Moon De Vega.            9/1... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

1.50 NAb Rouge Vif 5/2

7.10 Fon Ballycamus 9/4

7.30 Km Light Lilly 11/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 79.34

Had a go at @richard-westwood's 4.45 at Chester.  I have included Fifon in the bet as I like Will Buick.  I should have only backed the strongly fancied ones for the win bets last night and held out for better prices on the others later this morning.  Anyway, Paws For thought 1 pt win 6.8, Fifon 1 pt win at 6.8 and Gabriel The Wire 1 pt win at 13.00.  Six Forecasts at 0.37 and 6 Tricasts at 0.30 = 4.02 pts + 3 = 7.02 stakes.  Nb I will not be showing any profit and loss figures in my daily record reporting regarding theses bets but will of course comment on any wins that may come my way 

Total stakes today = 11.02

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No winners so far

7.30 Km 1.82 points at 3.25 = poss return of 4.01

Total book stakes = 5.82

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Bang on]

2 selections today,

3.40 Chester - Ever Given - 9/4 - Chester not my favourite course for betting but this looks to have a strong chance.

3.50 kelso - Douglas talking - 7/4 - A tricky handicap chase, but my selection process throws this one up.

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

2.15 Kelso dalileo 18/1 e/w not bad irish a/w horse bet365 

3rd 28/1 ??

[The Brigadier]

On 5/3/2022 at 2:21 PM, The Brigadier said:

Chester 1.30

Seven speedy two year olds go to the start for this year’s renewal of the 5F Lily Agnes conditions stakes. Two unbeaten fillies head the market - the Gay Kelleway trained Ocean Cloud who’s looked very fast in making all in two 5F contests on the all weather at Kempton and the David O’Meara trained Star Of Lady M who’s won both her starts on soft ground this Spring. David Loughnane saddles his Southwell winner Absolutelyflawless who runs in the colours of David Lowe and is another possible but this maybe fought out by the two fillies with slight preference for Ocean Cloud who hopefully can ping the gates and across to the rail from stall 4 and lead them all a merry dance under Luke Morris.

 

OCEAN CLOUD 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Chester 2.05

A seven runner 5F handicap for three year olds is up next and features the best bet on the card in the Adam West trained Live In The Dream. West may not be a household name but is a very capable trainer based at Epsom who has his string in fine form winning with 4 of his last 16 runners under both codes. He proved he was a sprinter going places when making all and keeping in well to win a similar grade of handicap at Sandown by just under 4L which takes some doing in a sprint handicap on a grade one track. The handicapper has reacted by putting him up 8lb but that could of been worse and from a plum draw in two with only the seasonal debutant Nymphadora on his inside and Ryan Moore taking over from 5lb claiming apprentice Sean Kirrane looks a good bet to make all. Shamlaan is chasing a hat trick following victories at Wolverhampton and a hard fought success at Goodwood last weekend. He’s penalised 6lb for that win. Novello has course form of 12 and with Buick booked may be the biggest threat to Live In The Dream.

 

LIVE IN THE DREAM 3 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Chester 2.40

Ten three year old fillies assemble for the listed 1m 3F 75yds Cheshire Oaks, a race which the great Enable took apart before winning the Epsom Oaks five years ago. It’s highly unlikely that we have a filly of her calibre in this year’s field but there are as you would expect some promising fillies taking part. At the head of them is the Joseph O’Brien trained Above The Curve who has plenty of fancy future group entries. She was highly impressive when winning a Leopardstown maiden last month on her re-appearance. O’Brien was gushing with compliments about her afterwards and she looks sure to be thereabouts today. Joseph’s father Aidan saddles Thoughts Of June but she was just under 3L behind Above The Curve and needs to step up here. Behind her in the betting are two fillies trained by Newmarket handlers William Haggas and Simon & Ed Crisford in Hello Jumeirah and Night Battle who have both won maiden/novice events on the all weather on their sole starts. Both have abundant promise but will need to step up on form. With Above The Curve’s Leopardstown form working out so well with the 3rd and 5th winning since she looks the most likely winner and is the bet here.

 

ABOVE THE CURVE 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Chester 3.10

A valid Epsom Derby trial is the Boodles Chester Vase, a group 3 contest run over 1m 4F 63yds which has gone to Aiden O’Brien on six of the last eight runnings so his representative Changingoftheguard has to of interest here. Beaten in all three starts as a juvenile he broke his duck at Dundalk in April in decent style at odds on. He’ll need to step up to continue O’Brien’s fine run in this race as we have a very warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained New London who was very well supported for the Derby on Monday and is now a general 5/1 shot for that race. He stepped up from his two year old maiden win at Newmarket to win at the Newmarket Craven meeting under a 7lb penalty by 2 1/4L from the equally promising Kempton winner Aldous Huxley in a 10F novices stakes and with the Appleby yard seemingly holding all the aces with the three year old colts can take this and enhance his Epsom chance.

 

Chester 3.40

A nine runner 6F three year old handicap completes the Chester ITV programme and as with all Chester races over sprint distances the draw is very significant. Stall 1 houses the Marco Botti runner Golden Warrior who’s been plying his trade on the all weather recently but was tailed off last time. In stall 2 is the likeable Ever Given trained by Hugo Palmer who will be ultra keen to saddle a winner or two at this meeting so close to the new yard that he’s taken over from recently. He’s not been seen since last October but for the aforementioned reason will surely be fit to go here. He already has a win at the track on his CV having won over 7F here last July and he kept good company there after. He’s the one I want to be with here. Richard Fahey’s Buckshaw Village was an eye catcher at Ripon last time when he was short of room close home over 5F and this step up to 6F will suit him from stall 4. He looks the biggest threat to my selection Ever Given.

 

EVER GIVEN 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

2 winners from 4 selections for a profit of 8.25 points. Thursday's thoughts have been uploaded. Hope everyone found a winner or two.

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

340 chest

Ever given  8.8 3/1 

Pocket the profit  8.6 5.6 betfair

These 2 are clear of rest ....I'll try 10pt wins ...1pt forecasts 

 

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

445 chest 

Paws fir thought  8.2 6/1 

Gabriel the wire  8.0 8/1 

Ffion   7.4 

5pt ew top 2 ...1pt reverse forecast top 2 

Winner and Paws  done on the line in the 2nd race by ffion ... .good runs ....probably close to break even again on the day ....very very unlucky 

Edited May 4, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Bang on]

4 hours ago, Bang on said:

2 selections today,

3.40 Chester - Ever Given - 9/4 - Chester not my favourite course for betting but this looks to have a strong chance.

3.50 kelso - Douglas talking - 7/4 - A tricky handicap chase, but my selection process throws this one up.

Ever Given - WON 9/4

Douglas talking - lost

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

 

Winner and done on the line in the 2nd race by ffion ... .good runs ....probably close to break even again on the day ....very very unlucky 

Including Fion gave me a profit of 5.78 points so many thanks.  The Forecast returned 4.78 which is about right for 37p x £12.92 as detailed under the SF returns.  What I don't understand is that Bet365 show the combined odds for my selections as being 47.36.  Hence, does it matter what odds I initially get when placing the bet and will I always just receive a proportion of the final forecast value if I am staking less than a pound?  Just a bit confused on that.

The odds of @richard-westwoodseemed to be hammered on Ever Given, backed into 11/8 favourite.  Just goes to show one has to be shrewd about getting the right odds for the win bets

[richard-westwood]

7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Including Fion gave me a profit of 5.78 points so many thanks.  The Forecast returned 4.78 which is about right for 37p x £12.92 as detailed under the SF returns.  What I don't understand is that Bet365 show the combined odds for my selections as being 47.36.  Hence, does it matter what odds I initially get when placing the bet and will I always just receive a proportion of the final forecast value if I am staking less than a pound?  Just a bit confused on that.

The odds of @richard-westwoodseemed to be hammered on Ever Given, backed into 11/8 favourite.  Just goes to show one has to be shrewd about getting the right odds for the win bets

Yeah I always check oddschecker and then check betfair before I place any bet .......then decide what bet based on which gives me the best value 

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah I always check oddschecker and then check betfair before I place any bet .......then decide what bet based on which gives me the best value 

Bet365 give best odds guarantee on forecasts, so someone on here told me last year, i was sceptical and so i checked and found that he was correct. when you put your forecast on you can click "see odds" on your slip and it will tell you what they are at that time, note it down and check against the returns in the Racing post results if you collect. Same with tricasts.

[The Equaliser]

43 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Bet365 give best odds guarantee on forecasts, so someone on here told me last year, i was sceptical and so i checked and found that he was correct. when you put your forecast on you can click "see odds" on your slip and it will tell you what they are at that time, note it down and check against the returns in the Racing post results if you collect. Same with tricasts.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/betting/racing/what-is-a-combination-forecast-bet-how-does-it-work-explained/

Looks like you just get the computer straight forecast in proportion.

All very confusing

Maybe your contact was referring to a sport other than horse or greyhound racing where it looks as though Bet365 do not apply the fixed odds.  

I don't know how the Computer Straight Forecasts are derived.  Will have to look into this.

Many thanks for your reply

Edited May 4, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/betting/racing/what-is-a-combination-forecast-bet-how-does-it-work-explained/

Looks like you just get the computer straight forecast in proportion.

All very confusing

Maybe your contact was referring to a sport other than horse or greyhound racing where it looks as though Bet365 do not apply the fixed odds.  

I don't know how the Computer Straight Forecasts are derived.  Will have to look into this.

Many thanks for your reply

it was someone on here that told me and i checked when i had got some up and what he said was true. The forecast is derived at from a "secret" formula that the bookies cooked up years ago and have updated several times since, that last "cut" being if horses are drawn side by side (track bias). forecasts are returned to a one pound unit stake so are settled to that unit ie if you have 50p on you get half the forecast returned. 47p and you get 47% back unlest you have taken an earlier price on bet365. forecasts were traditionally worked out by adding 1 point onto the sp of the 2nd placed horse and then multiplied together with the sp of the winner but we are a million miles away from that now.

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

it was someone on here that told me and i checked when i had got some up and what he said was true. The forecast is derived at from a "secret" formula that the bookies cooked up years ago and have updated several times since, that last "cut" being if horses are drawn side by side (track bias). forecasts are returned to a one pound unit stake so are settled to that unit ie if you have 50p on you get half the forecast returned. 47p and you get 47% back unlest you have taken an earlier price on bet365. forecasts were traditionally worked out by adding 1 point onto the sp of the 2nd placed horse and then multiplied together with the sp of the winner but we are a million miles away from that now.

Thanks for that.  I read that the computer forecast is worked out by a computer calculation system that takes account of the size of field and the SP of the runners one selects.  There seem to be no stated rules about how they adjust this for the size of the field.  However, if I look at the 4.45 at Chester the SPs of the winner and second were 5/2 & 9/2.  If I work out a double based on this I come up with £19.25. They paid out £12.92 and hence reduced it by £6.33 presumably because there were 11 runners.  All to their benefit.

The odds that I took for my selections were something like 11/2 & 6/1 which I calculate to be around £45.50 for a double.  Bet365 showed my combined odds to be 47.36.  If I had been paid out on this basis I think that it should have been 47.36 x 0.37 = £17.52.  Instead, I got a measly £4.78.

Maybe I'm not looking at this properly and I have calculated it all incorrectly but if I'm right it all looks like a rip-off.

Incidentally, the Telegraph article seemed to imply that Paddy Power would payout on a forecast at fixed odds taken but looking at Paddy Power's details I don't think that they would.

 

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.50 NAb Rouge Vif 5/2

7.10 Fon Ballycamus 9/4

7.30 Km Light Lilly 11/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 79.34

Had a go at @richard-westwood's 4.45 at Chester.  I have included Fifon in the bet as I like Will Buick.  I should have only backed the strongly fancied ones for the win bets last night and held out for better prices on the others later this morning.  Anyway, Paws For thought 1 pt win 6.8, Fifon 1 pt win at 6.8 and Gabriel The Wire 1 pt win at 13.00.  Six Forecasts at 0.37 and 6 Tricasts at 0.30 = 4.02 pts + 3 = 7.02 stakes.  Nb I will not be showing any profit and loss figures in my daily record reporting regarding theses bets but will of course comment on any wins that may come my way 

Total stakes today = 11.02

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No winners so far

7.30 Km 1.82 points at 3.25 = poss return of 4.01

Total book stakes = 5.82

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No luck with my Trixie at all.  Even my get out of jail free bet floundered.  This means - 5.82 on the day.  MTD -6.92 and YTD -236.19

Thank God for @richard-westwood's inspired selections. At least I cleared 2 points profit on the day