Racing Chat - Sunday 1st May

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

Ten go to post for this valuable 14F class 2 heritage handicap. Andrew Balding’s Valley Forge has been gelded since we last saw him last October and this Melrose Handicap winner looks sure to go well if straight enough on his re-appearance. His main danger and my selection is the George Baker trained Cemhaan who impressed when winning over 1m 4F at Salisbury last week. The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that win but that doesn’t come into affect till next week so with just a 5lb penalty today is actually 2lb well in. The extra two furlongs will suit and he has a great chance. The one to watch in the market is Sir Mark Prescott’s Revolver who we haven’t seen for 597 days but was entered in the Ascot Gold Cup earlier this week.

 

CEMHAAN 2 points each way @ 5/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Hamilton 2.35

A disappointing turnout of just four go to post for this 5F conditions stakes for three year olds. At these weights it would appear the race is likely to be fought out by Roger Varina’s Mitbaahy, who’s already run this season when chasing home Boonie at Nottingham in a similar contest and Kevin Ryan’s Gis A Sub who we haven’t seen since Chantilly last October. He has the better form of the pair which includes a second in last seasons Gimcrack at York to Lusail and is dropping to the minimum trip today. Officially a 9lb better horse than Mitbaahy he can take this although it maybe close.

 

GIS A SUB 2 points win @ EVS William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.25

The 10F listed Pretty Polly is a recognised Oaks trial and has attracted seven runners. John and Thady Gosden should have been saddling Inspiral for the 1000 Guineas on this day but she’s not ready and they’re left to run Crenelle here who scraped home in a maiden at the Craven meeting over a mile and she should relish the extra quarter of a mile here for a stable who seem to have a decent guide to the three year old filly scene this season. On a line through the horse that she just touched off then, Fonteyn there is nothing between her and the Roger Varian runner Peripatetic who we haven’t seen since November. A market watch on her is essential. The filly who may have the beating of the pair mind is the Charlie Appleby trained With The Moonlight - a dual winner on the all weather last Autumn before a 2L third here in the listed Montrose Stakes last October. By all accounts she’s been working very well this Spring at Moultons Paddocks and she’s my pick here.

 

WITH THE MOONLIGHT 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Salisbury 2.40

Yet another disappointing turnout with just four turning up here for this 1m 6F handicap which could easily turn to three runners with Zoffee declared to run at Doncaster on Saturday night. Oman heads the weights for Ralph Beckett but hasn’t been seen since October although he did win first time out last season. His main danger appears to be the Andrew Balding runner Spirit Mixer who’s already had a run this season, here over 12F when 4th of 6 to Cemhaan. 5lb apprentice Callum Hutchinson keeps the ride today.

Not a very inspiring race but I’ll go with Oman who’s won fresh and has the best form.

 

OMAN 2 point win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 3.00

Seven fillies and mares go to post for the 9F Group 2 Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes. Best in at the weights is the Ed Walker trained Dreamloper who’s defeat of Lights Out at Ascot last July looks decent form now with that one winning last week. She bettered that run by finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot over a mile here on her final start and must have claims. Francis Graffard brings over Ebaiyra as well as his Oaks hope Malavath and should also be thereabouts. The mare I like though is the Sir Michael Stoute trained four year old Ville De Grace who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. Stoute has won this race before and she was last seen when winning the 10F Group 3 Pride Stakes here last October. She only had half a length to spare over Lilac Road who re-opposes here on the same terms and also has claims. The word from Newmarket is that Ville De Grace is ready to go and she’s a strong fancy.

 

VILLE DE GRACE 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.40

Fourteen three year old fillies assemble for this years renewal of the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien saddles a brace in favourite Tenebrism who was last seen winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park over 6F here in September and the big question over her is will she stay? There’s plenty of speed in the pedigree but at around 3/1 I’m happy not to pay to find out. His other runner Tuesday is a very promising horse being a full sister to the very smart Minding (winner of this and the Oaks) and can’t be ruled out although she’ll need to step up dramatically on form. As well as the two Aiden O’Brien runners Ireland is represented by Ger Lyon’s Juncture who doesn’t look good enough and Jessie Harrington’s Discoveries who as a full sister to Alpha Centurai will relish the fast ground. She should be thereabouts although her yard have been a bit hit and miss this season so far. I think the French may take this and am prepared to back both of their runners. Francis Graffard has a good record when he brings horses over here and has won big races with Watch Me and The Revenant in the past. His representative Malavath appears to have all the credentials to run a big race having finished runner up at the Breeders Cup on very fast ground as well as taking the principal French 1000 Guineas trial the Prix Imprudence by 1 1/2L from Andre Fabre’s Zellie. She looks sure to be thereabouts and so can Zellie who was tenderly handled when finishing runner up in the French trial and as a Group 1 winner already (she won the Prix Marcel Boussac last Arc weekend) has the class to run well as long as she handles the fastish surface which she’s yet to encounter. With stamina doubts about the favourite it’s the French pair I’ll be backing with Malavath the number one.

 

MALAVATH 2 points each way @ 7/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

ZELLIE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

[richard-westwood]

150 newm 

Dark jedi    8.4  6/1 

Sir rumi    8.3  6/1 

Soapy Stevens   8.0  9/1 

Valley forge    7.9 

5pt ew top 2 ...24x10p tricasts top 4 

[richard-westwood]

1000 guineas 

Tenebrism   9.0  4/1 

Cachet     8.6   22/1 

Mis en scene   8.4  20/1 

Prosperous voyage   8.2 

Hard to know how tenebrism will cope with the huge step up from 6f to 8f ....she's the most likely winner given o brien record but there looks plenty of value to take her  on .....Cachet proved she can stay 8f last year and was staying on strong over 7f recently ....so looks worth a shot ....the other two have collateral firm with Cachet but mis en scene could have more to give as was a little unlucky so I'll take those 2,ew as value bets 

5pt ew Cachet....and ..mis en scene..... 24x10p tricasts 

Edited April 30, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

Speed in no particular order.

Hello you             40/1

Mise en scene      20/1

Sandrine               33/1

Tenebrism             3/1      (no singles bet for me at that  stupid price)

Catchet                 20/1

aw f/c 1st 3  aw tc all 4

Note Zellie hard to rate due to the ground but Fabre doesn't send them for a day out and was schooled in public lto behind Malavath.

 

Mise En Scene being a non runner brings Catchet into the top 4 but like yesterday there are a few non stayers in here.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Zilzalian

[kensland]

Salisbury. 

Single. 

3.17.Baccarat Baby.     7/1..... 2nd 

Hamilton. 

Double. 

2.05.Tribal Art.    7/2... 2nd 

4.21.Enkindle.           9/2.... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

1.50 Newmarket 

Red Verdon 9.1 (14/1)

Cemhaan 8.6 (5/1) 1st

Revolver 8.4 (15/2) 2nd 

Red Vernon potentially thrown in with his 7Ibs claimer Harry Davies 42% strike rate last two weeks. Also drop down in class . 
 

5 point wins top two 

 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1000 guineas 

Tenebrism   9.0  4/1 

Cachet     8.6   22/1 

Mis en scene   8.4  20/1 

Prosperous voyage   8.2 

Hard to know how tenebrism will cope with the huge step up from 6f to 8f ....she's the most likely winner given o brien record but there looks plenty of value to take her  on .....Cachet proved she can stay 8f last year and was staying on strong over 7f recently ....so looks worth a shot ....the other two have collateral firm with Cachet but mis en scene could have more to give as was a little unlucky so I'll take those 2,ew as value bets 

5pt ew Cachet....and ..mis en scene..... 24x10p tricasts 

Big prices so I'll add 50p forecasts top 4 

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Big prices so I'll add 50p forecasts top 4 

pity about mise en scene being a nr i quite fancied it.

[calva decoy]

250 Long Gr3 - Burgarita 10/3 

325 Long Gr1 - Mare Australis 4/1 

445 Long Gr3 - Buble Smart 5/2 

Win Patent .

[cannotbebeat]

Newmarket
1.15 Beautiful Sunrise 4/1

4.50 Bell Shot 13/2

Good luck all CNBB.

[black rabbit]

Discoveries    3 40   NEW     1/4 pt win   10/1

Climate    3 00 NEW     1/4  pt win    20/1 

 

 

 

 

P/L    +  122.5   pts   

Edited May 1, 2022 by black rabbit

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

250 Long Gr3 - Burgarita 10/3 

325 Long Gr1 - Mare Australis 4/1 

445 Long Gr3 - Buble Smart 5/2 

Win Patent .

i suspect Sheirgan may have a good day at munich fabre has been having a good few touched off lately have you noticed? but i think will do well today

Edited May 1, 2022 by Zilzalian

[calva decoy]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

i suspect Sheirgan may have a good day at munich fabre has been having a good few touched off lately have you noticed? but i think will do well today

Schiergen didn't do too well at Longchamp  in the week with Quello or Principe , I don't really do German racing though do take note if A.Wohler sends one to the UK if 10-14f race , I'm surprised with the term " good " being in the goings this time of year in France  , disappointing , rather soft / heavy .

Edited May 1, 2022 by calva decoy

[richard-westwood]

15 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1000 guineas 

Tenebrism   9.0  4/1 

Cachet     8.6   22/1 

Mis en scene   8.4  20/1 

Prosperous voyage   8.2 

Hard to know how tenebrism will cope with the huge step up from 6f to 8f ....she's the most likely winner given o brien record but there looks plenty of value to take her  on .....Cachet proved she can stay 8f last year and was staying on strong over 7f recently ....so looks worth a shot ....the other two have collateral firm with Cachet but mis en scene could have more to give as was a little unlucky so I'll take those 2,ew as value bets 

5pt ew Cachet....and ..mis en scene..... 24x10p tricasts 

Replace  mis en scene with Prosperous voyage for the ew single  due to non runner 

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

3.17 Sal Katy Kontent 2/1

4.21 Ham Cubana Habana 7/4

5.02 Sal Ring Fenced 15/8

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 48.48 points

Cover Bets:

3.17 Sal Evolicatt 1 pt win at 5/1

4.21 Ham Manaslu 0.5 pts 16/5 and Enkindle 0.5 pts 14/1

5.02 Sal Chairman 1 pt win at 11/4

Other Bets:

4.15 Nm Super Stars 1 pt win at 5.6

4.50 Nm North Lincoln 1 pt win at 9.8

PL inspired bets

3.00 Nm  Dreamloper 1 pt win at 11/2

3.40 Nm Zellie 1 pt 3 TBP at 4.2

 

Total stakes today = 11 Points

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

150 newm 

Dark jedi    8.4  6/1 

Sir rumi    8.3  6/1 

Soapy Stevens   8.0  9/1 

Valley forge    7.9 

5pt ew top 2 ...24x10p tricasts top 4 

3rd 4th 5th 6th ?

[Villa Chris]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

1.50 Newmarket 

Red Verdon 9.1 (14/1)

Cemhaan 8.6 (5/1) 1st

Revolver 8.4 (15/2) 2nd 

Red Vernon potentially thrown in with his 7Ibs claimer Harry Davies 42% strike rate last two weeks. Also drop down in class . 
 

5 point wins top two 

 

Cemhaan wins 

[ChasingDreams]

2.25 - Crenelle 11/8

3.40 - Tuesday 13/2 (NAP)

Newmarket and Frankie double ??

Amneyah also capable of running a big race in the 1000 Guineas.

Edited May 1, 2022 by ChasingDreams

[The Brigadier]

On 4/30/2022 at 3:30 PM, The Brigadier said:

Newmarket 1.50

Ten go to post for this valuable 14F class 2 heritage handicap. Andrew Balding’s Valley Forge has been gelded since we last saw him last October and this Melrose Handicap winner looks sure to go well if straight enough on his re-appearance. His main danger and my selection is the George Baker trained Cemhaan who impressed when winning over 1m 4F at Salisbury last week. The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that win but that doesn’t come into affect till next week so with just a 5lb penalty today is actually 2lb well in. The extra two furlongs will suit and he has a great chance. The one to watch in the market is Sir Mark Prescott’s Revolver who we haven’t seen for 597 days but was entered in the Ascot Gold Cup earlier this week.

 

CEMHAAN 2 points each way @ 5/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Hamilton 2.35

A disappointing turnout of just four go to post for this 5F conditions stakes for three year olds. At these weights it would appear the race is likely to be fought out by Roger Varina’s Mitbaahy, who’s already run this season when chasing home Boonie at Nottingham in a similar contest and Kevin Ryan’s Gis A Sub who we haven’t seen since Chantilly last October. He has the better form of the pair which includes a second in last seasons Gimcrack at York to Lusail and is dropping to the minimum trip today. Officially a 9lb better horse than Mitbaahy he can take this although it maybe close.

 

GIS A SUB 2 points win @ EVS William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.25

The 10F listed Pretty Polly is a recognised Oaks trial and has attracted seven runners. John and Thady Gosden should have been saddling Inspiral for the 1000 Guineas on this day but she’s not ready and they’re left to run Crenelle here who scraped home in a maiden at the Craven meeting over a mile and she should relish the extra quarter of a mile here for a stable who seem to have a decent guide to the three year old filly scene this season. On a line through the horse that she just touched off then, Fonteyn there is nothing between her and the Roger Varian runner Peripatetic who we haven’t seen since November. A market watch on her is essential. The filly who may have the beating of the pair mind is the Charlie Appleby trained With The Moonlight - a dual winner on the all weather last Autumn before a 2L third here in the listed Montrose Stakes last October. By all accounts she’s been working very well this Spring at Moultons Paddocks and she’s my pick here.

 

WITH THE MOONLIGHT 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Salisbury 2.40

Yet another disappointing turnout with just four turning up here for this 1m 6F handicap which could easily turn to three runners with Zoffee declared to run at Doncaster on Saturday night. Oman heads the weights for Ralph Beckett but hasn’t been seen since October although he did win first time out last season. His main danger appears to be the Andrew Balding runner Spirit Mixer who’s already had a run this season, here over 12F when 4th of 6 to Cemhaan. 5lb apprentice Callum Hutchinson keeps the ride today.

Not a very inspiring race but I’ll go with Oman who’s won fresh and has the best form.

 

OMAN 2 point win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Newmarket 3.00

Seven fillies and mares go to post for the 9F Group 2 Betfair Exchange Dahlia Stakes. Best in at the weights is the Ed Walker trained Dreamloper who’s defeat of Lights Out at Ascot last July looks decent form now with that one winning last week. She bettered that run by finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot over a mile here on her final start and must have claims. Francis Graffard brings over Ebaiyra as well as his Oaks hope Malavath and should also be thereabouts. The mare I like though is the Sir Michael Stoute trained four year old Ville De Grace who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. Stoute has won this race before and she was last seen when winning the 10F Group 3 Pride Stakes here last October. She only had half a length to spare over Lilac Road who re-opposes here on the same terms and also has claims. The word from Newmarket is that Ville De Grace is ready to go and she’s a strong fancy.

 

VILLE DE GRACE 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.40

Fourteen three year old fillies assemble for this years renewal of the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien saddles a brace in favourite Tenebrism who was last seen winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park over 6F here in September and the big question over her is will she stay? There’s plenty of speed in the pedigree but at around 3/1 I’m happy not to pay to find out. His other runner Tuesday is a very promising horse being a full sister to the very smart Minding (winner of this and the Oaks) and can’t be ruled out although she’ll need to step up dramatically on form. As well as the two Aiden O’Brien runners Ireland is represented by Ger Lyon’s Juncture who doesn’t look good enough and Jessie Harrington’s Discoveries who as a full sister to Alpha Centurai will relish the fast ground. She should be thereabouts although her yard have been a bit hit and miss this season so far. I think the French may take this and am prepared to back both of their runners. Francis Graffard has a good record when he brings horses over here and has won big races with Watch Me and The Revenant in the past. His representative Malavath appears to have all the credentials to run a big race having finished runner up at the Breeders Cup on very fast ground as well as taking the principal French 1000 Guineas trial the Prix Imprudence by 1 1/2L from Andre Fabre’s Zellie. She looks sure to be thereabouts and so can Zellie who was tenderly handled when finishing runner up in the French trial and as a Group 1 winner already (she won the Prix Marcel Boussac last Arc weekend) has the class to run well as long as she handles the fastish surface which she’s yet to encounter. With stamina doubts about the favourite it’s the French pair I’ll be backing with Malavath the number one.

 

MALAVATH 2 points each way @ 7/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

ZELLIE 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

A profit of 5 points on the day with two winners.

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Big prices so I'll add 50p forecasts top 4 

Very well done.  Are you still counting your winnings and have no time for an update ?

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1000 guineas 

Tenebrism   9.0  4/1 

Cachet     8.6   22/1 

Mis en scene   8.4  20/1 

Prosperous voyage   8.2 

Hard to know how tenebrism will cope with the huge step up from 6f to 8f ....she's the most likely winner given o brien record but there looks plenty of value to take her  on .....Cachet proved she can stay 8f last year and was staying on strong over 7f recently ....so looks worth a shot ....the other two have collateral firm with Cachet but mis en scene could have more to give as was a little unlucky so I'll take those 2,ew as value bets 

5pt ew Cachet....and ..mis en scene..... 24x10p tricasts 

 

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Big prices so I'll add 50p forecasts top 4 

 

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Replace  mis en scene with Prosperous voyage for the ew single  due to non runner 

I'm at work hence slowxreply ....I think the total return is 421 .00 .....absolutely over the moon with that rating ...???

[Villa Chris]

Well done Richard 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Well done Richard 

Good to see you back buddy ..

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

 

 

I'm at work hence slowxreply ....I think the total return is 421 .00 .....absolutely over the moon with that rating ...???

Just checked my account....Bet 365 paid out the tricast too !!!!....139.11....can only think they replaced 2nd fav for non runner .......so another tricast and brings the total to 560 .11 ...that's a good days work 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Just checked my account....Bet 365 paid out the tricast too !!!!....139.11....can only think they replaced 2nd fav for non runner .......so another tricast and brings the total to 560 .11 ...that's a good days work 

When NR your tricast now becomes a forcast with stakes divided, a forecast with a NR becomes a win single.

[richard-westwood]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

When NR your tricast now becomes a forcast with stakes divided, a forecast with a NR becomes a win single.

Oh ....so they paid a forecast instead of tricast again ??couldn't understand where the extra came from 

Edited May 1, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Oh ....so they paid a forecast instead of tricast again ??

yes a straight tricast becomes a straight forecast an "always" (in any order) tricast becones a reverse forecast.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

3.17 Sal Katy Kontent 2/1

4.21 Ham Cubana Habana 7/4

5.02 Sal Ring Fenced 15/8

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 48.48 points

Cover Bets:

3.17 Sal Evolicatt 1 pt win at 5/1

4.21 Ham Manaslu 0.5 pts 16/5 and Enkindle 0.5 pts 14/1

5.02 Sal Chairman 1 pt win at 11/4

Other Bets:

4.15 Nm Super Stars 1 pt win at 5.6

4.50 Nm North Lincoln 1 pt win at 9.8

PL inspired bets

3.00 Nm  Dreamloper 1 pt win at 11/2

3.40 Nm Zellie 1 pt 3 TBP at 4.2

 

Total stakes today = 11 Points

RESULTS UPDATE

A double and a couple of winners.  Ring Fenced seemed to regress rather than progress so this cost me my trixie.  Chairman won instead (just).  I have to thank @TheBrigadierfor Dreamloper.  I know it wasn't his selection but he gave it such a glowing report that it convinced me to back it.  I guess we all wish we had copied @richard-westwood's 1,000 guineas selections he made huge profit that dwarfs anyone else's on racing chat today.  A superb ratings achievement.  At least I made 7 points profit t o start off the month which is for me is a refreshing change.   +7.00 MTD + 7 and YTD -222.27