Racing Chat - Friday April 8th

[The Brigadier]

Day two and with rain falling on Thursday it looks like we're looking at ground on the slow side of good to soft. Here's my thoughts on the card.

 

Aintree 1.45

A maximum field of twenty two go to post for this competitive 2m 4F handicap hurdle although this a horse here that stands out on form to me. Pulled out recently at Newbury as the ground dried up Noel Williams’ Speech Bubble makes her handicap hurdle off of a mark which looks very lenient. A useful bumper horse she has shown decent form over hurdles in just three starts with her latest effort when being the only horse to be able to go with the subsequent Cheltenham winner Love Envoi in a grade 2 contest at Sandown eventually going down by 2 1/4L which was no mean feat. 9L back in third was Nina The Terrier who ran so well in defeat at Newbury recently giving the race a very solid look. Off of only 10-8 she looks well worth backing with enhanced places. The likely favourite Langer Dan was brought down early when plotted up for the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham and looks a big threat though is scant value at his current odds of around 3/1.

 

SPEECH BUBBLE  2 points each way @ 8/1 Betfred 1/5^th 12345 

 

Aintree 2.20

Nine go to post for the Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle run over two miles and we have a short priced favourite here in Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon. He was no match for his extra smart stable companion Constitution Hill at Cheltenham where he paid for trying to keep up with the winner weakening to finish a well beaten second. He lost nothing in defeat mind and is the one to beat here today. His stable companion First Street is officially rated on the same mark and should be thereabouts. He also ran at Cheltenham when chasing home State Man in the County Hurdle and this flat bred gelding should enjoy todays track. Willie Mullins saddles an intriguing runner in the shape of El Fabiolo who races in the double green colours of Messrs Souede and Munir. He bolted up on his debut for Mullins in a Tramore maiden hurdle on New Years Day and falls into the could be anything bracket. Mullins was heaping praise on him afterwards. At the prices I feel it may pay to back First Street each way with the form book suggesting there’s little between the Henderson pair.

 

FIRST STREET 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5^th 123

 

Aintree 2.55

A small but select field of four assemble for the Betway Mildmay novices’ chase run over 3m 210 yards of the Mildmay course. L’Homme Presse is chasing a perfect six timer over fences and comes here on the back of a fluid victory in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham where he beat one of today’s rivals Ahoy Senor by 3 1/2L. Ahoy Senor made several jumping errors that day and I expect him to get closer today at a track where he made all to beat Bravemansgame at a year ago over hurdles. Official ratings have L’Homme Presse the same horse as Paul Nicholls’ Bravemansgame who has been the most exciting novice chaser I’ve seen this season. He was pulled out of the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham on the morning of the race when the ground turned heavy and comes here a fresher horse than the two that ran that day. He’s an excellent leaper who I believe can out jump his rivals today. Fury Road makes up the quartet and although no mug may have to take fourth spot.

 

BRAVEMANSGAME 2 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Aintree 3.30

A good sized field of ten have declared for this years renewal of the 2m 4F Marsh Chase more commonly known as The Melling Chase. Last year’s facile winner Fakir D’Oudairies is back to defend his crown and will be hard to beat. He ran out a comfortable 11 length winner last year and looked good when winning the Ascot Chase in February. Only a pound behind on official ratings are Funambule Sivola, runner up in the Queen Mother Chase won by Energumene at Cheltenham but he has yet to prove he stays as far as todays trip and Allmankind who has lost his way somewhat since winning the Old Roan over course and distance here in October. Sceau Royal is only a further pound behind on official ratings but he too has to prove he stays this trip which is also the case for the similarly rated Irish challenger Captain Guinness. Saint Calvados and Mister Fisher were both way behind Fakir D’Oudairies at Ascot and it requires a big leap of faith to fancy today. Everything points to the Joseph O’Brien trained favourite who will be hard to beat and he’s the selection.

 

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES 3 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor

 

Aintree 4.05

A maximum field of thirty turn up for the Topham Handicap Chase run over 2m 5F 19 yards of the Grand National course and with bookmakers going 10/1 the field it’s a wide open affair as one would imagine. My short list comprises of the Nicky Henderson duo Mister Coffey who ran well when runner up in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham though is 4lb higher now. Fantastic Lady who although only seven and relatively lightly raced jumps well and can be thereabouts with Sean Bowen on board. Top weight Royal Rendevouz has to be taken seriously with Willie Mullins having won this contest for the last two years and has a touch of class about him. Horses that have run well over these fences in the past include Senior Citizen (3rd last year), Mac Tottie (won Grand Sefton last November) and the bottom horse Pink Eyed Pedro who was runner up last year and is 2lb lower now. The last named makes some appeal at a big price each way but the main selections are Fantastic Lady and Royal Rendevous in what will be a terrific spectacle.

 

FANTASTIC LADY 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234567

ROYAL RENDEVOUZ 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234567

PINK EYED PEDRO 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234567

 

Aintree 4.40

Fourteen go to post for the 3m 1/2F grade one Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. Current favourite is the Joseph O’Brien trained Banbridge who was last seen winning the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. He like many here is stepping up half a mile and although he should stay until they’ve done it we can’t be sure. Second in, and my fancy is the Sam Thomas trained Skytastic. Another one who has to prove his stamina having yet to race beyond 2m 3 1/2F he has always been held in very high regard by his shrewd trainer who actually stated at the start of the season that he was the best horse in the yard. He’s unbeaten in two bumpers and two novice hurdles with Thomas telling the press after his latest victory at Ascot in February that he was never going to win far as he’s so laid back which must be a good sign that he’ll see out this longer trip. Thomas also said that he’s a big galloper who would be suited by Aintree and he’s the bet here. Paul Nicholls’ Gelino Bello is another player coming here after an emphatic success at Newbury when long odds on. He has already proven form at three miles so stamina is not an issue for him. Archie Watson, better known for his flat exploits saddles Stag Horn, a real stayer on the flat who won a couple of novice hurdles prior to a disappointing effort at Cheltenham. Todays flatter track may suit better and he’s not out of this but I have to stick with Skytastic who’s impressed me so much this season.

 

SKYTASTIC 2 points each way @ 6/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Aintree 5.15

Olly Murphy would have won this two mile conditional jockeys and amateur riders handicap hurdle last year but for Copperless crashing out two from home with the race at his mercy and can gain compensation a year on with his lightly raced Fergus Gregory ridden six year old who has looked a horse ahead of his mark on his last two starts at Warwick in handicap company when making a race ending mistake two from home (form worked out well) and when landing the odds at Southwell in a novice hurdle. This race was touted by Murphy when interviewed after that race and he looks a solid each way bet here. The Dr Newland trained Whizz Kid makes his handicap debut following two maiden/novice hurdle victories at Catterick and Ludlow and may have got in lightly. He looks a big danger and is worth a saver bet.

 

WASHINGTON 2 points each way @ 6/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

WHIZZ KID 1 point each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5^th 12345

 

[richard-westwood]

405 aint

Killer clown   9.0  20/1 

Senior citizen  8.7  12/1

Royal rendezvous   8.5  14/1 

 

5pt ew all 3 

[Nigwilliam]

Ain't 405

Notebook 18/1.       UR

Sizing Pottsie 20/1.    18th

Annamix 28/1.   3rd

skybet. 8 places.

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Nigwilliam
Result

[azzybear]

cobblers dream 1.45

[kensland]

Aintree. 

Double. 

4.40.Skytastic.    11/2

5.15.Whizz Kid.        4/1 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

[black rabbit]

balco costal   1 45 ain     1/4 pt win    16/1 

just the man  5 15 ain  1/5 pt ew  38/1  

foxy jacks  4 05 ain  1/5 pt ew 38/1 

bold endevor  4 40 ain  1/5 pt ew 16/1

washington  5 15 ain  1/4 pt win   8/1

severance  515 ain  1/4 pt win 9/1  

 

 

 

P/L   + 124.5 pts

 

my brother{ the white rabbit bets at aintree]  are

tronador 1 45  ew  25/1 

mister fisher 3 30 ew  18/1

royal rendezvous  4 05  ew 16/1  

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by black rabbit
selectionss

[fd1972uk]

Just sticking to aintree (barring 1 treble bet). 

Double - bravemansgame (255) and fakir d'o (330) — also done a treble which includes goa lil (font 130)

145 - cobblers dream & speech bubble

220 - jonbon

405 - mister coffey & mactottie

440 - skytastic

515 - ew washington

 

All above bets are freebies with exception of jonbon (did stupidly use a free bet by mistake) and washington (free bet qualifiier). 

Good luck all. 

 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 8.30

CATBIRD SEAT 6/4

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV Offer selections

AINT	2.20	First Street	4/1
AINT	3.30	Hitman	10/1
AINT	4.40	Crystal Glory	7/1

[fuzzy64]

Sedgefield

4.00 

Cool Country 5/2

Leeswood Lilly 7/1

4.35

Dequall

5.08

Going Mobile 7/1

To The Limit 12/1

5.42

Killane 11/4

Hey Bob 8/1

[fuzzy64]

Fontwell 

2.00

Karkoum 4/1

Zuba 25/1 e/w

 

3.10

Age of Wisdom 13/2

Light On the Wing 4/1

 

3.45

Legal OK

 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by fuzzy64

[kensland]

Aintree. 

1.45..Peking Rose.   12/1      /.      Fils D'oudairies. 8/1.   bth ew. 

Good luck all. 

[calva decoy]

Just noticed that they're running the Virtual National on ITV 4 at 9.15 tonight , always a fun watch ?

 

[The Equaliser]

Late to the plate today

1.45 Aint Langer Dan 1 pt win at 5.6

Back later

I missed out on the earlier winning favourites for a Trixie so I'll just risk 2 points on the 4.05 at Aintree

Mister Coffey 1 pt win at 7.4 ( @MCLARKE's selection) Royal Rendezvous 0.5 pts win at 10/1 ( @richard-westwood's selection) and Mac Tottie 0.5 pts win (strong market support).  Can't lose can I? ?

Edited April 8, 2022 by The Equaliser
Update

[MCLARKE]

Aintree trend analysis

1.45

Not in 1st 6 in betting, 1 from 99

Weight higher than 10st 9 lbs, 3 from 107

This leaves SPEECH BUBBLE at 8/1, 5 places

2.20

Forecast odds < 25/1, 0 from 12

Last ran more than 24 days ago, 1 from 45

1st or 2nd favourite, 2 from 16.

This leaves SURPRISE PACKAGE at 14/1

2.55

Odds > 3/1, 1 from 39

Last ran more than 29 days ago, 0 from 14

This leaves L'HOMME PRESSE at 13/8

3.30

Odds > 12/1, 0 from 16

Odds < 11/4, 0 from 5

Finished 1st last time 0 from 8

Age = 8, 3 from 8, AE 1.33

This leaves MISTER FISHER at 12/1

4.05

Odds > 9/1, 3 from 186

This leaves MISTER COFFEY at 6/1

4.40

Bred in France, 0 from 15

Favourite 3 from 7, AE 1.77

This leaves BANBRIDGE at 3/1

5.15

Odds > 25/1,0 from 11

Top 3 in betting, 0 from 23

Finished in top 3 last time, 3 from 71

This leaves 4, GIPSY DE CHOISEL, RICHMOND LAKE, FAIVOIR and MARINE ONE

Top weight, 2 from 7, AE 5.33

This leaves FAIVOIR at 14/1, 5 places

[Zilzalian]

Just curious about the venitia williams horses 3 yesterday ran like drains so i would be worried about l'homme presse, ahoy senor murdered bravemansgame but is 5 times the price.

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Just curious about the venitia williams horses 3 yesterday ran like drains so i would be worried about l'homme presse, ahoy senor murdered bravemansgame but is 5 times the price.

Good point; I'll have 1 pt win on Ahoy Senor at 7.0.  It was Aintree when it beat Bravemansgame so why won't it do it again.   

 

[The Equaliser]

15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Just curious about the venitia williams horses 3 yesterday ran like drains so i would be worried about l'homme presse, ahoy senor murdered bravemansgame but is 5 times the price.

Thanks for that, I hope that you had a little bit on as well

[fuzzy64]

7.00

Kempton 

Hurricane Helen 12/1

Point Louise 22/1

 

7.30

Porfin 7/1

Glamorous force 15/2

 

Atomise 11/2

Cashew 18/1

 

8.30 

Magellan

Edited April 8, 2022 by fuzzy64

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Just curious about the venitia williams horses 3 yesterday ran like drains so i would be worried about l'homme presse, ahoy senor murdered bravemansgame but is 5 times the price.

Called that one right. Be in no doubt Ahoy Senor is a very good horse forget this race if you look at what he did at Cheltenham after mistake after mistake to still get 3rd is the clue.

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Thanks for that, I hope that you had a little bit on as well

6/1 was the bet of the day for me so got my wheel barrow out.

[fd1972uk]

Jonbon done me a turn, still annoyed not unclicking the free bet on jonbon by mistake, as its a waste of a bet for very minimal profit. 

[fd1972uk]

Mactottie wins for a decent profit too and Washington places, although free bet was poor choice so a very small loss, so all in all another decent day. 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Late to the plate today

1.45 Aint Langer Dan 1 pt win at 5.6

Back later

I missed out on the earlier winning favourites for a Trixie so I'll just risk 2 points on the 4.05 at Aintree

Mister Coffey 1 pt win at 7.4 ( @MCLARKE's selection) Royal Rendezvous 0.5 pts win at 10/1 ( @richard-westwood's selection) and Mac Tottie 0.5 pts win (strong market support).  Can't lose can I? ?

RESULTS UPDATE

Two winning bets; I won't count Ahoy Senor as it wasn't my selection.  A small profit of £7.01.  MTD -3816 & YTD -193.97

It's the Grand National tomorrow.  Not sure what I will put a small wager on.  It won't be Minella Times though.  Up 15lbs and been running disappointingly.  The crowds may be sentimental about the horse and Rachael Blackmore but not me.  I think I would rather back Emitom each way in the 1.45  

[fuzzy64]

Not too good today: 12 bets 11 losers, 1 winner 10/1. 12 points bets  -1 point for the day.