Racing Chat - Tuesday 15th March (Cheltenham Day 1)

[richard-westwood]

Just finished rating the big hcap Tues as I'm working the weekend 

Fantastikas  9.0 12.5 

Corach rambler 8.8  14.5 

Full back   8.5 16.0 

Rapper 7 8 

Flouer      7.8  

Top 3 are looking particularly strong and also fit all the trends I have too so doubly so ....decent prices currently on betfair ....so let's have a shot at a big win day 1 .......10pts win each top 3 

[Budgie 65]

The was 41 runners in that race I blanked it till tonight on first glance I have Edwards tone winning the 240 but will look at that race tonight and storming Ireland in the 410 and trhreeunderftruhwhat in the gr2  510

48 hr Dec's tonight can't wait

[Villa Chris]

I’m halfway through The Ultima . Will finish it tonight and bet top 3 

[Villa Chris]

With the good ground likely looks like Frodon will run in this . Can see him running a big race but up against it with the weights . Proved he’s capable in past running in handicap  off big weight .

[Villa Chris]

My top 3 selections for Ultima 

Frodon 

Not much to say really. Best horse in the race and capable of carrying top weight to win this. Ground, trip, course ideal . Big weights have won this before and I just feel if he gets in a rhythm he’ll be hard to peg back and keeps finding when needs to. Would it really surprise anyone if he won this? I don’t think so. Currently 14/1. Ground must stay on the good side or he will be pulled out of race . 
 

Lostintranslation 

Not the force of old but this could be a clever bit of placing by Colin Tizzard. Runs off 11/3 which isn’t too bad. Ground and course ideal. Not sure 3m+ suits him in the top graded races anymore but this shouldn’t be too frantic and he should be able to settle better against lesser horses. Comes with risks but 20/1 is worth a punt . Ground needs to stay on the good side. 
 

Does He Know 

This horse ticks all the boxes and is unexposed. Looks the perfect horse for this race and has brilliant course form . Currently favourite at 7/1 . 

Three others I’ve noted are 

Vintage Clouds 

Gericault Roque 

Full Back 

At the minute I’ll play the top 3 but could change if ground goes on softer side 

[Villa Chris]

Supreme Dysart Dynamo/ Jonbon 

Arkle Blue Lord /Gabynako

Ultima Frodon/LIT/ Does He Know 

Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle/ Appreciate It W/O Honeysuckle 

Mares Hurdle Telmesomethinggirl/Stormy Island 

National Hunt Run Wild Fred /Stattler 

 

still got the juvenile handicap hurdle to do which I’ll do later but this is kind of where I’m at regarding the other races. Not saying I’m betting both in all races but these are my idea of the winners in my head . Gabynako has been supplemented for this by Gavin Cromwell on the basis of he thinks it’s his best chance of the horse winning one of the novice chases . I think his form is pretty solid and I like his price . Not overly excited by Blue Lord but he’s conventional and ticks the boxes. Edward stone is good but I’ll take him on with the Irish . 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

Supreme novices.....very disappointing turnout I must say ....

Dysart dynamo ...9.6 

Constitution hill   9.0 

Not much between these 2 on ratings and I think there's a good chance they will fight it out .....Dysart is an unknown quantity but the way he demolished a grade 2 by 19 lengths on the bit suggests he has some engine .....I normally only back horses in supreme over 150 ....constitution is 148 ....Dysart 152 ....so that and trained by mullins .....irish win supreme again ?.

Dysart dynamo  20pt win 

[richard-westwood]

Arkle chase 

Edwardstone   9.8 

Blue lord    9.6 

Riveier detil  9.3 

Any one of these woukd be a realistic winner of an arkle .....so this is an epic race .....overall bookies think riviere will turn form around with blue lord but blue lord is 2lb better off and mares have a poor record against the males ..... edwardstones speed ratings read well and he won with relative ease whereas the other 2 were flat out .....I think blue lord and edwardstone can fight this out 

Edwardstone   bluelord 10pt win each 3.9 and 5.5 

[Villa Chris]

Plus the mare is only 5, although she’s a tough battle hardened horse for her age. She would have beaten blue Lord lto if not for that bad mistake at the last . I just fancy Blue Lord to be fresher for this race and ticks more boxes . Edward stone has areal genuine chance and I wouldn’t say he’s hyped up like some of the British horses that get found out at Cheltenham . 

[richard-westwood]

On 3/12/2022 at 6:58 AM, richard-westwood said:

Just finished rating the big hcap Tues as I'm working the weekend 

Fantastikas  9.0 12.5 

Corach rambler 8.8  14.5 

Full back   8.5 16.0 

Rapper 7 8 

Flouer      7.8  

Top 3 are looking particularly strong and also fit all the trends I have too so doubly so ....decent prices currently on betfair ....so let's have a shot at a big win day 1 .......10pts win each top 3 

Just going to add noble Yates because novices do well in this and he was only beaten by ahoy senor and that's no shame with potentially more to come ...13.5 is just too big 10pts win 

[Villa Chris]

The Fred Winter juvenile hurdle is a nightmare . The main two I fancy looking at it are Gaelic Warrior 5/2 and Prarie Dancer 25/1 

[The Brigadier]

Well here we go! The first day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival with todays racing on the old course where the ground is likely to ride on the slow side with the official going being called good to soft. Here are my daily thoughts on the day -

 

Cheltenham 1.30

The tapes go up as the Cheltenham roar heralds the arrival of the 2022 Festival with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted just the 9 runners. Nicky Henderson fires two shots with Jonbon and Constitution Hill who both have unbeaten rules records to maintain. Preference has to be for the latter who has looked so good in winning at Sandown and looks the one to be with today under stable jockey Nico De Boinville. Jonbon is a fizzy type who could quite easily find the whole excitement of the day too much for him unlike his stable companion who is as cool as they come. The big danger comes not surprisingly from the Willie Mullins camp in the shape of Dysart Dynamo who is also unbeaten and has looked very good in two bumpers and two novice hurdles making all on both occasions. He too can be a bit keen and that may just count against him here. Mullins also saddles Kilcruit and Bring On The Night with the latter an interesting runner at a big price who may outrun his odds.

 

CONSTITUTION HILL 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 2.10

Eleven assemble for the Arkle Chase run over the minimum trip of two miles and has quite an open look about it this year. Edwardstone is the current favourite and should run well with the Irish runners looking to turn him over. Blue Lord (Mullins) and Rivière D’etel (Elliott) met each other at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February where the former came out on top to the tune of half a length but it may have been a different story had Rivière D’etel not clouted the last. He’ll be 2lb worse off but is my fancy to turn the form around. Saint Sam looks held on that form with Mullin’s second string here Haut En Couleurs crashing out earlier in the same contest.

 

RIVIÈRE D’ETAL 2 points win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.50

A wide open renewal of the 3m 1F Ultima Handicap Chase with a maximum field of 24 going to post and the bookmakers currently 7/1 the field. My short list comprises of Irish raider Noble Yeats who bumped into the smart Ahoy Senor at Wetherby last time, top weight Frodon who is five wins from ten runs here and though flopping in Ireland last time that came at a time when the Paul Nicholls team were not really firing and has dropped to a mark that he’s won off of before. You’ll certainly get a run for your money from the front with Bryony Frost riding that’s for sure. Gericault Roque is the third horse in my short list despite being 5lb out of the weights. He’s only a six year old but has already shown plenty of ability and can outrun his odds for trainer David Pipe and jockey Tim Scudamore. In a very competitive handicap I’ll chance a small each way wager on Frodon.

 

FRODON 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234567 Betfred

GERICAULT ROQUE 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Only ten go to post for the Champion Hurdle which sees one of the warmest favourites of the week in the Henry De Bromhead trained wonder mare Honeysuckle. She’s unbeaten in all 15 starts including 10 grade ones having won at the last two Festivals in the mares novice hurdle and last years Champion Hurdle. Her 6 1/2L victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle didn’t impress everyone last time but it’s very hard to see her beaten by all bar second favourite Appreciate It. He’s not been seen since bolting up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on this day last year and although we know Willie Mullins can get them ready to win after such an absence (remember Quevega) it will be some effort to turn over the Queen of the National Hunt Honeysuckle. Teahupoo is the one who comes here improving still and can run a nice race but surely this is all about Honeysuckle and she’s unopposable to me.

 

Cheltenham 4.10

Another smallish field of just twelve take to the stage here for the 2m 4F mares hurdle. This is a race that Willie Mullins has had a monopoly on since it’s inception 14 years ago winning the contest 9 times (6 with Quevega). He sends three to this years contest and although stable number one Paul Townend appears to have chosen Stormy Ireland it’s the Paddy Mullins ridden Echoes In Rain that I like. She’s actually the highest rated of the dozen mares and ran as well as could be expected last time in the Irish Champion Hurdle when finishing a credible third beaten 7L by Honeysuckle (Heaven Help Us held back in 5th). A reproduction of that effort should see her on the premises and she represents decent each way value (especially with those firms paying out on an extra place). Last season’s mares novice hurdle winner Telmesomethinggirl is back to try and add this race to her portfolio and has obvious claims whilst Mullins’ Burning Victory and Elliott’s Queen’s Brook also have chances. This looks certain to go to Ireland with the value play Echoes In Rain.

 

ECHOES IN RAIN 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 4.50

A maximum field of 22 here for the Boodles juvenile handicap hurdle with the favourite of Willie Mullins’ Gaelic Warrior potential a blot on the handicap off of only 129. He’s having his first start for Mullins having been placed in a couple of races that have worked out very well in France and could easily blitz these but at around 5/2 he’s got be taken on. There’s plenty of horses that could be well in here and I’ll take a chance on the Dan Skelton trained Too Friendly owned by The Gredley Family. He’s not been seen since mid December although Skelton did say at last week’s Cheltenham preview at Warwick racecourse that he had worked very well at that track recently. His most recent fourth has worked out a treat with the three that beat him that day Knight Legend (now rated 140), Porticello (140) and Impulsive One (130) all winning since so a mark here of 125 could be lenient and with a wind operation also since in his favour. He’s a strong traveller who’s likely to be up amongst the front runners and with the bookmakers paying extra places it’s well worth a each way wager at a nice price. HMS Seahorse trained by Paul Nolan In Ireland who won the first ever running of this race is also worth adding to the staking system for the race. He ran rival The Tide Turns to 2 3/4L at Punchestown in January and is 9lb better off although is twice the price. He’s broke his maiden since at Fairyhouse and can run well each way.

 

TOO FRIENDLY 1 point each way @ 20/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

HMS SEAHORSE 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 5.30

A disappointing turn out for the days finale with only 7 going to post for the 3m 5F NH Chase although it’s still a quality affair. The winner is likely to come from the two market leaders in Gordon Elliott’s Run Wild Fred and Willie Mullins’s Stattler. There is a tentative form line through third favourite Vanillier which suggests that there is very little between the two principals but my preference is just for Run Wild Fred as he is proven at the trip (runner up in last years Irish Grand National) whilst his rival as yet to race beyond 3m 2F (although he does shape as though a stamina test is what he needs). Jamie Codd rides the selection which is obviously an added bonus. Vanillier has a bit to find with the fro to two although did come good in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival last year so couldn’t be ruled out. Braeside is a strong stayer (won the Cork National) who could be the best outsider here as Elliott’s second string.

 

RUN WILD FRED 3 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

[calva decoy]

Biggest jumps festival of the year & Brian Hughes , Ryan Mania , Adam Wedge & James Bowen are plying their trade at Sedgefield tomorrow ?

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Biggest jumps festival of the year & Brian Hughes , Ryan Mania , Adam Wedge & James Bowen are plying their trade at Sedgefield tomorrow ?

Its a very good point/observation, you would think Owners/trainers would be wanting the best possible jockey available for their horse. Hughes this year is worth 3-5lbs compared to many/most being used at Cheltenham. Beggars belief.

[Zilzalian]

On 3/12/2022 at 9:09 AM, Villa Chris said:

With the good ground likely looks like Frodon will run in this . Can see him running a big race but up against it with the weights . Proved he’s capable in past running in handicap  off big weight .

Well if Frodon wins there will be a lot of "why didnt i back it" thoughts. Interestingly i remember watching an interview with John Francome who described Frodon (just before it won the King George) as the best jumper he has seen. think about that for a minute..............this is a handicap ffs

[Villa Chris]

48 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well if Frodon wins there will be a lot of "why didnt i back it" thoughts. Interestingly i remember watching an interview with John Francome who described Frodon (just before it won the King George) as the best jumper he has seen. think about that for a minute..............this is a handicap ffs

I’ve said that more than once regarding frodon . I know he’s carrying top weight but in a weird way he’s also well in. Big ask but if anyone can do it he can . 

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Its a very good point/observation, you would think Owners/trainers would be wanting the best possible jockey available for their horse. Hughes this year is worth 3-5lbs compared to many/most being used at Cheltenham. Beggars belief.

I wonder if Cheltenham based trainer Fergal O'Brien will send any up to Sedgefield ?

Quality trainers & jockeys at the smaller meetings are an angle I always look at when Cheltenham is on , same as any of the big flat meetings .

[black rabbit]

Champion Green   4 50 Ch     1/4 pt win    18/1  

 

 

 

 

P/L    + 122.75  pts

Edited March 15, 2022 by black rabbit
totals

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50)

Forecast odds rank greater than 6, 1 from 118. This reduces the field to 6, DOES HE KNOW, FLOUEUR, NOBLE YEATS, FANTASTIKAS, DEATH DUTY and CORACH RAMBLER.

Not in the top 12 in the weights, 1 from 78. This removes CORACH RAMBLER.

Not bred in Ireland, 1 from 66. This leaves 2, NOBLE YEATS (16/1) and DEATH DUTY (11/1), 6 places.

[yossa6133]

They've paid £8k to supplement Gabynako in the Arkle so you'd think he has some sort of chance (E/W 1/2/3/4 20/1 Coral). Mostly a slick jumper who has form with the likes of Fury Road, probably would have beaten Beacon Edge at Fairyhouse but for nodding at the last 2 and I can forgive the last run on heavy. Drops in trip but has plenty of pace and stamina will help up the hill.

 

Thought he was going to win all the way round! Dream run and barely touched a twig but Edwardstone just too good.

Edited March 15, 2022 by yossa6133

[kensland]

For the Ultima Handicap. Grade 3 ( GBB race) going with.... 

2.50.Death Duty      10/1

Good luck all. 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.30 - 0.5pts e/w Shallwehaveonemore @ 66/1

Just can't back any of the favourites with confidence as hard to weigh up the British vs Irish form. Instead, having a tentative e/w poke on an outsider but not a no hoper in my eyes. Ran behind Constitution Hill at Sandown but this one's best form has come on a sounder surface and can't fault its form under these sort of conditions. Ideally should have won last time but there were some mitigating factors and just looks a shade big for all he has plenty to do on most grounds. 

2.10 - 1pt e/w Gabynako @ 18/1

Looks plenty of pace on here and I think it could be a frantic race. Jumping and stamina will be put to the test and I think Gabynako is overpriced. Don't think the drop back in trip is a major problem and has been competing with top class horses in the main over 2m4f. Looks overpriced to me. 

2.50 - 1pt e/w Tea Clipper @ 12/1

Really like the prospects of this one - form dropped off a bit but his record fresh is very good and the break/wind surgery can set him up nicely for this. Stays well, on his day can jump well too and is weighted to go very well if putting it all together. 

4.10 - 1pt e/w Indefatigable @ 25/1

Another overpriced runner in my eyes - poor last time out but that was a rare poor run and these conditions are optimum for her. Very solid form when winning at Wetherby earlier in the season (over a trip I think is not even her best) and was 4th in this race last year. Can see her getting into the mix again. 

4.50 - 1pt e/w Britzka @ 20/1

Taking a bit of a punt on this one as he's clearly a bit of a character but when putting it all together has proven he's capable of smart performances. Had three races in quick succession at Christmas and it possibly just took its toll - been given a break since, gets the blinkers on and if travelling better in this bigger field, I can see him coming home well. Equally might throw in the towel early on, but worth a go at the price!

5.30 - 3pts win Stattler @ 5/2

I think his win last time out is the strongest form in the field and looks an out and out stayer so essentially a lot to like against largely inferior rivals here I think.

[Villa Chris]

29 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

They've paid £8k to supplement Gabynako in the Arkle so you'd think he has some sort of chance (E/W 1/2/3/4 20/1 Coral). Mostly a slick jumper who has form with the likes of Fury Road, probably would have beaten Beacon Edge at Fairyhouse but for nodding at the last 2 and I can forgive the last run on heavy. Drops in trip but has plenty of pace and stamina will help up the hill.

Exactly my thinking too . Definitely worth a shot at 20/1 . They have sent him to the Arkle because they feel it’s his best chance of a win .

Edited March 14, 2022 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Newcastle 7.15

MONSIEUR JUMBO 4/1

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (4.50)

Not trained in Ireland, 3 from 122. This reduces the field to 12.

Finished in the 1st 3 last time, 3 from 117. This reduces the field to 3, BRITZKA, FEIGH and DOCTOR BROWN BEAR.

Weight greater than 11st 1lb, 3 from 89. This removes BRITZKA.

Last ran more than 32 days ago, 3 from 101. This leaves FEIGH, available at 66/1 BOG, 6 places.

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the David Nicholson Mares hurdle (4.10)

Ran more than 38 days ago, 1 from 57. This reduces the field to 6.

Age greater than 7, 0 from 35. This reduces the field to 4, BURNING VICTORY, ECHOES IN RAIN, QUEENS BROOK and MARIE'S ROCK.

Outside top 4 in betting, 0 from 60. This removes MARIE'S ROCK.

Age 5 or 6, 2 from 27. This leaves QUEENS BROOK, available at 4/1 BOG, 4 places.

 

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Arkle Novice Chase (2.10)

The last 8 winners all won last time out. This reduces the field to 5.

Favourite 5 from 8, the rest 3 from 61. This leaves EDWARDSTONE at 11/4 BOG, 4 places.

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Champion Hurdle (3.30)

A nice easy one.

Favourite 5 from 8, the rest 3 from 80. This leaves HONEYSUCKLE at 8/13 BOG.

[MCLARKE]

Trends for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (1.30)

Not in the 1st 3 in the betting, 1 from 91. This leaves DYSART DYNAMO, CONSTITUTION HILL and JONBON.

Horses bred in UK, 0 from 25. This leaves DYSART DYNAMO at 5/2 BOG and JONBON at 5/1 BOG. I can't find anything to separate these 2.

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Trends for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (4.50)

Not trained in Ireland, 3 from 122. This reduces the field to 12.

Finished in the 1st 3 last time, 3 from 117. This reduces the field to 3, BRITZKA, FEIGH and DOCTOR BROWN BEAR.

Weight greater than 11st 1lb, 3 from 89. This removes BRITZKA.

Last ran more than 32 days ago, 3 from 101. This leaves FEIGH, available at 66/1 BOG, 6 places.

I backed feigh  yesterday come on Danny boy ?