Lincoln - Doncaster 26th March (not long now!)

[The Brigadier]

It’s nearly five weeks to Cheltenham so now seems as good a time as any to have an in depth look at the flats first big handicap the Lincoln !

To be run on the straight mile at Doncaster on March 26th the handicap weights were released last week.

 

The first way to tackle the event is to narrow the 76 entries down. The most that can run is 22 and the last 9 runnings have seen the lowest rated horse as 96,96,97,97,98,96,93,90 and 90 (latest renewals first). You can see from those ratings that nowadays you’re unlikely to get a run if you’re rated in the early 90’s so let’s start by scrubbing out all the horses rated 93 and lower. That leaves us with 33 to concentrate on which is a much more manageable amount.

 

The weights are headed by William Knight’s smart Sir Busker whom I’m led to believe is been trained for the race. He has plenty of weight mind and is overlooked here.

Charlie Appleby has won the contest twice in the last five renewals and has two entered in Valiant Prince who has already won at Meydan this winter in a one mile turf handicap and Modern News who was unbeaten in three starts last season with his rating rising 15lb. If Appleby decides to run one then expect him to come in for considerable support but there’s no word as yet as to whether he will run one (apparently both are currently in Dubai and would near enough have to come straight off the plane to run here which he did with the gambled on Auxerre in 2019).

Last years race was won by the Gosden’s Haqeeqy with Michael Dodds’ Brunch chasing him home on his seasonal re-appearance. Brunch is 4lb higher now but could run well.

John Gosden saddled last years winner under apprentice Benoit De La Sayette (remember him?) and is represented this time around by Sunray Major who was last seen when flopping on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He’s lightly raced and another interesting runner whom Gosden said last week had just started cantering. If he made it to post he would be a very interesting runner. The Gosden camp also have Al Rufaa entered but he looks high enough in the handicap.

Anmaat is one of two Shadwell horses entered in the contest and is trained by Owen Burrows. He had a productive year last season winning three times and ending up finishing runner up in the Cambridgeshire. He’s 5lb higher than that run but is progressive and is yet another for my long short list!

Clive Cox is represented by Aratus, a winner of four of his five career starts whom has been gelded since we last saw him at Goodwood last August. He would be stepping up to a mile for the first time here were he to run but is again an interesting runner. Cox also has Dance Fever in the race (in the same ownership as top weight Sir Busker) but he looks in the handicappers grip.

Roger Varian has three entered in Father Of Jazz, Tinker Toy and La Tihaty. It’s the latter that looks the most interesting having run up a sequence of four wins on the all weather with his latest victory coming at Kempton last Sunday for which he will carry a 5lb penalty if taking his chance.

Simon and Ed Crisford have a brace of runners in Chance and Saleymm with preference for the latter who has won twice on the all weather last November. He is however up 10lb for his latest success and yet to prove he is as good on the turf as he is on a synthetic surface.

That brings me to the interesting trainer in this race. Step forward Newmarket based William Haggas who has won this competitive handicap a record four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). The latter was his last runner in the race and it is obviously a race he likes to target if he has the right horse for the race. This year he has Boosala (last seen finishing 2nd on the all weather at Newcastle in December), Irish Admiral (flopped in the Cambridgeshire when last seen), Ametist and Mujtaba. It’s the last named that takes my eye here as an unbeaten Shadwell owned Dubawi gelding who looks pretty sure to end up better than a handicapper. He’s won all three of his starts in his short career as a three year old last season starting out at Chepstow in August and following up with victories at Chester the following month and in handicap company at Redcar in October on soft ground.

The last three winners of this race were all lightly raced four year olds hailing from big Newmarket operations having only run 5,4 and 5 times previously proving that if you’re smart enough you can overcome lack of experience.

I do know that he is cantering at Newmarket and that if things go his way in the next month and he pleases his trainer then he could easily take this in. If I knew for sure he was a definite runner I would be suggesting a decent bet here but as the race is some seven weeks away I can only suggest a small win only bet in race that I think we can re-visit much closer to the event besides that we’ve only got the small matter of Cheltenham to get out of the way first!

 

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365/William Hill/Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Boylesports

 

[richard-westwood]

I wouldn't mind a cheeky antepost or 2 ....got a day off Tues ill rate the race best I can and see what it throws up ....I know itsxearly but makes for interesting discussion 

[Zilzalian]

26 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

It’s nearly five weeks to Cheltenham so now seems as good a time as any to have an in depth look at the flats first big handicap the Lincoln !

To be run on the straight mile at Doncaster on March 26th the handicap weights were released last week.

 

The first way to tackle the event is to narrow the 76 entries down. The most that can run is 22 and the last 9 runnings have seen the lowest rated horse as 96,96,97,97,98,96,93,90 and 90 (latest renewals first). You can see from those ratings that nowadays you’re unlikely to get a run if you’re rated in the early 90’s so let’s start by scrubbing out all the horses rated 93 and lower. That leaves us with 33 to concentrate on which is a much more manageable amount.

 

The weights are headed by William Knight’s smart Sir Busker whom I’m led to believe is been trained for the race. He has plenty of weight mind and is overlooked here.

Charlie Appleby has won the contest twice in the last five renewals and has two entered in Valiant Prince who has already won at Meydan this winter in a one mile turf handicap and Modern News who was unbeaten in three starts last season with his rating rising 15lb. If Appleby decides to run one then expect him to come in for considerable support but there’s no word as yet as to whether he will run one (apparently both are currently in Dubai and would near enough have to come straight off the plane to run here which he did with the gambled on Auxerre in 2019).

Last years race was won by the Gosden’s Haqeeqy with Michael Dodds’ Brunch chasing him home on his seasonal re-appearance. Brunch is 4lb higher now but could run well.

John Gosden saddled last years winner under apprentice Benoit De La Sayette (remember him?) and is represented this time around by Sunray Major who was last seen when flopping on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He’s lightly raced and another interesting runner whom Gosden said last week had just started cantering. If he made it to post he would be a very interesting runner. The Gosden camp also have Al Rufaa entered but he looks high enough in the handicap.

Anmaat is one of two Shadwell horses entered in the contest and is trained by Owen Burrows. He had a productive year last season winning three times and ending up finishing runner up in the Cambridgeshire. He’s 5lb higher than that run but is progressive and is yet another for my long short list!

Clive Cox is represented by Aratus, a winner of four of his five career starts whom has been gelded since we last saw him at Goodwood last August. He would be stepping up to a mile for the first time here were he to run but is again an interesting runner. Cox also has Dance Fever in the race (in the same ownership as top weight Sir Busker) but he looks in the handicappers grip.

Roger Varian has three entered in Father Of Jazz, Tinker Toy and La Tihaty. It’s the latter that looks the most interesting having run up a sequence of four wins on the all weather with his latest victory coming at Kempton last Sunday for which he will carry a 5lb penalty if taking his chance.

Simon and Ed Crisford have a brace of runners in Chance and Saleymm with preference for the latter who has won twice on the all weather last November. He is however up 10lb for his latest success and yet to prove he is as good on the turf as he is on a synthetic surface.

That brings me to the interesting trainer in this race. Step forward Newmarket based William Haggas who has won this competitive handicap a record four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). The latter was his last runner in the race and it is obviously a race he likes to target if he has the right horse for the race. This year he has Boosala (last seen finishing 2nd on the all weather at Newcastle in December), Irish Admiral (flopped in the Cambridgeshire when last seen), Ametist and Mujtaba. It’s the last named that takes my eye here as an unbeaten Shadwell owned Dubawi gelding who looks pretty sure to end up better than a handicapper. He’s won all three of his starts in his short career as a three year old last season starting out at Chepstow in August and following up with victories at Chester the following month and in handicap company at Redcar in October on soft ground.

The last three winners of this race were all lightly raced four year olds hailing from big Newmarket operations having only run 5,4 and 5 times previously proving that if you’re smart enough you can overcome lack of experience.

I do know that he is cantering at Newmarket and that if things go his way in the next month and he pleases his trainer then he could easily take this in. If I knew for sure he was a definite runner I would be suggesting a decent bet here but as the race is some seven weeks away I can only suggest a small win only bet in race that I think we can re-visit much closer to the event besides that we’ve only got the small matter of Cheltenham to get out of the way first!

 

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365/William Hill/Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Boylesports

 

If the ground comes up soft I'm liking Boosala myself, 18/1 (generally 14's) PP seems fair, that all weather run in December was interesting only in respect that he got another run into it. Its previous win was 7f at Doncaster which i really like the look of but for me the plus clues are in its 2yo races where he produced a pretty impressive speed figure on soft, ground. (7F)

[richard-westwood]

Obviously I'm limited on info so these are only skeleton ratings ......

Modern news  7.5 

Anmaat    7 5 

Marie's diamond 7 5 

Aratus   7.5 

Mujitaba  7.4 

Salym   7 4 

Review   7 3 

La tihaty  7.3 

Chance 7.1

Boosala  6.8 

Brunch 6 5 

Valiant prince 6.0 

Emporio    6.0 

As you'd expect at this stage very close but I'll have a closer look at it when I can see if can weed some out 

 

[richard-westwood]

21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Obviously I'm limited on info so these are only skeleton ratings ......

Modern news  7.5 

Anmaat    7 5 

Marie's diamond 7 5 

Aratus   7.5 

Mujitaba  7.4 

Salym   7 4 

Review   7 3 

La tihaty  7.3 

Chance 7.1

Boosala  6.8 

Brunch 6 5 

Valiant prince 6.0 

Emporio    6.0 

As you'd expect at this stage very close but I'll have a closer look at it when I can see if can weed some out 

 

I'd lose Marie's diamond ....brunch ...and emporio ....on class ......

High weights 9st5 + have poor records so modern news and boosala would be negative for me 

 

Anmaat

Aratus 

Mujitaba 

Salem 

Revich

La tijaty 

Chance 

Valiant prince 

Off this list the 2 that stand out for me are anmaat and Revich who were both looking classy horses and improving fast last season ....but could be ground dependant ....but currently 12/1 and 50/1!!!!    That's gotta be worth a bit of antepost 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by richard-westwood

[The Brigadier]

On 2/6/2022 at 9:35 PM, The Brigadier said:

It’s nearly five weeks to Cheltenham so now seems as good a time as any to have an in depth look at the flats first big handicap the Lincoln !

To be run on the straight mile at Doncaster on March 26th the handicap weights were released last week.

 

The first way to tackle the event is to narrow the 76 entries down. The most that can run is 22 and the last 9 runnings have seen the lowest rated horse as 96,96,97,97,98,96,93,90 and 90 (latest renewals first). You can see from those ratings that nowadays you’re unlikely to get a run if you’re rated in the early 90’s so let’s start by scrubbing out all the horses rated 93 and lower. That leaves us with 33 to concentrate on which is a much more manageable amount.

 

The weights are headed by William Knight’s smart Sir Busker whom I’m led to believe is been trained for the race. He has plenty of weight mind and is overlooked here.

Charlie Appleby has won the contest twice in the last five renewals and has two entered in Valiant Prince who has already won at Meydan this winter in a one mile turf handicap and Modern News who was unbeaten in three starts last season with his rating rising 15lb. If Appleby decides to run one then expect him to come in for considerable support but there’s no word as yet as to whether he will run one (apparently both are currently in Dubai and would near enough have to come straight off the plane to run here which he did with the gambled on Auxerre in 2019).

Last years race was won by the Gosden’s Haqeeqy with Michael Dodds’ Brunch chasing him home on his seasonal re-appearance. Brunch is 4lb higher now but could run well.

John Gosden saddled last years winner under apprentice Benoit De La Sayette (remember him?) and is represented this time around by Sunray Major who was last seen when flopping on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He’s lightly raced and another interesting runner whom Gosden said last week had just started cantering. If he made it to post he would be a very interesting runner. The Gosden camp also have Al Rufaa entered but he looks high enough in the handicap.

Anmaat is one of two Shadwell horses entered in the contest and is trained by Owen Burrows. He had a productive year last season winning three times and ending up finishing runner up in the Cambridgeshire. He’s 5lb higher than that run but is progressive and is yet another for my long short list!

Clive Cox is represented by Aratus, a winner of four of his five career starts whom has been gelded since we last saw him at Goodwood last August. He would be stepping up to a mile for the first time here were he to run but is again an interesting runner. Cox also has Dance Fever in the race (in the same ownership as top weight Sir Busker) but he looks in the handicappers grip.

Roger Varian has three entered in Father Of Jazz, Tinker Toy and La Tihaty. It’s the latter that looks the most interesting having run up a sequence of four wins on the all weather with his latest victory coming at Kempton last Sunday for which he will carry a 5lb penalty if taking his chance.

Simon and Ed Crisford have a brace of runners in Chance and Saleymm with preference for the latter who has won twice on the all weather last November. He is however up 10lb for his latest success and yet to prove he is as good on the turf as he is on a synthetic surface.

That brings me to the interesting trainer in this race. Step forward Newmarket based William Haggas who has won this competitive handicap a record four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). The latter was his last runner in the race and it is obviously a race he likes to target if he has the right horse for the race. This year he has Boosala (last seen finishing 2nd on the all weather at Newcastle in December), Irish Admiral (flopped in the Cambridgeshire when last seen), Ametist and Mujtaba. It’s the last named that takes my eye here as an unbeaten Shadwell owned Dubawi gelding who looks pretty sure to end up better than a handicapper. He’s won all three of his starts in his short career as a three year old last season starting out at Chepstow in August and following up with victories at Chester the following month and in handicap company at Redcar in October on soft ground.

The last three winners of this race were all lightly raced four year olds hailing from big Newmarket operations having only run 5,4 and 5 times previously proving that if you’re smart enough you can overcome lack of experience.

I do know that he is cantering at Newmarket and that if things go his way in the next month and he pleases his trainer then he could easily take this in. If I knew for sure he was a definite runner I would be suggesting a decent bet here but as the race is some seven weeks away I can only suggest a small win only bet in race that I think we can re-visit much closer to the event besides that we’ve only got the small matter of Cheltenham to get out of the way first!

 

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365/William Hill/Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Boylesports

 

Modern News runs in a 7F listed contest tomorrow at Meydan and I am led to believe that he will take in the Lincoln all being well after this with promising 7lb claiming apprentice Harry Davies provisionally booked. He wouldn't need to win tomorrow, in fact a running on placed effort would be ideal as he would then pick up no penalty for the Lincoln. 

I think its worth backing him now win only.

MODERN NEWS 1 point win @ 8/1 William Hill/Betfred/Unibet

[black rabbit]

On 2/7/2022 at 7:16 AM, richard-westwood said:

I'd lose Marie's diamond ....brunch ...and emporio ....on class ......

High weights 9st5 + have poor records so modern news and boosala would be negative for me 

 

Anmaat

Aratus 

Mujitaba 

Salem 

Revich

La tijaty 

Chance 

Valiant prince 

Off this list the 2 that stand out for me are anmaat and Revich who were both looking classy horses and improving fast last season ....but could be ground dependant ....but currently 12/1 and 50/1!!!!    That's gotta be worth a bit of antepost 

 

 

interesting richard     ive  got  a 1/5 of a pt     on both    Revich  50/1   and Emporio  40/1   NRNB     

[richard-westwood]

11 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

interesting richard     ive  got  a 1/5 of a pt     on both    Revich  50/1   and Emporio  40/1   NRNB     

That's a decent bet ....Will he get a run that's the problem but nrnb you cant go wrong 

[The Brigadier]

On 2/10/2022 at 2:08 PM, The Brigadier said:

Modern News runs in a 7F listed contest tomorrow at Meydan and I am led to believe that he will take in the Lincoln all being well after this with promising 7lb claiming apprentice Harry Davies provisionally booked. He wouldn't need to win tomorrow, in fact a running on placed effort would be ideal as he would then pick up no penalty for the Lincoln. 

I think its worth backing him now win only.

MODERN NEWS 1 point win @ 8/1 William Hill/Betfred/Unibet

Just an update on the big race. A few dropped out yesterday at the final declaration stage prior to the five day declaration stage. 
The Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial is this Saturday but the race has never thrown up the winner so may not have too much of an effect on the race itself although La Tihaty, the likely favourite, will no doubt shorten if able to oblige.

The money horses over the past fortnight have been the two I’ve put up in Modern News and Muthaby and I’m very happy with these two bets.

just got to get Cheltenham out of the way first ?

[The Brigadier]

On 2/10/2022 at 2:08 PM, The Brigadier said:

Modern News runs in a 7F listed contest tomorrow at Meydan and I am led to believe that he will take in the Lincoln all being well after this with promising 7lb claiming apprentice Harry Davies provisionally booked. He wouldn't need to win tomorrow, in fact a running on placed effort would be ideal as he would then pick up no penalty for the Lincoln. 

I think its worth backing him now win only.

MODERN NEWS 1 point win @ 8/1 William Hill/Betfred/Unibet

42 were left in at the 5 day stage today with the ground currently soft but with a drying week is likely to be perfect ground come the weekend. The two advised bets are both in and to be honest I wouldn't want to swap the pair for any others. As told a few weeks ago 7lb apprentice Harry Davies will ride Modern News whilst it seems Ciaran Fallon could be on board my other pick Mujtaba. The ante post gamble over the weekend was the Crisford horse Saleymm who comes here having impressively won twice on the all weather during the winter. It was good to see a couple of interesting runners in Sunray Major and Valiant Prince not being declared and we'll wait for the 48 hour declaration stage now to see where the two picks are drawn.

[calva decoy]

My wallet had its best ever day on a racecourse 7/8 years ago when a 30/40mph wind was blowing headlong down the Town Moor so picking horses with form over 10f in 8f races paid dividends , I picked MONDIALISTE in the big race who came 2nd at 20 or 25/1 who I backed each way , not sure if I'll be playing this Saturday but a horse with proven form on good to firm & with recent trends from a big yard & who is a 4 year old will most probably take the spoils .

 

[Zilzalian]

52 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

42 were left in at the 5 day stage today with the ground currently soft but with a drying week is likely to be perfect ground come the weekend. The two advised bets are both in and to be honest I wouldn't want to swap the pair for any others. As told a few weeks ago 7lb apprentice Harry Davies will ride Modern News whilst it seems Ciaran Fallon could be on board my other pick Mujtaba. The ante post gamble over the weekend was the Crisford horse Saleymm who comes here having impressively won twice on the all weather during the winter. It was good to see a couple of interesting runners in Sunray Major and Valiant Prince not being declared and we'll wait for the 48 hour declaration stage now to see where the two picks are drawn.

Shrewdie Haggis my a/p selection Boosala runs in the Listed mile race (3:10) so i smell a double here with Mujtaba.

[richard-westwood]

Computer has tackled this one as its a bit hard lol .....updated full ratings to 24 on card but bottom 2 ...23 24 are currently not in but wouldn't effect ratings currently anyway 

Revich   9.0   50/1 

United front  8.8  33/1 

Johan   8.7  25/1 

Modern news   8.4  

Brunch   8.2 

Scottish summit  7.9 

Irish admiral    7.7 

So chuffed to see my antepost selection come out top especially as I've got him ew so that looks a crazy price now ....

For me ...modern news sets the standard and looks the most likely "type"  ....but there's some crazy prices around him in ratings so I'm going to go for gold and go ew on johan and United front and see if I can start the flat season with a jackpot payout 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Computer has tackled this one as its a bit hard lol .....updated full ratings to 24 on card but bottom 2 ...23 24 are currently not in but wouldn't effect ratings currently anyway 

Revich   9.0   50/1 

United front  8.8  33/1 

Johan   8.7  25/1 

Modern news   8.4  

Brunch   8.2 

Scottish summit  7.9 

Irish admiral    7.7 

So chuffed to see my antepost selection come out top especially as I've got him ew so that looks a crazy price now ....

For me ...modern news sets the standard and looks the most likely "type"  ....but there's some crazy prices around him in ratings so I'm going to go for gold and go ew on johan and United front and see if I can start the flat season with a jackpot payout 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thescottishsun.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/8601584/racing-tips-doncaster-lincoln-michael-owen/amp/

[richard-westwood]

Just an observation .....I've noticed notre Bella bete has been heavily backed from 14 into around 8s ....but ....he beat united front 1.75 lengths on all weather last time and has been raised 5lb ....united front has a turf mark 12lb lower so effectively meets that same horse saturday 17 lb better off yet is 4x the price ????....??

Edited March 25, 2022 by richard-westwood

[DanV89]

27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Just an observation .....I've noticed notre Bella bete has been heavily backed from 14 into around 8s ....but ....he beat united front 1.75 lengths on all weather last time and has been raised 5lb ....united front has a turf mark 12lb lower so effectively meets that same horse saturday 17 lb better off yet is 4x the price ????....??

Fair point Richard. All i'd say in argument to that (just playing devils advocate), is that there is a reason the horse has a turf mark 12lb lower than the AW. All 5 of his wins have come on the AW, in fact he has only ever placed twice on turf in 26 runs. Conversely, Notre Belle Bete has some good turf form (only beaten 2 lengths by Poetic Flare no less) and is much more lightly raced having only had 9 career starts.

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

Fair point Richard. All i'd say in argument to that (just playing devils advocate), is that there is a reason the horse has a turf mark 12lb lower than the AW. All 5 of his wins have come on the AW, in fact he has only ever placed twice on turf in 26 runs. Conversely, Notre Belle Bete has some good turf form (only beaten 2 lengths by Poetic Flare no less) and is much more lightly raced having only had 9 career starts.

True ?....but wolv form translates well on good ground so if it comes up good Saturday I'd fancy his chances lol 

[black rabbit]

On 3/22/2022 at 5:36 PM, richard-westwood said:

Computer has tackled this one as its a bit hard lol .....updated full ratings to 24 on card but bottom 2 ...23 24 are currently not in but wouldn't effect ratings currently anyway 

Revich   9.0   50/1 

United front  8.8  33/1 

Johan   8.7  25/1 

Modern news   8.4  

Brunch   8.2 

Scottish summit  7.9 

Irish admiral    7.7 

So chuffed to see my antepost selection come out top especially as I've got him ew so that looks a crazy price now ....

For me ...modern news sets the standard and looks the most likely "type"  ....but there's some crazy prices around him in ratings so I'm going to go for gold and go ew on johan and United front and see if I can start the flat season with a jackpot payout 

got revich covered way back weeks ago and hortzada @ 50/1    { expect there to be a plunge on it]    

[richard-westwood]

On 3/22/2022 at 5:36 PM, richard-westwood said:

Computer has tackled this one as its a bit hard lol .....updated full ratings to 24 on card but bottom 2 ...23 24 are currently not in but wouldn't effect ratings currently anyway 

Revich   9.0   50/1 

United front  8.8  33/1 

Johan   8.7  25/1 

Modern news   8.4  

Brunch   8.2 

Scottish summit  7.9 

Irish admiral    7.7 

So chuffed to see my antepost selection come out top especially as I've got him ew so that looks a crazy price now ....

For me ...modern news sets the standard and looks the most likely "type"  ....but there's some crazy prices around him in ratings so I'm going to go for gold and go ew on johan and United front and see if I can start the flat season with a jackpot payout 

10 pt ew 28/1 ....pays,around 350 pts ....unexpected surprise ? 

[Trotter]

Nice one  Richard !

good start to the Flat ...... ?

[The Brigadier]

On 2/6/2022 at 9:35 PM, The Brigadier said:

It’s nearly five weeks to Cheltenham so now seems as good a time as any to have an in depth look at the flats first big handicap the Lincoln !

To be run on the straight mile at Doncaster on March 26th the handicap weights were released last week.

 

The first way to tackle the event is to narrow the 76 entries down. The most that can run is 22 and the last 9 runnings have seen the lowest rated horse as 96,96,97,97,98,96,93,90 and 90 (latest renewals first). You can see from those ratings that nowadays you’re unlikely to get a run if you’re rated in the early 90’s so let’s start by scrubbing out all the horses rated 93 and lower. That leaves us with 33 to concentrate on which is a much more manageable amount.

 

The weights are headed by William Knight’s smart Sir Busker whom I’m led to believe is been trained for the race. He has plenty of weight mind and is overlooked here.

Charlie Appleby has won the contest twice in the last five renewals and has two entered in Valiant Prince who has already won at Meydan this winter in a one mile turf handicap and Modern News who was unbeaten in three starts last season with his rating rising 15lb. If Appleby decides to run one then expect him to come in for considerable support but there’s no word as yet as to whether he will run one (apparently both are currently in Dubai and would near enough have to come straight off the plane to run here which he did with the gambled on Auxerre in 2019).

Last years race was won by the Gosden’s Haqeeqy with Michael Dodds’ Brunch chasing him home on his seasonal re-appearance. Brunch is 4lb higher now but could run well.

John Gosden saddled last years winner under apprentice Benoit De La Sayette (remember him?) and is represented this time around by Sunray Major who was last seen when flopping on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He’s lightly raced and another interesting runner whom Gosden said last week had just started cantering. If he made it to post he would be a very interesting runner. The Gosden camp also have Al Rufaa entered but he looks high enough in the handicap.

Anmaat is one of two Shadwell horses entered in the contest and is trained by Owen Burrows. He had a productive year last season winning three times and ending up finishing runner up in the Cambridgeshire. He’s 5lb higher than that run but is progressive and is yet another for my long short list!

Clive Cox is represented by Aratus, a winner of four of his five career starts whom has been gelded since we last saw him at Goodwood last August. He would be stepping up to a mile for the first time here were he to run but is again an interesting runner. Cox also has Dance Fever in the race (in the same ownership as top weight Sir Busker) but he looks in the handicappers grip.

Roger Varian has three entered in Father Of Jazz, Tinker Toy and La Tihaty. It’s the latter that looks the most interesting having run up a sequence of four wins on the all weather with his latest victory coming at Kempton last Sunday for which he will carry a 5lb penalty if taking his chance.

Simon and Ed Crisford have a brace of runners in Chance and Saleymm with preference for the latter who has won twice on the all weather last November. He is however up 10lb for his latest success and yet to prove he is as good on the turf as he is on a synthetic surface.

That brings me to the interesting trainer in this race. Step forward Newmarket based William Haggas who has won this competitive handicap a record four times with High Low (1992), Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and Addeybb (2018). The latter was his last runner in the race and it is obviously a race he likes to target if he has the right horse for the race. This year he has Boosala (last seen finishing 2nd on the all weather at Newcastle in December), Irish Admiral (flopped in the Cambridgeshire when last seen), Ametist and Mujtaba. It’s the last named that takes my eye here as an unbeaten Shadwell owned Dubawi gelding who looks pretty sure to end up better than a handicapper. He’s won all three of his starts in his short career as a three year old last season starting out at Chepstow in August and following up with victories at Chester the following month and in handicap company at Redcar in October on soft ground.

The last three winners of this race were all lightly raced four year olds hailing from big Newmarket operations having only run 5,4 and 5 times previously proving that if you’re smart enough you can overcome lack of experience.

I do know that he is cantering at Newmarket and that if things go his way in the next month and he pleases his trainer then he could easily take this in. If I knew for sure he was a definite runner I would be suggesting a decent bet here but as the race is some seven weeks away I can only suggest a small win only bet in race that I think we can re-visit much closer to the event besides that we’ve only got the small matter of Cheltenham to get out of the way first!

 

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 10/1 Bet365/William Hill/Coral/Betfred/Skybet/Boylesports

 

A disappointing race for our two selections with neither really getting into the race. It was a fiddly race which appeared to lack pace and although the winner Johan wasn't on my radar well done to those that did find him @richard-westwood. I suppose the stable change was a plus. I did think the one to take out of the race was the Tom Clover runner Rogue Bear, who missed the kick and was last at one stage on the near side. He ran on well to nick a place and is one firmly to keep in mind next time (possibly the Spring Mile at Newbury).