2022 Golf Tips

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Currently in a 9-way tie for 17th place; shame his first couple of rounds were so poor. Profit of 14 x stake on offer if I close out now but think I'll let it run.

Finished in a 6-way tie for 20th for a profit of 19.5 x stake so it was the right call to let it run.

[fd1972uk]

Scheffler being very good recently, Hovland looked good for a time being 2 shots up but in the end not enough. 

 

[Xtc12]

23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Finished in a 6-way tie for 20th for a profit of 19.5 x stake so it was the right call to let it run.

@harry_rag can you explain that bet always wanted to learn re: exchanges please.

[Xtc12]

Update on my US PGA Bets

Outlay : 88

Returns : 108

Profit/Loss : +20

** The PLAYERS this week, now do you go with the in form, not well known players or go with the not played very much superstars ??

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

@harry_rag can you explain that bet always wanted to learn re: exchanges please.

It's a spread bet on the player's finishing position. There are 2 versions of the market, the standard one where the maximum make-up is 70 (i.e. how ever badly the player does the bet is settled as if he finished 70th) and the "field maximum" version where, if he finishes plum last of 140 it's settled at 140. The former is less volatile as he can only come between 1st and 70th rather than 1st and 140th, this will be reflected in the prices.

The guy I backed last week was priced at 42-45, effectively an estimate that he would finish just outside the top 40. Thinking he would finish higher, I sold his finishing position at 42. Someone with the opposing view could've bought at 45.

My maximum win was 41 x stake if he won (as he'd have finished 41 places higher than the quote). My maximum loss was 38 if he finished 70th or worse. As it was, the bet made up at 23 for a profit of 19 x my stake. So I made a reasonable profit because he outperformed his quote.

Put at it's simplest, I won 1 x my stake for every place he finished higher than 42nd and would've lost 1 x my stake for every place he finished below that.

[Xtc12]

Think I'll go with form for "The Players" - usual free bet if your selection finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th

1/5 odds 1-11 places 

Scheffler @ 20\1

Matsuyama @ 20\1

Niemann @ 33\1

Hoge @ 80\1

Cameron Young @ 80\1

1 Pt E/W on each

MyGolfLife Open

1/5 odds 1-6 places

Bland @ 40\1

Wu @ 40\1

Jordan Smith @ 25\1

Lawrence @ 66\1 

Harding @ 30\1

1Pt E\W on each

All the best with your bets for the weekend.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Xtc12

[harry_rag]

4 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

1/5 odds 1-11 places 

Scheffler @ 20\1 - 35-37 (42-47)

Matsuyama @ 20\1 - 36-37 (44-48)

Niemann @ 33\1 - 42-44 (53-57)

Hoge @ 80\1 - 47-49 (62-64)

Cameron Young @ 80\1 - 48-50 (63-66)

1 Pt E/W on each

MyGolfLife Open

1/5 odds 1-6 places

Bland @ 40\1 - 41-43 (50-55)

Wu @ 40\1 - 45-48 (58-63)

Jordan Smith @ 25\1 - 36-38 (43-48)

Lawrence @ 66\1 - 43-46 (55-60)

Harding @ 30\1 - 36-39 (46-51)

I've added the finishing position quotes for interest (Max 70 with field maximum in brackets). See how many do better or worse than anticipated.

[MinellaWorksop]

Results Roundup;

StrikeRate: 1/19

Bank: -12.50pts

 

This week's event:

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Rory McIlroy 20/1 (each way)

Talor Gooch 66/1 (each way)

 

All prices Bet365 1/5 Top Eight.

[harry_rag]

38 minutes ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Results Roundup;

StrikeRate: 1/19

Bank: -12.50pts

 

This week's event:

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIPS

Rory McIlroy 20/1 (each way) 33-36 (42-46)

Talor Gooch 66/1 (each way) 43-45 (55-57)

 

All prices Bet365 1/5 Top Eight.

I won't do this every week but as you've only put a couple up! Will try and find a player I fancy a punt on as enjoyed keeping an eye on last week's pick.

[harry_rag]

2 against the field for me, Cameron Smith and Shane Lowry. Both among the RP's outright tips and given a favourable mention by the source I followed for last week's bet.

Smith to win at 42 and sell his FP at 38

Lowry to win at 50 and sell his FP at 41

Small win bet on the exchange plus the spread sells. I've stuck to the max 70 market as it's what I'm familiar with. The sell prices in the other market are 48 and 53.

[fd1972uk]

Players

Morikawa and horschel win only

Mygolf

Wiesberger, harding and coetzee win only

 

All used free bets. 

Think thats me. 

[fd1972uk]

Dad has went for mcilroy and speithnin players and burmester and weisberger in mygolf

[fd1972uk]

Guess they can try underwater golf, lol. 

Dont see a winner in mygolf now, far to many peoplenin front of my guys and a big catchup job. 

[fd1972uk]

Well. Done xtc again, pity smith just got pipped, coetzee just missed out too which was unfortunate, had only went win though. 

Hoge going well too, my guys way off. 

[MinellaWorksop]

Definitely been very stop-start in The Players.

Both of my selections look set to miss the cut.

Have to echo @fd1972uk in well done @Xtc12 with Smith in South Africa and got Niemann and Hoge in contention at The Players.

[Xtc12]

2 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Well. Done xtc again, pity smith just got pipped, coetzee just missed out too which was unfortunate, had only went win though. 

Was following this on Tour shot by shot, 5 players within 1 shot with 5 to play.

 

On 3/9/2022 at 3:35 PM, harry_rag said:

I've added the finishing position quotes for interest (Max 70 with field maximum in brackets). See how many do better or worse than anticipated.

Think this might have worked out ok in South Africa @harry_rag.

[harry_rag]

On 3/9/2022 at 3:35 PM, harry_rag said:

MyGolfLife Open

1/5 odds 1-6 places

Bland @ 40\1 - 41-43 (50-55) 31

Wu @ 40\1 - 45-48 (58-63) 25

Jordan Smith @ 25\1 - 36-38 (43-48) 2.5

Lawrence @ 66\1 - 43-46 (55-60) 9.5

Harding @ 30\1 - 36-39 (46-51) 25

 Result added in bold. All outperformed their opening quotes, 108 points profit if you'd sold all of their finishing positions, 159 if you'd played the "maximum" market.

 

[harry_rag]

On 3/9/2022 at 5:29 PM, harry_rag said:

2 against the field for me, Cameron Smith and Shane Lowry. Both among the RP's outright tips and given a favourable mention by the source I followed for last week's bet.

Smith to win at 42 and sell his FP at 38

Lowry to win at 50 and sell his FP at 41

Small win bet on the exchange plus the spread sells. I've stuck to the max 70 market as it's what I'm familiar with. The sell prices in the other market are 48 and 53.

Smith currently 7 under and tied 6th, Lowry 6 under and tied 8th. I've closed both bets out (at 12 and 16) for a total profit of 51 x stake.

I'm not usually one to cash out in running but it's a decent return and there's scope for it to evaporate if things go pear shaped for one or both of them. We'll see how wise it was after round 4!

[MinellaWorksop]

Well done @harry_rag with Cameron Smith grabbing the glory in The Players.

Be a quick turnaround this week with The Valspar Championships up next on the PGA Tour.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Well done @harry_rag with Cameron Smith grabbing the glory in The Players.

Cheers, it makes up for the slight loss from the decision to close out the FP sells! It was a nervy conclusion, watching the scores and seeing his price shorten and drift on the exchange.

[MinellaWorksop]

I think it was the wise move @harry_rag  to cash out. The way the weather was during the tournament it only takes a stray shot to go in the water at TPC Sawgrass and things could have been completely different. Long may the winning flow continue with this good angle you have mate.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MinellaWorksop said:

I think it was the wise move @harry_rag  to cash out. The way the weather was during the tournament it only takes a stray shot to go in the water at TPC Sawgrass and things could have been completely different. Long may the winning flow continue with this good angle you have mate.

I think there's a bit of beginners' luck at play to be fair, especially in terms of landing an outright winner, but I'll carry on looking for a bet or 2 each week. The cashout cost me a total of 10 points profit so I'm happy enough with that, there was more scope for a bigger loss than gain.

[harry_rag]

On 3/9/2022 at 3:35 PM, harry_rag said:

Scheffler @ 20\1 - 35-37 (42-47) 57

Matsuyama @ 20\1 - 36-37 (44-48) Void

Niemann @ 33\1 - 42-44 (53-57) 23.5

Hoge @ 80\1 - 47-49 (62-64) 37.5

Cameron Young @ 80\1 - 48-50 (63-66) 70 (89.5)

@Xtc12 Less emphatic here, 2-2 in terms of beating the prices. A 16 point loss had you sold them all (or a 12.5 point profit in the "no maximum" market).

On 3/9/2022 at 5:11 PM, harry_rag said:

Rory McIlroy 20/1 (each way) 33-36 (42-46) 37.5

Talor Gooch 66/1 (each way) 43-45 (55-57) 70 (89.5)

@MinellaWorksop I make that -31.5 or -30 had you sold their FPs.

[fd1972uk]

Well. Done harry rag. 

[Xtc12]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I make that -31.5 or -30 had you sold their FPs

Let's take it on the max 70

McIllroy finished T33, Gooch missed the cut.

Whats the Maths on those please.

[harry_rag]

6 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

Let's take it on the max 70

McIllroy finished T33, Gooch missed the cut.

Whats the Maths on those please.

Easiest first! Gooch missed the cut, as the maximum make up is 70 (anything worse than 70th place is still classed as 70th) the loss was 70 - the sell price of 43 = a 27 point loss (27 x whatever your chosen stake was).

McIlroy was in a 9 way tie for 33rd place so those 9 players effectively share 33rd to 41st place. His make up was 37.5 for a loss of 4.5 points on the sell price of 33. In the event of a tie you just add the position (33) to 0.5 x the number of tied players (4.5). Had he finished 33rd with no ties the bet would have broke even.

[harry_rag]

3 this week for me, in the Valspar.

Sell each of the following's finishing position (max 70 as usual).

C Bezuidenhout at 41 (won a bit on him the other week, tipped in the RP this week)

A Hadwin at 44 (should be a good course fit, now down to 42, judging from the blue on Odds Checker I think he may have been tipped up by one or more tipping services)

C Morikawa at 27 (course fit and the RP headline tip at just 11/1)

Maybe a week to back one or two players who didn't play all 4 days last at the weekend.

[fd1972uk]

Only a few small bets (mainly freebies).

Valspar

S burns

D johnson

M. Hughes ew

A wise ew

 

Steyn

G coetzee

J harding

O bekker

 

Dad has went burns and oosthuizen in US, Burmester and Veerman in SA

Edited March 17, 2022 by fd1972uk

[Xtc12]

Last week returns for me was 6 Pts on Jordan Smith and a free bet 

Valspar Championship - 1/5 odds 1-10 usual free bet criteria

Hovland @ 9\1

Burns @ 18\1

Morikawa @ 10\1

Kokrak @ 28\1

Tringale @ 50\1

Steyn City Championship - 1/5 1-6 

Smith @ 18\1 (Free Bet)

Sharma @ 30\1

Wu @ 40\1

Larrazabal @ 20\1

Lawrence @ 50\1

Usual Stakes of 1E/W

[Xtc12]

13 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Sell each of the following's finishing position (max 70 as usual).

@harry_rag What exchange is this on ?