davidmphill Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system 3-0 system comes up tops again, as I expected the UK games were fairly easy but Milan made hard work of it. Keep up the work Merlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Great Work - Merlin :clap I sort of mentioned this on the TP thread but look at these results they weren't just scraping home with a win :- TeamMWResultReading vs Southampton32-0Man Utd vs Fulham34-2Coventry vs Brighton32-0Newcastle vs Portsmouth32-0Watford vs Crewe34-1Arsenal vs Middlesboro37-0Huddersfield v M K Dons35-0Carlisle v Rushden & D'monds35-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system good innings guys...........very interesting. i may wait until the bets total around 50 until i throw my dough at it. will still follow on paper. keep it up! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Great Work - Merlin :clap I sort of mentioned this on the TP thread but look at these results they weren't just scraping home with a win :- Team MW Result Reading vs Southampton 3 2-0 Man Utd vs Fulham 3 4-2 Coventry vs Brighton 3 2-0 Newcastle vs Portsmouth 3 2-0 Watford vs Crewe 3 4-1 Arsenal vs Middlesboro 3 7-0 Huddersfield v M K Dons 3 5-0 Carlisle v Rushden & D'monds 3 5-0 :ok Blimey, it might be worth backing the home sides -1 on the handicap!:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ...... certainly an option worth considering David. I never really looked at that possibility, probably it only starts to jump out at you when it is tabulated as Andy has done.Great suggestion fella.;) Good to see you looking in too muppet, have started to put my cash on and it's been OK up to now, hope it continues.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Every week this thread goes on from strength to strength. Good work and lets hope it hammers the bookies up until the end of the season guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... thank you again kind Sir,we aim to please, not always possible, but constructive viewpoints are always welcome here.I now have to report the Unders situation now that all matches affecting the stats have ended. Poorer set of results today, but nevertheless still in profit and still have a positive yield, so can't be too bad! Under 2.5 Goal System. Total Staked 230 Total Returned 241.73 Yield 5.10 Winners 15 Losers 8 Strike Rate 65% Current Bank 111.73 Profit/Loss 11.73 So that's it again until the next round of matches, thanks for viewing and hope to see you drop by for a MW chat.Thanks.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... just been waiting of the Bundesliga games finishing to bring the 2-0 tracking games up to date. 2-0 Goals System - Tracking Only. Tottenham H 1.66 - Draw Chievo Verona 2.20 - Draw Sampdoria 1.66 - Lost Stuttgart 1.66 - Won Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 - Won Villarreal 1.72 - Won So honours even this week - 3 correct and 3 wrong.Definitely not as strong as the 3-0 system we are following further up this thread.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Nice one again, Merlin :clap If it helps I have these stats for MW :- TotalWinDrawLoss%MW (3 goal)1282267%MW (2 goal)392113554%MW (1 goal)8539252146%MW (overall)13668402850% 3-0 is the way to go IMHO :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Out to add that the table above is just for English top 4 divisions over the last 5 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... nevertheless you are turning out to be our team stats man Andy! Great to be able to turn to a set of meaningful figures and see just what has transpired over the past few weeks.I think we have a winner with the 3-0 system, don't want to jump the gun early or else someone is sure to say, "I told you so." Seems like a lifetime ago we started our whole investigation scenario, but we are still here, and still full of good old enthusiasm. Onward and upward my friend! Cheers!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Thanks Merlin - I've got myself organised for once and I'm getting hooked on excel :loon Looks like a quiet midweek for the english divisions - be interested to see the european 3-0 selections. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Updated spreadsheets for anyone who is interested...... http://www.megaupload.com/?d=PX3SQS4X Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system All the 3-0's for the upcoming week: 26-Feb-06Atletico MadridMálaga25-Feb-06ChelseaPortsmouth25-Feb-06Southend UnitedWalsall21-Feb-06Hereford UnitedAldershot Town My spreadsheet is starting to get quite large now (445 matches total), so will post any of my findings/analysis as I go along. I'm personally not convinced of the 3-0 system. Although it has a very high strike rate the returns don't appear to be massive, and 1 or 2 losses in a row will annihilate any winnings made so far (I'll post the exact figures tonight when I get home and have updated the odds for the weekend, but up until last week the return was only .84 units for flat 1 unit staking on 19 matches). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... thanks McGin, will catch up with these shortly.As far as the 3-0 system goes, one would not normally expect the return or profit to be too large, as most of the selections highlighted are well fancied teams usually, and prices will naturally be not too large.Why I think this system will be fruitful is because of the high strike rate, currently 86%, and the prices are not going to differ that much from what is being used at the moment, so providing the strike rate can be maintained I see no sharp downward fluctuation, and hopefully no immediate setback with the system.Profits are showing at nearly £48 on level £10 stakes but I still think that the current strike rate is the jewel in our crown.Only time will tell.Thanks for your input.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... also forgot to add that the odds quoted were all from Bet 365. I'm sure in every instance I could have got much better odds from Betfair, which in turn would uplift the profits a little further.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... thanks once again to Mcgin for the above as a double check. One small difference is Athletico Madrid do not qualify according to my sheets as the predicted score reads 3-1.Here is the full list:- 2-0 Goal System - Tracking Only. Coventry C 1.90 Reading 1.66 Brentford 1.61 Bristol C 1.90 Grimsby T 1.53 Shrewsbury T 1.80 Stockport Co 2.25 Woking 2.30 - WON -TUES York C 1.57 - WON - TUES Swansea C Fri 2.10 Birmingham C - 1.66 Werder Bremen 1.42 Valencia 1.25 Cagliari 2.40 Juventus 1.16 Hamburg 1.51 Cambridge U - Posponed ? Dagenham & R - Posponed ? Hereford U 1.80 3-0 Goal System. Chelsea 1.12 Southend U 1.50 Hereford U 1.70 - WON - TUES Under 2.5 Goal System. Derby Co/Plymouth A 1.65 Hull C/Wolves 1.57 Stoke C/Millwall 1.57 Accrington S/Morecambe - WON MONDAY A.Bielefeld/B.Dortmund 1.90 Wolfsburg/Hannover 96 1.75 Accrington S/Burton A - Sat 1.60 Hopefully another interesting weekend ahead.Have fun and thanks for tuning in!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Now, onto what I believe is the most reliable way to get a return from these spreadsheets. As I have mentioned before (post #249), the away predictions from the spreadsheets are woeful. In the data I have (445 matches), 116 were predicted as away wins. Of these, only 36 resulted in an away win (31%). The average odds offered for the matches is 2.65, and if you are able to lay the away side for even 10% higher then the available price (laying average 2.91, although you should be able to get a better price then this) you would have gotten a return of 16.19 units (5% yield). Incidentally the most lost through an away win would have been 3.95 units (Grays v Burton Albion) and the largest exposure was 6.93 units (West Ham v Sunderland) Due to the larger size of this sample, and the fact it would take several losses to wipe out the profit I think it is a more reliable method to return a profit then the 3-0 system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Interesting stuff McGin :clap have you looked into laying the away 3-0 predictions - this is a method I was thinking of employing . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Yep, it would have returned 9.11 points (5% yield). Strike rate of 91%. Better I think then the straight backing of the home team, although again 2 wins and its gone, but thats less likely when laying the away team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... OK I have no problem with that viewpoint Mac. Have you thought about monitoring this and presenting some stats by way of yield, winners, profit/loss etc. Would be interesting to see how this turns out.I'm open to anything that suggests there is something for us all inside these sheets.I'll see to the 2-0 and the 3-0 and the Unders, while you have a dabble with this laying suggestion.At the same time Kanga is taking care of the Times Predictor system, in conjunction with our efforts should be a united effort.How do you feel about the suggestion?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Cheers me dears :loon I thought it would be profitable. Sounds good to me Merlin - there's money to be made in them there hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Have you thought about monitoring this and presenting some stats by way of yield, winners, profit/loss etc. Isn't that what I have been doing :) But yes I will be monitoring this one on paper for the time being, but if it continues to show a profit will certainly be taking a piece of it. Interesting to note the trend of the "Lay Wray's Away's" system :rollin as shown in the diagram for the 116 bets.................. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Well good news, I found anotther 100 matches for the premiership & the championship which I had on my hard drive from way back at the start of december, so have added them into the spreadsheet. Results: Backing 3 - 0 (Aways not included) 28 matches Eligible 22 Correct (78.5% Strike) 28 Units wagered 4.48 pts profit 16% yield Laying Away for 3-0 28 Eligible 26 Correct (93%) 238.37 Units wagered 15.11 profit 6% yield Lay Wrays Aways 140 eligible 93 Correct (66%) 411.18 Units wagered 12.39 units profit 3% yield *Note that the laying units/yields are calculated based on returning 1 unit per bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system :ok You da Man :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... but there again Mac, those extra matches you have added, certainly lends weight to the 3-0 system, and still with a high strike rate.That statement you made further up about it only needing two consecutive losses to wipe out profits is incorrect.With stakes shown in my last stats for the weekend just gone as 10 per bet, and profit shown at 47.72 it would take nearly five consecutive losses to wipe out the profit, and althought not impossible, I hardly think it likely to happen the way that the results have shaped up these past few weeks.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Just bringing the stats up to date after last night's Accrington Stanley match which came good under the system rules for under 2.5 goals:- Total Staked 240 Total Returned 257.44 Yield 7.27% Winners 16 Losers 8 Strike Rate 67% Current Bank 117.44 Profit/Loss 17.44 Maybe this is the system you have got mixed up with McGin when you said it would take only a couple of losses to wipe out any profit.This is more believable as I myself am not yet convinced of the merits of this present system.Strike rate not big enough, and prices on the small side too!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 21, 2006 Share Posted February 21, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... just recapping on the woeful away record. Iv'e just been having a look back over the past few weeks predictions and there were only 16 successes out of the 61 matches I looked back on until I tired! So that is only a 26.22 % success rate for away predictions.So in that small sample looks as if there could be case for laying aways.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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