mcgin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Total liability is the total stake Merlin, so just under 47 units was the total liability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... where does the 47 units come in? In the summary you have 14 matches, so to win 1 unit on each that would be 14 staked,but I thought that the liability was stake * odds -1. Is this incorrect?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin, The liability is the amount you stand to lose (your stake) not the profit (your winnings) which Mcgin has set to win 1 unit with each bet. Some examples may help. If you back a team at 3.0 with stake of 1 unit and it wins you win 2 units. If you back a team at 1.5 with stake of 1 unit and it wins you win 0.5 units. For either of the above if the team you back loses then you lose 1 unit. If you lay a team at 3.0 to win 1 unit your stake (liability) is 2 units. If you lay a team at 1.5 to win 1 unit your stake (liability) is 0.5 units. When laying the larger the odds the bigger your liability, or the amount you stand to lose. It looks like Mcgin had to risk 46.79 units to win 14 units minus the losing liabilities of 4.26 to leave the profit of 5.74. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... yep! That's exactly what I said in post 364 above.The true lay liability is always stake * odds -1. I still cannot say with hand on heart, that I am a big fan of laying.Maybe I will take the plunge one day!:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... Under 2.5 Goals System.... Selections for this week ending 12th March:- Leyton O v Cheltenham T 1.60 WON Brighton & H A v Preston N E 1.70 WON Wrexham v Bury 1.60 WON Hartlepool U v Huddersfield T 1.86 Fri LOST Stoke C v Crystal P 1.83 Mon TO COME Hoping the system can progress and build on the two wins on Tuesday night.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... for those interested, I have e-mailed Michael Wray with a request that he might consider compiling sheets for some of those left out. Namely, all Scottish Leagues and also Le Championnat, so if and when I hear anything advantageous I will keep you advised.I hope that truly this can be done, as there is a rather large void as far as the Scottish teams are concerned, and I feel that by having Le Championnat to study, this will round up the Euro side of things quite nicely, and keep things tidy.Anyway I'll let you all know if anything might transpire.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Selections for the 3-0 Goals System for this week ending 12th March:- Birmingham C 2.10 DRAW Lincoln C 1.68 DRAW Real Betis 1.86 DRAW Altrincham 1.82 0-1 Man U 1.40 WON Let's hope that this little lot manage to do the biz.At least this week there are a few more selections to monitor.Cheers.;) Leeds deleted as a non qualifier, and Man U added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system For those interested, I got this e-mail reply back from Michael Wray earlier today:- Thanks for the email. I used to cover the French Championnat, but capacity restrictions a few years back meant I had to drop a league. The French one was receiving the least hits, so was sacrificed. Since then, I have greater capacity but opted to add the Conference (due to demand) instead of restoring the Championnat. I'm probably going to move the site up to the next level soon, and will give due consideration to adding France to the leagues covered. The Scottish Prem is a bit trickier. The template that I have developed does not fit the multiple-meeting league format. However, I do get regular requests to cover the SPL, so will look at developing a new template format at some point. I just had a quick look at the thread. I'll have to have a proper read later, but wow! Given that the system is ultimately just a mathematical extrapolation, albeit a relatively complex one, I would expect a human with requisite knowledge would always beat its accuracy. It's very flattering to have my sheets the subject of such a long thread though. Talk to you later. I better do some work and stop browsing personal email at the office! Cheers, Michael. So it looks as if he is doing a facelift and with perhaps some of our suggestions in mind.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Nice one Merlin! It good to see that MW is open to your suggestions and with his positive comments (not least about this thread) I think we can look forward to some more sheets in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... not bad going at all David and all for the price of an e-mail which only took minutes to send.He must have had Le Championnat at one stage but after shortage of space he brought in the Nationwide Conference in its place.He must have a few problems with the template for the Scottish though, as they have a strange system of playing their final few matches of the season,not straight forward.But if we can get at least Scottish Premier and Le Championnat I will consider something accomplished and well worthy of the extra effort.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... not a good week for the 3-0 system in general, if we had been going for draws, would have been great:- Total Staked 230 Total Returned 246.96 Yield 7.38% Winners 16 Losers 7 Strike Rate 70% Current Bank 116.96 Profit/Loss 16.96 So will be looking for some better results come this weekend.:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Better week for the unders system though! 3 wins out of 4 with one still to come.Also forgot to add 2 qualifiers from the Euro matches and both won. Total Staked 390 Total Returned 408.02 Yield 4.62% Winners 25 Losers 14 Strike Rate 64% Current Bank 118.02 Profit/Loss 18.02 So Stoke C still to come tonight, so fingers crossed for another win.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Well folks I don't have the time to be contributing to this thread any more. I am concentrating on developing my own systems and back testing others (I've just built a database with over 83,000 fixtures from 23 leagues which should help me considerably :)). I would love to back test the 3-0 system, so if any of you have the time to crack all the protection on the spreadsheets and reverse engineer the algortihm from them (it can be done, but I'm not willing to spend the time at present, maybe later down the line), or can persuade Michael to share it (i had no luck), then please do and I'll put it on my to do list. I will drop in every now and then to se how you're all getting on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ...OK Mcgin, sorry to lose your input on the thread, but it's not compulsory and I do understand that you may have bigger fish to fry! I'd just like to wish you luck with your new project, do feel free to pop in with some comments from time to time, as I will on your new thread.May you have every success fella!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... selections for this week's Under 2.5 goals system:- Sheffield W v Preston N E 1.70 Bournemouth v Yeovil 1.65 Treviso v Cagliari 1.65 Racing Santander v Valencia 1.68 Lecce v Parma 1.72 So these are what Michael's sheets have thrown out for us this week, looking for some good results.As always any and all comments always welcome.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... selections for this week's 3-0 Goal system:- Gravesend & Northfleet 1.45 Real Madrid 1.45 Woking were highlighted against Forest Green but I don't see their match anywhere, so I presume it's posponed.Anyone know anything about this match? So a poorer week last week for this system, gave it a jolt, but here we are another week another dollar!Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 18, 2006 Share Posted March 18, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... I guess by the lack of replies that the Woking match must not be taking place as I believe they have a match on Monday.Anyway I will leave the selection in for the time being and see just what happens.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... Considering it was a strange weekend for results the Unders system did not come out too badly :- Total Staked 460 Total Returned 489.64 Yield 6.44% Winners 30 Losers 16 Strike Rate 65% Current Bank 129.64 Profit/Loss 29.64 So onwards and upwards towards another week hoping always for a better performance.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi merlin, looking across the board I think it would be fair to say that most systems have not performed brilliant this weekend. We cant be winning all the time that would take all the fun out of it wouldn't it. :lol Thanks for the selections this week, looking forward to a more stable weekend hopefully. Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... hi LL nice to see another face, was beginning to think that there was a bout of the plague or perhaps even bird flu knocking around this thread!(LOL) Feel as if I have been in solitary confinement. Anyway great to have you aboard again, and thanks for those soothing comments. Seems as if most systems must have been hit this past weekend as you say, I am sick and tired of getting smacked by Wycombe, so remind me not to back these ever again! How is your laying going lately? Have you any good pointers for me in the laying world? I'm pretty new to this form of betting, so I need to be convinced! Cheers.:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system I have read what you have been saying on other threads, and you are right with what you say about the large amount of money at risk for what seams such a small amount of gains. I have been laying since the exchanges first opened (and before that on horses in the bookies by arbing out all the others to win leaving just the one I wanted to lay). I think with weekend that we have just had will make it a little clearer as while you are consistently winning your lays then its the easiest way of making money but throw in a few losers and the last 10 winning bets are out of the window. I personal like laying horses but only at a maximum of 2-1, with laying you are always taking 5 steps forward and 3 back.The other thing I was looking into but not much info yet is this Asian handicapping thingy where apparently there is no such thing as a draw which may be if some use to us, will look into it further. Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 20, 2006 Share Posted March 20, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... funny you should mention that LL, I did a little experimenting with Asian Handicaps a while back, but seemed to drift away towards what I thought was bigger fish to fry at that time.Had some success with this with no particular system in mind, so if we can carve one out of here somewhere either between Times Predictor or Michael Wray's sheets or a mixture of both, then it may be advantageous to return to Asians ready armed.Food for thought once again eh!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... latest results for the 3-0 Goals system:- Total Staked 240 Total Returned 261.25 Yield 8.85% Winners 17 Losers 7 Strike Rate 71% Current Bank 121.25 Profit/Loss 21.25 So still holding it's own, and hope this trend continues.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brandy65 Posted March 21, 2006 Share Posted March 21, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi All. Did perform well on CS in Championship with 5 CS according to my sheet. Or am I wrong Merlin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 22, 2006 Share Posted March 22, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... hi there brandy65 and welcome to this thread on the Michael Wray spreadsheets.The thread started out checking correct scores but was found to be not a sound method for making best advantage of the info spread throughout these sheets.From time to time quite a few correct scores come good, but we spread our wings a little and developed into tracking all scores 3-0 and over which seems to be acquitting itself quite well at the moment.Not a money gusher, but steady profit in the main. So the figures presented above is the result of 3-0 selections,and when we mention this score,we don't mean they have to win 3-0, but just to come in as home winners be it whatever the score.It was found that by taking these scores very often the home win came good.So it is with this view that we track the current system.Feel free to re read the thread and ask any further questions that may spring to mind.Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 23, 2006 Share Posted March 23, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... the 3-0 Goals system selections for this week Sat/Sun 25th/26th Mar. MANCHESTER U - 1.22 NOTTS.F. - 1.65 CARLISLE U. - 1.57 SCHALKE 04 - 1.47 A C MILAN - 1.71 All odds taken from Betfair. Looking towards getting some good results this weekend.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 24, 2006 Share Posted March 24, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Selections this week Sat 25th March for under 2.5 goals system:- Sunderland v Blackburn R - 1.66 Yeovil T v Tranmere R - 1.60 Northampton T v Notts Co - 1.60 Duisburg v Bayern Munich - 1.95 Racing Santander v Zaragoza - 1.66 Looking at the prices, Duisburg looks to be the weak selection here, but they all qualify so it stays included.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 26, 2006 Share Posted March 26, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... not a bad weekend for the Under 2.5 goals system for this weekend:- 3 winners and 2 losers :- Total Staked 510 Total Returned 537.93 Yield +5.48% Winners 35 Losers 16 Strike Rate 69% Current Bank 127.93 Profit/Loss £27.93 So contrary to some earlier thoughts, this is still managing to keep its head above water.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 27, 2006 Share Posted March 27, 2006 Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system I definitely think that there is a bout of Asian bird flu knocking about on this thread, judging by the lack of viewers willing to air their views on what is a most promising system in the making.Not lots of selections but with a 72% strike rate and 10.94% yield it's looking OK. Latest position for this weekend just gone:- Total Staked 290 Total Returned 321.73 Yield 10.94% Winners 21 Losers 8 Strike Rate 72% Current Bank 131.73 Profit/Loss + £31.73 As usual, any and all comments always welcome even to past critics of the system in its earlier days.Cheers.Merlin.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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