Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... you'd be far better off sticking your £27.95 on some of the tips on this forum, otherwise it's giving your money away.I think at some time or other we have all been guilty of sending our hard earned cash for something that sounded infallible, only to find out later it was no better than any other so called tool on the market.Stick to your guns Dave C and have a solid bet instead.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... OK the first set of predictions thrown out by Michael's sheets for the New Year:- Chelsea Crystal P Luton T Q.P.R. Reading Colchester U Accrington S Burton A Hereford U Scarborough So it's eyes down and look in! :hope

[callpane]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin. Just read this thread. The teams that have been selected, how do you bet them? You say over 2, is that over two goals for the game or only for the team highlighted? Am i being thick here???

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ....hi Calpane and welcome to the thread.Message 118 goes somewhere towards what the system is all about.The selected teams above for today were taken from Michael Wray's match predictions, and all teams selected were predicted to win 2-0,3-0, 4-0 etc so anything over 2 goals were taken as the selections, not to win at those scores, but as straight wins and separate bets.Hope that this clarifies the situation.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... not a good day for the system in general methinks.Mind you I did not fancy Luton or Q.P.R. to start with, but had to follow system guidelines. Only four from the ten obliged so better to sink into oblivion until the next time!:\

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... F A Cup matches play havoc with this weekend's selections, only two being highlighted.Iv'e starred selections with a * to denote stronger chance of the win. Peterborough U * Cambridge U Euro Picks:- Deportivo (A) Barcelona (A) Fiorentina (A) Mallorca A C Milan * Empoli Inter Milan (A) Roma (A) So it will be interesting to see how these perform.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... eventually decided to have a go with Peterborough U at 1.75 against a poor Rushden & Diamonds side.So had a good punt and a saver on the draw!:hope

[daftpegasus]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Merlin Where are you getting your data that lets you decide that those two matches have a stronger chance to win? Is it that Michael system has predicted a better than 2 goal victory - or are you using other factors to influence your decision? Good work in keeping this thread going - we are reading it and taking an active interest. DP

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... hi there Daftpegasus and welcome to the thread, nice to see a new face. You are spot on with your assumption, Michael's spreadsheets gave both teams as 3-0 win's in the predictions, and having backtracked a little, it is fair to say that those teams forecast to win 3-0 have shown a greater tendancy to win their respective matches.So that is why they got the nod ahead of some of the others.There is still more than plenty to investigate within these spreadsheets, for example Over and Unders, so I am still looking into these and will comment later on my findings.Cheers.:)

[daftpegasus]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Thanks Merlin I too have noticed that teams predicted to win by 3 goals have nearly always been winners whilst the two goal difference seems to be near perfect some weeks and terrible others. Might try an accumulator on his 3 goal teams since I assume that the single prices are likely to be quite low. Start with P'Boro and Milan this weekend.:hope DP

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ..... certainly worth a shot there fella. Might even make a nice double also.Got some support for Panathinaikos today, so got on them at 1.24 with Betfair as price seemed quite reasonable.Be lucky!;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ... all in all, a mixed bag with the selections highlighted as 2-0 wins. Out of the ten selections there were five correct = 50% so again no great shakes there.What was rather pleasing though, was both the predictions outlined as 3-0 wins, both won, Peterborough and A C Milan to give a 2.17 double for those who took this.It appears to me that in the few short weeks the 2-0 system has been tracked, it's been a wee bit erratic to say the least, one week excellent and the next week just as poor or average. I think that I will track only those predictions which are 3-0 and above for this coming weekend, and see if there is room for improvement.;)

[aliando]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

... all in all, a mixed bag with the selections highlighted as 2-0 wins. Out of the ten selections there were five correct = 50% so again no great shakes there.What was rather pleasing though, was both the predictions outlined as 3-0 wins, both won, Peterborough and A C Milan to give a 2.17 double for those who took this.It appears to me that in the few short weeks the 2-0 system has been tracked, it's been a wee bit erratic to say the least, one week excellent and the next week just as poor or average. I think that I will track only those predictions which are 3-0 and above for this coming weekend, and see if there is room for improvement.;)

theres certainly some potential though with a bit of thought and knowledge to back up selections and pick the best. :clap good work lads!

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... maybe you are right Aliando, perhaps may be just as well to persevere and keep highlighting the 2-0's for a little longer, after all the tracking has not been in operation all that long.I can always ** those 3-0 predictions as I did for this weekend.I'm opening another thread on the Times Newspaper predictor and will track these in tandum.;)

[mcgin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Merlin, I've been looking at the 2-0 results and I think when the price for the match is less then evens the spreadsheet has some solid results. I'll post the details once I get a chance to pull them together

[daftpegasus]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system I'm with you Merlin on the 3 goal results. Fairly low odds but when part of an accumulator they start to add up. mcgin - interesting little twist on the system. Would be very interested to see the results of your analysis. DP

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... well done there Mac, good to have another pair of eyes and indeed another viewpoint.If we continue to pool our knowledge and findings on the spreadsheets, I'm sure that we will get a fairly healthy system. Look forward with interest on your findings. With you on your thoughts too DPeg, there will not be as many highlighted but on the other hand, not so many losers.Your thoughts also very much appreciated.See my thread on The Times Predictor too!;)

[mcgin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

Stake	10
P/L	56.565
Bets	30
Wins	24
Losses	6
Strike Rate	0.8
Yield	0.18855

That gives the results for only backing when the price is less then 1.9. At £10 per bet

[aliando]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

Stake	10
P/L	56.565
Bets	30
Wins	24
Losses	6
Strike Rate	0.8
Yield	0.18855

That gives the results for only backing when the price is less then 1.9. At £10 per bet

figures look good :ok

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... certainly do, better than what I thought, although there have been times when results were very good using the 2-0's.Trouble is lack of consistency when all are backed.These figures back up your thoughts Mac on the 1.9 and below theory.Good stuff.;)

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system The more I think about this "system" the less I like it. My main concern is that the system is a black box, it takes the results in, performs some calcs, and them gives predictions. We have no knowledge of what these calculations are are. For all we know, Mr Wray could be making his predictions based on the zodiac sign of the club managers, or adding the numerical value of the club name and dividing by 7. It's not likely, but no one can say for sure. I think we are now in danger of data mining, where if you look at a set of data long enough you'll find relationships, but there is no reason to think that there is a link between the event. Classic example for this, is the bigger the fire, more fireman on site, more fire damage. If you look at the numbers this is true, but there is no reason to think the firemen cause the damage. These files are good punters tools for tracking form etc, but they have consistantly failed to deliver a safe profit with their predictions, and it's time I think to forget about using his prediction algorithm to making money. It hasn't worked, I don't see why trying to work on only a very narrow subset of the data, has any statisical value.

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... I think that is a bit of a blinkered view you have there Foolsgold! Some of your comments are way beyond solid reasoning and obviously there is some bias towards that which cannot easily be explained.Because of lack of knowledge in the 'inner workings' of Michael's spreadsheets, you appear to condemn them out of hand as being pure bunkum.We have set out to experiment with possible systems, and have made no claim to fame as yet, to this being the 'Holy Grail'.What we ARE looking at is ways to find and experiment with the data within these sheets, and possible ways to find consistent winners.Tracking has been used, and there appears to be enough interest in the thread to suggest there is always a thirst for knowledge by punters within these portals.I myself enjoy a challenge and will always continue to strive to find new methods be it with or without, the inbuilt knowledge of spreadsheets presented by others.Thanks for your viewpoint but disagree entirely with your remarks.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

For all we know, Mr Wray could be making his predictions based on the zodiac sign of the club managers, or adding the numerical value of the club name and dividing by 7. It's not likely, but no one can say for sure.

I'm pleased that our forefathers did not think this way when the wheel was invented.:rollin

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

Some of your comments are way beyond solid reasoning and obviously there is some bias towards that which cannot easily be explained

Everything I have written is factually correct, what are you referring to ?

you appear to condemn them out of hand as being pure bunkum

Not at all, I've spent a lot of time with these files, and based on the evidence from their performance I have come to the conculsion that they do not deliver a safe and reliable means of making profit. There is no evidence to show they do.

What we ARE looking at is ways to find and experiment with the data within these sheets, and possible ways to find consistent winners

I think we have moved beyond that, we are now slicing the data into smaller and smaller subsets to try and find evidence to support the theory that they can provide winners. By taking it to 2-0 and then 3-0 winners we have reduced the data sample to a a size, that can't provide any meaningful data.

I'm pleased that our forefathers did not think this way when the wheel was invented.

The invention of the wheel was science, the people doing it, understood what they were doing, unfortunetly what we're doing on these sheets isn't. We are now seeking to interpert data without knowing it's source or it's workings. That ain't science mate, that's closer to religion. Mr Wray has a rating system of some kind, which he uses to predict matches, the evidence of over half a season shows it does not work. I think there is a danger of having spent a lot of time on something, being unwilling to give it up as a failure, and keeping looking deeper and deeper for relationships, that may not have any value. If you look at a set of numbers long enough they will tell you what you want to find. I don't think doing this thread or working on these files was a mistake, they may have worked and been profitable. They don't I think it's time to move on and look for something else to deliver profit. Also, in fairness to Mr Wray I don't think the prime purpose of these files is as a gambling aid. They are fans files

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... well Mr.Foolsgold you are entitled to your opinion obviously.

These files are good punters tools for tracking form etc, but they have consistantly failed to deliver a safe profit with their predictions, and it's time I think to forget about using his prediction algorithm to making money. It hasn't worked, I don't see why trying to work on only a very narrow subset of the data, has any statisical value.

..... but looking at the above quote, it depends very much on the way that the sheets have been used and interpreted.There is no mention anywhere on these forums that you have been following his sheets or anything branching from them.

I think we have moved beyond that, we are now slicing the data into smaller and smaller subsets to try and find evidence to support the theory that they can provide winners. By taking it to 2-0 and then 3-0 winners we have reduced the data sample to a a size, that can't provide any meaningful data.

We are not attempting to provide meaningful data, but attempting to provide meaningful results, and I think that no matter how small the original data is 'chopped up' this becomes totally irrelevant when McGin's records show 24 wins from 30 bets with only 6 losses when backing at 1.90 and below.I think it would be foolhardy to totally disregard these stats out of hand because of mention of slicing up the data and it becoming smaller and smaller. Let those that want to experiment further, have a fair run FG, take off our tin hats,rise from our trenches,throw down our weapons, and proceed in a calm and Gentlelike manner towards a common goal and purpose, not to defeat ourselves, but applaud those willing to seek the furtherance of profits no matter what avenue they persue.The enemy is neither me nor you, but those of the camel coat brigade.Cheers.:cheers

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... looks like the shooting has died down, the OK Coral is looking peaceful, and our man with a mission is about to continue much in the same vein as Wyatt Earp went about his business.:lol OK punters, just what has Mr.Wray's spreadsheets got for us this weekend? Iv'e continued with the 2-0's for tracking, and the 3-0's I have highlighted with ** as having a better chance of the win :- Arsenal Aston Villa Charlton A Cardiff C Norwich C (A) Gillingham Tranmere R (A) Barnsley (A) Man U (A) Chelsea (A) EURO. Barcelona ** Deportivo Getafe Villarreal (A) Fiorentina Inter Milan ** Juventus As usual always interesting to track,hope we may be able to bag some this week.Comments and constructive suggestions always welcome.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... forgot to mention that last week's highlighted 3-0 selections, Peterborough U and A C Milan both won their respective matches, so a good start there.:ok

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... just as a matter of interest Barcelona currently 1.21 and Inter Milan 1.20 with Betfair, so prices appear to be still holding since I dabbled on both of these the other day.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... did you manage to get your files updated Kanga? If you have any problems with this give me a shout, otherwise will take it that they are now OK.Hoping for some good results today.;)

[Kanga]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Merlin, Yes thanks, after a little bit of playing around :unsure I got the past results off the BBC Sport website - after entering all the data I somehow managed shut it down without saving the updates :wall but all seems to be ok now. Just a quicky - are the best picks 3-0 or does 3-1 qualify - reason I ask is that Reading were 3-0 but after the update they are 3-1 ?