Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... I started off including the 3-1's etc, but found that it was more consistent if they were left out.So have not bothered to include these recently.Does not mean to say they cannot be tracked, nothing is written here in stone!;)

[daftpegasus]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Both Inter and Barca win - so although a small price, a double none the less and more money in the kitty. DP

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ..... yeah both selections won again although slim victories.Nevertheless for those who say there is no money to be made in Michael's sheets, not bad two small doubles in two weeks, small but wonderful! Shall report on the others when all the results are to hand.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Arsenal -WON Aston Villa - LOST Charlton A - WON Cardiff C - WON Norwich C (A) - DRAW Gillingham - WON Tranmere R (A) - DRAW Barnsley (A) - LOST Man U (A) - LOST Chelsea (A) - WON 5 from 10 correct EURO. Barcelona ** - WON Deportivo - LOST Getafe - DRAW Villarreal (A) - LOST Fiorentina - WON Inter Milan ** WON Juventus - WON 4 from 7 correct. So all in all, looks like quite a mixed bag.I suppose when you think that 6 of the selections were away, it's hardly surprising that only Chelsea won away from home.Still it's very pleasing to see the ** selections come good for a second week, and appear to be more stable than the 2-0 selections.Will be back later with this week's selections.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... OK here we go again, looking for better results this week:- Tracking 2-0's Birmingham C Coventry C Boston U Bristol R Mansfield T Notts Co. Accrington S Stevenage B York C EURO. Cagliari Livorno (A) Inter Milan (A) Zaragoza Ascoli 3-0's ** CHELSEA (A) ** A C MILAN ** JUVENTUS ** Looks a decent treble there but looking at some of the 2-0's thrown out by MW's spreadsheets, some look a little rough!:lol

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... Some good stuff from these spreadsheets in tonight's matches (Tues). The sheets gave these:- Predicted - Brentford 2 Notts F 2 , Actual 1-1 Predicted - Colchester U 2 Bristol C 1 , Actual 3-2 Predicted - Darlington 1 Grimsby T 1 , Actual 0-0 Predicted - Shrewsbury T 1 Mansfield T 1 , Actual 0-0 Would have made nice little 4 timer if followed.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Earlier in this thread there was remarks made as to the workings of M.Wray's prediction engine,just what constituted its makeup.I dug the following out of the archives:- The prediction engine uses weighted averages of past results between the teams in question, current form and a smoothing factor to force realistic scores (essentially a weighted distribution). At the beginning of the season, before results are entered, past results are driving the major elements. Once results come in, there will be large swings for the first few weeks. Cheers, Michael. So maybe this sheds a little light for those who need to know the workings behind his sheets.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Tracking 2-0's Birmingham C - WON Coventry C - WON Boston U - WON Bristol R - WON Mansfield T - WON Notts Co.- WON Accrington S - WON Stevenage B - LOST 0-1 York C - LOST 1-2 EURO. Cagliari - Wed - WON Livorno (A) - Wed - DRAW Inter Milan (A) - Wed - WON Zaragoza - LOST 0-2 Ascoli - WON 3-0's ** CHELSEA (A) **DRAW A C MILAN ** WON JUVENTUS ** WON Not bad for a system born out of these spreadsheets where it was 'mooted' earlier that they had no statistical value.:lol 12 winners from 17 selections and 2 correct from 3 in the stronger selections category,not bad going and certainly worth closer scrutiny.;)

[davidc]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Excellent results Merlin. Have you got updated total results and yields for each prediction type, ie 2-0, 3-0 or Euro, since you have been posting selections? The spreadsheets certainly are well set up and I much prefer their correct scores to those from BG which seem to be very limited but I have not checked against TP yet. I have updated the sheets and whilst doing so was struck by the number of correct scores that kept croping up and was wondering if you had given any thought to a 'correct score' system. Perhaps you have already tracked some of the correct scores - if you have what are these results like?

[muppet77]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Quote:

The prediction engine uses weighted averages of past results between the teams in question, current form and a smoothing factor to force realistic scores (essentially a weighted distribution). At the beginning of the season, before results are entered, past results are driving the major elements. Once results come in, there will be large swings for the first few weeks.

the sheets DO use the last 5 home and away weighted form, weighted last 5 seasons scores for the fixture, and a distribution of season's scores to predict the match score for a particular game. nothing new, but certainly not linked to zodiac signs as someone suggested! :lol i am interested, and i'm sure others may jump on the bandwaggon when they see that the results start to look promising. has anyone looked at yield yet on the selections, i think that's the next job.

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system If you look back a little David, I believe McGinn was doing an exercise on how each of the two categories were performing i.e. the 2-0's and also the 3-0's.From memory, the 2-0's were a trifle erractic, whilst the latter 3-0's were performing much more steadily.Perhaps you may wish to update McGins earlier records as I have quite a bit on at the moment.Cheers.;)

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system .... thanks also for your feedback Muppet, always very welcome! Interesting to see your comments back up the archives I pulled off recently when it was suggested that Michael Wray's Prediction Engine was perhaps made up of the zodiac sign of the club managers or indeed the numerical value of the club name divided by 7.Also interesting to note that you think that these sheets have possibilities for perhaps even making some money, certainly the signs are indeed encouraging! Again I do believe McGinn was churning some figures relating to yield etc, but alas he seems to have fallen by the wayside.Any takers here?;)

[davidc]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

Stake	10
P/L	56.565
Bets	30
Wins	24
Losses	6
Strike Rate	0.8
Yield	0.18855

That gives the results for only backing when the price is less then 1.9. At £10 per bet

An 18.8% yeild looks promising and although only over a short series of bets I believe that this needs to be tracked further.

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ..... yet again, when ever I see these figures brings a smile to my face.Certainly looks impressive, but the 2-0's seem to go a little pearshaped every so often, and are not quite so consistent as the 3-0's from theshort time these have been followed.Well done there David.Cheers.

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Wasn't going to post on this thread again, as you guys all seem to be having fun, but there have been so many comments over the past two pages sniping at my earlier remarks that i'm going to come back to this

the sheets DO use the last 5 home and away weighted form, weighted last 5 seasons scores for the fixture, and a distribution of season's scores to predict the match score for a particular game. nothing new, but certainly not linked to zodiac signs as someone suggested!

Let me be crystal clear here, you do not know the exact forumlas that Mr Wray is using to make his predictions. It's all very well for Mr Wray to talk about weighted form, and past season results. But you don't know how he is weighting it. You are trusting money to a forumla that you don't fully understand, based on a data sample that is statisically without meaning. I think everything in this paragraph to be factually unquestionable, unless Mr Wray gives you access to his source code. If you're having fun, and making money then good luck, but there is no evidence to suggest it's a robust or sustainable profit, or that his rating systems can deliver in the long term.

[muppet77]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system how do YOU know, that i do not know?

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Because Mike has consistantly refused to provide anyone with access to the workings of his files for the past 4 years. But I gave myself an out in my post when I said

unless Mr Wray gives you access to his source code.

Has Mike done this ? If he hasn't, then you are working with a formula you don't fully understand. If you can't independtly replicate Mikes picks with sample data, then you are working and investing money (at least partialy) blind. Are you really comfortable doing this ?

[mcgin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Foolsgold, there is a way to look at the source code for the sheets, so don't be too dismissive just yet. I'm not going to say how to do it as Michael clearly doesn't want it in the public domain, but anyone with a bit of excel know how and a bit of experience in computers can check it out. I haven't delved into the sheets to determine how exactly the picks are made, but I intend on doing it when I get the time. Also, working with a formula that we don't fully understand is much like following many of the tips on this forum that don't publish their systems. So that's the way I look at it for the time being.

[muppet77]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system cheers mcgin :ok

[Kanga]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hi Foolsgold, I can understand to a certain degree the concern you raise - Personally I prefer to use a 3 prediction combination method as in Merlins TP strategy thread. But I don't fully understand your concern below :-

You are trusting money to a forumla that you don't fully understand, based on a data sample that is statisically without meaning.

I can understand your concern if the results were produced with some form of random element - but surely the data sample of past results isn't without meaning and is the basis of other prediction engines ?

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Hello there again Foolsgold, did not expect to see you back! You surged in here on the last occasion certainly with both barrels blazing, and proceeded to tell everyone it was time to stop investigating Michael's sheets as they would never make money.You also said that Michael provided these not as a gambling aid, but merely as FANS FILES.Yet when I look back at the archives who did I find experimenting with the self same files, I believe it was you.So although you continue to bombard us with this unknown quantity relating to the Prediction Engine workings, at that time you accepted the same situation.Seems to me that it was just one episode of destructive criticism.I even extended the olive branch as a token of friendship, but this was completely ignored.If you feel that you can contribute constructively to this thread, then by all means do come back. Meanwhile leave the interested parties here to continue their daily experimentation into the further avenues of possible profits.;)

[davidc]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system The way I look at it is that I don't need to know how the sheets work only that they do, although it would certainly be interesting to see how they work. As long as the sheets help to provide winners I'm happy to use them.

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

Hello there again Foolsgold, did not expect to see you back! You surged in here on the last occasion certainly with both barrels blazing, and proceeded to tell everyone it was time to stop investigating Michael's sheets as they would never make money.You also said that Michael provided these not as a gambling aid, but merely as FANS FILES.Yet when I look back at the archives who did I find experimenting with the self same files, I believe it was you.So although you continue to bombard us with this unknown quantity relating to the Prediction Engine workings, at that time you accepted the same situation.Seems to me that it was just one episode of destructive criticism.I even extended the olive branch as a token of friendship, but this was completely ignored.If you feel that you can contribute constructively to this thread, then by all means do come back. Meanwhile leave the interested parties here to continue their daily experimentation into the further avenues of possible profits.;)

FFS, this post saddens me, I didn't surge in anywhere with anything blazing. I made reasoned and responsible critisim of a method that I have real concerns about. Merlin, you are correct I did spend time with these files myself a while back, that should show you so I'm not questioning them without having knowledge of them. You say I accepted the same situation, correct I'm happy to have a "black box" system if it delivers consistant results . With any decently sized data sample it does not. You have a black box system, that does not deliver consistant results, so you trawl throught smaller and smaller subsets of the predictions (3-1 wins ??) looking for winners. The data samples at this size are too small to provide for meaningful results. You seem unwilling to admit failure and move on. My critisim was perfectly constructive, you sem to have a bit of an issue with people disagreeing with you. I'm wrong lots of times, no problem admitting it. You however decided to snipe at my comments again and again over the last two pages of these thread, I'm happy for everything I do to be questioned, because improves things. I tried to make my points lightly with humour, but obviously not the right audience here. The comment about the "olive branch" is strange, it seems to be "agree with me and be my friend, or disagree shut up and go away". I think it would be irresponisble for me as a PL mod, not to air my very serious concerns about the "methodology" being employed here. I would hate to se a young punter come on here and think there was some serious data behind this and place bets on it.

[muppet77]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system just take it from me, there is a straightforward, no frills calculation that takes into account just the factors that merlin quoted, as the man wray said himself! you are correct, we should use them as long as they keep providing winners!

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

The way I look at it is that I don't need to know how the sheets work only that they do, although it would certainly be interesting to see how they work.

Correct David, problem is these sheets don't work as designed, trawling through them to find smaller subsets and using them in a way that Mike didn't design is not very valid and is very dangerous to your money. What i was doing by posting on this thread is making sure there was a "health warning" on it for others. I've fulfilled my responsbility now. On every post I've made here I've wished you good luck with this, as I've aired my doubts, done my duty. For the rest of you it's "Caveat emptor" and have a nice day.

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system ..... there apparently seems little point in discussing this any further with you Foolsgold, your unpleasant manner, and heavy handiness as a Mod comes across loud and clear,there is no air of friendliness, nor is there any indication of you being prepared to see others point of view, although it is clear that everyone on this thread completely disagrees with your comments and views. Foolsgold wrote:

On every post I've made here I've wished you good luck with this, as I've aired my doubts, done my duty. For the rest of you it's "Caveat emptor" and have a nice day.

As for the above, I see neither any wishes of good luck in past threads, nor do I see any honour in the so called duty you say has been carried out.In fact your actions need reporting to Paul Ross in the interests of fair play for punters and sporting democracy!I thought that being a Moderator would have duly promoted this!:\

[AJ]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

As for the above, I see neither any wishes of good luck in past threads, nor do I see any honour in the so called duty you say has been carried out.In fact your actions need reporting to Paul Ross in the interests of fair play for punters and sporting democracy!I thought that being a Moderator would have duly promoted this!

From of my post on this page

If you're having fun, and making money then good luck

[merlin]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system

On every post I've made here I've wished you good luck with this,

You can't even remember what you type!:rollin

[georgej]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system I hear prada have a sale on if you need 'em boys :ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Michael Wray Spreadsheet system Can I just say one thing first and foremost. All of the PL Team including foolsgold do not get put on report by me, nor do I protect them if I think they are wrong. First of all they are members, that gives them the right to express their opinion despite the "mod tag" and that's how it has always been. I have never said that mods should act a certain way, they are not paid, so why should they? They help me run the site and attempting to "report them" is a little childish imo. However, back to the matter at hand. Foolsgold has expressed his opinion, but as with all of the world, we don't always agree. I would say that nobody has come out all guns blazing, but maybe he doesn't really need to be involved if you're all happy, but he is a member and has a right to express his opinion. PL doesn't have big rows, very rare, that's because there are no egos here. So, let's stop the silly comments and get back to picking winners. ;) Am I protecting a mod here? Absolutely not, my past history should let you know that I have banned and taken away their status before now because of them not doing things the right way, but foolsgold is simply expressing his opinion, but it has been taken the wrong way. Remember you cannot hear the tone of text, ie their voice to ascertain the true nature of any post. ;)